CMIP6 adds more value in simulating extreme temperatures in China

Climate models have provided an avenue for studying the possible changes in extreme temperatures in the future; and in this respect, to ease of comparison across models from different modelling groups worldwide, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) established the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which is devoted to providing standardized climate simulation outputs for intercomparison purposes.

Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model that can account for the period disconnection using the negative forcing of aerosol/cloud effects in the Historical period that is carried forward into the Future period. I attribute some of the uncertainty in simulations of this simple model to endogenous model decision (selection) uncertainty that leads to variations in the changes of the negative forcing in the Historical period carried forward into the Future period.

Corrected RCP Scenario Removal Fractions

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog February 6th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Well, as I suspected (and warned everyone) in my blog post yesterday, a portion of my calculations were in error regarding how much CO2 is taken out of the atmosphere in the global carbon cycle models used for the RCP…

Oreskes Vs. Oreskes

By Rud Istvan, edited by Charles Rotter WUWT reader Max alerted us to a 1994 Naomi Oreskes et. al. paper published in the prestigious journal Science. Her paper was a critical analysis of Earth Science numerical models. I asked Rud to take a look, since he had previously written on climate models both here and…

Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong

12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections in light of error propagation and uncertainty analysis, freely available here. Four days later, Roy Spencer posted a critique of my analysis at WUWT, here…