Latest projection shows Hurricane Arthur battering the Outer Banks on the Fourth of July

WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm surge will also be a huge factor if the storm follows the predicted path.

Bastardi writes:

[In the] latest ECMWF,  it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters!  Central pressure 966 millibars.

See the graphic:

 

Screen shot 2014-07-02 at 2.39.04 PM

panel_c_8

Simulated radar path:

hrrr_current_east

Path from Bastardi:

Arthur_1

[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anthony]

Latest from NHC at the time of this posting:

WTNT31 KNHC 021742

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014

200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA

COAST TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W

ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA

ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/

VIRGINIA BORDER

* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY

DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE

FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF

HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING

AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR

LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS

LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE

79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11

KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE

CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA

TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA

DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING

ARTHUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
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Rob Dawg

“Dire,” “battering,” “ugly.” “A potential nightmare scenario.”
So hard to keep up with all these technical terms.

DontGetOutMuch

I’m betting it wobbles a wee bit further East then the model and is weaker. Otherwise my OBX vacation in August is toast!!!

Scute

Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950’s? So tiring to read.
I think NHC need to have a chat with a few app developers to get a handle on what good presentation looks like.

110 knots? The NHC is predicting a peak of 85 (mph!) Friday AM. Oh, I think the graphic is showing the maximum gust, not the sustained speed. Hmm, NHC says “max wind” – I think that’s highest 5 minute average or something like that.
That’s a remarkably compact storm. Track is going to be important. Also, the forward speed will reduce the wind to the left of the track by quite a bit.
REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:

[In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.

Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony

Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
> Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.
They’re improving, some are up to the 1980s (monospace upper and lower case):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/021459.shtml says
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.
The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.
Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila

Been tracking storms since early 50s. If the storm center remains offshore, which is predicted now, it won’t be too bad – which is good. We all know that the right hand quadrants have the highest wind speeds and highest storm surge. If it tracks as predicted, the outer banks should be OK. If it veers left, watch out. Also if it hits left in conjunction with the high tide there could be major damage.
But with the present track I don’t see any major problems.
Just sayin…

Joseph Bastardi

Ric, I did say max gusts at 10 meters. The actual high gusts on the hires is 117 kts, but we cant display the HIRES in non weatherbell sites unless it is excerpted from weatherbell The steady winds look to be peaked over 80 kts on the model, but tough to say.
No one said it wasnt the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house

DesertYote

Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
Weather reports must be able to be sent over some pretty dodgy channels, thus 7bit ascii. The formatting provides consistency for the real consumers of the reports, who need to incorporate it into other products, often with little or no sleep. Getting creative with formatting, were the only goal is to make something showy for the public school educated populous, would become a hindrance.

Kjetil Nesheim

> Scute says:
>July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
>Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the >1950′s? So tiring to read.
The messages are still sent out on system that need a clear font. Like radio-fax or termal printers.

Joseph Bastardi says:
July 2, 2014 at 12:22 pm

Ric, I did say max gusts at 10 meters. The actual high gusts on the hires is 117 kts, but we cant display the HIRES in non weatherbell sites unless it is excerpted from weatherbell The steady winds look to be peaked over 80 kts on the model, but tough to say.

Thanks for the clarification.

No one said it wasn’t the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house

Indeed, but I don’t live on the coast, so I mostly worry about floods, tall trees in saturated soil, and that sort of stuff. Not a problem with Arthur for anyone, he’s not going to hang around long.

Mumbles McGuirck

Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.
I think NHC need to have a chat with a few app developers to get a handle on what good presentation looks like.
————————————————————————————————————————-
Bwaahahahahaha ha ha… If some of the NHC hurricane specialists had their way, they’d still be using pencil, paper, and calipers. The National Weather Service is very hide bound and NHC even more so. If they can find a reason NOT to innovate or change things, then they won’t. It took them this long to get away from all UPPER CASE in their discussion, and still not all their products.

Using all caps eliminates all those embarrassing capitalization errors, I suppose.

Pamela Gray

Ric, my grandparents always prepared for the worst. Even on a sunny day fishing just a couple miles from home. They grew up being taught that way of life by their parents, one of which took to the Oregon Trail as a young man, and the other took off as a toddler with family from the colonies to the wilderness of Missouri. Prepare for the long haul worst. And you might be able to say you lived to be a ripe old age.

That annoys me too. It’s hard to read weather updates in all caps. I don’t read them, except for scanning. When will they change??

Kenw

is CNN on 24×7 Arthur watch yet?

Maybe they could hire an intern (for free) to translate the updates from all caps to normal upper and lower case readable paragraphs…

Emory

Its a fortunate thing that the state engineers in NC weren’t able to find a way to close the new inlet (there were all kinds of rumors and such) that formed 2-3 years ago several miles north of Rodanthe, Old maps show there were 5 inlets between the VA border to Hatteras Inlet. Recent times there have been only 2. This newly formed inlet acts a pressure release valve when storms push water into the sounds as they approach and then push that built up water back at the Outer Banks once the storm passes as the winds shift to an offshore direction. It doesn’t take much of a storm to make a mess there and even weak storms have a way of finding something extra when the get near Hatteras.

ossqss
GeologyJim

“Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950s? So tiring to read. ”
If you’ve been paying any attention over the last week, it is clear that all the “crack” programming staff in USGovt climate/weather circles have been devoted to making “adjustments” to the USHCN temperature data.
They can’t be everywhere at once, ya know.

rgbatduke

As I sit here typing this, I’m looking out through the Beaufort inlet at the Atlantic. There is a saltwater bay that extends up to around 50 feet from my seat, where there is a short seawall (around 1 foot above spring tide). I’ve pulled my boat, and we will batten down the hatches and all that, but the forecast is currently only for tropical storm force winds and some rain. I have no idea what the graphics above with the eye inside the outer banks are supposed to represent. Something unlikely, I think. We are currently expecting to have the 4th celebration “as normal”, unless they postpone it for a day if it is still windy/raining Friday evening.
rgb

ossqss

Anthony wrote:

REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:
[In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.
Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony

I misparsed it. I read it like “110 knots and gusts at 10 meters!” I should have dwelled a bit more on the unlikelihood of Joe pointing out gusts at 10 meters and translated it into “gusts at 10 meters (height) greater than 110 knots,” but I didn’t.
It takes a bit to get back into a hurricane season mindset, especially since I never needed it last year!

brians356

Why does the 4th of July holiday make it a nightmare scenario? Are folks not in school or workplaces somehow more at risk? If anything, they’re more likely to be ready to evacuate. After all, the station wagon is all packed with food and gear, they just have to head west rather than east. Does the premise assume millions will be huddled on the beaches, unaware that a hurricane is approaching, and will be swept into the sea like lemmings? Or is the “nightmare” just a allusion to ruined holiday plans? Darn!

Billy Liar

Lucky they moved that Cape Hatteras lighthouse!

brians356

[snip]

u.k.(us)

Joseph Bastardi says:
July 2, 2014 at 12:22 pm
“No one said it wasnt the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house”
===========
Good point.

Tom in Florida

My wife will be flying out of Hartford Ct on Sat at 2 PM. Hope Arthur has passed by then and is far enough out to sea so as not to interrupt the flight.

RE rgbatduke says:
July 2, 2014 at 1:56 pm
REbrians356 says:
July 2, 2014 at 3:06 pm
The nightmare scenario is that you have people arriving expecting only a tropical storm, and awaking the next morning and hearing there may be 110 mph gusts, They were tired the night before after a long drive and did not top off their gas tanks. There is only one bridge off the outer banks, and so the traffic is slow, and then stops as cars run out of gas. Then a hurricane storm surge of 10-15 feet not only closes the roads, but starts to submerge the cars jammed on those words. You fill in the blanks after that for yourself.
Forewarned is forearmed. : :

brians356

Caleb,
Your scenario assumes we do not live in the Information Age, and that a hurricane can sneak up with only 24 hours warning. I’d be curious to know just how many people in that storm, when asked, would honestly say “I had no idea there was a hurricane coming.”

brians356,
just refer to the comment I was in part replying to. They were expecting a tropical storm. All you need to do is tweak the storm track 40 miles west.
On the other hand, if you raise the alarm, and the storm shifts 40 miles the other way, you have just cost people hundreds of millions of dollars, for a breezy summer rain.

James at 48

Hurricane party dude … they ALWAYS turn …. /sarc

u.k.(us)

On a lighter note, you could just chain it down like this:
http://mountwashington.org/weather/comments/2014/070114-lg.jpg
The link was found here:
http://www.mountwashington.org/
A fun website to visit.

[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anth
Lives are at stake and they are asserting their copyright? That goes beyond bizzaro. Words fail me.

The Hermit

Meh, the name ‘Arthur’ makes me think of Dudley Moore, and he was only like 5’3″.
Nothing to worry about, folks.

David

OT, but noteworthy.
This afternoon, the ISEE-3 team successfully commanded the spacecraft to fire thrusters and changed its spin rate.
http://spacecollege.org/isee3/isee-3-engines-fired-for-spin-up.html

Rich Bragonje

Emory says:
July 2, 2014 at 1:35 pm
That inlet, called “New Inlet”, or new New Inlet, was caused by Irene. In the following 6 weeks, the NCDOT folks designed, contracted, got all the various approvals, and built a “temporary bridge’ across that inlet. Many kudoes to NCDOT for a job well done.
Many locals call it the Lego Bridge. The inlet has been pretty much filled in for the last year. NCDOT is now doing the prep work for building the permanent replacement.
There used to be an inlet in that vicinity, called New Inlet. I don’t remember which storm opened it, nor which one closed it.
If you are interested, NCDOT has a site with a whole series of photos of the construction of the Lego Bridge. http://www.ncdot.gov/travel/nc12recovery/
Rich

clipe

Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?inundation#contents

TomD

What is a gust “…at ten meters.?
REPLY: 10 meters above the surface, standard anemometer height -A

clipe

The Hermit says:
July 2, 2014 at 4:23 pm

Meh, the name ‘Arthur’ makes me think of Dudley Moore, and he was only like 5’3″.
Nothing to worry about, folks

‘Arthur’ was the name of the dog that, as the movie faded to black, was about to knock him of the stool he was standing on, with a noose around his neck, after he’d talked himself out of committing suicide.

clipe

knock him off the stool (chair?)

Don K

Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.

Probably because they need to be compatible with the oldest piece of gear still in service on their network — which is likely pretty ancient. If I recall correctly the mechanical teletypes widely used at remote locations in the 1950s and 1960s. had only upper case.
Then there is the issue of funding to rewrite software that works fine as is.

clipe

Apologies Hermit, I confused Dudley with Tom Conti in “Reuben, Reuben”.
Reuben was the dastardly dog.

Merrick

The film did not fade to black – unless you saw an edited version for our new “kinder, gentler” world. There was plenty of kicking and thrashing filmed from about mid-torso down when I first saw the film.

Merrick

And the dogs name was Reuben, not the character. The character’s name was Gowan.

clipe

Merrick
I saw the TV version and as I mentioned “Reuben was the dastardly dog.”
Now back to regular programming
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/cape-hatteras-lighthouse-southeast_5230/

milodonharlani

The Kill Devil Hills are pretty windy even out of hurricane season, which is why the Wright Brothers chose the area for their experimental flights going on 111 years ago. How time flies, so to speak.

clipe

http://www.surfchex.com/
This one’s not live but refresh CTRL+F5 works pretty well.
http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html

Katie

You have to be kidding. It is hilarious, but serious at the same time. Leave the reporting of disaster weather events up to the main stream media. There is no point in highlighting them here. Some people, who don’t understand the science, come here to read that the weather is not bad and the climate is stable. To read about these terrible events here must terrify them.
I have noticed there is a lot more reporting of unusual weather events in the mainstream media recently and this could lead people to think there is climate change. Reporting it here only emphases this point.
Leave the alarmist reporting to someone else. Don’t mention it here on this blog.

clipe

Watching the Holden Beach cam. Lots of traffic heading north with some heading west. Almost nothing southbound. Weather related? 😉

davidmhoffer says:
July 2, 2014 at 4:21 pm

[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anth
Lives are at stake and they are asserting their copyright? That goes beyond bizzaro. Words fail me.

Others can do a much better job describing the ECMWF than I can, but they’re not an American gov’t agency that gives its product away for free, like the NWS or GPS system (note that the NCDC sells some of its data…).
They’re based in England, but don’t think BBC and the TV tax.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are says in part:

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states.
ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national meteorological services in the Member States. The Centre also offers a catalogue of forecast data that can be purchased by businesses worldwide and other commercial customers

If they gave away their products, they’d go bankrupt, so they don’t. OTOH, they also say:

ECMWF’s annual budget is funded almost entirely by annual contributions from the Member and Co-operating States, according to a scale based on their gross national income.

So if they worked out a deal where their members kept sending them money, but the ECMWF made everything public, perhaps after a couple hour delay, perhaps that would work.
However, we are talking Europe and a few other local countries here. Some don’t like giving away their stuff for free.

SIGINT EX

From NOAA:
8:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 2
Location: 30.2°N 79.2°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Still classified a Tropical Storm (not Monster Hurricane and an Aussi (Auz) paper called it).
[rather,”as an Aussie paper” called it? .mod]

trafamadore

Hey Anthony, you miss the launch of CalTechs OCO-2 satellite? Successful.