The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees, then botches the disappearing attempt

Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.

Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:

What happened to the climate refugees?

It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:

==============================================================

In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.

The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.

It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:

Bahamas:

Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas.  The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.

St Lucia:

The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.

Seychelles:

Population 2002, 81755

Population 2010, 88311

Solomon Islands:

The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.

It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.

=========================================================

After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor NewsAmerican Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.

Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010

…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:

Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.

It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.

Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.

http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png

Ooops.

I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.

Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.

UNEP map, Emmanuelle Bournay

And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:

11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)

And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.

Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.

Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda

UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:

Fifty million climate refugees by 2010. Today we find a world of asymmetric development, unsustainable natural resource use, and continued rural and urban poverty. There is general agreement about the current global environmental and development crisis. It is also known that the consequences of these global changes have the most devastating impacts on the poorest, who historically have had limited entitlements and opportunities for growth.
Sources Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007.
Link to web-site http://www.agassessment.org/
Cartographer/
Designer
Emmanuelle Bournay
Appears in IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development
Published 2008

UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.

click image for original story

And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:

Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.

I’ve sent her this message tonight:

Dear Professor Tirado,

It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0

At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41

Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.

Anthony Watts

http://www.wattsupwiththat.com

UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.

General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)

Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.

Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm

UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.

Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).

Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.

I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.

Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.

I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.

The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony

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272 thoughts on “The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees, then botches the disappearing attempt

  1. I am sick of manmade global warming. It has always been about money. And some will sacrifice morals because of their love of money. Manmade global warming has made some people rich. No matter to them that people have starved to death in the process.

    “For the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil.”

  2. Another subtle admission that this is not science. In science it’s OK to be wrong. There’s no need to sweep your mistakes under the rug.

  3. I still think the “50 million climate refugees by 2010” author, editor, or authority responsible should be identified. Maybe he/she/they really meant 5,000 by 2100 or some such set of numbers. As written, it was and is just silly. Typical for the UN, though. The USA’s contribution to the UN helps fund this nonsense.

  4. Dang! I was going to open a lemonade stand in my backyard to serve the miles-long string of climate refugees that were going to be trudging by. I mean, what could go wrong with a business plan like that?

    The I pee, si! si! said it would happen last year and I haven’t sold the first glass of lemonade. I want my money back. After all, for the amount of money that’s been paid in I should at least get some accurate information to act on, right?

    (hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Dream on, H.R.)

  5. can someone please post the original source of the UN prediction? Something that unquestionably links the prediction to the UN.

    thx

  6. Thank you so much. After climategate and countless other U.N. debunkings such as this one, I can’t believe the alarmists are still so influential.

    Has anyone else noticed that Zimbabwe signed onto Kyoto in 2009. Seeing as how Mugabe has destroyed that economy (thereby reducing CO2 production) he now stands to gain millions via Kyoto.

  7. There really are millions of climate refugees you know. Thet have fled the Midwest and Northeast and now live in places like Florida and Arizona.

  8. Does it include the numbers of people, mainly retired oldies, who move to Florida, Queensland and various Mediterranean warm spots? there’s got to be quite a few tens of millions of Climate refugees right there.

  9. I have also saved a copy…knowing how Google has been notorious for holding real science in contempt…and wishing ill on skeptics. Make it go viral!

  10. “In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010.”

    Oh. I see the problem. Just some bad editing. Probably some intern did it. Should read:

    In 2005, the United Nations predicted that it will create 50 million refugees by 2010.

    So they did get the date wrong but they are still trying… so please, cut them some slack. They are not that organized and those lose stuff and if you stress them out they could have a nervous breakdown or suffer from reduced self esteem.

  11. Check the map. It says we will be subjected to more Hurrricanes which I think are a level more deadly than normal hurricanes.
    Also can they tell us which small islands have disappeared completely?

    Thank Gavin Atkins

  12. I guess Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren must have been consulted by Achim Steiner from UNEP in order to concoct this amazing prediction.
    The incredible thing is how these people from UNEP are able to contribute every extreme weather event to “climate change”, meaning human caused global warming and no journalists ever seam to ask any basic questions about this supposed relationship.
    And they are our unelected representatives or “expert” via the UN system!

  13. Just noticed something about that map… the alleged area that will be exposed to desertification and drought in North America has an absolutely impossible ‘prediction’ showing a strip of that crossing the Rockies and apparently following the Columbia River, more or less.

    Seriously, that must simply be made up… These kids need new coloring books, or better coloring lessons.

    Anyhow, thanks for saving this Anthony. You do care about the children!

  14. ZT says:
    April 15, 2011 at 6:22 pm
    Ok – this is off topic – but I’ll include the link anyway…for some Friday giggles
    ==========

    THAT was funny. Thanks.

  15. RE:
    ZT says:
    April 15, 2011 at 6:22 pm

    The ‘Way Back Machine’ is also a good way of keeping track of those with a propensity for Orwellian cover up:

    I was there. Could not get it.

  16. I just noticed that the Queen Charlotte Islands are located in “Arctic areas vulnerable to ice and permafrost melting”…not only is the map and its doomy prediction wrong, the last time I heard about the QCI they were a lush temperate rain forest…so, apparently, global cooling must have been expected by 2010. Whoopsy-daisy!

  17. I read Gavins blog and one of the replies is from Nick Nuttall who denies the UN ever said any such thing. Who ya’ gonna believe, Nickie or your lying eyes?

    #

    …] happened to the climate refugees? What happened to the climate refugees? [...]
    #
    Nick Nuttall

    Dear Gavin, I read with interest your bog not least as Spokesperson for the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

    I have trawled through our records and cannot spot UNEP havng made such a statement about numbers of climate refugees by 2010.

    I suspect that there is a measure of misunderstanding here linked to that ‘handy map’ to which you refer.
    UNEP has a centre in Arendal, Norway called Grid Arendal tht produces graphics and maps for publications. Some of the graphic artists have a long standing relationship with Le Monde Diplomatique, a French publication, and were asked to produce a graphic basedon various scientific papers (sourced on that ‘handy map’).

    GRID Arendal archive/have a library of graphics and the one you refer to is archived there.
    So the top and bottom is that the figure of 50 million refugees is actually not ours.
    That does not mean there are not environmental refugees including climate ones. But we do not have any projections ourselves.
    There are however quite a lot of universities/research centres around the world trying to unravel his complex issue.
    Given your interest in the subject you might like to go to for example to the Refugee Studies Centre at the University of Oxford or the site of the International Displacement Monitoring Centre.
    Regards, Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson, Nairobi, Kenya

  18. The map legend says that some small islands ‘will disappear completely.’ So, how many islands have we lost?

    The map also says that ‘the effect of climate changes [in producing refugees] comes on top of poverty and war.’ Isn’t this a sort of nonsense statement? Does the movement of refugees from a war/genocide zone change measurably because of a (debatable) 1 degree difference in air temperature?

  19. Are we really surprised? I made a pdf-print of the UN website early April and also downloaded the full map! This is just too ironic to be true – or maybe just sad. Great stuff though Anthony to pick this up!

  20. Anthony, thank you for helping out the UN with this, I’m sure they appreciate the fact that you have reminded lots of people how much of a scam the AGW is. Keep up the good work.

  21. FR Said “The map also says that ‘the effect of climate changes [in producing refugees] comes on top of poverty and war.’ Isn’t this a sort of nonsense statement? Does the movement of refugees from a war/genocide zone change measurably because of a (debatable) 1 degree difference in air temperature?”

    The UN is working on this in the MidEast right now! Lybia, Egypt, etc.

  22. St. Lucia? Low-lying? Whaaaaaaaa?

    I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that somebody’s never laid eyes on St. Lucia. If that’s their idea of a low-lying island, they probably think the Himalayas are a set of modest hills.

  23. @It’s always Marcia, Marcia says:
    April 15, 2011 at 6:11 pm

    “And so, at first, greed for money grew, then greed for power. These things were the root, so to speak, of all evil”
    -Sallust (86-35 BC), “Cataline’s Conspiracy”

  24. Wondering Aloud says:
    April 15, 2011 at 6:51 pm

    “There really are millions of climate refugees you know.”

    Probably due to Calif. climate regulations.

  25. What the heck, it’s Friday; here’s the whole quote. See if it reminds you of anything:

    “Fortune began to grow cruel and confuse everything. Men who had easily endured hard work, dangers, uncerainty and adversity found that leisure and wealth, things desirable at other times, were a burden and the cause of misery. And so, at first, greed for money grew, then greed for power. These things were the root, so to speak of all evils. For avarice undermined trust, goodness, and other noble qualities, and in their place taught pride and cruelty, taught men to neglect the gods and to put a price on everything. Ambition forced many men to become liars, to hide one thing in their heart and have something else ready on their tongue, to value friendship and enmity according to convenience, not substance, and to put up a good face rather than have a good heart. At first, these things grew gradually, they were punished occasionally; afterwards, when this contagion invaded like a plague, the state changed, and political power which had been most just and best became cruel and intolerable.”
    -Sallust (86-35BC) describing the decline of the Roman Empire in “Cataline’s Conspiracy”. The joke is that Sallust should know these things; he was one of the worst of them for a while.

  26. Got two more climate refugee’s here. My husband and I are moving from scorching Canada to cooler Nassau, Bahamas. A friend of mine also just moved from overheated Toronto to Mexico. Other friends of mine just moved from the really hot Barrie, On to Texas. We are working on that 50 Million.

  27. What is the island nation that pulled the stunt of having a cabinet meeting underwater? Participants wore scuba gear. It happened a year ago or so. Some reporter had the good sense to ask the president how much house prices had fallen on his island because of the imminent flooding. Being a politician, he was trapped. He said they had not fallen.

    I think that whenever the UN or some such agency predicts a local catastrophe, they should be required to do an annual survey of house prices. But that is just too much reality for Warmista.

    REPLY: Got it right here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/maldivians-pull-underwater-publicity-stunt/

    Anthony

  28. .
    .
    What I would love to find is David Suzuki’s prediction in 1987/88 or so, that the sea-level would rise 1 metre by the year 2000. Such nonsense got me doing my own check, just to make sure. I was about to buy some land, and the road to it was nearly at the high-tide mark.

    Funny thing, during the last many years, all the surrounding land must have had a land-level rise of about the same amount. The road has not yet been breached.

    The first person who can point me to the authentic prediction wins a bottle of a good single-malt whiskey, say, “Glen Breton”, “Turtle Island’s” only single-malt. [If you don't know where "Turtle Island" is, you may be standing on it. :-) I've got "notify me of follow-up comments via email" checked, so I shouldn't miss the winner.]
    .
    .

  29. “……when people are not living in sustainable conditions, they migrate….”

    If I don’t believe in “sustainability” does that count? My whole life is unsustainable.

    In fact, I’m quite certain it will end badly.

    But, seriously, I’ve moved at least 50 times in my life. It’s not fun, but it isn’t a big deal.

  30. What’s sooo annoying about all these failed AGW/CC predictions is this UN propaganda is taught in schools. Never get retractions though when it’s proven to be wrong. It still goes on being taught as it happened or will still happen!

    Anyone who has an ounce of commonsense and being rational and objective knows what a load of toss those claims are. Same as the claims in Al Gore’s Sci-Fi fantasy an Inconvenient Truth claiming New Zealand has climate change refugees!

  31. I’m reading the first part of this and thinking of posting a spoof about them extending the 2010 by 5 or 10 years and clinging to the same tale.
    Then I came across this.
    “UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.”

    Ya just can’t lampoon these people because they end up being the lampoon.

    Then there’s this.

    “Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one.”

    Of course they do. They are part of the lampoonium predictium.

    I’ve been disgusted with that distribution of idiocy by the media and blogs ever since I watched the distribution of Jane Lubchenco’s entirely fabricated AGW link to ocean dead zones. That got her appointed to head NOAA.

  32. Well, in the 5 years between 2005 and 2010 the sea level rose about 0.58 inches; which is slightly less that the rising rate of 2005 would have predicted. Now why didn’t a half inch of sea level rise cause 50 million refugees? The 1.16 inches that we will get by 2020 will be sure to do the job. It seems to me that someone with a good lawyer should be able to make the case that they were unduly pannicked into costly actions by the UN predictions of 2005. And they should be able to get some money from the UN for it.

  33. Oh where to begin…

    They seriously spelled it ‘Caribbian’?

    The plotted Shishmaref, AK on the map? As of the 2000 Census, the population of Shishmaref was 562. Anchorage is also in the ‘permafrost is melting, clathrates are breaking down, we all gon’ die!’ zone (not to mention being on the water) and they choose to highlight a village of 562 people?…

    Southern Louisiana isn’t a major delta? They chose to highlight New Orleans, yet they don’t bother to realize that the Mississippi is one of the larger (and hydrologically older) rivers in the world?

    The ‘Central Asia’ tag is almost on the extreme western periphery of the Asian continent?

    Yes, this map was clearly produced by the finest cartographers at work in the world today…

  34. Hoo boy, government idiocy at its finest.

    Please. Bureaucratic idiocy, yes. But let’s not promote the UN to the status of “government”. Nobody elected those people to govern anyone or anything. I know the UN fancies itself has having the authority of a “government” as do many individuals, but let’s not go buying into that, please.

    The UN has as much authority as the Odd Fellows Ladies Auxiliary of Poughkeepsie.

    REPLY: I dunno, have you seen the handbags those old gals wield? Point taken though. – Anthony

  35. I notice that the map includes Stewart Island in New Zealand. Needs a sea level rise of around 1000 metres to ‘sink’ it.
    Here is a geographical description of Stewart Island. This hilly island with a wet climate has an area of 1 746 km². The highest peak is Mount Anglem (979 metres (3,212 ft)), close to the northern coast it is one of a rim of ridges that surround Freshwater Valley. The southern half is more uniformly undulating, rising to a ridge that runs south from the valley of the Rakeahua River, which also flows into Paterson Inlet. The southernmost point in this ridge is Mount Allen, at 750 metres (2,460 ft). In the southeast the land is somewhat lower, and is drained by the valleys of the Toitoi River, Lords River, and Heron River. South West Cape on this island is the southernmost point of the main islands of New Zealand.
    Also the Chatham Islands east of Christchurch NZ These could be dealt with by a mere 300metres.

    The islands are generally hilly with the coasts a varied mixture including cliffs and sand dunes, beaches and lagoons. Pitt is more rugged than Chatham (Rekohu), although the highest point (299 metres / 981 feet) is on a plateau near the southernmost point of the main island.
    So much for the accuracy of their data.

    Douglas

  36. Curiousgeorge says:
    April 15, 2011 at 7:37 pm

    I read Gavins blog and one of the replies is from Nick Nuttall who denies the UN ever said any such thing.

    =//=//=//=//=

    It looks to me like Nick Nuttall’s denial is fairly true. The data came from a paper from a (on the face of it) non-UN conference and was published by a non-UN organization.

    GRID-Arendal is a collaborating centre of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Established in 1989 by the Government of Norway as a Norwegian Foundation, our mission is to communicate environmental information to policy-makers and facilitate environmental decision-making for change.
    http://www.grida.no/

    GRID-Arendal is an official United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) collaborating centre, supporting informed decision making and awareness-raising through:

    * Environmental information management and assessment
    * Capacity building services
    * Outreach and communication tools, methodologies and products

    As UNEP’s Key Polar Centre, we are involved with initiatives in the Polar Regions, and increasingly, we are broadening our focus on sustainable development of the oceans and coasts elsewhere in the world.

    Our staff consists of a diverse team of international professionals. Through a dynamic portfolio of projects, we partner with various organizations to facilitate free access to and exchange of information in support of decision making and to promote a sustainable future.
    http://www.grida.no/about/

    followed by their “mission,” their “vision,” and their “values.” (Sorry, but that stupid organizational template really annoys me.)

    On the other hand, the group certainly displays the UNEP logo. If the UN doesn’t like the connection, they know what to do about that.

  37. I sent her a message which said that answering you was a losing game. I hope that she take my advice, you twist words.

    REPLY:
    Well John, I’d have printed her response in full, like the response I print from Dr. Walt Meier and other scientists I contact. But you’ve already prejudged and made sure to ruin any chance of response. Of course, that’s what I get for being open. If I hadn’t published the email I sent, people like yourself would claim I sent a “misleading email”.

    No problem though, I have a friend (former coworker) at a Los Angeles TV station, so I’ll get him on the trail and maybe we can get a response on camera…that way I can’t possibly twist words as you claim. I’m sure the good professor will enjoy the attention.

    I’ll be sure to contact you personally in 2020 to ask for an apology, which I’ll print in full when you make it. In the meantime enjoy your life as a Rattus Norvegicus.

    Anthony

  38. But there is no international conspiracy! Bahaha! I wouldn’t say conspiracy, more like groupthink, but still. In the words of my daughter:

    EPIC FAIL!

  39. Ohforchrissakes people. ‘Plausible denial’. Haven’t you ever heard of it? I don’t accept only things that are proven. Only a fool could. The original link, like it or not, comes from the UN. If they didn’t vet the source properly, shame on them. I sorely wish that people would hold public officials and their agencies to the same standards, at least, that private companies must report data under. That may be a start to fixing this whole mess.

  40. General Assembly, 8 July 2008
    GA/10725
    Sixty-second General Assembly
    Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)

    Statements
    SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.

    Panel Discussion
    The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

    Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm

  41. I did a google image search on “climate change refugee” and got 721,000 results.
    The “fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010″ shows up at:

    http://apus-sustainability.com/2010/02/26/climate-refugees/

    with additional commentary such as:
    “scholars have estimated that by 2050, the world could have as many as 200 million climate refugees.”

    http://www.climate.org/PDF/Environmental%20Exodus.pdf

    So lots of fun reading. “New Zealand will be accepting migrants from Tuvalu which is expected to be completely underwater by 2050. ”
    And apparantly I am funding some of these relocations taking place:
    “Canada is funding the relocation of residents from parts of Vanuatu affected by global warming. ”

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/apr/19/rising-sea-levels-in-pacific-create-wave-of-migran/

  42. What was it that CRU taught climatologists everywhere?
    1) Delete evidence that does not agree (check)
    2) Lie (check)
    3) Do not to make testable predictions (damn)
    (Looks like these guys have failed on 3) – they weren’t good climatologists)

    PS…while pondering the peculiarity of the Orwellian revisionism, I stumbled on the following paper from the US office of national intelligence (branding work required):

    http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/climate_change/cr200909_china_climate_change.pdf

    ‘China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 – Geopolitical Implications’ (so that is how they spend all the tax money)

  43. Here is one from 1988 predicting 1 meter of sea level rise over the next 50 years.

    And they know they can make absurd claims like that because the mass media will promote them widely when the claims are made yet be absolutely silent when they fail to materialize. The only information many people get is what blares through their car radio at the top of the hour during their commute. If it isn’t in that 5 minute newscast, it doesn’t exist for a lot of people. And getting a story such as “most climate warming consequences greatly exaggerated” in that 5 minute newscast is going to be practically impossible because it is guarded like Fort Knox. That newscast is the key to the American masses and they are careful to ensure that it contains only “the party line” when it comes to environmental news.

  44. In other words, the role of the mass media is to keep the US population “properly” misinformed. If you want the real story, you have to work for it and dig it out.

  45. Here is what Feynam’s wish would be to those who work for the UN


    So I have just one wish for you–the good luck to be somewhere
    where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have
    described, and where you do not feel forced by a need to maintain
    your position in the organization, or financial support, or so on,
    to lose your integrity. May you have that freedom.

  46. “Hoo boy, government idiocy at its finest”.

    Major Error, Antony. The UN is NOT a Government, despite the unremitting efforts of the New World Order to make it so. While the UN shares many characteristics
    of a Government – corruption, inefficiency, incompetence, financial incontinence, a safe harbour for rent-seekers – it is still merely a bureauocracy whose strictures can be safely ignored by every tin-pot dictator in the world. Referring to the UN as a government, even in jest, in such a prestigious journal as this, will merely encourage them in their delusions of grandure.

  47. “Rattus Norvegicus says:
    April 15, 2011 at 9:39 pm

    I sent her a message which said that answering you was a losing game. I hope that she take my advice, you twist words.”

    Anthony: I don’t think you “twist words” as much as some RATS mangle English.

  48. @noel: “The first person who can point me to the authentic prediction wins a bottle of a good single-malt whiskey, say, “Glen Breton”

    Well Noel I think you’ll find that all the predictions are authentic, they’re just not accurate. Talisker will do fine.

    G

  49. I am glad that many people can joke about it but I am beyond that today.

    I am really terrified by the amount of brazen lies and power-grabbing propaganda we all are fed with every day on TV, on the radio, in the press, and on websites (excluding this one, of course). I feel extremely depressed by the ability of the human nature to absorb so much BS.

    UN is a civilization-wrecking bunch of thieves’ deputies that should be dispersed, dismantled, banned, abolished, forgotten — ASAP!

    Les bureacrates a la lanterne!

  50. @Rattus Norvegicus: “I sent her a message which said that answering you was a losing game. I hope that she take my advice, you twist words.”

    What a wierd thing to do, don’t you have any buddies you can have a beer with? You know chew the fat, have a joke and a laugh? Get it out of your system by socialising, you’ll find yourself happier and less inclined to hating people you don’t know.

  51. As an Aussie, my eye was drawn to Australia on the map. There is a yellow band, meaning ‘area exposed to desertification and drought’. The bottom half of that band has been inundated for 4-6 month. See </a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/03/07/sw-queensland-awash/&quot; here for the town of Roma which is half way along that band. See also Broken Hill / Menindee and </a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/water-issues/life-flows-back-into-the-coorong-and-lower-lakes-20101001-16149.html?from=age_sb&quot; here

  52. With these outrageous claims increasing in frequency on an almost weekly basis would it be possible to offer a ‘reference’ section that listed on a two-line basis – ‘claim’ vs ‘actuality’ with two weblinks to the relevant articles?
    We could vote for a ‘top 10′ !!!

  53. I encourage people to read the entire page linked, and especially to use the very thoughtfully provided links to social network sites.

    I’ve just facebooked the page with my comment:

    “Where’d they all go?”

    Mocking laughter is the only proper response to this lunacy.

  54. That map looks very silly. I live in Oulu, Finland:

    http://maps.google.fi/maps?q=oulu&oe=utf-8&hl=fi&hq=&hnear=Oulu&ll=64.997939,25.488281&spn=30.191809,72.421875&z=4

    Oulu is marked as an area that is vulnerable to ice and permafrost melting. I can assure you, there is no permafrost here, nor can permafrost be found for several hundred kilometers to the north.

    Northern hemisphere permafrost extent can be seen from the map here: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/permafrost-extent-in-the-northern-hemisphere

    And even in the extreme northern parts of the country, where there actually is some permafrost and multi-year ice, it doesn’t serve any positive function. I’m not a native english-speaker, but doesn’t the word “vulnerable” imply the effect is bad, like permafrost is serving some important purpose there? You don’t say “I’m vulnerable to winning in the lottery!”

    The permafrost in northern scandinavia is in areas of no population, extremely thin (mostly rocky) soil, few animals and very little vegetation. Any increase in temperature will cause it to become more suitable for both flora and fauna. This is like winning in the lottery for everyone involved.

    They seem to be splashing those colors anywhere on the map where they think it looks credible.

  55. WUWT have showed us over and over again that AGW do not have any scientific ground. Case closed. Thank You for this big effort.

    It may be interesting to investigate why AGW became such a popular agenda for governments and organisations?
    I believe our governments and politicians as well as the voting people like the idea to have a imaginary problem instead of deal with real problem. Like job, economy, war, health, education, infrastructure, to mention a few issues. A easy way out from real life and everyday problem. And also for the media. New problem instead of the same old one.
    In short. A big cover up for real mistakes.

    Example UN: they lack success stories so they need to have one issue, to work with that cant fail. AGW fit perfect for this inefficient bureaucrats.
    Instead of produce significant results in global health, freedom, education have they focus of a imaginary problem.
    So convenient.

  56. The source quoted on the UNEP web site is a paper by Prof. Norman Myers, of Green College, Oxford University, U.K. presented at an OSCE forum in 2005. The crucial paragraph is:

    “As far back as 1995 (latest date for a comprehensive assessment), these environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million
    traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and
    ethnic troubles). The environmental refugees total could well double between 1995
    and 2010. Moreover, it could increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing
    numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on over-loaded environments.
    When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people
    overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts
    of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding.”

    Note that Myers is careful to use the term Environmental Refugees and he does not claim the 25 million such refugees in 1995 nor the 50 million refugees predicted for 2010 are a result of climate change. Apart from the reference in the above paragraph to ‘global warming’ he only mentions climate once stating “the recurrent droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa cannot all be blamed on climate.”

    It is clear the UN misinterpreted Myer’s paper and the map is a fabrication.

    The paper is still (at the time of writing) on line at:

    http://www.osce.org/eea/14851

  57. I have two points to make.

    First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.

    Second, research by the International Institute for Environment and Development in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania found no evidence that environmental degradation linked to climate change would result in large flows of international migrants.

  58. How long before we get a dumb climate scientist or UN official claiming reugees from Libya and other upsurging nations are attributed to Global Warming?

  59. A few other things gone by 2010

    Global warming will make climates disappear
    The Australian March 29, 2007
    “IF trends in global warming continue, South Australia’s climate would vanish by 2010, taking with it vulnerable plants and animals.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/global-warming-will-make-climates-disappear/story-e6frg6p6-1111113246153

    As the World gets hotter, will Britain get colder?
    The Guardian Thursday 21 June 2001
    “Glaciers in the tropical Andes and Africa are in retreat, and could disappear by 2010″

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2001/jun/21/globalwarming.physicalsciences

    4C: Beautiful One day
    ABC 4 Corners 22 April, 2002
    “Across the world, coral reefs are turning into marine deserts. It’s estimated that more than a quarter have been lost and that 40 per cent could be gone by 2010.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/archives/2002a_Monday22April2002.htm

  60. Two more climate refugees here. Alberta to Texas.

    If global warming won’t come to us….

  61. JDN

    That line form Sallust

    “..to hide one thing in their heart and have something else ready on their tongue”

    Such a fantastic and emotive way to put it. You can almost sense the fear and insecurity behind the image it conjures.

  62. Mike says:
    April 16, 2011 at 1:37 am
    I have two points to make.First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.

    Second, research by the International Institute for Environment and Development in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania found no evidence that environmental degradation linked to climate change would result in large flows of international migrants.
    —————————————————————————
    God Mike – this is a pretty desperate statement. 50m people migrating from disaster areas is kinda noticeable – even to people as blinkered as you seem to be.

    Douglas

  63. they left one important statement out the 50000000 where not fleeing global warming they where being shot at and being bombed

  64. GRID-Arendal certainly looks like UN to any casual visitor;

    http://www.grida.no/

    If you click About, look at the picture. Now you understand?

    Hopefully their offices are in the upper floors. Otherwise, I am sure they have their lifewests ready in case of an abrubt sea-level rise?

    I see they have links to lots of UN sponsored reports, books, whatever.

    Understandably I did not find this one;

    http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf

  65. A few points:

    UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.

    Here is a report rubbishing this nonsense up until the year 2050!

    http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10590IIED.pdf

    Get ready for more moving of goalposts as their predictions fail to materialise. Al Gore has already moved his goalposts for an ice-free Arctic by 2013 – an unlikely prospect. Get ready for Mark Serreze to move his death spiral. This nonsense is turning out to be a cat-and-mouse-game as they desperately struggle with observations.

  66. For Warmists who are concerned about coral island atolls sinking please calm down as there is no observed acceleration in the rate of sea level rise. Furthermore read how these islands have actually risen in the face of observed sea level rise.

    Bangladesh has gained landmass since 1943.

  67. Even the BBC know the islands, Tuvalu, etc are not sinking…

    BBC: Low-lying Pacific islands ‘growing not sinking’ – 3 June 2010 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679

    new geological study has shown that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking.

    The islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia are among those which have grown, because of coral debris and sediment.

    One of the authors of the study, featured in the magazine the New Scientist, predicts that the islands will still be there in 100 years’ time.

    However he says it is not clear whether many of them will be inhabitable.

    Prognosis ‘incorrect’

    In recent times, the inhabitants of many low-lying Pacific islands have come to fear their homelands being wiped off the map because of rising sea levels.

    But this study of 27 islands over the last 60 years suggests that most have remained stable, while some have actually grown.

    Using historical photographs and satellite imaging, the geologists found that 80% of the islands had either remained the same or got larger – in some cases, dramatically so.

    They say it is due to the build-up of coral debris and sediment, and to land reclamation.

    Associate Professor Paul Kench of Auckland University, who took part in the study, published in the journal Global and Planetary Change, says the islands are not in immediate danger of extinction.

    “That rather gloomy prognosis for these nations is incorrect,” he said.

  68. On the comments at the article someone pointed to the ‘original’ source of the claim.

    http://www.osce.org/eea/14851 [pdf]
    “As far back as 1995 (latest date for a comprehensive assessment), these environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and ethnic troubles). The environmental refugees total could well double between 1995 and 2010. Moreover, it could increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on over-loaded environments. When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding. “

    This is the result of excessive climate change research funding

  69. Article in the Guardian back in 2005 on the UN Report

    “Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade, experts warn today. Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn, said creeping environmental deterioration already displaced up to 10 million people a year, and the situation would get worse”.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/oct/12/naturaldisasters.climatechange1

  70. Cold Lynx: The answer to your question is pretty simple. AGW gives governments and groups like the UN more money and most importantly more power. AGW also gives certain global groups the opportunity to impose their sick ideologies onto everyone in the world.

  71. Dude, that map is so un-cool. It has “coastlines particularly under threat by extreme weather and greater surf” with a graphic that’s supposed to match up on the map where they are. But I can’t see anywhere on the map that matches the graphic. Where can I find the greater surf?

  72. Aside from the humour of this present instance, shouldn’t we begin to worry about a couple of things?

    The willingness of authorities to delete (or at least attempt to) inconvenient data at the drop of a hat; other ‘questionable’ data may be quietly disappearing before coming to the attention of AW’s beady eye.

    Now that Google is apparently becoming openly AGW partisan, suppose they join in this game? – I’ve no evidence they would, but then I had no reason to suspect sharp practice elsewhere either (except Email FOI requests, of course).

    Then there’s Donna F’s recent blog about Facebook blocking sceptic websites.

    It seems to me that there are not many rules observed by the AGW camp, over and above the routine smears.

  73. Mike says: “First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.”

    I guessing Mike you might be taking a slightly different tone had the censuses data showed any decline…

  74. Theo Goodwin says:
    April 15, 2011 at 8:35 pm

    What is the island nation that pulled the stunt of having a cabinet meeting underwater? Participants wore scuba gear.

    It was the Maldives. Here are some inconvenient points concerning the Maldives.

    They are planning a new airport (where do they get the building materials?)

    Non-climate related factors that can lead to sea water inundation, intrusion and erosion:
    Sand mining and gravel extraction for the construction industry
    Blasting boat passages
    Impacts of recreational divers
    Unsustainable over-extraction of fresh water from the lens
    Over fishing of beaked fish which create sand which is vital for island formation

    “Let me summarize a few facts.”

  75. Maybe they should start small; can they point to at least one “climate refugee”? And, would this “climate refugee” happen to be seeking “reparations”?

  76. Anthony:

    Great work…however, please don’t use “disappeared” and “rubbished” as verbs…makes this old man cringe…

  77. The claim that ‘the UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees’ is unsubstantiated. I am not able to identify any arguments in this blog post that supports the claim. (Imaginative, but unfounded, conspiracy theories concerning UNEP do not appeal to me; I prefer real arguments). What is the relevance of national censuses in small island states? Undoubtedly, natural disasters and environmental deterioration displaced people in 2010. This is true even if the refugees did not cross a national border.

    I wonder, how many people in Africa and Asia had to flee from untenable environmental conditions in 2010? I would not be surprised if 50 million climate refugees by 2010 is a gross underestimate.

  78. Just watch
    It will be said that the first 2010 figure was a ‘typo’, mistaking 2100 to be 2010. (just as the Himalayan glacier figure supposedly was a typo, printing 2035 instead of 2350, according to famous scienctist Spencer Weart).

    New research has shown this figure to be closer to 2050.

    And therefore, it is worse than we thought.

  79. The idea of a sixty-second general assembly seemed very attractive until i saw the hyphen. damned hyphen.

  80. Let us not forget the silly Guardian newspaper who used this 50 million refugees nonsense to back up their alarmism in 2005.

    Guardian – 12 October 2005
    50m environmental refugees by end of decade, UN warns
    · States urged to prepare for victims of climate change
    · Natural disasters displace more people than wars”

    “Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade, experts warn today. Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn, said creeping environmental deterioration already displaced up to 10 million people a year, and the situation would get worse.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/oct/12/naturaldisasters.climatechange1

    [My bold]

    Dr Richard Feynman – “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts.”

  81. In 2005 they predict 50 million by 2010 ie 10 million per year. Now in 2011 they predict 50 million by 2020. ie 5 million per year. So the UN predicts a 50% reduction in Global warming related migration over the next 10 years. Who needs a census it’s not as bad as they thought?

  82. I know this goes without saying, but while we’re cutting back funding for our domestic climate “products,” can we PLEASE defund the UN? PLEASE?!!

  83. Ed Dahlgren says:
    April 15, 2011 at 9:36 pm
    ……………………
    It looks to me like Nick Nuttall’s denial is fairly true. The data came from a paper from a (on the face of it) non-UN conference and was published by a non-UN organization.

    True but here are the linkages:

    As UNEP’s Key Polar Centre, we are involved with initiatives in the Polar Regions, and increasingly, we are broadening our focus on sustainable development of the oceans and coasts elsewhere in the world.

    As a UNEP affiliate and partner, we espouse core values that resonate with UNEP’s mission.

    http://www.grida.no/about/

    Disclaimer, copyright and usage conditions
    …………….
    - UNEP/GRID-Arendal is clearly credited in such use of the Materials as the source of the Materials.

    http://www.grida.no/general/2832.aspx

    So we can credit UNEP with their published materials?

  84. “Welcome to the United Nations: It’s Your World”
    “You are most welcome to provide us with your feedback and what you think we should improve…”
    contact form here:

    http://www.un.org/en/contactus/

    Now if 10 per cent of WUWT readers gave them feed back on this, there might actually be a crisis at the UN!

  85. @ Ed Dahlgren says:
    April 15, 2011 at 9:36 pm
    RE: Nick Nuttall & Grid Arendal

    On the other hand, the group certainly displays the UNEP logo. If the UN doesn’t like the connection, they know what to do about that.

    If the UN wishes to avoid criticism such as we’ve seen on this thread, they should not put their imprimatur on publications that originate from non-UN organizations without at least stating on the cover page that the publication is not a product of the UN, nor does the UN endorse it. For them to attempt to weasel out from under what is an obvious UN approved activity (and perhaps even funded by them), as Nick is obviously trying to do, merely makes them look foolish and arrogant.

  86. I’m thinking that in a couple years I may be one of the 50 million “climate refugees”….I live near the Great Lakes and these recent snowy winters may cause me to “migrate” further south.

    All this cold and snow is due to AGW………isn’t it??????

  87. I do know of many climate refugees in my own state of Wisconsin. They tend to flee the state for about 4-6 months to places like Florida, Texas and Arizona. I don’t think they are trying to escape global warming though.

    These people should not be confused with our 14 Democratic state senators who fled south to Illinois to prevent our legislature and governor from instituting more rational policies regarding public employee unions.

  88. See also Shiney Varghese, Women at the Center of Climate-friendly Approaches to Agriculture and Water Use, Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (2011), p. 3.

    PDF from indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/women at the centre_0.pdf—the map is on page 3.

  89. I disagree it is not the love of money, it is the love of power. The power to tell people what to do. If it were about money then they would be doing all they can to actually improve the economy. Instead the focus seems to be to destroy the economy. It is the politics of envy on steroids.

  90. bagtoter says:
    April 16, 2011 at 4:50 am
    “Great work…however, please don’t use “disappeared” and “rubbished” as verbs…makes this old man cringe…”

    Bagoter, ‘Disappear’ is a verb. What you mean is, ‘it is an intransitive verb’ (i.e. it cannot take an object). Thus the headline ‘The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees..’ is wrong and has an uneducated ring to it, even for Americans.

    Nice story though. As someone once said, “It’s dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future”. Because eventually the future becomes the past, and chickens come home to roost.
    As every prediction made by global warming alarmists turn out to be false it becomes clear this scare can only be maintained by dishonesty and ignorance

  91. Strange that they missed the Mississippi delta off that map, considering what happened to New Orleans from a sea level surge during Katrina.

  92. Ron Nichol says:
    April 15, 2011 at 6:49 pm
    Thank you so much. After climategate and countless other U.N. debunkings such as this one, I can’t believe the alarmists are still so influential.
    Has anyone else noticed that Zimbabwe signed onto Kyoto in 2009. Seeing as how Mugabe has destroyed that economy (thereby reducing CO2 production) he now stands to gain millions via Kyoto.
    ————————————————————————
    Not surprising, Mugabe received a standing ovation at the UN Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (not unusual for dictators such as Mugabe to be given a standing ovation at a UN conference!), and Kofi Annan was a major supporter of Mugabe’s ‘land reforms’ which has so trashed the Zimbabwean economy.

    The UN also liked to organize ‘fact-finding’ missions by US Democrats (the background of some of these guys is interesting in itself!) and their portrayal of the situation in Zimbabwe

    http://www.swradioafrica.com/Documents/zimtripreport.htm

    is very different from the reality as shown in the documentary “Mugabe and the White African” and testified to by many of my Zimbabwean contacts.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/politics-obituaries/8439131/Mike-Campbell.html

    White africans are not the only victims

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1099467/Mugabes-genocide-The-images-despair-reveal-horror-Zimbabwe.html

    The UN has much to answer for is assisting Mugabe in his policy of ‘land reforms’.

  93. Mike says:
    April 16, 2011 at 1:37 am
    I have two points to make.

    Which both appear to have missed the point entirely.

    If a person can’t even accept that there are some real nut jobs on his side of the debate, what chance does he have of ever finding the truth. Trying to defend this blatant propaganda only makes one look foolish.

  94. Every January and February there is a huge climate refugee flood from Ontario Canada to Florida.

  95. Another link to the map is here:

    http://probeinternational.org/library/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Disappearing-islands.pdf

    And an interesting article about disappearing islands here:

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/14/lawrence-solomon-search-is-on-for-the-island-of-palau-lost-in-the-pacific/

    The origin of the map is:
    Sources: Norman Myers, “Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue”, 13. Economic
    forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007.
    Map by Emmanuelle Bournay, “Atlas environnement 2007 du Monde diplomatique”, Paris. Reproduced with permission from Le Monde diplomatique.

  96. I can raise that fifty million to 100 million:-

    Mike Gill, Fiona Godlee, Richard Horton & Robin Stott, “Doctors and climate change”, BMJ, 2007, December 1; 335 (7630): 1104–05:

    The impact of climate change will get much worse, and predictions of a hundred million climate refugees is no longer fanciful. Health professionals must show leadership in tackling the potentially catastrophic effects of climate change.

    Wait, I can raise that 100 million to 212 million:-
    Frank Biermann & and Ingrid Boas, “Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees”, Global Environmental Politics, February 2010, Vol. 10, No. 1: 60-88 [citing Stern citing Myers].

    The Stern Review on the economics of climate change,
    Part II: The Impacts of Climate Change on Growth and Development,
    Chapter 3, “How climate change will affect people around the world”, p. 77:

    Today, almost as many people are forced to leave their homes because of environmental disasters and natural resource scarcity as flee political oppression, religious persecution and ethnic troubles (25 million compared with 27 million). Estimates in this area, however, are still problematic. Norman Myers uses conservative assumptions and calculates that climate change could lead to as many as 150 – 200 million environmental refugees by the middle of the century (2% of projected population). This estimate has not been rigorously tested, but it remains in line with the evidence presented throughout this chapter that climate change will lead to hundreds of millions more people without sufficient water or food to survive or threatened by dangerous floods and increased disease.

  97. Richard says:
    Dude, that map is so un-cool. It has “coastlines particularly under threat by extreme weather and greater surf” with a graphic that’s supposed to match up on the map where they are. But I can’t see anywhere on the map that matches the graphic. Where can I find the greater surf?

    Richard, look more closely and you will notice that the specific graphic matches ALL the coastlines for every continent. Either its worse than we thought, or the graphic guy made a boo-boo.

  98. Here is another example of total bunk by opportunist author Gwynne Dyer. His books
    “Climate Wars” is an apocalyptic prediction of mass immigration due to globull warming.

  99. Mike says:
    “First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.”
    —————————————————-
    #1 If you have the same or greater number of people immigrating into an area than you have emigrating from that area you have no net emigration (i.e. no refugees form that area). Also what would be the puropose of making an issue out of it if you expect the population to grow anyway.

    #2 If the “climate” is causing people to flee an area would it not also dissuade people from moving into that area?

    #3 If people are leaving an area en masse the birth rate should go down. Once again if the birth rate exceeds the rate of emigration by a sufficient margin to have net substantial increases in population what is the point in being alarmist anout it?

  100. John Garrett at 8:03 pm: “somebody’s never laid eyes on St. Lucia. If that’s their idea of a low-lying island”

    I recall driving east out of the capital city of Castries on its really terrifying near-vertical city roads, and of course I eventually had a little fender bender about 3/4 of the way up the hill. Parking there to examine the (very minor) damage was actually more worrisome than the drive itself. I was very concerned that the brakes might fail and the car plummet backwards down the fill.

    Certainly the phrase “low-lying” did not come to mind.

    As for the Vietnam Mekong, I suppose no one at UNEP has considered that the Delta is a natural floodplain which makes it one of the most fertile agricultural areas in the world and the unquestioned rice-basket of Vietnam, and there is no evidence of any kind whatsoever that local water levels have increased or decreased even a single scintilla in the last 7 to 9 decades.

    Of course that’s merely empirical observed data from people who actually live at the edge of the river, i.e. my wife’s parents and family in Long Xuyen.

    Also, doesn’t this prediction conflict with the alleged Mekong Delta droughts and water shortages that were widely touted last year due to Himalayan glacial melts and similar upstream catastrophes?

  101. Best course of action to fix the problem:

    Frank K. says: April 16, 2011 at 5:21 am

    I know this goes without saying, but while we’re cutting back funding for our domestic climate “products,” can we PLEASE defund the UN? PLEASE?!!

    Can’t we just stop paying for this stupidity? Jimbo identified the source of the problem:

    Jimbo says: April 16, 2011 at 4:00 am
    [...]
    “This is the result of excessive climate change research funding”

  102. Actually, as hilarious as that map is, it doesn’t predict anything specific. It just shows areas that “will be exposed to more worser xxxx” in what appear to be random crayola marks filled in. The map itself can’t be used to say whether or not refugees should have come from various places. The places they picked for hurricane exposure are both meaningless and impossible to prove wrong. Certainly in the span of time since this map was made, someone from Florida moved to CA or Arizona because they didn’t like hurricanes, but this has nothing to do with anything man has done other than move ourselves into hurricane exposure zones without proper building codes. The map itself is ironically not what the UN should be ashamed of. They should be ashamed of trying to hide the map, it makes them look like idiots. I realize that’s like a pigeon dropping on an elephant pile, but the principle is still there.

    I followed that link someone posted to the Randi.org message board where apparently this original issue came out. There’s some very ripe low-hanging fruit over there. There’s a guy who considers this a “conservative” blog of “agw deniers” while trying to point to the original paper and say that “this wasn’t an AGW prediction.” and “it came true.”

    What’s interesting to me, is the original paper has no citations whatsoever for their numbers of 25 million refugees. Can anyone prove me wrong on that point? I see no references whatsoever in the original paper to any sort of census/study/body-count indicating 25 million existing climate refugees in 1995.

  103. ‘I would not be surprised if 50 million climate refugees by 2010 is a gross underestimate.’~ montag

    Did you miss 2010? We’re in 2011. And the simple fact that pro-AGW blogs are noting this and complaining about, is substatiation enough that the UN and / or google have been working overtime to CYA.

  104. Mark Twain said “some of the worst things in my life never happened”. He also said “if you tell the truth you don’t have to remember anything”.

    The global warming crowd could learn a lot from reading Mark Twain.

  105. On the day of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami, both the main TV news channels in the UK (BBC and ITV) gave us the line, “The tsunami is expected to hit low-lying Pacific islands which have already been affected by climate change”.

    It would appear that the mainstream media have moved on from showing us dubious evidence of the so-called effects of climate change and now clearly believe that including near-subliminal propaganda messages in their narrative is OK whenever the opportunity presents itself.

  106. To my knowledge, most climate refugees tend to move not out of, but into small tropic islands. I’m considering becoming a climate refugee myself as this year we still had some snow in April – something I hadn’t seen in more than twenty years.

    /nosarc, really. :)

  107. Re: Is it power, money, or both? Don’t know. But it is interesting that deposed (and disposed) leaders who held such power had bank accounts outside their homeland.

  108. John K. Sutherland says:
    April 16, 2011 at 6:44 am

    “Strange that they missed the Mississippi delta off that map, considering what happened to New Orleans from a sea level surge during Katrina.”

    No sea surge in N.O., just poorly maintained levees holding back canals. It was fresh water that inundated the city. Not that anyone in the UN actually cared about N.O.

  109. More UN and other scaremoner involvement spreading thi scare story:

    “According to a report published by the United Nations University, there are now about 19.2 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern”-that is, people likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. This figure is predicted to grow to about 50 million by the end of the year 2010. ”
    UNEP

    “……..experts expect up to 50 million environmentally induced migrants by the year 2010 and that some predict up to 647 million by the year 2050. ”
    United Nations University

  110. Back in 1989 the UNEP made another 10-year forecast of climate refugees:

    GRIM FORECAST

    http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=SJ&s_site=mercurynews&p_multi=SJ&p_theme=realcities&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=0EB7304FF9A84273&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM

    A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect…

  111. For those saying that UNEP was not responsible here is the UNITED NATIONS itself referring to UNEP’s 50 million figure.

    “……people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.”
    UN News Centre

  112. Bomber_the_Cat says:
    April 16, 2011 at 6:40 am

    bagtoter says:
    April 16, 2011 at 4:50 am
    “Great work…however, please don’t use “disappeared” and “rubbished” as verbs…makes this old man cringe…”

    Bagoter, ‘Disappear’ is a verb. What you mean is, ‘it is an intransitive verb’ (i.e. it cannot take an object). Thus the headline ‘The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees..’ is wrong and has an uneducated ring to it, even for Americans.
    ===================================================

    Sorry to disagree, but colloquialisms and idiomatic slang has been used to convey thoughts for quite some time and isn’t unique to “Americans”, though we put it to good use. Shakespeare was probably the best at using this form of communication. But many writers throughout history has used this. “Disappeared” itself is a loose reference to the Orwellian nature of this story, and I find it quite apt.

  113. Oululainen says:
    April 16, 2011 at 12:35 am
    “Oulu is marked as an area that is vulnerable to ice and permafrost melting. I can assure you, there is no permafrost here, nor can permafrost be found for several hundred kilometers to the north.”

    See??? AGW already made your permafrost disappear! That’s how strong it is! Thinking about it, i have no permafrost here in Braunschweig, Germany, and i’m sure there must have been permafrost about 15,000 years ago or so… Oh no! We’re lost!
    ;-)

  114. I thought that these idiots at the UN had learned to only make predictions that had an out turn date when they’ll be dead!

    Didn’t they learn from Paul Ehrlich?

  115. This is the same thing that Paul Ehrlich has been doing for decades: being incredibly and demonstrably wrong about future predictions of global apocalypse. But somehow he never gets called to task for it, rather he is a well regarded academic.

    Where is Julian Simon when you need him?

  116. Curiousgeorge says:
    April 15, 2011 at 7:37 pm
    “I read Gavins blog and one of the replies is from Nick Nuttall who denies the UN ever said any such thing. Who ya’ gonna believe, Nickie or your lying eyes?

    #

    …] happened to the climate refugees? What happened to the climate refugees? [...]
    #
    Nick Nuttall

    Dear Gavin, I read with interest your bog not least as Spokesperson for the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).”

    Jimbo says:
    April 16, 2011 at 8:46 am
    “For those saying that UNEP was not responsible here is the UNITED NATIONS itself referring to UNEP’s 50 million figure.

    “……people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.”
    UN News Centre”

    So they’ve been caught doing a Winston Smith AND denying they did it. Gets better by the minute. Can we name the unit for ineptitude “One UNEP” now? ;-)

  117. I wonder what the rationale is behind UNEP GRIDA’s reasons for hindering internet archive to archive their webpages since 2009. They are living on other peoples tax money so they should be like an open book, especially since they want other organizations and countries to be transparent.

  118. This has inspired me to invent a game called “Spin the Climate”. At least six players. The first player picks up an “Empirical Evidence card”. Reads it and then has to “spin” the contents into a “Global Warming Story”. The four players to the left (called “The Team”; the members designated “JH” “P” “K1” “K2” ) award wind turbine points, up to 500 per story. If you get less than 1000 points in your turn you have to pick up a “climate spin consequence card” and perform the consequence, such as stand up to your neck in a barrel of water if it is a “rising sea level card” or stick your head in the freezer for a “loss of arctic ice card” You don’t need or want to know what a “release of methane from melting permafrost card” has you doing.When you get 10,000 wind turbine points you exchange them for a conventional power station point. The first player to have enough power stations to provide sufficient power for the country they live in wins. The player with the fewest points gets them converted back into turbines and gets to live out their life in the dark.

  119. I am sure it’s in here somewhere but I am too tired to read through all 141 comments, I stopped after fifty.

    It looks like the usual problem & solution, failed prediction, in timescale predicted. Therefore simply use the same number & double the timescale! That way they can go back to the old secondhand car salesman routine, we must act now or it’ll be too late!! Scary story, scary story!

  120. Can you I suggest that you all read the original article quoted in support of the map.

    http://www.osce.org/eea/14851

    If Myers had written “If global warming kicks in…” rather than “When…” there is little in the paper that even the most sceptical Watts supporter could disagree with. What it does is expose a real problem – due to population increase and land degradation people are being forced to move home. What the climate change lobby has done here, as so often elsewhere, is misuse the facts to divert funds from solving the real problem to feather their own comfortable nests.

  121. “they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN”

    MORE distrust? Is that even possible?

  122. The problem with making predictions is that they will soon be tested.

    Independent 27 June 2008
    “It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.”

    BBC – 12 December 2007

    Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′
    “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

  123. The quality of UN forecast is breathtaking.
    Having such experts and specialists, mankind doesn’t need floods and hurricanes and droughts anymore. It’s already bad enough.
    How to uncover such stupidity and primitive manipulation?
    The MSM won’t do their job.

    Great work, thanks.

  124. What needs to go down the memory hole is the entire UN conglomerate. That corrupt bunch of global teat-suckers has wreaked more economic and political havoc on the planet than 10,000 years of “global warming”.

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  126. April 1, 2010
    “My fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.”

    Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) is worried about Guam, and, oh, is he getting mocked for stupidity.
    althouse blogspot

    He is 2 tacos short of a combo platter.

  127. @Montag says: April 16, 2011 at 4:50 am
    “The claim that ‘the UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees’ is unsubstantiated.”
    - No it isn’t, Anthony presents absolutely clear evidence that this is precisely what the UN has done. And then they had the bare faced cheek to run the same scare story again but adding ten years to the end date.

    “I am not able to identify any arguments in this blog post that supports the claim.”
    - Perhaps you didn’t read it?

    “(Imaginative, but unfounded, conspiracy theories concerning UNEP do not appeal to me; I prefer real arguments).”
    - Really? Check out:-

    http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/cognitive_dissonance.htm

    “What is the relevance of national censuses in small island states?”
    - Well, when the UNEP identifies areas that are especially “vulnerable” but populations have actually increased, how do you explain it? Immigrating suicidal masochists?

    “Undoubtedly, natural disasters and environmental deterioration displaced people in 2010. This is true even if the refugees did not cross a national border.”

    - We’re not talking about “natural disasters”. There have always been “natural disasters”. The claim was (and has now been regurgitated as) 50 Million CLIMATE refugees. Of which there is absolutely no sign whatever. And I doubt even the UN being able to hide 50 Million people.

    “I wonder, how many people in Africa and Asia had to flee from untenable environmental conditions in 2010?”
    - None?

    “I would not be surprised if 50 million climate refugees by 2010 is a gross underestimate.”
    - And I wouldn’t be surprised, “Montag”, if you were either riding on this pathetic gravy train or perhaps had been smoking way too much funny substances. You think there have been far more than 50 Million climate refugees? Really? Name five! Give proof of the existence of five.
    And whilst you are about it, demonstrate that the reason they became “climate refugees” was attributable to anthropogenic global warming. Without using a “computer model”.

    I prefer real evidence!

  128. I followed some of Jimbo’s links. It was interesting at this UN site, that predicted 50 million refugees.

    http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=538&ArticleID=5842&l=en

    Because, at the bottom, was Nick Nuttall. The same name as the poster at Gavin’s site, who denied the UN made this prediction.


    For more information, please contact:

    Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson, Office of the Executive Director, on Tel: +254 20 762 3084; Mobile: 254 733 632 755 or when traveling +41 795 965 737; E-mail: nick.nuttall@xxxxx.xxx

    Nick forgot, but the internet never does. Sad, really.

  129. Taphonomic says:
    April 16, 2011 at 9:10 am
    This is the same thing that Paul Ehrlich has been doing for decades: being incredibly and demonstrably wrong about future predictions of global apocalypse. But somehow he never gets called to task for it, rather he is a well regarded academic.

    Where is Julian Simon when you need him?

    Dead, alas.

    Erlich’s foolishness did have real world consequences once. You can read about his bet with Simon here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager

    Yet being proven wrong didn’t slow him down a bit. In theology, this phenomenon is known as “invincible ignorance”. The incapacity to admit one is wrong despite overwhelming evidence. Hmmmm, sounds like the warmanistas in general.

  130. UNEP was right, folks : english climatic refugees are so numerous here, in France, since several years. We understand. Hé, hé….

  131. I just told my wife this story and she came up with a classic:

    “Are they now trying to hide the incline?” (in population numbers)

  132. I trust their is a catalogue of predictions over the past 30 years that we can comment on as their due dates pass. I think it would be a good post to present the current list of failed predictions, particularly those that even went the other way. Also, we must keep up the story as a global warming one – I have had students and others argue with me that it’s climate change. I always ask then if global warming is no longer a worry. I also always ask if their confidence and certainty are as high today as they were 10 years ago in light of these shifts and failures of predictions.

  133. Les Johnson says:
    April 16, 2011 at 9:55 am

    I followed some of Jimbo’s links. It was interesting at this UN site, that predicted 50 million refugees.

    http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=538&ArticleID=5842&l=en

    Because, at the bottom, was Nick Nuttall. The same name as the poster at Gavin’s site, who denied the UN made this prediction.

    For more information, please contact:

    Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson, Office of the Executive Director, on Tel: +254 20 762 3084; Mobile: 254 733 632 755 or when traveling +41 795 965 737; E-mail: nick.nuttall@xxxxx.xxx

    Nick forgot, but the internet never does. Sad, really.
    ============================================

    Just a few observations.
    First, kudos to Les and Jimbo and Curiousgeorge.
    Second……….Shame on you Nicky. Sadly, this is an all-too-familiar routine with you guys. Keep digging.

    Third, I couldn’t help but chuckle at someone’s refusal to post the e-mail addy but has no qualms with posting the phone numbers. I thought it a bit humorous.

  134. This migration is not due to so-called global warming but people simply packing their bags and leaving unstable dictatorships. The solution is less government and more individual freedom and capitalism, not more taxes designed to mooch and loot the actual producers of wealth.

    We all have an obligation to ensure that we pay as little taxes as possible to governments in order to stop funding these lies. The only way to kill these statist ideas from spreading is to starve them of funding.

  135. The AWG bureaucracy is setting up to dish out a $100 billion a year to corrupt third world governments, by 2010. Cushy AWG jobs for the fund administrators. The problem is AWG taxation and waste, not global warming. The donor countries have massive debits, no funds to waste.

    The third world countries need outside intervention and programs to address and break fundamental corruption. Throwing more money at the problem will not solve the problem. Corrupt examples are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Nigeria.
    It appears the science (the feedback response to a change in forcing is negative, not positive), the facts on the ground (global temperature has stopped rising, sea level has stopped rising), and third world political reality are irrelevant to the AWG movement. They have created a fantasy paradigm, a ruse.

    Fortunately we live in a democracy. The solution is political action. Enough is enough. There are real problems that governments need to address.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110415/sc_afp/unclimatewarming_20110415141340

    “PARIS (AFP) – A planned fund to channel hundreds of billions of dollars to poor countries exposed to climate change has overcome an early obstacle, the UN said on Friday.

    Members of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed on the make-up of a 40-seat transitional committee to design the Green Climate Fund (GCF), an issue that had been debated for weeks, the UNFCCC said.
    Established at the UNFCCC’s conference in Cancun last December, the GCF aims at administering aid, potentially worth 100 billion dollars a year by 2020, to developing countries at risk from rising seas, worsening drought, flood and storms.”

  136. We’ve had mass, uncontrolled immigration here in the UK since 1980, when AGW was invented, thus proving that the politico-science of AGW is settled. I’ve got an each-way bet on 2030, 2040 and 2050 as the likely critical tipping points for mass worldwide immigration.

  137. Jimbo says:
    April 16, 2011 at 4:44 am
    Theo Goodwin says:
    April 15, 2011 at 8:35 pm

    What is the island nation that pulled the stunt of having a cabinet meeting underwater? Participants wore scuba gear.

    “It was the Maldives. Here are some inconvenient points concerning the Maldives.
    They are planning a new airport (where do they get the building materials?)”

    I take it that the new airport will be for seaplanes only. Or maybe holding meetings under water just causes more confusion?

    Anyone who sees the behavior of the people engaging in this stunt in the Maldives and does not immediately think “SCAM, BIG TIME SCAM,” either continues to get his diaper changed by his mother or runs to mom and tells her about this great idea for supporting the CAGW SCAM. (Seriously, the people who undertook this little promotion have no concept of the sophistication in business and economics that is required of the average American who wants to move forward in life.) Remember, always ask about changes in local house prices.

    Anthony, thanks for finding the Maldive stunt on the web.

  138. Ron Manley says:
    April 16, 2011 at 9:22 am
    Can you I suggest that you all read the original article quoted in support of the map.
    http://www.osce.org/eea/14851. “If Myers had written “If global warming kicks in…” rather than “When…” there is little in the paper that even the most sceptical Watts supporter could disagree with. What it does is expose a real problem – due to population increase and land degradation people are being forced to move home. What the climate change lobby has done here, as so often elsewhere, is misuse the facts to divert funds from solving the real problem to feather their own comfortable nests.”

    Well, how about that? Change just a few words in one sentence and something commonplace becomes an outrageous lie! Who woulda thought it?! Ron, you are one sigh from becoming a hardcore, communist Warmista.

  139. Good find, Les Johnson.
    Now if Montag can tell us where these 50 million (gross underestimate) climate refugees are, we can wrap this thing up.

  140. Look folks, it’s all very simple. Ten years go these small islands had a lot of people standing in the water, hence when the census was taken they were not precisely “on the island”.
    In 2010, these people had clearly got out and were wandering about looking for their towels. Hence they were included in that year’s census figure.

  141. I intend becoming a climate refugee later this year – I find the overwhelming climate nonsense from the BBC and most politicians in the UK with the exception of Graham Stringer and a couple of others so irritating and, as it’s not my country, I can’t say too much without seeming ungracious to my hosts that I am returning to New Zealand. I know we have similar problems there but I will feel comfortable saying and doing something about it as I belong there.

  142. That map strikes me as being as accurate as the one we saw a few weeks ago…showing the South West of Western Australia as being in the Tropics!

  143. The book of lies becomes thinker and thicker.
    The book will end when all the UN IPCC claims have been outlived by the facts.
    Not a single claim will survive.

  144. Barry Woods says: April 16, 2011 at 3:57 am
    Even the BBC know the islands, Tuvalu, etc are not sinking…

    BBC: Low-lying Pacific islands ‘growing not sinking’ – 3 June 2010 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679

    new geological study has shown that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking.

    The islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia are among those which have grown, because of coral debris and sediment.
    —————————————————————————-
    Yes Barry, that is true. The migration that IS occurring in these areas is due to economic problems – and the adverse effects of economic globalisation. Hence these Pacific Island dwellers are more likely to migrate to such places as Australia and New Zealand for work and a better standard of living. They are abandoning their home states for these reasons. At the same time N.Zers are migrating to Australia and the UK for the same reasons. It is like an economic form of osmosis. There is an accelerating ‘churn’ going on.

    Douglas

  145. To Bomber_ the _Cat and James Sexton…whether the use of “disappeared” and “rubbished” in the context of this article is accurately categorized as colloquially(sp?) proper or gramatically incorrect, it qualifies as awkward reading. More importantly, I think that both anal retentive grammar hounds and readers of Shakespeare would agree that this is a very valuable article.

  146. Barbara Skolaut says:
    April 16, 2011 at 9:32 am

    “they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN”

    MORE distrust? Is that even possible?

    It isn’t possible. It’s like trying to bring more respect to the gang at RealClimate…

  147. I feel really bad for the people that will have to file all those missing person reports…

    Have you seen this person? This person is a missing climate change refugee and has been missing since 2010. Please contact local authorities if you know the whereabouts of this person.

  148. By 2020, the UN’s estimated 10-year prediction of climate refugees will reach 400 million.

    No actual climate refugees are available for comment, though some weather refugees expressed confusion at the results of the study.

  149. Unfortunately, all this will do is teach the warmists not to produce falsifiable “predictions” and instead concentrate on pure propaganda and fear mongering.

  150. I note that Maui has the “small islands (some may disappear completely) ” legend on it. Perhaps they didn’t notice the 10,000 foot tall volcano.

  151. This map shows Darwin, Australia as at risk of desertification. We have just had our wettest ever wet season – with more than 3 metres of rain. We are considering becoming climate refugees to get away from the mould!

  152. I don’t know about these things. Is ‘Google Cache’ anything to do with Google? If so will Google start deleting things in the Google Cache if it finds them – how shall I say? – inconvenient?

  153. John Garrett says:
    April 15, 2011 at 8:03 pm

    “I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that somebody’s never laid eyes on St. Lucia. If that’s their idea of a low-lying island, they probably think the Himalayas are a set of modest hills.”

    Apparently all of Madagascar is only 3mm above MSL too. Who’d have thought!

  154. HuffPuff, of course, has reported this verbatim. The comments section is where the real hilarity ensues. One, calling himself “dragonmaster” (sheesh, I wonder how he spent his teenage years), a “HuffPost Super User” (I think that means you’re a really super guy and right on message about everything) confidently predicts that the Artic will be ice-free by 2012, we’re all doomed, Odin will display his righteous wrath etc. etc. (and he’s one of the moderates – he has hundreds of fans).

    I’ve always wondered why the instinctual doom-laden hyperbole of adolescence that we all suffer manages to stay with those of a certain disposition. They’ve been well educated (in the main), seem to have good jobs and converse in a reasonably coherent manner, yet remain steadfastly stuck in an arrested adolescence of self-pity and hyperactive woe, making risibly absurd predictions about the near future (until it all goes quiet)…strange.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/22/environmental-refugees-50_n_826488.html

  155. Pirran says:
    April 16, 2011 at 2:01 pm

    It is impossible to comment on huffpuff, no matter how careful you are in your statements. It is all censored away.

  156. noel says:
    “I’ve got “notify me of follow-up comments via email” checked, so I shouldn’t miss the winner.”

    Oddly, that emails you a notification of your own post, not any that follow.

  157. Jimmy Haigh says:
    April 16, 2011 at 1:58 pm
    “I don’t know about these things. Is ‘Google Cache’ anything to do with Google? If so will Google start deleting things in the Google Cache if it finds them – how shall I say? – inconvenient?”

    A search engine makes a temporary copy of websites it scans. This is the cache of the search engine. Google allows to peek into this cached copy. The cached content will stay there until Google’s web crawlers scan the same website again, and then it will be replaced by a new copy.

  158. Personally I think the phrase “another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality” is stylish and well put.

  159. They never learn; the cover-up is always worse than the original crime. But, just making statements that fearful disaster will happen in 10 years time is so laughable. I’d like to see Professor Tirado’s response …. crickets?

  160. The end of the world is always nigh. People who proclaim it must hope the claim is forgotten when it doesn’t occur.

  161. Ummm.. The EU just declared that Europe needs 50 million migrants to make up for native Euro low birthrate population decline problems.

    those climate refugees will be invited to migrate and be counted as climate refugees whether we like it or not. The EU is onside of the UN when it comes to obliterating individuals nationalities any way they can.
    And just think, nobody can stop the ruling class from doing it.

    As long as this heinous march toward world rule by elites continues, the predictions made by the UN will come true and the children of the New World Order will learn that the UN is always correct.

  162. jackie,

    Thanks for posting that deceptive U. of East Anglia graph. They used a fictitious zero trend line, which makes viewers believe the planet is suddenly heating up.

    The planet is naturally warming, but the trend goes back to the LIA, and it doesn’t change when CO2 suddenly rises after 1940. This graph shows how the UEA charlatans are deliberately deceiving the public.

  163. .
    .
    Slacko says:
    April 16, 2011 at 2:18 pm

    noel says:
    “I’ve got “notify me of follow-up comments via email” checked, so I shouldn’t miss the winner.”

    Oddly, that emails you a notification of your own post, not any that follow.

    ———————————

    It works fine for me. No winner yet!
    .
    .

  164. My final comment (I think) Warmist organisations say whatever they want confident in the fact that most politicians and the media are on their side. They only highlight incidents that back their claims and ignore contrarian evidence. One thing that is causing them big problems is a cooling world and an Arctic that has so far refused to be ice-free. Not to mention the return of cold and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, booming ski resorts, rising coral island atolls, greening biosphere, ………………………………………………..

  165. Ha Ha Ha you have all been double duped-fallen for the trick and no treat- you think you are so smart to find an obvious fault and can say ah ha I gottcha but he who laughs last laughs loudest. If they say one thing and then you are able to easily prove another then you think the first is false by the formers own findings but there in lies the trick. The warmer weather is real =the stronger storms are real – the rising water is real- the drought is real- the colder winter is real- it is all very real but instead of looking out your very own windows you see through the eyes of one that has been twice fooled so he knows not the truth nor can he think to prepare for it’s coming and even when he does see it, still he believes in the double blinded lie and refuses to accept it. God himself has foretold it’s truth in saying that man will die in his own pollution and in saying that the day comes when men will faint because of the heat of the sun and will look up and curse God because of the heat of the day. Do your own study and look at how we have changed the patterns of the winds and the rains, look for yourself and see how much less oxygen is in the air you breath now as to compared to 2000 years ago and 1000 years and now even faster we deplete the very essence of all life, the very air we all need. You laugh at 2.7 inches of rising in the sea level in a mere 22 years? , thats really quite a lot when you think how little real rising it takes- thats 5.4 in only 44 years and 10.8 in only 88 years and thats assuming that the rate progresses at the same pace which surely it will not as each degree of heat will speed the progression. You may laugh now but your kids wont thank you for it later and your grand children will curse you for it 100 years from now!

  166. Quote from David Suzuki not sure of the date –

    “Education has failed in a very serious way to convey the most important lesson science can teach: skepticism”

  167. rp says:
    April 16, 2011 at 4:53 pm
    —————————————————-
    Hey rp – you forgot the toads, frogs and the locusts.

    Cheers
    Douglas

  168. rp says:

    “The warmer weather is real =the stronger storms are real – the rising water is real- the drought is real- the colder winter is real- it is all very real but instead…” & etc, etc.

    I’m willing to bet that faced with verifiable facts that debunk rp’s beliefs, rp will continue to believe that hurricanes, floods and tornadoes are getting stronger and more numerous, that more people are dying from natural disasters, etc. Let’s do an experiment, OK?… OK:

    click1
    click2
    click3
    click4
    click5
    click6
    click7

    The belief that hurricanes, tornadoes and floods are getting worse is contradicted by empirical evidence. Will the real world evidence convince rp? I suspect not. Once cognitive dissonance takes hold, reason flies out the window.

  169. wsbriggs April 16, 2011 at 8:18 am :

    No sea surge in N.O., just poorly maintained levees holding back canals. It was fresh water that inundated the city. Not that anyone in the UN actually cared about N.O.

    Au contraire; Google search: new orleans storm surge hurricane pressure including returns from Wiki and the nhc.noaa.gov …

    .

  170. rp says:
    April 16, 2011 at 4:53 pm
    “Do your own study and look at how we have changed the patterns of the winds and the rains, look for yourself and see how much less oxygen is in the air you breath now as to compared to 2000 years ago and 1000 years and now even faster we deplete the very essence of all life, the very air we all need”

    That’s a new one. Ok, CO2 has risen by 40% to a whopping 0.039%; took us 50 years; so how long will it take to deplete the 20% of oxygen… let’s see… say 100 ppm or 0.01% per 50 years… that makes 2000*50 years. IOW 100,000 years. Ignoring the fact that there’s not enough carbon-containing fuel to achieve that. Say, are you a huffPo SuperUser?

  171. rp,
    “…look for yourself and see how much less oxygen is in the air you breath now as to compared to 2000 years ago and 1000 years and now even faster we deplete the very essence of all life, ”

    Assuming that there is significantly less oxygen in the atmosphere than there was 1000 & 2000 years ago, which is doubtful at best, what was man doing that “polluted” the air 1000 & 2000 years ago?

  172. I am an AGW Climate Change Refugee!

    Everyone has been wondering where they are, so let me present my tale thus:

    For twenty or more years, we lived peacefully and happily in the prosperous and intellectually stimulating town of Palo Alto, CA. Toward the end, when nothing was rising except property values and Google stock, we attended lectures by a then-unknown Steve Schneider who electrified crowds with the coming disaster brought about by our human folly. Palo Alto, in its civic and governmental life, became officially “Green,” a beacon for the restitution of the sins of the world.

    Then unto Palo Alto came a sign – in the form of the great El Nino year of, what was it, 2007? The rains came, and for a few days, combined with high tides. Now, much of Palo Alto, including our (former) house, is located in a broad, gently sloping flood plain leading to San Francisco Bay. The waters rose, no more than a couple of feet, and pushed inland almost a mile to within four blocks of our very own house. The city government thoughtfully prepared by opening a sandbag station, but not wanting such ugliness to intrude on the commercial or residential districts, located it in on a point near the bay, where it was inconveniently under water when it was needed, but I digress.

    In a civically active city like Palo Alto, anything that represents any possible deviation from the norm, must be addressed by legislation. Thus, all the areas reached by the “high water” even if only two or three inches, were now included in the “Flood Zone” zoning designation, with additional caveats to protect the residents, to wit, no flood insurance possible, and any “major” remodeling (like updating a bathroom) required the homeowner to RAISE their entire residence by three feet.

    Needless to say, this had a deleterious effect on property values in the Flood Zone, which now passed within three blocks of our very own residence, reducing them by 25-40%.

    With the AGW mania in full fledge (and warned by our friend David Evans about the hanky panky), we knew it was only a matter of time before some overenthusiastic bureaucrat would get a jump on the “coming” sea level rise and preemptively rezone the Flood Zone to include our own house – potentially lopping more than $500,000 from its value (yes the prices were and are crazy, thanks to the influx of Chinese money supporting PhD students at Stanford).

    So we bailed – moving to Panama, as close to the equator as possible and 4000 feet up a mountain. Now we live literally in the Earth’s thermostat (Willis you are right), exquisitely sensitive to the vagaries of El Nino and La Nina, a dry year yielding only 200 inches of rain, but when serious cooling is needed, more than 300 inches. The ITCZ winds like a snake, north of us, over our heads, and south, creating the most interesting and informative weather I have experienced anywhere on this earth.

    I have said before and say now, to really understand Earth’s climate, we need well supported observatories at the equator – and Panama is the prime location, being located on a knife edge between the Eastern Pacific and the Western Atlantic. Visitors are welcome…

  173. A while ago I checked temperatures on a website from an app that is linked to Microsoft. The site showed temps and lows that the other sites claimed were really “warm” that day, and during the “hottest year on record” last year it showed several lows set in early July and less highs than the other stations recorded here. Mysteriously, after the summer ended, the app sent me to a different website and searching for that one found no results.

    I suppose with AGW theory you’re right or you just delete the evidence to the contrary.

  174. To a religious person or ideologue, reality that contradicts their beliefs represents an opportunity to strengthen their faith.

    I get that if you become emotionally bound to an idea or faith, you have to do this if you want to maintain your belief. I don’t get why people who claim to value empirical knowledge do it.

  175. Lol !! Must you shine the the blinding light of truth on these attempts to hide the Incline?

    Cant the UN be allowed to quietly sweep 50 million people under the carpet?

  176. More ‘disappeared’ documents:

    From Gavin Atkins site:

    http://asiancorrespondent.com/7762/goalposts-moved/

    I tried to follow the given link to Oxfam, which claims 75 million refugees by 2050. This is in the context of Pacific Islands, which has a population of about 6 million, as Gavin points outs.

    http://www.oxfam.org.au/campaigns/climate-change/docs/The-future-is-here-final-report.pdf

    No error message there, but no report either. So I did a site search for the report name, and lo and behold, it is still there.

    http://www.oxfam.org.au/media/releases/campaigns-and-advocacy?p=1867

    And yep, 75 million by 2050. Out of a population of 6 million. Neat trick. Its much better than the disappearing trick that seems in vogue on these sites.

    (and yes, his wording indicates the Asia-pacific region. But in the context of this article on the Pacific Islands, its hard not to conflate the two.)

  177. The handy map isn’t depicting areas at risk by 2010. It’s depicting areas at risk in the longer term. Have none of you read the report the map is based on?

    Read the report the map references. The report says:
    “Of the 25 million environmental refugees in 1995, there were roughly five
    million in the African Sahel, where a full ten million people had fled from recent
    droughts, only half returning home. Another four million, out of eleven million
    refugees of all types, were in the Horn of Africa including Sudan….”

    The report predicted that number would double by 2010 to 50 million. There’s no mention of sea level rise or hurricanes being the cause *by 2010*. That comes later, as the report says “when global warming takes hold”.

    Correction due?

  178. onion2: Perhaps you don’t read all the suggested links. From one of mine, from UN University and UNEP.

    “Rising sea levels, increasing desertification, weather-induced flooding, and more frequent natural disasters have, and will increasingly become, a major cause of population displacement in several parts of the world,” the statement said.

    Citing a report from the UN University, UNEP said that there were now more than 19 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern” – people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.

    We await your correction.

  179. ‘That comes later, as the report says “when global warming takes hold”.’ onion2

    So you are claiming that global warming has yet to kick in? I thought the whole ‘consensus’ was that it already had! That must mean that all these ‘environmental’ refugees you referred to, were fleeing from Natural circumstances.

  180. onion2 says:
    April 17, 2011 at 8:30 am

    The report predicted that number would double by 2010 to 50 million. There’s no mention of sea level rise or hurricanes being the cause *by 2010*. That comes later, as the report says “when global warming takes hold”.

    Correction due?

    Nice try stinky man. You truly are a good soldier.

    Unfortunately, you neglect to mention the the “handy map” was the first thing on an article entitled “Fifty Million Climate Refuges by 2010″.

    Also, as pointed out several times in the comments, subsequent reporting and quotes from the UN emphasized refuges and sea-level rise in the same context:

    “Rising sea levels, increasing desertification, weather-induced flooding, and more frequent natural disasters have, and will increasingly become, a major cause of population displacement in several parts of the world,” the statement said.
    Citing a report from the UN University, UNEP said that there were now more than 19 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern” – people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.

    http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=27094&Cr=refugee&Cr1

    See also the Guardian article referenced in the comments, specifically here:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/#comment-643004

    But perhaps you share the sentiments of Robert Manley, also in the comments above:

    It is clear the UN misinterpreted Myer’s paper and the map is a fabrication.

    You know, you smarter guys are always telling us dumber guys how important “context” is.

    Why should a correction be issued when the “context” is accurately protrayed?

  181. The USA, a corporation of the English Crown, is bankrupt, and has been since at least 1788. The Articles of Confederation states in Article 12: “All bills of credit emitted, monies borrowed, and debts contracted by, or under the authority of Congress, before the assembling of the United States, in pursuance of the present confederation, shall be deemed as considered a charge against the United States, for payment and satisfaction whereof the said United States, and the public faith are hereby solemnly pledged.”

    The “Founding Fathers,” as constitutors, acknowledged and reorganized the debt in the U.S. Constitution 1787, Article VI, hence “constitution.” Bankruptcy occurred on January 1, 1788 based on 21 loans that the United States of America received from the King of
    England dating from February 28, 1778, through July 5, 1782, the repayment of which had been ratified by Congress on January 22, 1783. The United States Bank, created in 1791, was a private bank, with 18,000 of 25,000 shares owned by England.
    http://www.stopthepirates.blogspot.com

  182. rp says:
    April 16, 2011 at 4:53 pm

    A semi-delirious, run-on sentence, frothing at the mouth rant is the always the best way to win an argument.

  183. Anthony, reader Ike informed me that you are quoted in Der Spiegel:

    http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,757556,00.html

    FYI – The part of interest in German:

    Angesichts der Uno-Mahnungen von 2005 hatte der “Asian Correspondent” nun die Frage gestellt: ‘Was ist mit den Klimaflüchtlingen geschehen?’ Daraufhin stürzten sich Blogger auf die Prognose und zerpflückten sie hämisch. Dabei stießen sie allerdings auf die gleichen Probleme wie Wissenschaftler, die über das Thema arbeiten: Der Begriff ‘Umweltflüchtling’ ist unscharf definiert.

    And in English:

    With respect to the UN warnings of 2005 the “Asian Correspondent” posed the question: ‘Whatever happened to the climate refugees?’ To answer this bloggers looked into this and gloatingly picked it to pieces. But here they ran up against the same problems as the scientists who occupy themselves with the subject: The term ‘environmental refugee’ is poorly defined.

    It bit of contempt for bloggers, there. But overall rather balanced considering it’s Der Spiegel,

  184. You are all totally wrong. There are easily 50 million climate refugees but the reason you can’t see these in the census figures is that the rising sea level has completely submerged their countries so there can’t be a census held there any more.

    Incidentally this also explains the rising population in other countries as this is entirely down to the hoards of devastated refugees settling in places like St Lucia.

    And the reason that you don’t hear about the lost countries is an American cover up.

    [Not sure if there is any need for Sarc tags - it should be obvious but the excuses that some Climate Change Deniers (like Michael Mann - who's hockey stick denies natural climate change) come up with I'm not so sure!]

  185. i’m sure they can cook up some phony reasons and describe the influx over the southern U.S. border as “climate change refugees”

  186. It’s 20.33 Sunday evening and this story is still top leader in the Spiegel Online mag (2 hours now!). Note that it’s LEADER, not stuffed into a little corner somewhere. And that also means that it’s likely it’ll stay in the front page some time whilst its moved down along with the other main stories of the day. So… lots of Germans will be reading about this!

    Here is the google translate link: http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=de&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fwissenschaft%2Fnatur%2F0%2C1518%2C757556%2C00.html

  187. Les Johnson:

    “Rising sea levels, increasing desertification, weather-induced flooding, and more frequent natural disasters have, and will increasingly become, a major cause of population displacement in several parts of the world,” the statement said.”

    Could be worded better. Some of those things have been a major cause of population displacements in several parts of the world, while others such as sea level will increasingly become a cause of population displacement. But it says nothing about 2010.

    This passage isn’t even on the page with the map.

    The map was cited a prediction for 2010. If the map wasn’t the concern, but that passage then why were you citing the map. This article is based on the map being a prediction for 2010. It isn’t. I await your correction. Read the report beneath the map too.

    “Citing a report from the UN University, UNEP said that there were now more than 19 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern” – people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.”

    Environmental disasters such as the Pakistan floods, and various droughts.

    Nothing here about sea level….yet.

  188. Of course the UN never actually defines who they consider to be a “Climate Refugee” anyway.

    But, by definition, “natural disasters” and “environmental degradation” cannot count unless those disasters and degradation can specifically be shown to be caused by changes in the Climate.

    And we all know (their rules, not ours) that changes have to be demonstrable over periods of at least 30 years, otherwise the are “just weather”. (c.f. the last three unusually cold winters. But also the 2003 heatwave in France and last year’s heatwave near Moscow – which are regularly trotted out as “proof” of Global Warming.)

    There is ample evidence that there is no significant trends with hurricanes, cyclones, volcanoes, floods, droughts and the rest.

    Rising temperatures? Well, there is the C.20th rise of 0.7ºC, allegedly due to CO2 but very likely at least half of this is due to changes in land use and long term fluctuations in ocean currents. And climbing up from the Little Ice Age. And most of this rise seems to be high Latitudes, increased MINIMUM temperatures during Winter nights.

    It seems unlikely that anyone got out of bed for even the whole 0.7ºC, never mind uprooted the family and became a refugee.

    Sea level rise is another complete non-event. Only possible problem seems to be the Carteret Islands (which are most likely sinking! Wikipedia try their utmost but can only find some unconvincingly equivocal weasel words to keep this particular scam afloat.)

    My hunch is that the last genuine “Climate Refugees” were probably the Viking farmers who had to leave Greenland when their settlements were overrun by ice. Slightly higher temperatures and a few inches of sea level are easier to manage with adaptation than becoming a refugee. Being buried under a glacier? More difficult.

    Any other ideas?

    Once we’ve agreed that, we can start throwing in the “anthropogenic” bit and see how many “Climate Refugees” we have left.

    My guess? Not enough for a poker game.

  189. James S says:
    April 17, 2011 at 11:09 am
    “You are all totally wrong. There are easily 50 million climate refugees but the reason you can’t see these in the census figures is that the rising sea level has completely submerged their countries so there can’t be a census held there any more.”

    Lemuria, Atlantis and Mu-Mu-Land, yeah, heard about them. ;-)

  190. Martin Brumby says:
    April 17, 2011 at 1:47 pm

    “[...] Once we’ve agreed that, we can start throwing in the “anthropogenic” bit and see how many “Climate Refugees” we have left.

    My guess? Not enough for a poker game.”

    And my guess? Not enough for a game of solitaire.

  191. This article clearly demonstrates what’s wrong with science reporting. If the UN had released a report claiming 50 million global warming refugees by 2010, there would be dozens of news articles on it. The supposed incriminating evidence is a Google Cache page with this map [grida.no] that doesn’t itself say anything about refugees, but does highlight areas most susceptible to sea level rise. The “50 million climate refugees by 2010 [googleusercontent.com]” statement is not referenced anywhere in any UN report, it’s a six words on one defunct graphic that was part of a larger report on world agriculture [grida.no] by the UN University. This 50 million by 2010 figure comes from Dr. Bogardi at the UN University in Bonn [guardian.co.uk], NOT the United Nations.

    The problem with this prediction being made by any scientist is that keeping track of how many refugees there are is difficult (current estimate by the UN is 1 million a year [unep.org], a figure that the Red Cross lends support to with the statement that environmental disasters are displacing more people than war now) and the causes are debatable. The epic flooding in Pakistan created 10 million refugees [reuters.com], Hurricane Katrina added a quarter of a million refugees [www.cbc.ca], and desertification in Africa is displacing millions. Can we blame these events on Global Warming? Hurricanes and floods happen without a warming world, but a warming world increases the chances of such disasters happening.

    Then there are the refugees that no one realizes. In the small coastal town where I live in North Carolina, houses have been falling into the swamp one by one for decades, but the residents blame it on people building their homes in flood zones, not realizing that sea levels in their state have risen three times the rate of rise on the rest of the Atlantic coast [sciencedaily.com]. People didn’t build their homes in the water, the water rose 1.5 meters over the 50 years since they were built, but nobody realizes this because of landscape amnesia [wikipedia.org].

    You can read all about the various estimates concerning environmental refugees on Wikipedia [wikipedia.org]. It took the author of this untruth less than an hour to post their nonsense and the deniers flooded the Internet with it quickly. It took me two hours to research and write this response, because I wanted to know what I was talking about, and I will only reach a very small audience in comparison. This is why I despair when considering how science could possibly stand a chance against the overwhelming confidence ignorance brings the unscientific masses.

    by ideonexus

    http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=2087672&cid=35847588

  192. @PersonOfInterest says: April 17, 2011 at 10:28 pm

    “If the UN had released a report claiming 50 million global warming refugees by 2010, there would be dozens of news articles on it.”

    Hang on! They did. And there were.

    You think the Millenium Bug destroyed my memory?

    Floods in Pakistan? Yeah, that hasn’t happened before in Pakistan. But unfortunately for you it happened before when it was still part of India. Even the British Press said that this was the worst flooding for 70 years. How much development has there been in flood plains? How much spent on flood alleviation schemes?

    It’s a pity you couldn’t come up with even one sensible example of Climate Refugees after two hour’s work.

    Try harder.

  193. PersonOfInterest says:
    April 17, 2011 at 10:28 pm

    I’m not going to even both as the comments on your link seem to sum up quite nicely.

    Wouldn’t you be better defending your comments where you made them [snip ~ac]

  194. Just to back up Person of Interest: everyone seems to have got “climate” and “environmental” mixed up. It happens again above with the “2020″ article: the headline says ‘environmental’, but in Watts’ letter, he uses ‘climate’. They’re completely different – if you link to / go and read the original reports this is based on, you would have seen that. To save you time I’ve quoted extensively from it here and provide links to the originals.

    Measuring the actual numbers, as Person of Interest points out, is hard. Census data from four tropical islands? Not relevant.

  195. At the moment in the UK we have a nice benign anticyclone sitting over us and northern Europe – so those monuments to ‘renewables’, wind farms, are idling round producing around 0.5% of electricity demand. Such good value for the taxpayer, don’t you know…
    What I am waiting for is for some climate change disciple to come out with: ‘Climate change is causing less wind..’
    At which time I will be found with tears of laughter streaming down my face…

  196. onion: pay attention now.

    I am not citing the map. I am citing UNEP, who had stated that there would 50 million climate refugees by 2010.

    As for sea level? 2400 people in Papua New Guinea in 2008, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center. Umm. That is it.

  197. “I am citing UNEP, who had stated that there would 50 million climate refugees by 2010.”

    Where have they done this? I can’t find a reference anywhere. I’ve seen some things on *environmental* refugees: this is completely different from “climate refugees” – it’s a much larger set of issues. From the original 1995 report, the full range of environmental factors examined are: food and agriculture; water shortages; deforestation; desertification; population pressure; urbanization and mega-cities; unemployment; poverty; extreme weather events.

  198. I swear I saw this on Slashdot this morning before work. Went to find it to show somebody and nada. What’s funny is that their overview had the “never heard of Google cache” line. It’s a great techie site, but they do tend a little to the left.

  199. Oops. Just found the story again on Slashdot. I thought they had disappeared it, but I was mistaken. My bad.

  200. Sorry to be so late with this remark. It occurred to me immediately but…..

    I do not believe there have been 50 milliion “climate” refugees. It was just another easily produced and easily swallowed (by the gullible) piece of AGW scaremongering propaganda.

    HOWEVER, referring to census data (unless that also includes data on in and out migration) is not a killer refutation of the claim. It is quite possible for populations to grow AND ALSO that there be “climate” refugees from the same country. This could certainly be the case for countries with very high birth rates.

    Sorry.

  201. You attribute Gavin correctly for catching the missing refugees story in the first place, but you don’t mention that someone else caught their attempt to “disappear” that story first.

    Come to patterico’s and take a look. I also sent you a tweet, too.

    REPLY: I don’t follow tweets, I only broadcast them from my blog for the convenience of thos who do, so it went into the bit bucket. But I’ll be happy to make a mention that you also found the same thing when you visited the UNEP URL – Anthony

  202. danolner: your

    Where have they done this? I can’t find a reference anywhere.

    I have given the reference here, and at Gavin’s. I give it again, with the money quote. Note that the UNEP source cites “climate change” several times. It also has at the bottom, the same name as a person, who, on Gavin’s site, denied the UNEP had ever made those claims.


    “Rising sea levels, increasing desertification, weather-induced flooding, and more frequent natural disasters have, and will increasingly become, a major cause of population displacement in several parts of the world,” the statement said.

    Citing a report from the UN University, UNEP said that there were now more than 19 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern” – people who are likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. UNEP said that figure is expected to grow to about 50 million by the end of 2010.

    http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=538&ArticleID=5842&l=en

    http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=27094&Cr=refugee&Cr1

  203. MarcH says:
    Global warming will make climates disappear
    The Australian March 29, 2007
    “IF trends in global warming continue, South Australia’s climate would vanish by 2010,

    Seems to me that this is a good thing. If climate disappears, then we don’t have to worry about it changing anymore…

  204. Did my comment disappear into the filter?

    [Rescued from the spam folder & posted. ~dbs, mod.]

  205. personofinterest:

    I have shown and quoted UN sources, ( 3, count em, 3) that state that climate refugees would number 50 million by 2010.

    NC sea level rising faster than the rest of the east coast? Not so much. The 4 stations at NOAA show 2.57, 2.82, 2.07 and 2.08 mm/year. This is the same, or less, as the rest of the Atlantic states. If NC was seeing a larger rise than the rest of the coast, it would mean that subsidence was the factor. And, unless they built the houses 600 years ago, there won’t have been a 1.5 meter rise.

    Also note that 3 of the stations have seen no significant rise in 15 years, while one at Southport, is at the same levels it was in 1980.

    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

    As for hurricanes being affected by warming? They may very well be influenced by warming, but in a negative direction. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index is at near 30 year lows.

    your

    It took me two hours to research and write this response,

    You need more research. You had zero correct statements in your post.

  206. yes, i would appreciate the mention.

    REPLY: It has been added to the Daily Caller story. I’ll add a note to WUWT as well. – Anthony

  207. Well I don’t know if this is a first for WUWT, or for Anthony Watts, but over the weekend, I was listening to the Coast-to-coast late evening radio program, which goes worldwide over more stations than any other program, and over the net, and a guest on the program, mentioned that Anthony Watts, on WUWT was the first to call attention to this insane prediction by the IPCC.

    So Congratulations Anthony; now the whole damn world, and a lot of alien planets, soon to know about WUWT.

    REPLY: Actually Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue which I followed the UNEP URL from his website and was able to find and recover the high-res map. I found today that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it. Of course with Gatkins putting the link on his website to the UNEP website map, it could have been anybody, it was only a matter of time before somebody noticed the 404 was not a malformed URL but an indication of removal.

    I just happened to have a large enough web profile for it to get noticed even higher up the media food chain. I’ve made a note on the Daily Caller article and also on WUWT to highlight the path of discovery. – Anthony

  208. So somebody who runs to their neighbor’s house because of a Tornado warning, to take shelter in the neighbor’s basement, is a “Climate refugee” ? Well isn’t that more like a “weather refugee” ? The thousands of Banglese who were left homeless by the Indonesian Tsunami, were neither climate nor weather refugees.
    Incidently; the family who ran for safety to their neighbor’s basement, actually made the wrong move. The neighbor’s house got demolished by that tornado; but as luck would have it, the basement did protect everybody. Oh, I almost forgot. The “climate refugee” family actually left a perfectly good house that came through the storm totally unscathed by the tornado; so now they have taken their basement enhanced neighbors into their home; since there’s is no more. So now who is the “climate refugee” in that situation; or is there any, since the neighbors are just being neighborly ?

    Hurricanes are not “climate” at least not on earth; maybe on Jupiter; but on earth they don’t last for a full 30 year climate interval. So Katrina was not “climate; so no “Climate refugees” there.

    Hey the ancestral Americans, who came across the Bering Land bridge, do not even qualify as “Climate refugees”. Hell, they didn’t even know they were going anywhere. They simply followed their food source; pretty much like the wildebeeste and the Zebras do today; they never gnu they were going anywhere either; just eating there way to some other watering hole.

    There have been more central Asians (XXXistanis) who have come to America since Barack Hussein Obama became President of the United States; than ever came to America during the last ice age. Nobody from Tajikistan ever came to America during the last ice age; even though their descendants did, long after they left Tajikistan. So no “climate refugees” there.

    If you move your tent out of a dry river bed, because it rained somewhere, and water is coming into the tent; you are NOT a climate refugee. You most certainly ARE an idiot, for ever pitching a tent in any sort of river bed; and people who are idiots will always need to be saved from their own stupidity; and that doesn’t make them refugees of any kind.

  209. Les Johnson: “I have given the reference here, and at Gavin’s. I give it again, with the money quote. Note that the UNEP source cites “climate change” several times.”

    Only the last link works for me, but let’s look at that -

    http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=27094&Cr=refugee&Cr1

    Quote: “Conflict and poverty, the most common reasons people are compelled to leave their homes, are now amplified by the effects of climate change, increasing scarcity of resources and food shortages – factors which may lead to greater insecurity in the future,” he stressed.”

    I don’t disagree that climate is *mentioned* – as I said, it’s even mentioned in the original 1995 report. But as Ban says here, it’s to point out its potential for amplifying the effects on *environmental* refugees – affected by the whole list of factors I gave above. To compare, if we wanted to talk about the displacement effects and interaction of war and drought, we have to be able to distinguish “war” from “drought”. The point’s as basic as that.

    We can go on to talk about the problematic issues of defining what an environmental refugee is – of which there are many (and of course if you read the 1995 report, that is acknowledged). But we can’t do that unless we can agree on the basics of what we’re talking about.

  210. Les Johnson again: another quote from that -

    “In a related development, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said in a statement today that a new kind of casualty was being created by climate change: the environmental refugee.”

    Well, that supports what you’re saying. Someone at the UN thinks they’re the same thing too! That’s not something Myers ever said in his original work, in my reading of his stuff so far.

    But my bad: I completely see how you’d conclude the two were the same from sentences like that. It looks like a lot of people have to define their terms better, including whoever wrote that article!

  211. danolner: I agree that Myers work is not well represented by UNEP.

    I can still get to that other site. This is from UNEP, and has a name at the bottom of a man, who claimed that UNEP never made these claims. Ouch.

    The International Federation of Red Cross says climate change disasters are currently a bigger cause of population displacement than war and persecution.

    The global impact of the environment on human livelihoods is creating a new kind of casualty-the environmental refugee. Rising sea levels, increasing desertification, weather-induced flooding, and more frequent natural disasters have, and will increasingly become a major cause of population displacement in several parts of the world.

    According to a report published by the United Nations University, there are now about 19.2 million people officially recognized as “persons of concern”-that is, people likely to be displaced because of environmental disasters. This figure is predicted to grow to about 50 million by the end of the year 2010.

    These forecasts are not inevitable and will hinge on whether the international community can pull together and deliver a decisive and meaningful agreement on climate change at the UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, alongside more intelligent management of the planet’s nature-based assets.

    [Addendum : Please provide a link when quoting. I think the link for this quote is http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=538&ArticleID=5842&l=en (?)- mj]

  212. That’s interesting: very nearly the same text –

    “a new kind of casualty was being created by *climate change*: the environmental refugee.”

    vs

    “The global impact of the *environment* on human livelihoods is creating a new kind of casualty – the environmental refugee.”

    One’s pinning it all on climate change, the other uses the term environment. All rather a muddle.

  213. Moderator: Yes, that is the correct link. I usually paste the link under the quote. My mistake.

    I will check that in the future.

  214. Google Cache now states
    “Your search – cache:5OWrvQs5P5YJ:maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010 http … – did not match any documents. ” so I guess they pulled it too

  215. If we see climate refugees, it will be from reversion toward the mean, not warming. If we hopefully get warming, we’ll see prosperity.

  216. ““……when people are not living in sustainable conditions, they migrate….”

    According to every liberal I talk to, the entire United States is not living in sustainable conditions. I haven’t seen any mass migrations of Americans to more sustainable economies like…um…I don’t know…Sweden, I guess. They’ve got, like, socialized medicine and stuff. That’s like sustainable, right?

  217. “UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.”

    The highlighted quote: “because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.”

    Anthony: it would be helpful if you could respond to the repeatedly-made point that *environmental* refugees are not the same as *climate* refugees. That quote says “environmental”. We can go on to discuss problems with the definition or whatever, but until we can agree on terms – and the fact that an “environmental refugee” is not a “climate refugee” (see previous comments, with a definition for environmental refugees, from the source you cite) – it’s going to be hard to have a sensible discussion about this.

  218. I wonder why the people in and around Japan haven’t left already. Typhoons have been around for centuries, have killed lots of people. Same for earthquakes and tsunamis. Strange how today’s climate change can have an effect in the past that sunk the mongolian invasion fleet.

  219. AK says:
    Strange how today’s climate change can have an effect in the past that sunk the mongolian invasion fleet.

    “Climate disruption may cause of temporal distortion”
    - where do I apply for funding?

  220. http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010

    We have decided to withdraw the product and accompanying text. It follows some media reports suggesting the findings presented were those of UNEP and the UN which they are not.

    We hope this clarifies the situation.

    That’s a laugh. Media reports “suggesting the findings presented were those of UNEP and the UN.” Jeez, the point is the UN jumped all over the findings and used the findings as part of their propaganda. And now they think they can just disown it as easily as that? Nothing to see here?

  221. Hey,

    The author of the original article, Gavin Atkins at AsianCorrespondent, has done an excellent job following up on the story. I’ve included his follow up stories below in chronological order. Interesting stuff indeed…

    April 22 –

  222. What a ridiculous thesis. Uh, Haiti!? New Orleans!? Surely there are more. The point is not the specifics of this migration. The point is that many die and are displaced. Sure you say, these natural disasters are not conclusively climate related. Well, by 2020 there may be a trend. Anyway there already is one with more common more extreme weather events on a regular basis.

    Your article entirely misses the point. Playing dumb like that doesn’t make you look smart but I suppose the internet age allows you your loyal followers who already accept that looking at Google cache is going to give you mucho insight on the UN.

    Please don’t use the term “disappears” so flippantly. Some dumb online statistic shouting match is not a respectful way to treat a historical term originating in Latin America to describe some really brutal crimes. The Mothers of the Disappeared would not be impressed with your use of the term but Pinochet would love how you trivialise his crimes.

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