Winter is not going away without a fight

Paul Dorian

Not only is a chilly air mass coming to much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation this week, it appears as though multiple cold air outbreaks will reach the central and eastern US from Canada right through the remainder of the month of April. Maps courtesy NOAA,


Just when most people desire the sustained warmth that spring can offer this time of year, the unfolding weather pattern says not quite yet – at least not for much of the central and eastern US.  Not only is a chilly air mass coming for later this week, it appears there may be multiple cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US as we progress through the remainder of the month of April.  In addition to the chill, a late week nor’easter can bring accumulating snow to interior, higher elevations of the Northeast US as winter is simply not going away without a fight.

Not exactly a “warm” look to the 12Z NAM forecast map for Friday morning with snow (shown in blue) across much of the interior Northeast US. Map courtesy NOAA,


The teleconnection index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) fell into negative territory last week and it has been sustained in that zone for several days now. This index is correlated with the temperature and pressure patterns of the North Atlantic and when it is sustained in negative territory this time of year, the Northeast US usually suffers with some early spring chill.  Indeed, a strong blocking pattern has formed in the upper part of the atmosphere across northeastern Canada and Greenland and this is usually part of the overall pattern that brings cold air masses in the central and eastern states from central Canada.

Deep upper-level low pressure will spin its way from the Great Lakes to the Northeast US by Friday, April 16th and will play a major role in the formation of a nor’easter later in the week. Map courtesy NOAA,

This latest shot of chilly air originated in Alaska where many spots experienced some of their lowest temperatures ever for the month of April.  This air mass has made its way south and east in a modified form – thanks to the overall upper air pattern over North America – and it will chill down the central and eastern US in coming days.  To make matters worse, it looks like this next shot of chilly air will be followed by multiple other cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern states as we progress through the remainder of April.

Not only will there be some unusual accumulating snow in the interior Northeast US in coming days, the Rocky Mountain States are likely to receive some significant snowfall as well. Map courtesy NOAA,

In addition to the chill, there is the threat for some springtime accumulating snow later this week across interior, higher elevation locations of the Northeast US.  As a deep upper-level low slowly spins its way into the Northeast US, low pressure will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and then intensify as it slowly pushes to the northeast later in the week.  With the colder air moving into place, accumulating snow is looking quite likely across interior, higher elevation sections of the Northeast US – perhaps all the way from the Catskills in southeastern New York State to the Green and White Mountains of northern New England. Given the strong blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, this nor’easter is likely to only creep along the New England coastline later in the week – prolonging the misery for New Englanders right through the day on Friday. 

One final note, one benefit of a colder-than-normal weather pattern across the central and eastern US in coming weeks is that the chances of severe weather in the Plains and southern US will quite likely be reduced significantly.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

Perspecta, Inc.

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John Pickens
April 13, 2021 10:14 pm

This is why they abandoned the term “global warming”.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  John Pickens
April 13, 2021 10:51 pm


(Lone Ranger and Tonto surrounded by 100 angry Apaches on the war path.)

Lone ranger: “Tonto, it appears they want our scalps.”
Tonto: “Who is ‘they’ Pale-face?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 14, 2021 4:18 am

I heard it slightly different:
Lone Range: “Tonto, it looks like we are surrounded.”
Tonto: “What you mean “we” white man?”

Bill Powers
Reply to  Tom in Florida
April 14, 2021 6:47 am


LR: “Well Tonto It looks like we have had it now. We had a good run but it looks like we have reached the end of our Trail.”

T: “Get off this WE sh!t White man.”

Reply to  John Pickens
April 14, 2021 12:36 am

Told you so, two decades ago! Natural solar-driven global cooling to start circa 2020.

My paper published in March 2021:

The most recent strong cooling event hit Europe last weekend, and wiped out much of the French fruit (and grape) crop.

It saddens me to see severe cooling events happening all around the world, as we predicted two decades ago in 2002 – it’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck that we tried to warn people about, and nobody would listen. I’ve always been a builder, and to watch the global warming climate fraudsters repeatedly delude idiot politicians and the public has been a depressing debacle.

Trillions of dollars of scarce global resources have been squandered on deliberate warmist frauds, as our society sleepwalked towards climate-and-green-energy disaster.

I have repeatedly stated that our idiot politicians have brewed the perfect storm, destabilizing the electrical grid with intermittent green energy nonsense at a time when we will need more abundant, reliable energy due to imminent global cooling.

We can hope that this cooling will be mild and short-lived, but I have no strong opinion, having not done the detailed work to try to quantify it. Some analysts are calling for a Grand Solar Minimum. Let’s hope it is no worse than the Dalton Minimum, and not like the Maunder.

April 14, 2021 2:40 am

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? (around 1998/1999)

Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

Papers by T. Landscheidt

Last edited 1 year ago by Krishna Gans
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 6:48 am

Above published 1May2003.

Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.

April 14, 2021 7:19 am
Joe B
April 14, 2021 12:38 pm

Yes, exactly.
Dr. Valentina Zharakova used advanced statistical analysis and concluded that the sun contains multiple internal dynamos, that they move in determined pathways, that these pathways effect observable sunspots, and that the changes in solar radiation have predictable effects upon the earth’s climate.
Her model has a 97% correlative accuracy rate going back over 400 years of recorded sunspot activity.
Her prediction of Cycle 24’s characteristics was one of two- out of 150 presented – that was accurate.

The coming trough years will be 2028 through 2032, with the cooler, after weather lasting until ~2045.
Humans will be fine.
Crop production, not so much.

April 14, 2021 4:27 pm

NO suprises then about the choice of 2030 by IPCC et al. If it cools they could claim they fixed it!

April 16, 2021 4:40 am

For the record:

I published this open letter in 2013 to Baroness Verma, after Britain invested in too much wind power, but before Texans “blew their brains out”. SSDD.

Baroness Verma was Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change from 2012 to 2015.

So here is my real concern:

You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.

I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.

I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.

I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.

I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.

As always in these matters, I hope to be wrong. These are not numbers, they are real people, who “loved and were loved”.

Best regards to all, Allan MacRae

Turning and tuning in the widening gyre,
the falcon cannot hear the falconer…
– Yeats

April 16, 2021 4:49 am

Emailed to a friend this morning:

The typical green politician is a woke imbecile, easily distracted by shiny objects.

I have published the following statement many times over the years:

Here is a subtle hint I wrote years ago about energy reality:

Fossil fuels comprise fully 85% of global primary energy, unchanged in decades, and unlikely to change in future decades.

The remaining 15% of global primary energy is almost all hydro and nuclear.

Eliminate fossil fuels tomorrow and almost everyone in the developed world would be dead in about a month from starvation and exposure.

Best, Allan

Reply to  John Pickens
April 14, 2021 5:27 am

But Obama’s climate genius, John Holdren, said global warming brings global cooling. I wish they’d make up their minds …

Reply to  John Shewchuk
April 14, 2021 6:50 am

A non-falsifiable hypothesis = typical non-scientific warmist nonsense.
“warm is cold, wet is dry, up is down, etc.

April 16, 2021 11:56 pm

Great flying spaghetti monster. Same crap, different pile. Both as valid.

Gunga Din
Reply to  John Shewchuk
April 14, 2021 2:41 pm

They know there’s no “CAGW”. But Man’s harmless CO2 has been a useful lever to promote such political BS as The Green New Deal”.
They already have their minds made up to make up the public’s minds with deceptions.

Joel O'Bryan
April 13, 2021 10:48 pm

Climate change is not going either until supposed scientists stop drinking the Liberal koolaide and return to the scientific method.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 14, 2021 5:05 am

What are the chances of that? Let me give a couple of current examples which do not convey hope.

Apparently, on one hand, Asian bigotry is growing and has never been worse, so say the universities. On the other hand, universities are doing away with entrance exams and use of grades for determining admittance qualifications. Apparently, university administrators cannot connect how their own actions will hurt Asians, and how their actions will directly impact the quality of their students.

Delta Airlines is against the requirement that voters use identification to prove that they are who they say they are. Apparently, it’s fine that identification is required for passing through airport security or for retrieval of one’s luggage, however.

Logic apparently no longer needs to apply to anything. Some are saying that mathematics is racist, as is requiring the correct answer on test problems. “Correct” has lost meaning.

The scientific method must be racist too one might surmise, since some people might feel this is the case. In fact, aren’t we seeing that scientific conclusions have to be woke too or at least be driven by consensus?

Last edited 1 year ago by Scissor
Joe B
Reply to  Scissor
April 14, 2021 12:52 pm

Yuri Bezmenov desctibed the exact method that has brought about this untethering of rationality from social discourse … he described who was implementing this operation of psychological neutering … and he described why it was being done.

It has been 40 years now since his warnings, and 65 years since the operation (non kinetic war) was launched.
The successful outcomes can readily be seen everyday as you have just pointed out.

Reply to  Scissor
April 16, 2021 11:58 pm

Too much money in climate change. 1998 Entomological Society of America annual meeting = zero climate change talks. 2019 ESA annual meeting, 40% climate change talks. If you’re getting money to drive your programs, you aren’t biting the hand that feeds you. It’s not exclusive to entomology. It’s pervasive.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 14, 2021 11:17 am

…or until the government stops paying scientists to manufacture evidence for it.

Gerard O'Dowd
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 15, 2021 11:25 am

What exactly is meant by the phrase “the scientific method”?

Is it a bunch of scientists who practice the methods aligned with a given paradigm they learned as graduate students afraid to deviate from accepted norms to suit the biases of Journal Editors to get papers published or is it something more fundamental that questions the scientific consensus both by experimental and theoretical means?

April 13, 2021 10:55 pm

Same in Europe with France declaring an agricultural emergency due to repeated late frosts.
Typical of the LIA quiet sun scenario.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 14, 2021 12:02 am

These frosts reminds me of the UK in the 70’s. It was fudging cold!

Reply to  Patrick MJD
April 14, 2021 12:19 am

I remember those frosts well. It was the beginning of our “new ice age” As a young man I was in the navy off Iceland when UK was having a bit of a tiff with them over fishing rights. As you say it was Fudging cold.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Mariner
April 14, 2021 12:53 am

Froze my arse off in England in summers ’85 and ’86 I did. Then got to Tucson Arizona in ’87 and thought I’d found heaven, pools, women in bikinis, everyone wearing shorts.
It’s no wonder the Brits and Scots left the Isles in the 19th Century to find warming climates, and the English language is now the world lingua franca. Cold sucks.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 14, 2021 8:03 am

The Irish left the Isles in the 19th century as well.
But not by choice 😕

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 14, 2021 10:50 am

But those who came to New England found the weather even worse- hotter summers and colder winters.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
April 14, 2021 12:28 pm

The French valued a few islands in the Caribbean growing sugar cane than all of their holdings in canada, a lot of that having to do with weather

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
April 14, 2021 12:54 pm

In Canada, they had to do the work- in the Caribbean they had “people of color” to do it for them. Nice climate and slaves.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 14, 2021 12:33 am

Landscheidt told us about much more than a decade ago.
That’s why it was proposed to name the the just starting minimum “Landscheidt Minimum”.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 1:39 am

This global cooling is primarily solar-induced, driven by the end of very-weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) and the beginning of very-weak SC25, as I (we) published in 2002 – one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s famous 2003 global cooling prediction.

Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.

An online petition was started to name the next solar minimum the Eddy Minimum, as suggested by Leif Svalgaard.

I cannot recall if I signed the Eddy petition, but Jack Eddy AND Theodor Landscheidt are both highly worthy of recognition.

Landscheidt made a clear call for “a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030″.

I have not been able to find exactly what Eddy’s prediction was, if he published one. Perhaps others want to comment further on Eddy’s very significant accomplishments – he was a great scientist.

April 14, 2021 4:24 am

A must read
comment image

April 14, 2021 5:36 am

Landscheidt Minimum Petition
In 1989,Landscheidt forecast a period of sunspot minima after 1990, accompanied by increased cold, with a stronger minimum and more intense cold which should peak in 2030 [1], which he described as the “Landscheidt Minimum”

Last edited 1 year ago by Krishna Gans
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 6:36 am

Thank you Krishna,
I will look up this earlier Landscheidt paper. He could have been referring to some cooling that occurred at the end of an earlier, more robust solar cycle – not sure. Global temperatures at that time were definitely cooled by the eruption of Pinatubo (1991+), which took years to dissipate.
It appears that he re-issued the same prediction in 2003, this time targeting the end of the Gleissberg Cycle, SC24&25.

April 14, 2021 6:49 am

Abstract. Running variance analysis and maximum entropy spectral analysis applied to Mount Wilson rotation data yield arguments in favor of a connection between variations in the Sun’s rotation rate, energetic X-ray flares, and impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun’s irregular motion about the barycenter of the planetary system. Such IOT, that have been shown to be related to the secular cycle of solar activity and excursions of the Maunder minimum type, also seem to be linked to outstanding peaks in geomagnetic activity, maxima in ozone concentration, incidence of blocking type circulation, as well as rainfall over Central Europe, England/Wales, eastern United States, and India. Statistical tests, that confirm these links, additionally point to IOT connection with temperature in Central Europe and the number of icebergs that pass south of latitude 48° N. IOT relationship with X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms was tested in successful long range forecasts.
Most past efforts concerning Sun-weather connections have looked for direct relations to visible solar activity, especially sunspots. Literature is replete with statistical results, but most scientists hold that the case is still unresolved. According to Eddy (1977, 1979, 1982) it is possible that solar connections have been sought in the wrong places or with the wrong index of solar activity. Observations of the Sun by means of satellite instrumentation have revealed strong fluctuations in the unseen ultraviolet and X-ray portions of the Sun’s electromagnetic spectrum that show no distinct correlation with short range variations in sunspots. Thus they could have been missed in earlier searches for solar-terrestrial effects based on optical observations.


Last edited 1 year ago by Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 6:22 am

His most famous prediction was for a solar grand minimum between 1990 and 2070 which would peak at 2030 in his book Sun-Earth-Man (1989). Landscheidt used one single dataset to produce this forecast which follows the solar torque readings that result from the changing solar orbit shape directly influenced by the planet positions.

Landscheidt Cycles Research

April 14, 2021 12:27 pm

This global cooling is primarily solar-induced, driven by the end of very-weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) and the beginning of very-weak SC25, as I (we) published in 2002 – one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s famous 2003 global cooling prediction.

As told, Landscheidts prediction is from 1989, over a decade earlier than yours, but fine you came to a comparable conclusion.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 7:25 pm

Thank you Krishna.
Don’t think I heard of Theodor Landscheidt until after 2002. My 2002 estimate came from Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist at Carleton University, and he based it on the Gleissberg Cycle.I refined it slightly circa 2013 based on cooling from 2008 forward.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 14, 2021 1:02 am

We have the same in the UK with frosts every night. The greenhouse is full to bursting with tender and half-hardy plants waiting to be planted out.
There is also has been a high pressure system over the UK with next to no wind for the past five days and electricity from wind at under 2 percent of demand, and little likelihood of any improvement for quite a while. (So the battery is flat. /s)
It looks as if Boris’s Saudi Arabia of wind has a few problems to sort out.

Climate believer
Reply to  StephenP
April 14, 2021 1:11 am

Yes, a very tricky start to the gardening year.

Reply to  Climate believer
April 14, 2021 5:10 am

Skiing is still good here in Colorado because the cold fronts are bringing in lots of snow. My local ski area is closing this Sunday and I will make a couple of visits in the next few days to get in those last few turns.

Last edited 1 year ago by Scissor
Julian Flood
Reply to  StephenP
April 14, 2021 2:56 am

Glad to see someone else used Gridwatch Templar. Yesterday UK wind (rated at 24GW) was producing 0.2GW.

Big blocking High over all of Europe, Lights being kept on by Norwegian hydro, French nukes and Russian gas.

We can’t go o like this.


Tom Abbott
Reply to  Julian Flood
April 14, 2021 7:11 am

“Glad to see someone else used Gridwatch Templar. Yesterday UK wind (rated at 24GW) was producing 0.2GW.”

It’s good that everything in the UK isn’t running on windmills. The UK would be in big trouble right now. This is the kind of scenario the UK politicians are working to bring to reality. They apparently don’t have a clue, or they are in it for the money and power, or both.

Unbelievable, especially when they have proof right before their eyes that all their windmills can go down at once, and stay down, and they better have something to back that up, or the UK is going to have a disaster worse than the one that took place in Texas.

Speaking of the extreme cold front that came through the U.S., shutting all the windmills down in Texas and the Southwest Power Pool, someone in Oklahoma owes electrical producers between three and four billion dollars for supplying electricity during the rolling blackouts.

The Oklahoma legislature hasn’t decided how to get this bill paid yet, but that’s the cost to the State of Oklahoma for the cold weather front, and, imo, too much dependence on windmills for baseline power.

So far, my electric bill is about normal for this time of year, and I think the Oklahoma legislature will figure out a way to pay this bill without making it hard on the average Oklahoma citizen.

It’s costly when windmills don’t work. Oklahoma didn’t have the problem that Texas had with conventional power sources also experiencing problems at the same time, so most of our lack of electricity can be laid at the feet of the windmills, and that applies to the entire Southwest Power Pool, and was the cause of their rolling blackouts.

We’re just about at Peak Wind on many of our electrical grids. Going too much farther down that road without providing adeqate conventional backup is pure insanity.

And it’s pure insanity to build windmills and then have to bulld backup plants when the windmills don’t work. This scheme just doubles the amount of electrical generation required and adds significantly to the costs the average person pays for electricty. The sane approach is to build the converntional power plants and forget about the windmills.

Joe B
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 14, 2021 1:23 pm

20 per cent is the critical threshold for wind power-produced electricity when it becomes a part of the grid supply.
That number was arrived by Peak Oil icon Gail Tverberg.
Her works are available online.

Long before that 20% is reached, however, significant economic harm (unprofitability) occurs amongst the legacy power providers and they go out of business.
Thus the electricity supplies tighten.
Australia, the UK, California – even Texas – are seeing curtailment to coal AND older gas plants due to the favored (aka subsidized) wind/solar providers.
NB … these subsidies can be operational as well as directly financial, such as not needing to bid into the power pool.
They get first dibs 24/7, which displaces hydrocarbon competitors.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joe B
April 15, 2021 7:35 am

A very good description of events, Joe.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 15, 2021 7:41 am

I just read in my local newspaper this morning that the estimated cost of supplying Oklahomans with electricity during the February electrical shortage now stands at $4.5 billion. That’s about a weeks worth of electricity. If I remember correctly, the total cost of electricity for Oklahomans for the year 2020 was about $800 million. Quite a difference.

As you can see, the breakdown of Oklahoma windmills for a week or less will cost us dearly.

The Oklahoma legislature is going to spread out the payments over a large number of years to reduce the costs to Oklahoma consumers, but the amount of increase to our individual electric bills is still unknown at this time.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 16, 2021 5:52 am

I have to make a correction. It appears natural gas shortages also caused problems in Oklahoma, according to a news article today, although no details were given as to what caused the natural gas shortage, or the extent of the shortage.

One estimate is Oklahoma electricity customers will pay about $50 extra on their bill for the next ten years to pay off the $4.5 billion debt. That’s not set in stone yet, the legislature is still trying to figure out the best way to go.

Peta of Newark
Reply to  StephenP
April 14, 2021 4:22 am

Boris only has One Problem.
It answers to ‘Carrie’

Strangely enough, = the same problem as we all have here in the UK

My anecdote: from the nearby Wunderground station. It’s ‘neat’ and why I’m recounting it..

For the week ending April 11 2021,

  • Average temp was 4.7 Celsius
  • Highest for the week 13.8C

For the week ending April 11 2020

  • Average temp was 13.6 Celsius
  • Highest for the week 26.2 Celsius

This year’s peak (one reading only) was the same as last year’s average of over 2,000 readings

Reply to  Peta of Newark
April 14, 2021 5:27 am

In comparison, a 0.8C increase over 100 years doesn’t seem like much, does it?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  StephenP
April 14, 2021 6:54 am

“Boris’s Saudi Arabia of wind”

That’s funny! Delusional. But funny.

Reply to  StephenP
April 14, 2021 10:48 am

Ditto in south Burgundy which is quite a few hundred miles further south though we are also getting stiff northerly breezes which are dropping the perceived temperatures by a few degrees more.
As already reported, France has declared an agricultural emergency. All of us are waiting with bated breath to see what becomes of the pear and plum crop. If the weekend forecast is right we might just get away with the apple crop!
”Global warming” this ain’t!

Reply to  StephenP
April 15, 2021 6:40 am

The mid-April “cold” here in the U.S. mid-Appalachians can be a good thing as budding plants are kept relatively quiescent and so perhaps less developed and thus less sensitive to later frosts/freezes.

Last edited 1 year ago by beng135
Ireneusz Palmowski
April 13, 2021 11:04 pm

A stratospheric polar vortex will strike the eastern and western US. In the east, the temperature change will be shocking.comment imagecomment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
April 13, 2021 11:13 pm

The temperature in the lower stratosphere above the 65th parallel is at the limit of previous measurements. The polar vortex continues to operate.comment imagecomment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
April 13, 2021 11:18 pm

There is a strong decrease in UV radiation due to the lack of active sunspots.comment image

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
April 14, 2021 9:36 am

I keep seeing this graph. It’s wrong. SC 15 began December 2019 and is about 15 months old now, not the 37 that this graph purports.

Reply to  Robert W Turner
April 14, 2021 10:58 am

I think you meant solar cycle 25 began in December 2019.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
April 15, 2021 1:41 am

Figure 4. Comparison of UV solar activity in the three most recent solar cycles (SC) 22-24. The thick curves show the Mg II index timeseries twice smoothed with a 55-day boxcar. Dates of minima of solar cycles (YYYYMMDD) were determined from the smoothed Mg II index.

April 13, 2021 11:24 pm

And not only does the Pause continue, but the trend is slipping down a notch to normal weather, which is pretty much anything under the Sun. The 30+ year warming trend is reversing direction a bit, perhaps to a 30+ year cooling trend. But that will just prove ‘Climate Change’ and we done it.

Last edited 1 year ago by Earthling2
Reply to  Earthling2
April 14, 2021 7:40 am

Ha ha yes, I can’t wait for the consensus climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide to go negative.

Reply to  Earthling2
April 14, 2021 10:46 am

I would not celebrate a cooling trend that may result in an ice age besides the Biden admin. and the rest of the climate alarmist jurisdictions worldwide will continue with their punitive environmental policies regardless of empirical data.

Be prepared to pay higher prices for everything.

Peter W
Reply to  S.K.
April 14, 2021 3:59 pm

The Little Ice Age in the 1600’s was the coldest earth has been for close to 10,000 years. The big question is, will the coming cold be the start of the next BIG ice age due to the approximate 100,000 year Milankovitch cycles. My observation is that the BIG ice age is a bit overdue. Good luck to all of us.

Ireneusz Palmowski
April 13, 2021 11:47 pm
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
April 14, 2021 5:56 am

ENSO is now in neutral territory.

Reply to  rah
April 14, 2021 7:46 am

In the eastern equatorial Pacific, easterly winds continue.
comment image

Reply to  ren
April 14, 2021 7:52 am

That may be so and the effects will continue for a time because these things don’t turn on a dime but the fact is we no longer have an LaNina. Thus I suspect that Joe Bastardi may be right and we here in much of the US may see the warmest Summer since 2012.

Reply to  rah
April 14, 2021 8:54 am

Well, according to the ENSO Meter it’s still on the low end of neutral at about -0.4, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Given the fact that it’s April, and given the time lag, I doubt that there will be an El Nino in time to warm us all up for summer,

Reply to  rah
April 15, 2021 7:27 am

we here in much of the US may see the warmest Summer since 2012.

That’d be fine w/me. My records show good summer precip here in the US mid-Appalachians in 2012 and a good growing season.

Reply to  rah
April 14, 2021 7:51 am

Temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific will drop.comment image

Reply to  ren
April 14, 2021 8:02 am

Yep that is what I think but probably not until the Fall. If I had to bet that is when the La NIna returns and not before.

Reply to  rah
April 14, 2021 8:44 am

I think it’s about a month away. All it will take is a slight increase in solar wind activity.

Reply to  rah
April 14, 2021 9:33 am

The 20 C isotherm shows exactly what is happening now in the Southeast Pacific. You can see the very cold Humboldt Current.

M Courtney
April 13, 2021 11:54 pm

Weather not Climate.

So the point being that, if we can cope with 30°C temperature change from one calendar year to the next we can certainly cope with 3°C (worst case) in a century.

The changes in the weather are ten times greater and a hundred times faster. And if we cope with that we can practically ignore climate change.

So long as we remember to invest in infrastructure like flood defenses. But if we don’t we have a problem even without global warming.

Gunga Din
Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 2:53 pm

And so long as we don’t use Biden’s new definition of “infrastructure”.

Peter W
Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 4:03 pm

Apparently you are unaware of the MIlankovitch cycles, approximate 100,000 year cycles which give us some 90,000 years of BIG ice ages.

M Courtney
Reply to  Peter W
April 15, 2021 3:45 pm

How do you make that leap?
And what possible relevance does 100,000 year cycles have on adapting to weather changes?

April 13, 2021 11:55 pm

‘those the Gods choose to destroy, they first make mad….’

I guess The Creator is having a bit of a laugh at the Warmunistas expense at the moment.

April 14, 2021 12:01 am

Excerpt from my recent email to the Alberta government and North American media:
Following are three podcasts in which host Michael Martinz interviews my friends Dr Will Happer, Professor Emeritus in Physics, Princeton University and formerly of the USA Strategic Advisory Council, Dr Tammy Nemeth, a Canadian historian who resides in Britain, and me.
Dr Nemeth dissects the strategies of the leftists and reveals their primary objective – the total destruction of our society.
Dr Tammy Nemeth—Ep62—The-climate-alarmism-narrative-perpetrated-by-Transnational-Progressive-Movement-and-the-destruction-of-our-present-way-of-life—with-Dr–Tammy-Nemeth–PhD-eurcpg
Dr William Happer—Ep60—The-effects-of-CO2-on-climate-have-been-grossly-misrepresented—with-Dr–William-Happer–PhD-Professor-Emeritus-Princeton-University-etqm8j
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng.—Ep59—A-true-Canadian-Patriot-raises-the-alarm-against-the-delusional-disinformation-revolution-underway—with-Allan-MacRae–M-Eng-etgjg9

April 14, 2021 1:48 am

If you have time, listen to Tammy Nemeth’s interview – she nails it – the leftists core plan is to destroy our society, starting with our energy systems. That means the death of multitudes.
Regards, Allan

Ed Zuiderwijk
April 14, 2021 1:55 am

Don’t worry. 2021 is still heading to be one of the warmest years evah!

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
April 14, 2021 8:08 am

Of course.
It was booked 5 years ago.

April 14, 2021 1:57 am

Meanwhile, Environment Canada seems blissfully unaware of what’s coming for the Toronto area later this week. That said, their six day forecast is best viewed as entertainment only.

Reply to  commieBob
April 14, 2021 6:41 am

CB …. my buddy would joke that environment canada couldn’t get yesterday’s weather right.

Reply to  stewartpid
April 14, 2021 1:48 pm

That is no joke, it is also true of NOAA and NIST and BEST. Their biggest problems are that yesterday’s temperature keeps changing.

Leo Smith
April 14, 2021 2:34 am

Sub zero (Celsius) and some snow in the UK too…La Niña hasn’t finished with us yet…

Julian Flood
Reply to  Leo Smith
April 14, 2021 2:58 am

Gridwatch Templar rules!


April 14, 2021 3:30 am

Took a dip in the North Sea (Scheveningen) this morning, a lot colder than previous years.

Bruce Cobb
April 14, 2021 4:30 am

Too late. Winter has already left, meteorologically speaking, so this would just be a re-emergence of it, which is not uncommon here in New England in the Spring. Still, it is fun to speculate about a possible cooling period, of perhaps 30 years or more. Indeed, we may have even begun cooling already, but that probably wouldn’t be apparent for several more years.

April 14, 2021 4:32 am

Joe Bastardi has been forecasting this coming for at least two weeks. Now the weather model ensembles have finally caught up.

Tom in Florida
April 14, 2021 4:32 am

Meanwhile, the Gulf water temperature off Venice FL is 74F, as usual:
(Statistics for 14 Apr 1981-2005 – mean: 73 max: 76 min: 70 °F)

Jim in NEF
Reply to  Tom in Florida
April 14, 2021 7:39 am

Today’s A Street sea temperature is 68 °F(Statistics for 14 Apr 1981-2005 – mean: 72 max: 75 min: 68 °F)

From the same source as Tom’s, but for St. Augustine, our little sanctuary.

A surf forcast for Naples seems a bit ambitious.

H. D. Hoese
Reply to  Jim in NEF
April 14, 2021 8:31 am

Whatever the root cause is, and this is early, NE Florida coast known for its upwelling. Green, C. K. 1944. Summer upwelling northeast coast of Florida. Science. 100:546-547.

very old white guy
April 14, 2021 5:16 am

Not sure about the location of others but where I live it was a common practice to not plant gardens until the May 24th weekend.

Reply to  very old white guy
April 14, 2021 7:15 am

That’s the rule here in central Indiana. Don’t plant before Mothers Day.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  very old white guy
April 14, 2021 8:31 am

Yes, May long weekend in Canada, that was traditional for actual plants, a week earlier for seeds.
I’m leery of putting plants out before June 1, and even then watch close

Robert W Turner
Reply to  very old white guy
April 14, 2021 9:39 am

Depends on what you’re planting…

Reply to  Robert W Turner
April 14, 2021 10:42 am

Tubers can go in earlier.

Reply to  very old white guy
April 15, 2021 7:31 am

That’s pretty much the local practice here in a frost hollow in west MD. Maybe a week earlier at most. Last yr had a particularly bad frost in mid-May.

April 14, 2021 5:51 am

Solar minimum is not going away without a fight.

But remember there is no correlation as you pull out your coats from the closet. We would have more research on effects in jet stream variability and overall NH if it weren’t for debate has ended controls on science. Congrats to the enforcers of CAGW.

April 14, 2021 6:36 am

From the NWS Area Forecast Discussion for Albany/Southern Vermont:

Volatile, fitting for this time of year (transition season, prime
shoulder season), is a great way to describe the weather pattern
during this timeframe. After experiencing May-like temperatures on
both Tuesday and Wednesday, in a 36-48 hours period, the weather
pattern pendulum just like that swings back into winter mode.

Key Takeaways:
* Winter weather returns Thursday night into Friday
* Rainfall Thursday-Friday could be moderate to heavy at times.
* Precipitation type will mostly be in the form of rain in the
  valleys. Could change over to a rain/snow mix late Thursday night
  into Friday. Any snow accumulation will be very light (less than
  one inch). Any snow accumulations will occur on unpaved surfaces.
* Preliminary snow amounts Thursday night-Friday: 1-3 inches over
  the eastern Catskills, 2-6 inches over the SW Adirondacks, 3-8
  inches over the Berkshires, and 5-10 inches over southern VT with
  locally higher amounts up to 12 inches
* Snow could be moderate to heavy at times
* Snow to liquid ratios will be on the order of 5-9:1 (wet snow

Looks like 12 inches where I live. Wet and heavy. Whooeee!

Reply to  yirgach
April 14, 2021 8:09 am

Also the maple syrple season was DOA this year. Mostly because of the long drawn out cold winter. There was no January thaw, which generally kickstarts the sap flow in February/March. Those with south facing sugar bushes did better, but overall the yields were similar to the 2012 non-season.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  yirgach
April 14, 2021 8:29 am

The quebec sugar mafia is going to like that news, prices going up, can trickle supply out of vast warehouses and pretend there is a shortage.
Typical monopoly

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  yirgach
April 14, 2021 8:52 am

I did not check how it was in the east. However, I have a number of Silver Maples from which the syrup is very similar to the Sugar Maple. This year the temperature was up and down and the sap started and stopped a few times. However, in total the sap did not differ much from before. I did have lower amounts before when the temperature went up and stayed up. What was surprising this year is the sugar content. The average is supposed to be about 40 to 1. I rechecked the measurements and I keep coming up with about 25 to 1. It means my carbon footprint was lower.

Reply to  Gerald Machnee
April 15, 2021 7:36 am

Interesting about silver maples. I don’t harvest, but here’s one of my sugar maples.

SugarMaple trunk.JPG
The Fringe
April 14, 2021 6:45 am

seriously this has been on for over 2 weeks .Thats what we do as we have to give our clients and edge. Remember Joe D Aleo, who is the Moses of meteorology sees all and knows all about the past ha ha. In any case MJO rotation in 7 at this time of the year and blocking. last weeks headline ( April 8 blog). “April Version of Feb lurking” In addition I pointed out in Cfact blog here that this may spike Covid again,or at least level off the seasonal fall off. This was a week ago. Finally the MJO amplitude at this time of the year and the cold has LINKAGE to the kind of high impact season we are forecasting. Read about it here, if you have not on our site already. BTW. did you notice that when it got cold in the UK early Feb then the cold showed in the US. That is due to blocks backing. Cold never really spread back in March, so we went other way as we went strong into phase 6 ( the kiss of death for cold). But they sucked into believing winter was over in Europe ( I have clients there and in late March they were remarking that forecasts showed no cold, we were forecasting it). So when it backs, it attacks. Look I know this sounds pompous but I want people to understand the seeds are planted way way before. Too often our side waits till something shows up as the other side does, and then they blame climate change and we counter. We have approached this all wrong You get out there and forecast the why before the what and then reference it when it comes, so if and when it does. you can simply ask the person pushing the other side, why didnt you say something before? They have weaponized weather and use it to a T and we have ceded that to them. The only possible way to counter this is to have bold forecasts that you can show in advance linked to past events. get it out there ( yes you take the risk of being wrong, but thats life) and then if and when it shows up, have the dates you explained ready and then question whoever makes whatever comment, why didnt you see that. BTW we have a big IMPACT year on the way like last year, but taking a bit different course to it. Read that above. Cheers

Reply to  The Fringe
April 14, 2021 8:57 am
April 14, 2021 8:03 am

Been telling people around here(western PA) to hold off planting stuff. Lowes and HD both have lots of plants in bloom for sale, people going to be replanting if they jump the gun.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  2hotel9
April 14, 2021 8:25 am

That is the garden center economic plan you are messing with.
Buy, plant, freeze, repeat.
There are annuals for sale here in calgary and technically you are crazy to plant those out before June 1.
Its like the bars in Calgary, 10 days of Stampede paid all the bills for the year, the other 355 days were the gravy.
Garden centers need to make hay while the sun shines, i have no issue with them doing it if people are dumb enough to plant early.

I love western PA, i represent a company based in Pittsburgh, visit 12-15 times a year, love that place, still looking for Batman tho.

Last edited 1 year ago by Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
April 14, 2021 8:54 am

Last year our local Lowes and HD(Butler)lost a pile of money from frosted livestock, Lowes fired the manager for not moving it all indoors. They also had mowers and such outside the snowed on and then iced over during the next couple of days in that event. Watching the weather at lunchtime could have saved money and grief.

Reply to  2hotel9
April 14, 2021 2:55 pm

I’ve been around three times now to all the areas where the geese and ducks nest and start the family cycle and it is too cold yet for the females to start laying their eggs. Lots of squawking, and the forecast is NOT for warmer weather, but rather, 30s to very low 40s at night – NOT what we usually get around here. And yes, we’re getting the southern part of that cold air mass coming out of Canada. It is, in fact, going even further south of where I live.

The only people who may have a successful year this time will likely be the veggie gardeners who start their plants in covered areas and can keep them there until the weather warms up.

Even the GRASS IS SHORTER than normal around here, and I do NOT mean just my lawn. It is shorter than normal even in the “park” areas, which means it is depriving the breeding geese of food, which is grass and other plants.

Reply to  Sara
April 14, 2021 5:22 pm

Not shorter here at my acre in central Indiana. I mowed Friday and mowed again today (Wednesday) and raked up some grass cuttings.

Pat from Kerbob
April 14, 2021 8:22 am

I don’t wish this on any of my friends in the usa, to me this just means you are getting canadian weather for a bit longer.
I’ve lived in calgary now 25 years and have seen snow in all 12 months, have had my garden decimated in mid june and mid-august by artic blasts.

I must not be very smart, as i seem to like it here.

Pat from Kerbob
April 14, 2021 8:34 am

My prediction is that they will state that since winter is over, this cold snap proves human CO2 induced climate emergency is responsible.
Because cold
After warm.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
April 14, 2021 3:09 pm

And there will be an increase in rerunning “The Day After Tomorrow” on American TV.

April 14, 2021 8:38 am

It seems the probability of a double-dip La Niña cycle emerging later this year is increasing:

A double-dip La Niña cycle, could cause UAH6.0 temp anomalies to fall to less than -0.4C by next year to the great embarrassment and consternation of CAGW religious cultists.

It’s still a bit early, but it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

H. D. Hoese
April 14, 2021 8:55 am

It does seem unusual in the Gulf of Mexico, reminds me of the 1960s.
“When the vessel capsized, Tuesday, powerful wind gusts were reaching 117 mph in the area around the time the vessel began to sink.”

April 14, 2021 8:56 am

Maybe a bit more caution and concern for major weather events is in order all around….

6 rescued, others missing after 129-foot lift boat capsizes off Louisiana coast – ABC News (

Reply to  ResourceGuy
April 14, 2021 9:08 am

Spri9ng along the Gulf Coast can be damned rough, was talking to my mom down in Pearl River county, MS on Sunday and they been having some pretty bad weather. She is 45 miles inland, over open water it can get bad, fast.

April 14, 2021 10:29 am

Here is NOAA’s forecast for the month of April (1:25 mark). Try not to laugh.

Thank you Tony H.

April 14, 2021 11:16 am

Yeah, that is exactly what the National Weather Service’s forecast is for my area (NE IL) for Friday and/or the weekend and it is cold enough to make you sit up and take notice this morning.

I still have my furnace running, THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. I usually have it turned off by 1st week in April. We are way past that now.

Even so, the ;local fruit trees that grew up from apple cores and peach seeds and apricot kernels tossed out the window of the car by homeward bound commuters – well, they’re showing some blossoming. The real problem is not enough rain so far. Too dry and that will have an effect down the road.

If the ecohippies and greenbeaners ever understand that COLD is the ABSENCE OF HEAT, someone please let me know? I like to be kept informed. Thanks!!!

Peter W
April 14, 2021 3:46 pm

This is why we relocated to central Florida from southern NH back in 2016.

Ulric Lyons
April 14, 2021 4:16 pm

I had forecast this negative NAO episode from a few months back. It’s down to weaker solar coronal hole streams and a lack of CME’s. But there are few coronal hole streams just incoming so positive NAO conditions will be soon returning. I can tell you which weeks California will get heatwaves later this summer way before they get blamed on cow farts.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
April 14, 2021 10:28 pm

In my opinion, the solar wind will be too weak to change the circulation completely, but it may still move the jet stream loops southward.

Ulric Lyons
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
April 15, 2021 10:56 am

Best to see what it does rather than try to imagine what it may do.

April 14, 2021 4:52 pm

They will haul out an ‘expert’ in Boston to say it is caused by global warming. Stay tuned on the Weather Channel.

Ireneusz Palmowski
April 14, 2021 10:39 pm

Why will winter last in the US and Europe? Because the polar vortex is still strong over Siberia and collapsing over North America.,96.40,372

Jim Hughes
April 15, 2021 5:34 am

This is not unusual. Nor surprising. The stratosphere has not transitioned to spring yet. No FW has occurred. So the PV is intact. Same thing happened in the spring of 1997. Snowstorm in the Northeast.

Reply to  Jim Hughes
April 15, 2021 11:46 am

Yes, the impact of the polar vortex around April 20th in the US will be painful.,96.40,372

April 15, 2021 2:33 pm

It’s snowing here (35 miles west of Denver) but this won’t keep them from declaring April 2021 is the warmest April ever.

April 15, 2021 8:06 pm

Well, out here on the wet coast we’ll be feeling for you but it is a long reach…. :-o)

(Yeah, we had cold in recent weeks, now a heat wave.

Friends in Calgary might appreciate the cold flow shown on one of your maps, as they are happy to keep skiing in the foothills.)

April 16, 2021 9:19 am

ah, the age-old Weather vs. Climate red herring! Just as no horse is too dead to beat, no logical fallacy is – evidently – too old to try again on the credulous.


Reply to  chris
April 17, 2021 5:47 am

Weather is climate and climate is weather. Do please try to keep up.

April 18, 2021 9:58 pm

Corn has been planted here and North Texas and they are calling for near freezing temps this week. That can’t be good.

Reply to  Brandon
April 19, 2021 7:52 am

Long as it has not sprouted yet it should be good.

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