Has the PDO flipped?

Guest post by David Middleton Cyclical changes in the Pacific Ocean have thrown earth’s surface into what may be an unprecedented warming spurt, following a global warming slowdown that lasted…

How Strong Was That El Niño or La Niña? – No One Knows For Sure

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale We recently discussed and illustrated how the differences between sea surface temperature datasets prevented us from knowing which of the recent strong El Niño events…

Weather Two Months From Now

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach A while back, folks noticed that a couple of months after the El Nino kicked in across the Pacific, the earth would warm up a…

NASA: El Niño driven 'stagnant upper-air pattern spread numerous storms and heavy rains [into] central Texas' no mention of 'climate change'

The climate zealots were out in force this week trying to link the rains in Texas to ‘climate change’. The press release from NASA makes no such connections, but instead…

The Recent Westerly Wind Burst in the Western Equatorial Pacific Could Help to Strengthen the 2015/16 El Niño

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The graphics at the NOAA GODAS website were running a few pentads (5-day periods) behind when I published the May 2015 ENSO Update. They’re caught…

Forecast super El Niño for fall nearly double the strength of 1998 Super El Niño

Wow!  ECMWF Long-Term Weather Model Is Predicting a Super El Niño and I Mean Super Guest Post by Bob Tisdale I was notified today of the rather remarkable plume of…

Final – The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 22 – January 2015 Update – You Make the Forecasts for the 2015/16 Season

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale WRAP-UP This is the final post in The 2014/15 El Niño series.  It began back in April 2014 when many people were expecting a strong…

Did ENSO and the “Monster” Kelvin Wave Contribute to the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale Of course they did. Those who have followed the 2014/15 El Niño series from its start back in April will recall all the hoopla about…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 21 – December Update – Weekly NINO3.4 SSTa at Threshold of Moderate El Niño

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño conditions. The post is similar in layout to the…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 20 – November Update – The Little El Niño That Shoulda’-Woulda’-Coulda’

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale And maybe it will.  Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies last week for the NINO3.4 region were at their highest level for the year. Then again,…

Enthusiasm about a Double-Dip El Niño (?) And Global Warming

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale In this post we can learn from someone’s mistakes. The author of the post at Slate clearly misunderstands many aspects of El Niño and their…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 18 – October 2014 Update – One Last Chance?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale This year started off with a subsurface weather event below the surface of the tropical Pacific that made researchers and global warming alarmists hope for…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 16 – Is There Still Hope for a Moderate El Niño?

Guest post by Bob Tisdale I’ll provide the September update in a week or so, but I found the following interesting. According to the animation of subsurface temperature anomalies along…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 15 – August 2014 Update – An El Niño Mulligan?

Yes, I’m using the term Mulligan as in a replayed golf shot. Ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from the downwelling (warm)…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

There may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 13 – More Mixed Signals

A few interesting things have happened since the July Update last week. On the ocean side, weekly sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region have dropped (just) below the threshold…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the beginning of July 2014. The post is similar in…

From IRI – Eight Misconceptions About El Niño (and La Niña)

Yesterday, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) published a post about a number of mistaken beliefs about El Niño and La Niña events. Misconceptions discussed:

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 11 – Is the El Niño Dying?

There’s still a possibility the 2014/15 El Niño could die even though it had so much promise just a few months ago.  In this post, we’ll compare a few indicators…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 10 – June 2014 Update – Still Waiting for the Feedbacks

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the end of May 2014. The post is similar in…

SkepticalScience Needs to Update their Escalator

The SkepticalScience animation The Escalator has been around for a couple of years, and it has appeared in dozens of their posts and in blog posts by other carbon dioxide-obsessed…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 9 – Kevin Trenberth is Looking Forward to Another “Big Jump”

In a recent interview, Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Senior Scientist, from NCAR said the upcoming 2014/15 El Niño might shift global surface temperatures upwards by 0.2 to 0.3 deg C to…

Answer to the Question Posed at Climate Etc.: By What Mechanism Does an El Niño Contribute to Global Warming?

Late last week, Judith Curry published a post written by Donald Rapp titled El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming. Donald referred to my work a number of times…

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 8 – The Southern Oscillation Indices

The Southern Oscillation Index has been mentioned often in comments at WattsUpWithThat, in this series of blog posts about the upcoming El Niño. Curiously, Australia’s BOM Southern Oscillation Index for…