Does the Climate System Have a Preferred Average State? Chaos and the Forcing-Feedback Paradigm

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s website October 25th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: I have written on this subject before, but it is important enough that we need to keep thinking about it. It is also related to the forcing-feedback paradigm of climate change, which I usually defend — but which I…

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Climate change intensifies war of the birds

From EurekAlert! Public Release: 10-Jan-2019 Why great tits kill pied flycatchers in their next boxes University of Groningen IMAGE: This is Jelmer Samplonius with a pied flycatcher.  Credit: Rob Buiter University of Groningen (UG) biologists have discovered that climate change has an effect on the regular clashes between great tits and pied flycatchers during the…

Chaos & Climate – Part 4: An Attractive Idea

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”  – IPCC TAR WG1, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis Introduction:  (if you’ve read the previous installments, you may skip this intro) The IPCC has long recognized that the…

Chaos & Climate – Part 3: Chaos & Models

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen   “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”  – IPCC TAR WG1, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis Introduction:  The IPCC has long recognized that the Earth’s climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system.   Unfortunately,…

Is The Climate Chaotic?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach After I’d published my previous post on the Hurst Exponent entitled A Way To Calculate Effective N, I got an email from Dan Hughes which contained a most interesting idea. He thought that it would be productive to compare the Hurst analysis of the records of weather phenomena such as…

Chaos & Climate – Part 1: Linearity

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen “…we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” – IPCC AR4 WG1           Introduction: The IPCC has long recognized that the climate system is 1) nonlinear and therefore,…