Reposted from The NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 18. April 2021
It’s been a really frosty April this year across Central Europe. Germany so far has seen it’s second coldest April since records began in 1881.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
Coldest since 1917
April across much of Europe has been unusually cold, frosty and even snowy, and the media have been awfully quiet about it. The following chart shows the mean temperature anomalies with respect to the 1991-2020 reference period so far (up through April 17):
With a mean temperature of 4.5°C for Germany, April so far continues to be the second coldest since 1881, according to German DWD national weather service records. Only 1917 was colder at a mean of 4.3°C.
Another cold blast forecast for next weekend
And it likely isn’t going to change too much, as the ECMWF model is forecasting yet another unusual April cold wave with snow and frost for next week. A warm up is forecast near the end of the month, but that is still some 10 days out.
Most snowy April in 35 years
One thing is already certain: For Germans, it will be the most snowy April since 1986 – video.
The WO/GFS forecasts (left and right) see a continuation of the April winter with widespread ground frost from April 23. Extremely cold air with up to -12°C deviations from the old WMO climate mean 1981-2010 over Germany is projected on April 26 at 850 hPa. Sources: WO/GFS forecasts Tmin ground Germany and WZ/GEM forecasts TA850 Europe.
Northern hemisphere cooling continues
The German media recently claimed that “the global warming continues”, but the NCEP GFS run of April 18 shows a temperature anomaly of near zero.
Chart source: 2m-temperatures global 7 day trend
Global Warming, let’s spent $150 Trillion fighting CO2 the most important trace gas of life!
There is something going on it may need a good look into. Since beginning of the month the majority of the polar stratosphere
(30 hPa and below) is at its coldest ever recorded.
We have had a very quiet Sun and our Earth’s magnetic field is ebbing. Maybe as the Sun wakes up the solar wind will warm it back up some. When you are way at the top of the atmosphere, energetic particles coming inbound from the Sun matter.
With the St Vincent volcano going off, the first meaningful injection of SO2 into the upper atmosphere in quite some time has happened. Other volcanoes are beginning to stir. We’ve enjoyed all the warmth put into the Earth the past few decades from the very active Sun; maybe now it’s time to endure the flip side.
Well don’t forget about the Taal eruption around 15 months ago, there was definitely SO2 injected into the Stratosphere and the Australian brushfires put a lot of particulate matter in the Stratosphere.
I think I read there is currently 50 active volcanos around the world.
Careful with what you wish for…
Since you mention ‘ quiet Sun’, for a long while I have not seen anything from our solar supremo Dr. Leif Svalgaard. The latest reference I found is an abstract submitted for the the general assembly of the European Geosciences Union, starting today, so it appears Dr, Svalgaard is well and still working hard at young age of 79, 50 years of which at Stanford University.
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-282.html
It would be great if he makes an appearance and adds some comments. Maybe WUWT can put out an article on current solar activity (he usually comments on these).
Finding road isn’t easy, let’s hope ‘third time lucky’ for the snowplough driver
today’s photo
The other day I posted a deep snow clearing photo from north Monte Negro.
Regretfully since then they have another 120 cm (4 ft) of fresh snow, as seen on the photo taken earlier today
That’s cool, Vuk. No pun intended.
I live in the upper northeast corner of Illinois. Snow is in our forecast for Tuesday day and night and for Wednesday AM. Nothing special, but awfully late in the year. The geese are NOT happy campers!
Please do NOT ignore Iceland’s baby volcano, which now has FIVE (count ’em) vents, all of which emit really nasty gases along with lava flows, and they’re all lined up in a row.
All babies tend to be gassy. And this particular baby sits right smack dab on the mid-Atlantic ridge.
Please put a date on “ever”. The chart shows two years and there is no time frame as far as I can see for establishing the mean! Does a time frame of two years warrant the descriptor “evah”?
The North Atlantic has no large cold anomalies:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/04/18/1200Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-38.24,28.05,461/loc=-19.338,16.766
The 30C tropical warm pools are not yet persistent but July is when the SST usually reaches the regulating limit in the Tropical North Atlantic.
Rick,
The area between two extremes covers all years from 1979 to 2021, so it is indeed ‘ever recorded’.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
here is the first year of records
the rest of years are elsewhere in the shaded area on the graph, while current records are in red
Rick
Only red line covers more than 12 months, the rest of the records is only 12 calendar months and is repeated over again. Compare shaded areas for 2020 and 2021, you will see they are identical.
NOAA web page:
“The values for the current year (bold red line) may be compared to the average values for each day (green) and the extreme maximum and minimum values for the entire temperature analysis record from 1979 through the most recent complete calendar year, (bounding upper and lower black lines).”
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
so whats the ozone areas doing?
they always grow when it supercold up high I notice
they love using that as claims of pollution, not natural events
To difficult to tell, most likely goes against narrative, hence ‘no comment’ from NASA
https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/NH.html
You typically can have some strong late season cooling after early winter Major Warmings during low solar times. 2006 and 2009 come to mind. 2013 was somewhat similar strat’ wise in early winter but higher solar. Also had transitioning QBO phase change. Everything needs to be considered. State of ENSO etc..06′ and ’09 had El Nino’s form…’97 as well
Recent warming push is not a coincidence in regards to what we are seeing in the stratosphere and a few other variables. The 2020 La Nina had a firm grip on the oceanic and atmospheric state so it makes transitions tougher. At least early season ones. The sun woke up again last night. Cycle 25 is developing right along. NH is behind but things seem to be possibly changing. Everything is still on the table, ENSO wise. August is a key time frame in my opinion.
Sun woke up last week but yesterday decided to get out of bed
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
OK Vuk I’ll look into it the day after tomorrow
A near infinite gold mine for the “clean energy” industrial complex and its flunky supporters in government and academia seeking funding on a vast scale. Nothing less than a rapid advance of continental glaciers will change their minds and probably not even that.
Still no cure for stupid.
The cure is to redefine stupid as smart, and vice versa. Mission accomplished.
Don’t worry. Cold weather is attributable to global warming. But as any outcome is consistent with global warming, it just doesn’t mean anything useful.
Get with the program. It’s “climate change”. Global warming is now climate change….because it’s too obvious the globe isn’t warming.
Expecting 3 inches of snow tomorrow in eastern Kansas. May set records. Spring is very slow this year.
I am in northeastern Kansas and have been for 30 years. Have seen all kinds of weird weather here. I can remember 3″ of snow in early May about ten years ago. This isn’t the first time Spring has been slow in coming. More than once, we have gone from Winter to Summer with no Spring.
Well, that just means the temperature adjusters are going to raise temperatures in the Arctic, Antarctic, Central Africa and Siberia where temperature sensors are few and urban areas where temperature sensors are installed near buildings and asphalt.
That way they can keep the alleged global anomaly high.
It’s forever the hottest month evah!
An old joke: A man on top of a London bus is tearing up a newspaper and throwing bits out of the window. Asked what’s he doing he replies: “it keeps the elephants away”. “But there aren’t any elephants in central London.” He says, “Yes, effective isn’t it!”
Now the climate warriors throw taxpayers money out of the window to keep the climate crisis away. But there isn’t any climate crisis. “Effective isn’t it” they claim.
They’ll have some ‘splainin’ to do on how the Mauna Kea atmospheric CO2 levels (earth’s gold standard) continue on their steady, naturally-occurring increase…
The steadily increasing EV battery fires counteract the greenhouse effect of CO2 with the cooling effect/albedo effect of lithium carbonate particulates. Obviously.
Remember to fight climate change in an all out battle in a lightning attack without proper winter gear. Operation Barbarossa cost how many casualties?
Hard to quantify.
“Lots” is my guess
Then the return favor of Bagration
Cannot be too many casualties in the great climate wars, more the better is the whole point I think
The lack of winter clothing was a feature, not a bug, of the German invasion.
Hitler knew that if the German army began to manufacture winter uniforms, Stalin would know about it. He had spies everywhere in Europe and in the USA.(He knew what was was being shipped to Los Alamos, for example. He had accurate data on US war production, thanks to the communists in the USA in the labor movement. But, back to Russia.) The obvious lack of the Germans to prepare for a winter offensive was one of the main reason why Stalin was so sure that the Germans were not going to attack, and he ignored the information which suggested otherwise.
Hitler – quite reasonably – also believed he held another strategic advantage in eastern Europe. He thought eastern Poland, Finland, the Baltic Sea countries, White Russia, and Ukraine would revolt against Stalin once German armies entered their territories.
Just one problem with that idea – SS brigades quickly followed the Wehrmacht into those areas and murdered the local Jews, murdered the local intelligencia, and expropriated the local farmers.
It was not difficult for Stalin to convince the residents of those areas to stick with the Soviet evil they already knew, rather than exchange it for the unknown evil of Nazi Germany.
At the time of Barbarossa, the only Jews not already in Hitler’s clutches were in Russia. Hitler attacked Russia to get at their Jews, and he even diverted resources from the ordinary military to the SS in order to maximize the number of Jews killed. His priorities were not readily grasped by rational people. He may very likely have understood by this time that he could not win the war.
So Stalin had an eagle eye on clothing retail but missed 200 divisions gathered on his border! What a guy!
As if there weren’t already enough misery and suffering in Germany in April 1917. But at least its Air Force was enjoying success.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_April
… and before some smart@rse gets his knickers in a twist… yes, we know, it’s weather.
CB
…but if its a 12 degree excursion the other way it’s climate change…you know that…
Of course, goes without saying 😉
Around end of this week, a new cold snap will hit Germany again with snow up to the
end of April.
Three models:
In terms of global warming/latest nom-de-guerre, it’s as meaningless as last summer’s Siberian heatwave. The earth surface is a constantly changing pattern of areas above and below ‘normal’, sometimes a cold pool randomly sticks in one place, sometimes a hot, sometimes they repeatedly reinforce. This used to be known as random weather, a blocking pressure pattern etc.
No Texas sized headlines of catastrophic failure of electrical grid, no homeless freezing in the streets, no ultra high power bills … Germany must be doing something right to manage such a cold snap!
no ultra high power bills
It’s a joke, isn’t ?
Germany prices pretty low compared to $9,000 per megawatt-hour spot prices Texans endured during their cold snap
More to say ?
It is difficult to get a true rate for Texas due to the ability to contract with multiple companies, however the highest rate, a month to month contract, is around 1/2 of the rate in Germany.
Other plans run around 1/3 of the German prices.
And, as has been shown in articles here on WUWT, much of the problem in Texas was due to a shortage of natural gas likely caused by Obama EPA requirements for natural gas infrastructure converting from gas fueled to electric pumping. When the electricity was cut off, so was the gas supply it that area. A self fulfilling green result, fossil fuels FAILED!
I pay around 0.11 per KwH abd because I had a contract with fixed averaged rates I didn’t pay a dime extra for power during the freeze. It was the people seeking variable rates with small suppliers that got hammered just like with fixed rate a and variable rate montages, variables are great right up until they aren’t.
That graph is interesting. I’m in NE Illinois, price per KWh for electricity (just the power, am not including delivery) is $0.05835. Add in the transmission charge of $0.01216, and it comes to about $0.07+/- KWh. I’m not including the other stuff, but the monthly charge overall, including my use of my (brand new) gas furnace is about $41/month.
That’s just for winter and a very, very late spring. Summer won’t require the furnace (I hope!), so we’ll see what it comes to, but that’s just for my electric bill. Gas is through a different company.
Affordable, and it had better stay that way.
Spot prices are not to compare to household prices I spoke about
Germany has excellent foreign suppliers of electricity generated by coal and nuclear… they’re just located outside German borders. Germany simply outsourced its power supplies. At great cost.
Texas electric power is all generated within its borders.
In the state generated except for the wind which is still being installed.
If you look at the date from the Feb 8 storm, it was the collapse of wind power which caused the problems.
Yeah, it’s called coal, natural gas, a bit of nuclear and importing from your neighbours.
Yes, exactly, that (borrowing from neighbors and backup generating supply) is how Germany avoided outages and ultra high spot prices. Seems to be working well in Germany unlike Texas and California.
The green energy wind and solar often suffer from negative spot prices, that means Germany has to pay when Sizzerland or Austria take the surplus to fill their storage capacity – and pay once more, when they have a demand in case of windless an sunless days and nights.
One reason for our high prices.
Wait the coalplants finally shut down…….
Depends what you mean by “working well”.
Looks to me like Germany are painting themselves into a corner.
How would you feel if Putin’s hand was on your gas tap, just as you tie one arm behind your back by dismantling nuclear and coal plants?
Meanwhile the price of electricity, in an ever electrifying world, just keeps going up for your citizens.
Which hand would you prefer on the gas tap? So far Germany has a choice of Putin or Biden – Russian or American gas. Frankly, I’m not too sure I’d want Biden supplying my gas at this moment – he’s likely to turn it off for some political whim at a moment’s notice.
There are indeed more. But how many can guarantee bulk deliveries in quantities large enough to satisfy the power needs of an entire developed country whilst keeping costs down? Realistically it comes down to bulk sea shipments from America or piped in from Russia.
Germans will be fit people because human power will become an ever increasing means of doing things. Bicycles will replace automobiles. M-B are ahead of the game here:
https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/design/style/bicycle/
I figure the badge will add significantly to the cost.
Powering EVs will be only for the very wealthy and those connected to government.
RelPerm, the system is limping along for now, as long as there is enough power elsewhere to import.
What happens when the inevitable happens and a wind drought hits Germany, England and others at same time, a statistical certainty, after more coal and nuclear are shut in?
I can only hope this occurs in summer rather than winter, but it’s guaranteed it’s going to happen eventually
UK has the same problem.
Wind .. MIA
GAS carrying the load YET AGAIN, with help from Nuclear, Wood from the US…
and COAL !
It has been this way for well over a week. Those blocking highs.
Germany would expect to have regular periods of freezing weather, and make provisions for power supplies accordingly.
Texas on the other hand, is more your heat-waves kinda place, where keeping the aircon pumping would be the main concern.
(But yes they did get caught out badly by “following the science”. Perhaps from here on they will be guided by what history tells them, not models).
Probably should put this in perspective. The cold in Texas occurred in February and was one of the coldest snaps in the history of the State. Not the worst but one of the worst. Well below what was usually reache
The cold in Germany is one of the coldest Aprils but wouldn’t rate a second look if it occurred in January or February.
You can’t compare the two events. Texas was completely unprepared for a cold of that magnitude. Germany is completely prepared for this level of cold, just not in this month.
If you really want to compare the two, then compare Texas having one of its hottest Octobers in history with Germany having one of its coldest Aprils.
This is an April cold snap. Do we need to tell you about the difference between April and February?
yeah russian gas and imported nuke n other supply
OOPS.. Whole of the European grid on a knife-edge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid
You are comparing record low February temperatures in Texas to record low April temperatures in Germany.
Sorry, that is not serious.
Germany must be doing something right to manage such a cold snap!
Yes they’ve turned their coal fired power stations back on
And, meanwhile, the central US is under a Hard Freeze warning for Tuesday and Wednesday. All my fruit trees are in full bloom, as are all the orchards in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.
This will be our third year in a row with frost after the USDA “last frost by” date, here in the Southern Central Plains.
Are there any consequences (apart from the loss of credibility) for the groups making these failed predictions? Or do they simply get to predict ‘warmer than normal’ forever and ever?
Good enough for government work.
had consistent overnight freeze/frost at my house (Willamette valley Oregon) through the first half of April. Somewhat due to lack of usual cloud cover.
But consistent cold is consistent cold … three weeks of consistent overnight frost ending in the middle of April hasn’t happened in my memory.
Checking the official temp records shows the official overnight lows were all (but one) above freezing by 2 to 4 degrees F … but when I have to scrape the ice off the the windshield in the morning & the lawn is white, I am pretty sure it got below freezing at my house (about 5 miles from the official station).
It’s a CLIMATE CRISIS.
Weather, not climate.
But it demonstrates once again that geh weather varies by about 30°C everywhere, year on any given calendar date, year on year.
And AGW is only feared to cause 3°C warming in a century.
Thus, once again, coping with the weather means coping with a change that’s 10 x greater and 100 x faster than AGW worst-case.
If we just stick with adaptation to the weather we needn’t worry about mitigation. The impact of AGW is just too small to be noticed.
bUt ThA PoWlAr BeArS!!
If they die, who will be in our Coca-Cola commercials?!! Who will eat our seals?!?! Who will terrorize northern communities?!?!
Not to worry, Tom: the polar bears are mixing it up with the grizzlies so that there will be more grizzled polar bears available. Eventually, they’ll get it straightened out.
It’s clearly Globull Warming that caused Germany to get cold. How could there be any doubt?!
Yeah well. Be prepared for a monster Atlantic 2021 hurricane season. Weatherbell.com is forecasting as much as SIX TIMES the average hurricane season impact on the Gulf Coast, and parts of the southeast coast.
See the latest Saturday Summary video at Weatherbell.
OK. Your point is?
Just wondering.
So a late spring and then last year didn’t autumn come early. In the UK we were very close to the coldest August Bank Holiday weekend ever with people putting their heating on.
Winter 1981/2 started early in central Europe (1 metre of snow in the first week of November) and ended late (snow only left the valleys in late April in Austria).
These things happen: it’s neither global warming nor global cooling.
It’s once in a generation or so weather.
In 1982/3, winter arrived late in Austria and left relatively early.
These things happen….
Spring is sprung, the grass is riz
I wonder where the boidies is
They say the boid is on the wing
But that’s absoid, the wing is on the boid!
This poet would have had great fun with how absoid this global warming is.
I am fed up with this cold weather.
It is the second half of April, but my heating is running at the full force.
WHEN IS THIS WINTER OVER???
May 1st 82021….
Fortunately or unfortunately in Texas we got it all out of the way in one week.
Austin and Dallas are forecasted to reach all-time lows this week.
Wow, I guess 40 is pretty chilly for this time of year, not good for tomato plants.
Alex, you have not sacrificed a plate of really, really sharp cheddar with folded wheat crackers to Mother Nature, nor have you toasted the Old Gal with an inexpensive (cheap) but pleasant wine, and some grapes.
For shame.
You must do penance by creating a proper platter of cheese and crackers and garlic-stuffed olives and include a modest but perky red vintage from Toscana, and some grapes.
This does not include doing the mung bean dance in the moonlight and spooking your neighbors.
April 20, 2021 and the morning temp is wobbling between 34F and 33F. I am NOT a happy goose and duck photographer.
Alex. Ditto.
I live in the East Midlands of the UK and, the last two days in August 2020 (high summer) my heating came on automatically (set at 12C). This has never happened before that I can remember, and, like you in late(ish) April the heating is still on! I hope Global Warming kicks in soon!
OK, I can hear them now, “Don’t you know the difference between climate and weather?”
I think they should just declare victory and go home.
But one warmer day, it’s a climate crisis as never seen before 😀
Merkell brought in a 25 euro per tonne of carbon dioxide emissions released by the heating sector at start of year … so the government is laughing all the way to bank.
And? It isn’t the start of the new ice age or even a halt to warming.
And I remind all of the NoTricksZone total fail on the so called total wind and solar collapse in Gemrany in February, marked as ‘mostly false’ by fact checkers Snopes.
Fact checkers as you are ??? 😀 😀 😀
You display your gullibility by referencing snopes. Everyone knows they’re part of the propaganda machine. They’re Fact Cancellers, not fact checkers.
When did Snopes become fact checkers? Snopes is a libtard website that has never been trustworthy.
Many years ago (like 20ish) Snopes had a section of “fake” fact-checks that came with a warning that you shouldn’t trust anything just because you read it on the internet – including if you read it on Snopes.
I don’t think they have that warning anymore.
Snopes … “a fact checker”? Who’s checking Snopes?
“Wadda Maroon!”
By the same token, a spell of hot weather is not evidence for Global Warming. Agreed, Griff?
BTW, no one takes Snopes seriously.
Read the article again, shill. Snopes found no evidence to support the idea that there was a collapse of wind and solar, but neither did it find a single shred of evidence that any of the wind turbines or solar panels worked during that period. The article is full of words explaining that wind and solar could have worked maybe, and they are supposed to be able to work in those conditions without ever once offering proof that they did. The fact is that Snopes are lying by calling it ‘mostly false’ – just on the strength of the article it should have been ‘we don’t know’ or ‘ambiguous’ and on the strength of the evidence offered by the German energy sector (which Snopes conveniently ignored) it should have been ‘true’ or ‘mostly true’. And that last one is only offered to you as a fig-leaf.
And the last 2 super el ninos were weather events, as well. The 6-8 tenths of a degree in total temperature increase aren’t proof of AGW, either. They only proved that strong el ninos marginally raise the worldwide temperature.
And Snopes is a left-wing propaganda machine. They don’t decide the truth any more than Youtube or Facebook.
@Griff
“so called total wind and solar collapse”
I don’t think you understand how low unreliable energy generation gets sometimes, no greens do, at least not the ones I’ve encountered.
Look at the landscape of windmills (on and offshore) and solar, over a February week in Germany 2021.
Now do you understand why we call them unreliable? 🙁 (sad face might help I’m told)
This is German wind producing sweet FA
How’s that wind and solar going in the UK, griff-shill-moron !
Why do you continue to live your hole life as a TOTAL FAILURE ?
.
“It isn’t the start of the new ice age or even a halt to warming.”
How do you know? Where is your evidence or any supporting data
A supremely bold and confident statement, but I’m afraid it’s Ipse Dixit.
At most, argumentum ad ignoratium.
Poor griff.
PROVEN WRONG AGAIN.. or just LYING through his rear orifice. !
https://techstartups.com/2021/02/11/germanys-green-energy-failure-germany-turns-back-coal-natural-gas-millions-solar-panels-blanketed-snow-ice/
Please fix the minor typo in the subheading: its, not it’s.
That’s an error that appears here, there, and everywhere. It seems that no one cares. Perhaps WUWT could inspire others to correct this mistake.
Apostrophes’ were invented to be abused
I always thought an apostrophe was someone refusing to follow or recognise a religion. sarc
You sure? I thought they were apost-less.
Delightful! I hope the Germans push back against the Green blob.
Wishfull thinking 😀
Germans “pushing back”? You’re kidding, right? Those people are still electing Merkel.
Not sure if true in September…
According to CMIP 6 model projections, the global temp mean anomaly should be around 1.3C, but is currently at -0.01C (perhaps -0.2C by May) and will likely be -0.4C by this time next year if a double-dip La Niña occurs, which would be almost 6 standard deviations off from CMIP6 projections..
Even without a double-dip La Niña, global temp anomalies will consistently be well below two standard deviations CMIP 6 projections (+0.73C), and observed temp trends will be no where near the CMIP 6 model warming trend of 0.25C/decade (and projected to continuously increase)….
When the respective PDO and AMO cool cycles soon start, the CAGW scam will become even more of joke than it already is.
Yep. They’ll need to ‘adjust’ (lower) historical temperatures again so the models don’t look so broken.
Hi Sam,
My observation is that this catastrophic man-made global warming / green energy fraud was not just a scam by the warmist leadership for financial and political gain, it was also a deliberate program to cause the death of multitudes in the developed world through the destruction of vital energy systems – neo-Malthusians at play.
Best regards, Allan MacRae in Calgary
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/16/eia-u-s-co2-emissions-declined-11-in-2020-no-change-in-rising-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/#comment-3227850
Correct Joel, and highly alarming.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group can be this wrong for this long – the climate alarmist, anti-fossil-fuel leadership clearly knew from the outset decades ago that they were engaged in large-scale genocide.
I wrote this comment about energy reality many years ago :
Fossil fuels comprise fully 85% of global primary energy, unchanged in decades, and unlikely to change in future decades.
The remaining 15% of global primary energy is almost all hydro and nuclear.
Eliminate fossil fuels tomorrow and almost everyone in the developed world would be dead in about a month from starvation and exposure.
Best, Allan
Low temperatures in the stratosphere – polar vortex will be active through the end of April in central Europe.
This is favored by an increase in solar wind speed.
The next impact of a stratospheric intrusion in the northeastern US will be severe for residents.
A slight increase in latitudinal circulation due to an increase in solar wind speed could shift a powerful typhoon over the island of Luzon.
Cold but not unusual except lets hope it is not the beginning of an ice age.
Beginning? We’re already in an ice age and the present interglacial is already well into its dotage. Temperatures have been falling for roughly 8000 years.
It is not an ice age. This is simply a cold trend which should continue through the 2030s before the next warm trend will show up.
I see Denver is bracing for another big snow storm. I just looked out the window, it’s snowing in the Twin Cities.
16F low overnight.
Currently there is a slight increase in UV radiation but solar flares are still weak.
https://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/gomemgii.html
But…but…Germany is warming! We are all dying of Global Warming! Some needs to change the data and quick because it has to be Global Warming!
I just love it when reality crashes a liberal party.
Today : April 19, 22:25 local time. Thirty days in the month, it might be a bit early to call it a record cold month.
It has been cold in the UK this April also The central England temperature record was standing at an anomaly of -1.5 last time I looked.
well today in UK was again T shirt weather and time to weed the garden
And the 9th day in a row with very little wind power.
THANK GOODNESS FOR FOSSIL FUELS.. particularly GAS
Hi Vuk,
I appreciate your insights – thank you.
Last week it was the destruction of early crops (fruits including grapes – Save the Chateauneuf-du-Pape!) in France, now reports of unusual cold in Germany. Europe is freezing its grapes off.
Being fond of excellent European wines, and having friends across Europe, this cooling, which we correctly predicted in 2002, is still distressing to me.
It is not satisfying to be proved correct when everyone suffers – the norm during natural solar-driven global cooling periods. The polar vortex will go where it goes. Bundle up!
Best regards, Allan
Post Script:
Based on Nino34 temperatures, the cooling not over yet.
I wrote in August 2020:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/#comment-3068819
Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold.
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth
Nino34 SST anom’s hit minimums of minus1.4C-1.3C in Oct2020 and Nov2020 – so global coldest temperatures (+4 months) should be Feb2021 and Mar2021.* Spring could also be late in many parts of the world.
Update: Nino34 anomaly stayed below minus0.5C until 7March2021 – Plus 4 months is early April, May, June, July.
______________________________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/13/winter-is-not-going-away-without-a-fight/#comment-3225254
Told you so, two decades ago! Natural solar-driven global cooling to start circa 2020.
My paper published in March 2021:
“CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET”
https://electroverse.net/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset/
The most recent strong cooling event hit Europe last weekend, and wiped out much of the
French fruit (and grape) crop.
It saddens me to see severe cooling events happening all around the world, as we predicted
two decades ago in 2002 – it’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck that we tried to warn people about, and nobody would listen. I’ve always been a builder, and to watch the global warming climate fraudsters repeatedly delude idiot politicians and the public has been a depressing debacle.
Trillions of dollars of scarce global resources have been squandered on deliberate warmist frauds, as our society sleepwalked towards climate-and-green-energy disaster.
I have repeatedly stated that our idiot politicians have brewed the perfect storm, destabilizing the electrical grid with intermittent green energy nonsense at a time when we will need more abundant, reliable energy due to imminent global cooling.
We can hope that this cooling will be mild and short-lived, but I have no strong opinion, having not done the detailed work to try to quantify it. Some analysts are calling for a Grand Solar Minimum. Let’s hope it is no worse than the Dalton Minimum, and not like the Maunder.
Allan, your prediction was that cooling would have already begun by 2020. That year turned out to be the warmest or second warmest year on record, according to most global temperature data producers. GISS and NOAA suggest that March 2021 was inside the top ten warmest Marches since global surface records began in 1880. It looks like April will be up there too, despite Germany. There have been well documented natural cooling conditions for several months, thanks to the recent La Nina. You think your prediction of cooling has come true. I think you may be living in a state of self delusion.
Don’t be utterly ridiculous nailhead.
First, a prediction made in 2002 for two decades into the future is essentially perfect if it lands correctly within a year or so. This is especially true when it speaks against the huge mass of contrary opinion, whether warming alarmist or climate skeptic.
Next, planting was one month late across the Great Plains of North America in 2018 and 2019, and in 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Plains. Cooling had already started.
I have studied this subject for 36 years and have two engineering degrees. My bet, based on your comments, is you have not seriously studied this subject for 36 minutes. So much for your attempted slander, and your uninformed opinion.
The polar vortex goes where it goes, but our prediction of cooling by ~2020 was spot on. Cooling is particularly apparent worldwide in Winter 2020-2021.
Bundle up – it’s not over yet.
Refuting nailhead’s nonsense:
Global Lower Tropospheric Temperatures have declined 0.6C in 13 months, from an anomaly of +0.59C in February 2020 to only -0.01C in March 2021.
Allan,
Your post got me thinking about the almost daily propaganda that we are on track for 2C warming by 2050, or 4C warming by 2100.
Not only is the UAH Satellite-based Temperature data casting this into extreme doubt but if you look at GISTemp you will see the effect of La Niña from January 2016 to January 2018 (following the El Niño surge in 2015/2016).
There was a decline of 0.56C in that period in GISTemp which is the largest decline since 1982/83.
Two years of “global cooling”!
Further, go to woodfortrees.org and click on “Notes”.
There we learn that in comparing temperature anomalies of GISTemp,HADCRU4,RSS and UAH,“you can see the current trends in degrees C,between 0.13 and 0.17C/decade,or if it continues at the same rate,between 1.3 and 1.7C per century”.
The critical question is “if it continues at the same rate”.
So,unless you believe that global temperatures are going to take off like Usain Bolt,(and the present anomalies do not give any indication of this),we are looking at benign warming (max1.7C for the Century) on any view of the matter.
Am I missing something?
Hi Herbert,
RE your question: “Am I missing something?”
No you are not – without getting into the details of the numbers, global warming alarmism has always been a false crisis – and I say a deliberately fraudulent one.
Why is it a deliberate fraud? Because no rational scientist or group could be this wrong, this utterly obtuse to the facts, for this long. It is fraud.
The alleged warming crisis was fabricated using computer climate models that were designed to create false alarm – the ASSUMED (and false) model input parameters dictated the scary warming result, and ~all these models have grossly over-predicted warming in the decades they have been in existence.
The climate models don’t accurately forecast the future; and unless they are deliberately biased with false aerosol inputs, they don’t even accurately forecast the past! It’s a con – a shell game.
Background Information
My friends Dick Lindzen and Will Happer are two of the most accomplished scientists on the planet, and two of the most intelligent men.
CLIMATE ‘EMERGENCY’? NOT SO FAST
By Richard Lindzen & William Happer, April 16, 2021
https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/04/climate-emergency-not-so-fast/
[excerpt]
We are both scientists who can attest that the research literature does not support the claim of a climate emergency. Nor will there be one. None of the lurid predictions — dangerously accelerating sea-level rise, increasingly extreme weather, more deadly forest fires, unprecedented warming, etc. — are any more accurate than the fire-and-brimstone sermons used to stoke fanaticism in medieval crusaders.
_____________________________
Will Happer’s recent lecture is also worthwhile:
HOW TO THINK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE | William Happer Feb 24, 2021
_____________________________
My Fair Warning Notice to Warmist Trolls:
Don’t bother arguing with Lindzen or Happer – they are infinitely more intelligent and better educated than you – you will only harm yourselves.
Allan,
Thanks. I had read the National Review article and will now watch the Will Happer presentation.
But Allan, Rusty nail spends his time hitting his fingers and toes.
He have proven that he is an ignorant twit , as well as being a wack-a-mole AGW shill masochist..
ROFLMAO.
The much MAL-ADJUSTED FANTASY data set that bears basically ZERO resemblance to actual reality.
UAH shows March 2021 in 18th place in the last 43 years
Then there are all the high temperatures from the 1930,40s, since mal-adjusted, to consider.
Poor bent and rusty, his DELUSIONAL state of brain-washed gullibility and ignorance yet again highlighted for everyone to see.
Grapes? What about the hops? Beer counts for something, too, y’know!!!
Hi Sara,
Beer and wine are proof that God loves humanity!
We can only pray for salvation – in the dark times of the very cold Maunder Minimum, up to one hundred thousand “witches” were burned a the stake for allegedly causing global cooling. Warmist fraudsters take note.
After particularly hard weeks of arduous, sometimes dangerous overseas travel, my consolation was to drop by the James Joyce for a Guinness.
“My Guinness, my Goodness, my God! Peace at last! Peace at last! Peace at Last!”
It is my fervent hope and prayer that Dublin is spared this cold weather.
Arthur Guinness, St. James’s Gate, Dublin, Ireland, established 1759.
And six thumbs up to you, Allan! (I have two and my cat has four.)
Truth is, Sara, I have a dark side.
For example, I called down some very cold weather on the eastern half of our continent in recent winters–see below. My bad!
Actually, I don’t really control the weather; I just hang out with some very competent weather forecasters, climatologists, physicists, and other scientists – those with excellent predictive track records – the true measure of scientific and technical competence.
Why does anyone listen to the global warming fraudsters? At last count, the warmists had made ~80 very-scary failed predictions – and not one of them has actually happened! Nobody should believe these climate shills – about anything!
In 2002, I (we) predicted the global cooling to start by ~2020, and that was an expression of goodwill – a warning to not compromise (aka sabotage) our energy systems with grid-connected wind and solar power generation, which would wreak havoc upon the public – as has now happened in Texas, California, Germany, Britain, and elsewhere in North America and Western Europe.
We also did some good works – see Winter 2014-15, below.
Cheap, reliable, abundant energy is essential for the survival of modern society – and our idiot politicians and much of the public cannot seem to understand that most basic concept.
Stay safe and warm!
Best, Allan
THE DARK SIDE – WINTER 2018-19
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521702
Fair warning: I’m calling down another very hard winter on the US Northeast, extending up into Canada.
The reason I’m doing this is that you deserve it. You continue to bleat about global warming, in a world that is about to get colder.
You continue to blather on about climate change and the need to eliminate fossil fuels – do that tomorrow and most of you will be dead within a month or two.
Fully 85% of global primary energy is fossil fuels and that number has not changed significantly in decades. Fossil fuel energy provides almost everything you need to survive in this complex world. It IS that simple!
So enjoy the bitter cold and snow this winter, good people, and maybe you will actually learn something.
Cold kills far more people then heat in the world today, probably about 2 million Excess Winter Deaths per year.
Bundle up!
THE DARK SIDE – WINTER 2015-16
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/22/friday-funny-probable-cause/#comment-1696813
OK – enough!
I’ve had it with you Eastern warmists.
So in February, I’m calling down some brutally frigid winter weather on you.
Mark your calendars and get out your long woollies…
THE REAL STORY – WINTER 2014-15
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521694
Prior to the record snowfall in the winter of 2014–15, Joe D’Aleo and I sent a written warning to my friend at the EIA, stating that the NWS weather forecast that EIA used was extremely in error, and warning of a very cold and snowy winter to come, especially for the Northeast Coast.
The EIA reran their lower 48 USA energy demand for that winter using Joe’s forecast and calculated an additional 11% total energy required for the winter months. The actual energy consumption were one percent lower than Joe’s forecast and 10% higher in the NWS forecast. That is a huge amount of energy.
I do not know what contingency the EIA uses, so I don’t know if we saved any lives. Nevertheless, I believe we did a good deed and we may have indeed significantly reduced human suffering.
In summary, if you want an accurate weather forecast, go to WeatherBell, not NWS.
Serves ’em right to suffer.
Video from Germany – 13 April – das effing frostig kalt!
WettervideosDienstag, 13.04.2021
Nächte weiterhin frostig kalt
https://www.wetteronline.de/wetter-videos/2021-04-13-mk?cat=30
April 19 is not a good day to call the “coldest April”. True, it is “the coldest April so far”, but the coldest first half of April would have been better.
Who said anything about “coldest April” evah?
Not me. And it ain’t over yet!
Für die Natur problematisch – Im April sind die derzeit frostigen Nächte ein Problem für die Natur. Die befindet sich bereits im Frühling und zahlreiche Bäume blühen bereits oder tragen kleine Früchte. Viele Bauern müssen daher mit großem Aufwand ihre Obstbäume vor der Kälte schützen. Auch die kommenden Nächte werden wieder frostig kalt.
Problematic for nature – In April the currently frosty nights are a problem for nature. It is already in spring and numerous trees are already blooming or bearing small fruits. Many farmers therefore have to go to great lengths to protect their fruit trees from the cold. The coming nights will also be freezing cold again.
There will be lower yields in orchards and vineyards.
Frosts will occur for several nights.
OMG!!! Save the Rhine wines!
Just as I (we) predicted in 2002 – global cooling at the Solar Minimum – another disproof of the (failed) catastrophic human-made global warming hypothesis.
Fossil fuels are not the culprit, and neither is CO2. The only thing CO2 (aka “carbon”, to climate imbeciles) drives is the bubbles in your beer.
Deliberate leftist global warming fraud, by the usual WMO suspects. Wolves stampeding the sheep.
ENGLAND’S COLDEST APRIL SINCE 1922, GERMANY’S CHILLIEST SINCE 1917
April 20, 2021 Cap Allon
It may be late-April, but spring 2021 is a no show across much of Europe.
The continent is suffering a climatic reality similar to that of the previous prolonged spell of reduced solar output: not since the Centennial Minimum (1880-1920) have Europeans suffered an April this cold and snowy.
Here we have the ultimate rebuttal to the global warming scam. It is currently colder than usual in Germany and a couple of other places.
Surely this is ‘The Final Nail’? About time too!
“Here we have the ultimate PROOF to the global warming scam. It is currently WARMER than usual in AUSTRALIA and a couple of other places.”
Fixed it for ya.
Thanks for fixing that, Mr. Just shows that cherry picking time periods and locations is, well, cherry picking.
According to METAR, temperature.global the earth has been cooling for 5 years compared to the 30 year average. Airline pilots and ship captains rely on METAR unadjusted data for safe travel and don’t expect METAR to adjust the data as NOAA and GISS have. I can hear NOAA/GISS saying, “Have an nice trip, we changed the weather data/conditions for you!”
Your utter and complete demented desperation is showing through, yet again, bent and rusty !
Hey, bent and rusty, did you ever find any empirical evidence of warming by human released atmospheric CO2
Or are you still playing tiddly-winks with the fairies at the bottom of your mental trash heap.
Well looking at the records, it ain’t gonna get warmer for a while..
Went back thru all the months back to 1981 on the weatherbell.com site. For the ENTIRE month, there are several that were colder. Given the warming this week it is likely when the month is done it will be about 5th since 1981. In addition, most of the months in question had a widespread cold. Europes April’s 1980-1997 were much colder overall than this century. Here is the link. https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/analysis/cdas-all?d=europe_wide&p=tmp2m_anom_mtd_back_c. you can go look for yourself
Neighbor Netherlands is not any different. It has seen a record number of April nights with temperatures before freezing. It has also recorded one of the coldest April temperature readings. However warmer weather (20C) is expected for the end of the month.
Then again…. there is an old Dutch proverb: April does what it wants. Back in the old days, the Dutch already knew that their April weather was not stable and highly changeable.
global warming not only makes it really hot, but really cold too… really wet but also really dry… really snowy but also snowless… really sunny but also really cloudy… it’s
amazing…. what can’t global warming do???
From the article: “April across much of Europe has been unusually cold, frosty and even snowy, and the media have been awfully quiet about it.”
Censorship by omission.
Where’s that Climate Emergency at? Doesn’t it require hot temperatures in order to be a Climate Emergency?
I think that’s probably why the Leftwing Media is being silent. Freezing weather hurts their Human-caused Climate Change narrative. The weather is not cooperating with the Alarmist “hotter and hotter” meme.
Around my neck of the woods, the last frost date is usually around April 1. Today is April 19, and there’s a good chance we will have a freeze tomorrow night. It’s a little chilly around here. The Weatherman said we haven’t had a situation like this around here since about 1909.
It was plus20C in Calgary on Saturday and everyone was out on the patios enjoying drinks. The restaurants are in Covid-19 lockdown again but the powers-that-be have deigned that the plebs can drink and eat outdoors. Saturday was warm and sunny, party day for shut-ins.
Dropped to lid on the convertible and cruised the strip. American Graffiti – Where were you in 62? But it was not to last…
Sunday the temperature dropped to minus2C with snow mid-day and the patios were empty. The good news – your beer stayed really cold; the bad news – so did you.
Some people say this cooling is caused by CO2 and global warming. Avoid such people – they are not just really stupid – people that incredibly dumb are dysfunctional and can be quite dangerous – there’s no telling what insane thoughts rattle about inside their empty heads, and when one will suddenly pop out. When confronted with such dangerous warmist fanatics, do not argue; instead, make eye contact, smile, speak softly and gently and back away s-l-o-w-l-y.
“Some people say this cooling is caused by CO2 and global warming. Avoid such people”
Good advice! 🙂
what was germany’s wind generation like?
How the solar wind affects the circulation?
Currently, the solar wind speed has increased to about 600 km/s. You can see, stronger pressure of the jet current over Japan towards the east. This will direct the typhoon in the Philippine Sea towards the island of Luzon.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=wpac×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
The solar wind pulse is also seen in the current SOI spike.
There is currently an increase in solar activity. This can be seen in the increase in solar wind speed, but also two active sunspots have appeared that can produce M-class flares. Today such a flare occurred from sunspot 12817.
ren, here comes the late freeze you showed a couple of weeks ago.
I held off planting the tender plants because of your charts. Now, I don’t have to run out and cover everything up. 🙂
A cold front will hit the northeastern US.
Nevertheless 2021 is on course to be the hottest year evah!
The Antarctic data make no sense to me. The continent is shown as warmer than usual, but most of the ocean surrounding it is colder. Yet the only way heat is transfered is by wind which over cold water is also cold. So where did the heat on the continent come from?
Suggestion. The map is based on very few measurements near human settlements. Or homogenised with a faulty reading included.
and the ongoing multiple volcanos emissions wont be making anything warmer either
Not just Germany. The UK as well. Not to mention France, where the grape season has been affected.
Trees in the UK which normally come into blossom at the start of April are in many cases still not out. And April has been an unusually cold month. Not that the Guardian has deigned to notice it. Though every time there is an unusually warm month they have front page notices and dire predictions that this is just the start, that we are seeing yet another example of the unfolding climate catastrophe due to what they call ‘global heating’.
“And April has been an unusually cold month. Not that the Guardian has deigned to notice it. Though every time there is an unusually warm month they have front page notices and dire predictions that this is just the start,”
They keep telling us it’s the “hottest month evah!” The Data Manipulating alarmists are reduced to using this trick because the temperatures keep getting cooler and not even NASA and NOAA are bold enough to turn a 0.7C cooling period, like we have had, into the “hottest year evah!”.
It’s pure distortion and propaganda coming out of NASA Climate and NOAA when it comes to Human-caused Climate Change. They have their dishonest thumbs on the scale and want all of us to be very scared. Not me. I can read a regional surface temperature chart. That calms me right down because the regional charts show we have nothing to worry about from CO2 and show CO2 is not the control knob of the Earth’s atmospheric temperatures. CO2 is up, Temperatures are down. Just the opposite of what the alarmists claim about CO2.
Just like the Democrats, if the Alarmists didn’t have the Leftwing Media Propaganda Organs on their side, they wouldn’t have anything at all. As it is, they have all the societal influence one could want but even so, climate change as a priority is at the bottom of all the polls.
The bees in australia (cant be manipulated by bs climate pr) told us we had colder weather in late spring and early summer
They eat the honey they had produced in August to stay alive during september october etc and again in early summer
honey output was down more than half
Impacts of cold events on agriculture, horticulture and apiculture will be claimed as impacts of warming. Give them a few days …
i was reading the transcript of mark steyn’s deposition in his everlasting suit with michael mann of hockey stick fame. in it he quotes an expert who says there are 30 year cycles of cold and hot. we are in the thirty year cold cycle which is borne out by these temperature stats.
The sky is warming. The sky is warming. These Chicken Littles make about as much sense as the premise for their role model.
Charles Rotter
Our coldest TMIN during April 2021, measured at home (30 km south of Berlin, Germany), was -3 °C, on April 4’s night.
We have a relatively cold spring, with strong winds coming from the Northwestern Atlantic.
And we never experienced such a heavy sequence of low pressure areas.
If you want to see really cold April temperatures for Germany, the best is to look at the top10 of an ascending sort of the list of all absolute TMIN temperatures for the country:
GME00131914 1986 4 13 -16.0 (°C)
GMM00010146 1996 4 12 -16.0
GME00121198 2003 4 7 -15.9
GME00121702 1956 4 8 -15.4
GME00123418 1986 4 13 -15.3
GME00128350 1986 4 13 -15.1
GME00128674 1952 4 3 -15.1
GME00128782 1956 4 8 -15.1
GMM00010146 1996 4 3 -15.0
GME00129946 1952 4 3 -14.8
{ The station GM000004155 (“Zugspitze”, in the German Alps) has been excluded because it is located near 3000 m altitude. }
This info by (No???)TricksZone is totally exaggerated.
Warmistas aren’t good for us; but Coolistas are even worse.
Best regards from Germoney
J.-P. D.
Another view at the 10 coldest April days, this time reported by the German weather station Berlin-Tegel (1936-2021):
GME00121150 2003 4 9 -6.8
GME00121150 1996 4 1 -6.7
GME00121150 1940 4 13 -6.1
GME00121150 1986 4 13 -6.1
GME00121150 2013 4 2 -5.8
GME00121150 1996 4 2 -5.4
GME00121150 2013 4 7 -5.4
GME00121150 1941 4 10 -5.0
GME00121150 2003 4 11 -4.7
GME00121150 1986 4 12 -4.5
(2021 isn’t in the list, no negative TMIN were reported by this station in April this year. Sure due to UuuuHI !)
J.-P. D.
With the growing popularity of online gambling we need to open a sweepstake.
Where and when will the first wind turbine or solar farm be taken down by advancing glaciers?