Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
Ummm.. The EU just declared that Europe needs 50 million migrants to make up for native Euro low birthrate population decline problems.
those climate refugees will be invited to migrate and be counted as climate refugees whether we like it or not. The EU is onside of the UN when it comes to obliterating individuals nationalities any way they can.
And just think, nobody can stop the ruling class from doing it.
As long as this heinous march toward world rule by elites continues, the predictions made by the UN will come true and the children of the New World Order will learn that the UN is always correct.
these UN guys are shameless. The world ended in 2004
http://www.grida.no/graphic.aspx?f=pubs/planet_in_peril/figure06.jpg
jackie,
Thanks for posting that deceptive U. of East Anglia graph. They used a fictitious zero trend line, which makes viewers believe the planet is suddenly heating up.
The planet is naturally warming, but the trend goes back to the LIA, and it doesn’t change when CO2 suddenly rises after 1940. This graph shows how the UEA charlatans are deliberately deceiving the public.
.
.
Slacko says:
April 16, 2011 at 2:18 pm
noel says:
“I’ve got “notify me of follow-up comments via email” checked, so I shouldn’t miss the winner.”
Oddly, that emails you a notification of your own post, not any that follow.
———————————
It works fine for me. No winner yet!
.
.
My final comment (I think) Warmist organisations say whatever they want confident in the fact that most politicians and the media are on their side. They only highlight incidents that back their claims and ignore contrarian evidence. One thing that is causing them big problems is a cooling world and an Arctic that has so far refused to be ice-free. Not to mention the return of cold and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, booming ski resorts, rising coral island atolls, greening biosphere, ………………………………………………..
Ha Ha Ha you have all been double duped-fallen for the trick and no treat- you think you are so smart to find an obvious fault and can say ah ha I gottcha but he who laughs last laughs loudest. If they say one thing and then you are able to easily prove another then you think the first is false by the formers own findings but there in lies the trick. The warmer weather is real =the stronger storms are real – the rising water is real- the drought is real- the colder winter is real- it is all very real but instead of looking out your very own windows you see through the eyes of one that has been twice fooled so he knows not the truth nor can he think to prepare for it’s coming and even when he does see it, still he believes in the double blinded lie and refuses to accept it. God himself has foretold it’s truth in saying that man will die in his own pollution and in saying that the day comes when men will faint because of the heat of the sun and will look up and curse God because of the heat of the day. Do your own study and look at how we have changed the patterns of the winds and the rains, look for yourself and see how much less oxygen is in the air you breath now as to compared to 2000 years ago and 1000 years and now even faster we deplete the very essence of all life, the very air we all need. You laugh at 2.7 inches of rising in the sea level in a mere 22 years? , thats really quite a lot when you think how little real rising it takes- thats 5.4 in only 44 years and 10.8 in only 88 years and thats assuming that the rate progresses at the same pace which surely it will not as each degree of heat will speed the progression. You may laugh now but your kids wont thank you for it later and your grand children will curse you for it 100 years from now!
Quote from David Suzuki not sure of the date –
“Education has failed in a very serious way to convey the most important lesson science can teach: skepticism”
rp says:
April 16, 2011 at 4:53 pm
—————————————————-
Hey rp – you forgot the toads, frogs and the locusts.
Cheers
Douglas
rp says:
“The warmer weather is real =the stronger storms are real – the rising water is real- the drought is real- the colder winter is real- it is all very real but instead…” & etc, etc.
I’m willing to bet that faced with verifiable facts that debunk rp’s beliefs, rp will continue to believe that hurricanes, floods and tornadoes are getting stronger and more numerous, that more people are dying from natural disasters, etc. Let’s do an experiment, OK?… OK:
click1
click2
click3
click4
click5
click6
click7
The belief that hurricanes, tornadoes and floods are getting worse is contradicted by empirical evidence. Will the real world evidence convince rp? I suspect not. Once cognitive dissonance takes hold, reason flies out the window.
Au contraire; Google search: new orleans storm surge hurricane pressure including returns from Wiki and the nhc.noaa.gov …
.
rp says:
April 16, 2011 at 4:53 pm
“Do your own study and look at how we have changed the patterns of the winds and the rains, look for yourself and see how much less oxygen is in the air you breath now as to compared to 2000 years ago and 1000 years and now even faster we deplete the very essence of all life, the very air we all need”
That’s a new one. Ok, CO2 has risen by 40% to a whopping 0.039%; took us 50 years; so how long will it take to deplete the 20% of oxygen… let’s see… say 100 ppm or 0.01% per 50 years… that makes 2000*50 years. IOW 100,000 years. Ignoring the fact that there’s not enough carbon-containing fuel to achieve that. Say, are you a huffPo SuperUser?
rp,
“…look for yourself and see how much less oxygen is in the air you breath now as to compared to 2000 years ago and 1000 years and now even faster we deplete the very essence of all life, ”
Assuming that there is significantly less oxygen in the atmosphere than there was 1000 & 2000 years ago, which is doubtful at best, what was man doing that “polluted” the air 1000 & 2000 years ago?
At this rate we’ll soon get a prediction of 1 billion climate refugees by the year 2050.
But hey there is some good news.
Bill McKibben is in jail.
Here he is in his prison stripes.
http://www.thenation.com/video/158009/bill-mckibben-climate-change-our-most-urgent-challenge
I am an AGW Climate Change Refugee!
Everyone has been wondering where they are, so let me present my tale thus:
For twenty or more years, we lived peacefully and happily in the prosperous and intellectually stimulating town of Palo Alto, CA. Toward the end, when nothing was rising except property values and Google stock, we attended lectures by a then-unknown Steve Schneider who electrified crowds with the coming disaster brought about by our human folly. Palo Alto, in its civic and governmental life, became officially “Green,” a beacon for the restitution of the sins of the world.
Then unto Palo Alto came a sign – in the form of the great El Nino year of, what was it, 2007? The rains came, and for a few days, combined with high tides. Now, much of Palo Alto, including our (former) house, is located in a broad, gently sloping flood plain leading to San Francisco Bay. The waters rose, no more than a couple of feet, and pushed inland almost a mile to within four blocks of our very own house. The city government thoughtfully prepared by opening a sandbag station, but not wanting such ugliness to intrude on the commercial or residential districts, located it in on a point near the bay, where it was inconveniently under water when it was needed, but I digress.
In a civically active city like Palo Alto, anything that represents any possible deviation from the norm, must be addressed by legislation. Thus, all the areas reached by the “high water” even if only two or three inches, were now included in the “Flood Zone” zoning designation, with additional caveats to protect the residents, to wit, no flood insurance possible, and any “major” remodeling (like updating a bathroom) required the homeowner to RAISE their entire residence by three feet.
Needless to say, this had a deleterious effect on property values in the Flood Zone, which now passed within three blocks of our very own residence, reducing them by 25-40%.
With the AGW mania in full fledge (and warned by our friend David Evans about the hanky panky), we knew it was only a matter of time before some overenthusiastic bureaucrat would get a jump on the “coming” sea level rise and preemptively rezone the Flood Zone to include our own house – potentially lopping more than $500,000 from its value (yes the prices were and are crazy, thanks to the influx of Chinese money supporting PhD students at Stanford).
So we bailed – moving to Panama, as close to the equator as possible and 4000 feet up a mountain. Now we live literally in the Earth’s thermostat (Willis you are right), exquisitely sensitive to the vagaries of El Nino and La Nina, a dry year yielding only 200 inches of rain, but when serious cooling is needed, more than 300 inches. The ITCZ winds like a snake, north of us, over our heads, and south, creating the most interesting and informative weather I have experienced anywhere on this earth.
I have said before and say now, to really understand Earth’s climate, we need well supported observatories at the equator – and Panama is the prime location, being located on a knife edge between the Eastern Pacific and the Western Atlantic. Visitors are welcome…
A while ago I checked temperatures on a website from an app that is linked to Microsoft. The site showed temps and lows that the other sites claimed were really “warm” that day, and during the “hottest year on record” last year it showed several lows set in early July and less highs than the other stations recorded here. Mysteriously, after the summer ended, the app sent me to a different website and searching for that one found no results.
I suppose with AGW theory you’re right or you just delete the evidence to the contrary.
To a religious person or ideologue, reality that contradicts their beliefs represents an opportunity to strengthen their faith.
I get that if you become emotionally bound to an idea or faith, you have to do this if you want to maintain your belief. I don’t get why people who claim to value empirical knowledge do it.
Who let rp out?
how long will it be until gov’t controls Google and the wayback site?
Lol !! Must you shine the the blinding light of truth on these attempts to hide the Incline?
Cant the UN be allowed to quietly sweep 50 million people under the carpet?
G’day Anthony,
I’m running with this one too. God bless the UN: the place where the fun never stops!
Best,
Ozboy
More ‘disappeared’ documents:
From Gavin Atkins site:
http://asiancorrespondent.com/7762/goalposts-moved/
I tried to follow the given link to Oxfam, which claims 75 million refugees by 2050. This is in the context of Pacific Islands, which has a population of about 6 million, as Gavin points outs.
http://www.oxfam.org.au/campaigns/climate-change/docs/The-future-is-here-final-report.pdf
No error message there, but no report either. So I did a site search for the report name, and lo and behold, it is still there.
http://www.oxfam.org.au/media/releases/campaigns-and-advocacy?p=1867
And yep, 75 million by 2050. Out of a population of 6 million. Neat trick. Its much better than the disappearing trick that seems in vogue on these sites.
(and yes, his wording indicates the Asia-pacific region. But in the context of this article on the Pacific Islands, its hard not to conflate the two.)
The handy map isn’t depicting areas at risk by 2010. It’s depicting areas at risk in the longer term. Have none of you read the report the map is based on?
Read the report the map references. The report says:
“Of the 25 million environmental refugees in 1995, there were roughly five
million in the African Sahel, where a full ten million people had fled from recent
droughts, only half returning home. Another four million, out of eleven million
refugees of all types, were in the Horn of Africa including Sudan….”
The report predicted that number would double by 2010 to 50 million. There’s no mention of sea level rise or hurricanes being the cause *by 2010*. That comes later, as the report says “when global warming takes hold”.
Correction due?
onion2: Perhaps you don’t read all the suggested links. From one of mine, from UN University and UNEP.
“Rising sea levels, increasing desertification, weather-induced flooding, and more frequent natural disasters have, and will increasingly become, a major cause of population displacement in several parts of the world,” the statement said.
Citing a report from the UN University, UNEP said that there were now more than 19 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern” – people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.
We await your correction.
‘That comes later, as the report says “when global warming takes hold”.’ onion2
So you are claiming that global warming has yet to kick in? I thought the whole ‘consensus’ was that it already had! That must mean that all these ‘environmental’ refugees you referred to, were fleeing from Natural circumstances.
onion2 says:
April 17, 2011 at 8:30 am
Nice try stinky man. You truly are a good soldier.
Unfortunately, you neglect to mention the the “handy map” was the first thing on an article entitled “Fifty Million Climate Refuges by 2010”.
Also, as pointed out several times in the comments, subsequent reporting and quotes from the UN emphasized refuges and sea-level rise in the same context:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=27094&Cr=refugee&Cr1
See also the Guardian article referenced in the comments, specifically here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/#comment-643004
But perhaps you share the sentiments of Robert Manley, also in the comments above:
You know, you smarter guys are always telling us dumber guys how important “context” is.
Why should a correction be issued when the “context” is accurately protrayed?