Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It…
Category: Forecasting
Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat
‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from…
Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5
Guest Essay by Dr. Norman Page 1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion. a) Overview. In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over the developing cooling trend…
There is only one published peer-reviewed paper that claims to provide scientific forecasts of long-range global mean temperatures
by Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they…
Digital Signal Processing analysis of global temperature data time series suggests global cooling ahead
This DSP engineer is often tasked with extracting spurious signals from noisy data. He submits this interesting result of applying these techniques to the HadCRUT temperature anomaly data. Digital Signal…
A 'head scratcher' – No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years
Where are all the hurricanes Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm, and Brad Johnson say are supposed to happen due to global warming? Article includes most recent forecast from Klotzbach…
Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance
From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last…
Hottest weather of the season likely coming
Model output from WeatherBell added by Anthony By Steve Pierce, AMS chapter president, Oregon Portland, Oregon (June 25th 2013) – “The hottest weather of the season is likely on the…
Two years to a 1740-type event?
Guest essay by David Archibald Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data…
12 Reasons Why The Met Office Is Alarmed
From the GWPF: Met Office To Hold Crisis Summit On Epic Forecast Failures The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too…
FOIA obtained Met Office document shows them to be clueless about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year
Maybe all they need is a bigger computer Guest post by by Paul Homewood Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the Met Office provided the Environment Agency…
Uncertainty be damned, let's make ice and sea level projections anyway
‘A better path’ toward projecting, planning for rising seas on a warmer Earth From Princeton University, by Morgan Kelly, Office of Communications More useful projections of sea level are possible…
Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions
Guest post by Dr. Norman Page 1. Methods and Premises My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this…
“Global warming predictions prove accurate”– Guardian
Guest post by Paul Homewood http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/27/climate-change-model-global-warming The Mail on Sunday ran an article by David Rose a couple of weeks ago, pointing out just how woeful most climate models had…
Newsbytes: The Met office blunders again – warm bias in forecasting
From The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser Met Office Apologises For Wrong Forecast – And Makes Another One Warm Bias: The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record Met Office apologises for…
How well did Hansen (1988) do?
Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s…
I offer @ClimateOfGavin help understanding events -vs- trends
Yesterday, when Climategate 3 was released, the ever flippant Dr. Gavin Schmidt made this Tweet in response: Source: Google Trends, searching the word “climategate” from December 2009 to March 2013…
Quote of the Week – blaming Nature for poor model performance
There’s not much I can say about this quote from the Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach as it stands on its own quite well. The context of this quote is article…
A new buzzword for pushing climate fear? 'Explosive Cyclones'
After the past weekend’s silliness over a snowstorm that wasn’t all that much different than Nor’Easters of the past, I can imagine some CNN anchor using the phrase badly in…
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