Does the Climate System Have a Preferred Average State? Chaos and the Forcing-Feedback Paradigm

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s website October 25th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: I have written on this subject before, but it is important enough that we need to keep thinking about it. It is also related to the forcing-feedback paradigm of climate change, which I usually defend — but which I…

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Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong

12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections in light of error propagation and uncertainty analysis, freely available here. Four days later, Roy Spencer posted a critique of my analysis at WUWT, here…

Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends (1967-2018): A comparison between climate models and observations

According to the climate models, snow cover should have steadily decreased for all four seasons. However, the observations show that only spring and summer demonstrates a long-term decrease. Ronan Connolly, Michael Connolly, Willie Soon, David R. Legates, Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco , and V. M. Velasco Herrera Abstract: Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from…

Allowable 'carbon budget' most likely overestimated

From Eurekalert and the it’s worse than we thought department. Public Release: 24-Jul-2017 Penn State While most climate scientists, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, implicitly define “pre-industrial” to be in the late 1800’s, a true non-industrially influenced baseline is probably further in the past, according to an international team of researchers who are…

Why Climate Models Run Hot

by Rud Istvan,   EPA administrator Pruitt wants to “Red Team” the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) consensus best reflected in the IPCC assessment reports (AR). At its core, CAGW rests on just three propositions: 1. CO2 is a ‘greenhouse’ gas retarding radiative cooling. This should not be in serious dispute since Tyndall experimentally proved…

One Model, One Vote

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It seems that as long as your model is big enough, they will include your model in their confabulations. This has always seemed strange to me,…

Volcanic Corroboration

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2010, I wrote a post called “Prediction is hard, especially of the future“. It turned out to be the first of a series of posts that I ended up writing on the inability of climate models to successfully replicate the effects of volcanoes. It was an investigation occasioned…