'Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.'

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1[1]

An example of predictions gone wrong

That headline is attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra.

But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky.

That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. I stumbled on this film from 1956 today by accident, and I just had to laugh at how far off the mark it was. It made me think of climate science and it’s failed predictions we see in the graph in the upper right.

On the plus side, some predictions in the film have come true. We have GPS Navigation, we have automobile status displays, and we have OnStar vehicle to dispatch communications. What we don’t have is dual jet turbine powered consumer level cars, autopilot (though Google is getting close) or uniformed controllers at freeway intersections that sing.

 

 

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Patrick Sullivan

Actually, warmist climate science is often as bad at “predicting” the past as it is the future.

John Slayton

Classic! Best part is the Honda ad that popped up during screen credits…

JimS

A precious little film, for sure. Enjoyed it thoroughly.

We also have air conditioning in just about all cars and almost all car have cup holders, but not tray tables.
But I don’t get this movie, what happened to the traffic? It wouldn’t just disappear just because they had a control tower, we would still have the same number of cars or more so the control tower would be as busy or more busy than flight controllers are now.
It isn’t just Google that is close to making hands free driving a reality GM too is very close.

Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. Especially when coupled to a global vision of education grounded in constraining what the mind believes and manipulating emotions, values, and attitudes. http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/openly-admitting-global-coordination-to-impose-behavioral-programming-using-education-and-the-law/
Through GELP–the Global Education Leaders Program we have open admissions of what the US Common Core and 21st century learning globally is really designed to force. With this vision, scientific reality becomes moot in favor the required “shared understanding” achieved via the K-12 classroom and a requirement of empathy and mutual consultation.
When that ‘shared understanding’ becomes the new definition of knowledge, we really are gambling all that makes a civilization work so that the State can increase its decision-making power. This is what I alluded to yesterday when I mentioned the Rockefeller Foundation funded Communication For Social Change juggernaut globally.

Ralph

I’m jealous of all the backseat legroom they have in the future…

Hoser

1956, back when we were on top of the world. Technically, we are still on top economically, but it sure doesn’t feel like it. A recent story on Drudge [1] says household income in constant dollars fell by 1/3 since 2003 from about $88k to about $56k. The housing bubble hid a decline that began in 2001. Of course, the deconstruction of the Reagan boom really started before that in the 1990s [2,3].
1. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/business/the-typical-household-now-worth-a-third-less.html
2. http://tjhancock.wordpress.com/housing-bubble-financial-crisis-detailed-comprehensive-assessment/
3. http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0102/morris1.asp

R. Shearer

If only by accident, bumblers like Michael Mann are prophetic once in a while. 🙂
http://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/t31.0-8/476395_337058606350348_101913724_o.jpg

u.k.(us)

Now, if only GM would have fixed their ignition switches earlier, they wouldn’t have to declare bankruptcy again.
I had problems with my 2002 (dreaded SUV) Tahoe, the recalls haven’t reached that deep, yet.

Kevin Kilty

At the turn of the last “millenium”, one year too early, someone published a list of futurists’ predictions in 1901. They managed to miss all sorts of inventions, one of which, the airplane, was only two years away.

DayHay
Pat

Was the name Firebird inspired by the GM ignition switch?

James

I think I will pass on the predigested food…

I’m surprised this quote hasn’t been mentioned before
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”
Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet

ralfellis

Ahh, video produced by the Thunderbirds team, in conjunction with Scalectrix. Wonderful.
.
Actually, there is a Twin Jet turbine car, and that is the Jaguar C-X75. It uses twin Bladon axial jet engines (made in Wales), driving electric motors – so it is a diesel-electric. It is not in production yet, but is a running test vehicle.
The only twin Jet Turbine vehicle in production, as far as i am aware, is the M1 Abrams battle tank.
The Jaguar C-X75.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P4kDD9qt-AA

skiphil

I don’t know how widespread it was but I’ve seen several assertions that in the 1950s many were expecting that in not too many years there would be personal helicopters at just about every middle class home. Obviously we are still a very very long way from that, if it ever happens. Or maybe a personal VSTOL aircraft at every home…. could replace cars… in a century… or two… or three….

Gary Pearse

They would have been a little bit closer if they had had only one turbothruster (CO2, energy consumption, blah, blah). Technological forecasting is always an upper limit. They don’t factor in contrary policies of governments and the intrusion of anti-everything, ‘sinistral’ saboteur organizations and co-opted educational institutions which are a huge drag on what is possible. Recommend: make an unbounded forecast and then chop it down by forecasting the ever- present deconstructors. This film will get better with age – maybe another half a century, but drop one of the jets for sure.

ralfellis

Hoser says: July 27, 2014 at 8:53 am
1956, back when we were on top of the world. Technically, we are still on top economically, but it sure doesn’t feel like it.
____________________________________
Simple economics.
If you spend 30% of GDP on welfare, and ham-string your industry with red tape and health and safety directives, you are going downhill fast. Just think of how many Apollo programmes, the US and UK welfare budgets would produce.
Welfare is an easy sell for a democratic politician, as who does not want to be seen to be ‘nice’ and ‘caring’. But you would probably find that if governments invested that money in Apollo programmes instead, most of those on welfare would be gainfully employed, instead of watching day-time TV. And America and the UK would be powering ahead once more in R&D and technology, and thus earning the income and foreign exchange to pay for the standard of living we have grown used to and expect.
Ralph

eyesonu

Every time I see that graph I get a BIG smile!

Is it possible to add another bold line to the graph indicating the mean of the squares and circles?

In the language of climatology, the term “predict” has several meanings making it important for an author to identify which of these meanings is meant when he/she uses this term. In the scientific use of this term, it references a falsifiable claim. The claim that is falsifiable is that the outcomes of events will have the predicted relative frequencies when observed. Until recently, neither events nor relative frequencies existed for IPCC climate models. Thus, the “predictions” of these models were neither falsifiable nor scientific.
This situation may be changing. In the report of Working Group 1, in AR5, the IPCC cites falsifiable claims that supposedly were made by climate models. I say “supposedly” because the data look somewhat fishy.

Jeff Alberts

So, they’re sitting right on the turbines that go all the way through the car? Bet that’s a fun ride.

And then the politicians bought themselves a car company with taxpayer dollars…

“What we don’t have is … uniformed controllers at freeway intersections that sing.”
And it is a travesty that we don’t.
Perhaps they are hiding with the missing heat?

Patrick B

As a science fiction fan, I always find these future predictions amusing. One thing that both these types of predictions and science fiction often miss is the social revolutions – early science fiction envisioned woman as happy housewives using new technologies, nuclear families intact, homogeneous populations, and a 1950’s belief that earning a living requires hard work. Yet the most critical factors impacting our lives and our government are the loss of the nuclear family, the growth of the taking class, the reduction in family size and the diversity of the population and attendant disparate beliefs in government and social roles. Self driving cars will not change our lives nearly as much as control of the government by those who believe everyone, whether a citizen or not, is entitled to free housing, free food, free child care, free health care, free education, free electricity, free water etc. etc.

urederra

Tom Trevor says:
July 27, 2014 at 8:38 am
We also have air conditioning in just about all cars and almost all car have cup holders, but not tray tables.

It isn’t just Google that is close to making hands free driving a reality GM too is very close.

It is an ad from 1956 showing how a car would be in 1976. We are in 2014.
Anyway, movies and TV series about the future off the top of my head:
2001: A space Odyssey.
Space 1999.
Star trek. Oddly enough, Star Trek artists imagined the iPad 25 years ago.
Add your own…

That video reminded me of this video that appeared on Mystery Science Theater 3000, also by GM and also in 1956. And it also features the Firebird 2 like the video above.

Ralph-GELP admits openly that the ‘welfare state’ is a crucial component of the K-12 and higher ed reform visions going on globally all over the world. That is in the Helsinki powerpoints. It also acknowledges GELP is openly working with the OECD in what it calls the Great Transition process.
So the UK, Canada, US, Australia, and other cited countries are all being driven by their education systems towards advanced socialism, whatever the intentions of the elected officials are. The economic consequences are actually not that hard to predict as you note.
I am so worried though because this reality, athough documented and easily provable, is just not filtering through to enough parents and taxpayers in all these affected countries. The only way out is sunlight on what is actually going on.

DAV

What we don’t have is dual jet turbine powered consumer level cars, autopilot (though Google is getting close) or uniformed controllers at freeway intersections that sing.
But there is one that dances. Not on a freeway though,

The ironic thing is that a decade after this film it took us several more years just to persuade GM to replace generators with alternators.

An interesting point on the social and economic vision that is also not being covered is that the EPA is conducting regional hearings on its push to regulate carbon dioxide. Guess what the invitation to sign up to testify is actually promoting? “Just Energy”–Carbon Dioxide is, according to the various community groups planning to hold a press conference and march on Tuesday, actually just another means of getting to Economic Justice.
Former Obama Administration advisor Van Jones said the same thing as the excuse for why political radicals are so enamored of the Green revolution. It forces the government to take charge of economic planning and then politicians get to decide what gets located where and who gets those jobs.
Essential facts to appreciate to really understand what is intended for these models that are resistant to reality. The purpose is to create demand for public policies to try to alter the Future, not reflect current reality or even the past accurately.

A google employee took a $10 RC car, and using an old spare android phone and a laptop via wifi has a self driving neuronet car with free code for anyone who wants to make their own. The code and a video is at http://blog.davidsingleton.org/nnrccar/
The video walks a room full of nerds through the process of how it works, why it works that way, and how you can make your own self driving car with old spare junk hardware. The capacity in the old smart phones we replace very 1-2 years is still amazing.

Taphonomic

Hoser says:
“A recent story on Drudge [1] says household income in constant dollars fell by 1/3 since 2003 from about $88k to about $56k.”
That study is discussing household net worth not household income.
http://web.stanford.edu/group/scspi/_media/working_papers/pfeffer-danziger-schoeni_wealth-levels.pdf

u.k.(us)

Jack H Barnes says:
July 27, 2014 at 10:49 am
A google employee took a $10 RC car, and using an old spare android phone and a laptop via wifi has a self driving neuronet car with free code for anyone who wants to make their own. The code and a video is at http://blog.davidsingleton.org/nnrccar/
The video walks a room full of nerds through the process of how it works, why it works that way, and how you can make your own self driving car with old spare junk hardware. The capacity in the old smart phones we replace very 1-2 years is still amazing.
========================
The first time it runs over a toddler, it’s all done.

Don

Patrick B says:
July 27, 2014 at 10:25 am
“…Self driving cars will not change our lives nearly as much as control of the government by those who believe everyone, whether a citizen or not, is entitled to free housing, free food, free child care, free health care, free education, free electricity, free water etc. etc.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wrong, wrong, wrong! They do not believe in these free things for everyone, but only for those who do not produce all they consume… and then some. Productivity is to be punished, indolence and sloth rewarded. After all, “You didn’t build that!”

Latitude

EPA report: Climate Skeptics have reached a unprecedented tipping point
Report: Climate Change Skeptics Could Reach Catastrophic Levels By 2020
WASHINGTON—In a worrying development that could have dire implications for the health of the planet, a report published Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency suggests that the number of climate change skeptics could reach catastrophic levels by the year 2020.
According to the agency’s findings, the rising quantity and concentration of individuals who willfully deny or downplay the ruinous impact of the ongoing climate crisis will no longer be manageable by the end of the decade, leading to disastrous consequences for global ecosystems that may well prove irreversible.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-climate-change-skeptics-could-reach-catastr,36521/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=LinkPreview%3A1%3ADefault
….film at 11

JeffC

Google is getting close ???? right just like Amazon will be soon using drones to deliver packages … Google is doing a PR stunt nothing more … being a good search engine programmer doesn’t make you a good automated driving programmer …

In the films, the people are hysterically grateful for the breakthrus (spelling improvement project) they enjoy. Who is all that grateful for the real breakthrus we actually have?
The lack of traffic, the extreme grins, the singing traffic controllers–well, this stuff is Hollywood.

jhborn

I believe I saw that piece at the time. Fifteen years later I was involved first-hand in preparing for a massive, but in the event, abortive–Picturephone rollout.
But I’m a slow learner. Despite those prediction failures, I listened five years later when the they said electric cars were on the horizon, and I decided that I wouldn’t get another new car until I could buy an electric. Turns out, It was over thirty years before I bought another car–and when I did it was powered by an internal-combustion engine just like all my previous cars.
So, yes, significant battery energy-density increases may be imminent, but you’ll understand if I don’t hold my breath..

joelobryan

hey, they missed the memo on “Click it, or ticket.”
and what about the cigar smoking dad?. did those 1976ers miss the Surgeon Generals warnings? Big tobacco must have thrown in some funding.

MrX

If you want to see something eerie, take a look at The Mother of All Demos in 1968 by Douglas Engelbart. This is the guy that invented the mouse and many other tools as you’ll see in this demo. It’s quite long, but if you’re into technology, this is the most amazing video I’ve ever seen. It makes it seem like we’re behind the times.

Gary Pate

I have an old “The Peoples Almanac” from the mid 1970’s & the future predictions are a hoot, we should have been all dead by 1990 according to them. The Paul Ehrlich (listed as a “expert” on population & ecology) predictions are the wackiest.

PaulH

I’ve been re-reading Jules Verne. Talk about stories with a positive view of the future from the 19th century. Some of the details are rather amusing from our perspective here in the early 21st century. For example, “From the Earth to the Moon” speculated living on the moon with it’s atmosphere and native inhabitants, “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea” described a relatively warm Antarctica. (The Kindle version of “The Collected Works of Jules Verne: 36 Novels and Short Stories” is a bargain.)
On the other side of the coin, a recent Financial Post article “World War One: The war that ended growth” examines how economic and technological growth was steadily improving from about 1870 until the start of the First World War, and didn’t really start to recover until the 1950’s.
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/07/26/world-war-one-the-war-that-ended-growth/

u.k.(us)

MrX says:
July 27, 2014 at 12:13 pm
“…..It makes it seem like we’re behind the times.”
=============
These are the times, best not to be behind.

Tom Trevor says:
July 27, 2014 at 8:38 am
It isn’t just Google that is close to making hands free driving a reality GM too is very close.
=========================================================================
I hear that GM is also close to designing a reliable ignition switch. Will wonders never cease?

Claude Harvey

The real eye-opener is that our marvelous technological advances of the recent past have not brought folks the happiness they imagined back in 1956. Beaming families, singing along in harmonious cooperation is not what I see about me. Each new innovation is met by a brief interlude of joy and excitement followed in very short order with, “Well…what else you got for me?” I don’t think we’re wired quite the way “futurists” insist on imagining.

u.k.(us)

Claude Harvey says:
July 27, 2014 at 1:18
…”I don’t think we’re wired quite the way “futurists” insist on imagining.”
=================
Neither does Youtube 🙂

Jimbo

I can hear warmists now saying “climate scientists don’t make predictions”. The problem is they keep using the the “predict”, and its variations thereof, over and over again.
Then I hear that the IPCC NEVER HAS made a prediction. I agree, they just throw the words about whenever they LIKED.

IPCC – Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
3.1. Definitions and Role of Scenarios 3.1.1. Introduction
Forecast/Prediction. When a projection is branded “most likely,” it becomes a forecast or prediction. A forecast is often obtained by using deterministic models—possibly a set of such models—outputs of which can enable some level of confidence to be attached to projections.
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=125
==========================
IPCC Climate Change 1992 “Climate Modelling, Climate Prediction and Model Validation”
https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/1992%20IPCC%20Supplement/IPCC_Suppl_Report_1992_wg_I/ipcc_wg_I_1992_suppl_report_section_b.pdf
==========================
Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment
Section B – Climate Modelling, Climate Prediction and Model Validation
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_supplementary_report_1992_wg1.shtml

Jimbo:
You’re tuning into games being played by climatologists in attempts at persuading readers of IPCC assessment reports that climatologists have employed the scientific method in their investigation of global warming when they have not done so. Details on this deception are available at http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=7923

K-12 education is trying its best to remedy that wiring though. Down to presecribing the desired concepts we whould perceive the world through and then bragging among each other in print about creating a steerable mental and psychological ‘keel’.
Some concept of the common good. More like acquiescence or obtuseness to a kleptocracy. “Don’t mind us while we loot.”

Jimbo

What we don’t have is dual jet turbine powered consumer level cars, autopilot (though Google is getting close) or uniformed controllers at freeway intersections that sing.

We are getting close. Hit it!
http://youtu.be/s6Llde0i3rk