Dr Willie Soon Predicts Global Cooling, Slams Politicised Science

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Dr. Willie Soon at his best, educating kids and adults at Camp Constitution about the politicisation of climate science, the exploitation of Greta Thunberg, failed climate predictions, the poor quality of mainstream science education, and the rise of the Technocracy, the growing risk from elitists who seek to subvert freedom by controlling ordinary people through manufactured fear.

Dr. Soon predicting imminent global cooling.

I once had the privilege to meet Dr. Soon in person. Climate activists hate him, because in person and in his speeches he positively radiates passion and integrity. Dr. Soon’s gift is explaining in detail the failures of climate alarmists to ordinary people, an implacable opponent of those who would ensnare us with hobgoblins and falsehoods.

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pochas94
July 28, 2021 2:27 am

Dr Soon’s got guts! The courage to fight against those who seek the power to force people to do things. Those things are meaningless if they urge rational behavior. Anyone would do that. They only have meaning if they are irrational and force unquestioning supplication on those they wish to control.

Dennis
Reply to  pochas94
July 28, 2021 3:02 am

When mathematician Christopher Monckton tabled his audit results from analysis of the UN IPCC global warming hoax modelling he was cancelled and refused permission to lecture at the Copenhagen Conference and other venues.

He is not a scientist they said as their excuse, they were right of course, but auditors do not base their work on science, they are accountants.

griff
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 3:55 am

Has Lord M got the fraud squad to act on his paper being squashed yet? As he claimed was imminent?

YallaYPoora Kid
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 5:02 am

Have you given any evidence yet of man induced climate change as you have been requested many times?
Crickets . . .

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  YallaYPoora Kid
July 28, 2021 8:15 am

Or apologized for saying that Susan Crockford was not a scientist? He is a hypocrite that sets standards for others that he is unwilling to live by.

Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 7:15 am

As Dr. Willie Soon would say…”soon”….very soon.

Editor
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 3:32 pm

Who is Lord M? is he the man to handle spy assignment for M16 and has James Bond among his team, that Lord M?

Meanwhile Dr. Soon is the man of the topic, how come you ignored him completely?

Your drive byes are childish and evidence free, got anything better to offer?

Last edited 1 month ago by Sunsettommy
John Phillips
Reply to  Sunsettommy
July 29, 2021 3:02 am

Monckton and Soon are the only people Camp Constitution ever invites to ‘teach’ the kids about climate change.

Surely there is some law against this abuse 😉

MarkW
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 12:34 pm

A law against teaching kids about reality?
There isn’t one yet, but I’m sure your Democrats have one in the works.

John Phillips
Reply to  MarkW
July 29, 2021 2:35 pm

Monckton and reality became divorced some years ago.

Last edited 1 month ago by John Phillips
fretslider
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 3:55 am

they are 

Bean counters.

Duane
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 5:32 am

Mathematicians ARE scientists. The science of math, which is the underlying science of everything that the climate alarmists depend upon to make their case, as in made up numbers from faked up modeling. That’s why Monckton is such a danger to them.

Richard Page
Reply to  Duane
July 28, 2021 8:30 am

Mathematicians are scientists and Monckton is a danger to them because climate enthusiasts are not scientists; they are just extremely poor mathematicians and misguided, deluded activists. That they were ever given a platform to scream their drivel from is a problem that will take decades to resolve, if ever. They should just thank their lucky stars that most of them live in a tolerant society and may never have to face the consequences of their mistakes.

John Phillips
Reply to  Richard Page
July 29, 2021 3:18 am

Monckton is a danger? Really?

Last edited 1 month ago by John Phillips
DrEd
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 10:21 am

Scientific truth is a danger to the alarmist liars, and Monckton tells the scientific truth.

John Phillips
Reply to  DrEd
July 31, 2021 4:24 am
Reply to  Duane
July 28, 2021 1:02 pm

Why is there no Nobel Prize in mathematics? Officially, math is not a science. It is only an inherently racist .. something.

Bob Hunter
Reply to  Curious George
July 28, 2021 1:33 pm

Young mathematicians have the Fields Medal. (Sorry , from the movie “Good Will Hunting”. btw there is a Fields Medal)

Nick in Vancouver
Reply to  Curious George
July 29, 2021 10:55 am

There is a Nobel in Literature. Apparently Mike Mann won that one.

Solomon Green
Reply to  Nick in Vancouver
August 2, 2021 8:08 am

Not all literature – only fiction.

StephenP
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 5:35 am

If the world does cool, then guess who will claim the credit?

pochas94
Reply to  StephenP
July 28, 2021 5:52 am

We are Legion.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  StephenP
July 28, 2021 9:46 am

They’ll try – but the climbing emissions (despite all of the “agreements,” “accords,” “commitments,” and other virtue-signalling crap) and climbing CO2 levels will promptly and loudly be thrown in their faces to counter the notion that their “efforts” were the “fix” to the non-crisis.

earnst
Reply to  StephenP
July 28, 2021 10:01 am

Nope, they’ll just claim particulates or smething from energy use is the cause of our rapid descent into an ice age without governments intervening.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  earnst
July 29, 2021 3:17 am

They’ve been tryng to blame particulates for decades, without success.

That’s what they claimed was causing Human-caused Global Cooling. Then it warmed up and “poof” went their speculation.

There are still some die-hards who continue to hang their hat on particulates, but like the Global Warming crowd, the Global Cooling crowd don’t have any evidence to back up their claims.

JAY BANERJEE
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 6:14 am

I would like to see more accountants ‘do’ science. Peer (not pal) review and experiment evaluation/reproduction are just different forms of audits.

science – accountability = fiction

PMHinSC
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 9:03 am

“He is not a scientist they said as their excuse, they were right of course,…”
I know of no definition of “scientist” that would exclude Christopher Monckton; there is no test or degree required to be called a scientist.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  PMHinSC
July 28, 2021 9:49 am

Exactly. Anyone can deduce something scientifically, “credentials” are just a way to shout down those who reveal the ignorance of the so-called “experts.”

Rah
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
July 28, 2021 10:06 am

More comets have been found by amaturs than professionals. Besides, math is the language of science and thus a mathematician is an expert in the language of science.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Rah
July 28, 2021 1:47 pm

almost no mathematician today has the slightest concept of physical science. It’s why so many of them think uncertainty can be cancelled if only you calculate the “mean” of any data set accurately enough. It’s why the climate models are trash. Uncertainty grows within the models e\literally without bound and the mathematicians/computer programmers building the models refuse to accept that fact of physical science.

Reply to  Rah
July 28, 2021 8:45 pm

In the past decade or so, most comets have been discovered by automated equipment, such as systems scanning the skies for Earth-threatening asteroids and one that is monitoring the Sun’s outer corona. (There are very small comets that only get detected if they get only a few million miles of the sun, and some of those get disintegrated while they are only a few million miles or less from the sun.)

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Donald L. Klipstein
July 29, 2021 3:25 am

https://www.space.com/newfound-comet-biggest-recorded-history

They just found a big comet, maybe the biggest evah!, measuring up to 120 miles in diameter.

TonyG
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 29, 2021 7:37 am

They going to call it Hamner-Brown?

Anon
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
July 29, 2021 9:05 am

I think the phrase a “scientist claims” is a cue to readers to turn off critical thinking:

Is 14-legged killer squid found TWO MILES beneath Antarctica being weaponised by Putin?

A KILLER giant squid that can hypnotise its prey and paralyse humans at a distance of 150 feet using poisonous venom is being developed as a secret weapon by Vladimir Putin, a scientist has claimed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/735175/vladimir-putin-killer-octopus-organism-46-b-russian-army-secret-weapon-russia

In the old days, stuff like this used to be confined to the “comics section” of newspapers.

With standards like this, I think it is important that we take what “non-scientists” like Moncton have to say… and let the best argument prevail.

It seems to me that not only is the media bent on self-destruction but they are happy to take credentialed science along with it.

Last edited 1 month ago by Anon
hiskorr
Reply to  Dennis
July 28, 2021 6:38 pm

We know that mathematics, like biology, is a science, because it’s Racist!

Otteryd
Reply to  hiskorr
July 29, 2021 4:31 am

Per-lease – you are offending me.

Reply to  pochas94
July 28, 2021 6:09 am

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/23/scientists-use-ai-to-predict-sunspot-cycles/#comment-3233864
 
Willie Soon is a great friend. I spent time with him in Calgary and also in Boston. He is definitely one of the very best guys anywhere to drain a few beers with – brilliant, quick and funny.

Robertvd
Reply to  pochas94
July 28, 2021 2:50 pm

Ask yourself who can print all it needs to corrupt the system and is above the law. (and eliminates by doing so the purchasing power of your savings)

Dennis
July 28, 2021 2:59 am

No way, UN IPCC computer modelling cannot be wrong, the garbage the hacked email senders and recipients exchanged was too well thought through for the hoax to be exposed.

Climate Gate 1 & 2 batches of hacked emails.

And in Australia the computer modelling for a warming trend cannot be faulted, the creators ignored historic weather data earlier than 1910.

David Baird
July 28, 2021 3:21 am

Can anyone come with a better perjorative to describe any or all Climate Models? I like Fairy Tale as mine.

Andy Espersen
Reply to  David Baird
July 28, 2021 3:53 am

Hans Anderson, that great fairy tale author, wrote “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. Your “any or all climate models” remind me of the clothes manufactured by the fraudster tailors.

Don’t we just need one little boy shouting, “But he has got nothing on”.

Yooper
Reply to  Andy Espersen
July 28, 2021 7:01 am

It still goes on: didn’t someone just sell an “Invisible” art work for around $20K?

another ian
Reply to  Yooper
July 29, 2021 1:17 am

Hunter?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Yooper
July 29, 2021 3:32 am

Yes, one guy was trying to sell his invisible statue, for about $17,000. They showed a picture of him standing beside his statue, but of course, you could not see the statue because it was invisible, all you could see was the guy and a pedestal on which the invisible statue stood (I’m just assuming it was standing, since I couldn’t see it:).

But that’s not the best part. The best part is this invisible statue creator is getting sued by another guy who says his idea was stolen by the first guy! 🙂

MarkW
Reply to  David Baird
July 28, 2021 9:31 am

I just call them the sacred models, because that’s how the true believers regard them.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  David Baird
July 28, 2021 9:57 am

How about “Black Box Bullshit?” 😀

Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:22 am

Soon bleats about “failed climate predictions”, then predicts cooling.
comment image

“Top climate scientist”? What a joke.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sunsettommy
Ron Long
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:33 am

Old Muslim proverb: “He who spits toward heaven himself besmears”

Richard Page
Reply to  Ron Long
July 28, 2021 8:33 am

Old Italian proverb: “He that pisses into the wind gets a wet shirt.”

Reply to  Richard Page
July 28, 2021 10:06 am

Old salt: Don’t piss into the wind.

MarkW
Reply to  Jim B
July 28, 2021 12:07 pm

Old mountain man: Don’t eat yellow snow.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  MarkW
July 28, 2021 1:57 pm

Old Chinese saying when referring disparagingly to someone:
“He who speaketh from both ends.”

Reply to  Jim B
July 28, 2021 1:22 pm

You don’t tread on Superman’s cape 🎶

beng135
Reply to  Jim B
July 29, 2021 8:12 am

And you don’t mess around with Jim. Doot, dooty, doot, doot.

ht/ Jim Croce

Derg
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:33 am

Oh what a tangled web we weave ^

Richard Page
Reply to  Derg
July 28, 2021 8:35 am

Oh what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive
But how vastly we improve our style
When we have practiced for a while.

David Guy-Johnson
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:35 am

Soon isn’t “bleating”, get yourself a dictionary. You’re the one bleating as Soon is exposing your ignorance.

Last edited 1 month ago by David Guy-Johnson
Alan the Brit
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:45 am

And your source of this questionable graphic is??? You reference absolutely nothing, making it pointless & worthless!!!

Loydo
Reply to  Alan the Brit
July 28, 2021 4:00 am

You’re right I should have given a link.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/study-global-warming-hiatus-attributed-redistribution

Now about the fact that Soon is ignoring the 98% of the warming and keeping a straight face.

Derg
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 5:04 am

And yet the oceans water level is not accelerating 🤔

Reply to  Derg
July 28, 2021 6:51 am

PSMSL.org being a source of sea level data – government tide gages.

There are areas where the land is subsiding slowly, and areas where it is rising.

With lies from climate catastrophists, like the jerk who grafted a photo of a town sign in the Outer Banks of the US east coast onto a photo of flooding in Texas from a hurricane.

(Of course the Outer Banks are glorified sandbars, build there and you are at risk.)

With climate catastrophists blaming Globull Wurming for flooding in Germany:

  • happens, according to historical records
  • water dams were left full despite forecast of much rain
  • people were not warned of forecast of much rain

But it doesn’t matter as long as nuclear power plants are shut down?

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Derg
July 28, 2021 10:07 am

comment image

That’s a quadratic fit.
Not a linear one.

Stephen Philbrick
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 28, 2021 2:41 pm

Notice that the “acceleration” is 0.097mm (If one accepts the fit). For comparison purposes, the thickness of a typical fingernail is more than five times this amount.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Stephen Philbrick
July 29, 2021 2:25 am

There is peculiar property to acceleration.
Do you know what that is?

Dr. Chris Thompson
Reply to  Stephen Philbrick
July 29, 2021 6:12 am

0.097mm per year^2 is quoted.
If this is true, then over 100 years, that sea level rise from the acceleration alone accounts for 0.097 * 10^4mm, or 970mm.
That’s on top of the base linear rise, which looks something like 2mm a year, or a further 200mm over 100 years…
Hence the graph, extrapolated forward, suggests a total sea level rise of 1.2m over 100 years.
I’m not saying this is likely, or true, but the acceleration element is non-trivial, though 0.097mm is indeed a small value

Ted
Reply to  Dr. Chris Thompson
July 29, 2021 9:00 am

Not quite. In 100 years, the rate of rise will have increased by 970mm/century, but the rise due to acceleration during that century would be about half that amount. Either way, the amount of rise due to acceleration during the graphed period is much smaller than the margin of error for a linear fit. If only there were some long term tide gauges on some stable bedrock (say New York’s battery Park) so we could get more definitive numbers.

Derg
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 28, 2021 5:15 pm

Lol

meab
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 29, 2021 10:52 am

The acceleration was confirmed to be small (0.12) in a recent detailed analysis, however, the uncertainty (2 sigma) is quite large (.07), much larger than Univ. of Colorado claimed.

Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, 2019

Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean
sea-level changes, trend and acceleration

Michaël Ablain, Benoît Meyssignac, et. al.

The sea level has been almost completely flat in the last two years (you can even see that in your plot if you blow it up) – if that trend continues the small (and uncertain) acceleration will become even smaller.

Duane
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 5:35 am

What warming? Less than 1 deg C in nearly 200 years, during an interglacial period between glaciations?

pochas94
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 5:54 am

You mean he is ignoring 97 percent of settled scientists?

Larry
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 7:00 am

Meaningless link. When betting red or black at roulette I could have just as good of luck.

when in fact, the heat energy likely went elsewhere”

so it could have? But maybe not! Just in case! Maybe we better…..

Mickey Reno
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 9:09 am

Loydo, the link you provided is an NCEI summary, but it has the link to the actual paper which produced the graph. There is no paywall.

The paper itself has lots of expert opinion, lots of probability (high/med/low confidence crap that’s so reminiscent of IPCC BS) and lots of big numbers to impress. Imagine calculating the number of Zeta-Joules contained in the Earth’s oceans. I think there must be dozens of papers on that calculation alone, to prove it’s obseration and counting methods fit for purpose. Miles Allen’s name is associated, so I’m sure he guided the primary authors to the exactly proper conclusions. From the AR5 WG1 upload cache:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

Some tasty acknowledgements from the Key Uncertainties section at the end:

• Robust conclusions on long-term changes in large-scale atmospheric

circulation are presently not possible because of large variability

on interannual to decadal time scales and remaining differences

between data sets. {2.7}

• Different global estimates of sub-surface ocean temperatures have

variations at different times and for different periods, suggesting

that sub-decadal variability in the temperature and upper heat

content (0 to to 700 m) is still poorly characterized in the historical

record. {3.2}

• Below ocean depths of 700 m the sampling in space and time is

too sparse to produce annual global ocean temperature and heat

content estimates prior to 2005. {3.2.4}

• Observational coverage of the ocean deeper than 2000 m is still

limited and hampers more robust estimates of changes in global

ocean heat content and carbon content. This also limits the quantification

of the contribution of deep ocean warming to sea level

rise. {3.2, 3.7, 3.8; Box 3.1}• Robust conclusions on long-term changes in large-scale atmospheric

circulation are presently not possible because of large variability

on interannual to decadal time scales and remaining differences

between data sets. {2.7}

• Different global estimates of sub-surface ocean temperatures have

variations at different times and for different periods, suggesting

that sub-decadal variability in the temperature and upper heat

content (0 to to 700 m) is still poorly characterized in the historical

record. {3.2}

• Below ocean depths of 700 m the sampling in space and time is

too sparse to produce annual global ocean temperature and heat

content estimates prior to 2005. {3.2.4}

• Observational coverage of the ocean deeper than 2000 m is still

limited and hampers more robust estimates of changes in global

ocean heat content and carbon content. This also limits the quantification

of the contribution of deep ocean warming to sea level

rise. {3.2, 3.7, 3.8; Box 3.1}

Last edited 1 month ago by Mickey Reno
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mickey Reno
July 29, 2021 4:03 am

A Tour-de-Force of climate change uncertainty!

Our politicians are not uncertain, though. They plan on spending Trillions of dollars trying to control the Earth’s climate, even though there is no evidence the climate needs to be controlled or can be controlled by humans.

Loydo
Reply to  Mickey Reno
July 29, 2021 4:22 am

The point of posting it was to show that atmospheric warming is dwarfed by oceanic. Soon would know how much energy is now ‘banked’ in the ocean, so his “prediction” of cooling is nothing but disingenuous doubt-mongering.

He would also be well aware that the “but its only warmed by .06C bs” is bs and so do useful idiots like Pat Frank. Why average down to the ocean abyssal plain when the mixed layer at the surface is where the atmosphere interacts and where the temperature anomaly is now heading towards 0.8C. Why? To disinform that’s why.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/long_term_sst_global/glb_warm_e.html

Now well above the trend and showing NO sign of retreating and obviously, where the ocean goes the air above will follow.
Doubt-mongering bs all the way down.

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
July 29, 2021 8:53 am

The point of the refutations of your point is that it is impossible to know the temperature of the ocean to the degree you are claiming.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Loydo
July 29, 2021 9:10 am

Your intellectually fatuous insults notwithstanding Loydo, you haven’t refuted squat.

Analytically complete uncertainty bars would blacken the entire interior of your temperature plot.

Your claim is T±huge = physically meaningless.

And unlike you, I do the work.

And as climate models are predictively useless, neither you nor anyone else can say what, if anything at all, CO2 emissions do to the climate.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 9:41 am

Let’s see your straight face, Loydo, when it’s pointed out to you that the entire 1980-2012 change in heat content is equivalent to 0.06 C, which is 10x below the measured ±0.6 C systematic field measurement error of Argo floats.

The error bars show your great scientists are claiming to know global ocean temperature to ±0.01 C in 1980 and ±0.0034 C in 2012. Fat bloody chance.

And even were those numbers reliable (they’re not), you have to face a cosmic so what?

On what grounds is ocean warming bad, when we know equivalent warming must have occurred during very benevolent warm periods of the past.

And not only that, but by what evidence is that warming assigned to human CO2 emissions? Climate models are utterly useless, but nevertheless constitute the only run-to authority for all your fears.

Your side lost the climate debate in 2001. Were it not for the lying liars who continue to lie about it, the whole global warming thing would have dissipated into the wind 20 years ago.

It should have done, actually, 39 years ago after Jim Hansen misrepresented his Model II scenarios before Congress. He was never called on it, to the eternal shame of the Physics establishment.

Last edited 1 month ago by Pat Frank
Anthony Banton
Reply to  Pat Frank
July 28, 2021 10:56 am

“the entire 1980-2012 change in heat content is equivalent to 0.06 C, which is 10x below the measured ±0.6 C systematic field measurement error of Argo floats.”

Nope:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rog.20022

“4.3 Temperature Sensor Bias:
No example of significant temperature drift has been identified within the Argo array. The thermistor used in the SBE41 and SBE41-CP has a manufacturer’s stated accuracy of 0.002°C and stability of 0.0002°C yr−1. Identifying temperature drift without post-mission calibration is difficult. To date, no standard test designed to identify temperature drift is performed within RTQC or DMQC [Wong et al., 2012]. However, small numbers of instruments recovered and recalibrated after 4–9 month missions have shown no appreciable drift within manufacturer’s stated temperature accuracy [Oka and Ando2004]. More recently, temperature sensors of a few floats recovered after 3–5 years in the field have also not drifted outside these stated accuracies.

The error bars show your great scientists are claiming to know global ocean temperature to ±0.01 C in 1980 and ±0.0034 C in 2012. Fat bloody chance.”

Now, now:
You know they don’t.
Surely you are aware of the statistics of large sample sizes?
(Oh, of ~ 4000 Argo floats as of now).
Of course you are!

LOL the science of argumentum from personal incredulity.

https://argo.ucsd.edu/about/status/

Last edited 1 month ago by Anthony Banton
D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 28, 2021 11:34 am

Apparently you are not aware of the statistics of large sample sizes. Sqrt (N) metrics are only applicable to fixed populations, temporal and spatial. No one is fool enough to claim that with each cycle that a given float is sampling the same water as it did previously. Each measurement is a sample size of 1 and they cannot be chained together to manufacture greater accuracy.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
July 28, 2021 9:00 pm

Yet this is what climastrologers do, with a straight face.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 28, 2021 1:52 pm

Yup.

Hadfield, et al., On the accuracy of North Atlantic temperature and heat storage fields from Argo.

From the abstract:  The root-mean-square (RMS) difference in the Argo-based temperature field relative to the section measurements is about 0.6°C. The RMS difference is smaller, less than 0.4°C, in the eastern basin and larger, up to 2.0°C, toward the western boundary.

Castro, et al., Evaluation of the relative performance of sea surface temperature measurements from different types of drifting and moored buoys using satellite-derived reference products.

Table 2 average RMS error of floating buoys is ±0.7 C

These are both in situ field calibrations, Not recover and re-test.

The uncertainties arise from systematic measurement error. They do not decrease as sqrt(1/N).

When systematic error is present, adding measurements can often increase the final uncertainty.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Pat Frank
July 29, 2021 2:00 am

Who needs those boring, arduous measurements of actual water temperature when statistics will give the answer you want in seconds?

Richard Page
Reply to  Pat Frank
July 29, 2021 3:02 am

When you start adding temperature data to derive a mathematical average, the actual error ranges HAVE to be added together – basically the error range goes from the highest recorded datum point + error, to the lowest recorded datum point – error. Because this would produce an error range that would make any figures look ridiculous, most use a statistically derived artificial error range – a probability range that most of the recorded data would fit into without the inconvenient outliers. Basically once you start adding temperature data together, you can kiss off any idea at accuracy or precision whatsoever – any mathematically derived mean temperature that’s within about 2 degrees of reality is a frickin’ miracle.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 28, 2021 2:10 pm

The thermistor in the Argo float is not the major contributor to the uncertainty of its temperature measurement. The thermistor is a small part of the total system. The total system has a +/- 0.6C uncertainty due to various and sundry things such as debris in the water flow path, water salinity measurement, etc. It all adds up and there is no way to reduce it.

And, as has been pointed out to you multiple times, when you are measuring different things their average does NOT give you any kind of a “true value” no matter how accurately you calculate a mean. That implies that the mean is at *least* as uncertain as the uncertainty of the member data. In fact the uncertainty of the mean grows by the root-sum-square of the associated data uncertainties. No dividing by anything, no N or sqrt(N).

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Tim Gorman
July 29, 2021 2:28 am

measuring different things their average does NOT give you any kind of a “true value””

Obviously.
If you don’t like the 3rd dp then just round it.
It comes out in the statistics so why not publish it.

And so the obvious marked rise it OHC is due to uncertainties only going one way?
Obviously No.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 29, 2021 10:57 am

Calibration studies show that the typical systematic measurement error in land stations is toward greater (spurious) warmth.

Systematic measurement error from uncontrolled environmental variables need not be, and most often is not, symmetrical about zero.

Taking a clever approach to OHC studies, virtually no one has done the hard work of thoroughly evaluating the sources of error of, or carrying out extensive field calibration of, pelagic buoys. That clears the arena for folks like you to make hand-waving dismissals.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Tim Gorman
July 29, 2021 4:30 am

The total system has a +/- 0.6C uncertainty due to various and sundry things such as debris in the water flow path, water salinity measurement, etc. “

Could you give a link to the citation of that please?
Googled but cannot find.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 29, 2021 10:49 am

I gave you links to two papers indicating the uncertainties.

Forrest
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 29, 2021 3:30 pm

Anthony,

The issue is that you are using Google rather than knowing the information, and expecting to type in “The total system has a +/- 0.6C uncertainty due to various ” only to find out that if it is something technical Google almost always fails to deliver.

Go back to the sites that tell you the world is ending and that you just have to trust the experts that make money telling you so.

That way rather than have to read technical articles and think about things like Orbital decay, error bars, adjustments to raw data, etc…

Can CO2 be a portion of the increase in temperature. Yes. Is it the control knob that regulates temperature. Maybe, but probably not. In fact rather than an out gassing of CO2 from the Oceans we are seeing the opposite, an increase in CO2 concentrations – so called ‘acidification’ which is the OPPOSITE from my understanding of what should happen with increased water temperature.

No one needed to look to the oceans until the temperature stopped rising on land which then caused the Climate Alarmists to worry they were wrong and search for a POSSIBLE explanation.

Because otherwise – what were they doing this whole time? The Gravy train would end. etc and so on.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 30, 2021 4:37 am

Much of the info on the internals of the argo floats has been removed from the internet. Of particular interest is the water flow by the sensor package. As recently as five years ago you could find several articles on how that flow impacts the accuracy of the overall float. They have all seemingly disappeared. All you find now is the uncertainty of the sensor itself, not the float package.

I suspect you will have to do some digging to find the appropriate articles. Just because they have been disappeared doesn’t mean the float uncertainty is equal to the sensor uncertainty. Things just don’t work that way.

try here: https://www.seabird.com/sbe-41-argo-ctd/product?id=54627907875

It speaks a little to the efforts made to prevent water flow fouling in the float.

try here: https://www.eposters.net/pdfs/improving-argo-float-data-steps-toward-implementing-onoard-cell-thermal-mass-corrections.pdf

Last edited 1 month ago by Tim Gorman
Pat Frank
Reply to  Tim Gorman
July 30, 2021 9:32 pm

Thanks, Tim. That’s very useful information.

Duane
Reply to  Alan the Brit
July 28, 2021 5:34 am

His graph is “questionable” in the same way that Adolph Hitler’s political ideology was questionable.

M Courtney
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:57 am

Hello Loydo,

If that graph is correct then it disproves the IPCC mainstream science and disproves the belief in dangerous global warming.

It clearly shows that the warming is not in the atmosphere at all, rather it is all absorbed by the oceans.

That makes sense. Water is obviously a better storage medium for heat than air.

But all the feedbacks assume the heat is in the air. The increased atmospheric water vapour needs the heat to be in the atmosphere.
And, as the heat in the oceans is unable to discernibly change the temperature of the oceans – the temperature is buffered by literally oceans worth of water – AGW is not important.

Please share the source of your graph that so perfectly debunks dangerous anthropogenic global warming.

Scissor
Reply to  M Courtney
July 28, 2021 4:34 am

Ah but you see, it’s asymptomatic atmospheric warming and NOAA is busy working on testing for it.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  M Courtney
July 28, 2021 6:27 am

“the temperature is buffered by literally oceans worth of water – AGW is not important”.

LOL:
If ocean heat content, ergo also higher SSTs, doesn’t matter – then why does the atmosphere warm during an El Niño?
Why does it pause during a La Niña?(before AGW took hold – it used to cool)

The oceans warm the atmosphere, by virtue of land storing little (top few inches) it goes almost immediately into the atmosphere via convection. The oceans are the planet’s central heating system – especially for maritime parts of the NH – The NH gets a tad cold in winter well inland of ocean.

Ocean heat contributes a third to a half of SL rise, warmer SSTs provide more WV to the atmosphere to precipitate out. Drive storms. Feedback into the GHE (~ 60% of the total)

“But all the feedbacks assume the heat is in the air.”

Nope:
There’s one above – increased evaporation leading to WV +ve feedback to the GHE.
Warmer ocean waters penetrating into the Arctic ( Atlantification of the Barents FI) … less ice so absorb SW and melt and darker oceans (decreased albedo) allowing more SW absorption.
Warming oceans are less able to absorb CO2 – so reduced sink capacity means an enhanced build of atmospheric carbon from sources (natural + anthro).

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Arctic_sea_ice_succumbs_to_Atlantification

It’s most certainly important. Very.

M Courtney
Reply to  Anthony Banton
July 28, 2021 7:42 am

Good point. Warmer oceans would lead to more atmospheric CO2 that fails to warm the atmosphere. Instead it seems it warms the oceans.

Obviously, if this extra heat was significant we would have a runaway feedback and life would not exist. Thus you illustrate well that the heat is not temperature.

El Nino and La Nina are natural variations in the ocean heat distribution that do indeed dwarf the effect of AGW.
These are an interesting combination of factors.

If the hypothetical feedbacks existed that make AGW newsworthy – and the CO2 goes into the ocean not the atmosphere – then we would all be dead (before we were even born) from an El Nino being amplified in the way that AGW is imagined to be…

But obviously isn’t. Good point.

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 4:13 am

OMG! In 1970 the oceanic heat content must have been zero ZJ. An ocean at absolute zero! I think I was around in 1970 and, living near the sea shore, didn’t notice. I wonder why.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ed Zuiderwijk
Scissor
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
July 28, 2021 4:38 am

It’s a derived “anomaly.”

saveenergy
Reply to  Scissor
July 28, 2021 11:44 am

It’s a derived depraved “anomaly.”
There fixed it for you (:-))

Scissor
Reply to  saveenergy
July 28, 2021 2:15 pm

Thank you, spellin next was a strength of mine.

Knalldi
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 4:20 am

So the heat content of the oceans quadrupled within 30 years huh? Not bad
Apart from the metrologic nightmare to measure the heat content within the error levels that this graph suggests this graph is probably peak ridiculous.

Taking it at face value just shows how detached those scientists are from metrological realities and any common sense.

Btw funny that your source still claims need for better instrumentation where anyone involved in pecision measurements would probably give standing ovations to those claimed error levels for this measurement task.

But I guess it’s just a common theme to claim to know, but yet to not know precisely enough so further funding is necessary. The perfect Schroedinger’s claim.

Last edited 1 month ago by Knalldi
Peter
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 4:24 am

The planet has been in a warming cycle since the LIA peaked negatively in the late 1600s but there are many indications that it is now peaking and the next cooling cycle is beginning.

What is your point?

CD in Wisconsin
Reply to  Peter
July 28, 2021 10:16 am

Peter:

This is along the lines of what I was thinking when I looked at Loydo’s graph..

I had absolutely no idea the the history of the Earth’s atmosphere and the oceans started in 1980 and ended in 2012-13. I could have sworn that their histories went back thousands and millions and even billions of years before that. Oh well.

At any rate, NOAA and other govt agencies are not going to question the climate scare narrative when the guy in the White House and his administration are dyed-in-the-wool believers. They are probably very comfortable manipulating the science however necessary to provide what is need to maintain the alarmist status quo. Their jobs depend on it.

For the alarmists like Griff and Loydo, putting today’s meteorological events in historical perspective is probably worse than catching some dreaded disease. Doing so is far too threatening to the narrative.

rbabcock
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 4:50 am

What is this supposed to represent? The heat content in the top layers of the ocean? I see it ends in 2012 probably because the direction of the line changed to downward. If it is the top layers, the ocean has cooled significantly since then and is continuing to cool. We are heading to a cold period. South America is having a bad winter as is South Africa and if the La Niña comes back as predicted, North America historically will have one as well. Then the North Atlantic has flipped not boding well for Europe. I’m glad I live in a warmer area of the world because it is going to be “boo chilly” as they say around here.

You can post all these graphs based on phony numbers you want Loydo but when you are sitting in your flat this winter freezing you butt off because the windmills are frozen and the solar panels don’t work and there is no NG to power what is left of your power plants, reality will set in.

Mark BLR
Reply to  rbabcock
July 28, 2021 7:36 am

I see it ends in 2012 probably because the direction of the line changed to downward.

No, just because Loydo is “wrong” (this time) does not mean your extrapolation is “correct”.

OHC data from NOAA is only released quarterly. The “heat” data [ “h22-w0-*.dat” files ] up to Q1-2021 was posted to their “FTP” site [ https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/3month/ ] on the 27th of May …

Note that the ARGO network went “fully online” around 2005, hence the increase in resolution of the “0-2000m” data from that date.

PS : For “temperature deltas” data look in the “../3month_mt/” directory, global (or “World”, hence “-w0-” …) values in the “T-dC-w0-*.dat” files.

OHC_Energy_1.png
Last edited 1 month ago by Mark BLR
Jim Gorman
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 5:00 am

You considered yourself a scientist? If so, then post the temperatures that these zetajoules translate to if you dare. If you don’t or can’t, then don’t use these units without understanding what they mean!

Mark BLR
Reply to  Jim Gorman
July 28, 2021 7:41 am

… post the temperatures that these zetajoules translate to …

NB : I am not “Loydo” !

Note also that my “MEI” line is just a 3-month (rolling, centered) average of Klaus Wolter’s “bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index” dataset (V1 up to 1978, V2 from 1979), but “rescaled” by the simple expedient of dividing by 10.

OHC_Temps-100m_1.png
Last edited 1 month ago by Mark BLR
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Mark BLR
July 28, 2021 2:46 pm

Jim Gorman was not addressing your post, which didn’t exist when he posted a response to Loydo. Look at the date stamps.

Mark BLR
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 29, 2021 3:04 am

“Jim Gorman was not addressing your post …”

I knew that.

Experience has shown me that when “jumping in” the person being “Replied” to does not always notice that they are now dealing with a new participant, so to avoid potential confusion a clear indication is advisable.

paul courtney
Reply to  Mark BLR
July 29, 2021 8:26 am

Mr. BLR: Many years ago, my grade school teacher mispoke and was corrected by a student, and he said “I knew that.” Can’t let the kids know you were wrong now can you, might disillusion them. Experience has shown me that warmistas can’t admit error. Prove me wrong.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Mark BLR
July 29, 2021 10:08 am

What an utterly ridiculous response. That makes no sense whatever. Time stamps provide the time line and notifications are available.

Bob boder
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 5:24 am

Loydo
So the ocean is warming and the atmospheres not, how is that possible if CO2 in the atmosphere is the culprit?

David Blenkinsop
Reply to  Bob boder
July 28, 2021 7:01 pm

Wasn’t there an idea a while back that the nearly 20 year hiatus in atmosperic warming (i.e. no global warming detectable in the early 21st century), might be due to the extra heat building up and ‘hiding’ in the ocean depths?

I’d explain how this was supposed to work, but I seem to lack sufficient imagination. It’s embarrassing really, I mean here I thought I could B.S. pretty well, but I’m coming up as empty as can be..

Duane
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 5:34 am

Your graph is a fake … purely and simply fabricated outtayourass.

David Kamakaris
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 6:54 am

How about taking this graph a little further back in time, like maybe to the beginning of the Holocene.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 7:12 am

More fairy tales from failed troll Loydo. Pray tell us how we can know the temperature of every cubic metre of the ocean.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 8:09 am

Ah, the old “ocean ate my warming” excuse

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 8:32 am

Speaking of a “joke,” the link you provided refers to the work by Karl wherein he adjusted temperatures to align with inferior ship engine intake temperatures instead of using the modern ARGO buoys as the reference standard!

The apparent increase in “Heat Content” is meaningless because the high specific heat of water, and the huge volume of it, means that any changes in sensible temperature are negligible, as in “difficult to measure reliably.”

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 9:34 am

The entire warming amounts to only about 0.001C of warming.
Since even the most accurate of instruments are only guaranteed to about 0.05C out of the box, degrading as soon as you start using them. The claim that we can measure the temperature of the entire ocean with that degree of accuracy is prima facia evidence of deliberate fraud.

Beyond that, even if the oceans had warmed up by 0.001C, so freaking what?

Ted
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 9:47 am

The authors of the graph state that it was created using yearly data from an IPCC report. Not from an underlying study or composite, but the IPCC itself. There are two fundamental problems with this:
1) Every single line of every IPCC report is subject to editing by the government appointed flunkies that make up the IPCC, who are literally paid to edit the report based on the political whims of the people that appoint them. There is zero creditable data that originates in an IPCC report.
2) The report in question (Technical Summary of AR5 WG1) does not list yearly data for ocean heat content that the authors claimed to have used, either in its main body or supplementary material. Nor do the Chapters referenced by that section of the Summary, 10 (detection and attribution) and 3 (Ocean).

The graph is doubly fraudulent. Perhaps you were showing an example of a joke scientist.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 9:58 am

Start in 1980, end in 2012. Cherries are in season again!

Pick your period, pick your trend!

ThinkingScientist
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 10:10 am

My Mark 1 eyeball sees that the “heat content” would be negative before about 1975. So what exactly is it? If its some gross number versus a reference level then without knowing the reference value we cannot determine if the increase shown is material in any way.

Misuse of graphics to make a point where the actual impact may be indistinguishable from zero and unmeasurable.

Editor
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 3:38 pm

Loydo writes poorly as usual, because he makes no attempt to address the post at all.

No link posted for the poorly generated chart.

What a joke!

paul courtney
Reply to  Sunsettommy
July 29, 2021 8:29 am

Mr. tommy: I think it’s a troll technique to leave off any link, expecting to be called on it so they can respond haughtily and draw more responses.

Oddgeir
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 4:22 pm

The full 275-50=225 zettajoules amounts to an increase in insolation/irradience with of 0.17% of sunshine bombardment over 32 years.

Or if you will, an increase from 86400 seconds to 86551 seconds days for a total of 20 days.

/

An increase from 50 to 275 zettajoules would increase temperature in our oceans with how much, how deep to shift CO2 solubility how much?

Reader can silly-calculate on hir own.

Oddgeir

another ian
Reply to  Oddgeir
July 29, 2021 1:47 am

An example of cutting big numbers down to meaningful. Likely could be done for Zeta-joules too
comment image

Graemethecat
Reply to  another ian
July 29, 2021 8:24 am

Terrifying. This image should be more widely known, especially among Democrat voters..

MarkW
Reply to  Graemethecat
July 29, 2021 8:56 am

The only thing most Democrat voters want to know is when the next government check will arrive.

Charles
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 7:20 pm

<<units matter here>>

4168 joules to heat 1 kg water by 1 deg C
1.37e21 kg mass (ocean)

In graph above, between 1980 and 2010, ocean absorbed 2e23 joules (200 zetajoules)

To raise ocean by 1 deg takes 4.8e18 joules.

But ocean absorbed 2e23 joules, so ocean temperature went up 28 deg C in 30 years.

RickWill
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 7:40 pm

The average ocean temperature increased from 4C to 4.06C.

The ocean cannot get heat to depth through the surface in 50 years. The only physical explanation for the increase in deep ocean heat is reduced cooling. That is a consequence of reduced evaporation in the Southern Hemisphere as that water dominant region of the globe cools down.

Oceans have retained more heat due to surface cooling. You need to understand the system.

Southern Hemisphere is a long-term cooling trend and Northern Hemisphere in a long-term warming trend.

Last edited 1 month ago by RickWill
Jim G
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 11:11 pm

I see that graph and think: “here is a starting point based on what we think we know”.
As such, I would not expect it to be very accurate.

Last estimation of trees (which are far more accessible) was believed to be off by a factor of 8.

Trillions and Trillions of Trees make that ‘giant sucking sound’ of CO2 from the atmosphere – Watts Up With That?

The area of land that trees occupy is so much smaller than the volume of the oceans the odds that volumetric estimations would be very questionable.

In addition, do you really believe that the ocean heat content increased by a factor of 6 in forty years? Since we are talking about oceans, I think something is quite fishy.

John Edmondson
Reply to  Loydo
July 29, 2021 1:33 am

Why didn’t you put the graph in Kelvins Loydo? I’m not sure whether this is all the ocean or just the top 700m. Assuming it is the top 700m, 25 Zj is 0.025K.

Eyeballing your error bars I see +/- 0.01K. So you claim it is possible to measure the temperature of the ocean with this precision? I don’t think so.

BR,

John Edmondson

Javier
July 28, 2021 3:31 am

Risky prediction. Up to know every cooling prediction (Akasofu, Abdussamatov, Easterbrook) has been wrong.

Rate of warming is falling, but I see it unlikely that it will go significantly below zero. My own prediction is no significant warming in the first third of the 21st century.
comment image

Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 3:50 am

Wait for the AMO shifting and the coming La Niña. We will see.
The weather patterns we have now at least in Germany are to compare with these we had around the beginning cooling in the 70th.

Javier
Reply to  Krishna Gans
July 28, 2021 4:11 am

The Pause included a slight cooling period of 15 years and the big Niñas of 2007 and 2010. You are going to need quite a bit more to convince those that weren’t convinced then.

Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 5:12 am

I was thinking about time the coming iceage was a point of discussion.

Scissor
Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 5:17 am

In the context of some ten millennia of global cooling, a focus on 15, 30 and even 60 year cycles is somewhat absurd and yet here we are.

Reply to  Scissor
July 28, 2021 8:05 am

30 year cycles are significant for weather but have no meaning at all in terms of planetary climate.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 3:52 am

Chicken & egg here me thinks!!! Which came first rise in CO2 or warming!!! That’s the reason flabby Al Gore baby in his rather pathetic “An Inconvenient Truth” film, made sure his graphic artists drew the graph with the two elements well separated, so that he could make an “apparent” observation that you would have thought the two lines would fit together, which in truth was the last thing he & his fellow bleaters wanted, as it would have given the game away!!! How is he getting on in his $4M sea-front retirement home, he really did know just how gullible & naive the green public were!!!

Reply to  Alan the Brit
July 28, 2021 6:07 am

“Which came first rise in CO2 or warming!!! “

Atmospheric CO2 changes lag atmospheric temperature changes at all measured time scales.

The future cannot cause the past.

Graemethecat
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
July 29, 2021 3:31 am

The future cannot cause the past.

In Climate “Science” it jolly well can and does!!

MarkW
Reply to  Graemethecat
July 29, 2021 8:58 am

Teleconnections don’t just work across space, they also work across time.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Alan the Brit
July 28, 2021 8:43 am

 I’m wondering where Al Gore’s $4M sea front home is.
Or did you mean the $8.875M Montecito Villa, ocean-view, not sea-front, that the Gore’s purchased just before they “separated”, so Tipper could have a home for visitors and family. Al has a house in Nashville, and maybe some we don’t know about. For good reasons, such folks do not publicize their residential locations – note the plural.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  John Hultquist
July 28, 2021 10:13 am

Is the one in Nashville the one that uses more electricity than a small town? The 20,000 square foot “you little people need to reduce YOUR “carbon footprints” Gore mansion?

John Hultquist
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
July 28, 2021 2:46 pm

 How dare you. Al is saving Earth from the other 97% of us.
But , more less, you are correct. It’s complicated.

M Courtney
Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 3:59 am

Quite agree.
More than that I would say any prediction at the moment will be unjustified even if it tuns out to be right.
We just don’t know enough about the climate.
As Loydo demonstrates above, the key issue is the heat content of the ocean. We know nothing about that or about why the heat sometimes is absorbed and sometimes isn’t.

Burl Henry
Reply to  M Courtney
July 28, 2021 7:11 am

M Courtney:

” We just don’t know enough about the climate”

As I have repeatedly posted on this site, ALL of the changes in our climate are caused by changing amounts of SO2 aerosols in our atmosphere, of either volcanic or industrial origin so all that is needed to know about our climate is already known, but is being ignored by everyone

There is ZERO warming from CO2, and because of unpredictable volcanic eruptions, it is impossible to make any predictions about future temperatures, as Dr. Soon and others are doing.

However, I can make one prediction: if the burning of fossil fuels is abandoned, and there are no volcanic eruptions for about 4 years, temperatures will quickly soar to those of the MWP, when there were only 31 eruptions over a period.of ~ 300 years.

Loydo
Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 4:01 am

That excludes the ocean right?

Javier
Reply to  Loydo
July 28, 2021 4:32 am

That’s surface temperature, which has been and still is the main criteria for global warming. Good data on the ocean is too recent and too sparse. And the ocean is warming at a rate much lower than land (0.05ºC/decade for 0-700 m) and is capped at 30ºC.

rbabcock
Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 5:11 am

Maybe you ought to use a different database (one that hasn’t been adjusted)

https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1979/to:2021.5/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/to:2021.5

Dave Fair
Reply to  rbabcock
July 28, 2021 9:32 am

Are you attempting to show that the UAH6 trend is less than that of the HADCURT4?

Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 6:04 am

Hi Javier,

Our global cooling prediction of 2002/2013 (quoted below) is still valid. UAH LT Global has cooled 0.6C since Feb2020.

I hope you are correct (no significant warming in the first third of the 21st century”) but I will stand by my prediction of more global atmospheric cooling in the near future. I spoke with my friend and co-author Joe D’Aleo this week, and we both expect a return to La Nina conditions later this year. UAH LT Global follows Nino34 SST about 4 months later.
comment image
comment image
 
More importantly for humanity, we are now experiencing extreme-cold events worldwide that are a serious threat to crops – hundreds of such cold events are listed by Cap Allon at Electroverse.net.

Some extreme-cold events occurred circa 2008 at the end of Solar Cycle 23 and were the basis for my 2013 small revision of our 2002 global cooling prediction. Even though the UAH LT Global anomaly is only 0.0C, the jet streams have repeatedly dipped towards the equator, and have caused major harm to crops in both hemispheres..

In NH Summer of 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Great Plains of North America. Joe D’Aleo and I reported that event, but it was completely ignored by the mainstream media.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/

This year the global crop situation is much worse, in both hemispheres.
https://electroverse.net/a-catalog-of-crop-failures/

So I say we are already experiencing “significant cooling in the first third of the 21st century”, because any cold events that harm crops are highly significant, and they are happening now. It’s not just the average of UAH LT Global that matters, but the major cold events that are significantly harmful for humanity.

Best regards, Allan MacRae in Calgary.
_____________________

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/23/can-we-predict-long-term-solar-variability/#comment-3301171

A CATALOG OF CROP FAILURES
July 27, 2021 Cap Allon
What’s unique right now is that extreme weather seems to be pounding every key growing region of the globe, simultaneously. #GrandSolarMinimum
 
I would much rather have been wrong. This will end badly.
 
Earth is cooling – starting circa 2019 to early 2020. We predicted this solar-driven cooling in 2002. We were correct. .
 
Allan MacRae published in the Calgary Herald on September 1, 2002, based on communication with Dr Tim Patterson:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

MacRae updated his global cooling prediction in 2013, based on cold events that occurred starting circa 2008 near the end of Solar Cycle 23:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.

Javier
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
July 28, 2021 8:29 am

Hi Allan,

As you might remember I made a prediction for the 2018 Niño and 2020 Niña based on solar activity here at WUWT and at Judith Curry’s site:
comment image

Solar minimum and ENSO predictionENSO predictions based on solar activity
Based on solar activity and ENSO I also believed this Niña would be a 2-year one and in many comments at the time suggested that it might mean a return to Pause conditions (that would made Lord Mockton really happy).

I also wrote a very controversial article when I affirmed in 2019 that the planet was no longer warming. Great discussion.

The planet is no longer warming
So you know I am definitely in your camp, yet I don’t believe for a moment that any possible cooling until the mid-30s could be dangerous in general terms. We are not going back to the temperatures of the 1960s-70s, at most we could go back to the temperatures of the late 1980s and even that is doubtful. The most likely situation is that there is very little or no warming for the 2002-2035 period.

Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 11:11 am

Thank you Javier – I hope you are correct. I’m getting old and hate the cold.

However, if we continue to have significant crop failures due to cold spikes like 2019 or 2021 then that will be enough to demonstrate my point – and I think we are there now – we will see what the future brings.

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
July 28, 2021 11:35 am

Love you Allan (and Javier), but the crop/food system globally is well-buffered from “climate change”. Not buffered from politics, but food has always been grown in the weather. Mass starvation from farm failure due to weather is NOT going to happen, although a lot of other crap probably will.

Javier
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
July 28, 2021 1:46 pm

The problem for food is its price that it is tied to the price of oil.
comment image

The Media called it the Arab Spring giving the false idea that the arabs crave democracy. In reality they were part of what is called the hunger revolts triggered by high food/oil price combo that impacts the poor that expend a large part of their income on them.
comment image

Number of deaths in brackets. International interests took advantage of the revolts in Syria to trigger a war. It was a war with the ultimate goal of building a gasoduct to transport gas from Qatar to Europe. Syria is favorable to Iranian gas.

Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 7:43 pm

Excellent, thanks

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Javier
July 29, 2021 4:34 am

“The problem for food is its price that it is tied to the price of oil.”

The price of just about everything is tied to the price of oil because transportation costs apply to just about everything. If transportation costs go up, the cost of the things transported goes up, too.

The cost of transportation should be kept as low as possible in order to have a thriving economy.

Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
July 28, 2021 2:06 pm

Thank you Mike – I am not predicting mass starvation – but I am predicting significant crop failures.
Examples:
2019 – corn and soybeans failed due to wet and cold across the Great Plains of North America.
2021 – the grape and other other early fruit crop failed due to cold in France and Germany
These have already happened – watch S Africa and S America and Australia for crop failures.
Hope not.

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
July 28, 2021 10:50 pm

More on mass starvation, which I do not think will happen.:

One fallback if there are crop failures and food shortages is to take the huge USA corn crop , ~30% of which goes to fuel ethanol, and pivot it to food production. That should only take one growing season and would help if food shortages materialize.

The same could be done for palm oils used to make bio-diesel in the tropics,

To me, food-to-fuel never made sense.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
July 29, 2021 4:39 am

“2019 – corn and soybeans failed due to wet and cold across the Great Plains of North America.”

We are having some problems with hay this year in Oklahoma because of the cool, wet weather. It is keeping the farmers out of the field too much, and will reduce the hay total by one cutting, it is estimated.

It doesn’t have to get real cold to adversely affect crops, it just has to get cold at the wrong time.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 29, 2021 5:00 am

Thank you Tom – your comment rings true, but we won’t see it in the mainstream media, which obsessed about a recent ~4-day heat wave in the USA Northwest.

Here is the latest from Brazil.

HISTORIC COLD CONTINUES TO BATTER BRAZIL, WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED 33+ RIO GRANDE DO SUL MUNICIPALITIES SEEING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
July 29, 2021 Cap Allon
The harshest ‘cold wave’ in living memory is currently sweeping swathes of South America, further ravaging already decimated coffee and corn crops.
___________________________

Here is another downside to cold weather:

COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER
by Joseph d’Aleo and Allan MacRae, September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf

We published this paper and then revised it when the excellent study by Gasparrini et al appeared in The Lancet. We can expect many cold-related deaths this season in South America and the African continent.

Last edited 1 month ago by ALLAN MACRAE
Reply to  Javier
July 28, 2021 2:09 pm

Thank you Javier.

Actually I missed your 2018 post – will study further when time.

Best, Allan

fretslider
July 28, 2021 3:51 am

Slams Politicised Science

And where would politics be without the narrative driven media messaging service?

Recently, a new channel started broadcasting – GB News. Aiming for a diversity of opinion. They started well:

GB News criticised for platforming ‘dangerous climate change deniers’
26/06/2021

New UK broadcaster GB News has been criticised by environmentalists for giving a platform to climate change sceptics.

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/gb-news-criticised-for-platforming-dangerous-climate-change-deniers/ar-AALAnhe

Compared to the Waffen BBC…

“…a thoughtful BBC Trust report on impartiality cited the discussion [at the BBC 2006 seminar] and said it had settled the argument – as far as the BBC was concerned – on climate change.

Filmmaker John Bridcut wrote:

The BBC has held a high-level seminar with some of the best scientific experts [our emphasis] and has come to the view that the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus [on anthropogenic climate change].  The BBC is under a statutory obligation to remain impartial, so this gave the “brainstorm” a historic significance: the BBC has not previously abandoned impartiality in peacetime.

https://www.theregister.com/2012/11/13/climate28_named_wtf/

GB News’ dangerous denier was Matt Ridley and he was allowed to speak and make his points. At the BBC, however

the Corporation has strict rules about letting on guests who might say that the climate change threat is being exaggerated, even if their view and their facts fall within that consensus range.

The BBC now has a rule that if by some oversight a lukewarmer or skeptic does get on the air, he or she must be followed by a corrective interview from a scientist, setting the record straight.

Sure enough, I was followed by Sir David King, the former government chief science advisor. (He’s a qualified chemist, while I am a qualified biologist.)

I sat there open-mouthed as he beautifully demonstrated my point with one exaggeration after another.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/01/01/the-bbc-bob-ward-and-the-climate-catastrophists-attack-on-dissent/

Good luck to Dr Soon.

Last edited 1 month ago by fretslider
Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  fretslider
July 28, 2021 5:47 am

I’m glad I don’t live in England. Reading these comments makes me think life would be intolerable.

fretslider
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
July 28, 2021 6:39 am

Is life in Portland tolerable?

Texas billboard warns drivers to enter Austin ‘at your own risk’ after city reduces police budget Texas billboard warns drivers to enter Austin ‘at your own risk’ after city reduces police budget – CNN

It guess it depends on what you define as being tolerable.

Last edited 1 month ago by fretslider
Tom Abbott
Reply to  fretslider
July 29, 2021 4:45 am

“Texas billboard warns drivers to enter Austin ‘at your own risk’ after city reduces police budget”

That’s funny! Just what I would expect from conservative Texans. Good move! Tell it like it is.

MarkW
Reply to  fretslider
July 28, 2021 9:44 am

Like most politicians, whenever they hold a “conference”, they only invite people who’s positions agree with the politicians.
Then when the “conference” is over, they declare that since all the experts agree with them, there is no need to listen to anyone else.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
July 28, 2021 12:12 pm

Sounds a lot like Pelosi’s hand picked Jan 6th commission. The one where she excluded anyone who might disagree with her predetermined position.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  MarkW
July 28, 2021 9:06 pm

Along with all the exculpatory evidence.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
July 29, 2021 4:55 am

I hear Liz Cheney does not like herself being referred to as a Pelosi Republican.

And the Pelosi Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger was blubbering like a baby during the hearing about the Jan. 6 Capitol breakin. This guy needs to go seek some mental health help. He’ll probably have plenty of free time after the next election.

I bet he doesn’t like being called a Pelosi Republican, either. Well, that’s too bad because that’s what he is and he and Liz can expect to hear it in the future.

In their questioning at the hearing, Liz and Adam should ask how many times President Trump offered National Guard assistance to the Capitol police.

The answer is: Trump offered National Guard assistance two times, once three days before Jan 6, and once the day before Jan 6, where Trump also noted the growing crowd numbers in Washington DC to the security people, and both times his offer was turned down.

That doesn’t sound like a president bent on overthrowing a government. It sounds like a president bent on protecting the government.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
John Phillips
Reply to  fretslider
July 29, 2021 11:30 am

GB News attracted zero viewers during some of its broadcasts this week, according to official television audience figures produced by rating agency Barb, after a viewer boycott prompted by one of its presenters taking the knee in solidarity with the England football team.”

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/15/gb-news-shows-attracted-zero-viewers-after-boycott-over-taking-the-knee

griff
July 28, 2021 3:54 am

I don’t know how this man can continue to be put up by skeptics as a reputable scientist…

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 4:16 am

That is because you wouldn’t recognize one when he or she stared you in the face.

fretslider
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 4:16 am

You’re famous for not knowing things griff.

Keep it up.

fretslider
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 28, 2021 4:35 am

a grownup discussion

With a Guardianista? Good luck with that.

Last edited 1 month ago by fretslider
M Courtney
Reply to  fretslider
July 28, 2021 4:43 am

Don’t de-platform us Guardianistas because we disagree with you. Engage in debate.

fretslider
Reply to  M Courtney
July 28, 2021 4:57 am

They don’t and they won’t.

It’s easy to get banned and I did. I don’t do groupthink.

MarkW
Reply to  M Courtney
July 28, 2021 9:47 am

He didn’t de-platform you, he just declared that having an adult conversation with you was impossible.

Derg
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 5:06 am

Reputable like Mann 😉

Jim Gorman
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 5:16 am

If a pure ad hominem is all you have, then you are not worth listening to.

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 5:28 am

And the Griff slander starts again!

Gregory Woods
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 6:00 am

Good grief, gullible Griffy: Can you be even be stupider than that?

MarkW
Reply to  Gregory Woods
July 28, 2021 9:47 am

Whenever you think griff can’t go any lower, he does.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
July 29, 2021 5:10 am

Character assasination is the last resort of those like Griff, who have no argument.

They can’t beat you with the facts, so they smear your character instead. It’s called “K!ll the Messenger”.

I don’t know why Eric thinks this is beneath Griff, when he does it all the time. Dr. Crockford comes to mind.

JeffC
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 9:15 am

Simple. Because he is unlike some others.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 9:46 am

I have yet to see anyone put up any evidence that Dr. Soon isn’t a reputable scientist.

I’m sure you will drag out the long disproven lie that Dr. Soon once accepted some money from an oil company.

Of course, if this line of thinking had any merit, every pro-alarmist scientist who was ever accepted any money from a government would be instantly disqualified as well.

John Phillips
Reply to  MarkW
July 28, 2021 12:23 pm

I have yet to see anyone put up any evidence that Dr. Soon isn’t a reputable scientist.

I’m sure you will drag out the long disproven lie that Dr. Soon once accepted some money from an oil company.

It’s true. All of Soon’s funding since 2002 to at least 2012 came from fossil fuel interests, according to documents obtained under FOI

He receives almost no federal funding so is dependent on attracting grants from the private sector. The grants totalled over $1.2 million and have included $409K from Southern Company Services, a subsidiary of the Southern Company and $230K from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. He failed properly declare this on several of the papers (or ‘deliverables’ as he amusingly describes them) that were funded by oil and coal interests.

But what of his science? Well, this has been described by Gavin Schmidt of NASA as ‘almost pointless’. He was coauthor on the infamous Soon and Baliunas paper, a study so poor half the editorial board of the journal that made the mistake of publishing it felt constrained to resign at the failure of the review process. He is a proponent of the idea that solar activity is the cause of global warming and CO2 plays a minor role. Let us be kind and just say this puts him in a minority. 

More here.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 28, 2021 3:10 pm

But what of his science? Well, this has been described by Gavin Schmidt of NASA as ‘almost pointless’.

Making it the highest praise possible, considering its source. Gavin Schmidt is the epitome of a laughing stock … even worse than his predecessor.

The Climate Research Unit in England, the home of Hadley temperature data was funded by Royal Dutch Shell … so by your logic it has no value. Th very fact that Dr. Soon is independent of government for his funding proves superior integrity. Government has a far bigger axe to grind than the fossil fuel industry.

Learn some logic!

Richard Page
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 29, 2021 3:21 am

I don’t know why John Phillips is so against big oil money – Gavin Schmidt has been involved in it for decades, all major climate scientists, activist groups and charities have received big oil money grants at one time or another – some wouldn’t exist without the support of big oil money. It’s universal – to call it out for one individual is the height (or maybe depth) of insanity; are you really that insane, John Phillips?

John Phillips
Reply to  Richard Page
July 29, 2021 6:31 am

I have no problem with oil, coal or any corporate funding. But surely we can agree that the sources of such funding should be disclosed? One of Soon’s contracts specifically prohibited him from revealing the name of the company that was paying him, which made the declaration of interests required by most journals somewhat problematic. LOL.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 7:03 am

BFD.

Has nothing to do with the truthfulness of his message.

TonyG
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
July 29, 2021 7:52 am

The funding issue is a classic example of ad hominem, where the entire line of attack is to try to discredit the person making the argument, rather than addressing the argument being made. It is often successful as it distracts from the central argument, as can be seen here.

If funding sources are a problem, then that would apply to all research, since it all has to be funded from somewhere.

John Phillips
Reply to  TonyG
July 29, 2021 8:57 am

The issue is more that Soon failed to disclose his funding in 11 journal articles, in contravention of those journals’ ethics standards.

I have also linked to two critiques of his woefully poor science, here and here.

Richard Page
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 9:45 am

What about all of the climate alarmists that failed to disclose funding from oil companies or foreign governments in their research? Why have they not been held to account on your quest for transparency?

John Phillips
Reply to  Richard Page
July 29, 2021 12:09 pm

Examples?

Richard Page
Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 3:36 am

Examples? They are so widespread as to be practically universal. Any scientist, activist or organisation receiving money from the Rockefeller charitable foundation or the Soros charitable foundation as both are fossil fuel money (oil and coal mostly). Most of David Suzuki’s money comes or came from his fossil fuel investments. All researchers at Universities across the USA, Europe and UK receive grants from fossil fuel companies. In fact it would be fair to say that the level of climate research would simply not be possible WITHOUT fossil fuel funding in one form or another.

John Phillips
Reply to  Richard Page
July 30, 2021 6:51 am

All true, but not examples of climate alarmists that failed to disclose funding from oil companies or foreign governments in their research

Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 8:40 am

Bullsh!t!

MarkW
Reply to  TonyG
July 29, 2021 9:02 am

I notice John has no trouble with “scientists” being 100% dependent on government grants.
Especially when the politicians are making it perfectly clear that they expect the funded scientists to support the party line.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  TonyG
July 29, 2021 11:01 am

Exactly right.

Richard Page
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 9:32 am

Correction – the contract was with the Smithsonian not Dr Soon. It’s standard practice with the Smithsonian (and other organisations) not to disclose funding sources, especially for specific enquiry, so as to maintain a certain degree of impartiality with the researchers. Do you have a problem with impartial research, John Phillips?

John Phillips
Reply to  Richard Page
July 29, 2021 12:16 pm

 It’s standard practice with the Smithsonian (and other organisations) not to disclose funding sources”

Of course it is not (unless you’re the GWPF, or Heartland). Nearly all journals require potential conflicts of interest, including funding, be declared before publishing research. The Smithsonian itself tightened up its policy in this area after the Soon scandal.

The new Smithsonian policy requires all staff members to disclose to publishers of their articles “each source of funding above $10,000 for any scholarly research that they conducted and relied upon in drafting a particular manuscript.” Asked about possible loopholes, such as multiple groups’ providing amounts just below the threshold, Mr. Gibbons, the spokesman, said the institution’s leaders “expect and rely on our scientific staff to conduct themselves in an ethical manner.”

https://www.chronicle.com/article/a-year-after-a-climate-change-controversy-smithsonian-and-journals-still-seek-balance-on-disclosure-rules/

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Richard Page
July 29, 2021 9:52 am

AGW true believers seem to be in love with logical fallacies. They’d have no arguments at all without them. Phillips is no exception. They always mention the Koch Bros. … but artfully omit that the Kochs also fund PBS programs like NOVA and about 100 universities. They never mention the massive disparity between their public funding and the relatively tiny amout of private funding skeptics receive.

MarkW
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 29, 2021 12:39 pm

Koch brothers bad, evil.
Soros good.

As always, liberals define good and bad based solely on whether they are benefiting or not.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  MarkW
July 29, 2021 12:53 pm

You’ll notice that the alarmist AGW true believers always support the socialist/Marxist activists over valuable, productive citizens. Soros is the contemporary Maurice Strong with a record of actively trying to overthrow Western society. The Kochs have proven to be model citizens … we can’t have people like that.

Bob boder
Reply to  John Phillips
July 28, 2021 5:47 pm

This nonsense has been debunked more times then I can count.

MarkW
Reply to  Bob boder
July 28, 2021 6:56 pm

The alarmists aren’t smart enough to think up new lies, so they just recycle the old stuff.

MarkW
Reply to  John Phillips
July 28, 2021 6:55 pm

More lies from the master of lies.
Heartland received a single grant, several years earlier from a fossil fuel company. That grant was for a dedicated project that had nothing to do with climate change. The grant was also several years prior to Dr. Soon being employed by Heartland.

I love the way you just assume that getting grants from the private sector is disqualifying. Then again you have a long history of assuming government can’t be wrong.

I also love how you just assume that whatever propaganda you alarmists put out must be true and repeat it without pausing to think about how ridiculous your claims are.

John Phillips
Reply to  MarkW
July 29, 2021 2:43 am

Who mentioned Heartland? Not me. The fossil fuel grants arrived via Soon’s employment as an astrophysicist at the Smithsonian, and are fully documented. Just Google it. I didn’t link them to his science: I was just correcting the misinformation that Soon never received oil money, when almost his entire output was in fact fossil-fuel funded.

As to the quality of his science, more here.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 5:15 am

The University got the oil money grants. Soon got paid by the University, not the oil companies.

John Phillips
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 29, 2021 6:11 am

False. Soon does not receive a salary or any funding from the Smithsonian. The outside grants are his only source of research income and were basically commissions for Soon to write specific papers on specific topics, often proposed by him. In the case of work funded by Southern Company he provided a preview copy to his sponsors ‘for comment and input’.

His failure properly to declare funding sources in some published papers triggered an investigation by the Smithsonian Inspector General. Not a good look.

Wei-Hock (Willie) Soon is a part-time researcher at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, Mass. He was hired to conduct research on long-term stellar and solar variability. The Smithsonian does not fund Dr. Soon; he pursues external grants to fund his research.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 10:02 am

The Smithsonian does not fund Dr. Soon; he pursues external grants to fund his research.

So what? Unless you can show that it affects the outcomes of his research, your comments are no more than the typical ad hominem expected from alarmists. Your entire case is founded on obvious logical fallacies.

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 29, 2021 11:05 am

I was just correcting Tom Abbott’s misapprehension.

I’ve provided several examples of Soon’s less than rigourous scientific work.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 12:47 pm

Perhaps lacking rigor to the likes of you, meaning it fails to meet the alarmist low standards of fraudulent pseudo science. However we’re remarking on your ad hominem regarding Dr. Soon’s funding which has nothing to do with rigor. It’s just jealous, personal attack.

You said …

He is a proponent of the idea that solar activity is the cause of global warming and CO2 plays a minor role.

Gavin Schmidt needs to actually disprove that instead of calling it “pointless”. Perhaps you can provide the empirical evidence to help Gavin out … since Schmidt is only good at shooting his mouth off and nothing more. It looks like Soon is right and you people are wrong.

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 29, 2021 1:49 pm

I made no ad hominem attack. MarkW posted this

I’m sure you will drag out the long disproven lie that Dr. Soon once accepted some money from an oil company.

I merely and truthfully pointed out, with evidence, that virtually all of Dr Soon’s research was in fact funded by fossil fuels interests, and on occasions he had been less than forthcoming about this money. I made no adverse inference about his work based on his funding, in fact I specifically wrote ‘ I didn’t link them (the grants) to his science.’

You don’t seem to have read Gavin’s critiques so here is the gist of one of them

…most of Soon’s work has been related to finding correlations of a very specific solar reconstruction (see figure below) to some observational time-series. There are very real criticisms that can be made of the solar forcing time-series he uses, and of course, of the cherry picking of specific time-series without mentioning that correlations to others (such as the global mean) are very low, but even accepting all that, there is a much more fundamental problem.

It is most succinctly highlighted in an article Soon wrote ‘It’s the Sun, stupid’ (not sure if it was ever really published anywhere, but he did send it to his contacts at Koch Industries). Towards the end he states:

“The evidence in my paper is consistent with the hypothesis that the Sun causes climatic change in the Arctic. It invalidates the hypothesis that CO2 is a major cause of observed climate change – and raises serious questions about the wisdom of imposing cap-and-trade or other policies that would cripple energy production and economic activity, in the name of “preventing catastrophic climate change.”

It is the leap from the first to second sentence that drives Soon’s research – the notion that if you can find enough correlations to solar forcing, the impact of CO2 must be diminished, if not obliterated altogether. But this is a fallacy. It is equivalent to arguing that if total caloric intake correlates to weight, that exercise can have no effect, or that if cloudiness correlates to incident solar radiation at the ground, then seasonal variations in sunshine are zero. The existence of one physical factor affecting a variable in a complex system says nothing whatsoever about the potential for another physical factor to affect that same variable.

Even if the correlations existed at the level Soon claims (and they don’t – see figure), it would still not indicate that CO2 had zero effect, and indeed, it could never do so”

Gavin also demonstrates that if you extend the Soon’s supposed Solar/Temperature correlation, it completely breaks down in more recent years. That’s part of what I meant by Soon’s lack of rigour.

Much the same point was made by Skeptic magazine:

Soon’s main claim to fame, however, is his interpretation of the historical data of solar radiation on the earth, and his argument that increased solar input explains global warming. This research has been thoroughly debunked many times, mostly because Soon has misinterpreted the data source, misused statistics, and cherry-picks the results that support his predetermined conclusions. More importantly, even if it were true that the solar input were increasing (when it has actually been decreasing for the past 45 years), the difference in the amount of solar radiation is minuscule. It would not make nearly enough difference in the global temperature compared to the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming. Yet Soon has testified many times that the warming of the earth is due to the sun, not man-made causes, and makes his living now claiming that anthropogenic climate change is not real.

https://www.skeptic.com/insight/willie-soon-be-gone/&nbsp;
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/the-soon-fallacy/

WUWT Soon.gif
Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 3:06 pm

That entire method is ad hominem. You merely provide more evidence of ad hominem. What does it matter who provides his funding? It should not be an issue at all.

Apart from your obvious Gish-galloping, there is still no empirical evidence that increasing CO2 is either causing temperatures to rise or causing any harm. Insofar as it was a C&P from Gavin Schmidt, it’s almost certainly filled with nonsense. He’s an annoying gadfly.

Please falsify the null hypothesis for us.

“Yet Soon has testified many times that the warming of the earth is due to the sun, not man-made causes, and makes his living now claiming that anthropogenic climate change is not real.

And he’s 100% correct about that. I’ve seen no evidence to indicate otherwise … quite the reverse in fact.

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 29, 2021 4:30 pm

You clearly don’t understand the term. It would be ad hominem if I had said Dr Soon’s work is suspect because of his funding. Can you find where I did that? No, because I did not.

Hilariously, your non-rebuttal rebuttal of Gavin’s critique is pure ad-hom ‘it’s almost certainly filled with nonsense. He’s an annoying gadfly.’

Mike Lockwood is Professor of Space Environment Physics at the University of Reading, he has published nearly 400 papers, mainly on variations in the magnetic fields of the Sun, interplanetary space, and the Earth and solar influence on global and regional climate. His collected lectures were published in book form as The Sun, Solar Analogs and the Climate. No ‘gadfly’, he quite literally wrote the book. Prompted by the egregious movie the Great Global Warming Swindle – which also posited a solar explanation for GW – he reviewed recent trends in global temperatures and every type of solar activity and published the paper Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Here’s the abstract

There is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earth’s pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.

I look forward to a detailed exposition of where Professor Lockwood (and many others) is wrong and Dr Soon is correct. I’ll wait.

Last edited 1 month ago by John Phillips
Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 5:49 pm

I have no problem with oil, coal or any corporate funding. But surely we can agree that the sources of such funding should be disclosed?

Clearly you are defending the practice of mentioning funding to distract from the argument or discussion. That is ad hominum.

Hilariously, your non-rebuttal rebuttal of Gavin’s critique is pure ad-hom ‘it’s almost certainly filled with nonsense. He’s an annoying gadfly.’

I figure it’s a fair exchange for your appeal to authority. Schmidt’s allegations are no more believable than anything else emanating from NASA. I never even mentioned Mike Lockwood

I look forward to a detailed exposition of where Professor Lockwood (and many others) is wrong and Dr Soon is correct. I’ll wait.

You can look forward until hell freezes over (since the issue was never about his work) but I’ll look into it when I see your falsification of the null hypothesis. Oh, and BTW please point out the source of energy responsible for warming our planet.

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 30, 2021 1:21 am

Clearly you are defending the practice of mentioning funding to distract from the argument or discussion. That is ad hominum.
 
It is not remotely ad hom. Again, I was just correcting MarkW’s false statement.
 
You can look forward until hell freezes over (since the issue was never about his work) 
 
Thought so. What is the issue exactly, then? Both Schmidt and Lockwood eviscerated the solar/temperature link which is Soon’s go-to hypothesis. (others on request – Eg see also Leif Svalgaard’s writings at this very blog). Your only rebuttal has no substance and consists in full of a personal slur. If only there was a term for that type of fallacious argument 😉

The greenhouse gases we have emitted have enhanced the natural greenhouse effect, causing a radiative imbalance. There’s a simple null hypothesis for objects that are absorbing more radiation than they are emitting.

They get warmer.

 

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 4:27 am

“There’s a simple null hypothesis for objects that are absorbing more radiation than they are emitting.They get warmer.”

Look around, John. It’s cooling. CO2 Up, Temperatures Down.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 10:41 am

Are you actually suggesting that the The Sun is not this planet’s primary source of energy?

The greenhouse gases we have emitted have enhanced the natural greenhouse effect, causing a radiative imbalance.

You’re dreaming. That’s pure wishful thinking with no supporting evidence. The planet has been warming since the end of the LIA. If humans were the culprit it wasn’t their CO2 that caused it … no correlation. During the 1940s CO2 began to rise, while temps were dropping until the late 1970s. From 1997 to the present, while CO2 rose, there have been two pauses in temperature rise.

There’s a simple null hypothesis for objects that are absorbing more radiation than they are emitting.

Except this planet isn’t getting warmer. It’s cooling.

The Good, the Bad and the Null Hypothesis
By David Middleton

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/17/the-good-the-bad-and-the-null-hypothesis/

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
July 31, 2021 2:14 am

Are you actually suggesting that the The Sun is not this planet’s primary source of energy?

I never said anything resembling that. I showed that the trend in solar activity would actually have produced cooling over the last few decades, when the global trend is actually warming.

You’re dreaming. That’s pure wishful thinking with no supporting evidence. 

It is established science, measured by surface sensors and satellites. Willis Eschenbach wrote two articles about it on this very site in the past few weeks.

The planet has been warming since the end of the LIA. If humans were the culprit it wasn’t their CO2 that caused it … no correlation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21691

During the 1940s CO2 began to rise, while temps were dropping until the late 1970s. From 1997 to the present, while CO2 rose, there have been two pauses in temperature rise.

Do you think if there were no anthropogenic warming, the global temperature plot would be a perfectly level flat line? Of course not. The GHG warming is a gradual trend superimposed on stochastic variability. Yes there are pauses, but if you really think the decadal trend is cooling, there is little anyone can do for you.

WUWT Giss.jpg
Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
July 31, 2021 3:11 pm

“Yet Soon has testified many times that the warming of the earth is due to the sun, not man-made causes, and makes his living now claiming that anthropogenic climate change is not real.

Yep, just as I thought … the Sun is warming the Earth, exactly as it always has. Nothing has changed. CO2 didn’t warm the planet in the past and it isn’t now. At best it is hypothetically one of the many, many factors which can contribute to warming, but there is no evidence that the human component is doing so at present. Of far more importance are the factors cooling the planet.

The GHG warming is a gradual trend superimposed on stochastic variability.

Naw, I don’t believe in faerie tales or unicorns. You have no evidence to support such a belief.

Yes there are pauses, but if you really think the decadal trend is cooling, there is little anyone can do for you.

I’m not the least bit interested in “decadal” anything. I’m interested in geological trends that show that the planet is cooling. If you believe there is some change from stochastic variability, “gradual” or otherwise, I have a bridge to sell you.

Are Government Temperature Graphs Credible?

“Ninety years ago, the New York Times reported unanimous consensus that Earth’s climate was controlled by the sun.”

https://realclimatescience.com/are-government-temperature-graphs-credible/

John Phillips
Reply to  Rory Forbes
August 1, 2021 4:34 am

Now you are just ignoring every assertion I’ve made and inserting your own long-discredited, lame talking points.

Waste of time.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Phillips
August 1, 2021 11:00 am

I’m merely correcting your assertions with facts. If you would only try a bit of logic and stop believing the propaganda, your mind might clear. When you begin with a faulty premise your “science” will always be wrong. There is no “climate crisis”.

You English have completely lost the plot. Marxism doesn’t work.

Nick Kilenyi
Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 12:51 am

It’s “rigorous”.

Elementary spelling errors do nothing to improve your credibility.

John Phillips
Reply to  Nick Kilenyi
July 30, 2021 4:26 am

Anyone who can only think of one way to spell a word obviously lacks imagination.

– Mark Twain.

I am English, we write ‘rigour’ and ‘colour’ rather than ‘rigor’ and ‘color’. The standard adjective would be ‘rigorous’, but rigourous is also good, if ‘non standard’.

Anything of substance to contribute?

Nick Kilenyi
Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 1:17 pm

I seem to have touched a nerve with the Phillips troll. Good!

Care to explain why global temperatures actually fell from 1940 to 1980, at a time CO2 concentrations were increasing?

Forrest
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 3:52 pm

<sigh> John,

1 )where do you think someone who is anti-establishment would get their funding?

2 ) RealClimate often simplifies things to the point of idiocy and often times gets things wrong as well. So can you point to all of those or do you only accept their analysis?

3 ) How many issues are there with the IPCC papers? Are Tornadoes increasing, what about wild fires, what about droughts, what about HURRICANES? Almost all of this is a HISTORIC NOPE.

Look this is not to say CO2 cannot increase temperature. The problem is that the amount of increase and long term effects are based on methods and data that are… Probably incorrect.

Not only that but there are so many issues with the science that I wish more people where at least attempting to poke holes in it.

Now that does not mean that they will always be CORRECT either. Being skeptical means you are skeptical both ways.

Why would CO2 not control the temperature. What if it does?

The truth is there are a myriad of ways to get rid of fossil fuels and the political elite ONLY allow for wind and solar. Which is foolishness.

We have no idea about the long term consequences of moving to Solar and Wind just as we did not know if there were any long term consequences to oil and gas.

Any way. Your point is simply one in which you are trying to get a rise out of others, Mann has been discredited, Hansen has been discredited, Does that make the whole of their work toxic?

Stop it and actually go through the thought process of ‘maybe this is not as bad as being made out’ and see where you get.

John Phillips
Reply to  Forrest
July 29, 2021 4:33 pm

Mann has been discredited, Hansen has been discredited

I must have missed that memo. Remind me?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Phillips
July 30, 2021 4:31 am

“I must have missed that memo.”

You need to read Mark Steyn’s book about Mann. Then you will be up to snuff on Michael Mann. Mark quotes a lot of scientists in his book that are not impressed with Michael Mann or his climate change work.

John Phillips
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 30, 2021 6:21 am

Steyn ?! Well, I was hoping for something from somebody impartial and vaguely qualified. Hey ho.

“Now, I know a lot of people won’t care. For whatever reasons, a lot of people will love Steyn’s book no matter what. They will continue to love the idea of him providing 120 quotations from “experts” they can use as talking points, no matter what. It won’t matter that some of the quotes weren’t in reference to Michael Mann, his work or anything related to it. It won’t matter that many of the quotes have their meanings distorted due to being heavily quoted mined. It won’t even matter that by my current count, 71 of those 120 quotations qualify as misquotations.

Brandon S.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  John Phillips
July 29, 2021 4:44 am

err…. you can’t fix stupid.
there always has been only a minority of sensible people.
Co2 is 0.04% of the air chemical inventory.

It’s lucky that plants are smart enough to be able to lock such a tiny amount in at all.
Halve that amount and millions may die of starvation, because very little would grow.

Fraizer
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 11:39 am

I don’t know how this man can continue to be put up by skeptics as a reputable scientist…

FIFY

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Fraizer
July 29, 2021 5:16 am

Well, I laughed out loud reading that one! I couldn’t help it.

Editor
Reply to  griff
July 28, 2021 3:48 pm

Griff,

Yet you fail to make a credible criticism of this post content, too hard for you perhaps?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Sunsettommy
July 29, 2021 5:17 am

Impossible for him.

Jocko
July 28, 2021 4:07 am

Global cooling, So the government scientists have invented a global air conditioning system they can tax us for? (sarc)

Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 4:31 am

Well I realize that he tries to speak to a non-scientific audience, but is Soon really doubting the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere?

I thought that the shortening of the free path length of photons at about 15 microns by additional CO2 in the atmosphere is a well established fact and this will affect the atmosphere and the glaciers under it (probably not as much as some alarmists predict, but still it seems to me that Soon is a bit off track here).

rbabcock
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 5:58 am

Keep in mind not all photons and in fact not most photons. The argument is how much impact does increasing CO2 have on temperature? Does adding one more CO2 molecule to 10,000 air molecules cause runaway warming? It has some impact no doubt, but is it relatively inconsequential or consequential?

Last edited 1 month ago by rbabcock
Laws of Nature
Reply to  rbabcock
July 28, 2021 6:15 am

No, the average free path length reduces for all photons of that band. The direct warming is expected to be about 1°C for a doubling from 280 to 560ppm if my memory serves me right, which if true will affect the glaciers and polar ice caps, even without the mysterious IPCC feedback.

And my question remains, if Soon denies that, which seems very odd since this seems established science, we know the composition of the atmosphere well enough and we have very good lab data about the addition of CO2 to gas mixtures.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 7:15 am

“Expected to be” means model-based, as opposed to reality-based. Can you say “negative feedbacks”? I knew you could.

Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 8:14 am

Established science seems very close to consensus science. I see no reason why it cannot be challenged, especially in the context of the entire planetary atmosphere.

Stu
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 8:17 am

I would be surprised that lab data would give you true insight into a multivariant chaotic system which is the climate. How do they do turbulence in the lab?

Laws of Nature
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 10:01 am

Like I said the direct CO2-effect is well understood.
“negative feedbacks”, “turbulence”, “challenge established science”
seem all very OFF topic when it comes to the direct CO2 effect.
Please provide sources for it!

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 12:12 pm

For a good perspective on the whole doubling effect I recommend Willis Eschenbach’s recent post here:

Keeping Things In Balance – Watts Up With That?

A very excellent review of the 3 w/m2 issue in context.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 28, 2021 10:32 am

The direct warming is expected to be about 1°C for a doubling from 280 to 560ppm if my memory serves me right

That “expectation” is a purely hypothetical effect, and incorporates a gigantic, vital, and in general, completely ignored assumption – it’s called “all other things held equal.”

Meanwhile, back here in what we call “reality,” those “other things” have never, are not now, and will never be “held equal.”

By the time the Earth’s feedbacks have finished with your hypothetical one degree per doubling of atmospheric CO2, the actual effect will not be distinguishable from zero.

Which is why there is no empirical evidence that supports any such “effect” of atmospheric CO2 on temperature.

Laws of Nature
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
July 28, 2021 8:59 pm

You sound confused.

The 1°C per doubling is not “my number” but an empirical value based on measured data, there is no published literature doubting the effect additional CO2 has on the before mentioned average free path length.

It is your feedbacks on the other hand, particularity the strong negative ones you seem to postulate, which are highly speculative.
Any published work on those has dozens of contradictionary published answers.
This makes your argument highly hypothetical.

Do you doubt that additional CO2 reduces the average free path length for all photons of that 15micron band? What is your evidence?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 29, 2021 5:22 am

“The 1°C per doubling is not “my number” but an empirical value based on measured data”

Do you have a link for that? I’m real curious about this “measured data”.

Laws of Nature
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 29, 2021 2:10 pm

A good starting point might this be:
https://scienceofdoom.com/2010/02/19/co2-an-insignificant-trace-gas-part-seven-the-boring-numbers/

“We get Tnew = 289.1K or a 1.1°C increase.”
(Please note that the HITRAN spectra changes since that web caluclation in 2008 to include cross correlations, to these numbers are about 1% too low.)

Mark Whitney
July 28, 2021 4:47 am

I met him as well here in Salt Lake City. He is a very calm and personable man with a reasoned presentation. No wonder he has the arrogant mob of doomsayers gibbering in frustration.

Rudi
July 28, 2021 5:18 am

China´s per capita CO2 emission is smaller than that of Germany, even than that of Norway.

Rudi
Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 5:27 am

And one problem is the virus of oikophobia.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 5:51 am

I don’t think it matters what the per capita emissions are when the CO2 molecules are heating the world like an oven (good thing that’s not happening). It’s China’s total that matters. Besides, most of the Chinese live miserable peasant lives so the party members can enjoy a high standard of living.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
July 29, 2021 4:48 am

Have you ever been to China?
I have been to almost every major city in China.

I can assure the miserable peasant lives are in much greater abundance in places like Germany.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 6:44 am

And that statement takes the award for “The Lamest Defence of Hypocrisy EVAH!”

Yooper
Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 7:16 am

Yeah, but, China has more capitas than Germany and Norway combined….

Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 8:16 am

A good reason to believe it will rapidly increase as that huge population becomes wealthier.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 8:58 am

Per capita comparisons have their value as a measure of efficiency or effectiveness. However, sometimes it is more appropriate to look at the total emissions. Because of the large number of people in China (and potential for increasing the per capita emissions), the total forcing has to be considered.

If, 500 years ago, a Native American in Yosemite Valley were to have urinated on the base of a tree, it would have provided essential nitrogen and phosphorus. If, today, the million-plus tourists in Yosemite NP were to urinate on the same tree, the salts would kill it. Numbers are important, and sometimes the appropriate number is a total.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
July 28, 2021 10:43 am

Even if the “per capita” urine was less! LOL!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Rudi
July 28, 2021 10:39 am

What’s your point?!

  1. Emissions don’t matter, because (a) emissions don’t control atmospheric CO2 levels and (b) atmospheric CO2 levels don’t control the climate;
  2. IF emissions mattered, it wouldn’t be “per capita” emissions that mattered, it would be emissions in the aggregate;
  3. China isn’t done raising their emissions yet.
Sara
July 28, 2021 5:22 am

Cooling for the next 20-30 years? Okay, that means stock the pantry, cupboards and maybe buy another freezer, and hope the cost of natural gas for heating and cooking does not go up too much. Being on monthly “budget” billing (same fee each month, all year)

Stock up on sidewalk salt, move the pots off the front steps, and get a new suet cage for the downy woodpeckers. And hope that those gorgeous red-bellied woodpeckers show up at my feeding station.

Bring it! All it might do around here is give us more rain in the spring through fall seasons and then maybe extra snow, which will make the snowmobilers and trail skiers happy.

Sara
Reply to  Sara
July 28, 2021 6:00 am

Also, I’d like to point out the obvious to Lloydo and griffy-poo and other such Lost Souls: there is NO static climate on this planet, NEVER HAS BEEN, NEVER WILL BE. It changes constantly from warm to cool to warm to cool, and so on ad nauseum, and will continue to change for the next 5.25 billion years, or whenever the Sun swells up and becomes a red giant, swallows the solar system out to the orbit of Mars, and some day (like Betelgeuse), explodes. Now what are you guys gonna do about that????

Oh, wait – how do I know the climate changes constantly? Oh, gee, that’s so simple: I LOOK UP THE GEOLOGIC RECORDS, the stuff that shows snow piling up and turning into glaciers which scar the landscape when they move; stuff that shows continental drift such as Siberia’s VERY ancient land mass that was once a single unit but instead is slowly – VERY slowly – working toward splitting further, and also I look at real volcanoes — LIVE volcanoes that sit on rift zones, e.g., the Danakil Depression where lives the volcano Erta Ale in Africa, and the current baby wonder burper Geldingadalir, which sits directly on the mid-Atlantic rift and is still burping up a strong, viscous lava flow. That one isn’t going to end soon, either. There are also those really, really incredible hexagonal formations like the Giant’s Causeway on Ireland’s coast, and the Devil’s Tower in Wyoming (really, an old lava plug with the volcano completely eroded around it). The evidence is all over the planet, if you guys, you Lost Souls, could bother to look.

Climate, for you poor Lost Souls, is the Long Term and nothing changes quickly. Weather, on the other hand, is the Short Term, and changes all the time. So if we have 20 to 30 years of colder WEATHER ahead of us, what’s your problem, guys?

If it weren’t for WARM WEATHER, you’d likely be starving to death, because food crops don’t like cold weather, and greenhouses really don’t have the capacity to feed a city of 1.65 million people, no matter what the ecohippies think. Fruit trees like apples, apricots and peaches, and nut trees like pecans and walnuts, don’t grow indoors. Canned and packaged foods run out quickly in bad weather. Or have you forgotten those panic runs on every place selling groceries last winter, from Costco and Walmart to your local corner store? Did you forget that so soon? Short term memory loss is not a good sign for anyone, especially you guys.

Enjoy your warm weather, but find it in your Lost Souls to buy thermal underthings and a really, really warm jacket, hat, scarves and waterproof gloves and boots, because there is nothing worse than waiting in the bitter Chicago winter cold at the bus stop in an inadequate (but fashionable) coat that doesn’t cover anything but your briefcase, and the bus is always late. And if you think public transportation isn’t affected by bad weather, you aren’t living on this planet.

Have a nice day.

Reply to  Sara
July 28, 2021 7:16 am

Agree! Love it…and you did that without baloney data and crummy models. Now, if we could only get those morning hosts on The Weather Channel to stop worrying us about about desert droughts! (This, from a friend of IGY1957-58 and undersea sound arrays!)

Sara
Reply to  Walter keane
July 28, 2021 7:49 am

Desert droughts????? (Falls off chair, giggling, scares cat out of a perfectly good nap.)

OH, Great Holey-Moley Beetlejuice, where DO those people come up with that stuff?

I want to take it further and try to point out the obvious without charts and graphs and stuff. Workin’ on it, but my photos are sometimes better than charts & graphs and other such things.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Walter keane
July 29, 2021 5:30 am

“Now, if we could only get those morning hosts on The Weather Channel to stop worrying us about about desert droughts!”

Instead of a heatwave in Arizona and surrounding areas, it is now raining in those areas, and the Weather Channel hosts don’t report the rain as good news, they focus on the thunderstorms producing lightning that starts wildfires, and on flashfloods. There’s always a crisis somewhere.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 29, 2021 7:06 am

Danger Weather! == hype for ratings.

Stu
Reply to  Sara
July 28, 2021 8:21 am

Given the numerous heat vents in our oceans, how could one possibly attribute a minute change in ocean temperature to CO2, or as the primary driver of changes in ocean heat? This inquiry is being made by a layman.

Sara
Reply to  Stu
July 28, 2021 9:02 am

Good question, and why aren’t they including those vents called black smokers, which literally bring the water temperature up substantially enough for fish and shrimp and other critters to hang out there and find food? Those places teem with life of all kinds, but are ignored by popular media…. or maybe they are simply uninformed, or something.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sara
Reply to  Sara
July 28, 2021 8:28 am

Cold weather is usually bearable but a combination of cold and windy conditions can be nearly unbearable. Hot weather is easily defended against but high heat with high humidity makes things difficult.

Last edited 1 month ago by Rick
AlexBerlin
Reply to  Rick
July 28, 2021 10:26 am

Then why do so many more people die from being exposed to cold each winter, compared to those being exposed to heat in summer. The body will adapt to heat rather well if given time (anyone from “temperate” climate who has visited the tropics knows that: It takes several weeks before you can hope functioning as well as the locals!), but will not adapt to cold except by technical means (heating, clothing). Air-conditioning is mostly a luxury to make life more pleasant, except in desert situations with ambient temperature exceeding body temperature for substantial amounts of time. Heating OTOH is a necessity for us to survive. Warmer average temperatures will reduce the energy spent on either – less heating because of fewer dangerously cold days, but also less A/C as, like people in the tropics, we won’t feel the need for it as often as we do now once our body functions adapt (which they cannot with the current brief “hot spells” punctuated by lower temps).

Sara
Reply to  AlexBerlin
July 28, 2021 3:01 pm

Heat will exhaust you through dehydration (sweat), but it can be buffered if you keep yourself hydrated with water and proper clothing. Also, you can put a bottle of frozen water (ice in a bottle, yes) right over your heart. It will chill your blood as it’s pumped out to the rest of your systems. I tried that at the Renaissance Faire. Worked like a charm.

Cold, on the other hand, will freeze exposed skin, especially when you lack clothing that insulates you from the cold, and cold will make your internal temperature drop below a “safe” level. The object in extreme cold is to keep moving and/or find shelter to start a fire or heat source going. You can also become dehydrated in severe cold, as well as end up with damage to your lungs. Also, if you are stuck somehow in severe cold and have nothing to eat, no calories of any kind, you will use up whatever physical calories you actually have (body fat) and that will also dehydrate you.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sara
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Rick
July 28, 2021 10:55 am

The difference being that high heat/humidity are uncomfortable, but a bit of common sense and it’s not dangerous – hydrate and moderate activity levels, and the human body will tolerate heat quite well.

Cold, on the other hand, is life threatening – absent shelter AND a source of heat, cold kills.

pigs_in_space