Arches National Park Utah, Charles Rotter 2019

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #451

The Week That Was: 2021-04-17 (April 17, 2021)

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: There is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science. … It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty — a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid — not only what you think is right about it; other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked — to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.”

“Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can — if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong — to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.

In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another. – Richard Feynman, 1974 Caltech commencement address. [Boldface added]

Number of the Week: – Number of the Week: 53.4% for 3.6%.

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Opposing the Crusaders: Writing in National Review, Physicists Richard Lindzen and William Happer draw a parallel between the current political fad of western governments of fighting a supposed “climate emergency” and the medieval crusades. [There was even a children’s crusade when many of the children from France and Germany did not see the miracles they expected and drifted about or were sold into slavery. The accounts of what happened are not clear or definitive.]

Lindzen and Happer write:

“We are both scientists who can attest that the research literature does not support the claim of a climate emergency. Nor will there be one. None of the lurid predictions — dangerously accelerating sea-level rise, increasingly extreme weather, more deadly forest fires, unprecedented warming, etc. — are any more accurate than the fire-and-brimstone sermons used to stoke fanaticism in medieval crusaders.

“True believers assert that this emergency can be averted only by eliminating greenhouse-gas emissions. Greenhouse gases include ubiquitous water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide, and above all, carbon dioxide, a gas released when fossil fuels are burned to power transportation, generate electricity, and are used to manufacture amenities of modern life.

“Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere let sunlight warm the earth’s surface. But they absorb some of the heat radiation from the surface and atmosphere that would otherwise cool more efficiently by escaping directly to space. Greenhouse gases — and clouds — keep the earth’s surface temperature several tens of degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without them.

“So far, climate crusaders have refrained from vilifying water vapor and clouds, which make the largest contribution to greenhouse warming of the earth. Carbon dioxide, demonized as “carbon pollution,” is an improbable villain. Green plants use the energy of sunlight to manufacture sugar and other organic molecules of life from carbon dioxide and water molecules. A byproduct of photosynthesis is the oxygen of our atmosphere. Each human exhales about two pounds of the ‘pollutant’ carbon dioxide every day.

“No scientist familiar with radiation transfer denies that more carbon dioxide is likely to cause some surface warming. But the warming would be small and benign. In fact, history shows that warmings of a few degrees Celsius — which extended growing seasons — have been good for humanity. The golden age of classical Roman civilization occurred during a warm period. Cooling periods, which were accompanied by barbarian invasions, famines, and plagues, have been bad. Barbara Tuchman characterizes such periods as ‘the calamitous 14th century’ in her book, A Distant Mirror.

“More carbon dioxide will certainly increase the productivity of agriculture and forestry. Over the past century, the earth has already become noticeably greener as a result of the modest increase of CO2, from about 0.03 percent to 0.04 percent of atmospheric molecules. More CO2 has made a significant contribution to the increased crop yields of the past 50 years, as well. The benefits to plants of more CO2 are documented in hundreds of scientific studies.”

Lindzen and Happer point out that the fear of CO2–caused warming violates Le Chatelier’s principle in chemistry that:

“when a settled system is disturbed, it will adjust to diminish the change that has been made to it.”

In short, systems tend to have what is called “negative feedbacks” not “positive feedbacks” so often assumed in Bandwagon Science. Further, the concept of “tipping points” is foreign to the physical world. though it has been used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for years. [Apparently, it comes from sociology from what happens to a balance scale, which have a pivot point. Applying “tipping points” to physics requires physical evidence, otherwise it is meaningless jargon such as if a ship sails too far from land it will fall off the edge of the earth.]

After discussing the poor science behind crusades against methane and nitrous oxide (mainly from fertilizer use), the authors conclude:

“A serious review of policy-related climate science is long overdue. Crusaders will continue to retort that ‘the science is settled; it is time to act!’ But real science is never settled, nor is scientific truth determined by consensus or political diktats. Agreement with observations is the measure of scientific truth. Climate models predict two or three times more warming than has been observed. They have already been falsified. A soon-to-be published book by physicist and New York University professor Steven Koonin, Unsettled, convincingly lays out some of the problems a high-quality review would reveal.

“There is no climate emergency. Americans should not be stampeded into a disastrous climate crusade. The medieval crusades did far more harm than good, destroying the lives of many decent people of all faiths, and leaving a bitter legacy that complicates international relations and social harmony to this day. A climate crusade that destroys economies and ultimately lives will be as bad, or worse.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Jenkins on Koonin: Wall Street Journal columnist Holman Jenkins has two notable essays this week, one published April 13 on the failed IPCC storyline of high CO2 emissions and the botched coverage of the US Fourth National Assessment (2018), and one published April 16 about Steven Koonin, who is cited above. Steven Hayward of the blog Power Line has a good summary of the April 13 essay and the misleading IPCC storyline. The extreme IPCC storyline has resulted in thousands of studies that charitably can be described as Bandwagon Science.

The April 16 column is an interview titled: “How a Physicist Became a Climate Truth Teller: After a stint at the Obama Energy Department, Steven Koonin reclaims the science of a warming planet from the propaganda peddlers.” Jenkins begins:

“Barack Obama is one of many who have declared an ‘epistemological crisis,’ in which our society is losing its handle on something called truth.

“Thus an interesting experiment will be his and other Democrats’ response to a book by Steven Koonin, who was chief scientist of the Obama Energy Department. Mr. Koonin argues not against current climate science but that what the media and politicians and activists say about climate science has drifted so far out of touch with the actual science as to be absurdly, demonstrably false.”

After citing as questionable some reports from the US National Academies of Sciences about weather events and the IPCC, Jenkins writes:

“Mr. Koonin, 69, and I are of one mind on 2018’s U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment, issued in Donald Trump’s second year, which relied on such overegged worst-case emissions and temperature projections that even climate activists were abashed (a revolt continues to this day). ‘The report was written more to persuade than to inform,’ he says. ‘It masquerades as objective science but was written as—all right, I’ll use the word—propaganda.’”

Jenkins discusses some of Koonin’s background, including his decades of teaching at Caltech and work with JASON which provides classified and unclassified analysis to federal agencies. [William Happer was long associated with JASON.] Then Jenkins states:

“He began planting seeds as an institutionalist. He joined the oil giant BP as chief scientist, working for John Browne, now Baron Browne of Madingley, who had redubbed the company ‘Beyond Petroleum.’ Using $500 million of BP’s money, Mr. Koonin created the Energy Biosciences Institute at Berkeley that’s still going strong. Mr. Koonin found his interest in climate science growing, ‘first of all because it’s wonderful science. It’s the most multidisciplinary thing I know. It goes from the isotopic composition of microfossils in the sea floor all the way through to the regulation of power plants.’

“From deeply examining the world’s energy system, he also became convinced that the real climate crisis was a crisis of political and scientific candor. He went to his boss and said, ‘John, the world isn’t going to be able to reduce emissions enough to make much difference.’

“Mr. Koonin still has a lot of Brooklyn in him: a robust laugh, a gift for expression and for cutting to the heart of any matter. His thoughts seem to be governed by an all-embracing realism. Hence the book coming out next month, “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”

“Any reader would benefit from its deft, lucid tour of climate science, the best I’ve seen. His rigorous parsing of the evidence will have you questioning the political class’s compulsion to manufacture certainty where certainty doesn’t exist. You will come to doubt the usefulness of century long forecasts claiming to know how 1% shifts in variables will affect a global climate that we don’t understand with anything resembling 1% precision.

“His book lands at a crucial moment. In its first new assessment of climate science in eight years, the U.N. climate panel—sharer of Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize in 2007—will rule anew next year on a conundrum that has not advanced in 40 years: How much warming should we expect from a slightly enhanced greenhouse effect?

“The panel is expected to consult 40-plus climate computer simulations—testament to its inability to pick out a single trusted one. Worse, the models have been diverging, not coming together as you might hope. Without tweaking, they don’t even agree on current simulated global average surface temperature—varying by 3 degrees Celsius, three times the observed change over the past century. (If you wonder why the IPCC expresses itself in terms of a temperature ‘anomaly’ above a baseline, it’s because the models produce different baselines.)

“Mr. Koonin is a practitioner and fan of computer modeling. ‘There are situations where models do a wonderful job. Nuclear weapons, when we model them because we don’t test them anymore. And when Boeing builds an airplane, they will model the heck out of it before they bend any metal.’

“‘But these are much more controlled, engineered situations,’ he adds, ‘whereas the climate is a natural phenomenon. It’s going to do whatever it’s going to do. And it’s hard to observe. You need long, precise observations to understand its natural variability and how it responds to external influences.’

“Yet these models supply most of our insight into how the weather might change when emissions raise the atmosphere’s CO2 component from 0.028% in preindustrial times to 0.056% later in this century. ‘I’ve been building models and watching others build models for 45 years,’ he says. Climate models ‘are not to the standard you would trust your life to or even your trillions of dollars to.’ Younger scientists in particular lose sight of the difference between reality and simulation: ‘They have grown up with the models. They don’t have the kind of mathematical or physical intuition you get when you have to do things by pencil and paper.’

“All this you can hear from climate modelers themselves, and from scientists nearer the ‘consensus’ than Mr. Koonin is. Yet the caveats seem to fall away when plans to spend trillions of dollars are bruited.

“For the record, Mr. Koonin agrees that the world has warmed by 1 degree Celsius since 1900 and will warm by another degree this century, placing him near the middle of the consensus. Neither he nor most economic studies have seen anything in the offing that would justify the rapid and wholesale abandoning of fossil fuels, even if China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and others could be dissuaded from pursuing prosperity.”

After discussing nuclear energy and electric vehicles, Jenkins concludes with:

“Mr. Koonin says he wants voters, politicians, and business leaders to have an accurate account of the science. He doesn’t care where the debate lands. Yet his expectations are ruled by a keen sense of realities. I mention, along with some names, that I never met anyone of serious judgment who didn’t privately pooh-pooh the idea that humanity will control CO2 by means other than the mostly unregulated progress of markets and technology. Mr. Koonin nods his agreement.

“He speaks of ‘could,’ ‘should’ and ‘will’—and what ‘will’ happen is a lot less than elites, in response to current reward structures, are pretending will happen. Even John Kerry, Joe Biden’s climate czar, recently admitted that Mr. Biden’s ‘net-zero’ climate plan will have zero effect on the climate if developing countries don’t go along (and they have little incentive to do so). Mr. Koonin hopes that ‘a graceful out for everybody’ will be to see the impulse for global climate regulation ‘morph into much more impactful local environmental action: smog, plastic, green jobs. Forget the global aspect of this.’

“This is a view widely shared and little expressed. First, the mainstream climate community will try to ignore his book, even as his publicists work the TV bookers in hopes of making a splash. Then Mr. Koonin knows will come the avalanche of name-calling that befalls anybody trying to inject some practical nuance into political discussions of climate.

“He adds with a laugh: ‘My married daughter is happy that she’s got a different last name.’”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 1 [paywalled].

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Dishonesty by Omission: In the Quote of the Week, Richard Feynman asserts that integrity in science requires experimenters report all avenues explored, including failures. “Integrity in Science” is a term being used in Washington. Unfortunately, it appears to be little more than a political slogan.

In a hearing before the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and related Agencies, NOAA’s Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environment Observation and Prediction (Acting) and Assistant Administrator for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone Management (Acting) submitted written testimony. The first paragraph stated:

“NOAA’s mission is science, service, and stewardship. Our reach goes from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor as we work to keep the public informed of the changing environment around them. We know that major elements of our Earth’s life support system are changing in ways never before observed in recorded history. Foundational environmental parameters – atmospheric composition, surface temperature, ocean chemical balance, global sea levels, polar sea-ice cover, global land use distribution – are all changing at unprecedented rates.

The second paragraph went on:

“Extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, are projected to continue worsening in intensity, duration, and frequency over the coming decades in the United States and around the world, and chronic conditions, like sea level rise and heat waves, threaten both our natural environments and built infrastructure. These changing conditions significantly threaten lives and livelihoods. They put our government institutions and economy at risk, from U.S. military readiness to the insurance industry, from real estate to public health. Unless substantial large-scale action is taken to plan for and address these and other climate-related risks at the local community level, the impacts on human and natural systems are likely to worsen this century. We know that addressing climate change is crucial for our environment, our people, and our economy – as well as for job creation. Many climate change impacts are already being felt across our Nation, making climate-resilient adaptation of paramount importance. We must take bold and effective steps to safeguard our society in both the near and long term. NOAA knows climate, and we know how to inform and help prepare our nation and our communities for these challenges.”

As stated by Lindzen and Happer, there is no physical evidence showing that we are experiencing a climate emergency or experiencing a worsening of weather events. There is no mention in the testimony that atmospheric temperatures show a modest warming trend and vegetation is flourishing, which will benefit mankind.

Apparently, in the current administration hyperbole, extreme exaggeration, will substitute for reality. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, and Change in US Administrations.

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Lovelock’s Regret: In discussing failed predictions by environmentalists, Australian Tony Thomas discusses James Lovelock, a Fellow of the Royal Society. Lovelock developed the Gaia Hypothesis, a view of the Earth that sees it as a self-regulating entity that keeps the surface environment always fit for life. In 2012, Lovelock wrote a letter opposing a wind turbine project near his home, concluding with:

“I am an environmentalist and founder member of the Greens, but I bow my head in shame at the thought that our original good intentions should have been so misunderstood and misapplied. We never intended a fundamentalist Green movement that rejected all energy sources other than renewable, nor did we expect the Greens to cast aside our priceless ecological heritage because of their failure to understand that the needs of the Earth are not separable from human needs. We need take care that the spinning windmills do not become like the statues on Easter Island, monuments of a failed civilisation.” [Boldface added by Thomas.]

See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy and http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/102468/21746142/1359124381510/James+Lovelock+Letter.pdf?token=PbILkUDqi7bJiGAMgZU2%2FkO0Fx0%3D

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The Antarctic Is Balanced? Jay Zwally of the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (not NASA-GISS), and other scientists with NASA and French scientists have calibrated satellite measurements using the US GRACE instruments and the European ICESat instruments. They try to correct the different readings from the two different sets of instruments and separate changing ice mass from changing bedrock subsidence and rising. They calculate that ice mass in Eastern Antarctica, the bulk of the continent, is increasing and for Western Antarctica it is diminishing, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula. The Antarctic Peninsula is subject to geothermal activity from below the ice.

These scientists estimate that from 1992 to 2001, the gain in ice in Eastern Antarctica was greater than the loss of ice in Western Antarctica, resulting in a net increase. Beginning in 2009 the loss of ice in Western Antarctica increased, resulting in an approximate net balance. They calculate an insignificant net loss from 2012 to 2016 less than one-fifth the estimated error of their calculations. In short, there is no acceleration of ice loss in Antarctica and claims that such ice loss is causing an accelerating increase in sea levels are unsubstantiated by physical evidence. See links under Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

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Staggering Subsidies: Reports from Europe, especially the UK, reveal that the public has been misled about the costs of offshore wind power. Wind promoters have claimed the costs are falling. These claims were based on what industrial wind companies bid to get contracts to provide electricity. The claims were not based on the actual costs the public must pay in electrical fees and tax supported subsidies. In the UK, the subsidies are called Contracts for Difference. In investment terms:

“A contract for differences (CFD) is an arrangement made in financial derivatives trading where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled. There is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs.

“Contracts for differences is an advanced trading strategy that is used by experienced traders and is not allowed in the United States.”

The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) did an analysis of payments to six offshore industrial wind sites in 2020. It found:

“The level of subsidy is sufficient to cover the construction cost of these windfarms in just six or seven years, meaning that future payments will represent almost pure profit for the operators.”

“The level of handouts is an obscenity. Every time a new windfarm comes on stream, the consumer is hit with a double whammy – a relentless increase in annual subsidy payments to windfarm operators and an annual bill for fixing the damage that is done to grid stability.”

For one industrial wind site Andrew Montford of GWPF wrote:

“It turns out that a whopping £280 million of its income – 75% of the total – came in the form of subsidies…”

There is no question that industrial wind and solar fail; it’s just a question of when. Washington and State / local governments that provide subsidies or legislate mandates for wind and solar are playing Russian Roulette with the American people. See links under Change in US Administrations, Subsidies and Mandates Forever, and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind, and https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contractfordifferences.asp

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14th ICCC Rescheduled: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute has been rescheduled to October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

  • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
  • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
  • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
  • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, Michael Mann, Christiana Figueres, Jerry Brown, AOC, and Neil Ferguson are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 31. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see http://www.sepp.org/april-fools-award.cfm

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Number of the Week: 53.4% for 3.6%. According to a 2019 report from the Congressional Research Service, in 2017, 53.4% of Federal “Energy Tax Incentives” went to wind and solar, which produced 3.6% of total US Primary Energy Production (in BTUs).

Thus, the bulk of US Federal subsidies for energy are to industries that supply unreliable electricity.

Note that under “Table 1, Primary Energy Production by Source, 2017” the table breaks out Biomass (5.9% of total), includes Biofuels which is about 45% of Biomass, the rest is waste wood burnt at lumber sites and similar. Table 3, “Comparing Energy Production and Tax Incentives” does not distinguish between Biomass from other renewables. Biofuels receive the tax incentives, leading one to assume that the subsided fuels produce more energy than they actually do. See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Congress is playing Russian Roulette with the American people.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

When the sun burns

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Climate ‘Emergency’? Not So Fast

By Richard Lindzen and William Happer, National Review, Apr 16, 2021 [H/t Paul Redfern]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/04/climate-emergency-not-so-fast/

“Americans should not be stampeded into a disastrous climate crusade.”

Media finally notices that the RCP 8.5 climate model is over-hyped science fiction

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 15, 2021

Making people believe nonsense: The imaginary decline of fossil fuels

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 12, 2021

Climate Change Checkup

By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 14, 2021 [H/t William Readdy]

[SEPP Comment: Describing an essay by Holman Jenkins on UN story lines in the WSJ.]

Scientists say

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

The Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature for the Last 425 Million Years

By W. Jackson Davis, Climate, Sep 19, 2017

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/4/76/htm

“Marginal radiative forcing (ΔRFCO2), the change in forcing at the top of the troposphere associated with a unit increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, was computed using MODTRAN.”

“This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate.”

The Climate Blame Game

By Staff, GWPF, Apr 13, 2021

The Climate Blame Game: Are We Really Causing Extreme Weather?

By William M Briggs, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2021

Earth Day – years of failed doomsday, eco-pocalyptic predictions; the so-called ‘experts’ are 0-50

By Mark Perry, Carpe Diem, Via ICECAP, updated Apr 16, 2021

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/earth_day_years_of_failed_doomsday_eco_pocalyptic_predictions_the_so_called/

Lessons In Woke “Science”: Covid-19 And Climate

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 11, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-4-11-lessons-in-woke-science-covid-19-and-climate

Defending the Orthodoxy

Written Statement of Dr Stephen Volz, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environment Observation and Prediction (Acting), and Ms. Nicole LeBoeuf, Assistant Administrator for Ocean Services and Coastal Zone Management (Acting)

Hearing on NOAA Climate Services Before the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and related Agencies, Apr 15, 2021 [H/t William Readdy]

Global CO2 emissions far off net-zero trajectory: Kemp

By John Kemp, Reuters, Apr 9, 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-emissions-kemp/column-global-co2-emissions-far-off-net-zero-trajectory-kemp-idUSKBN2BW21Q

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Abrupt ice age climate changes behaved like cascading dominoes

By Staff Writers, Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX), Apr 11, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Abrupt_ice_age_climate_changes_behaved_like_cascading_dominoes_999.html

Link to paper: The anatomy of past abrupt warmings recorded in Greenland ice

By E. Capron, Nature Communications, Apr 8, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22241-w

New study: Thick sea-ice warms Greenland fjords

Press Release by Stockholm University, Apr 12, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-thick-sea-ice-greenland-fjords.html

Link to paper: The climate sensitivity of northern Greenland fjords is amplified through sea-ice damming

By Christian Stranne, et al. Nature Communications, Apr 12, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00140-8

From stardust to pale blue dot: Carbon’s interstellar journey to Earth

Carbon, the backbone of life on Earth, might have been delivered after planetary formation

News Release, NSF, Apr 14, 2021

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=302491&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1

Link to one study: Earth’s carbon deficit caused by early loss through irreversible sublimation

By J. Li, et al. AAAS Science, Apr 2, 2021

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/14/eabd3632

Link to second study: Early volatile depletion on planetesimals inferred from C–S systematics of iron meteorite parent bodies

By Marc M. Hirschmann, et al. PNAS, Mar 30, 2021

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/13/e2026779118/tab-figures-data

From the press release: A planet’s carbon must exist in the right proportion to support life as we know it. Too much carbon, and the Earth’s atmosphere would be like that of Venus, trapping heat from the sun and maintaining a temperature of about 880 degrees Fahrenheit. Too little carbon, and Earth would resemble Mars: an inhospitable place unable to support water-based life, with temperatures around 60 below zero. [Boldface added]

[SEPP Comment: Strongly doubt that too much CO2 causes intense greenhouse warming. At the surface, the atmospheric pressure of Venus is 93 times that of Earth. The Earth’s atmospheric pressure is about 150 times that of Mars. The atmosphere of Venus is about 96% CO2, not 0.04% CO2 as on earth. Also it is closer to the sun, inherently hotter.]

Thawing permafrost cools Arctic currents: This might affect fish stocks

Press Release by University of Copenhagen, April 12, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-permafrost-cools-arctic-currents-affect.html

Link to paper: Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams

By Ylva Sjöberg et al., Water Resources Research, Dec 11, 2020

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020WR027463

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Tim Flannery’s Latest Climate Triumph

By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Apr 15, 2021

But if CO2 drives temperature…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

“If climate science can’t answer those questions, it is only settled in the same sense that the Titanic is.”

‘The Science’ Isn’t Settled, Only the Spin

By Robert Murray, Quadrant, Apr 9, 2021

“The IPCC is effectively a global climate science monopoly, with unique power to estimate long-term climate trends and ways to mitigate them, such as the Paris Accords. It has access to a budget of billions, while sceptical scientists have barely peanuts for research and publicity.  In Australia they are volunteers.”

Show us the lack of money

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

“As Tony Heller acerbically Tweeted recently, ‘Climate alarmists believe the relatively tiny amount of money oil companies have distributed has corrupted scientists, but reject the idea that tens of billions of taxpayer dollars distributed by politicians has corrupted academia.’ And indeed the idea that people in government are unusually pure of motive, or insensitive to incentives, is strikingly naïve or worse.”

After Paris!

The Fossil Fuel Dichotomy: Biden and the East’s Contrasting Energy Approach

By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, Apr 14, 2021

Ahead Of G20, India Slams Linking Climate Issues To Economic Recovery

The US administration has been pushing for a strong climate agenda as part of the process of recovery from the pandemic.

Press Trust of India, Apr 13, 2021

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ahead-of-g20-india-slams-linking-climate-issues-to-economic-recovery-2412211

Boris Johnson battling alone on world stage to save COP26 climate conference as other countries demand it be delayed

By Natasha Clark and Harry Cole, The Sun, Via WUWT, Apr 15, 2021

Change in US Administrations

Biden’s Green Energy Plan Declares War on American Energy

By Stephen Moore, Heartland Daily, Apr 13, 2021

https://heartlanddailynews.com/2021/04/bidens-green-energy-plan-declares-war-on-american-energy/

What will we get for a multitrillion-dollar energy policy?

By Peter Gorssman, The Hill, Apr 14, 2021

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/548128-what-will-we-get-for-a-multi-trillion-dollar-energy-policy#.YHcUf2VF1uA.twitter

“Proponents of Biden’s energy policies claim that they will not only save life on Earth but will also have all sorts of social benefits.  

“But not spending trillions of dollars to have a system that does the same thing our electric system does now could have even greater social benefit.”

China’s Xi Jinping has not committed to Biden climate summit, John Kerry says

By Mark Suleymanov, New York Post, April 13, 2021

https://nypost.com/2021/04/13/chinas-xi-has-not-agreed-to-biden-climate-summit-john-kerry/

China, India & Brazil reluctant to cave in to US pressure on new climate targets

By Staff, NYT, Via GWPF, Apr 14, 2021

The Myth of Climate Refugees

By H. Sterling Burnett, Townhall, Apr 10, 2021

https://townhall.com/columnists/hsterlingburnett/2021/04/10/the-myth-of-climate-refugees-n2587694

Problems in the Orthodoxy

China’s environmental data: The world’s biggest polluter in numbers

By AFP Staff Writers, Beijing (AFP), April 14, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Chinas_environmental_data_The_worlds_biggest_polluter_in_numbers_999.html

“In 2019, China’s greenhouse gas emissions were an estimated 13.92 billion tonnes, twice as much as the United States.”

BASIC nations bat for finances from developed world to fight climate change

The 30th session of the ministerial committee was held on Thursday which was headed by Union Minister Prakash Javadekar

By Shreya Jai, Business Standard, Apr 8, 2021

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/basic-nations-bat-for-finances-from-developed-world-to-fight-climate-change-121040801560_1.html

China pledged to cut emissions, then went on a coal spree

By Michael Standaert, Green Biz, Apr 1, 2021

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/china-pledged-cut-emissions-then-went-coal-spree

Why China is still clinging to coal

Over half the coal plants under development globally are in China, and the country isn’t slowing down, a new report found.

By Lili Pike, VOX, Apr 6, 2021

https://www.vox.com/2021/4/6/22369284/china-coal-power-economy-climate-change

For Mexico’s president, the future isn’t renewable energy — it’s coal

By Staff, The Los Angeles Times, Via WUWT, Apr 13, 2021

India holds out against pollution ‘pressure’ ahead of climate summits

By AFP Staff Writers, New Delhi (AFP), April 14, 2021

https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/India_holds_out_against_pollution_pressure_ahead_of_climate_summits_999.html

Seeking a Common Ground

The Infrastructure Problems of the National Weather Service

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 15, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/04/infrastructure-problems-of-national.html

Are We Stifling Debate on the Extent of Carbon Dioxide’s Role in Global Warming?

Should Japan embark on Co2 reduction negotiations without understanding the essence of the matter, it may end up squandering an enormous amount of its wealth for no purpose.

By Shohei Nagatsuji, Japan Forward, Apr 8, 2021

How we fool ourselves. Part II: Scientific consensus building

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 10, 2021

One of the most famous skeptics in the world just died — but who’s going to mention that

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 10, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Includes a note from the Duke of Edinburgh thanking Ian Plimer for his book.]

Booker On Prince Philip

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 9, 2021

Science, Policy, and Evidence

German Ministry Of Health Spokesman Can’t Cite One Single Scientific Study Showing Lockdowns Are Effective

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 11, 2021

Green regs should not be one size fits all

By Ellen Wald, The Hill, Apr 7, 2021

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/546967-green-regs-should-not-be-one-size-fits-all

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Elevated CO2 Increases Flavonoid Accumulation and Cadmium Content in Black Locust Seedlings

Zhang, C., Jia, X., Zhao, Y., Wang, L., Cao, K., Zhang, N., Gao, Y. and Wang, Z. 2021. The combined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and cadmium exposure on flavonoids in the leaves of Robina pseudoacacia L. seedlings. Exotoxicology and Environmental Safety 210: 111878, doi.org/10.1016/jecoenv.2020.111878. April 16, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/apr/a7.php

Three Decades of Change in Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks at a Subtropical Australian Site

Dalal, R.C., Thornton, C.M., Allen, D.E., Kopittke, P.M. 2021. A study over 33 years shows that carbon and nitrogen stocks in a subtropical soil are increasing under native vegetation in a changing climate. Science of the Total Environment 772: 145019, doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145019. Apr 14, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/apr/a6.php

“Regardless of the likely mechanism(s) responsible, it is clear that the increase in the SOC [soil organic carbon (SOC)] stock observed at this pristine subtropical site is in direct opposition to model-based theory, which suggests it should have decreased in response to the approximate 1°C rise in temperature over the 33 year period of study.”

The Response of Sorghum to Elevated CO2, Water Stress and Nitrogen Availability

Asadi, M. and Eshghizadeh, H.R. 2021. Response of sorghum genotypes to water deficit stress under different CO2 and nitrogen levels. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 158: 255-264. Apr 12, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/apr/a5.php

Not surprisingly, water stress negatively impacted sorghum growth while elevated CO2 and nitrogen addition enhanced it. More specifically, averaged across all treatments drought reduced shoot dry weight by 36% whereas nitrogen addition and elevated CO2 enhanced it by 22% and 29%, respectively.

“Other positive findings related to elevated CO2 included (1) an enhancement of relative water content by 10% under water deficit stress, (2) improvement of the photosynthetic apparatus, and a (3) reduction in oxidative damage and stress. Consequently, in light of all their findings, Asadi and Eshghizadeh conclude ‘elevated CO2 alleviated the destructive effect of water limited stress on the sorghum biochemical traits.’”

Models v. Observations

Current climate model simulations overestimate future sea-level rise

Press Release by Utrecht University, Utrecht University Faculty of Science, Apr 9, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-current-climate-simulations-overestimate-future.html

Link to paper: Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections

By René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra, Science Advances, Apr 9, 2021

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/15/eabf1674

Empirical Evidence vs. Ecological Modelling

By Vic Jurskis, Quadrant, Apr 17. 2021

[SEPP Comment: On wildfires in Australia.]

Observed vs predicted trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

Measurement Issues — Surface

8 Longterm Australia Stations Altered From Warming To Cooling by NASA GISS.

By Kirye and P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 16, 2021

“Rarely do we see data homogenized so that a warming trend gets changed to a cooling trend. It’s always the other way around.

“No doubt many parts of the globe warmed since 1880. But NASA data alterations make it look like it’s more than it actually is.”

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

Differences of cloud top height between satellites and ground-based radar revealed

By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX), Apr 13, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Differences_of_cloud_top_height_between_satellites_and_ground_based_radar_revealed_999.html

Link to paper: Assessment of FY-4A and Himawari-8 Cloud Top Height Retrieval through Comparison with Ground-Based Millimeter Radar at Sites in Tibet and Beijing

By Bo Liu, Juan Huo, Daren Lyu & Xin Wang. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Apr 10, 2021

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0337-2

Atmospheric boundary layer over the central and western equatorial Pacific Ocean observed during COARE and CEPEX

By Yolande Serra, et al. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, October 1997

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240486909_Atmospheric_boundary_layer_over_the_central_and_western_equatorial_Pacific_Ocean_observed_during_COARE_and_CEPEX

Despite pandemic shutdowns, carbon dioxide and methane surged in 2020

Carbon dioxide levels are now higher than at anytime in the past 3.6 million years

By Staff, NOAA, Apr 7, 2021

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2742/Despite-pandemic-shutdowns-carbon-dioxide-and-methane-surged-in-2020

Changing Weather

Our 2021 hurricane forecast: A BIG season is on the way

Be prepared! The man who called Hurricane Sandy forecasts a rough 2021 U.S. hurricane season.

By Joe Bastardi, CFACT, Apr 13, 2021

https://www.cfact.org/2021/04/13/our-hurricane-forecast-another-big-year-is-on-the-way/?mc_cid=6abdf4ea81&mc_eid=ffd82d3222

Winter is not going away without a fight

By Paul Dorian, Perspecta Weather, Via WUWT, Apr 13, 2021

From Europe to Alaska, parts of the world are exceptionally cold right now

By Jason Samenow, Washington Post, Apr 8, 2021

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/07/record-cold-europe-alaska/

French growers feel the pinch as cold snap wrecks crops

By AFP Staff Writers, Ampuis, France (AFP), April 13, 2021

https://www.seeddaily.com/reports/French_growers_feel_the_pinch_as_cold_snap_wrecks_crops_999.html

“’We should have six bunches of grapes per vine. Now we’re hoping for maybe one,’ Gerin told AFP at his 17-hectare property in the heart of the Rhone valley, one of the country’s prime wine-growing regions.”

France declares ‘calamité agricole’ after record cold: What is it?

The emergency support comes after freezing weather caused significant damage to crops

By Hannah Thompson, Connexion, Apr 9, 2021

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/France-declares-calamite-agricole-after-record-cold-What-is-it-We-explain-as-cold-continues

Australian Floods

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 6, 2021

Frosty Morning and an Extraordinary Land Breeze

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 11, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/04/frosty-morning-and-extraordinary-land.html

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Apr 8, 2021

Link to paper: Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry

By H. Jay Zwally, et al. Journal of Glaciology, Mar 29, 2021

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/mass-balance-of-the-antarctic-ice-sheet-19922016-reconciling-results-from-grace-gravimetry-with-icesat-ers12-and-envisat-altimetry/0A29BAA84961428700886DCCE201912F

March Sea Ice: Arctic Stable 16 Years, Gains 504,000 Sq Km Since 2017! Antarctic Above Mean!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 14, 2021

[SEPP Comment: For the Arctic, the headline uses part of the data. Unlike NASA and others, the author shows all the data as well.]

New Study Suggests Southwest Greenland Was 6-7°C Warmer Than Today 9,000-5,500 Years Ago

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 12, 2021

Link to one paper: Insolation vs. meltwater control of productivity and sea surface conditions

off SW Greenland during the Holocene

By Estelle Allan, et al. Boreas, 2021

http://www.glyfac.buffalo.edu/Faculty/briner/buf/pubs/Allan_et_al_2021.pdf

MWP & LIA In The Ross Sea

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 11, 2021

“This all indicates that modern glacier retreats are just part of a much longer climatic cycle.”

[SEPP Comment: Evidence climate modelers ignore!]

Ross Ice Shelf Retreated 30 Miles In 19thC

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 9, 2021

Antarctica Was Warmer In Middle Ages

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 16, 2021

Harp seal pup production poor in Gulf of St. Lawrence but it won’t impact the population

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 12, 2021

Changing Earth

NASA satellites detect signs of volcanic unrest years before eruptions

By Esprit Smith for NASA Earth Science News

Greenbelt MD (SPX) Apr 14, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_satellites_detect_signs_of_volcanic_unrest_years_before_eruptions_999.html

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Brazil eyes record grain harvest as China demand booms

By AFP Staff Writers, Salto Do Jacui, Brazil (AFP), April 9, 2021

https://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Brazil_eyes_record_grain_harvest_as_China_demand_booms_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Making the administration’s claims of climate refugees fleeing to the US a myth!]

BBC Say Bangladesh Farmers Are Suffering From Climate Change–As Production Triples

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 6, 2021

Food system emissions need attention at Biden’s climate summit

Philippe Benoit & Kevin Karl, The Hill, Apr 11, 2021

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547512-food-system-emissions-need-attention-at-biden-climate-summit

[SEPP Comment: Doubt they will address the enormous benefits of more CO2 for crops.]

Lowering Standards

Citing grave threat, Scientific American replaces ‘climate change’ with ‘climate emergency’

By David Knowles, Yahoo News, Apr 12, 2021

https://www.yahoo.com/news/citing-grave-threat-scientific-american-replacing-climate-change-with-climate-emergency-181629578.html

Link to article: We Are Living in a Climate Emergency, and We’re Going to Say So

It’s time to use a term that more than 13,000 scientists agree is needed

By Mark Fischetti, Scientific American, Apr 12, 2021

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/we-are-living-in-a-climate-emergency-and-were-going-to-say-so/

Science Vs. Scientific American And NASA

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 16, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/04/science-vs-scientific-american-and-nasa/

Now do climate theory

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

[SEPP Comment: On National Geographic science executive editor.]

BBC Play Green Turtle Climate Card–But Ignore The Real Threats

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 14, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Climate Distress? ABC offers therapy and forgiveness to failed Ecowarriors who still use plastic nappies and styrofoam cups

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 14, 2021

“The ABC is just a Lifestyle Magazine for the Upperclass, paid for by everyone else.”

Daily Express Pushing To End Meat Eating

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 10, 2021

“Many dairy and livestock farmers will be unable to transition to other types of food production, because of the nature of their land and climate. Remember too the uncounted value which farmers generate by their custodianship of the countryside. Eco loons would rather see the land return to the wild.

“And what will we eat instead? As I pointed out a few weeks ago, most of the food eaten by vegetarians has to be flown into the country, making a nonsense of Net Zero targets.”

[SEPP Comment: Urban gardens sound nice, but feed few.]

Follow The Science? How The Media’s Hypocrisy Undermines Critical Thinking In The Age Of COVID

By Cameron English, ACSH, Apr 12, 2021

https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/04/12/follow-science-how-medias-hypocrisy-undermines-critical-thinking-age-covid%C2%A0-15467

Glorious Gods! Writers at The Guardian think they rule the world

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 14, 2021

Guardian Climate Expose: Big Oil Companies Pay Bonuses to CEOs who Increase Profits

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 15, 2021

Saving pollinators from an imaginary bee-pocalypse

Honeybees are doing OK, despite varroa mites, the Covid-driven economy and other problems

By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Apr 13, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Ocean temperature reconstructed over the last 700,000 years

Press Release, University of Bern, Apr 14, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-04/uob-otr041421.php

Link to paper: Snapshots of mean ocean temperature over the last 700 000 years using noble gases in the EPICA Dome C ice core

By Marcel Haeberli, et al. Climate of the Past, Apr 14, 2021

https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/843/2021/

From Richard Courtney: “They claim to determine ancient ocean temperatures to a precision to 0.4 degrees C?”

Bad Advice From Govt Pension Scheme

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 12, 2021

“I’m no expert, but I am sure a pension provider or any other financial adviser has a legal duty to be open and honest.”

Aviva Blame El Nino On Climate Change

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 12, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Aviva is a British multinational insurance company headquartered in London, England. According to its Wikipedia, “In the United Kingdom, Aviva is the largest general insurer and a leading life and pensions provider.”]

Australia likely to join the Net Zero charade

By Staff, The Australian, Via GWPF, Apr 13, 2021

Aussie ABC: Deal with Climate Guilt by Shifting Blame to Everyone Else

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 14, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Sea levels are going to rise by at least 20ft. We can do something about it

To avoid the grimmest outlook posed by warming oceans, we need to extract heat-trapping gases from the atmosphere

By Harold Wanless, The Guardian, Apr 13, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2021/apr/13/sea-level-rise-climate-emergency-harold-wanless

“Harold R Wanless, a professor of geography and regional studies at University of Miami, was one of Politico’s 50 “visionaries who are transforming American politics” in 2016.”

[SEPP Comment: As a geologist in Florida, he should know that during the last interglacial seas covered much of Florida and were about 20 to 30 feet [7 to 10 meters] higher than today. How does this “visionary” plan to stop sea level rise caused by nature?]

US power sector is halfway to zero carbon emissions

New Berkeley Lab study reviews progress towards a carbon-free power sector

By Kiran Julin, News Release, DO3/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Apr 13, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-04/dbnl-ups041321.php

Link to report: Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

By Ryan Wiser, et al. Berkeley Lab, April 2021

https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/halfway-zero-progress-towards-carbon

From the abstract: “Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher.”

[SEPP Comment: Boldface added. By reliable natural gas replacing reliable coal, which no one predicted! We do not have the technology to make wind and solar reliable!]

Claim: 1.5C Global Warming by 2030 – But There is Still a Chance to Avoid 2C

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 14, 2021

Global warming [modeling] is making India’s monsoon season more erratic

By Brooks Hays, Washington DC, (UPI) Apr 14, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_warming_is_making_Indias_monsoon_season_more_erratic_999.html

Link to paper: Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

By Anja Katzenberger, et al. Earth System Dynamics, Apr 14, 2021

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/367/2021/

Claim: Climate Change Driving Doctors out of the Aussie Northern Territory

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 12, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Scientific Survey Shows Voters Across the Political Spectrum Are Ideologically Deluded

By James D. Agresti, Just Facts, Apr 16, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.justfacts.com/news_2020_survey_voter_knowledge#results

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

David Attenborough declares ‘world would do better if humans weren’t here’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 15, 2021

“He [Attenborough] added: ‘That’s almost inevitable to some degree but let us realise that we are intruders, that we are latecomers and that the natural world, by-and-large, would do much better if we weren’t there at all.’”

[SEPP Comment: Does he include himself, his sponsors?]

‘Abolish the Rich’ to Combat Climate Crisis and Overpopulation, Says Far-Left MP Claudia Webbe

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 15, 2021

According to Wikipedia: “The basic annual salary of a Member of Parliament (MP) in the House of Commons is £81,932, as of April 2020. In addition, MPs are able to claim allowances to cover the costs of running an office and employing staff, and maintaining a constituency residence or a residence in London.”

[SEPP Comment: To most people, she is rich. Does she include herself among those to be abolished?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Greta Thunberg’s TV Show a Massive Ratings Flop

By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Apr 14, 2021

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/04/14/delingpole-doom-goblin-greta-thunbergs-tv-show-is-a-massive-ratings-flop/

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Belong To The Climate Club Or Get Penalized: The EU’s New Trade Protectionism

By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Via WUWT, Apr 6, 2021

[SEPP Comment: It’s just not only the “Ugly American” anymore!]

Questioning European Green

The Green Mirage: Why a Low-Carbon Economy May be Further Off Than We Think

By John Constable For Civitas, June 17, 2020

Summary: https://www.realclearpublicaffairs.com/public_affairs/2020/06/17/the_green_mirage_why_a_low-carbon_economy_may_be_further_off_than_we_think_496519.html

Full Report: http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/GreenMirage.pdf

From the report: “In conclusion, the European Union’s target-led, state-managed and subsidy-driven policies are likely to cause the premature adoption of sub-optimal and costly technologies, exhibiting low productivity, with resulting net economic contraction, relative to the alternatives, and wealth destruction.”

The EU’s Stunning Green Hypocrisy, At Least Trump Was Honest About Targets

By Mish, Mish Talk, Apr 15, 2021 [H/t GWPF]

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-eus-stunning-green-hypocrisy-at-least-trump-was-honest-about-targets

2021 German Coal Plant “Phaseout” Lasted Only 8 Days…Put Back Online To Stabilize Shaky Grid

German coal phaseout – lasted only 8 days

By Blackout News (Translated, edited by P. Gosselin) No Tricks zone, Apr 13, 2021

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Green Spending Is Mere Virtue Signaling That Hurts the Poor

By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, April 14, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/04/14/green_spending_is_mere_virtue_signaling_that_hurts_the_poor_772726.html

Funding Issues

Climate spending is a story of the century

By Ben Geman, Andrew Freedman, Axios, Apr 9, 2021

https://www.axios.com/climate-spending-century-investment-1dcf36a4-1587-4a88-ade1-d5709470c2ed.html

Litigation Issues

Appeals Court Upholds Dismissal of NYC’s Climate Lawsuit

By William Allison, Energy In Depth, April 1, 2021

Blame-Game Litigation Won’t Solve Climate Change

By Gale Norton and Martha Whitmore, Bloomberg Law, Apr 9, 2021

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/blame-game-litigation-wont-solve-climate-change

“The essential difference between tobacco litigation and climate litigation is that advertising was a central cause of the public’s smoking habits.

“There is no similar correlation between fossil fuel marketing practices and climate change. People fill up their tanks with gasoline because they want to commute to work or take a family vacation.”

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Power Infrastructure Prominent in Biden’s $2.25 Trillion Blueprint

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag. Apr 1, 2021

“As part of the president’s drive to address climate change, the plan also proposes closing tax loopholes for fossil fuel, buttressing carbon capture, and boosting hydrogen demonstrations with a new production tax credit (PTC).”

The Value of Energy Tax Incentives for Different Types of Energy Resources

By Molly Sherlock, et al. Congressional Research Service, Updated March 19, 2019

‘Obscene’ windfarm subsidies revealed

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Forum, Apr 16, 2021

Beatrice Wind Farm Received £281 Million Subsidy Last Year

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 12, 2021

Hornsea and the ocean of offshore windfarm subsidies

By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Apr 14, 2021

EPA and other Regulators on the March

EPA Publishes 28th Annual U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory

National Emissions By Staff, EPA, Accessed Apr 14, 2021

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks

Energy Issues — US

ERCOT Conditions Tighten Again as Outages Mount to 32 GW

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 14, 2021

Texas Has Renewable Energy – Now It Needs Reliable Energy

By Brent Bennett, Real Clear Energy, Apr 15, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/04/15/texas_has_renewable_energy__now_it_needs_reliable_energy_772797.html

Texas simply doesn’t have enough reliable electricity generators – power plants that can be counted on to produce consistently and to ramp up during peak demand. Over the last five years, the Lone Star State has prematurely retired more than 5,000 MW in natural gas and clean coal while its population and economy grew significantly.

[SEPP Comment: Subsidies to wind and solar have eroded the economics of reliable generation.]

Legislation on Infrastructure Resilience is Key to Grid Security

By Steven T. Naumann, former Vice President, Transmission and NERC Policy, Exelon, Protect Our Power, No Date

[SEPP Comment: The real need is reliable generation.]

New York’s Wind Power Plans Make No Sense

By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy, April 13, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/04/13/new_yorks_wind_power_plans_make_no_sense_772448.html

Washington’s Control of Energy

From JFK To Trump: U.S. Oil Production By President

By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, Apr 14, 2021

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/From-JFK-To-Trump-US-Oil-Production-By-President.html

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

The US May Be Getting Smaller, But Our Natural Gas Exports Are Getting Bigger

By Jude Clemente, Real Clear Energy, April 14, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/04/14/the_us_may_be_getting_smaller_but_our_natural_gas_exports_are_getting_bigger_770413.html

COVID-19 and Lockdown Response Drive Largest Historical Drop in U.S. Oil Production

By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Daily, Apr 13, 2021

https://heartlanddailynews.com/2021/04/covid-19-and-lockdown-response-drive-largest-historical-drop-in-u-s-oil-production/

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Wind and Solar Cost More

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 14, 2021

Video

Climate Insanity: German Greens, Conservatives Push For 100s Of Wind Turbines In Black Forest!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 10, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

8 Rivers Unveils 560 MW of Allam Cycle Gas-Fired Projects for Colorado, Illinois

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 15, 2021

China’s plans for Himalayan super dam stoke fears in India

By Patrick Baert and Bhuvan Bagga in New Delhi

Beijing (AFP) April 11, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Chinas_plans_for_Himalayan_super_dam_stoke_fears_in_India_999.html

What’s Been Holding Hydrogen Fuel Cells Back, and How to Change That

By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Apr 15, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Not technically or economically feasible.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

The POWER Interview: Enhancing the Safety of Energy Storage

By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Apr 14, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Does not discuss enormous scope of the issue.]

Apple to build battery-based solar energy storage project in California

By Stephen Nellis, Reuters, Mar 31, 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-environment/apple-to-build-battery-based-solar-energy-storage-project-in-california-idUKKBN2BN206

[SEPP Comment: According to the press release it will have 240 MWh of storage, less than two hours of the 130 MWs of electricity the solar plant sends to Apple’s California facilities. Guess where Apple will get the bulk of its power?]

Suntrace and Baywa r.e. complete largest off-grid solar-battery hybrid system for mining industry

By Staff Writers, Hamburg, Germany (SPX), Apr 13, 2021

https://www.solardaily.com/reports/Suntrace_and_Baywa_r_e__complete_largest_off_grid_solar_battery_hybrid_system_for_mining_industry_999.html

“The Fekola gold mine operates 24-hours a day. During the daytime, the new 30 MW solar plant allows three out of six heavy fuel oil generators to be shut down; the energy production of the residual three generators could also be significantly reduced. The 15.4 MWh battery storage compensates energy generation fluctuations and assures a reliable operation, which allows up to 75% of the electricity demand of the gold mine to be covered by renewable energy during the daytime.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Fed funding fantasy: EV charging

B David Wojick, CFACT, Apr 10, 2021

https://www.cfact.org/2021/04/10/fed-funding-fantasy-ev-charging/

Copper demand from auto industry expected to double as EVs ramp up

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 14, 2021

Health, Energy, and Climate

New Study Crushes IPCC Alarm…Hails A 22% Global Decline In Natural Disaster Death Risk Since 1990s

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 15, 2021

Link to paper: Analysis of trends in disaster risk☆

By Nicolas Boccard, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Feb 1, 2021

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420920314916

Environmental Industry

Real Threats to Threatened Species

By Paul Driessen, Heartland Daily, Apr 5, 2021

https://heartlanddailynews.com/2021/04/real-threats-to-threatened-species/

Other News that May Be of Interest

Israel sends Jordan extra water thanks to ‘US pressure’

By AFP Staff Writers, Amman (AFP), April 14, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Israel_sends_Jordan_extra_water_thanks_to_US_pressure_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Thanks to desalination, Israel has water to spare. See link immediately below.]

Southern California Desalination Plant Inches Towards Approval

By Edward Ring, Heartland Daily News, Apr 1, 2021

https://heartlanddailynews.com/2021/04/southern-california-desalination-plant-inches-towards-approval/

People may trust computers more than humans

By Staff Writers. Athens GA (SPX), Apr 14, 2021

https://www.robodaily.com/reports/People_may_trust_computers_more_than_humans_999.html

Link to paper: Humans rely more on algorithms than social influence as a task becomes more difficult

By Eric Bogert, Aaron Schecter & Richard T. Watson, Nature, Scientific Reports, Apr 13, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-87480-9

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Global Warming Making It Too Hot To Run The Boston Marathon

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 16, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/04/global-warming-making-it-too-hot-to-run-the-boston-marathon/

[SEPP Comment: Competitive runners have long said that the ideal conditions for a marathon are “50 -50 conditions: 50 degrees F and a 50-mph tail wind.” Won’t global warming increase the tail wind?]

Claim: Global Warming is Causing Strawberries to Shrink

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 15, 2021

Contains 25% of your daily guilt

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 14, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Keep carbon out of carbohydrates!]

Floating solar farms could cool down lakes threatened by climate change

By Giles Exlery, Lancaster University, Via WUWT, Apr 14, 2021

The essay starts with: “Solar power is now the cheapest source of electricity in history, according to a 2020 report by the International Energy Agency.”

[SEPP Comment: How much does a kilowatt hour of the “cheapest source of electricity in history” cost at midnight? Blocking sunlight to lakes will stop photosynthesis in the lakes, killing life!]

ARTICLES

How a Physicist Became a Climate Truth Teller

After a stint at the Obama Energy Department, Steven Koonin reclaims the science of a warming planet from the propaganda peddlers.

By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Apr 16, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-physicist-became-a-climate-truth-teller-11618597216?mod=hp_opin_pos_2

Discussed in the “This Week” section above

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Steve E.
April 19, 2021 4:33 am

ok, it’s nice that Prof Lindzen is still fighting the battle, but when the President of MIT has the following opinion piece in the Boston Globe, one has to wonder if the war is already lost…

The ‘super wicked problem’ of climate change is our Earthshot
We must find affordable, equitable ways to bring every aspect of the global economy to net-zero carbon no later than 2050.

By L. Rafael Reif, Updated April 19, 2021, 3:00 a.m.

eyesonu
April 19, 2021 6:09 am

This is another excellent report from The Science and Environmental Policy Project.

April 19, 2021 6:51 am

Here’s that Feynman Caltech commencement address about “Cargo Cult Science.”
https://sealevel.info/feynman_cargo_cult_science2.html

The famous passage starts here:
https://sealevel.info/feynman_cargo_cult_science2.html#climate

Roger Knights
April 19, 2021 4:14 pm

The NOAA official says:
 Unless substantial large-scale action is taken to plan for and address these and other climate-related risks at the local community level, the impacts on human and natural systems are likely to worsen this century. We know that addressing climate change is crucial for our environment, our people, and our economy – as well as for job creation. Many climate change impacts are already being felt across our Nation, making climate-resilient adaptation of paramount importance. We must take bold and effective steps to safeguard our society in both the near and long term. NOAA knows climate ….”

But CAGW is a result of GLOBAL emissions, and unless there is near-unanimous collective action, unilateral action is futile and costly. And it looks as though China, India, and Africa are not on board the renewables bandwagon.

How about moving to nucllear power, Mr. NOAA? Or is that too bold a step?

Last edited 24 days ago by Roger Knights
John C
April 20, 2021 1:40 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56807520 aim in U.K. is now 80% reduction by 2035.

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