Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast Model Flops

Last year Germany’s Potsdam Institute (PIK) boasted that it had a superior El Niño one-year forecasting model, claiming 80% certainty. Today, a year later, its forecast emerges totally wrong and the prestigious institute is left humiliated.

Fidelity of El Niño simulation matters for predicting future climate

A new study led by University of Hawai’i at Mānoa researchers, published in the journal Nature Communications this week, revealed that correctly simulating ocean current variations hundreds of feet below the ocean surface – the so-called Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent – during El Niño events is key in reducing the uncertainty of predictions of future warming in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Coral tells own tale about El Niño’s past

Rice, Georgia Tech study in Science reveals Pacific temperatures over a millennium Rice University Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb samples an ancient coral for radiometric dating. She is part of a team of Rice University and Georgia Tech scientists using data from coral fossils to build a record of temperatures in the tropical Pacific…

La Nina may form in the equatorial Pacific Ocean later this year and, if so, it could have wide-ranging ramifications

By Paul Dorian NOAA’s CFS v2 computer forecast model is predicting relatively strong La Nina conditions by later this summer (August/September/October); SST anomalies plot courtesy NOAA *La Nina may form in the equatorial Pacific Ocean later this year and, if so, it could have wide-ranging ramifications* Overview It appears somewhat likely that the current weak…

A Weak El Nino Transitioning to La Nada

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog Friday, February 14, 2020 A Weak El Nino Transitioning to La Nada During the past few months we have moved from near neutral conditions (La Nada) to a weak El Nino (warmer than normal temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific)–providing some insights into the weather later…