A Weak El Nino Transitioning to La Nada

If the decrease in natural CO2 off gassing due to ocean surface temperatures is noted, will the resulting change in the natural vs man made CO2 ratio be reported accurately as a drop in natural contribution or hyped as ‘we are more responsible than ever’?

I’m not saying your prediction is all wrong, but the reason for it could be, and there is more explanation for what’s in your article. The lunar synchronicities are fascinating and are very likely a player in tidal movements that might affect upwelling rates and circulation changes that spread tropical OHC outward faster.

The West Pacific Trade Index as you intimated does follow the solar cycle influence on the ocean via absorbed solar energy that converts to ocean heat content, driving SST up, OLR down, with the trade winds following.

Monthly TSI for four cycles was cross-correlated with 18 different climate indices in Fig. 11 linked below. The R values weren’t particularly high, but the solar cycle TSI influence on equatorial OHC is clear, with the ENSO indices keying off Eq. OHC. Consider the -72 month as the start of the solar cycle. After the low point La Nina, there was typically a six-year rise in Eq. OHC, ie accumulation:

The R values of many Fig. 11 plots would be of higher significance if instead of just using TSI for the CCs as I did there if the TSI function used in lieu of TSI was the detrended sum of the TSI anomaly above/below 1361.25 W/m^2 as shown in the thick red line of Fig. 13e-g linked further down, which is the ocean warming TSI threshold I empirically derived in 2014/15, because that TSI function accounts for the ongoing accumulation of OHC from ASR at deeper depths that upwells slowly, affecting the surface temperature but lagging TSI.

The low points of your 11.2 year La Nina Pattern curve correspond to the lowest part of the solar cycle cumulative energy curve, the thick red line that I just talked about from Fig 13e-g linked below, which occurs in the last year before the new solar cycle’s activity exceeds my TSI threshold level that warms thereafter until TSI falls below the threshold again during the declining phase of the solar cycle, all of which your curve follows, making perfect sense at 11.2 years.

You are expecting an El Nino this year just as I and a few others but for different reasons. What your pattern misses is the solar cycle onset El Ninos in 1997/98 and 2009/10, and what is coming when sunspot activity resumes and delivers the largest annual increases in TSI of the cycle like in Fig. 13i.

The Kelvin waves you claim were lunar-driven were actually TSI-driven during the solar maximum, when TSI was higher than my solar-ocean warming threshold of 1361.25 W/m^2 SORCE TSI, and abruptly ended when TSI fell below that red line in mid-March of 2016, commencing a record 2-year cooling period:

All figures were from my AGU 2018 Fall Meeting Climate Extremes: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Attribution poster, “Extreme Weather Events and Climate Extremes are Limited by the Duration of Solar Cycle Irradiance Extremes”.

You could be right Ian.
Furthermore I predict that Christmas 2020 will fall on June 25th.