The Real Climate Crisis Is Not Global Warming, It Is Cooling, And It May Have Already Started

By Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 2019

Introduction – Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming – A Failed Hypothesis

The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (“CAGW”, aka “Global Warming”, “Climate Change”, “Climate Crisis”, “Climate Emergency”) scare is a failed hypothesis and the greatest scientific fraud in history. Global warming alarmism has been promoted by political extremists and believed in by their gullible acolytes for decades, even though there is no credible evidence that catastrophic global warming exists in reality, and ample evidence that the CAGW hypothesis has been falsified.

The failed CAGW hypothesis assumes that increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel combustion drives dangerous runaway global warming. The alleged evidence for this fraud is climate computer models that greatly over-predict current observed warming, typically by 300 to 500%. These climate models deliberately employ excessively high assumed values of climate sensitivity to CO2, and are designed to create false alarm.

Global warming has slowed since the mid-1990’s, so the climate alarmists alleged that increased atmospheric CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels will cause wilder, more chaotic weather. There is ample evidence that this allegation is also false. Weather has actually become less chaotic.

The Mann hockey stick (MBH98 etc.), the Climategate emails, historical temperature data revisions and the thuggish tactics of the climate extremists provide ample evidence of fraud.

Credible Evidence That CO2-Driven Global Warming/Climate Change Alarmism Is A False Crisis

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been much higher in geologic time, and runaway global warming has never occurred in the billions of years of Earth history. Global temperatures have been much warmer and also much colder over geologic time. Earth is now in a glacial period, when mile-thick ice sheets cover much of the planet for about 100,000 years, interrupted by interglacials that last about 10,000 years. Earth is now in a warm interglacial, but the last glaciation ended only about 10,000 years ago, so Earth is due for another glaciation.

Temperatures were much higher during the Medieval Warm Period circa 900-1300 AD, and then humanity experienced the Little Ice Age circa 1300-1850 which caused enormous suffering and the deaths of millions.

The USA has some of the best surface temperature data in the world. The hottest USA surface temperature records occurred in the 1930’s, before fossil fuel combustion accelerated circa 1940.

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Fossil fuel combustion accelerated strongly at the start of World War II, and global temperatures COOLED significantly from 1940 to 1977. That one observation is sufficient to disprove the CAGW hypothesis – global temperatures do NOT rise catastrophically due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Even if it is assumed that ALL the observed global warming is ascribed to increasing atmospheric CO2, the following two studies calculated that the MAXIMUM climate sensitivity to a hypothetical doubling of atmospheric CO2 is only about 1 degree C, which is too low to cause dangerous global warming.

Christy and McNider (2017) analysed UAH Lower Troposphere data since 1979.

Lewis and Curry (2018) analysed HadCRUT4v5 Surface Temperature data since 1850.

That 1C/doubling is not an average, it is a MAXIMUM climate sensitivity, since some or most of the observed warming could be due to natural causes. Repeating, climate computer models used by the IPCC and other global warming alarmists employ climate sensitivity values 3-to-5-times higher than 1C/doubling, in order to create false fears of dangerous global warming.

It is highly probable, based on the evidence, that solar activity, not atmospheric CO2, is the primary driver of Earth’s temperature. In astrophysicist Willie Soon’s recent video, he shows the Sun-Climate relationship and provides his conclusions. There is strong correlation between the Daily High Temperatures and the Solar Total Irradiance (54:51 of the video):

… in the USA (55:02),

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Canada (55:16),

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and Mexico (55:20).

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Solar Total Irradiance is now close to 1360 W/m2, similar to the lows of very cold periods circa 1700 and 1800. Atmospheric temperatures should be cooling in the near future – maybe they already are.

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http://woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/offset:-1360/scale:1 Note: Offset = -1360 means 0 = 1360.

We do know that the Sun is at the end Solar Cycle 24 (SC24), the weakest since the Dalton Minimum (circa 1800+), and SC25 is also expected to be weak. We also know that both the Dalton Minimum and the Maunder Minimum (~1650 to ~1700) were very cold periods that caused great human suffering.

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http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction-1.png

Global temperature is certainly NOT primarily driven by increasing atmospheric CO2, because CO2 changes LAG global temperature changes in time, both in the ice core proxy record and also in the modern data record. The Vostok ice core record shows a lag of CO2 after temperature of ~~800 years.

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In January 2008, Allan MacRae made the following major observations in this paper.
Reference: “Carbon Dioxide Is Not The Primary Cause Of Global Warming”, January 2008
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CO2vsTMacRae.pdf

a. The velocity of changes of atmospheric CO2 [dCO2/dt] varies ~contemporaneously with changes in global temperature.
b. Therefore the integral of dCO2/dt, changes in atmospheric CO2, lag changes in global atmospheric temperature by ~9 months.

The very close relationship of dCO2/dt (red) vs global temperature (blue) is clearly apparent. Major volcanoes (some VEI5 and most VEI6 events) disrupt the relationship.

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Integrating the dCO2/dt data gives changes in CO2, which lag changes in temperature by ~9 months.

The above figures employ Mauna Loa (mlo) CO2 data. Similar results were observed using global CO2 data, as in MacRae 2008. The impact of major volcanoes is apparent.

The 12-month delta in CO2 is used to allow for the “seasonal sawtooth” in the Keeling Curve.

The ~9-month lag of atmospheric CO2 changes (red) after temperature changes (blue) is apparent.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1982.0/to:2003.5/mean:12/derivative/integral/detrend:30/scale:0.3/plot/uah6/from:1982.0/to:2003.5/mean:12/offset:0.14/plot/uah6/from:1982.0/to:2003.5/mean:12/offset:0.14

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In January 2013, a similar observation was made by Humlum, Stordahl and Solheim – that atmospheric CO2 changes lag global sea surface and air temperature changes by 9-12 months.
Reference: “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658

a. Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.
b. Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.
c. Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.

“The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature”, January 2013

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Our Predictive Track Record Is Excellent; The IPCC and Acolytes Have Been Consistently Wrong.

The ability to predict is probably the best objective measure of scientific competence. The IPCC and its global warming alarmists have consistently failed – every one of their scary global warming/climate change predictions has failed to happen.

In 2002 co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae wrote:

“Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”

“The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”

Both these above statements are demonstrably correct to date. Despite accelerating combustion of fossil fuels, especially since 1940, and increases in in atmospheric CO2 measured since 1958, the world has experienced only hugely beneficial increases in crop yields and mild, beneficial global warming.

Despite the decades-long campaign to eliminate them, fossil fuels have retained their 85% share of global primary energy, and the rest is mostly nuclear and hydro. Despite tens of trillions of dollars in squandered subsidies, green energy still comprises only 4% of global primary energy. Due to intermittency, grid-connected green energy schemes do not even significantly reduce CO2 emissions, since they require almost 100% spinning-reserve, typically fossil fueled, to fill-in when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine.

CO2 Concentration is Far Too Low; Earth Is Colder-Than-Optimum for Humanity and the Environment

The radical greens could not be more wrong. Contrary to green propaganda, atmospheric CO2 is far too low, and Earth is colder-than-optimum for humanity and the environment.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is not too high – it is far too low for optimal plant and crop growth, and far too low for the continued survival of terrestrial life on Earth. CO2 reduction and sequestration schemes are not just wrong; they are costly, destructive and imbecilic.

Cold weather kills about 20 times as many people as warm and hot weather. Excess Winter Deaths in the USA average about 100,000 per year – equivalent to two 9-11’s per week for 17 weeks EVERY YEAR.

Excess Winter Deaths are calculated as the difference between deaths in the four winter months (December to March in the Northern Hemisphere) less half the deaths in the eight non-winter months.

Excess Winter Deaths occur worldwide, even in warm countries like Thailand and Brazil. An approximate-low estimate of Excess Winter Deaths is 2 million souls per year worldwide.

More than 50,000 Excess Winter Deaths occurred in England and Wales during the winter of 2017-18 – an Excess Winter Death rate about THREE TIMES the per-capita average in the USA and Canada. Proportionally, that is about 35,000 more deaths in the UK than the average rates of the USA and Canada. Excessively high energy costs in the UK due to false global warming/anti-fracking hysteria are a major part of the cause of these Excess Winter Deaths – driven by global warming alarmists and their corrupted minions in governments and institutions.

Predictions of Imminent Global Cooling, Starting Anytime Soon

Allan MacRae also published on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson, the prediction that global cooling, which happened from ~1940 to 1977, would recommence by 2020-2030:

“Over the past one thousand years, global temperatures exhibited strong correlation with variations in the sun’s activity. This warming and cooling was certainly not caused by manmade variations in atmospheric CO2, because fossil fuel use was insignificant until the 20th century.

Temperatures in the 20th century also correlate poorly with atmospheric CO2 levels, which increased throughout the century. However, much of the observed warming in the 20th century occurred before 1940, there was cooling from 1940 to 1977 and more warming after 1977. Since 80 per cent of manmade CO2 was produced after 1940, why did much of the warming occur before that time? Also, why did the cooling occur between 1940 and 1977 while CO2 levels were increasing? Again, these warming and cooling trends correlate well with variations in solar activity.

Only since 1977 does warming correlate with increased CO2, but solar activity also increased during this period. This warming has only been measured at the earth’s surface, and satellites have measured little or no warming at altitudes of 1.5 to eight kilometres. This pattern is inconsistent with CO2 being the primary driver for warming. If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.

For the past ~five years, MacRae has written that global cooling would start closer to 2020. This global cooling will start sporadically, at different locations in the world. Similar predictions of global cooling are included in the Appendix.

It is notable that planting of crops has occurred one month later-than-usual in North-central growing areas of North America in both 2018 and 2019. In 2019, there were many more record U.S. all-time daily low temperatures than record highs for the last 30 days, 365 days and year-to-date. These events may just be weather, not climate, or they could be the early indicators of global cooling.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes a weekly crop report:

Crop Progress NASS Weekly, Mondays

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

The October 21, 2019 report is here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/qr46rf238/fx71b191j/prog4319.pdf

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The North-central 2019 harvest was hit hard by wet, cold weather. Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo explains:

The growing season in North America has been especially challenging.

Crop Challenges 2019

· Greatly delayed or aborted planting

° 19 million acres did not get planted.

° Late cold, snow, rain and flooded fields.

· Shallow roots caused by excess rain

· Soil Compaction

· Mid to late summer dryness and heat to the South and East.

· North-central growing areas saw excessive rainfall AND not enough sun or Growing Degree Days

· Early snows in Northwest growing areas

· Half the corn and soybean crop was not mature enough to harvest until mid-October

· The soybeans and corn still in the field are delaying the planting of winter wheat

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The cold weather that developed early in the year persisted through the summer into the fall in the North-central region, which helped move warmth into the Southeast. Heavy rains fell along the contrast zone between the extremes.

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With the cold, the Growing Degree Days were well below normal in North-central growing areas, and above in the Southeast.

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See the heavy rains in the central Corn Belt early in the growing season, shifting Northwest late.

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Corn and soybeans progress on average trailed well behind the normal.

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Corn maturity as of October 20th 2019 was most behind in the Dakotas Southeast to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Note the much better conditions in the South.

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Newman’s analysis of 1980 showed the ideal growing areas of the Corn Belt would shift North with warming and South with cooling by approximately 144 kilometers per 1°C. The current corn growing area is shaded.

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Newman, J. E. (1980). Climate change impacts on the growing season of the
North American Corn Belt. Biometeorology, 7 (2), 128-142.

The 2019 soybean harvest also trailed the 5-year average by 18% though the leaf drop was just 3% behind average.

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Even where the first freezing temperatures came on time, the delays meant losses of corn not reaching black layer maturity and soybeans that had not dropped their leaves.

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Very early snows arrived with the early cold in the North-central region affecting corn, soybeans, spring wheat and small grains, there and in parts of the Canadian Prairies.

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The yield estimate on October 10th marks the first season in 6 years below the trend line.

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Production estimates are down slightly but are expected to decline further after the effects of the early cold and snows are considered.

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The soybean yield also is below trend line for the first year in 6 years. Projected soybean production is down more than corn production.

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More areas will see below freezing temperatures and even snow before November.

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Summary and Conclusions

It is notable that crop planting has occurred one month later-than-usual in the North-central growing areas of North America in both 2018 and 2019. While warm summer weather saved the 2018 crop, in 2019 the Northern corn and soybean harvests were devastated by a cold summer and early cold weather. In 2019, there were many more record U.S. all-time daily low temperatures than record highs. These events may just be weather, not climate, or they could be the early indicators of global cooling.

Appendix – Other Predictions of Global Cooling, In Chronological Order Since 2003:

In 2003, Dr. Theodor Landscheidt wrote a paper predicting serious global cooling:

“Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”

In 2005, Piers Corbyn predicted cooling by 2040.
On the 2nd February 2005, he gave this presentation to the Institute of Physics Energy Management Group. It contained the following statement:
“In the next 5 or 10 years warming is likely to be maintained as a transpolar shift occurs. This will be followed by the magnetic pole moving away from the geographic pole, a decrease in solar activity, a Southward shift in the Gulf Stream and considerable world cooling by 2040 AD.”
In 2006, NASA predicted that
“Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries”.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov and colleagues at the Russian Academy of Science stated in 2006:

“Global cooling could develop on Earth in 50 years and have serious consequences before it is replaced by a period of warming in the early 22nd century…

On the basis of our [solar emission] research, we developed a scenario of a global cooling of the Earth’s climate by the middle of this century and the beginning of a regular 200-year-long cycle of the climate’s global warming at the start of the 22nd century.”
Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2015 and reach its peak in 2055-2060.
He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today because “climate cooling is connected with changing temperatures, especially for Northern countries.

Nigel Weiss, University of Cambridge, stated in 2006:

“If you look back into the sun’s past, you find that we live in a period of abnormally high solar activity. Periods of high solar activity do not last long, perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash. It’s a boom-bust system, and I would expect a crash soon.”

Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, stated in 2006:

“Sunspot numbers are well on the way down in the next decade. Sunspot numbers will be extremely small, and when the sun crashes, it crashes hard. The upcoming sunspot crash could cause the Earth to cool.”

In 2007, Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian wrote in “Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years”:
“… Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO2 concentration remains constant at present, the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.”

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346 thoughts on “The Real Climate Crisis Is Not Global Warming, It Is Cooling, And It May Have Already Started

    • Chaamful nonsense!

      See the figure just after this sentence:
      “The very close relationship of dCO2/dt (red) vs global temperature (blue) is clearly apparent. Major volcanoes (some VEI5 and most VEI6 events) disrupt the relationship.
      ,,, Integrating the dCO2/dt data gives changes in CO2, which lag changes in temperature by ~9 months.”

      This is certainly not spurious correlation.

        • You guys really sometimes make me wonder.

          There is some yearly variation in temperature (the SH is different from the NH and an oblique orbit, etc) and CO2 (more vegetation of the NH spring than the SH spring). They’ll have to correlate. This proves very little on anything, though.

          • The correlation does not prove causation. In fact when dealing with a correlation between two variables, the correlation does not indicate which variable is dependent, and which is independent.

          • Karl –

            “In fact when dealing with a correlation between two variables, the correlation does not indicate which variable is dependent, and which is independent.”

            It would be absurd to posit that the rate of change of CO2 is driving temperatures. If that were the case, CO2 could be pumped to arbitrarily high levels, and temperatures would fall back to the initial condition as soon as the pumping stopped, regardless of final concentration.

            The rate of change relationship clearly establishes that it is the temperature driving CO2, and not the reverse.

          • The “relationship” you speak of is a correlation, and nothing more. Correlation does not prove causation which you think is the case. CO2 in fact could be driving temperature as the AGW hypothesis states, with radiative physics the underlying explanation.

          • You state: ” it is the temperature driving CO2″ which of course the chart does not show. Your claim might hold water if you said ” it is the temperature anomaly driving the rate of change of CO2.” But even that is not shown by the chart because it’s comparing a monthly anomaly with a time-averaged quantity. Apples and oranges.

          • “Karl October 30, 2019 at 1:05 pm

            The “relationship” you speak of is a correlation, and nothing more. Correlation does not prove causation which you think is the case. CO2 in fact could be driving temperature as the AGW hypothesis states, with radiative physics the underlying explanation.”
            __________________________________

            Karl jette des bougies fumigènes:

            Karl throws smoke candles.

            When CO2 LAGS temperatures it’s not done with “correlation” –

            it’s about causation.

            And because CO2 LAGS the causation can only be “temperatures”.

            The bougies fumigènes won’t help Karl: 1st he’s to answere CAUSATION!

        • I am not sure that TSI is the real correlation, ie not on it’s own.
          There are too many other things going on like UV changes, Solar Wind and Cosmic Radiation that are all intertwined with TSI.
          I think Solar Output would be more correct.

        • That is not “proof”, it is a visual demonstration, though I think the claim is basically sound.
          There is a short term correlation of dCO2 and SST:

          https://climategrog.wordpress.com/dco2-hadsst-ersst/

          There is also an underlying , long term rise is sCO2 which may also be related to the long term rise in SST but with a different scaling. It remains to be demonstrated that these two arbitrary scalings are physically meaningful and provide a complete explanation of the dCO2 SST relationship.

          None of this fiddling with graphs and arbitrary scaling is “proof” of anything.

          • Greg wrote:
            “None of this fiddling with graphs and arbitrary scaling is “proof” of anything.”

            Semantic nonsense Greg. As you may know, we actually cannot “prove” a hypothesis, we can only falsify it (Popper), but the subject relationship “dCO2/dt vs temperature” is strong supporting evidence in favour of my hypo, and all the evidence to date refutes the alarmist CAGW hypo.

        • That graph is not “proof.”
          ..
          First, dCO2/dt removes the trend.
          ..
          Second the relationship is NOT between dCO2/dt and temperature, it is between dCO2/dt and an anomaly

          • Tell all of us with inquiring minds how you “scale” a time series variable with a monthly value with another time series variable that is a sliding 12-month average?

          • More nonsense from Karl, who wrote:
            “That graph does not show which variable is dependent and which one is independent.

            Temperature changes lead, CO2 change lag- the future cannot cause the past.

          • You posted: “CO2, which lag changes in temperature by ~9 months.”
            ..
            All that means is that CO2 LEADS by 3 months on an annual basis.
            ..
            Again, the chart does not show which variable is independent.

          • “All that means is that CO2 LEADS by 3 months on an annual basis.”

            No. It is not symmetric year to year. If you lag it 9 months, you’ll get good correlation with high SNR frequency components. If you lead it by 3 months, not so good.

            It’s not really a time lag, but a phase lag, and the phase lag is 90 degrees. That is why the CO2 rate of change matches the temperature anomaly. For a linear, minimum phase system, a constant lag from input to output of 90 deg implies the input is the derivative of the output.

            The time lag of 9 months is simply the lag of observed frequency components. Apparently, Allan is focusing on strong components with a frequency of about 1/3 years^-1. That means a time lag of phase in radians/radial frequency = (pi/2)/(2*pi/3) = 3/4 years = 9 months. If you look at other frequency components, you will get different time lags, but the phase lag is always 90 deg.

          • So, any/all of your talk about “phase relationships” is invalid when aligning a monthly time series with another time series that has a 12-month running average, and all trend information removed.

          • Bartemis, when you compare apples to oranges, at least your are comparing two fruits. With Mr. Macrae’s chart he’s comparing apples to cinder blocks.

        • Allan,
          In discussing warming and temperature most people on both sides of the argument never mention pressure. Anyone with any knowledge of physics knows that pressure and temperature have a proportional relationship as shown with the gas laws. There is no such thing as average temperature anymore than any other sort of weather and just to look at pressure systems at this link earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-243.87,8.27,333
          should convince anyone that it is wrong to consider any silly notion of average weather. With 55 years in aviation and a long airline career I know there is no average weather including temperature. Here is another little gem on the BOM in Australia joannenova.com.au/2019/10/the-australian-bureau-of-met-hides-50-years-of-very-hot-days/

      • 95% OF THE ARTICLE IS EXCELLENT — better than most articles here … but I have a big issue with climate predictions, in general.

        They are so often wrong — about 100% of the time — that they are a waste of time to write about, and to read.

        We have over 100 years of adding man made CO2 to the atmosphere, decent near-global weather satellite temperature data since 1979, and rough temperature data from 1940 to 1979 (I don’t trust surface data before 1940).

        My only complaint about the climate in Michigan, where I live, is: WHERE IS THE GLOBAL WARMING we’ve been promised ?

        2019 has been our coldest year since I moved here in 1977, and I want to file a complaint with someone!

        DO COOLING TRENDS MEAN ANYTHING ?
        There was a mild cooling trend from 1940 to 1975 ( which may be “adjusted” away before the ink on this comment dries, by those smarmy government bureaucrats! ).

        So, what did that 35-year slight cooling trend mean for the long term global average temperature trend ?

        Apparently, not much — it was followed by a faster warming rate after 1940, than before 1940.
        .
        .
        I’ve been reading climate science articles and studies, as a hobby, since 1997.

        The most important thing I learned was that climate change physics is not thoroughly understood, so it is impossible to build a real climate model, or to make real climate predictions.

        The so-called “models” are just the opinions of the people who programmed them, falsified over many decades, by the inaccurate predictions.

        WITHOUT a thorough understanding of climate change physics, climate predictions are just guesses.

        And they are meaningless even if the guess turns out to be right … because a correct prediction made without sufficient knowledge , is just a lucky guess.

        By the way:
        I favor more CO2 in the atmosphere, to ‘green’ our planet, if added from burning fossil fuels USING modern pollution controls.

        The “coming climate crisis” is the biggest science fraud in history.

        There could be a climate crisis in the future, such as a much colder climate after Holocene inter-glacial ends … but currently, no human has the knowledge and ability to predict the future climate.

        No human even has the ability to predict whether the climate will be warmer, or cooler, in 100 years.

        Uunfortuneately, that lack of climate change physics knowledge does not stop all the wild guess predictions, and climate change scaremongering.

        So here we are, living in the best climate for humans and animals since the late 1600s, but it’s very difficult to enjoy our wonderful climate, because so many smarmy leftists are constantly bellowing about a “coming climate crisis”, that they do not have the ability to predict !

        • You and I are very similar. I too have been reading climate articles and studies for many years as a hobby. I have come to the same conclusion as you. Prediction is impossible with our current data sets and understanding of atmospheric physics.

    • The cross-correlation diagram that Prof Murry Salby exhibits in his presentation shows :
      – a positive correlation between T and CO2 with a lag of some 10 months (right part of the diagram),
      – conversely the left part of the diagram shows no correlation between CO2 and T (or a weak negative correlation with a lag of some 16 months).

      https://youtu.be/2ROw_cDKwc0?t=561

      Therefore, according to this data analysis, the “Atmospheric CO2 concentration increase causes global T increase in the lower troposphere” hypothesis is inconsistent with actual physical Earth’s data analysis and any theory trying to explain this assumption can’t be anything but wrong of incomplete.

      Furthermore, if any assumption could be done based on this data analysis, is that CO2 seems to act – if anything – as a negative feedback with respect to global temperature variations.

      Many actual scientists found comparable results (CO2 has a cooling effect on the atmosphere) decades ago. See for example :
      – Manabe & Möller 1961 : On the radiative equilibrium and heat balance of the atmosphere. (See paragraph “Heat budget” and discussion of the results).
      https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281961%29089%3C0503%3AOTREAH%3E2.0.CO%3B2
      – Kondratyev – 1969 : radiation in the atmosphere.

      Plass’, Goody, Möller, Manabe, etc. all agreed at the time that CO2 has a cooling effect except in the tropical tropopause aera, where some disagreed (Goody, Plass’, see the paper above) :
      – we now know that this “hot spot”, that the IPCC claimed decades ago that it would be an evidence of the CO2 warming effect, actually, does not exists.

    • chaamjal et al.,

      CO2 changes do lag temperature.
      This has been known since 1990 when Kuo et al. published their seminal analysis; ref.
      Kuo C, Lindberg C & Thomson DJ, “Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature”, Nature, volume 343, pages709–714, 22 February 1990

      Their paper can be obtained from https://www.nature.com/articles/343709a0.
      Its Abstract says,
      “The hypothesis that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is related to observable changes in the climate is tested using modern methods of time-series analysis. The results confirm that average global temperature is increasing, and that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.”

      Subsequently, several other studies have confirmed the work of Kuo et al, and determined that the length of the lag varies with distance from the equator.

      Humlum et al, published a nonsense paper attempting to refute this body of observational evidence, but other than several refutations
      ( e.g. see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000908 )
      it has been generally ignored.

      Richard

      • Everybody,

        Aaaargh! I made a typo,. and thus wrote the opposite of what I intended.

        Chaamjal had claimed that because Humlum et al. (2013) was wrong there was no evidence of the lag of CO2 changes behind Temperature Changes.

        My reply explained there is a body of evidence accrued over decades in support of the finding of Kuo et al. (1990) that CO2 changes lag behind Temperature Changes. And I wrote,
        “Humlum et al, published a nonsense paper attempting to refute this body of observational evidence, but other than several refutations
        ( e.g. see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000908 )
        it has been generally ignored.”

        I intended to write,
        “Humlum et al, published a nonsense paper attempting to support this body of observational evidence, but other than several refutations
        ( e.g. see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000908 )
        it has been generally ignored.

        Sorry!

        Richard

      • Richard S Courtney – October 28, 2019 at 2:14 am

        chaamjal et al.,
        CO2 changes do lag temperature.

        I can agree with the above, ….. but not this, to wit:

        Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.”

        Especially when MacRae and D’Aleo claim it is a 9 month lag, to wit:

        Excerpted comments: By Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 2019

        The ~9-month lag of atmospheric CO2 changes (red) after temperature changes (blue) is apparent.

        The very close relationship of dCO2/dt (red) vs global temperature (blue) is clearly apparent. (ref: UAH LT Global Temperature Anomaly graph)

        The 12-month delta in CO2 is used to allow for the “seasonal sawtooth” in the Keeling Curve.

        The above is highly interesting because of the claims, to wit:

        A. how can one claim a very close relationship between CO2 and global near-surface air temperatures when said temperatures are little more than guesstimates.

        B. when the 12 month delta portrayed by the KC graph is nothing more than a plotted visual “seasonal sawtooth” representation of the temperature producing bi-yearly or 6 month cycling of atmospheric CO2 ppm.

        C. how is it possible for CO2 to lag temperature by 6 months, …… or by 9-months ….. when the KC graph proves that CO2 lags seasonal temperature changes by a couple or 3 weeks to a month or so.

        And likewise whenever volcanic particulate causes near-surface temperature decreases within a couple or 3 weeks to a month or so after an eruption.

        • Samuel C Cogar,

          You comment on my report of the seminal work of Kuo et al. and reply,
          “I can agree with the above, ….. but not this, to wit:
          Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.””
          Especially when MacRae and D’Aleo claim it is a 9 month lag, to wit:”

          It seems that you missed my writing immediately after quoting the Abstract of Kuo et al. (1990),
          “Subsequently, several other studies have confirmed the work of Kuo et al, and determined that the length of the lag varies with distance from the equator.”

          Richard

          • @ Richard S Courtney

            It seems that you missed my writing immediately after quoting the Abstract of Kuo et al. (1990),

            Nope, don’t be talking silly, ……. I didn’t miss it. It was inconsequential to the 1st claim.

            Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.”
            verses:
            , and determined that the length of the lag varies with distance from the equator.

            Richard, but don’t get confused, …. I agree with said “lag from equator” because it CONFIRMS my claim that the ocean water temperature drives the atmospheric CO2 ppm increases/decreases. RAH RAH RAH

            But Richard, iffen you are an avid believer of the CAGW junk science claim that the “green growing/dying biomass” of the NH drives the atmospheric CO2 ppm increases/decreases …… then you have a real serious problem with your stated “distance from the equator” claim.

            Don’tja think?????

          • “Samuel C Cogar October 29, 2019 at 5:05 am

            @ Richard S Courtney“
            ____________________________

            Samuel C, all Richard said was

            – 1st CO2 lags temperatures at the Equator

            – 2nd temperature rise distant to Equator lags temperature rise at the Equator

            which gives

            – 3rd CO2 rise lags temperature distant to Equator lags CO2 rise at the Equator – lagging temperature rise at the Equator:

            Everywhere: CO2 rise lags temperatures rising.

      • Obviously you did not read or under stand Humlum et al’s paper.

        It is very difficult, possibly impossible for cult of CAGW scientists to do real science.

        The entire CAGW team have ignored the recent observation that C14 (C14 from the atomic bomb test) has made it way down to the deepest ocean with no delay, disproving the CAGW necessary Bern model of CO2 sources and sinks and resident times.

        The carbon 14 is carried down to the deep ocean by particular organic carbon which absolutely disproves the CAGW so called Bern model of CO2 sources and sinks.

        Odd also that there is a paper from 1990 that estimates 130% of the atmosphere pool can sink to the bottom of the ocean in less than a year (Toggweiler)

        CAGW requires that humans cause the majority of the CO2 rise which required the cult of CAGW to create the non-physical so-called Bern model (named after a city) of CO2 sources and sinks which assumes that ocean circulation (with hundreds of years delay) is the only method of deep sequestration of CO2 in the ocean.

        Based on a half dozen independent analytical techniques and different measurements, humans are responsible for less than 15% of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2.

        Analysis of yearly changes in the CO2 shows that the majority of the rise in the atmospheric CO2 is caused the increase in temperature.

        This is an interesting summary of the Monkey business concerning the creation of the Bern model and past cherry picking of CO2 data to create the CAGW paradigm.

        Carbon cycle modelling and the residence time of natural and anthropogenic atmospheric CO2: on the construction of the “Greenhouse Effect Global Warming” dogma.

        https://www.co2web.info/ESEF3VO2.pdf

        The Bern model assumes that ocean circulation (with hundreds of years delay) is the only method for deep sequestration of CO2 in the ocean.

        The alleged long lifetime of 500 years for carbon diffusing to the deep ocean is of no relevance to the debate on the fate of anthropogenic CO2 and the “Greenhouse Effect”, because POC (particular organic carbon; carbon pool of about 1000 giga-tonnes; some 130% of the atmospheric carbon pool) can sink to the bottom of the ocean in less than a year (Toggweiler, 1990).

        https://www.livescience.com/65466-bomb-carbon-deepest-ocean-trenches.html

        Bomb C14 Found in Ocean Deepest Trenches

        ‘Bomb Carbon’ from Cold War Nuclear Tests Found in the Ocean’s Deepest Trenches

        Bottom feeders
        Organic matter in the amphipods’ guts held carbon-14, but the carbon-14 levels in the amphipods’ bodies were much higher. Over time, a diet rich in carbon-14 likely flooded the amphipods’ tissues with bomb carbon, the scientists concluded.

        Ocean circulation alone would take centuries to carry bomb carbon to the deep sea. But thanks to the ocean food chain, bomb carbon arrived at the seafloor far sooner than expected, lead study author Ning Wang, a geochemist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Guangzhou, said in a statement.

        • William Astley,

          I read it and I understood it.

          I am willing to debate that paper with you but I refuse to engage in slanging match with you because it is not worth the bother.

          Richard

          • Richard,
            You need more facts and an alternative hypothesis. The cult of CAGW are 100% incorrect about everything.

            Cooling is going stop all this CAGW nonsense. I will start a thread when there is cooling.

            Atmospheric CO2 levels in the last 20 years, correlate with planetary temperature changes and planetary temperature changes correlate with mid-ocean seismic activity which in turn correlates with mid-ocean heat release.

            https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/have-global-temperatures-reached-a-tipping-point-2573-458X-1000149.pdf

            Namely, increased seismic activity in the HGFA (i.e., the mid-ocean’s spreading zones) serves as a proxy indicator of higher geothermal flux in these regions. The HGFA include the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the East Pacific Rise, the West Chile Rise, the Ridges of the Indian Ocean, and the Ridges of the Antarctic/Southern Ocean. This additional mid-ocean heating causes an acceleration of oceanic overturning and thermobaric convection, resulting in higher ocean temperatures and greater heat transport into the Arctic [2,3]. This manifests itself as an anomaly known as the “Arctic Amplification,” where the Arctic warms to a much greater degree than the rest of the globe (Table 1) [4,5].

            It is fact that there has been a 300% increase in the frequency of earthquakes (no increase in the magnitude, just an increase in the number of earthquakes which correlates linearly with amount of energy that is required to cause the earthquakes and move the ocean plates) that occur at the edges of mid-ocean ridges, at near the ridge where ocean plates are pushed apart, all over the planet.

            What is interesting is geology does not have an explanation as to what generates the force to move the tectonic plates, before the observation that the frequency of mid-ocean earth quakes increased by 300% average for 20 years.

            The lack of a forcing mechanism explains why the theory of plate tectonics took so long to be accepted.

            http://www.davidpratt.info/tecto.htm

  1. I am very thankful that my little niche in the american midwest has produced a good crop of corn despite the conditions, thanks to a replant in May.
    The potential crops lost to flooding here at the junction of the Mississippi, Illinois and Missouri rivers are considerable, just as they are all the way up the Missouri.
    I think there should be federalization of flood plains and the removal of levees protecting croplands, with fair prices paid to the owners and first dibs on leasing the land at a low price during low water. The breaching of levees protecting river towns would be greatly reduced.

    • In my corner of the world we had a late killing frost, followed by one of the driest coolest summers in a long time, followed by heavy rains and an early spring blizzard. We have had snow on the ground for two weeks now. Winter is firmly here. Overall it has been a bad year but nothing is record breaking. Every nasty event has happened before in the last six decades.

  2. “climate computer models used by the IPCC and other global warming alarmists employ climate sensitivity values 3-to-5-times higher than 1C/doubling, in order to create false fears of dangerous global warming”

    The connection from fossil fuel emissions to co2 driven warming cannot be made without the use of spurious statistics. The issue is not what the value of the climate sensitivity is but whether the climate sensitivity is a relevant issue. Pls see

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/08/climate-change-theory-vs-data/

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/25/a-test-for-ecs-climate-sensitivity-in-observational-data/

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/21/boondoggle/

  3. Interesting article. I didn’t know the United States constituted the world, as this author seems to believe. Wonderful to have those Soybean numbers, and the author seems to have other agricultural skills; cherry picking.

    • Tony wrote this nonsense:
      “I didn’t know the United States constituted the world, as this author seems to believe.”

      How about if you state what you believe, and I will state what I believe. That is much more rational.

      I do not believe that the USA is the whole world, perhaps because I’ve seen the whole world, or most of it (6 of the 7 continents) and it is definitely bigger than the USA. 🙂

    • “I didn’t know the United States constituted the world”

      Well, as regards the U.S. surface temperature chart, it *does* “constitute” the world, as all the unmodified regional surface temperature charts from around the world resemble the temperature profile of the U.S. surface temperature chart, i.e, the 1930’s was as warm or warmer than temperatures today.

      • That’s unusual. My post above was edited by someone (maybe). I’ve never had a post edited before in all the years I’ve been here. The edit left out another paragraph I had written and it left out the four links I provided to surface temperature charts from around the world.

        Any explanation for that Mods? I assume it was some kind of mistake because there was nothing in the edited part that was offensive and I’ve posted four links at a time in the past without any problem. So, like I said: Unusual.

      • Nevermind Mods (others). I found the post I was referring to farther down the thread. It was not edited, I just happened to write very similar things in two posts and got them confused.

        Sorry about that.

    • Prior to about 1940, the US record was practically the world’s records…with over 80% of the whole world’s records. The entire continent of Antarctica had one thermometer until just before 1930. And even to this very day ARE NOT SUITABLE for the determination of Global Average Temperatures (properly cited automated modern stations would provide 24 hour integrated temperatures providing for a better assessment of temperatures all day compared to the current “High/Low” reporting).

      • “Prior to about 1940, the US record was practically the world’s records…with over 80% of the whole world’s records.”

        That’s true. One thing that is not often mentioned about the records from other parts of the world during this time period is that although they are few and far between, they all resemble the U.S. surface temperature profile where the 1930’s shows to be as warm as today and dispels the myth that today is the hottest period in history. It was just as hot in the 1930’s, and we have charts to prove it..

        And where did our Alarmist Climate Gurus get the data for their “Global Temperature Average”, why from these very records. They then took these records, bastardized them, and turned them into a global surface temperature average and a Hockey Stick chart that doesn’t resemble reality.

        Here’s the real global surface temperature profile, the U.S. surface temperature chart. All the old, unmodified charts from around the world resemble this one. They do not resembel a “hotter and hotter” alarmist Hockey Stick chart.

        US chart:

        https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/Figure-11.png

    • If a few trees rings can be a proxy for the world, how can an entire continent not be?
      IOW…can anyone explain how an entire mid-latitude continent can have a different temperature trend from the planet it is sitting on, over a multidecade period spanning over 100 years?
      A few years here and there is one thing, but when the entire record is looked at in unadjusted form, it is clear that the pattern of warming and cooling is highly correlated.
      How could it be otherwise, being that the jet stream carries air masses around the planet in a matter of a week or two, and the primary cells (Hadley, Ferrell, Polar) likewise distribute heat around the planet on other time scales?
      Pre-global-warming-alarmism-era graphs of global, hemispheric, and US temps closely match the patterns seen in most individual locations from all over the Earth.
      And they are concordant with historical accounts of ice changes, patterns of heat waves, etc.
      All that really varies are the exact years of the inflection points, and the magnitude of the variations, with polar locations tending to show larger trends, and equatorial locations showing smaller ones.
      Continental interiors likewise tend to show exaggerated variations as compared to locations closer to the moderating effect of oceans and seas.
      This concordance disappears in adjusted data sets.

    • Emailed earlier today to my friend Madhav Khandekar:

      Hi Madhav,

      It is difficult to argue with UAH satellite data, which shows some warming, although in a step-down pattern, but as we said in our article:

      “For the past ~five years, MacRae has written that global cooling would start closer to 2020. This global cooling will start sporadically, at different locations in the world.”

      I think Earth is shedding heat now in this step-up/step-down pattern – I think we are in a transition zone now – we’ll see.

      Best, Allan

      • So you admit the claim “it is cooling” is unsubstantiated at this point. But like other modellers you expect it is just about to happen. Excuse me of being equally skeptical of both claims.

        These climate models deliberately employ excessively high assumed values of climate sensitivity to CO2, and are designed to create false alarm.

        Once again, climate models to not employ “assumed values of climate sensitivity co CO2”. It is an emergent property. Please get back facts right, if you want your claims to be taken at all seriously.

        What the do “assume” is faked parameters for other forcings such as the scaling of AOD to radiative forcing which ARE and input to the models. Around 2000 AD, Hansen’s group dropped basic physics and observational estimates of this scaling and instead tweaked it, and other parameters, with the declared object of “reconciling” model output with the climate record.

        In effect this change means they are increasing the climate sensitivity to volcanic forcing. The means they will need to tweak other factors to produce a model more sensitive to an opposing or warming forcing. We know which that has to be.

        So modellers are not “assuming” high sensitivity to CO2 , they are creating conditions where that will emerge from the model by rigging other parameters.

        • The repeated use of atmospheric temperatures (without any regard to enthalpy) as a guide to the heat content of the Earth’s climate systems which includes the oceans is one of the problems. Heat in the atmosphere is on its way out of the Earth system to space. Warm winds blowing over the ocean will cause more evaporative heat loss for the oceans than cold winds, so the Earth climate system will be cooled by a warm atmosphere not warmed, and that should include the albedo effect of increased cloud. This is the activity of the largest of Earth’s cooling systems, the hydrologic cycle.
          As the top 6 meters or so of the oceans have a higher heat content than the entire atmosphere, more emphasis should be put on the ocean heat content, and not just ocean surface temperatures.

        • Greg wrote: “So modellers are not “assuming” high sensitivity to CO2 , they are creating conditions where that will emerge from the model by rigging other parameters.”

          Mere semantics Greg. The climate computer models are nonsense – they “employ” (is that better than “assume”?) values of climate sensitivity that are much higher than the MAXIMUM probable climate sensitivity, which is about 1C/doubling of CO2.

          Repeating from the paper:
          “The failed CAGW hypothesis assumes that increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel combustion drives dangerous runaway global warming. The alleged evidence for this fraud is climate computer models that greatly over-predict current observed warming, typically by 300 to 500%. These climate models deliberately employ excessively high assumed values of climate sensitivity to CO2, and are designed to create false alarm.”

    • So you are claiming that a signal trend of .03C is detectable?
      Looks like noise to me.

      Try not to confuse reported instrument resolution with accuracy.
      This seems to be a common thread in current climate science.

      From Dr. Roy Spencer
      “Because of various radiometer-related and antenna-related factors, the absolute accuracy of the calibrated Earth-viewing temperatures are probably not much better than 1 deg. C. ”

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/01/how-the-uah-global-temperatures-are-produced/

    • We need a really cold winter to shut up these urverdammnis politicans.

      A as in One cold winter? It’s going to take way more than that.

      • You got it. If the MSM doesn’t even report colder temperatures, such as —4F at West Yellowstone this morning, or any number of indicators of a cooling climate, why would we believe anything will change. The stand up and salute narrative of warming will be the default story for decades.

        If it gets really bad, like a mile of glacial material burying Al Gore’s house, then maybe the public will catch on.

        In the meantime, I’m not holding my breath.

      • Agreed.
        It will take a multiyear cooling trend that shows global temps falling below the long term averages on a sustained basis to change anyone’s mind, if then.
        Short term changes are not the issue, and so will not resolve anything.

      • We had a really cold winter in the eastern part of US/Canada in 2015 – extremely cold and lasted forever. There may have been another one since but I remember that one as being out of the ordinary in both cold and duration of cold temps.

        MSM and green blob still claimed that these kinds of winters are the results of global warming wreaking havoc on the planet. So, don’t hold your breath. They have lied for years about this hoax, so why stop now…

    • Hi Walter.

      In 2019 the Canadian prairies had the coldest February in 70 years. It was brutal.

      We hardly had any summer in Calgary – I think there were a few days in August that felt a bit like summer.

      Best, Allan

      • Here on the prairies, we almost had a frost in August, and did have one in September. I actually put the winter tires on the car in September, for the first time ever.

        But, hey, it was the warmest year ever or something.

        And the cold is due to Global Warming, according to the alarmists.

        • “But, hey, it was the warmest year ever or something.”

          Months. NASA Climate and NOAA are reduced to declaring months as “the hottest month evah!” since they haven’t been able to declare a “hottest year evah!” since 2016. “Global” temperatures are down about 0.4C since 2016 according to the UAH satellite chart..

    • In the twin city metro area of MN, the last 2 winters have been awful. Each producing a depressing whopper April snowstorm.

      I don’t want a third 😡

      • Derg, don’t believe “tomwys October 28, 2019 at 8:47 pm
        Hate to break it to ya, but prepare for it, and a fourth, and a fifth – ad nauseum!!!”s kidding you;

        We’re already through with La Niña phase, gathering warmth during El Niños.

        Nonetheless this one could get a hard winter too: due to atmospheric humidity, precipitation.

    • It is -9 degrees C here in mid-Saskatchewan…I woke this morning at 7:00 am to an 18-inch snowdrift across my driveway. The wind chill has bitterly driven the temperature down. This all follows an ice rain about three days ago that froze on the roads — and then turned to snow. It has been snowing since then, needless to say, the roads are treacherous and I am sure this is the low point of a failed solar cycle.
      It is going to get very cold.

        • Just received this email:

          Global warming causes early snow storms out west:
          “Here in Saskatchewan, we didn’t even get the crop off before the steaming hot snow covered it.”

          My comment:
          I am convinced that the global warming extremists fully understand that they are deceiving the public for their own political and financial objectives – nobody could be this stupid for this long.

    • Mr. Sobchak:

      We in the US are living in an unusually cold year — from January 2019 through August 2019 was a record cold January through August (based on daily maximum temperatures from the USHCN weather station network, since 1895 — not every state set a record, but about 2/3 of the surface area of the 48 continuous states did).

      Did anyone but me know this ?

      Did anyone else care ?

      Don’t jump to a conclusion that “a really cold winter” will make a difference, because the government bureaucrat scientists who predict a lot of global warming … also OWN the historical temperature data, and they are NOT afraid to “adjust” it … again and again !

      It might feel like a cold winter on the land, but remember that the oceans cover 71% of our planet, and they can be made “warmer” by a bureaucrat’s “stroke of a pen”, just like they did in 2015, to “officially” end “the pause”.

      This is politics, and junk science, not real science !

    • I think a really cold winter on the US east coast would be helpful. This is where all the media folks live. Having them deal with snow, sleet and ice for a couple of months would get their attention.

      I would love to see an omega pattern set up over the US. That would make both coasts colder than average. Sorry to wish this on those of you who haven’t bought into the hype, but hopefully this would do a lot of damage to the propagandists.

    • It’s amazing you say that.
      REGARDLESS of what the weather is like in the next several years, it will be blamed on climate change caused by human activity and CO2 (regardless if CO2 levels increase, decrease or stay the same).
      Too hot/cold, wet/dry, snowy/no snow. stormy/no storms, windy/no wind, hail/no hail…………….. it makes no difference.
      It AGW religious zealots (i.e., left wing fanatics) will blame it on human caused climate change because the AGW movement is a POLITICAL movement.

  4. We’ve passed the peak of the modern warm period.

    I’ve analysed the southern ocean surface temperatures (SST) using an algorithm optimised for extracting cyclic components longer than the data period. It was designed to decompose vocal tract resonances for my PhD in automated speech recognition (100-200ms speech segments between glottal excitations) and applied as-is to the SST data.

    It extracted 800y, 200y, 60y, 30y, and 11y cycles in order of decreasing strength leaving a 0.03C mean residual. The SST can be viewed as a smoothed basal temperature of the Earth. The circa-800y cycle matches the thermohaline ocean currents.

    http://brindabella.id.au/ftp/SST+C14.png

    • … cyclic components longer than the data period.

      Suppose that you have a triangle wave. Your sampling window is only wide enough to contain less than half a cycle. The signal in the window is just a monotonously increasing time series. It doesn’t have any inflections.

      What will your software do with that.

      • Wouldn’t like it at all 🙂
        In the domain it was built for the signal was constrained to a few resonances, coloured noise, or bursts which were handled separately. SST is more cleanly cyclic than speech so it worked.

  5. The use of language that appeals to emotions does not belong to science. Please, do you not words like fraud. Let the evidence guide the reader.

    • Fraud is what is occurring, so how can anyone be guided to the correct conclusion without mentioning it?

    • OK. If you don’t like calling it a fraud, how about calling it what it is, which is a criminal conspiracy? The IPCC/UNFCCC, the political left and the MSM are all colluding towards perpetrating a financial crime against the developed world that makes Bernie Madoff look like a petty thief. While the IPCC/UNFCCC are fully conscious of this, I’m not sure that the political left and its lackey MSM understand the extent to which they are being manipulated towards the repressive agenda of the IPCC/UNFCCC.

      Sugar coating the malfeasance only reinforces the alarmists who clearly have no qualms about using inflammatory rhetoric against skeptics. It’s important to counter their rhetoric on the same terms and not allow them the exclusive use of manipulating emotions to gain support for their position.

      Sure, inflammatory rhetoric doesn’t belong in science, but that’s all the alarmists have and taking the high road on this isn’t working.

  6. Not only it is the greatest scientific fraud but is also the greatest economic fraud in history. The lost economic costs are incalculable. See Bastiat.

  7. We are getting full press climate alarmism. They have switched the limit down from 2°C to 1.5°C. They are desperate. They know, or at least strongly suspect, that the jig is up.

    The solution to CO2 is nuclear power.

    If Germany had spent those many billions on nuclear this past decade, instead of on solar and wind, it would have created enough low-carbon energy to replace all the fossil fuels and biomass used in its electricity sector and to replace all of the petroleum it uses for cars and light trucks, U.S. environmental expert Michael Shellenberger has said, citing a report from Environmental Progress. link

    I was very happy to hear a Canadian Conservative Party insider touting nuclear on the radio today.

    • CO2 doesn’t need a solution. Especially if the climate begins cooling we’re going to need all the plant fertilizer we can get for crop growth.

    • commieBob

      ….the jig is up

      Precisely what I said when the lowered the limit to 1.5C. And haven’t they reduced that from the original number of 3C?

      The best thing that can happen is that the world blasts through 1.5C and nothing happens. What do the idiots say then?

      Tragically, however, sceptics are destined to wish for the very thing the world doesn’t want to make our point – global cooling.

      How much money and resources have been wasted chasing the wraith of global warming, to the detriment of everyone’s children and grandchildren?

      As realisation gradually dawns on the UK’s government at least, there will be a mad scramble for fracking, ignoring the wishes of the anti fracking brigade; there will be a knee jerk demand for nuclear, probably SMR’s which will be rushed online with risks not fully understood, and there will be accidents, because that’s what stupid governments do.

      They did precisely the same thing with wind and solar, to everyone’s detriment. No cautious long term approach with a gradual winding down of fossil or nuclear facilities…….Just shut them all!

      Even as a non scientist I recognise this as folly on a monumental level.

      Perhaps the abandoned wind turbines littering our landscapes and oceans will serve as a reminder for generations to come.

      • “Tragically, however, sceptics are destined to wish for the very thing the world doesn’t want to make our point – global cooling.”

        It’s not so much a wish for global cooling, but an understanding that periodic cooling and warming is what the climate does and next in the progression is cooling. The alarmists don’t understand this, for if they did and to be consistent with their position that CO2 emissions are warming the world, they would want us to emit as much as possible before the next, inevitable, ice age arrives, not that it would actually have any tangible effect. Kilometer thick ice bearing down on NYC is a lot more inconvenient then the worst case warming claims by the IPCC. Where are the Canadians on this? How about the Swedes, Norwegians and the other countries that were completely buried during the last ice age? Talk about potential climate refugees.

    • If we do hit a very fast and (literally) deathly cooling trend. And we need to go full bore, extracting coal as fast as possible and using the COAL AS A TRANSITION FUEL until nuclear, through necessity, is fully developed and utilized throughout any northern hemisphere country that wants to stay viable. Then I would want some sort of prescriptive mine labor to include Al Gore and Mike Mann.

      (In turn, if the temp increases five degrees Celsius I will offer my free labor to wave a fan for those guys on hot days.)

  8. A couple of Russian scientists back between 2005 to 2010, maybe a bit before, IIRC made a prediction of a cooling period similar to that of the 1970’s to start to make it’s presence felt around 2030-ish. I think they have it right as there does seem to be evidence in the past of a bit of a warm up just before a drop in to cold. Given we are still in an ice age, and we have been through well document cold spells in the past, this seems reasonable.

  9. Yabut, you’re forgetting that the heat is going into the oceans now, through an unknown, magical process. CarbonHeat™ just “decides” where to go, and when. But wait, there’s more. It also has an uncanny and spooky way of hiding from us, so right when we least expect it, BOO! There it is, in your face. Be afraid, be very, very afraid.

      • Looks to me like heat is coming out of the oceans right now. Not such a bad thing, really, if you want to keep the Earth, in general, warmer. If we’re lucky, things will stay warmer. Hooray for warmth!

        However –

        We know dick about what the climate is going to do as that’s the kind of thing that is measured in, multiple, human lifespans. Speculate all you want about what will happen, temp wise, in the next 5, 10, 20 or even 100 years. Go for it! Maybe it will cool off for a bit and then warm up and then get colder still after that.

        Maybe.

        Opinions vary.

        What seems a certainty, no maybe about it, is that it WILL get cold and ice sheets will come to scrape away much of human civilization as we know it. Might be a few hundred or a few thousand years but the ice is coming eventually.

        Oh, and the ones who are pushing the CAGW nonsense will give it up when they’re freezing and starving in the dark and sizing up their neighbors for a long pig BBQ.

        Cheers

        Max

  10. The seasonal response of biomass to temperature can explain most of the shorter term lags seen in the Moana Loa data since without burning fossil fuels, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are roughly proportional to the amount of planet wide plant life. Two things contribute to this. First is that to support a larger biomass. more atmospheric CO2 is required and second, when there is more biomass alive, there’s more biomass decaying back into CO2 and CH4.

    Similarly, the birth and death of forests takes centuries and can explain the multi-century lags seen in the ice cores. Note that the 800 year Vostok lag is too large and is an artifact of low CO2 sampling resolution in that core. Newer cores, for example DomeC, exhibit a lag closer to 2-3 centuries which is more compatible with the ebb and flow of forests as melting ice frees up land for new forests, while advancing ice slowly kills them off.

  11. Yep I’m now in the ”cooling camp”
    Maybe soon, maybe a couple of decades but co2 dogma is dying a slow agonizing death.
    Actually, I would prefer it stay warm!

  12. Emailed earlier today to my friend Madhav Khandekar:

    Hi Madhav,

    It is difficult to argue with UAH satellite data, which shows some warming, although in a step-down pattern, but as we said in our article:

    “For the past ~five years, MacRae has written that global cooling would start closer to 2020. This global cooling will start sporadically, at different locations in the world.”

    I think Earth is shedding heat now in this step-up/step-down pattern – I think we are in a transition zone now – we’ll see.

    Best, Allan

    • Surely that’s a non-falsifiable statement.

      Please give me some falsifiable predictions.

      I am a global warming sceptic, but also a global cooling sceptic.

          • The promise or intimation of free beer tomorrow doesn’t hurt me.

            Taking my money & liberty today and telling me that in return I’ll get free beer sometime in the future is a pretty shitty thing to do. (And since they are planning on giving out only O’douls it is worse than shitty, it is a criminal lie)

          • Loydo, Macrae has been making the same prediction “cooling will start soon” now for 20 years. He’s been wrong for 20 years.

      • “Please give me some falsifiable predictions.”

        That’s oxymoronic language. Predictions can only be falsified (or verified) at the temporal intersection of reality and prediction.

  13. The idea that we humans are somehow idealised for a cool world, based on the climate over the past 50,000 years (or something) needs to the called out for the nonsense it is.
    If you want to understand the conditions we have evolved for look at our evolved physiology: no protective fur or blubber (land whales excepted) and one of the most effective cooling systems of any creature; our whole bodies are a cooling evaporation plate. We can run down antelopes in a hot climate our refrigeration system is that good.
    There’s no doubt we evolved for a warm/hot climate with reasonable available water. The fact we survived the last glaciation is down to intelligence, inventiveness, adaptive behaviour and in-group cooperation. The Neanderthals, arguably better suited to the cold, failed to make it though some of their DNA may survive among the climate apocolysts.

    • Humans are tropical animals. Without artificial aids (fire, clothing, buildings) they cannot survive a winter outside the tropics.

    • I read somewhere a couple of years ago that humans would die of hypothermia in most regions of the world without shelter, clothes and a source of heat. The excess winter deaths data for the UK and Europe confirms that. The deaths in winter predominantly affect people who would expect to live several more years whereas heatwave deaths affect people with underlying health issues.

      Which makes a move to renewable and intermittent energy supplies a real threat to life and well being. Extinction Rebellion is well named, with extinction of the human race the goal.

      • Ben Vorlich

        According to the Office for National Statistics, Excess winter deaths in the UK during 2017/2018 were 50,100. The lowest on record was in 2013/14 at 17,310.

        However, the terrifying prospect of people dying during heat waves is quite staggering:

        “According to the NDMA (India’s National Disaster Management Authority) heat waves in India have accounted for over 22,000 deaths since 1992. In 2015, 2,040 Indians died in shocking heatwaves. Recent years have seen declines, to 1,111 in 2016 and 222 in 2017.”

        Yes, that’s two hundred and twenty two!

        That’s strange, we are told a warming planet (which, the IPCC assures us, will occur predominantly in the Northern & Southern hemispheres, in winter, and at night) is a bad planet. Yet in 2017 the UK suffered 50,000 fatalities from cold (nor was it a particularly cold winter) and India, a country with immense poverty, ill equipped to deal with weather extremes, suffers 222 deaths from heat.

        In 27 years India’s total fatalities from heat is only ~5,000 more than the lowest recorded UK deaths from cold in a single year.

        Based on 2005’s PPPs International Comparison Program, in 2011, the World Bank estimated that 23.6% of Indian population, or about 276 million people, lived below $1.25 per day on purchasing power parity.” (Wikipedia. I don’t like using it but sometimes it’s useful to get a feel for numbers).

        Even were that 276 million figure halved between 2011 and 2019, the number of Indians living in poverty is still still more than twice the population of the entire UK, yet only 222 people died from heat.

        You are of course welcome to verify these figures.

        https://www.ons.gov.uk
        https://ndma.gov.in/en/

        • Good post, thank you HotScot.

          To clarify, the 50,100 Excess Winter Deaths that occurred in December 2017 through March 2018 was only for England and Wales – and did not include Scotland and Northern Ireland. That is about 35,000 more Excess Winter Deaths than the average per capita EWD rate for the USA or Canada, and it is a national tragedy and a national disgrace.

          Excessively high energy costs in the UK are probably the primary cause of these EWD’s – remember this the next time you see demonstrators protesting the fracking of gassy shales, or protesting fossil fuels, or blocking traffic and blocking trains to “fight global warming”.

          These anti-fossil fuel activists are by far the greatest killers in the UK, but since they kill off the elderly and the poor they get a free pass.

          I’m with the good people of Canning Town.
          https://youtu.be/9P1UXYS6Bmg

          Best personal regards, Allan

          • Allan

            Thanks for pointing out the missing Scotland and NI figures.

            It really is a national disgrace, but the British government is so incompetent it can’t deal with the simple matter of a referendum and the resulting Brexit never mind care for the elderly and vulnerable.

        • “HotScot October 28, 2019 at 3:35 am

          However, the terrifying prospect of people dying during heat waves is quite staggering:

          “According to the NDMA (India’s National Disaster Management Authority) heat waves in India have accounted for over 22,000 deaths since 1992. In 2015, 2,040 Indians died in shocking heatwaves. Recent years have seen declines, to 1,111 in 2016 and 222 in 2017.”

          Many many more people dies in poverty. Many many more people die as a result of not wanting to live in that poverty and commit suicide.

          • Patrick MJD

            There is statistical analysis for those dying of suicide, but not their reasons given for committing the act. So quite how you can claim that people are killing themselves because it’s too hot I really don’t understand.

            I have my doubts if there is a category of ‘Died from poverty’ as poverty isn’t a fatal condition. The causes may be malnutrition or disease, but unlikely to be ‘poverty’. So, again, interested where you get these claims from.

  14. Waiting for Mosh-pup to make a one word drive-by….

    Hello Mosh-pup… calling Mosh-pup.
    Care to guess what the next 10-20 years of GMST looks like?
    NOAA can mal-adjust GHCN only so much…

    (cue: natural internal system variation takes over)

  15. I’m signing off for the evening now.

    PUULEASE read the paper and check the embedded references before commenting.

    That will save all of us considerable time.

    • The left needs to implement Green New Deal policies quickly in order to take credit for global cooling, which is inevitable.

      Global cooling is not the real problem. It is the leftist political reaction to it that will be the disaster.

      • Exactly right. That must be why they have given the world a 12-year deadline for action to prevent a “meltdown.” The inner circle knows that after 12 years, it will be obvious (without a green deal as a smokescreen) that global warming is only the result of natural variability, and it is over for now.

        • Leftist politicians and “scientists” have continually given 5, 10, and 12 year deadlines for climate Armageddon. When they pass with no result, they set another. This is identical to doomsday cults, who set another deadline for the world’s end when the last one passes, pretending the last prediction never existed.

  16. Recent weather in Washington State is cooperating with sporadic global cooling by suddenly giving a cold winter in February, 2019; a cooler than normal summer with much fewer triple digit temperatures than in the past; and now a cold fall with snow at the end of September.

  17. “The very close relationship of dCO2/dt (red) vs global temperature (blue) is clearly apparent. “
    Yup, still there is more CO2 going into the oceans than coming out of it.

    Get your balance sheet right.

  18. Dear Mr. George, regarding human evolution:

    Hominids first appeared at the beginning of the Pleistocene ~2 mya — coincidently with the coolest global conditions in ~240 my and after ~50 my of global temperature decline since the Eocene optimum.

    Yes, we arose in the tropics and are tropical animals, but the key factor in our evolution was the domestication of fire. We thrived as a species precisely because we could make fire — for cooking, warmth, light, protection from predators, ease in catching prey, and manipulation of the environment to enhance survival. Our bodies are adapted to artificial energy creation and use. Our intelligence and in-group cooperation revolve around the hearth. Making, feeding, and using fire made us human. We are fire creatures, the only fire creatures in the history of life.

    The authors make the persuasive case that the Earth is cooling and perhaps sliding into another glacial stadial. The pressing question is: what can we as a species do, if anything, to prevent or delay global cooling? If the answer is nothing, then how might we adapt without undo suffering and precipitous human population decline?

  19. This is the second paper I’ve written with veteran meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo. Our first paper was published in 2015 on Excess Winter Mortality.
    https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf

    Joe is one of the best meteorologists on the planet – this story illustrates how very competent he and the team at Weatherbell are, based on their strong predictive track record.

    The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast a warm winter for 2014-15, and Joe called me in October 2014 to say he was concerned that the NWS forecast was seriously incorrect, and that the next winter would be particularly cold and snowy, especially in the populous Northeast. This was the second consecutive year that the NWS has made a very poor (excessively warm) Winter forecast.

    Joe and I had been working together on a paper on Excess Winter Mortality, and we agreed that this incorrect “warm winter” NWS forecast was dangerous, especially if the country and its people were unprepared.

    I proposed an approach, and we sent a presentation for my friend at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the EIA’s request, Joe prepared his own monthly Winter Forecast by region for the EIA, who re-ran their winter energy demand calculations. Using Joe’s forecast, the EIA projected 11% more winter energy required for the USA than the “warm” NWS forecast had projected.

    After that brutally cold and snowy winter, the actual energy used was 10% more than the EIA had projected using the warm NWS forecast, and just 1% less than Joe’s forecast projection. That is a huge amount of energy for the entire USA. I’m not sure if we saved any lives, but we definitely did a good deed.

    Regards, Allan MacRae
    Calgary

      • Karl Marxist wrote: “Publishing a “paper” on blogs is not how science is done”.

        It is now Karl. The leading journals, including Science and Nature, have disgraced themselves, publishing reams of false alarmist propaganda supported by PAL review.

        Now we publish online, include all our data and live or die by true peer review.

        And potshots from the weeds by trolls like you count for nothing.

        • “It is now Karl”

          No Mr. MacRae, you are incorrect. Have you noticed how much effort folks such as Viscount Monckton and Pat Frank exert getting their work published in journals?

  20. Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, thank you for this update on the cooling hypotheses.

    Cooling, like the warming up til now, will likely be spatially heterogeneous, so more than “tales from the corn belt” will be required to convince anyone. That said, I do appreciate your work.

  21. Allan
    Thank you for an excellent posting.
    Fraud is both the correct term to use for so much of the calculatedly deceitful nonsense broadcast by, for example the BBC, and the behaviour of scientists onboard the fund seeking academic gravy train.
    It is important that in the future there is clear evidence that there were people who warned against the catastrophe the politico-alarmists are relentlessly and deliberately leading us into.
    Keep up the good work.

  22. The value of this article is diminished by the ranting about fraud. Please publish it somewhere else in an edited form that can be linked to.

    e.g – remove this:
    “The Mann hockey stick (MBH98 etc.), the Climategate emails, historical temperature data revisions and the thuggish tactics of the climate extremists provide ample evidence of fraud.”

    I think it is going to be a slow process to get enough scientists and teachers to move away from the Co2 theory. There’s been a generation or more had it drummed into them by TV, books, school lessons; and ironically by main stream media who love the drama of doom laden headlines. “World normal and likely to remain so” – does not sell papers.

    • David Tallboys

      Whilst you are right about the effects AGW indoctrination has had on our communities, the spectre of fraud and double dealing hangs like the sword of Damocles over the scientific community.

      The terms ‘fraud’ and ‘fake’ do indeed sell papers. All the MSM needs is a target and with the continuing replication crisis in science, it’s only a matter of time before the MSM turn on it for telling us all lies, not just in climate science.

      We are all well aware that in some time in the future the world will decline into another ice age. Nothing humankind can do will stop that. It might just be a mini ice age as we had before (hopefully) but if a cooling signal is identified over the next ten years or so, then watch the MSM turn on the likes of Mann and Gore, and all the other hysterical ‘scientists’ will go to ground.

      • I’d count myself in the Pleistocene Ige Age is still here group. We are in an interstadial and it is only a matter of time before the cold state returns. We should, in my opinion, be doing everything we can, beyond our 4% carbon dioxide breath, to raise the atmosphere’s levels to closer to 500 or 600 ppm, not that it’ll ‘warm’ the planet. 300 ppm is too close to general plant starvation levels (and remember oxygen poisoning of RUBISCO is a thing), for my tastes.

  23. Global warming has slowed since the mid-1990’s …

    Not sure what evidence there is to support that. Even taking the satellite UAH_TLT data set, which has by far the slowest warming rate of all the global temperature data sets, warming between Dec 1978 (start of data set) and Dec1995 (mid-1990s) was +0.08 C per decade. From Jan 1996 to the present the warming in UAH is +0.11 C per decade, so faster since the mid 1990s, not slower as claimed. The rate for the whole UAH_TLT series, Dec 1978 – Sept 2019, is faster still, at +0.13 C per decade.

    Taking the surface data sets and comparing the period since the mid 1990s with the same duration period up to the mid 1990s gives similar rates of warming; both up to and after the mid 1990s but also over the whole duration (all +0.16-0.18 C per decade, depending on which data set you use). These things are not difficult to check, e.g. (GISS here): http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1972/plot/gistemp/from:1972/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1972/to:1996/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1996/trend

    So where is the evidence supporting the claim that warming has slowed since the mid 1990s?

      • William Astley

        Here’s that very same UAH_LT data you linked to, only this time with the trends in it as discussed above (Dec 1979 – Dec 1995; Jan 1996 – present). The authors of this article are claiming that “Global warming has slowed since the mid 1990’s…”

        http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/to:1996/trend/plot/uah6/from:1996/trend

        The data set ‘you’ link to and proclaim to be “the truth” shows their claim to be false. The rate of warming in UAH_LT since the mid-1990’s is faster (+0.11 C/dec) than it was leading up to the mid-1990’s {+0.08 C/dec). Check the raw data on that site or at UAH if you don’t believe it.

        The evidence you posted in order to dismiss my point actually backs it up.

        • The data I linked to was UAH. The data you linked to was GISS.

          GISS has been systematically modified reducing past temperatures and increasing current temperatures to create a hockey stick for propaganda reasons.

          Compare the two graphs.

          The majority of the rise in atmospheric CO2 was caused by warming, not the CO2 rise.

          The tone of the discussion will change when there is real cooling.

          • I used the UAH data in my follow up post, not GISS. The same UAH data you used. Please see the link clearly showing that it is UAH data. UAH shows a faster rate of warming after the mid-1990’s than in the period leading up to it. The authors’ claim that global warming has slowed since the mid-1990’s is not supported by any data set and, in UAH at least, the opposite is true.

  24. The world is warming. That’s a fact that can’t be argued. Peak warming was reached in early 2016 as far as we can tell. The cooling of 2017 and 2018 has been partially reverted in 2019, but obviously it could continue in 2020 and following years.

    But that already happened around 1945. The world cooled for 30 years until 1976. Was the world cooling long-term? Not really, it was in the low part of a 65 year oscillation whose trend was still increasing, so we can say that the world has been warming for at least 200 years including that period of cooling.

    So even if we enter a 30-year period of cooling, that doesn’t mean that the planet is long-term cooling. We must wait at least a full period of 65 years to know if the long term trend is no longer upward. So by 2090 we might be able to say if the world has stopped warming. Of course that makes it personally irrelevant to nearly all of us.

    Cooling alarmism has even less grounds than warming alarmism, and has been consistently wrong in its past predictions. That won’t change even if we enter a 30-year cooling period. Alarmists are not that different even if what alarms them is. Eventually there will be a reason to fear climate change but that may still lie several thousand years in the future. No point in worrying now.

    • “The world is warming.” No, we can’t say that is a fact. All we can say is that we have been in a warming period since the LIA. That warming period may have already ended, but we won’t know for a while, perhaps even ten years or more. These things don’t stop on a dime, nor are they uniform. I don’t see anything alarmist in the post, simply the fact that cooling is more something to worry about than warming, if we need to worry about something. That isn’t being “alarmist”. And we can’t know how long a period of cooling, if it happens, will be. We can only hope it might be only 30 years. That would be easy. A walk in the park. Except, it would blow the whole CAGW carbonistas arguments out of the water.

  25. I have been working outside in the Uk for the last 45 years with an 8year break in the 80s whilst I was in the Royal Navy. In the 70s it was very cold with temperatures so low (for the UK anyhow) that the diesel was freezing in the fuel lines and week long spells of -10C were regular. In the 90s/00s it was considerably warmer, particularly in summer with droughts and hosepipe bans a regular feature The last 10 years has seen progressively colder and wetter summers with this year having at least 2 July days where the temperature hovered around the 10C mark and I needed the heater on in the cab of the excavator. Winter temperatures are still holding up but are definitely not as warm as 10years ago.
    Couple all this with the cyclical nature of the weather since WW2, one could definitely observe that the temperature topped out several years ago now. Perhaps as above this is all just weather but I notice that most of the RCP graph lines do not represent a cyclical nature, even if they are not completely straight lines.
    Using my own experience and it is my own opinion, the weather is definitely on a more cooling trend already and the bumper crop yields of around the millennium are no longer being repeated. It will be an interesting next 5 years – by then I would expect to be able to see who is right here…..for sure.

  26. Allan, I don’t see any references to increased humidity in cold weather. That is also relevant.

    It used to be that winter air was dry, with bouts of snow brought in from elsewhere and if you walked across a rug and touched a metal doorknob, you’d get zapped by static. I haven’t had that happen to me since the winter of 2000-2001. I haven’t had to run a vaporizer to increase indoor humidity to a “comfort” level in nearly 20 years now. It isn’t just indoor humidity, it is also outdoor humidity levels that count. Never used to have “thundersnow”, and now it’s a fairly common occurrence.

    I’m 8 miles south of the WI/IL state line. The weather forecast from NWS is for a snow and rain mix this week, several days in a row. (There goes Hallowe’en!) It may also mean a longer and wetter snow season in my area, and if it is going on here, it is also moving south into the metro Chicago area because of Lake Michigan’s higher levels. Lake Michigan has been consistently 11 inches higher than ever this year, and next year’s forecast for a rising lake level is another 20 inches. The local rivers have been higher than ever, and since they all head downstream to the Mississippi River, being up over their banks is adding a bodacious water volume to that waterway. These things need to be addressed. All the rivers around here are so full that some are over their banks. The local hiking trails and forest preserves are more wet than dry, and the trails are frequently mud if they aren’t paved for bikes.

    We had so much rain this past summer that my little lawn looked like green velvet and not once did I have to water my plants on the front steps. We also had late snows, up to three inches deep. The last one was on April 30 this year. I have photos of it.

    So why is this elevated humidity level not being addressed along with the other aspects of weather? Why the higher humidity? What’s going on there? I think that needs to be looked at, not just temperature swings.

  27. The failed CAGW hypothesis assumes that increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel combustion drives dangerous runaway global warming. The alleged evidence for this fraud is climate computer models”

    err.. nope.

    psst. also, usa aint the globe

  28. Toggweller et.al. has studies on glacial/interglacial changes, and on WHY CO2 lags temperature on long timescales. They figure that midlatitude westerlies control ocean circulation and CO2 feedback. When westerlies shift poleward, like the present, CO2 is flushed out of the ocean into the atmosphere. If that’s the case, increasing atmospheric CO2 could be mostly natural.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005PA001154

    “…..We hypothesize that these transitions occur in nature through a positive feedback that involves the midlatitude westerly winds, the mean temperature of the atmosphere, and the overturning of southern deep water. Cold glacial climates seem to have equatorward shifted westerlies, which allow more respired CO2 to accumulate in the deep ocean. Warm climates like the present have poleward shifted westerlies that flush respired CO2 out of the deep ocean.”

  29. Minus 8C today in Oulu, Finland, some early snow already. Tyre changes were need 3 weeks ago – earlier than normal. We have had cool summer again and all the signs are it will be another cold winter. Green party is becoming more and more popular here and more stringent energy policies being introduced all the time (carbon taxes and so forth). Seems that most people are happy to pay for the “green revolution”.

  30. Saturday it was 77, today (monday) thru most of this week in the low 30s. That is the only climate change i care about.

  31. Thank you for an excellent, concise review of the science and its implications. This should be required reading at all the Ivy League institutes of higher indoctrination.

    I’m glad I’m not a vegan homesteader here in central WI where my veggie garden was a miserable failure- worst in 50 yrs of doing this. Luckily, my nasty methane-producing cattle did just fine and I won’t be protein malnourished over this winter.

    One word of caveat about GW and the northward movement of optimum growing temp/precip conditions– it will take the soil a little more time to undergo ecological succession to keep up with the weather changes.

  32. How come El-Nino phases are completely left out?

    It seems that the atmosphere warms ONLY when we are in El-Nino phase, cools when we are in neutral or La-Nina phase.

    This gets overlooked over and over, why?

    Right now the Ocean waters has been in a long term COOLING phase, that will eventually peter out……..

    How come so many here forget Bob Tisdale’s presentations?

  33. Regarding “the following two studies calculated that the MAXIMUM climate sensitivity to a hypothetical doubling of atmospheric CO2 is only about 1 degree C”:

    I clicked the link for the Lewis and Curry 2018 study, and saw in its abstract:
    “ECS of 1.50 K (5%–95% range: 1.05–2.45 K)”
    “Using infilled, globally complete temperature data give slightly higher estimates: a median of 1.66 K for ECS (5%–95% range: 1.15–2.7 K)”
    “Allowing for possible time-varying climate feedbacks increases the median ECS estimate to 1.76 K (5%–95% range: 1.2–3.1 K), using infilled temperature data.”

  34. Global temperatures change inversely to changes in the solar wind strength at interdecadal scales. The 1970’s global cooling was stronger solar wind conditions driving colder ocean phases, and driving an increase in low cloud cover. Post 1995 global warming has been dominated by weaker solar wind conditions driving warm ocean phases, and reduced low cloud cover.
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/association-between-sunspot-cycles-amo-ulric-lyons/

    El Nino episodes drive major warm pulses to the AMO with an 8 month lag, that is a likely cause of the 9 month lag of CO2 with temperatures.

    • Ulric Lyons

      The 1970’s global cooling was stronger solar wind conditions driving colder ocean phases, and driving an increase in low cloud cover. Post 1995 global warming has been dominated by weaker solar wind conditions driving warm ocean phases, and reduced low cloud cover.

      Yet the authors of the above article claim that “Global warming has slowed since the mid 1990’s …”. According to UAH_LT it’s got faster, and according to the surface data sets it’s stayed fairly constant over the long term.

  35. Regarding “the following two studies calculated that the MAXIMUM climate sensitivity to a hypothetical doubling of atmospheric CO2 is only about 1 degree C”:

    I just clicked the link for Christy and McNider 2017, and found in it:

    “tropospheric transient climate response (ΔTLT at the time CO2 doubles) is +1.10 ± 0.26 K”

    This is transient climate response; equilibrium climate sensitivity is higher. Also, the 1.10 +/- .26 degree K per 2xCO2 was determined using warming in the UAH TLT dataset adjusted downward from .155 to .096 degree/decade because of volcanic effects in the earlier years of the tropospheric temperature dataset.

  36. Correction: in this thread (above) I used the word “undo” when I meant “undue”, as in undue suffering due to global cooling.

    Or more specifically, Northern Hemisphere cooling, which has been happening for ~6,000 years ever since the Holocene Climatic Optimum. The recent (post-LIA) warming has been slight relative to the longer trend, and it is ending. The worm is turning back towards cooling.

    The good news is that there is not going to be a Hotpocalypse. The IPCC, AOC, Al Gore, and all the alarmist modellers are wrong about that. The bad news is that even slight cooling, which is apparently inevitable, is going to be disastrous.

    Alarmism is not completely useless — if there is actually a disaster looming. Point of fact is that the Earth is already too cold and getting colder. Doing crazy stuff like carbon sequester, carbon taxation, atmospheric aerosols, banning fossil fuels, etc. is totally counter productive for what ails our Planet.

    We are the fire creatures. We were put here by Darwin (metaphorically speaking) to warm the place up. We need to get after that. We need at least to be open to suggestions.

    One idea, offered (above) by Allan MacRae, is albedo control of ice sheets. Not easy but possibly doable — however, will it work? Another is increase greenhouse gases. Careful here, though, because the most potent GHG is water vapor and clouds = albedo. Another is improve oceanic circulation, possibly by breaking off Antarctic ice shelves and towing them to Equatorial waters. Or mass dredging of the Bering Straight to get that heat exchanger working. Black roofs, not white ones.

    Whatever the solution set, we need to concentrate on that and not on cooling the Earth. She’s already cold enough and getting colder. Warmer Is Better. Fight the Ice.

    • “Mike Dubrasich October 28, 2019 at 6:45 am
      Correction

      One idea, offered (above) by Allan MacRae, is albedo control of ice sheets. Not easy but possibly doable — however, will it work? Another is increase greenhouse gases. Careful here, though, because the most potent GHG is water vapor and clouds = albedo. Another is improve oceanic circulation.”

      ___________________________________________

      OK, changing albedo of ice sheets, clouds are thermostats for the atmosphere …

      https://www.google.com/search?q=ice+sheets+albedo+change&oq=ice+sheets+albedo+change&aqs=chrome.

      In the end it’s null sum games,

      incoming energy – work done on Planet Earth ( thermodynamics, fluid mechanisms … ) equals outgoing energy.

      The big mover is the Sun.

  37. Not much of a crisis,just cooling,and times have been cooler before. Please no cooling alarmism after a single below standard crop season.

  38. Well we have a forecast high of 33 F in Wichita on Oct 30th 2019. That is a mere 31 F below average. No big deal right? If it were 31 F above average and we had a forecast high of 95 F (beating record by 7 F) then the media would be reminding us that weather is not climate, right? If we were going to be 10-30 F average all week they wouldn’t be saying anything about a climate change driven heat wave right?

    Global temps will fall like a rock once a strong La Nina actually forms – haven’t had one since 2011-12. I’m with Allen, I bet the next decade will have a cooling trend.

  39. “The alleged evidence for this fraud is climate computer models that greatly over-predict current observed warming, typically by 300 to 500%. ”

    I have a serious problem with this claim. Hansen (1988-A) has a hot bias over 2 but the rest of the prominent model runs over the years have a bias somewhere in the 1.3 to 2.0 range (1.0 being unbiased). The models run hot and I suspect intentionally so, but I would urge the authors to stick more to the data, use less inflammatory and accusing language, and carefully support their claims. Otherwise, they just get chucked into the ‘denier’ trash bin.

  40. Two facts falsify AGW: 95% of all models have been wrong & there has been a 15 year pause in global warming.

  41. Last month the warmers were writing about an unusually warm September, which has turned into a cold “Snowtober”, which probably shortened the growing season even more after an unusually cold and wet spring. Carbon dioxide in the air doesn’t seem to have much effect on temperature, but it does speed up plant growth, which could be useful in short growing seasons.

    Drill, baby, drill and frack, baby, frack!

  42. OMG, the only thing worse than a global warming alarmist is a global cooling alarmist… Amazing how can somebody criticize global warming alarmists because of real world data… and then go and predict cooling! Based on which real world data? Haven’t we just finished a weak solar cycle? Where is our temperature decline? My god… I would be laughing if it weren’t so sad.

    • “Where is our temperature decline?”

      All over North America, for a start. We’ve been breaking ‘coldest temperature ever’ and ‘earliest/most snow ever’ records in many, many places in the last few weeks.

      Yeah, maybe the weather will all suddenly return to ‘normal’ next year, but given the predictions that we’re heading into even lower solar activity in the next cycle, I doubt it.

  43. @ Joe D’Aleo, (OT) could you maybe get Mr Shanahan, Mr Barak and Mr Taylor to consider a senior citizen discount for Weatherbell membership?

  44. I just competed a study of all warm and cold periods over the past 800,000 years and discovered what must be the cause of the Ice Ages and other climate changes. I looked at oxygen isotope temperatures, deuterium temperatures, CET temperatures, sunspot numbers, total solar irradiance, production rates of beryllium-10 and radiocarbon, and cosmic ray intensity for every warm and cold period (for which data is available) in the past 800,000 years. The data is truly remarkable˗˗every cool period without exception was characterized by low sunspot numbers, indicating low strength of the sun’s magnetic field, and high production rates of beryllium˗10 and radiocarbon, indicating high intensity of cosmic rays. Every warm period was coincident with high sunspot numbers and low production rates of beryllium˗10 and radiocarbon. Thus, it is unequivocally clear that climate changes, large and small, are driven by fluctuations of the sun’s magnetic field. A book, “The solar magnetic cause of climate changes and origin of the ice ages” with full documentation is available on Amazon.

    • Don
      Thanks so much for that remark. It makes so much sense. And I know exactly what you mean. A lower strength of the solar magnetic field strength on the sun means that more of the most energetic particles are able to escape from the sun, There is a window TOA through which only that much energy is allowed. I call it God’s window.
      I was just trying to explain to someone on the other end of the world how the GB cycle works.
      https://www.climategate.nl/2019/10/84861/comment-page-2/#comment-2280961

      I doubt if he will understand it. Click on my name to read the English version of my article.

    • Bingo, Don! You’re about to hit another Home Run, with Shaviv in the batting circle and Svensmark and Soon already on base.

      Nicely done!!!

    • Don Esterbrook:

      Although you considered a large number of variables, you failed to consider the ACTUAL cause of our changing climate, which is simply the amount of dimming SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere , which are primarily of volcanic origin. There is no observable effect apart from changing levels of SO2 aerosols.

      A case in point: Between 1310 and 1315, there were annual VEI5 volcanic eruptions which spewed dimming SO2 aerosols into the atmosphere, causing extreme cooling and causing the Great Famine of 1315-13i7.

      Essentially every example of temperature increases or decreases can associated solely with changing SO2 aerosol levels.

      • Burl Henry October 31, 2019 at 10:03 am

        [ ] the amount of dimming SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere , which are primarily of volcanic origin. There is no observable effect apart from changing levels of SO2 aerosols. [ ] volcanic eruptions which spewed dimming SO2 aerosols into the atmosphere, causing extreme cooling and causing the Great Famine of 1315-13i7.

        Essentially every example of temperature increases or decreases can NOT BE associated SOLELY with changing SO2 aerosol LEVELS –

        because NOx aerosols first are condensation nuklei for atmospheric humidity starting falling rain.

        Shakespeare Years aren’t irrésistiblement associated with “famine” years:

        https://www.google.com/search?q=shakespeare+and+the+rain+it+raineth+every+day&oq=Shakespeare+and+the+rain+&aqs=chrome.

        Irrésistiblement associated with “famine” years are hungerstones:

        https://www.google.com/search?q=hunger+stones+europe&oq=hungerstonez&aqs=chrome.

        • Johan Wundersamer:

          You state that “NOx aerosols are first condensation nuklei for atmospheric humidity starting falling rain”

          For this to be true, there would have to be average anomalous global temperature changes associated with changing levels of NOx aerosols, and there is no evidence of any such changes apart from those caused by changing levels of SO2 aerosols

          Thank you for your reference to the Hunger Stones!

  45. We are having a second snowfall this year in Colorado at New Mexico border, and it’s way too early. Today at noon the temperature is still below freezing point.

    I think that observations and predictions in this article are overwhelmingly correct.

  46. A. Mac Rae & J. D’Aleo

    “The hottest USA surface temperature records occurred in the 1930’s…”

    Correct.

    A far better presentation of that fact, without any restriction to stations’ life time, was made by John Christy as well, and published e.g. on Roy Spencer’s blog:
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/US-extreme-high-temperatures-1895-2017.jpg

    The same can be shown using 18000 CONUS GHCN daily stations instead of those few of the USHCN data set:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qGV5LfKw_lFKNdZMlq15ZHz6sA1CA294/view

    But then, when you extend your focus from the little US corner (no more than 6 % of the land masses) to the Globe as a whole (nearly 40000 GHCN daily stations), you obtain this:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TFdltVVFSyDLPM4ftZUCEl33GmjJnasT/view

    You see that the 1930’s are a pure CONUS story.

    Btw, please stop telling us that US weather stations are worldwide the only accurate ones, that is simple manipulation.

    Rgds
    J.-P. D.

    • “You see that the 1930’s are a pure CONUS story.”

      See the charts I posted above, Bindidon. They show the 1930’s warmth was not restricted to the CONtinental United States. The 1930’s were as warm as today all over the globe. Or at least, the places that recorded the temperatures, and agreed, there were not a large number of recording stations but the records we do have, resemble the US surface temperature chart.

  47. I owned a ranch in east Texas with grapes from 2008 until 2016. Grapes mature based upon temperature and sunlight. When I bought the place, my grapes matured at the end of May. Each year the grapes came later and later until by 2016 they matured in August. I think my grapes were saying it was getting cooler.

  48. I have a question about the daily record high occurrences. ( https://i1.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/clip_image002-2.png?resize=438%2C240&ssl=1 )

    I’ve noticed for my little spot on the globe, when going to the NWS the year listed for a record high is now the latest year it occurred. That is, ties are no longer listed as they once were.
    (Side note: I think the first occurrence should be the year listed. That’s when it was “set”.)

    The question: Does the daily record high occurrences include all the ties? Or is it the year “set” or the latest year it occurred?
    (Or maybe this a question for Dr. Christy?)

    • To clarify.
      Back in 2007 and Al’s “Inconvenient Fluff” stuff, to satisfy my own curiosity, I copied my little spot on the globe’s record temps into Excel. (Ties were not included in that list.)
      Most of the record highs were before 1950 and most of the record lows were after 1950. (That confirmed for me personally what I suspected about “Honest Al” and what he produced.)
      (This was before I found WUWT.)
      I copied later lists and found ties were now included in them.
      I’m just wondering if “occurences” includes ties. If so, how they are handled.

  49. The real fraud is not about the validity of failed predictions but the deliberate re-engineering of the past. In any discussion one would assume that the past is verifiable but the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has rewritten the past regularly. If one takes into account UHI and weather station siting issues the adjustments go the opposite way from what is logical, past records probably slightly overstate temperatures. Furthermore when one realises that most of the world has no temperature data available due to remoteness of large continents and the percentage of the world which is ocean ,then methods to guesstimate temperatures by reference to homogenisation of weather stations often hundreds of miles away is fraught with corrupt practices leading to logical error bars so large as to make much data useless.
    President Trump famously called global warming a Chinese hoax. It is however a global hoax and until people are held to account it will continue.
    If Australia could take a lead and audit its Bureau of Meteorology , charge it’s leaders with fraud hold a very public trial and highlight to the world the deliberate nature of the deception then I think a cascade of other similar examples of manipulation will emerge globally.

    • More like he’s wiping the wall “like with a clothe” to remove the Green Gunk that still remains.

    • For “Karl”:

      IN THE 20TH CENTURY, THE FOLLOWERS OF MARX IN THE SOVIET UNION AND CHINA KILLED ABOUT 130 MILLION OF THEIR OWN PEOPLE.

      Do we really have to do this all again? Why can’t you extremists learn from your past horrific mistakes?

      Oh! You say “It will all be different this time?” No, it won’t!

      ______________________________

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/20/economists-love-carbon-taxes-lots-of-regular-folks-dont/#comment-2563040
      [excerpt]

      This video by Stefan Molyneux describes Karl Marx as an incompetent, dishonest, cheating, thieving, repulsive, hypocritical and parasitic POS.

      In summary, Stefan describes “Das Kapital” by Marx as “a diet book with Jabba the Hutt on the cover”. He was being kind to Marx – the man was a despicable rat.
      https://youtu.be/yA2lCBJu2Gg

      It is ironic that Marx’s tomb is (to some) a shrine in London, where he died in exile. The tomb was relocated and a bust erected of Marx in 1956 by the Communist Party of Great Britain.

      IN THE 20TH CENTURY, THE FOLLOWERS OF MARX IN THE SOVIET UNION AND CHINA KILLED ABOUT 130 MILLION OF THEIR OWN PEOPLE.

      • According to wiki, Karl Marx’s “Das Kapital” is the most-cited book in the social sciences published before 1950, followed by “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”, by Adam Smith.

        “Das Kapital” has been described as “a diet book with Jabba the Hutt on the cover”. Marx the man was despicable – incompetent, dishonest, cheating, thieving, repulsive, hypocritical and parasitic. In the 20th century, the followers of Marx in the Soviet Union and China killed about 130 million of their own people. Quelle surprise!
        https://youtu.be/yA2lCBJu2Gg

        Does anyone else find it distressing that “Das Kapital” is cited more often than “The Wealth of Nations”? Does this reflect our current crop of academics, who apparently think it is acceptable to espouse the teachings of Marx, a man who was a monster in his private life and created mega-killers though his teachings? Can’t anyone learn from history? Do we have to do this all over again? Life is precious – it is the greatest possible gift – but it is all too often destroyed by scoundrels and their imbecilic acolytes.

        Karl Marx’s tomb is a leftist shrine, located in London where he died in exile. The tomb was relocated and a bust erected of Marx in 1956 by the Communist Party of Great Britain.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomb_of_Karl_Marx

        Adam Smith was an infinitely better man than Karl Marx. Smith’s book “The Wealth of Nations” is one of the greatest and most positively influential treatises of all time.
        https://www.adamsmith.org/news/news/bbc-adam-smith-the-great-economist

        Adam Smith was born and raised by his widowed mother in Kirkcaldy. Smith studied at Glasgow and Oxford universities. From 1748 he became one of the circle in Edinburgh that included David Hume. In 1751 he became Professor of Logic at Glasgow University, then Professor of Moral Philosophy in 1752. In 1759 he published his ‘Theory of the Moral Sentiments’. In 1776 his ‘Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations’ was published. He died in Edinburgh and was buried in the Canongate Churchyard.

        My friend Bob Lamond, who was born in Kirkcaldy, proudly flies the Scottish flag over his home in Calgary. In 2006 Adam Smith’s badly-neglected grave was restored with £10,000 donated by Bob.
        https://adamsmithslostlegacy.blogspot.com/2006/06/adam-smiths-grave-made-respectable.html

        I recall Bob telling me there was a bust in London of Karl Marx, but no statue to Adam Smith, and the Adam Smith Institute was going to rectify that deplorable situation. On the 4th of July, 2008, a statue of Adam Smith was erected on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh by the Adam Smith Institute. Finally! 🙂
        https://www.adamsmith.org/the-adam-smith-statue/

        Regards to all, Allan

      • Mr. Macrae, you are confused. There is a difference between “climate science” and “political science.”

        • Worse, he thinks his confused opinions are a substitute for evidence. It’s like Tim Ball except in CAPS. Is there something in the water up there?

          • Karl, Loydo and Griff – separated at birth?
            Or all the same lying cowardly troll, taking false anonymous potshots from the weeds?
            Dr. Tim Ball is more of a man than you will every be.

  50. So you understand why the alarmists are in such a hurry now? It’s getting colder and soon it will be so cold that the global warming theory will have joined a pile of other false theories that scared the hell out of a significant number of people but evaporated. I am quite sure though that nobody will hold the Alarmist feet to fire on it as they will turn around and talk about the impending global ice age and sell their wonder cure for it. The racket never ends.

    • It’s political science. The pause began and they shifted away from “Warming” to “Change”.
      But the goal has always been and remains for the Public to willingly surrender Freedoms and give Government (A Global Government?) authority over all of us.

  51. To be clear, I’ve always said that I would rather be WRONG about my “imminent global cooling” prediction, and if I am correct, I’d rather the cooling is mild, not more severe.

    If atmospheric CO2 continues to increase and mild warming continues, that would be ideal. CO2 is far too low, and humanity and the environment suffer during cold periods.

    Our three clear predictions were published in 2002 – the first two are correct-to-date:

    “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”

    “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”

    In contrast, all the CAGW alarmists’ very-scary climate predictions have failed to materialize. The global warming alarmists have a perfectly negative predictive track record, and nobody should believe them.

    My purpose for making these predictions is to enable society to avoid serious policy errors and to mitigate the consequences of potential disasters. I predicted in 2013 (possibly earlier) the probability of increased Excess Winter Deaths (EWD’s) in the UK, and these increased EWD’s, unfortunately , are now a historical fact.

    We are already seeing the consequences of destructive climate-and-energy policies, especially in the UK, Continental Europe, and the developing world.

    Society is utterly unprepared for possible mild-or-severe global cooling. Energy systems have been compromised due to high costs and intermittency, all based on a catastrophic human-made global warming hypothesis that never had any scientific credibility.

    • Your “imminent global cooling” in 2002 (17 years ago) was wrong. It is now 2019 and there is no sign of cooling.

      • Another falsehood by “Karl”. What’s your other name? Loydo, Griff?

        I published the following prediction in 2002, as quoted above in my article:
        “If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

    • There is no such thing as: ” theory of catastrophic human-made global warming,”
      .
      .
      Do you know the difference between a hypothesis and a theory?

  52. What a super analysis.

    The YTD N America temp anomaly map (from Weather Bell) caught my attention. The LAT’s keeps claiming – pushing ACC/AGW as the cause of the fires – that CA has had a record hot year. I don’t think this is true.

    Can anyone here find me a YTD anomaly map for CA (w/ link). Appreciate it.

  53. The conditions that I document in my new book are in the process of occurring right now during the present Grand Solar Minimum, so we will see if my conclusion is correct in the next several decades. In all three of the Solar Grand Minimums that have occurred since 1600 the climate turned severely cold. The present GSM very much resembles the Dalton GSM. In 1999, I predicted that global cooling was coming and we have had gradual cooing for the past 20 years. Now that we are in the GSM, I predict that global cooling will become more severe in the next several decades.

  54. Interesting post. In yesterdays Great Falls MT Tribune ” More than 31 inches of snow already has been recorded in Great Falls in September and October, shattering a 35-year-old record, according to the National Weather Service in Great Falls. The previous record was 1984’s 18.1 inches. As for the October average temperature, it’s been 40.3 degrees, which is 5.9 degrees below normal. ”

    https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2019/10/27/snow-below-zero-temps-forecast-great-falls-montana/2479020001/

    Say hello to the new solar minimum..

  55. 2019 may end up with the most spotless day (sun spots) since 1913. Current stretch is 26 spotless days and 225 for the year which is 75%. Last year’s total was 221 days for 61%. There were 268 spotless days in 2008.

    Looks like a deep solar minimum is at hand. The questions are: how long will it last and what effect, if any, will it have on global temperature?

  56. After reading Ernst Becks reconstruction of the CO2 record from 1812 to 1961 from chemical measurement, the impression I get is that we could have CO2 spike to 550 ppm while the earth is cooling down, and then right after spiking it could fall back to 360 ppm. All that regardless of human intervention, what’s Greta going to say 12 years from now?
    What hurts even more, Canada could break up shortly over this CO2 madness, it could result in a civil war, thousands of people could die as a result. The 4 left wing federal parties all ran on anti Alberta oil platforms. They talk about taking the tar sands offline while unemployed oil workers are already killing themselves. Alberta secession has been talked about before, but now it’s not out of anger but fear of what comes if the province fails to leave Canada. What I believe is really driving the madness in Canada, the financial centers in eastern Canada are looking at a windfall in carbon credits for taking the oil sands out of production. They want to use them to buy Saudi oil for consumption in eastern Canada instead of relying on transfer payments from oil rich Alberta. They’ve always seen western Canadian growth as a threat to their power,now they literally want to destroy it. This is madness fed by a nonsense theory, it will not end well.

  57. Mr. Macrae, since you wrote your “paper” in 2008, you have been predicting that global cooling will start. Since then (11 years) It hasn’t. Your predictions are worthless.

  58. What’s curious to me is how nobody seems to have remarked how anomalous the 2016 El Nino was.

    Prior to 2016, global mean temperature anomaly was following a steady pattern: a long term trend + a 60-65 year cyclic component. Here, it is easy to pick out the cyclic pattern after the long term trend is removed:

    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/detrend:0.75

    As the pattern was established well before the mid-century acceleration in CO2 emissions, it is not due to that (even if concentration were tracking emissions, which it isn’t – as Allan and others have shown, the tracking of the rate of change of CO2 concentration with temperature anomaly is a much better fit).

    The cycle had peaked for the 2nd time within the record in about 2005, and was heading down, right on schedule. By now, a cooling trend should have been readily apparent.

    But, the pattern was upset by the 2016 El Nino, where you can see the sudden jump from the established pattern. It remains to be seen if this heralds a long term regime change, or if temperatures will regress back to the underlying pattern, as they did after previous El Ninos.

    • Hi Bartemis,

      Nice to hear from you; thank you for your insightful comments – hope you and yours are all well.

      I’ve been blogging about the 90-degree (pi/2) lag of the integral (delta CO2) after its derivative (dCO2/dt) for some time, and finally formalized it in this paper:
      “CO2, Global Warming, Climate And Energy”, June 15, 2019
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/
      Excel: https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Rev_CO2-Global-Warming-Climate-and-Energy-June2019-FINAL.xlsx

      After the major El Nino’s of 1998 and 2016, there were minor disruptions in the following close relationship of dCO2/dt vs global temperature:
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/mean:12/derivative/plot/uah6/from:1979/scale:0.22/offset:0.14

      As I wrote recently to my friend Madhav:
      “I think Earth is shedding heat now in this step-up/step-down pattern – I think we are in a transition zone now – we’ll see.”
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/#comment-2832918

      NASA called the shift into a PDO cool phase in 2008. It was cold for a few years and then the PDO turned positive again circa 2014. The PDO looks like it’s going negative again.
      http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo.html

      Both the cool PDO phase starting circa 2007 and the current imminent one (?) occurred at the ends of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. I think this winter will bring some cold temperature records around the world – hope to be wrong.

      I spoke with Joe D’Aleo yesterday, Joe’s winter forecast will be issued in November – Joe and his team at WeatherBell are usually correct.

      Best personal regards, Allan

        • I wrote yesterday:
          “Both the cool PDO phase starting circa 2007 and the current imminent one (?) occurred at the ends of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. I THINK THIS WINTER WILL BRING SOME COLD TEMPERATURE RECORDS around the world – hope to be wrong.”

          Looks like I’m not wrong… …damn!

          RECORD LOW TEMPS, UP TO 50 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THREATEN TO WRECK REST OF HARVEST SEASON
          http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/record-low-temps-of-up-to-45-below-zero-threaten-to-absolutely-wreck-the-rest-of-the-harvest-season
          by Tyler Durden
          Thu, 10/31/2019 – 12:00

          It isn’t supposed to be this cold in October. The official start of winter is still almost two months away, and yet the weather in much of the western half of the country right now resembles what we might expect in mid-January. All-time record lows for the month of October are being set in city after city, and this extremely cold air is going to push into the Midwest by the end of the week.
          Temperatures in the heartland will be up to 50 degrees below normal, and unfortunately about half of all corn still has not been harvested. Due to unprecedented rainfall and extreme flooding early in the year, many farmers faced extraordinary delays in getting their crops planted, and so they were hoping that good weather at the end of the season would provide time for the crops to fully mature and be harvested. Unfortunately, a nightmare scenario has materialized instead. A couple of monster snow storms have already roared through the Midwest, and now record low temperatures threaten to absolutely wreck the rest of the harvest season.

          When temperatures get significantly below zero for more than a few hours, scientists tell us that it will kill standing corn…
          A significant freeze (28°F or colder for a few hours) will kill the whole plant, and any frost will act to defoliate plants, resulting in diminished grain filling for the seeds, especially on the upper half of the plants.
          And right now we are facing a crisis because less than half of all U.S. corn has been harvested.
          In fact, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress Report just 41 percent of all U.S. corn has been harvested so far…
          In its weekly Crop Progress Report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn harvest at 41% complete, below the trade’s expectation of 48% and below a five-year average 61%.
          Minnesota is behind the most regarding picking corn: 22% vs. a 56% five-year average.
          So when I used the term “nightmare scenario” earlier, I was not exaggerating.
          The low temperatures that we have seen this week are hard to believe. According to USA Today, the temperature in one community in Utah actually hit 45 degrees below zero on Wednesday…
          Subzero cold was recorded as far south as the Grand Canyon on Wednesday morning, the Weather Channel said. Big Piney, Wyoming, plunged to minus 24 degrees before sunrise Wednesday.
          Notorious cold spot Peter Sinks, Utah, dipped to an incredible minus 45 degrees early Wednesday. This appeared to be the coldest October temperature on record anywhere in the Lower 48 states, according to Utah-based meteorologist Timothy Wright.
          That is seriously cold.
          And we have also seen many other all-time October lows in cities all across the western half of the country…
          -Bozeman, Montana: minus 14 degrees (Oct. 29 and 30)
          -Casper, Wyoming: minus 8 degrees (Oct. 29 and 30)
          -Grand Junction, Colorado: 12 degrees (Oct. 30)
          -Livingston, Montana: minus 12 degrees (Oct. 29)
          -Rawlins, Wyoming: minus 20 degrees (Oct. 30)
          -Rock Springs, Wyoming: minus 6 degrees (Oct. 30)
          -Salt Lake City: 14 degrees (Oct. 30)
          We have never seen anything like this during the month of October ever before.
          In Denver, they have actually set record lows for three days in a row…
          The temperature in Denver officially dropped to 3 degrees above zero early Wednesday morning. It was cold enough to shatter the previous record low for October 30 by 4 degrees. It was our third record temperature in 3 days and one more record is expected Thursday morning.
          It is strange that so much of the nation is experiencing such bitterly cold weather while much of California is being burned to a crisp by horrific wildfires.
          But this continues a theme that we have been tracking all year. Everywhere we look there have been bizarre weather extremes, and many expect that to continue into the winter season.
          This week, even “warm weather cities” are experiencing extremely cold temperatures. For example, the forecast called for a record low of just 19 degrees in Albuquerque, New Mexico on Thursday morning…
          Thursday morning in Albuquerque is expected to have a record low temperature of 19 degrees. It will feel like 11 degrees with the wind chill. The current record low for Oct. 31 in the city is 21.
          According to the National Weather Service, locations from Albuquerque southward, including east central and southeast New Mexico, “have not seen temperatures this cold since February.”
          But the real damage will be done as this extraordinarily cold air moves into the Midwest. According to USA Today, we could see temperatures “30 to 50 degrees below normal” in the central plains…
          High temperatures Wednesday were forecast to be 30 to 50 degrees below normal across Colorado, Texas and the central Plains, according to meteorologist Ryan Maue of BAM Weather.
          Right now, much of the Midwest is currently covered by snow. This has prevented a lot of farmers from being able to harvest their crops, and now devastatingly cold air is moving in.
          It is likely that the crop losses in many areas will be severe. And considering what is going on elsewhere in the world right now, this is something that we cannot afford.
          Despite all of our advanced technology, farmers are still deeply dependent on good weather, and if farmers do not grow our food we do not eat.
          This was already going to be an absolutely abysmal year for U.S. agriculture, and now this snap of record cold weather is going to be the nail in the coffin for many U.S. farmers.
          Without a doubt, this is an incredibly important story, and I will continue to keep you updated as I learn more.

      • I wrote yesterday:
        “Both the cool PDO phase starting circa 2007 and the current imminent one (?) occurred at the ends of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. I THINK THIS WINTER WILL BRING SOME COLD TEMPERATURE RECORDS around the world – hope to be wrong.”

        Well that prediction did not take long to materialize – RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE USA!

        Love the imbecilic headline below from USA Today – it’s cold because of global warming. 🙂

        Regards, Allan

        CLIMATE CHANGE IS MAKING WINTERS COLDER DESPITE RISING TEMPERATURES AND HOTTER SUMMERS..
        USA TODAY
        https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/30/arctic-cold-blast-breaks-temperatures-october-utah-wyoming-colorado/4098089002/

        • It was only 18 degrees in Denver, which tied for the coldest October day on record in the city.
        • Some cities are seeing temperatures 30 to 50 degrees below normal.
        • Notorious cold spot Peter Sinks, Utah, dipped to an incredible minus 45 degrees early Wednesday.

        The calendar may say October but the weather is more typical of January in portions of the western and central U.S.
        “A wave of Arctic air has infiltrated the northern tier of the United States this week, shattering record lows, and threatening as many as 70 (other record lows) through Halloween,” AccuWeather said.
        Subzero cold was recorded as far south as the Grand Canyon on Wednesday morning, the Weather Channel said. Big Piney, Wyoming, plunged to minus 24 degrees before sunrise Wednesday.
        Notorious cold spot Peter Sinks, Utah, dipped to an incredible minus 45 degrees early Wednesday. This appeared to be the coldest October temperature on record anywhere in the Lower 48 states, according to Utah-based meteorologist Timothy Wright.
        High temperatures Wednesday were forecast to be 30 to 50 degrees below normal across Colorado, Texas and the central Plains, according to meteorologist Ryan Maue of BAM Weather.
        On Tuesday, the high temperature in Denver only hit 18 degrees, which tied for the coldest October day on record in the city, the National Weather Service reported. About a half-foot of snow added to the wintry feel across the metro area.
        Denver’s low temperature Thursday morning could come within a few degrees of the city’s all-time coldest October temperature of minus 2 degrees, the Weather Channel said.
        The biting cold air for this time of year is being funneled southward from Canada into the western and central United States by a southward plunge of the jet stream, the Weather Channel reported. That dip in the jet stream will slowly migrate eastward late in the week, taking the colder air with it.
        By Friday, while the intensity of the cold will ease, even the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard will see a switch to chilly weather, the Capital Weather Gang said. Highs will hover only in the 50s from Friday through the weekend in cities such as Washington, Philadelphia and New York.
        While much of the nation freezes, Florida is seeing record highs on Wednesday, Maue said, with temperatures soaring to near 90 degrees in Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

    • Bartemis:

      The 2016 El Nino was caused by a massive reduction in SO2 aerosol emissions by China, a reported drop of 29 Megatons, due to a 2014 pollution-reduction mandate.

      When the air is cleaner, sunshine strikes the earth’s surface with greater intensity, causing increased warming.

      This warming ended due to three 2015 VEI4 volcanic eruptions (Chikurachki, Feb 16, Calbuco, Apr 22, and Wolf, May 25. The maximum cooling from an eruption typically occurs about a year or more after the date of the eruption.

      This was also the cause of the 1997-98 El Nino, where SO2 aerosol emissions were reduced by a reported 7.7 Megatons, due to Clean Air Efforts.

      There are no temperature cycles, only random changes in atmospheric SO2 aerosol levels, primarily from volcanic eruptions.

      • Krishna Gans

        1. Instead of trying to use HTML anchors (that requests some little experience), simply publish a link instead.

        2. “And certainely you aren’t even interested in. It’s not your agenda”

        Don’t guess about that, you know nothing about me.

          • Krishna Gans

            Sorry, no agenda (a typical ‘skeptic’ idiom), I’m luckily free of such nonsense.

            I use ‘wetteronline.de’ everyday since it exists, and have seen that picture probably even before you did.

            A few comments

            1. At the beginning of October 1999, we got near Berlin a harsh temperature drop down to -3 °C, and we got snow, yes, in October.

            2. But persisting degrees below 0 °C and snow we now miss since around 2014, due to successive extremely mild winters in parts of Western Europe.

            3. While we had, for the whole Germany average, over 4 °C above the 1981-2010 mean during June 2019, Spain experienced at the same time more than 2 °C BELOW average, and usually very warm corners around Sevilla had even 6 °C below. Ten thousands of tourists were disappointed.

            Ya, K. Gans: wo bleibt sie denn, die globale Erwärmung? Vielleicht hier?

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ESDd0LROc53jvSm1rZFhjkaQqif7tZ5R/view

        • Your link, Tmax vs. Tmin shows very nice, the increasing UHI, thanks for confirmation.

          What we realy have are alterning weather conditions, for western Europe it’s normal we enjoy the Atlantic driven weather, and in times of low sun activity that may change to continental driven weather, cool air from E / NE as at the moment.

          I use ‘wetteronline.de’ everyday since it exists, and have seen that picture probably even before you did.

          You have no idea, when I saw the picture for the first time, and it’s completely irrelevant.

  59. When I read this here

    Cold weather kills about 20 times as many people as warm and hot weather. Excess Winter Deaths in the USA average about 100,000 per year – equivalent to two 9-11’s per week for 17 weeks EVERY YEAR.

    Excess Winter Deaths are calculated as the difference between deaths in the four winter months (December to March in the Northern Hemisphere) less half the deaths in the eight non-winter months.

    Excess Winter Deaths occur worldwide, even in warm countries like Thailand and Brazil. An approximate-low estimate of Excess Winter Deaths is 2 million souls per year worldwide.

    More than 50,000 Excess Winter Deaths occurred in England and Wales during the winter of 2017-18 – an Excess Winter Death rate about THREE TIMES the per-capita average in the USA and Canada. Proportionally, that is about 35,000 more deaths in the UK than the average rates of the USA and Canada. Excessively high energy costs in the UK due to false global warming/anti-fracking hysteria are a major part of the cause of these Excess Winter Deaths – driven by global warming alarmists and their corrupted minions in governments and institutions.

    I get a big, big laugh.

    Of course I don’t laugh about all the persons who died mostly due to lack of the necessary social proptection against cold!

    I laugh about the deliberately frightening interpretation of these deaths.

    Why do I?

    Simply because you just need to move from the UK down to France, and you experience exactly the contrary:

    La chaleur tue plus que le froid — Heat kills more than cold (dated 12.12.2017)
    https://www.franceinter.fr/sciences/la-chaleur-tue-plus-que-le-froid

    It starts unequivocally with

    La température a-t-elle des effets sur la mortalité ? Alors que se tient le sommet Climat à Paris ce mardi, Santé Publique France publie une étude réalisée entre 2000 et 2010 en France métropolitaine sur les impacts du froid et de la chaleur. C’est très net : la chaleur fait plus de victimes.

    That means

    Does temperature have an effect on mortality? While the climate summit is taking place in Paris this Tuesday, Public Health France publishes a study conducted between 2000 and 2010 in metropolitan France on the impacts of cold and heat. It’s very clear: the heat makes more victims.

    The 2003 heat wave was responsible for far over 50,000 deaths in Western Europe.

    Did anybody notice that little detail?

    • Excellent cherry pick Bindidon! LOL

      You guys are the best cherry pickers tax dollars can buy. And you wonder why we are skeptics? Because you lefties commit lies of omission. constantly.

      Now the truth.

      Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings, published in The Lancet, also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

      Have you no shame?

      • Thank you Bob,

        Your post notes that Total Solar Intensity was at a record or near-record high at the time of the 2003 heat wave.

        I have not studied the 2003 event so have no comment, but here is an observation from a 2015 event:

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/01/the-next-great-extinction-event-will-not-be-global-warming-it-will-be-global-cooling/#comment-2785162
        [excerpt]

        Cool and cold weather kills about 20 times as many people as warm and hot weather worldwide. Excess winter deaths total over 2 million souls per year. That is relevant.

        Extreme-heat deaths are few, and are easily avoided by air conditioning, fan cooling, or drenching with water. Heat deaths often involve elderly people who are neglected, dehydrated and alone – they could easily have been saved with minimal care – but nobody cared.

        In Muslim countries, hot deaths are associated with religions celebrations. In 2015, the media made a great fuss about 700 heat-related deaths in Pakistan. They failed to report that it happened during Ramadan, when no water is consumed from sunup to sundown. These people died of dehydration and heat stroke and their deaths were entirely avoidable. Temperatures in Pakistan reportedly reached 45C, certainly not a local record.

        I have experienced 50C in Luxor Egypt and we were fine.

      • Bob Weber

        1. Thanks for insisting on

        “I get a big, big laugh.”

        while interestingly (deliberately?) ignoring

        “Of course I don’t laugh about all the persons who died mostly due to lack of the necessary social protection against cold!”

        2. I deliberately laugh about your nice picture with this ‘heat wave fueled by TSI.

        If that was the case, France would have obtained far higher absolute temperatures in 2003 compared with the historical values.

        The contrary is the case, as is shown by the top 30 of the descending sort of the monthly absolute temperatures in France since 1880:

        1900 7 25.50
        1911 8 23.86
        1944 8 23.33
        1911 7 23.23
        1904 7 23.17
        1900 8 22.95
        1900 6 22.45
        1905 7 22.37
        1921 7 22.00
        1947 8 21.85
        1900 9 21.81
        1901 7 21.54
        1906 8 21.52
        1919 8 21.41
        1943 8 21.18
        1904 8 21.10
        1943 7 21.06
        1932 8 20.95
        1952 7 20.88
        1950 7 20.88
        1933 8 20.88
        1906 7 20.86
        1947 7 20.84
        1902 7 20.84
        1923 7 20.79
        1917 7 20.78
        1928 7 20.77
        1916 8 20.73
        2003 8 20.72
        1934 7 20.70

        The (in vast majority verry aged, totally isolated) persons who died in July/August 2003 didn’t die because of the absolute day temperatures, which were not so heavily above average.

        They died because the heat excess was not evacuated during the night.

        When I have time to do the job, I will present you a raw daily TMIN anomaly stat of the French GHCN daily stations for that year wrt the mean of 1981-2010.

          • Yeah.

            Some love to stay on simple answers to complex questions.
            It’s more comfortable I guess.

            Try to process data instead of endlessly repeating your polemics!

          • Well, since you ran away last time I asked, let’s try again!

            What is the UHI adjustment you alarmists use to “process” data? Since you know everything…

          • Gator

            1. No, I don’t know everything.

            I read papers (instead of quickly scanning them for matches with what I intuitively agree or disagree to, and process data as accurately as I can, V&V included. C’est tout.

            2. I use raw data (that of GHCN daily – and not for example NOAA’s, GISS, HadCRUT’s land data), and I don’t use any station data adjustment during data processing.

            3. A few screens above, you wrote:
            “It found that roughly 80% of the stations studied had a warm bias of 1-5+ centigrade. So if data sets match, they are simply reflecting the same issue.”

            This is nonsense, as I mentioned – and used – those stations in the remaining 20% you perfectly ignored (all USCRN and a hard selection of 71 of the 1100+ USHCN stations).

            Even NOAA acknowledged the work done till 2011by volunteers at ‘surfacestations.org’, by publishing later in 2012 a list of all these 71 pristine, UHI-arm USHCN stations. The list is here:

            ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/ushcn-surfacestations-ratings-1-2.txt

            A raw-to-raw comparison of the original GHCN daily data for 46 of of these 71 selected USHCN stations with all GHCN daily data available for CONUS gave this:

            3.1: 1880-2019
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B4TzVe7rFLidKIb-dUOLwdittauW2oVY/view
            3.2: 1979-2019
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/12Khxeii6he3PhW-xKJL-nhlJkA1frWmS/view

            Draw you own conclusions!

          • So what is the UHI adjustment? Or are you fine with simply incorporating it into the record? You seem to think UHI belongs in the record, and even conflate UHI with global warming. So much confusion on your part…

          • Gator

            I’m afraid you will never [be, for obvious political reasons, willing to] understand that there is no UHI adjustment I would consider necessary.

            Simply because the comparison of a few pristine, UHI-arm weather stations with thousands of possibly UHI-infected stations gives no perceptible difference.

            A last example, that one I like the most. A few months ago, Anthony got raging about absolute temperatures measured in Anchorage being, in his mind, a lot above expectation.

            If I well remember, he compared the temperature in Anchorage (‘AK ANCHORAGE INTL AP’) with that measured by of one of these super-pristine USCRN stations not far from the town, ‘AK KENAI 29 ENE’:

            https://www.google.de/maps/place/60%C2%B043'25.0%22N+150%C2%B026'53.9%22W/@60.7236,-151.5689054,174442m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d60.7236!4d-150.4483?hl=en

            As you can see, it’s in the middle of nowhere compared with the station at Anchorage Intl AP.

            But sorry… that’s how the comparison looks between the two stations:

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/14aS2UEkD0_Uw2rC05ywbQNdIURBVW-GW/view

            What kind of UHI adjustment would YOU introduce here, Gator?? Why don’t you think of some RCC, i.e. ‘rural cold corner’ ?

            What do you think are we measuring these days? The Globe as it is today, or that as it was 100,000 years ago ?

            *
            Nevertheless, GISS has a completely different view about that, you are kindly invited to read in the page
            https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

            the following text:

            GISS Homogenization (Urban Adjustment)

            One of the improvements — introduced in 1998 — was the implementation of a method to address the problem of urban warming: The urban and peri-urban (i.e., other than rural) stations are adjusted so that their long-term trend matches that of the mean of neighboring rural stations. Urban stations without nearby rural stations are dropped. This preserves local short-term variability without affecting long term trends. Originally, the classification of stations was based on population size near that station; the current analysis uses satellite-observed night lights to determine which stations are located in urban and peri-urban areas.

            Let me guess: you will never be able to believe the stuff above,k as your ‘skeptic’ism doesn’t allow you to. That’s your problem, not mine.

            *
            Oh I forgot to thank you a lot for the link you provided somewhere above:
            https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

            Much appreciated, despite the superfluous polemic around it!

          • Bindidon, it’s cute that you believe in “pristine” stations. Stay uninformed, it suits you.

            I am a Libertarian who studied Climatology at a major university right after the global cooling scare, and right before the great global warming swindle. I have closely followed the science behind the failed hypothesis of CAGW for four decades now.

            Anomalies have no business in climatology, there is no such thing as “normal” in climate or weather. Comparing anomalies is not comparing temps. But nice attempt at fraud!

            a·nom·a·ly əˈnäməlē/ noun
            1. something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected.

            I guess for those that don’t get the big climate picture, anomalies make sense. But I started as a geology student, and ended up as a climatology student. So my perspective is a bit larger than most “climate experts”, who seem to think that the tail end of this interglacial is somehow the standard by which all climates should be compared. Again, what I learned through my education is that there is no “normal” in climate or weather, and IMHO, claims that there is a “normal” climate is simply ignorance.

            Your entire argument is moot, because you do not understand how to measure and compare temps. Anomalies are used to confuse the ignorant.

            So what is the UHI adjustment? Or are you guys simply employing it?

          • Gator:
            “there is no such thing as “normal” in climate or weather.”

            Mr. Layman here.
            I think among the general public “normal” and “average” is confused. The general public is never told that the “average” is only a 30 year average rather than a 60 year or “as far back as the records go”.
            In today’s hyped reporting (TWC has made itself a classic example) anything above or below that semi-arbitrary “average” is presented as “abnormal”.
            (As I understand it, 30 years was chosen as a standard for “average” back in the 20’s when we only HAD about 30 year’s worth of data. Why not use 60 years or the locals’ entire instrument record now?)

          • Mr Layman gets it.

            Climate is a moving target. It is a nonlinear chaotic system that we currently do not understand. Whoever creates anomalies subsequently defines “normal”, which climates never are. Pick a timeline and you create whatever narrative you like. As someone who came at this after many years of studying geology and ice ages, I tend to have a longer view on things, and a mild warming out of a very cold period is not alarming, but reassuring,

          • Gator

            “Your entire argument is moot, because you do not understand how to measure and compare temps. Anomalies are used to confuse the ignorant.”

            That you should officially tell to Roy Spencer right here in a WUWT guest post, if you have enough balls to do!

            You may pretend to have a climate science education as long as you want.

            But people discrediting the idea of generating departures from a mean in order to remove the annual cycle out of temperature series are themselves the absolute ignorants.

            Thanks.

          • There are a few things about which Roy and I disagree. Sorry that you do not understand that climates do not have means. Not everyone has the benefit of my education.

          • “Some love to stay on simple answers to complex questions.
            It’s more comfortable I guess.”

            Some try to drive the discussion into complexity and ignore Occam’s razor, only to be detected as a sciolist by individuals who actually comprehend, sir.

          • Gunga Din

            “Why not use 60 years or the locals’ entire instrument record now?”

            Another layman’s answer: in theory you might be right in requesting longer reference periods for departure building. Until recently, NOAA’s reference period was… 1901-2000.

            But transforming absolute data into departures helps you also to compare data from very different origins – e.g. surface and lower troposphere:
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p1Cjw4L7WqCZCGKUnNth1lVwergBk-tt/view

            As you certainly know, they are distant by 24 K. How would you compare them that way if the departures are based on periods like 1901-2000 resp. 1981-2010?

            And even if having the same reference period: the same applies when you compare UAH’s different atmospheric layers, e.g. LT vs. LS.

            What do you prefer? This?
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/12ntQPUMotlrIUXTYn8721WpD3S0sihjc/view

            or this?
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OO6HpUOvk_N_tC2fUt8wzDDvMzhYM8C_/view

            *
            Btw: anomalies – in the sense of the departure from a mean – are one of the most stupid words I ever discovered. But you will never get rid of it.

        • The 2003 European heatwave was the confluence of the accumulated solar-driven AMO peaking together with high TSI that generated much heat over the Sahara, driving warm air into Europe, as I noted on my graphic.

          Nowhere did I claim it was the hottest month. So what you have done is gaslight me over something I didn’t say, which is what you did earlier.

          If you think it matters so much that the highest monthly temperature is more important than the high AMO and TSI factors I mentioned, back it up with mortality data with your rankings.

          • Bob Weber:

            “The 2003 European heatwave was the confluence of the accumulated solar-driven AMO peaking together with high TSI that generated much heat over the Sahara, driving warm air into Europe”

            This is nonsense! According to the GISS temperature map for Aug of that period, the Sahara was actually COOLER than the affected area (mostly France) in Europe.

            The 2003 (and the similar 2019 heatwave) occurred for a different reason than you have stated. Both were caused by a stalled high-pressure system over those areas. which allowed existing anthropogenic SO2 aerosol emissions within those areas to settle out without being replaced, and, because of the resultant cleaner air, temperatures “soared”.

            A stalled high pressure system was also associated with the high temperatures seen in Australia last year, indicating that higher temperatures associated with a stalled high may be a common event.

        • As at this time I was in South of France Aug. / Sept, I followed the news there.
          The biggest problem had older persons, ill persons, and, it was precisely named, they didn’t drink enough. The services hasn’t been prepared to such situations, there wasn’t enough personal to protect these elder and/ or ill persons.
          And these problems you had mostly in cities, bcause of UHI. Have a look at Paris, Lyon, high buildings, narrow streets, no wind and air exchange. The area I has been in Montpellier has been much different, not far from Mediterranean Sea, the streets wide, less taller buildings and sometimes some wind.

        • @ Bindidon

          The contrary is the case, as is shown by the top 30 of the descending sort of the monthly absolute temperatures in France since 1880

          What you demonstrate there seems to be a trend in cooling 😀

        • Krishna Gans

          Thanks for your interesting reply.

          1. “And these problems you had mostly in cities, bcause of UHI. Have a look at Paris, Lyon, high buildings, narrow streets, no wind and air exchange.”

          That doesn’t explain the big amount of death in that portion of France which suffered the most of the heat wave in 2003: the Loire valley.

          There have been there, if I well remember infos from Météo France, more deaths per km² than in Paris etc.

          This religious UHI claim is really very strange.

          PS I was in Southern France in June / July at that time. There was no bit of ‘fresh’ in Toulon and surroundings either.

          2. “What you demonstrate there seems to be a trend in cooling”

          Like so many people influenced by the idea of some global cooling (nowhere visible, even not in the UAH6.0 LT record), you think that a stable or declining series of absolute values means cooling.

          But… if you build, like does UAH, the mean of all these absolute values for 1981-2010, and compute the departures from that mean for 1880-2018 and sort them, you obtain this:

          1990 2 3.29
          2003 8 3.27
          1966 2 3.03
          2015 12 2.98
          2003 6 2.96
          1949 9 2.89
          1934 12 2.73
          2018 1 2.68
          2006 7 2.66
          2018 4 2.62
          2017 6 2.58
          2007 4 2.56
          2011 4 2.49
          1911 8 2.41
          1921 10 2.40
          1937 2 2.35
          1929 9 2.35
          2002 2 2.33
          1945 4 2.31
          1961 2 2.30
          1945 2 2.27
          1953 12 2.22
          2001 10 2.18
          2007 1 2.16
          2007 2 2.15
          1997 2 2.14
          2017 2 2.13
          1936 1 2.12
          1957 2 2.11

          Here you see how exceptionally 2003 behaved: not in absolute data, but in anomalies. And not because 2003 is at the top of the list, but more because most anomaly sorts show only winter months at the top, indicating btw that the Globe doesn’t warm so much, but rather no longer cools enough.

          The major problem in France’s 2003 was not UHI, but an extremely stable, wind-free weather pattern, which kept Sahara heat (as explained by Bob Weber), and persisted from June till August in many parts of the country.

          Rgds
          J.-P. D.

        • 1900 7 25.50 ??
          1911 8 23.86
          1944 8 23.33
          1911 7 23.23
          1904 7 23.17
          1900 8 22.95 ??????????????
          1900 6 22.45 ???????????

          3 months of summer 1900 in the top 8 of this list ??? June and even August 1900 with warmer TX than 2003 ???
          Is it a joke or a “can -i-post-nonsense -things-test” ?
          or maybe GHCN data comes another country called France too , a second “France” i ‘ve never heard about ?
          (Besançon , August monthly absolute temperature 1900: 23° ; 2003 : 31,9 ° Paris 23,3° VS 29,9° etc….
          Post the same list for Switzerland mean monthly temperatures , i can’t wait for more funny things.

          • Jski

            I understand your claim – je dirais même plus: je comprends vos doutes.

            The data is originated from NOAA’s GHCN daily:
            ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/

            (about 40,000 stations worldwide).

            1. This is a monthly averaging, which by no means automatically reflects any daily situation.

            2. The ranking is partly due to the paucity of station data in 1900 compared with 2003/2019.

            3. Not all data collected by Météo France is transmitted to NOAA; and conversely, not all data transmitted by them is automatically accepted by NOAA.

            There is for example no data for Besançon in NOAA’s record. This is subject to changes, as I could see during downloads that NOAA acquired about 5,000 stations during the last year.

            4. Paris / Le Bourget was down in 2003; the GHCN daily record doesn’t contain data to compare with 1900. The same holds for Marseille / L’Observatoire which stopped activity in April 2003.

            I’ll compare Paris for July 1900 vs. 2019 and post the result.

          • Jski

            Mean of TMAX temperatures for
            FR000007150 48.8231 2.3367 75.0 PARIS/LE BOURGET 07150

            – 1900 07: 29.1 °C
            – 2019 07: 29.4 °C

            An that despite 2019 being clearly at top of the daily ranking… 1900 doesn’t even appear here. But a monthly average is a monthly average.

            FR000007150 PARIS/LE BOURGET 2019 7 25 42.6
            FR000007150 PARIS/LE BOURGET 1947 7 28 40.4
            FR000007150 PARIS/LE BOURGET 2015 7 1 39.7
            FR000007150 PARIS/LE BOURGET 2019 7 24 39.5

            *
            I would have preferred a comparison for at least 10 stations located ‘in the middle of nowhere’ instead of this single one in Le Bourget. It is a pity to have so few data for the historical record!

            Bonne soirée
            J.-P. D.

    • More “Bull**** By Bindi” (aka B*3).

      In fact, Excess Winter Deaths in France greatly outnumber deaths during non-winter months. This credible report depicts the “Coefficient of Seasonal Variation in Mortality” or “CSVM” for the Europe-14 Countries.

      CSVM is defined in the paper and CSVM is positive for all 14 countries, which means more deaths in Winter than non-Winter months.

      CSVM in France is slightly below the average of 0.16, but is still large at 0.13.

      Portugal gets the prize at 0.28, followed by Spain and Ireland at 0.21 and the UK and Greece at 0.18.

      The paper comments on the factors that drive increased Winter Deaths – one contributing factor is high energy costs and fuel poverty – thanks to the greens for that.

      Regards, Allan
      ____________________________________

      Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors
      By J D Healy
      https://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784.full

      Table 1
      Coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) in EU-14 (mean, 1988–97)
      CSVM (95% CI)
      Austria 0.14 (0.12 to 0.16)
      Belgium 0.13 (0.09 to 0.17)
      Denmark 0.12 (0.10 to 0.14)
      Finland 0.10 (0.07 to 0.13)
      France 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15)
      Germany 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
      Greece 0.18 (0.15 to 0.21)
      Ireland 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24)
      Italy 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)
      Luxembourg 0.12 (0.08 to 0.16)
      Netherlands 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
      Portugal 0.28 (0.25 to 0.31)
      Spain 0.21 (0.19 to 0.23)
      UK 0.18 (0.16 to 0.20)
      Mean 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)

  60. Well, there is the perfect Trifecta – my work here is done:

    In 2002 co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae wrote:
    http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf

    1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”

    2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”

    Allan MacRae published on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/10/polar-sea-ice-changes-are-having-a-net-cooling-effect-on-the-climate/#comment-63579

    3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/02/study-predicts-the-sun-is-headed-for-a-dalton-like-solar-minimum-around-2050/#comment-1147149
    [excerpt]

    3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”

    • Alan Macrae:

      I agree with you that we will be experiencing a period of cooling, but I would suggest that your work is not done.

      The cooling that has begun is being caused by the SO2 emissions from the VEI4 (or VEI4?) eruptions of Ambae (2018, Jul 27), Raikoke (2019, Jun 22), and Ulawun (2019, Jun 26).

      The climate record since 1850 shows that some cooling has occurred after essentially every VEI4 or larger volcanic eruption, and there is no reason to expect anything different from these eruptions.

      The cooling should continue to increase until mid to late 2020, then warming should resume, unless there are other large eruptions in the interim.

      This should be a good test of our differing views as to the cause of climate change.

      • Burl – based on my research, you are incorrect. Major volcanoes (some VEI5 eruptions like El Chichon 1982 and most VEI6 events like Pinatubo 1991+) cause significant (~0.5C) global cooling – but industrial emission and smaller volcanoes don’t have much impact. Even Mt. St. Helens (VEI5, 1980) did not have much cooling impact because it blew mostly sideways, not up into the stratosphere.

        Supporting evidence is in Section 5 of this paper.

        CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY
        by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/
        Excel: https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Rev_CO2-Global-Warming-Climate-and-Energy-June2019-FINAL.xlsx

        • Alan:

          You stated that based upon your research, I am incorrect.

          I have also done some research, and I believe that it proves that I am correct.

          Between 1850 and 2019 there were 31 La Ninas. As far as I can determine, all were preceded by a volcanic eruption, with the longer El Nino events being caused by another closely-following eruption(s).

          Within that group of volcanoes, counting only the first eruption, there were 3 VEI6 eruptions, 3 VEI5 eruptions, 23 VEI4 eruptions, and 2 VEI3 eruptions (which were augmented by increased anthropogenic SO2 aerosol emissions, as were some of the others).

          Thus, the smaller eruptions were responsible for the majority of our La Ninas, which are NOT insignificant events!

          Eruptions occurring during an El Nino do not cause a La Nina because of the higher ENSO temperatures at the time of eruption (Pinatubo/Cerro Hudson, for example).

          (As I had suggested earlier, we should be able to determine who is actually correct within the next 2 years).

          • Alan:

            By definition, all La Ninas require an ENSO temperature decrease of (-) 0.5 deg.

            They do not, in themselves, appear randomly, but are always preceded by a VEI4 or larger volcanic eruption that spews dimming SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere.

            The maximum cooling from a VEI4 eruption generally occurs 12 to 15 months after the date of the eruption, as its aerosols circulate around the globe. Variables include ENSO temperatures at the time of eruption, plume altitudes, geographical location, and amount of SO2 release.

            So far, I have found no instances of increases or decreases in average global temperatures not related to changing levels of SO2 aerosols, of either volcanic or anthropogenic origin, in the atmosphere, which excludes any solar or greenhouse gas effects.

            But we shall see what the future brings.

  61. RECORD COLD AND SNOW IN USA

    A wave of Arctic air shattered record lows in the northern portion of the U.S. this week as bone-chilling cold gripped the northern Rockies and High Plains. In Salt Lake City around 3:37 a.m. Wednesday, a temperature of 14 degrees Fahrenheit set a new daily and monthly record.

    Those living in remote northern Utah really had to bundle up early Wednesday, as lows reached minus 46 F in Peter Sinks.

    Several cities, including Chicago, Milwaukee and Madison, set new record daily snowfall amounts for the holiday, and October 2019 now ranks among the top five snowiest ever in several locations.

    Millions of (actually hundreds of) climate extremists exclaimed “I blame global warming!!!” 🙂
    ____________________________________

    OLD MAN WINTER PLAYS A TRICK ON NORTHERN US
    By AccuWeather Staff, Nov. 1, 2019
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/icymi-unrelenting-winds-fan-devastating-california-fires-old-man-winter-plays-a-trick-on-northern-us-and-tropics-activate-around-the-world/612335

    BLAST OF COLD GRIPS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS

    We’re in the final stretch of 2019 as we enter November, but it’s still not quite wintertime. That did not stop a wave of Arctic air from shattering record lows in the northern portion of the U.S. this week as bone-chilling cold gripped the northern Rockies and High Plains. In Salt Lake City around 3:37 a.m. Wednesday, a temperature of 14 degrees Fahrenheit set a new daily and monthly record.

    Those living in remote northern Utah really had to bundle up early Wednesday, as lows reached minus 46 F in Peter Sinks. That extraordinarily low temperature made it the coldest location in the contiguous U.S. while setting a new record October low for Utah. Records were also smashed on Monday in Wyoming, where subzero temperatures were reported.

    Traffic struggles along the snow-packed southbound lanes of Interstate 25 near the Steele Street overpass as an autumn storm sweeps over the intermountain West Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2019, in Denver. Forecasters predict that this second storm in two days will bring up to a foot of snow in some places in the region as well as pack an intense cold that may drop temperatures to possibly record-setting lows. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

    In addition to the crazy cold that invaded some spots, a snowstorm impacted locations from Idaho to Nebraska. At Denver International Airport, at least 12.2 inches of snow fell, which made it the snowiest October since a decade ago, when 17.2 inches fell. Hundreds of flights were canceled Tuesday, forcing hundreds of travelers to sleep at the airport. Denver’s high of 18 F Thursday tied for the coldest October high temperature on record.

    HALLOWEEEN SNOWSTORM HITS MIDWEST, SHATTERS RECORDS

    In the Midwest, a winterlike storm dumped snow across the region, breaking a 96-year-old snowfall record in Chicago. This is from the same storm that impacted the Rockies earlier this week after it tracked across the central U.S. Areas like northeastern Kansas, eastern Iowa, Illinois and southern Wisconsin got battered with heavy snow, strong winds and an unrelenting cold.

    Up to 6 to 9 inches of snow buried the Upper Midwest as the storm intensified on Halloween. Several cities, including Chicago, Milwaukee and Madison, set new record daily snowfall amounts for the holiday, and October 2019 now ranks among the top five snowiest ever in several locations.

    ****************************************

    RECORD-SETTING HALLOWEEN STORM LEAVES MIDWESTERNERS TIRED OF CLEARING SNOW ALREADY
    By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist
    & Meghan Mussoline, AccuWeather meteorologist
    Updated Nov. 1, 2019 11:37 AM
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/halloween-snowstorm-wallops-the-midwest/611593

    In Mukwonago, a suburb of Milwaukee, Halloween looked more like mid-winter on Thursday, and many residents struggled to get through the day.

    An intensifying winterlike storm dumped disruptive snowfall across parts of the Midwest on Halloween — and many cities smashed record snowfall amounts for the holiday. The late-month storm pushed October totals to rank among the top five snowiest on record in many locations.

    The heaviest snow, up to 6 to 9 inches, buried communities from southern Wisconsin to northern parts of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Hundreds of flights were delayed and canceled across the region on Thursday, and roadway conditions deteriorated as the afternoon hours wore on and snowfall rates increased.

    In Mukwonago, Wisconsin, the early snowfall caused issues for drivers on the roads. (Image/ABC News One)

    It was the snowiest Halloween on record with 5.4 inches falling in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). That amount smashed the old record of 0.4 of an inch set back in 1926. Also, the storm total of 5.8 inches which fell from Wednesday into Thursday ranks as the second highest in a single October snowstorm. The old record of 6.3 inches occurred back on Oct. 19 to Oct. 20, 1989.

    Nearby Wisconsin’s state capital of Madison also shattered its snowiest Halloween on record. Four inches of snow broke the previous record of 3.2 inches set in 1926, the NWS reported. The storm’s total of 5.1 inches now ranks as the city’s single biggest October snowstorm, breaking the old record of 3.8 inches set from Oct. 26 to Oct. 27 in 1997.

    Thursday was the fourth consecutive day on which 1 inch or more of snow has fallen in the city, something that has happened only three other times. The previous streaks had been four days during December 1950, four days during February 2007 and five days during December 1974.

    Madison also set a new monthly record of 8.1 inches. That amount surpassed the 5.2 inches of snow recorded in October 1917.

    As temperatures slipped a few degrees, roads in the western suburbs became slippery. Flight delays and cancellations were increasing at O’Hare. The airport picked up 3.4 inches of snow on Oct. 31, shattering the record for Halloween snowfall set in 1993 when just a trace was recorded.

    Wednesday was also a record snow day, with 1.2 inches falling in the Windy City. That was the earliest snow day in the season on which an inch or more fell since Oct. 20, 1989. In total, 4.6 inches of snow fell in Chicago during October 2019, making it the second snowiest October on record coming in only behind the 6.3 inches set in 1989.

    After breaking a snowfall record on Wednesday, Oct. 30, in Chicago, the snow continued to blanket the city on Thursday, Oct. 31, Halloween. (Image/Blake Dava)

    Earlier Thursday morning, the Des Moines airport recorded 1 inch of snow, marking the first time Des Moines has recorded two separate snowfall accumulations of more than 1 inch in the month of October, according to the NWS.

    Anywhere from 4 to 7 inches of snowfall had buried parts of Iowa by Thursday afternoon, leaving roads in central and eastern parts of the state snow-covered and slick, according to the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT). By 1:30 p.m. CDT, a NWS cooperative observer had reported 7 inches of snow in Lowden, Iowa, northwest of Davenport.

    More than 240 plows were out in force across eastern and southeastern Iowa on Thursday morning as snow thumped across the area, Iowa DOT tweeted. However, officials cautioned drivers to “buckle up, slow down and allow extra space between vehicles.”

    Kids had to trudge through snow in Halloween parades across the area.

    Meanwhile, Midwesterners lamented the early-season snowfall that forced them to break out the snow gear.

    “I have to clean off my car, and it’s Halloween… not okay,” one Mukwonago, Wisconsin, woman told WISN.

    “It sucks, it does,” Don Sanderson of Mukwonago, Wisconsin, said. “But this is my weekly cut-grass insurance, so I’m pretty sure I’m out of that.”

    But it wasn’t just the snow that was notable. Cold air plunged into the region as strong winds whipped through the region and the storm strengthened on Thursday.

    Thursday’s high of 35 F in Chicago will go down in the history books as the third coldest Halloween since records began in 1871, and it was the coldest since 1917. The average high for Chicago on Oct. 31 is 57 degrees, but on Thursday afternoon, the AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature hovered in the mid-20s.

    Rockford, Illinois, endured its second coldest Halloween on record as the high temperature topped out at 33. It was the coldest holiday since 1905. In 1917, the high climbed to only 32.

    Temperatures bottomed out in the teens and 20s in the Chicago area early Friday morning, which is 15-20 degrees below normal.

    The same storm system dished out snow and record cold in the Rockies earlier this week.

    ****************************************

    BIG WEATHER CHANGES TO ACCOMPANY CALENDAR FLIP TO NOVEMBER IN EASTERN US
    By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
    Updated Nov. 1, 2019 12:47 PM
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/big-weather-changes-to-accompany-calendar-flip-to-november-in-eastern-us/611662
    [excerpt]

    While September featured average temperature departures around 5 degrees above normal across most of the Midwest and Plains, colder waves in October, including one that froze residents in the Rockies this week, have helped to make October below normal, temperature-wise, for the month as a whole.

    This cold air has expanded eastward and is forecast to linger for much of the first half of November. A train of weak storm systems moving across Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. will keep delivering cold shots east of the Rockies, stretching from the Plains all the way to the East Coast.

    Heavy jackets, hats, gloves and other apparel people use to stay warm will get plenty of use across the East during the first couple of weeks of November, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Bill Deger, adding that areas farther west will feel the brunt of the cold.

    “The core of the cold will be across the northern Plains,” Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s top long-range meteorologist, said. “The cold will also spread south and east but will get modified a bit as it does so.”

    ****************************************

  62. For all aficionados of this ‘Great Global Cooling Coming Soon’

    I don’t believe that this will happen soon! But when I look at the graph below:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RL6dA_EtMkZPcMHk-fIwdTgt33JKZPip/view

    I think that Northern CONUS very well might experience it during the next years.

    This graph shows the yearly absolute TMIN °C average, for the winter months Dec / Jan / Feb, of all available GHCN daily stations located in the following states in Northern CONUS: IA, ID, IL, MI, MN, MT, ND, OR, SD, WA, WI, WY since 1899/1900.

    These 12 states were selected because they encompass those stations having shown the lowest daily TMIN temperatures since Dec 1899.

    Top 25 of this winter ranking:

    1936: -11.47
    1917: -10.90
    1918: -10.86
    2014: -10.83
    1929: -10.79
    1904: -10.73
    1905: -10.62
    1910: -10.47
    1912: -9.69
    1920: -9.57
    1937: -9.29
    1903: -9.19
    2009: -9.19
    1916: -9.18
    1913: -8.98
    1902: -8.97
    1922: -8.94
    2011: -8.82
    2010: -8.71
    2008: -8.58
    2018: -8.51
    1915: -8.47
    1928: -8.37
    1923: -8.33
    1933: -8.31

    Despite harsh temperaturues, again due to a polar vortex weakening like in 2018 and especially in 2014, 2019 appears at position 33.

    6 of 25 winters belong to the 2000’s… Hmmmh. Cela ne me dit rien de bon!

  63. https://electroverse.net/central-england-experiences-historically-chilly-october/?fbclid=IwAR0qFgXOr1mBJzYbuy2KJtvb62kBOgctsgAW8XjOM9dHnwqIKLHQ5oiFutM

    WINTER HAS ARRIVED MONTHS EARLY
    NOVEMBER 1, 2019 CAP ALLON

    Ian Campbell writes, “The media have to report the record snowfall in the Canadian Prairies, but they tiptoe around the subject, and certainly don’t discuss the ramifications for agriculture. We are in the midst of a federal election campaign here in Canada. Media and politicians are shrieking about “climate crisis”, while the Prairies are buried in winter at the beginning of autumn.” This week high temperatures will be 10 to 40 degrees below average. For those totally hypnotized by the media read that last line again, it does not say above average, it below average meaning to anyone with some rationality left-its getting cooler not warmer.

    The elephant in the room, that the press is still trying to hide from us, is the total devastation of crops from the rain and snow and the early arrival of winter in Canada and the United States. Instead of winter coming later, as one would expect if one believed in man-made global warming, the cold is coming earlier.

    Colorado ski resort – Earliest opening in more than two decades.

    THE CONTINENTAL U.S. JUST SET IT’S COLDEST-EVER OCTOBER TEMPERATURE, BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 1917

    Peter Sinks, Utah –east of Logan– broke the Lower-48’s cold temperature record for the month of October on Monday morning with a staggering reading of minus 35 degrees. What you are going to read in this essay is cold. Historic cold as winter crashes down into the northern hemisphere months early. Its a long story as the cold news events come in hot and heavy. No pun intended but the global warming religion is facing a deep freeze. When there is not supposed to be any snow in winter we were having winter storms in September and devastating winter storms in October burying the unharvested crops. The media, which is really not an honest public serving press any longer, does not see fit to tell the rest of us about new record-low yields, like it does not matter and the rest of the crap they report on does.

    “Cold Air Invasion Today,” warns the National Weather Service. A strong cold front will move into the Southern states last Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will be 10 to 30 degrees below average.

    Planting delayed in the spring, then harvesting hampered in the fall is an important untold story. The early wave of low temperatures in early October threatened not only onion and potato crops in Idaho, but also sweet corn and dry bean production.

    We’re still in October, the U.S. has ALREADY suffered 3 historic harvest-wrecking snowstorms, broken 3,575 all-time low temperature records by the 18th, according to NOAA, and Halloween has a great chance of registering below-freezing temperatures in all 50 U.S. states.

    RARE OCTOBER SNOWSTORM BURIES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THUNDERSNOW CAPTURED ON VIDEO

    Typically, such cold isn’t seen until late December through February. The previous premature big-freeze was on November 18, 2014, and even that was incredibly early, prompting meteorologist Tim Buckley to write: “This typically happens a few times during winter, but is very rare this early in the season.” And this year’s first 50-state-freeze is set to beat that by almost THREE WEEKS. Sounds like really warm news!

    Why is this all happening? THE SUN HAS BEEN SPOTLESS FOR A TOTAL OF 224 DAYS IN 2019, AND COUNTING… LOOMING GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. Just so happens that the sun has a bigger influence on climate than all the CO2 global warming alarmists can dream of.

    There are no words to describe the theft of truth. Here we are, on the cliff of entering a mini-ice age, with stupendous consequences for life, civilization and our bellies, and we have criminal psychopaths screaming about the world ending, real soon, from man-made global warming. Who do they think they are kidding? They do have millions confused. We have been constantly bombarded with global warming news which tells us not to believe with our own eyes, hear with our own ears, feel with our own skin. There are people whose basic lust in life is to control citizens’ thoughts, speech and access to information.

    RUSSIA BREAKS MULTIPLE 116 YEAR-OLD COLD RECORDS

    If you think I making this all up we have a global network of 500 scientists and professionals testifying that there is no climate emergency, not an out of control hot one at least. That did not stop the BBC, which recently went into full climate hysteria warning us that we have only 18 months to get it together to avoid climate catastrophe.

    RARE OCTOBER SNOWSTORM BURIES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

    A RECORD-BREAKING 31.6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY ACCUMULATED IN GREAT FALLS, MT

    BBC Warns Snow to Hit England Last Week of October Issues Danger to Life Warning

    Arctic storm to unleash deep freeze across Europe at End of October

    Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York warned in January that “the world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change.” Then in May Ocasio-Cortez said “you’d have to have the social intelligence of a sea sponge” to take her literally when she invoked a 12-year deadline to stop “world ending” global warming.

    A low of -5.5C (22F) was observed in Scotland October 22 — which came within just a few degrees of the UK’s all-time coldest temperature for the date set back in 1880.

    Back in 2014 The Wall Street Journal reported, “The assertion that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is a man-made, urgent problem is a fiction.” Most scientists are not into fantasy like politicians tend to be. In fact more than 31,000 scientists believe “there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.”

    Physicist Vladimir Paar has already been predicting a time when most of central Europe will be covered in ice again. It is inevitable—a coming Ice Age—it’s Nature, it’s a cycle, it’s the sun doing what it always does and it probably also has something to do with orbital cycles.

    The head of the Space Research section of the Russian Academy of Science, Professor Khabibullo Abdussamatov, in 2006, issued a press release, warning that the world should prepare for imminent global cooling. He predicted that the next ice age would start in 2012 – 2015, and would likely peak around 2055. He was looking to the most obvious reason global cooling is happening—the sun.

    Violent Climate Change is Cold and Wet

    In early October, Denver experienced bright, sunny, almost summer-like weather with 83 degree temperatures. But on Thursday, just before midnight, the temperature in the city plunged to a wintry 13 degrees — a record low for this time of year. That is a 70 degree drop! What did the mainstream press say about whats going on in the mid west, Another storm to keep chilly air in place across northern Plains through midweek

    A few weeks ago the death toll rose to 5 as flooding paralyzes Houston area. The remnants of Imelda dumped up to 43 inches of rain within three days in the areas between Winnie and Beaumont, east of Houston. Most of that rain fell in just 24 hours.

    Michael Snyder writes, “An unprecedented October blizzard that hit just before harvest time has absolutely devastated farms all across the U.S. heartland. As you will see below, one state lawmaker in North Dakota is saying that the crop losses will be “as devastating as we’ve ever seen”. This is the exact scenario that I have been warning about for months, and now it has materialized. Due to endless rain and horrific flooding early in the year, many farmers in the middle of the country faced very serious delays in getting their crops planted. So we really needed good weather at the end of the season so that the crops could mature and be harvested in time, and that did not happen. Instead, the historic blizzard that we just witnessed dumped up to 2 feet of snow from Colorado to Minnesota. In fact, one city in North Dakota actually got 30 inches of snow. In the end, this is going to go down as one of the worst crop disasters that the Midwest has ever seen, and ultimately this crisis is going to affect all of us.”

    Spain had its worst storm in over a century in September but the American media did not report it. An extreme ‘Gota Fria’ –meaning ‘Cold Drop’–battered practically ALL of Spain in September. A succession of frigid polar fronts drove temps some 16C below-average across vast swathes of the country, brought torrential rain and floods to many, and even spawned a tornado in Alicante.

    THE TOP CLIMATE SCIENTIST WHO EXPOSED NOAA AS FRAUDS: “YOU NEVER CHANGE GOOD DATA TO AGREE WITH THE BAD, BUT THAT’S WHAT THEY DID”

    Nothing Unusual About Winter Coming in October?

    NORTH AMERICA SUFFERS “UNBELIEVABLE” SNOWFALL TOTALS — STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED IN CANADA

    Parts of the nation that were mowing lawns two weeks ago broke out snow shovels as a sprawling storm sweeping across the West threatened to develop into an “all-out blizzard” over the Dakotas, where a blizzard warning has been issued. AccuWeather meteorologist Geoff Cornish said some parts of Montana have seen a foot or two of snow.

    In 2000, Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at University of East Anglia’s climate research unit, predicted that in a few years winter snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

    U.S. crops have deteriorating conditions, while harvest pace drops below half of the country’s average. As of a 15 days ago many farmers continued to wait on the sidelines to get into the fields. With freezing temperatures, heavy snowfall, and high winds set to hit the northern Plains last week, the corn in North Dakota was only 22% mature vs. a 75% five-year average, according to last Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report.

    Also, South Dakota corn was rated 36% mature vs. an 80% five-year average. Minnesota farmers have a corn crop that is just 39% mature vs. an 83% five-year average. In last weeks Crop Progress Report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn harvest at 15% complete vs. an 27% five-year average. USDA rated the crop in the mature stage at 58% vs. 85% five-year average, the slowest on record.

    A literal plague of new all-time cold records was already spreading across Western & Central U.S. last Friday, October 11.

    IMG_256
    NEVER MIND A WHITE CHRISTMAS, THE UK COULD BE ON COURSE FOR A WHITE HALLOWEEN!

    JAMESTOWN, NORTH DAKOTA DIGS OUT FROM RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL: “[WE’VE] NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE”

  64. CENTRAL ENGLAND EXPERIENCES HISTORICALLY CHILLY OCTOBER
    NOVEMBER 1, 2019
    https://electroverse.net/central-england-experiences-historically-chilly-october/?fbclid=IwAR0qFgXOr1mBJzYbuy2KJtvb62kBOgctsgAW8XjOM9dHnwqIKLHQ5oiFutM

    The UK’s October 2019 sure felt like a chilly one, but now official Met Office temperature data has confirmed it — Central England just experienced a month on par with those of the mid-to-late 1600s.

    The Central England Temperature (CET) record measures the monthly mean surface air temperatures for the Midlands region of England, and is the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence, anywhere in the world.

    Its mean reading for October 2019 came in at a nice round 10C — that’s 0.7C below the already cool 1961-1990 average (the current standard period of reference for climatological data used by the WMO).
    In the 360 years of CET data there have only-ever been 9 other years with an October average temperature of 10C — these are 1659, 1660, 1663, 1668, 1669, 1670, 1672, 1679, and 1722.

    Note how ALL of these years fall within the Maunder Minimum:

  65. Greetings, I have not had the opportunity to read all of the comments. The observations are very interesting. I would add another observation that I feel is significant. the great Lakes contain around 20% of all of the fresh water on earth. The temperature of the entire mass is a stable proxy for climate as changes can not fluctuate rapidly because of “weather”. It is interesting to note that the temperature of the deep water in the Great Lakes has a cooling trend. This trend is antithetical to the theory of CAGW.


  66. Krishna Gans October 30, 2019 at 4:00 pm
    As at this time I was in South of France Aug. / Sept, I followed the news there.
    The biggest problem had older persons, ill persons, and, it was precisely named, they didn’t drink enough. The services hasn’t been prepared to such situations, there wasn’t enough personal to protect these elder and/ or ill persons.”
    ____________________________________

    Right, everybody knows –

    https://www.google.com/search?q=elder+persons+don%27t+eat+enough+don%27t+drink+enough&oq=elder+persons+don%27t+eat+enough+don%27t+drink+enough+&aqs=chrome.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-huawei&sxsrf=ACYBGNSpKaprhg2XfgOzv3owU5vMsH5zqg:1572943966857&q=older+persons+don%27t+eat+enough+don%27t+drink+enough&spell=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj8i5Xz2NLlAhV166YKHThKDN4QBSgAegQICxAC&biw=360&bih=518

  67. NEXT WEEK’S ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE SO COLD, FORECASTERS EXPECT IT TO BREAK 170 RECORDS ACROSS US
    USA TODAY, Nov.8, 2019

    This week’s cold snap is only an appetizer compared with the main Arctic blast that’s coming next week, meteorologists said. That freeze could be one for the record books.”

    “The National Weather Service is forecasting 170 potential daily record cold high temperatures Monday to Wednesday,” tweeted Weather Channel meteorologist Jonathan Erdman. “A little taste of January in November.”

    The temperature nosedive will be a three-day process as a cold front charges across the central and eastern U.S. from Sunday into Tuesday.

    The front will plunge quickly through the northern Plains and upper Midwest Sunday, into the southern Plains and Ohio Valley Monday, then through most of the East Coast and Deep South by Tuesday, the Weather Channel said.
    _____________________________________
    Some people will say this cooling is caused by CO2 and global warming. They will be wrong.

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