The Week That Was: 2022-07-30 (July 30, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert.” – J Robert Oppenheimer. [H/t Paul Homewood]
Number of the Week: 250,000 GWh
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: In 2009, Anthony Watts organized a team of volunteers who inspected and took photographs of all the US weather stations they could identify that make up the ground-based system for measuring surface-air temperature in the US. This system was once considered the gold standard for the world. The team found about 96 percent of U.S. stations failed to meet the standards the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) considers to be “acceptable.” Initially, NOAA dismissed the report claiming it could “correct” any errors in measurement. An investigation by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) followed and several “peer reviewed” papers were published demonstrating how poorly placed stations can create measurements with a considerable warming bias. NOAA and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) promised to do better.
A 2015 report by the Watts’ team found that NOAA and NCDC hadn’t. Now a report on a new survey of surface stations by a team organized by Watts is available. Some stations are properly sited, but many are not. The new report includes some infrared photos showing how instruments can give biased readings from energy emitted by nearby structures. Details of the new project will be discussed.
On July 28, Congress passed a massive semiconductor subsidy and research bill known as the “Chips plus Science” Act. Computer chip manufacturing requires stable and reliable electricity for weeks and months on end. A system is stable and reliable when it is balanced – it meets demand exactly and all necessary conditions such as voltage and frequency are constant. Almost immediately thereafter Senators Manchin and Schumer announced a deal to expand subsidies for unreliable and erratic electricity from wind and solar generation. Some of the problems arising from this shallow thinking are discussed.
Francis Menton has been researching energy storage needed for back-up of wind and solar for a report by Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). He looked into the plans in countries and US states that are “climate leaders” in achieving Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions. Many politicians called climate leaders are heavily engaged in magical thinking – needed backup will magically appear.
The late Fred Singer and the late Dennis T. Avery co-authored the book Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years. They considered climate change is largely natural, thus unstoppable. Interestingly, Nature Magazine recently published an article showing these 1500-year cycles dating back to the Jurassic (about 155 million years ago).
The Global Warming heatwave has jumped from western Europe to the Pacific Northwest of the US. Meteorologist Cliff Mass has a good explanation why extreme weather events are not the result of carbon dioxide-caused global warming.
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As Bad As Ever: The earlier reports by Anthony Watts and his team on the poor siting of surface stations designed to provide reliable records of weather resulted in thoughtful essays and experiments. For example, the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology published the results of one such a study “Impacts of Small-Scale Urban Encroachment on Air Temperature Observations.” The abstract begins:
“A field experiment was performed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, with four instrumented towers placed over grass at increasing distances (4, 30, 50, 124, and 300 m) from a built-up area. Stations were aligned in such a way to simulate the impact of small-scale encroachment on temperature observations. As expected, temperature observations were warmest for the site closest to the built environment with an average temperature difference of 0.31° and 0.24°C for aspirated and unaspirated sensors, respectively.”
After further discussion, the abstract concludes:
“These results suggest that small-scale urban encroachment within 50 m of a station can have important impacts on daily temperature extrema (maximum and minimum) with the magnitude of these differences dependent upon prevailing environmental conditions and sensing technology.” [Boldface added]
In light of these studies, Anthony Watts compiled another team to investigate improvements or the lack thereof. The project goals were:
“1. Photographically review as many of the USHCN [U.S. Historical Climatology Network] stations cited in the original 2009 survey as possible.
2. Note differences between 2009 and 2022 with emphasis on closures, moves, and equipment changes.
3. Determine if station ratings have changed due to additional encroachments or station moves.
4. Expand the photographic survey to look at GHCN [Global Historical Climatology Network] stations where possible to determine if GHCN stations have the same type of problems that plagued the USHCN.
5. Note the most egregious station siting violations and bring those to the attention of the NWS manager in charge.
6. Publish the photographic survey for USHCN before and after, plus new GHCN stations.
7. Examine station continuity data for the entire GHCN network to determine how much change has occurred over time.
8. Establish conclusions from the new survey.
9. Make recommendations for the future.”
The Survey Methods are given and what was observed was compared with the siting standards issued by the National Weather Service. Specifically, the temperature instruments should be installed:
“Over level terrain (earth or sod) typical of the area around the station, and at least 100 feet from any extensive concrete or paved area.” [p.21, Watts’ report]
The results and findings of the survey state in part:
“In April and May of 2022, a total of 128 stations were surveyed throughout the contiguous United States. Of ’those, 80 were USHCN stations, most of which were in the original 2009 report. A total of 528 photographs were taken. To acquire a sample for the new nClimDiv [NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Divisional Database] dataset, 48 GHCN sites were surveyed, with 298 photographs taken. The overall sample is broadly representative of the entire network, as it samples stations in the majority of states. Regional samples comprising many nearby stations were done in the western and southeastern United States, focusing on Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and South Carolina.”
• The 2009 report found 89 percent of stations were unacceptable by NOAA’s own standards. The 2022 report found an even greater percentage of stations—approximately 96 percent—are sited unacceptably. The official U.S. temperature record, which was shown in 2009 to be heat-biased due to poor siting issues, appears to be even more biased in 2022.
• Of the 128 stations surveyed, only two were found to be a Class 1 (best-sited) station: the Dubois, Idaho Agricultural Experiment Farm, and the St. Joseph, Louisiana Agricultural Experiment Farm.
• Three stations were found to be Class 2 (acceptably sited).
• The remaining 123 stations were found to be Class 3, 4, and 5, and therefore considered unacceptably sited in accordance with Leroy’s classification system and NOAA publication 10-1302.
• The 7 percent increase in unacceptably sited stations from 2009 to 2022 seems to be in line with the Gallo and Xian study noting the increase in ISAs near USHCN stations.
• Based on the sample, it appears that waste-water treatment plants (WWTP) comprise approximately 25-30 percent of the entire COOP network. It is difficult to get an accurate count because NOAA / NWS does not discern between WWTPs and other stations in the HOMR database. WWTPs are a poor place to measure data to detect climate change because they grow with population, and the industrial processes they perform (sewage digestion) generate substantial amounts of heat, creating a heat sink effect
From this, one can conclude that even in the US, the surface-air temperature trends used in global climate models have a major heat-island-effect bias and should not be used for policy. The records are not reliable.
Among the Conclusions and Recommendations was:
“It is important to note Watts and his fellow authors found a slight warming trend when examining temperature data from unperturbed stations, which cleaved closely to the findings of the University of Alabama-Huntsville’s satellite-derived temperature record. This warming trend, however, is approximately half the claimed rate of increase promoted by many in the climate science community.”
Thus, we have one more set of physical evidence that does not support the claim of a climate emergency. The last recommendation was:
“NOAA / NWS / NCEI should start reporting the temperature results of the USCRN in monthly and yearly State of the Climate reports issued by NOAA. The USCRN provides the most accurate surface temperature record in the United States by design. However, the media and public are not privy to the data it provides, nor are many aware of its existence.”
It is doubtful that we will see the temperature results of the US Climate Reference Network in the State of the Climate reports by NOAA or in the upcoming National Climate Assessment. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A Kiss and a Promise? Many commentators were surprised by the agreement between Senators Manchin and Schumer. Manchin agreed to support the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act.” “As an article in the Wall Street Journal begins:
“Talk about bad timing. As the economy slouches near recession, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin late Wednesday unveiled a tax-and-spending deal that they call the Inflation Reduction Act. Is their aim to reduce inflation by chilling business investment and the economy?
Mr. Manchin is selling the deal as deficit reduction and a rescue for fossil fuels. If he believes this, he hasn’t thought through the impact of the 725-page bill. A more accurate name would be the Business Investment Reduction and Distortion Act since that will be the result of its $433 billion in climate and healthcare spending, and $615 billion in new taxes and drug price-control ‘savings.’
Start with the 15% minimum tax on corporate book income over $1 billion, which Democrats claim will raise $313 billion through 2031. This new alternative minimum tax will slam businesses whose taxable income is lower than the profits on their financial statements owing to the likes of investment expensing, tax credits and business deductions.
Many companies pay less than the 21% corporate tax rate because they can expense investments under the tax code up-front. Hence, the new tax will increase the cost of business investment and—irony alert—the Tax Foundation forecasts the coal industry would be hardest hit. Yet green-energy tax credits would be exempt from the new tax.”
Thus, the Act will subsidize erratic and unreliable wind and solar, precisely the wrong type of electricity generation needed for computer chip manufacturing, which is being subsidized by the “Chips plus Science” Act passed immediately before. According to other reports, Manchin received promises on drilling for oil and gas, which is being highly restricted by the anti-fossil fuel administration. Whether these secret promises come true remains to be seen.
Other reports made the strange claim that China and the rest of Asia will follow this “leadership by example.” Also in the Journal, Holman Jenkins dismissed this view. He wrote:
Let’s go to the numbers: Fossil energy accounted for 82% of global energy consumption last year, down from 85% in 2016, so fossil fuels are headed to zero, right?
No, total energy consumption is growing—last year it jumped a walloping 5.8%, the biggest increase ever, including a 2.6% increase in renewables and a 5.7% increase in coal.
The demand for energy will keep growing as a billion-plus humans seek to rise from poverty. Renewables will be lucky to hold even their current share of the market. Millions will want air conditioning if the world is warming. It will be an excellent trade-off for them. The additional emissions will be a small price to pay for being able to live and work in healthy conditions right now.
But the saddest sound effect is the claim by the Senate bill’s admirers that China, India and other emitters will be so impressed with the Manchin compromise that they will fall in the line.
This flight of fantasy informed a hundred press reports on Friday. Unfortunately, Oxford University’s Eyck Freymann, a careful reader of Chinese policy statements in the original Chinese, delivers the bad news: Beijing has already decided it makes more sense to live with rising CO2 levels than combat them. [Boldface added]
Two outcomes are guaranteed: The effect of emissions will continue to be felt whatever these effects are; and somebody will always use warming as a reason to relieve you of your tax dollars.
See Articles #1 and #2, and links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and The Political Games Continue.
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Net Zero Thinking: In his investigation of political entities claiming to pursue Net Zero including Germany, UK, California, and New York, Francis Menton wrote:
One would think that for any jurisdiction pursuing Net Zero ambitions, and seeking to abolish use of fossil fuels, it would be completely imperative that some energy storage solution absolutely must be found to provide back-up for the electricity system when the wind and sun are not producing. But what my research has shown is that every one of these jurisdictions seeking to be the leader toward Net Zero has given astoundingly insufficient consideration to the energy storage problem.
The single most astounding universal failure of all jurisdictions pursuing Net Zero is the failure to pursue any sort of working prototype or demonstration project of a Net Zero electricity system before committing the entire jurisdiction to the project on the basis of a blank check to be paid by the taxpayers and ratepayers. Who has ever heard of such a thing? In the 1880s, when Thomas Edison wanted to start building central station power plants to supply electricity for his new devices like incandescent lightbulbs, he began by building a prototype facility in London under the Holborn Viaduct and followed that with a larger demonstration plant on Pearl Street in Lower Manhattan that only supplied electricity to customers within a few square blocks. Only after those had been demonstrated as successful did a larger build-out begin.
After discussion of nuclear energy, Menton continues:
But somehow our politicians have now become so filled with hubris that they think they can just order up a functioning wind/solar electricity system and assume that backup energy storage devices will magically get invented, and it will all work fine and not be financially ruinous, all by some arbitrarily ordered date in the 2030s.
Today, all the mentioned jurisdictions and many more have embarked on ambitious Net Zero plans, and yet there does not exist anywhere in the world a functioning prototype or demonstration project that has actually achieved Net Zero in electricity generation, or anything even close. Indeed, it’s worse than that. There is a fairly substantial project that set out to achieve Net Zero (although they weren’t using the term at the time, which was 2014), and has fallen remarkably short. That project is on the island of El Hierro, one of the Canary Islands off the coast of Spain.
Menton discusses some details of El Hierro (2019 population 11,200), discussed in previous TWTWs. The only other effort TWTW has managed to find is King Island (2021 population 1,600), off Tasmania, another failure. Are we to believe that demonstration projects that fail on a small scale will succeed in a large, complex modern society? Menton discusses huge estimates by Roger Andrews and Ken Gregory on the required backup needed for a wind/solar systems. Menton then writes:
Facing such requirements to reach Net Zero and banish fossil fuels from the electricity system, the plans of these jurisdictions for acquisition of storage are quite shocking. The consultancy Wood Mackenzie reported on April 11, 2022, that Germany had announced plans to acquire all of 8.91 GWh of energy storage by 2031 — a ridiculously puny amount if Germany is actually serious about Net Zero. Utility Dive reported on April 12, 2022, that New York had plans to acquire all of 6 GW of storage (likely corresponding to about 24 GWh, since the batteries are to be of the lithium-ion type that generally have capacity for four hours of discharge at full capacity). This figure is only slightly less puny than Germany’s. Another piece from Utility Dive on April 6, 2022, reported that California’s regulators had ordered utilities to acquire what would be the equivalent of about 42 GWh of storage as part of the Net Zero plans of that jurisdiction. All of these storage acquisition plans are in the range of about 0.1% to 0.2% of the storage that would actually be needed to achieve the Net Zero goal. [Boldface added]
In the dream world of these childish politicians, they will be able to turn off electricity whenever required. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Dansgaard–Oeschger Events: According to Britannica, Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) events are dramatic but fleeting global climate swings with abrupt warming followed by slow cooling. The are primarily observed around the North Atlantic particularly in ice cores from Greenland. Several months ago, TWTW linked to, but did not discuss, D-O glacial events detected in an ice-free sedimentary record from the Tethyan Basin about 155 million years ago.
The Tethyan Basin was a shallow sea stretching from what is now the Tibetan Himalayas to what is now the Alps. There is a great deal of speculation, but the key point is that sudden warming periods are not uncommon in the earth’s history, though the cause is not clear. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Unusually Hot: This week there was a heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. Meteorologist Cliff Mass gives a good explanation of the distinction between heat waves and CO2-caused global warming. Extreme heat waves have not increased while the area is warming (by 1 to 2°F over 50 years). Extreme heat is a different animal than CO2-caused global warming. Extreme heatwaves are caused by natural variability, not CO2. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible. Senators Manchin and Schumer were nominated this week.
The voting will close on August 2. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08-14&chain=6903&child=0¤cy=USD&depart=2022-08-15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1
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Number of the Week: 250,000 GWh According to the estimate by Ken Gregory, the lower 48 of the US would require 250,000 GWh of backup if it went Net Zero. It is difficult to put a cost on this storage requirement. The largest battery made by Tesla is the Megapack, with 3 megawatt hours (MWhs) of storage and 1.5 MW of inverter capacity. According to a March report, 10 Megapacks cost $16,048,230 or $412.37 per kWh plus a maintenance contract. The costs of the new Net Zero generation plus the storage becomes staggering. See Menton’s essay under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://electrek.co/2022/03/21/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-backlog-extends/
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
State Power Doesn’t Settle Science
By Barry Brownstein, American Institute for Economic Research, July 27, 2022
A Whitewash is Not Colourful – Part 1: John Brewer Reef Fact Check
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 30, 2022
“Most corals at reefs around the world are their healthiest when they are beige in colour. Many beige-coloured corals have naturally florescent tips.”
[SEPP Comment: Beware of fact checkers, who do not know the difference between fact and opinion.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 27, 2022
Video: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/29/live-corrupted-climate-stations/
Link to report: Corrupted Climate Stations: The Official U.S. Surface Temperature Record Remains Fatally Flawed
By Anthony Watts, et al. The Heartland Institute, 2022
Link to earlier report: Impacts of Small-Scale Urban Encroachment on Air Temperature Observations
By Ronald D. Leeper, et al. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, June 1, 2019
What The Future Holds For Our Climate Leaders
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 28, 2022
The Politics of Energy, Part 1
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 26, 2022
“Shouldn’t the use of America’s natural resources be determined by policies that protect the United States?”
Yes, sometimes the world warms up all on its own
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
Link to paper: A Jurassic record encodes an analogous Dansgaard–Oeschger climate periodicity
By Slah Boulila, Nature, Scientific Reports, Corrected Mar 9, 2022
The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 29, 2022
Audio and text
Ocean Atmosphere Response to Solar EMR at Top of the Atmosphere
By Richard Willoughby, WUWT, July 23, 2022
By Andy May, WUWT, July 24, 2022
Link to report: Europe’s Green experiment: A Costly Failure in Unilateral Climate Policy
By John Constable, GWPF, 2022
Little evidence of changes in extreme weather trends
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2022
Extreme Weather: The IPCC’s Changing Tune
By Ralph Alexander, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2022
“GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review this paper, and to submit a response to be published as an appendix to it. No reply was received.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Review of the 5th National Climate Assessment: Call for Nominations
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 18, 2022
Submit nominations for the committee reviewing the 5th National Climate Assessment
[SEPP Comment: Only yes-men and women accepted?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Federal Policy, Not Litigation, Is the Best Strategy to Make Local Infrastructure Climate-Ready
By Tom Magness, Real Clear Energy, July 28, 2022
“Regardless of one’s view, as population increases, the veracity of weather events seemingly intensifies with every report.”
[SEPP Comment: False premise. The veracity, accuracy, of weather reporting is declining, becoming more extreme, though weather forecasting is improving.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Weather Simulations Leading To Über-Hype. And: Germany’s Disaster Management Is In Disastrous State
The pitfalls of weather models
By Die kalte Sonne (Translated, edited by P. Gosselin) No Tricks Zone, July 27, 2022
On weather catastrophes: “Those who do not want to face these central questions because they fear personal or political consequences or want to manage their own ideological agenda cling to the fairy tale of global warming being solely responsible.” – Sven Titz, NZZ
The Unaffordable Costs of ‘Free’ Renewables
By Walter Starck, Quadrant, July 29, 2022
“Throughout the 99.9 per cent of human existence before the recent widespread adoption of fossil fuels, almost every individual toiled at manual labour from mid-childhood until the end of life. Even with the help of horses, mules, and oxen almost all of the population was needed in food production in order to sustain themselves and produce enough extra to support a small population of nobles and town dwellers. Today, in developed nations three-quarters or more of the population now live in large urban areas, and about half of the populace is no longer engaged in any productive activity.”
End Carbon Imperialists’ Impoverishment of Africa
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, July 27, 2022
Climate Change Dictates Are Self Destructive – But Also Part Of A Bigger Agenda
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, July 19, 2022
Link to article: Why so much solar activity? Sun may be outpacing predictions.
By Rahul Rao, Space.com, April 25, 2022
“Even after centuries of observations, the sun can still surprise scientists.”
Climate Emergency Update
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
“US Tornado numbers are also below average and the longest period ever without an EF-5 tornado continues to get longer:”
Climate Emergency? What A Crock
I & I Editorial Board, July 25, 2022
Change in US Administrations
The Bright Side of the Manchin/Schumer Climate Deal
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 29, 2022
Speaking of plans
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
“Evidently voters aren’t as smart as journalists. When someone hypes a crisis based on unconvincing evidence, then offers a solution they can’t think of, they seem not to rally behind it. Looooosers.”
Mr. President, Please Don’t Make This Energy Crisis Worse
By Frank Macchiarola & Anne Bradbury, Real Clear Energy, July 27, 2022
More than 175 environmental groups urge Buttigieg to reinstate emission regulation rule on state departments
By Brad Dress, The Hill, July 26, 2022
The Climate Agenda Is What’s Melting
By Steve Milloy, Real Clear Politics, July 20, 2022
Biden administration announces plans to plant one billion trees
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, July 25, 2022
Where?
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
More New Studies Affirm Rising CO2 Leads To Land Surface Cooling By Driving Earth’s Greening Trends
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 28, 2022
Link to one study: Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns
By Xu Lian, et al, Nature Communications, July 7, 2022
From abstract: “Overall, greening makes winter warmer and summer cooler, attenuating the seasonal amplitude of NH temperature.
Link to second study: Hydrological feedback from projected Earth greening in the 21st century
By Jie Wu. et al, Sustainable Horizons, January 2022
“Earth satellites have observed continuous increasing vegetation growth during the past four decades, a phenomenon called Earth greening.”
[SEPP Comment; Then the study uses Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models that fail basic testing against atmospheric data?]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
BRICS In the New World Energy Order: Hedging in Oil Geopolitics
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Via WUWT, July 23, 2022
“President Putin in his notable speech to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last month warned that ‘it is a mistake to suggest that one can wait out the times of turbulent change and that things will return to normal; that everything will be as it was. It will not.’ For many developing countries critically dependent on imports of the 3Fs – fuels, food and fertilizers — membership of the BRICS group may well turn out to be the best geopolitical hedge in a world forever changed by the US-led financial sanctions on Russia.’”
[SEPP Comment: Disturbing news for those who cannot think beyond G-7]
Carbon Emissions On Track To Reach An All-Time High
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com Jul 23, 2022
“Global carbon dioxide emissions have been driven by the Asia Pacific region for the past 50 years, and there’s no sign that this is slowing down. The world doesn’t stand a chance of curbing carbon dioxide emissions without figuring out a way to stop emissions growth in these populous developing countries.”
RIP James Lovelock, The Climate Activist Who Admitted He was Wrong
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 27, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
Numbers –Tricky Tricky Numbers: Part 1
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 26, 2022
It’s hot. It’s late July. It’s not abnormal
By Joseph D’Aleo, CO2 Coalition, July 23, 2022 [H/t William Readdy]
Is there a way out of the energy crisis?
Options for people dealing with energy restrictions and rising prices
By Jason Hayes, Mackinac Center for Public Policy, July 22, 2022
Link to: Seven Principles of Sound Energy Policy
By Jason Hayes, Mackinac Center for Public Policy, No Date
[SEPP Comment: Seven points worth considering after the key one: Is there a climate crisis?]
Boston Globe Admits Global Warming has Saved Lives
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The author of the newspaper article is Jeff Jacoby, probably the only realist appearing in the paper.]
Science, Policy, and Evidence
The Guns of Warming
How Treating Climate Change as a Security Issue Backfired
By Nils Gilman, Breakthrough Institute, Mar 29, 2022 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Double whammy for Canada’s energy sector
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
“The Alberta government managed to be surprised as well: its Energy Minister said
“’I’m a little amazed by the timing of it. It’s tone deaf from the federal government to be pushing this at a time when the world is looking for more energy. And it’s looking like in Europe, they’re going to be rationing natural gas over the winter … and yet we’re punishing oil and gas workers, and the oil and gas industry in Canada.’”
Model Issues
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
By Nour-Eddine Omran, et al., Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Science, July 13, 2022 [H/t Climate etc.]
From the abstract: “Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework.”
Changing Weather
Summer Sizzle – The Real Factors
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, July 22, 2022
English weather
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
Was It Hotter In 1911?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 23, 2022
“Any objective analysis would find that the heat in the summer of 1911 was much more intense and extreme than anything we have seen this year. Strangely though I have not seen any mention of 1911 in the Met Office’s reporting this week!”
[SEPP Comment: Failure to adjust for the Urban Heat Island effect.]
Hosepipe Ban For Hampshire
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
“Since 1836, there have been a total of twenty years with less than 240mm in the first half year, many of these much drier than this year. In other words, a once every decade phenomenon on average. Moreover, dry years used to be much more common in the distant past:”
[SEPP Comment: Hosepipe ban: using hoses to water plants, fill pools, wash cars, etc.]
May 1922 – 94F In Paris – Alps Glaciers Melting
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2022
Changing Climate
A Tropical Plant’s Warmth Threshold Affirms Mid-Holocene Temps Were ‘7.7°C Higher Than Today’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 25, 2022
Link to study: Paleovegetation and paleotemperature in North China during the mid-Holocene based on sedimentological and palynological evidence from Lake Baiyangdian
By Shengrui Zhang, et al. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, June 1, 2022
From the abstract: “Statistical analysis of the modern distribution and climate thresholds of Ceratopteris were used to estimate the mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean January temperature (MJaT) of the Lake Baiyangdian area during the mid-Holocene, which were respectively 3.5 °C and 7.7 °C higher than today. Our findings provide a scientific basis for landscape reconstruction and paleoclimate modelling in North China.”
[SEPP Comment: Lake Baiyangdian is the largest freshwater lake in North China Plain.]
The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in the Bay of Biscay
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
From CO2Science.
Changing Seas
Reuters: How to Lie with Facts
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 25, 2022
UK Sea Level Rise Speeding Up–Claim Met Office: Data Proves Otherwise
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2022
“The Met Office report deliberately distorts what the data is actually saying, with the intent to mislead the public into believing the ever-sillier predictions of apocalyptic sea level rise coming our way.”
CDN by the Sea: Marseille, France
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
“Spread the word. It might lead panicked celebrities to dump their vacation condos and we could pick one up for a bargain. But that outcome would require the celebrity class to actually believe the climate hype, and nothing in their conduct, from their choice of transport to their real estate purchases, suggests that they do.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Logic And Proportion
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 29, 2022
“Heatwave melts nearly 6,000,000,000,000 kgs of Greenland’s ice in 3 days”
Thick sea ice in the Western Arctic is not good habitat for polar bears, seals, or walrus
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 23, 2022
“This could be a repeat of last year, when there was so much Chukchi Sea ice over the summer that not a word was heard from the media and doomsday conservationists about supposedly ‘starving’ Pacific walrus ‘trapped’ on Alaskan and Russian beaches due to lack of ice, described in detail in my book, Fallen Icon.”
Most Hudson Bay polar bears are still offshore, excellent ice conditions for late July
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 29, 2022
CO2 Levels Accompanied By Arctic Sea Ice Growth!
Climatologists Embarrassed: Increase In Global CO2 Levels Accompanied By Arctic Sea Ice Growth!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 26, 2022
Expert admits polar bears in Svalbard are thriving despite the greatest loss of sea ice in the Arctic
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 26, 2022
1925 – “remarkable shrinkage of the glaciers”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Banning Modern Agriculture and High Crop Yields?
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, July 24, 2022
“Biden EPA policies will raise prices and harm crops and environment, in name of saving species”
Lowering Standards
“NASA says”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2022
BBC Weather Forecasters Don’t Like The Truth!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
“A couple of years ago, the BBC’s senior management took the decision to build climate change indoctrination into regular programming, including weather forecasts. It is unsurprising that viewers are now reacting.”
[SEPP Comment: BBC accused critics as trolls. According to Wikipedia an Internet troll “is a person who posts inflammatory, insincere, digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.), a newsgroup, forum, chat room, online video game, or blog), with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses or manipulating others’ perception. Justified criticism is not trolling.]
British MET Climate Change Clergy Face Unprecedented Social Media Uprising
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 30, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
So you’re cool with adaptation?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
If This Isn’t a Climate Emergency, What Is?
President Biden, at a climate event, stopped short of declaring an emergency, casting the day mostly as a reminder of all that has not been done.
By Evan Osnos, The New Yorker, July 21, 2022
Driest Start Since 1976? No, 2010 Was Drier
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
As heat records fall in Northeast, some city dwellers flee
By Jeff McMillan, AP, Via The Hill, July 24, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Those who could afford it, never left the cities in the summer before? For Newport? Maine? The Adirondacks?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
UN Warns Heatwaves Will Happen More Often Until 2060s
By Staff, AFP, July 19, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Air pollution ‘IS causing dementia’: UK Government advisers acknowledge decades-old link for first time
Toxic airborne particles long been associated with rapidly rising dementia rates
Now a major review on behalf of UK Health Security Agency has confirmed link
Primary way it happens is when PM2.5 gets in blood and causes poor circulation
By Connor Boyd, Mail on Line, July 27, 2022
No link to the “major independent review:
“a glut of cheap power” [sarcasm]
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 29, 2022
Britain will soon have a glut of cheap power, and world-leading batteries to store it
Trailblazing Britain is leading the most ambitious rollout of offshore wind in the world
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph, UK, July 28, 2022
Hansen on Climate/Energy Policy: An Evaluation and Rebuttal
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 28, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Disinformation on Climate Change Leaves Lasting Mark as World Heats
Even as surveys show the public generally has become more concerned about climate change, a sizeable number of Americans have become even more distrustful of the scientific consensus.
By David Klepper, NBC Philadelphia, Changing Climate, July 26, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Al Gore: “climate deniers are … similar to all of those … law … officers in Uvalde, Texas”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 25, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
US bakes in extreme heat as federal climate action flops
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 25, 2022
Caption under a photo: “A woman wipes her forehead at the top of the stairs to the Lincoln Memorial during a heatwave in Washington, D.C.” [No air conditioning at the open memorial?]
“’We will see worse going forward simply because climate change will continue to make the planet warmer and warmer,’ said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist and dean of the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability.”
Ban the Ads? Fossil fuels are “like Tobacco” say clueless bully marketers who use fossil fuels
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 25, 2022
Mainstream media must be held accountable for its promotion of lunatic climate alarmists
As cynical media members wring their hands and clutch their pearls over the real-world harms that can come from reckless rhetoric, they themselves should be held accountable for the damaging hyperbole they traffic.
By Ashley Sadler, Life Site, July 26, 2022
Red Hot In Germany!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Uncivil Society: Climate Alarmists’ Last Stand?
By Roger Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 27, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Name That Boon: SEC Proposes Rules on ESG Fund Names & Disclosures
Posted by Matt Filosa, et al, Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, July 19, 2022
“While the ESG debate will likely continue to cause confusion in the marketplace, it is clear that stakeholders are closely examining the potential misalignment between company or investor ESG claims and their actions (i.e.; “greenwashing”).”
[SEPP Comment: The biggest misalignment is between green wishes and fact (physical evidence).]
Questioning European Green
Putin Mocks EU: “Looking For Culprits” To Blame For Their “Unreasonable And Unpredictable” Energy Decisions
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 23, 2022
Putin has Europe where he wants it
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 26, 2022
Net Zero produced the most dramatic fall in European energy since the late Middle Ages
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 28, 2022
New Study Shows 30 Years Of EU’s Failed Climate Policies Behind Energy Crisis
By Benny Pieser, Climate Change Dispatch, July 11, 2022
Link to study: Europe’s Green Experiment: A costly failure in unilateral climate policy
By John Constable, GWPF, 2022
FES 2022–More Wishful Thinking
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2022
“There is only one conclusion that can be drawn from this truly frightening and childishly naive analysis – there will be electricity rationing in the not-too-distant future. No longer will we be able to rely on a secure, reliable energy supply.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Biden’s Green Spending Bill Will Make Little Difference
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
Green Dreams, Inflationary Realities
We must find ways to combat climate change without incurring devastating inflation, greater class division, the immiseration of the middle class, and the destitution of the poor.
By Joel Kotkin and Hügo Krüger, Quillette, July 27, 2022
Long Read
Bogus DDT Scare Killing Thousands
By Vajay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, July 12, 2022
Non-Green Jobs
German industry has started shutting down: One third plan or have started to reduce production
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 29, 2022
Net Zero Policies Will Turn Europe Into a “Trivial and Incapable” Backwater
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2022
Funding Issues
Guyana, Suriname Oil Bonanza to Boost Economies, Help Meet Global Demand
By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, July 25, 2022
The Political Games Continue
Inflation Reduction Act—or Radical Green New Deal?
By Jack Spencer, Heritage Foundation, July 28, 2022
Schumer-Manchin agree on billions of dollars for electric vehicles, solar panels and other clean-energy priorities
By Alexander Bolton, The Hill, July 27, 2022
Manchin Backs Climate Bill In Stunning U-Turn
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, July 28, 2022
Manchin-Schumer deal could be historic win on climate change
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 28, 2022
Litigation Issues
Time to Cross Examine Climatists
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: From the standpoint of a trial attorney with comments.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Biden administration announces initiatives to boost solar energy use
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 27, 2022
Link to program: Community Solar Subscription Platform
By Staff, Energy.gov, Accessed July 27, 2022
“The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Community Solar Partnership (NCSP) will partner with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to develop and pilot a digital platform that will identify and make community solar with verified savings more accessible to households participating in government-run low-income support programs.”
“The partnership will support the NCSP target to enable community solar systems to power the equivalent of 5 million households and create $1 billion in energy bill savings by 2025.”
[SEPP Comment: Boldface added: $1 billion in savings in Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York and Washington, D.C?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Shouldn’t Undermine Biden’s Sustainability, Manufacturing Goals
By Steve Pociask, Real Clear Energy, July 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A big difference between what President Biden says and what his administration does?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Emergency contingency plans for a gas or electricity supply shortage in coming months include public appeals to use less energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 24, 2022
Next Prime Minister warned not to wreck UK shale gas opportunity yet again
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 28, 2022
UK: Lights out for winter? Warning 12m people will be in energy poverty
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 27, 2022
Energy Issues – Australia
Wrecking a Nation One Electricity Bill at a Time
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, July 29, 2022
Our Green Future? Energy Impoverished Aussies Risking Carbon Monoxide Poisoning to Stay Warm
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 23, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Liberty Energy: Playing Offense
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 29, 2022
This One ERCOT Chart Explains Why Texas Is Having Electricity Shortages
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, July 24, 2022
“The punchline here is obvious: at the very moment that the Lone Star State desperately needs a resilient electric grid — one that can deliver reliable and affordable juice during the hottest and coldest days — consumers and the grid operators at ERCOT have been left to hope that the wind starts blowing.”
Claim: Offering a Premium for Reliable Energy Would Hinder the Green Transition
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 24, 2-22
[SEPP Comment: Abolishing subsidies for unreliable energy will do the same.]
Renewables Falter As Texas Power Grid Sees Record Demand
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, July 26, 2022
“But just when Texas needed the most of all its power generation supply, wind and solar power output was well below capacity due to a lack of wind in the high-pressure weather system and cloud cover over much of West Texas. These issues with wind and solar electricity generation highlighted, once again, the dependability of clean energy sources on the whims of weather and the unreliability of consistently dispatching large amounts of power to the grid when consumption hits records.”
“Texas tops the nationwide ranking of installed wind power capacity and is second only to California in operating solar capacity, according to the American Clean Power Association.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Saudi Arabia’s ability to pump extra oil is more limited than it seems and is already near the sustainable maximum, report says
By Brian Evans, Business Insider, July 20, 2022
“Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has boosted imports of Russian fuel oil to use for increased power generation, freeing up more of its own crude supply to export.”
[SEPP Comment: Buy low, sell high.]
Can The U.S. LNG Industry Live Up To Expectations?
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, July 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Particularly with an administration curtailing production.]
Fracking Equipment Shortage Adds To Shale Drillers’ Woes
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, July 28, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Variable Energy Resources and Three Economic Challenges: Policymaker Guide
By Staff, Carnegie Mellon University,
[20 to 30% replacement range, not Net Zero]
The Texas Offshore Wind Fable
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 28, 2022
GE Renewable Energy Posts $419 Million Loss
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 27, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Could Natural Hydrogen Kill Green Hydrogen?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 24, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Waiting for demonstration project.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Connecticut Steps Up To Save The Planet
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 26, 2022
Visualized: Lithium Ion Battery Vs. Hydrogen Fuel Cell
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, July 18, 2022
Energy Department gives major loan to facility for processing electric vehicle materials
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 27, 2022
Health, Energy, and Climate
Shifting Sands: Unsound Science And Unsafe Regulation
By Stan Young, ACSH, July 15, 2022
Link to paper: Shifting Sands: Report II: Unsound Science & Unsafe Regulation
Flimsy Food Findings: Food Frequency Questionnaires, False Positives, and Fallacious Procedures in Nutritional Epidemiology
By Young, Kindzierski, and Randall, National Association of Scholars, 2022
Environmental Industry
Greenpeace accused of siding with Putin and putting British security at risk
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 26, 2022
“Greenpeace miss[ed] the point totally (and probably deliberately) – if we don’t burn gas from the North Sea, we will burn gas from somewhere else.
“And their very policies which have already led to much bigger losses of output in Europe, which has ultimately led to Putin’s control of European energy.”
Other News that May Be of Interest
Let’s Not Paper Over Our Recycling Success
By Heidi Brock, Real Clear Energy, July 26, 2022
CDN by the lake
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
Why The West Is Destroying Itself
My interview with Swiss monthly magazine, Schweizer Monat
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, July 26, 2022
“We see this in the United States and very dramatically in its western part, where an ideology of de-civilization is being promoted, which is fundamentally a nihilistic philosophy. We see the destruction of some of the greatest cities of the West Coast, such as Seattle, Portland, San Francisco or Los Angeles, caused by people who reject Western civilization, but offer no positive alternative.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Too Much Snow In New Zealand
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Do the children know what it is?]
Eating Too Much Protein Makes Pee a Problem Pollutant in the U.S.
Protein-packed diets add excess nitrogen to the environment through urine, rivaling pollution from agricultural fertilizers
By Sasha Warren, Scientific American, July 27, 2022 [H/t Climate Depot]
[SEPP Comment: The increased greenhouse effect from sewage nitrogen is trivial.]
Earlier incarnations of puritanism ended when its proponents became laughingstock
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 26, 2022
Monarchs deposed by climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 27, 2022
Exposure to ‘forever chemicals’ costs Americans billions: study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, July 26, 2022
“The study was scheduled to be published Tuesday but was apparently delayed, according to an NYU Langone spokesperson.”
Justin Rowlatt Thinks We Never Had Droughts!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2022
John Kerry rebuked over intervention in Tory leadership election
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 25, 2022
“Only a year ago President Biden criticised Russia for interfering in the US election and claimed Washington would never do such a thing.”
[SEPP Comment: The meddling “Ugly American?”]
ARTICLES
1. The Schumer-Manchin Tax and Subsidy Pact
New taxes and price controls to pay for green corporate welfare for the politically favored.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 28, 2022
TWTW Summary: Key part discussed above in This Week
*******************
2. Why Pretend Green Pork Will Stop Climate Change?
Because organized groups and politicians want the money, and the public wants to be a sucker.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSU, July 29, 2022
TWTW Summary: Key part discussed above in This Week
The quote of the week needs repeating !
Quote of the Week: “We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert.” – J Robert Oppenheimer. [H/t Paul Homewood]
Everything is getting better every day, in each and every way.
The location of ground based temperature sensors needs to be an early priority in a 2nd Trump administration, partly to help de-program and calm down young climate crazies. I would also watch for well-funded green energy groups to start tampering with and IR-lasering the ground sensors as soon as the sites are moved.