Two-thirds of New York COVID-19 patients were sheltering in place!

Guest “set our people free!” by David Middleton

Shelter in place has been an EPIC FAIL…

‘Shocking’: 66% of new coronavirus patients in N.Y. stayed home: Cuomo

By DENIS SLATTERY
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |
MAY 06, 2020

ALBANY — The majority of recently hospitalized coronavirus patients in New York are people who have followed the precaution of staying home, Gov. Cuomo said Wednesday.

The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.

[…]

“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” Cuomo said during a briefing on Long Island. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”

[…]

NY Daily News

Apparently, shelter in place just “fattened” the curve. Now… let’s flatten the hell out of this curve…

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

294 thoughts on “Two-thirds of New York COVID-19 patients were sheltering in place!

  1. Anybody see those numbers of covid deaths in long term care homes in New York?
    Ya, I though so – Cuomo is smart, if you don’t report them, you can’t be criticized about them – well done Washington Compost, New York Slimes – you done some real investigative journalisming there.

    • “journalisming”, rickk? Thanks, that made me laugh.

      Stay safe and healthy, all.
      Bob

      • I posted the following note in wattsup BEFORE this article by David Middleton was published. Notice the similarities. Now if I were a typical false-news-fabricator from the mainstream media, I’d concoct a wild story around these facts, something like this:

        It is clear from these events that the intent of the leftists in charge of big cities like New York and London was to “cull the herd”, by deliberately exposing the elderly and infirm to the Covid-19 illness – such as herding them into crowded quarters, exposing them to infected care workers, etc…

        Why else would the number and mortality of the Covid-19 illness be so much higher in leftist-run cities than elsewhere? And why would the leftists who run these cities want this to happen?

        First, many of the far-left are neo-Malthusians, Club-of-Rome types, who want to reduce the world’s population. Second, killing off the elderly and infirm cuts down on pensions and welfare costs. Third, older people tend to vote Republican, because they are too sensible to be Democrats. Fourth, prolonging the death toll could lengthen the lockdowns and further damage the economy, demoralize and impoverish the populace and make them more dependent on government handouts, paving the way for a permanent socialist state. Fifth, extending the lockdowns could hurt the re-election prospects of Republicans, including one Donald Trump.

        But I’m really not like them, those odious false-news-fabricators of the left, so I would never make up a story like that.

        Sarc/off 🙂

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/06/using-excess-deaths-to-correct-chinese-virus-mortality-counts-coronavirus/#comment-2989410
        [excerpt}

        I wrote on 21Mar2020 based on the data available at that time:
        “Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
        This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.”
        I still say that was the correct call.
        What actually happened DURING THE FULL LOCKDOWN in places like London and New York City was THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT I STATED:
        – A full lockdown of the total population and the economy, costing trillions of dollars, killing the economy, harming billions of low-income people and over-protecting the low-risk population.
        – Incredibly incompetent, almost criminal lack-of-protection of the high-risk population, such that ~half of the deaths occurred among the elderly in old-age homes.
        – Delay in building herd immunity, such that Covid-19 may return in the Fall of 2020.

        • Yes, locking down the low risk population is counter productive.

          Again people – lock down NEVER was to reduce infections or deaths! It was to slow the rate of infection and death so as not to overwhelm hospitals.

          The SAME number of infections and deaths occur with or without a lockdown, in the absence of a vaccine. And a vaccine is at least 18 months away, and may never happen. (corona family is also among common cold viruses, and no vaccine is possible there)

          Only herd immunity can knock this down. And locking down the low risk people delays herd immunity!

          If you owe money to the bill collectors, hiding from them does not eliminate the dept! It delays paying the piper!

          All these idiots in the lamestream media keep saying lockdowns save lives! This is false. Lock down only delays the inevitable at this point.

          • There is no herd immunity to the frequently mutating virus….herd immunity is conferred by acquiring antibodies to a virus, either from infection of vaccination.
            If the sars-cov-2 virus is a rapidly-mutating virus, antibodies to the original virus will be of little use. Another horror-story could be that the antibodies are not long-term antibodies. I refer you to the common scientists monologue: “The most serious risk to the future of Homo_Sapiens is the virus”
            Now, if it was possible to confer the properties of the HIV virus to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, or similar, we could really be in deep ****.
            And somebody will do, or already has.

          • JohnM,
            You said: “If the sars-cov-2 virus is a rapidly-mutating virus…”
            And that’s where I stopped reading, because all the data we currently have says that it is NOT rapidly mutating. So everything you said is just you spreading your own fears, like a monkey flinging poo.

          • Why bother reading more? You just find this bit of wild speculation: “Now, if it was possible to confer the properties of the HIV virus to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, or similar, we could really be in deep ****. And somebody will do, or already has.” If you want to write fiction, fine, but don’t try to pass it off as deep thinking.

        • Small states also suffer from foolish and venal public officials. Maine is one example. Phase I of its official reaction failed to protect the most vulnerable to dying with C19 (known BEFORE Phase I began) and hurt severely 25-30% of the entire population. It also devastated the healthcare system. And, it FAILED to flatten the curve. Developments weeks BEFORE Phase I began flattened the curve. The developments include precautions VOLUNTARILY implemented by Mainers concerned for their health and the health of others.

          Harm Caused by Maine’s Official Reaction to Coronavirus
          (thru early May 2020)
          Harmed Coronavirus
          # How Deaths Cases
          K-college students 200,000+ denied education 0 30(a)
          Working age Mainers 124,574(b1) unemployed 12(b2) 810(b2)
          Healthcare workers 10970(b1) ” 191(c1)
          Hospitals
          All beds 1062(c2) underutilized 37(c3)
          Critical Care beds 162(c2) ” 18(c3)
          Ventilators 288(c2) ” 12(c3)
          Lost revenues (d) $250 mill/month ”
          $1.6+ million per hospitalized coronavirus patient

          Notes:
          (a) amongst people younger than 20. Source: Maine CDC
          (b1) Source: Maine Dept. Labor
          (b2) estimate for Mainers age 20-65 using Maine CDC data
          (c1) Mainers hospitalized with coronavirus from outbreak’s start to 5 May
          Source: Maine CDC
          (c2) Reserved to treat coronavirus cases. Sources: Maine CDC & IHME
          (c3) in use 6 May. Source: Maine CDC
          (d) source: NEWS CENTER Maine 24 April 2020

          The # of Mainers hurt by Phase I is probably closer to 325,000 than to the number who have thus far filed unemployment claims. The 325,000 includes the unemployeds’ family members, people (plus their family members) whose healthcare treatments were postponed so hospitals could treat C19 cases, people needing care but who are avoiding health care facilities out of fear of becoming infected with C19 and others.

          The 325,000 will suffer more than the normal number of deaths, for reasons discussed in other WUWT posts. The additional deaths will almost certainly exceed deaths with C19 amongst this group.

          • Drat, the table format collapsed; so, the points it was to make are described below.

            200,000 Maine students are being denied school services. In contrast, 0 have died with C19 and only 30 have confirmed C19 cases from the outbreak’s start to early May.

            124,574 Mainers have filed unemployment claims. In contrast, just 12 Mainers age 20-65 may have died with C19, and 810 confirmed cases have occurred in this age group.

            The first paragraph needs a correction: 40-45% (not 25-30%) of Maine’s population is suffering from Phase I’s adverse consequences.

            10,970 healthcare & social assistance workers have filed unemployment claims. That compares with 191 people hospitalized with C19 over the entire course of the outbreak.

            The state ordered hospitals to reallocate 1062 hospital beds to treat C19 cases. Only 37 were used on 6 May.

            162 critical care beds allocated for C19 cases. Only 18 were used.

            288 ventilators allocated. Only 12 were used.

            Revenues received by Maine’s hospitals are down $250 million per month because hospitals are underutilized. That works out to $1.6+ million per hospitalized C19 case.

          • In South Africa, the number of ARRESTS for “breaking the lockdown” is about an order of magnitude of the number of cases, and two orders of magnitude of the number of deaths. With Parliament closed down, and a “State Of Disaster” (which was passed to handle things like earthquakes and tsunamis) proclaimed, there are a number of “Virus Command Council” members who are using regulations to fulfil their megalomania dreams! So, shops can only sell certain types of stuff, no hot food available except by delivery, a curfew from 8 pm to 5 am, outdoors exercise only allowed from 6 am to 9 am (in a Southern Hemisphere Autumn – and you can be arrested for being outside after 9:01 or for standing still), sale of tobacco and alcohol prohibited (even Carrie Nation didn’t go that far).
            And the ANC government isn’t telling anyone anything, except that THE NUMBER OF CASES IS GOING UP! Now, since the government is slowly increasing the number of tests, that is not surprising!

    • Yep, and that elevated mortality in those nursing homes would be a huge factor in increasing the proportion of fatalities among those considered to be sheltering in place. Nationwide about 1/2 of all COVID 19 deaths have been occupants of nursing homes/extended care facilities. I suspect that idiot Cuomo caused the proportion in NY to be elevated over that level when he intentionally seeded those kinds of facilities with people known to be infected.

      • That’s more than half the total deaths in NY right there. Cuomo needs to go on trial for murder right now, so his successor can change the policy in time to save some lives.

        • Your kidding right? Cuomo’s handling of this event has many democrats longing for him to be the Presidential candidate instead of creepy Joe. Failure, criminality, or incompetence is a necessary checkmark on the resume of successful democrat candidates for high office these days.

      • This was my first thought too!

        Yep, and that elevated mortality in those nursing homes would be a huge factor in increasing the proportion of fatalities among those considered to be sheltering in place.

        Were nursing homes really counted in this???

    • “Anybody see those numbers of covid deaths in long term care homes in New York?

      ya every day yesterday here were 53

        • hmmm.
          https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/cuomo-was-wrong-to-order-nursing-homes-to-accept-coronavirus-patients/

          “Gov. Andrew Cuomo has finally admitted — tacitly and partially, anyway — the mistake that was state health chief Howard Zucker’s order that nursing homes must admit coronavirus-positive patients.
          On Sunday, Cuomo announced a new regulation: Such patients must now test negative for the virus before hospitals can return them to nursing homes. Yet the gov also admitted that COVID-19 cases might still go to the facilities via other routes, and didn’t explicitly overrule Zucker’s March 25 mandate that homes must accept people despite their testing status — indeed, couldn’t even require a test pre-admission.”

          You were saying?

          • Says . . . who, you?

            “No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. NHs are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission.”

            https://tinyurl.com/y8xxavby

    • “The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.”

      …about 1/4th came from homes…but these are “new” cases….so it’s still going on

      “According to the data,….. 18% of new cases came from nursing homes, 4% from assisted-living facilities, 2% from congregate-care facilities,……. 2% were homeless, less than 1% from prisons and 8% were marked as “other.””

    • It may be the shelter in place causing the deaths. Lonely sick people locked down and sheltering at home in an extended cold and bitter winter could be the source of a emergency admission that not only does not respond to Ventilation and has the symptoms of respiratory distress.

      The mystery death could be he little known colorless odorless gas Mono Carbon Mono Oxide.

      From Latitude above:
      “The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new corona virus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.”

      CO poisoning is common in winter in the portion of the population dying and would have been magnified by the Arctic weather, home cooking and sealing themselves in their dwellings.

      And the symptoms of CO poisoning are often confused with Influenza:

      From Icisil below:

      I’m certain that many of them died because they went to the hospital, where doctors didn’t know what the hell they were doing and gave them a disease called being on a ventilator.

      …when COVID-19 patients first began flooding the [NYC] hospital’s critical care units in early March… The sort of paradigm at the time was to intubate early,” Caputo tells Yahoo Life. This made sense for patients who were clearly experiencing respiratory distress. The problem was, many patients arriving to the ER weren’t clearly in distress — they were experiencing what’s referred to as “silent hypoxics,” or breathing trouble with no symptoms. This means that despite appearing normal, their oxygen saturation level, or the amount of oxygen in the blood (normally between 95 and 100) has fallen sharply.

      “These people would be on their cellphones, or just having a conversation, [seemingly fine but] with oxygen saturation in the 70s, 60s or even 50s. … These patients were getting intubated because everybody didn’t know how to approach them,” says Caputo. “So nurses were freaking out, doctors were puzzled and it was chaos.

  2. This is what happens when you have elitists running government science agencies.

    • What should we have expected from government toxicological experts that gave us (allowed?) the use of HAZMAT suits in hot weather picking up what was supposed to be oil globules off the beach? These [natural seeps, one of which the spill originated from] were once the source for beach deposits used to patch ships. A former CEO of Sigma Xi is urging scientists to become PROACTIVE with a piece on their blog which is very much preaching, mostly against anti-vaxers, who exist, but sounds like lumping all concerns as deniers. When the scientists do policy, who checks them? That’s where they are headed.

      What is a mathematical epidemiologist?

  3. Now consider that half those Covid patients who were sheltering at home and that actually died probably died from a myriad of causes other than COVID. Homicide to head injury, bad colds to cancer all cataloged as Corona deaths because bureaucrat gotta CYA.

    • Shelter In Place was not meant to kill the virus, only to slow it down. EPIC FAIL?? No.

      • What actually does “slow it down” mean, in this case? — from what speed to what speed?

        Slowing doesn’t mean stopping, right? So, it gets where it’s going to go, eventually, right? — delaying the inevitable? Millions will get infected in two weeks, or, “slowed down”, millions will get infected in two months — what have we accomplished there, by shutting down society and plunging it into economic ruin?

        • We have needed a debt jubilee for a long time. Maybe this will finally do it. In ancient times every new king/emperor started off with a debt jubilee.

          Bankruptcies were supposed to emulate that but then it became impossible for the working poor to do a Chapter 7.

      • And led to a worsening of vitamin D deficiency, the second most common deficiency behind iron. I assume this is especially true for the denizens of the concrete jungle.

        • “slowing it down” was I understand to keep severe cases within hospital capacity. A reasonable objective. But this somehow morphed into a total lockdown. Which as others have pointed out, cuts vitamin D levels, increases virus transmission via close-quartering and air-conditioning circulation in units, while dramatically reducing quality of life and thus increasing stress and depression. It’s like Xi Jinping has the west in his control already.

          • and air-conditioning circulation

            With most all Public Schools (KG to 12th grade) having total A/C (heating & cooling), …. and students riding crowded School Busses, ….. all it takes is one (1) student coming to school a hacking, coughing and sneezing as a result of some pathogen, …. and before the school day is over the majority of all students will most likely have been subjected to said pathogen via the A/C’s re-circulation of the contaminated air.

            Not all subjected students will get sick, …….. but sometimes so many do they have to close the school.

            Hospitals, nursing homes, elderly care facilities, etc. ……. have the same re-circulation of contaminated air problem.

            Like the ole saying goes, …….. “Don’t bunch up cause they will get ya all with one grenade”.

      • That was the announced reason. The real reason that any restrictions still exist, now that they’ve been proven not to save lives any longer, is that the Democratic mayors and governors who imposed them are determined to keep the economy hosed until election day in November, in the hope of defeating Trump.

        What we need right now is a nice, predatory lawyer who can file class action suits demanding our immediate freedom plus damages against each one of those needless tyrants.

    • I’m certain that many of them died because they went to the hospital, where doctors didn’t know what the hell they were doing and gave them a disease called being on a ventilator.

      …when COVID-19 patients first began flooding the [NYC] hospital’s critical care units in early March… The sort of paradigm at the time was to intubate early,” Caputo tells Yahoo Life. This made sense for patients who were clearly experiencing respiratory distress. The problem was, many patients arriving to the ER weren’t clearly in distress — they were experiencing what’s referred to as “silent hypoxics,” or breathing trouble with no symptoms. This means that despite appearing normal, their oxygen saturation level, or the amount of oxygen in the blood (normally between 95 and 100) has fallen sharply.

      “These people would be on their cellphones, or just having a conversation, [seemingly fine but] with oxygen saturation in the 70s, 60s or even 50s. … These patients were getting intubated because everybody didn’t know how to approach them,” says Caputo. “So nurses were freaking out, doctors were puzzled and it was chaos.

      How a free, extremely low-risk ER procedure is saving lives from coronavirus
      https://sports.yahoo.com/how-a-free-extremely-low-risk-er-technique-is-saving-lives-from-coronavirus-215640425.html

        • Every clear-eyed critical care doctor will admit that we sometimes ventilate people more out of wishful-thinking, desperation, or fear of lawsuit, than scientifically-based hope for recovery.

          I spoke with Dr. Mayo because, as a New York City critical care doctor, he really is in the belly of the beast as far as this pandemic goes in the Anglosphere. (Also, as he is currently home sick with Covid-19, he had plenty of time to talk.) He described increasing pressure from hospital administrators, throughout the city, to put Covid-19 patients on ventilators earlier than would otherwise be recommended. The administrators believe that hooking Covid-19 patients up to a closed-circuit breathing apparatus (i.e. the ventilator) may decrease their infectivity to hospital staff.

          • Is hospital administrators putting pressure on doctors to intubate patients early only about prioritizing hospital workers’ safety above patient well-being?

            [Dr.] Jensen said, “Hospital administrators might well want to see COVID-19 attached to a discharge summary or a death certificate. Why? Because if it’s a straightforward, garden-variety pneumonia that a person is admitted to the hospital for – if they’re Medicare – typically, the diagnosis-related group lump sum payment would be $5,000. But if it’s COVID-19 pneumonia, then it’s $13,000, and if that COVID-19 pneumonia patient ends up on a ventilator, it goes up to $39,000.

            Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators
            https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

          • icisil May 10, 2020 at 5:30 am
            Is hospital administrators putting pressure on doctors to intubate patients early only about prioritizing hospital workers’ safety above patient well-being?
            —————————
            only possible where a free health service does not exist. Most of EU and UK have a free health service for all (ALL – including those with zero money) there is no extra money for invasive treatments. Where does this leave your theory?

        • “Most of EU and UK have a free health service for all”

          What the hell are you talking about? What’s a “free service”?

      • Carbon Monoxide poisoning symptoms and the sick, aged aged and impoverished people isolated in a cold climate would be ripe for it.
        Explains why smokers, those sleeping rough were not dropping, yet the diabetics and aged scared into shutting themselves in and cooking at home are the demographic most susceptible.

  4. But, why is this? The answer I am hearing is ‘shared ventilation’, a common situation in NYC. This needs to be looked into seriously.

    • That would make sense. I suppose delivery via Amazon packages could be another source.

      • Could be nosocomial infection. Someone gets cough due to cold and heads to hospital out of fear it’s covid. Catches covid in waiting room from other infected people.

    • Guests, deliveries, taking the trash out, etc.

      You think these people were storing 4-6 weeks worth of food and supplies in their apartments?

    • JON SALMI said “‘shared ventilation’, a common situation in NYC.”

      Ever spend time in residential buildings in NYC, Jon? I have on numerous occasions over the past 6 decades

      In non-residential buildings (like office buildings) in NYC, the heating-ventilating-and-air-conditioning systems share common supply, return, and exhaust ductwork. I’ve never seem that in residential buildings in NYC, which typically rely on steam heating supplied by the New York City Steam System (primarily from Con-Ed) through the building owner and cooling via window A/C units furnished by the resident.

      Stay safe and healthy, all.
      Bob

      • Bingo. I have never been in New York City proper beyond passing through the airport from what I heard, most people live in apartments with ventilation. I keep hearing how the virus travels only fix feet and it is only partly aerosolized. And if you believe that I’ve got some nice a bridge in Brooklyn for sale.

      • Depends on housing. Most AC and heating is window, right, but central ventilation for bathrooms exist. As was shown by aerosol study in Chinese hospitals bathrooms are quite a source for circulating aerosols with virus.

        • Ron wrote, “Most AC and heating is window, right…”

          Wrong. Apparently you didn’t read or understand my comment, because the heating does not come from window A/C units. It’s centralized heating sourced by a city steam system…think piping systems with radiators or baseboard radiation in the apartments. The city steam can be reduced in pressure before being distributed throughout the building. Or, in other cases, the city steam is run through a centralized heat exchanger in the building to heat hot water for heating.

          Additionally, any common ductwork for apartment-building bathrooms in NYC is exhaust, not supply. The air is drawn from the bathrooms. And why would you think that a study of public bathrooms in Chinese hospitals has any bearing on this discussion?

          Stay safe and healthy, all.

          Bob

          • Exhaust vents require a flow of intake/makeup air from somewhere, for example hallways. So there is some potential for airborne transmission. There are often garbage shoots in buildings, elevators, doors, etc. that can result in mixing between floors and as sources of potential surface transmission.

          • “Additionally, any common ductwork for apartment-building bathrooms in NYC is exhaust, not supply.”
            The dust coming out of the vent in my bathroom spoiling my bathtub in one day tells me otherwise about one-directional flow.

            “And why would you think that a study of public bathrooms in Chinese hospitals has any bearing on this discussion?”
            It is evidence that bathrooms can have a higher load of aerosols than patient rooms. Doesn’t have to translate to private bathrooms but also doesn’t exclude the possibility of this as a transmission pathway.

          • require a flow of intake/makeup air from somewhere,

            All NYC apartments have a means for “intake/makeup air” …. otherwise the in habitants would become asphyxiated.

    • Plus of course the obvious one…they simply lied about how solitary/safe they kept themselves and how hygienic they were.

      They got it from somewhere external. Its not magic.

    • This is a report on SARS in Hong Kong –

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/

      These were the lessons learned:
      The lessons learned by Hong Kong can be summarized as follows:

      SARS differed from previous epidemic infectious diseases in its explosive spread, which caught the health and hospital authorities by surprise and ill-prepared.

      Inadequate epidemiological information about the disease hampered the prompt application of effective control measures. Insufficient communication with the public led to panic and thus weakened public cooperation and support.

      Because there were no specified infectious disease hospitals, there were difficulties in designating hospitals for the isolation and treatment of SARS patients.

      The SARS epidemic in Hong Kong not only affected the health of the people but also had social, economic, and humanitarian repercussions. It unveiled deficiencies in the public health arena and in coordination between the Department of Health and the Hospital Authority—reflected in lack of action between 22 February, when the index patient was admitted to Kwong Wah Hospital, and 4 March when the local contact arrived at the Prince of Wales Hospital. In that interval, the alarm could have been raised and front-line staff could have prepared themselves.

      There was also deficient communication between the Secretary (Ministry) level responsible for health policy and the management level responsible for operation of the hospitals. Management inertia at various levels hampered decision-making and delayed implementation of effective measures.

      The SARS epidemic also shed light on basic failings of the existing healthcare system in Hong Kong—overcrowded wards; poor ventilation in some hospitals; lack of isolation facilities; inadequate intensive care facilities; staff already working under heavy pressure; difficulty in isolating and cohorting patients with suspected or possible SARS, particularly at the point of admission and immediately thereafter.

      The effect of the outbreak on intensive care and nursing personnel was disproportionately high. This worsened the pressures on other branches, particularly during the recovery phase when normal services had to be resumed.

      Healthcare workers were put at special risk by certain procedures including use of nebulizers, endotracheal suction and intubation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, nasogastric feeding, and the use of high flow rates of oxygen.9 The high risk presented by these procedures has implications for medical practice and organization of hospital care in the future.

      There is a need to strengthen the exchange of epidemiological information on infectious diseases, especially the emergence of new infections, between the health authorities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The establishment of a Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Hong Kong should meet this need.

  5. Now that we are aware of the profiles of the vulnerable groups, like over 65, obese, heart related conditions, low D3, etc,etc,etc – this kind of thing should not be such a surprise.

    I get the impression that the lumbering public health bureaucracies cannot keep up with the latest knowledge.

  6. What an enigma, David! By the way, I saw Judge Clay Jenkins on CNN International this morning, and he was muy simpatico with the hosts, even going so far as to assign the release of the hair salon operator in Dallas to the “Tea Party”, and from his tone I don’t think he was referring to the kerfuffle in Boston Harbor. Try to avoid this clown. Stay sane and safe.

    • His honor’s outrageous remarks inspired me to donate to the Go Fund Me for jailed salon owner Shelley Luther. This man is unsuitable to hold a position of authority. We are not serfs or subjects.

  7. Obviously the virus mutated into a more infectious strain that can spread over the internet now.

    (hey that’s the way virologists do it)

    • icisil
      That has all the makings of a good bumper sticker: “Virologists do it over the internet”

  8. Not surprising since those sheltering in place will tend to be those most vulnerable to the virus. This adds further weight to the argument that the lockdown with its associated economic devastation is a hugely disproportionate and blunt edged response. As many have argued before, simply encouraging the vulnerable to self isolate together with the use of face masks in public would have been at least as effective and far less a damaging

  9. Duhhhhh…..98% of the people in NY are staying at home, so the proportion of “new” cases is meaningless.

  10. A compelling testimony by Dr Judy Mikovits exposing Dr Fauci and his Plandemic co-conspirators as brutal and heartless profiteers who are quite literally responsible for the death of millions.
    Original: Dr. Anthony Fauci’s ex-employee, was jailed, finally tells all:
    This video got posted on YouTube and didn’t last the day after over a million views.
    Looks like the truth really IS the enemy of the state.

    Plandemic Part 1 – Dr Judy Mikovits
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/T6ByOc9NOgW9/

  11. Reality is always “shocking” leftists, but they never seem to learn what it is that’s shocking them.

  12. Middleton again mistakes correlation with causation. For example we can also claim that two-thirds of New York COVID-19 patients were breathing oxygen before hospital admission.

    • … mistaking correlation for causation, …

      You mean like saying locking down society prevented a larger number of COVID-19 deaths?

      How do we really know that the virus wouldn’t have slowed without this, as part of the process that viruses undergo? — we don’t know — we just assume that because we instituted lock downs, at the same time the virus seemed to slow down, lock downs are what did it. Correlation = Causation, where SARS-Cov-2/COVID-19 is concerned.

      • “How do we really know that the virus wouldn’t have slowed without this, as part of the process that viruses undergo?” ….. because we can compare South Korea with Brazil.

        • Comparing South Korea with Brazil? — You mean like comparing apples to oranges?

          It seems over simplified to think that one country could be compared with another country, accounting properly for all their differences in such a way that there would not be possible multiple confounding factors that would invalidate a straight simple comparison. It would be great if it were this simple, but I am not convinced that it is.

          The instigators of lock downs hope that it is this simple, and I wish them luck in seeing this vision realized.

      • No Clyde, my statement is correct. Both two thirds **AND** three thirds were breathing oxygen.

        • Pool
          That isn’t what you originally said and anyone fluent in English wouldn’t interpret your revised meaning to be equivalent to your original statement. If someone were to say that 50% of people have IQs less than 100, no reasonable person would entertain the interpretation that BOTH 50% and 100% have IQs less than 100. You are trying to squirm out of admitting that you said something dumb.

    • so is the claim that the lock down saved lives … correlation does not equal causation …

      • lockdown will reduce the height of the peak and extend its length. By itself it will not and was not supposed reduce the total deaths. HOWEVER, by keeping the peak admissions to a level where the hospitals capacity will not be overloaded allowing treatment for all. this is where the reduction in deaths will be made.

  13. It will dawn on people soon enough the lockdown is now being used the world over to coerce you out of your cars ,to walk or cycle, even reductions in public transport, it was officially announced on the UK news today(bbc) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52524807 perhaps the biggest attack on freedom ( in the name of the virus of course) is a 14 day quarantine period of travellers to the UK, in effect devastating the airline industry and tourism in one blow, this folks is the new normal, it’s been in the pipe line for years the virus has given the enviromental movement which has infiltrated every world government through the un the chance to devastate our way of life. My own devolved government has extended the lockdown for a further 3 weeks as of yesterday, concessions ,garden centres allowed to reopen and you can exercise more than once a day ,the minister in charge said today we have allowed these concessions because we were advised by the head doctors that giving a little bit will keep the sheep happy, otherwise I doubt they would have given anything. Meanwhile the capital is reducing the width of roads putting in wider pavements and cycle lanes,

    This is the thin edge of the wedge.

    • Yeah. When I read a about that, I was amazed. Is public transport safer than private cars in a pandemic?

      Remember, you can’t have a pandemic without a dem in a panic…

      • Well of course not, it’s the agenda to remove us from our cars , we isolate in the car and practice social distancing in the office or wherever, and the same return journey, a London tube or bus just does not have the same intimacy, of course they dont want that either, so its cycling or walking in all weathers at all times of the year , will the elite be doing the same I somehow doubt it.

        • Their problem is a simple one, you don’t need any conspiracy theories to understand why they want to increase bike and walk for short trips.

          There is not enough public transport capacity to allow the previous numbers of people to go to the same places while observing social distancing of any sort. As anyone who has taken a subway train in the rush hour would know.

          So, if you want to stop the lockdown and not have mass transit immediately turn into a vector for a second wave of infection, you have to figure out some other way for people to move around.

          They cannot switch to cars, There is not enough road space either, and there is not enough parking space when you get wherever it is. And in addition, roads can carry far more people if they are biking or walking than if they are used by cars.

          So the only way to maintain social distancing in cities and allow people back to work is if they bike or walk to work. But now you encounter the fundamental problem that as long as cycling requires them to cycle on roads which are fully occupied by cars and trucks, which are, and are well known to be, dangerous by design for bikes.

          So you arrive at the solution which has been obvious from the example of Holland since the sixties, you have to introduce dedicated bike ways, and you have to design around walkers, giving them plenty of room to distance from each other.

          This means closing some streets to cars. It is so obvious. But this will also have another benefit. Streets through which cars and trucks drive all the time are not pleasant places to be. The fumes and noise are unpleasant and unhealthy, and such a simple thing as walking from a shop or cafe on one side to one on the other requires careful thought. Residential neighborhoods with cars and trucks driving through, usually at speed for at least part of the day, are dreadful places to live.

          If someone had proposed, in 1935, that we should increase car and truck traffic to pre-Covid levels, in the places that it was at those levels, and with the consequences that we have all experienced, it would have been rejected out of hand. Why on earth would you want to do that?

          We now have, and its great to see the UK Government realize it and start acting on it, a chance to claim back our streets.

          What we have done, without realizing it, is to transform living and working outdoor environments into roadways which everyone drives on in order to get through them to someplace else. We have to start putting the residents and the people working in them, and their interests, first. And that means severely limiting the amount of truck and car traffic through our cities, and replacing it with less damaging means.

          Where the UK Government is quite wrong is the plan for accelerated licensing of scooters. Experience in the US shows that the accident rate will be appalling. They, unlike bikes, which have evolved over 100 years, are also dangerous by design.

          • It’s not about short trips,eg London crossing from a to b is a long trip particularly if you need to carry anything in the winter, the ideas include stopping cars 20 miles out side London, are you going to walk and or cycle twenty miles in whatever season? Are you going to use public transport? Not by your analogy, it’s not a conspiracy theory, this is what they are doing .

          • It is unrealistic to expect people to bike 20 miles. It is perfectly realistic and reasonable to expect people to drive 2 or 3, thus freeing the public transportation for those who have to travel 20.

            What we have to get away from is the crazed idea that giving all streets wholly over to cars makes any kind of sense. As if it were a mark of freedom to sit in a car in a polluted jam for hours, and then pay a bomb to park when you get there. If you can find a parking spot!

            Its my right to have a nice neighborhood to walk, bike and shop in, versus yours to drive through it on the way to somewhere else, as fast as possible.

          • Yet the reality is there is no other option that is what they have asked the prime minister just endorsed this by saying avoid public transport.

            Streets as opposed to motorways have never been given over to motor traffic most streets be them suburban or city have two foot paths and places to cross with traffic lights giving priority to footfall.

            You have no right to a nice neibour hood, you have a choice of were you chose to live, a poor person has little choice,

            By the term neibour hood other people live there as well if you chose to ride a bike ,walk ,walk on your hands, you must also respect other members of your community who wish to drive, you also have a choice to move if you wish to live somewhere were no one drives,

    • BdC,
      Try an opposing views on the Jo Nova blog where Jo (trained in the topic) notes that London stats are poor, yet incoming flights are without controls or testing. Seems a plausible case, that infection would go down if incoming flights are stopped. You have a conflicting theory? Geoff S

      • The UK is considering a 14-day self-quarantine for incoming travellers, from June. This is so useless it’s almost funny.

        Firstly it’s way too late. Secondly, they will discover, as we did here in Oz, that people just don’t do it. That will require a forced quarantine, as we have in Oz, brought in around July or August, once the media (who seen to determine policy these days) get outraged about those breaking quarantine.

        So just about the time the rest of the northern hemisphere is relaxing restrictions for summer*, the UK will be doubling down on theirs.

        *it definitely seems that the southern hemisphere and the equator are not suffering as badly as the northern hemisphere so far. This indicates that the weather may well be a factor, and summer will be safer, just like normal flu.

        • “summer will be safer”
          May is not summer in the SH. In fact, in Aust/NZ in March, CV took off as fast as anywhere, and March is still reasonably summery. The effects of control appeared in April and continue in May.

          • “In fact, in Aust/NZ in March, CV took off as fast as anywhere, and March is still reasonably summery.”

            In late March or early April the Australian government were saying that 80% of cases had arrived from overseas and they had very little local spread.

          • I guess if testing for something new takes off the results will also take off. The issue gets skewed by the deaths. Did the deaths occur BECAUSE of COVID-19? Short answer is no-one knows as that little factiod was not recorded.

      • My post the jist of it is not just a theory its what’s happening, I’m not convinced that when the r number is low enough to allow the sheep out ,that you need to quarantine anybody who flies in , Europe so far is weeks ahead of the UK with covid with restrictions eased ,we are 3 weeks away from the quarantine restrictions unless the virus erupts again in Europe I see no sense in quarantining anyone. It would of made more sense if they said ” if there is a second round of covid in Europe or anywhere else for that matter we will impose quarantine restrictions” that would of made sense,so I cant see how they can estimate it will be dangerous to allow people in after another 3 weeks it makes no sense.

      • I dont agree that the London stats are poor ,we have been told for two weeks the infection rate and deaths have been dropping in London faster than elsewhere, yet the thousands of people coming in on flights have it would seem made no difference to the infection rate or deaths , flight travel quarantines would of been effective at the beginning of the pandemic , not two weeks in a month in ,
        Without quarantine we have seen infection and deaths dropping, see my previous answer to yourself.

    • If you walked or cycled to work you’d be healthier. What’s wrong with that?

        • Nobody is being forced to walk or cycle in the UK. It is nothing more than a suggestion to allow those that need to travel on public transport to do so in less crowded conditions. It is clearly not an option for those that work in London but commute in from up to 50 miles away.
          Given the insanitary conditions you fine on London Underground in normal times there are many that choose to walk to and from work to home or a mainline station in anycase.

          Politically I put myself on the right and have never been a believer in the who global warming scam- as a marine journalist I’ve attacked it for years. I was in London in Late February attending a confernce and caught the virus on that two day trip. Thankfully I only had a month of coughing, feeling drained and aching all over. My wife then got the cough and lost her taste and smell is has only just recovered that. We got it mild but no way I could bring myself to vist my 93-year old mum who has been in and out of hospital for various things for the last for years.
          There are many like me who actually support the lockdown. Yes it causes problems and my own income is halved and my freedom to do as I please curtailed. But I also see that there are now far more people pushing for an end to globalisation and exporting jobs from the west to Asia and looking to a future with more local manufacturing and production. Its actually reinforcing believe in self sufficiency and teh nation state which isn’t a bad thing.

      • Because it’s not just about work,work is a excuse, such a drastic change in peoples lives needs a consensus, a vote ,a debate, we have had neither, it’s fairly clear that these coerce measures would not of happened if we were in normal times, the left have taken advantage of the virus, people are free to cycle and walk now as well as drive, a choice has been removed from the people .

      • Peter,
        What’s wrong with that is you really don’t know if that would make me healthier or not. Everybody’s situation is different which makes blanket statements like yours just an empty slogan. For example, I live 35 miles from work with no path there that does not involve mixing it up with high-speed traffic. That would not be healthy. Not to mention the snow and below zero temperatures during the winter.

        Besides, *my* healty is *my* business and nobody else’s. I can make those decisions on my own, I don’t need your help or government coercion.

    • “the biggest attack on freedom ( in the name of the virus of course) is a 14 day quarantine period of travellers to the UK, in effect devastating the airline industry and tourism in one blow,”

      ….While conveniently ignoring EUROSTAR, People coming in and out of the UK on Ferries, in cars and Buses, and the channel tunnel, which can transport many more people in close confinement than any aircraft!

      Seriously!
      What with the NHS “APP”, it’s difficult to imagine any nutter more insane than Bojo and his “eneptomatic” team of utter plonkers!

  14. Last time I posted a comment Dave, there were 77 deaths in Dallas County. As of today there are 135. That is a 75% increase. What will it be in another two weeks?

    • Stay away from Dallas Country Henry. Your life is in danger. I suggest a full size condom for your safety.

    • And how many people live in that county? While every death is sad, you cannot live your life trying to save as many lives as possible. We can eliminate almost all deaths from automobile accidents simply by driving under 25 MPH. Should we, therefore, ban driving over 25 MPH to save lives? Ernest Hemingway said that every true story ends in death. Life is a true story.

      • Texas covid deaths now about same as road deaths.
        Give a fraction of covid money to improving road safety.

      • “you cannot live your life trying to save as many lives as possible.”

        I know a lot of doctors and nurses that would disagree with your statement. They are kind of busy right now dealing with this pandemic.

        • Actually many hospitals have furloughed people, not enough to do, and no business coming in due to the banning of “elective” procedures.

        • Lots of doctors and nurses being furloughed. Of course the deplorables…I mean non essentials are sitting around. 🙁

        • Henry,
          They are doing their jobs: treating the sick. I applaud them for this. I also save lives when I do my job well because the software I work on is safety critical (lives depend on it working correctly). I take this responsibility seriously, but I am not “trying to save as many lives as possible”, in the broadest sense, which is how Wade meant it. That is a mandate that can’t be fulfilled. You may be shocked to learn that you have no right to be “safe” and the government couldn’t guarantee it even if you think it has a duty to do so (which it doesn’t).

          • If you could read, you would know that I was replying to this…

            Wade May 9, 2020 at 3:25 pm Edit
            And how many people live in that county?
            […]

          • David, I don’t doubt that Henry can read, It’s his ability to comprehend that is demonstrably lacking.

    • Henry If treatment options are hidden and Dr.s are not allowed to practice medicine much larger. Focus on treatment not face masks. Modifying the rate of infection does nothing to modify the total infections.

      • “Modifying the rate of infection does nothing to modify the total infections.”
        ..
        That is false, as you are making the assumption that a vaccine will not be developed in the near future.

        • Not any time soon. Certified and double blind tested. Like the common flu vaccine, kinda works. IAM not an optimist but a realist.

          • “Not any time soon.”

            How do you know if any one of the three or four candidate vaccines currently being tested will not work?

          • He didn’t say that none of them would work. He said “not anytime soon”. Even if all of the current candidate vaccines turn out to be effective, it will take time to get them properly tested, more time to get them approved for use, and even more time before they’re manufactured and distributed – No one is going to start making and distributing an untested and unapproved vaccine on the off chance that it will pass testing and gain approval in the meantime.

            So we’re talking several months (IE not before the end of summer) at the absolute earliest a vaccine could possible be ready – and that assumes there’s no snags in the process that could slow it up (IE unforeseen problems during the testing, approval, or even manufacturing and distribution phases that need to be ironed out, which again are things that takes time to resolve).

    • “Last time I posted a comment Dave, there were 77 deaths in Dallas County. As of today there are 135. That is a 75% increase. What will it be in another two weeks?”

      Give up trying to hold these people to account.

      As I will keep reminding folks on Feb 17th the USA cases were 68.. and people here had no clue
      hey look Zero deaths Mosher!
      and people wonder what I meant when I told them they didn’t understand statistics

      Same with Willis’ predictions for Korea, missed by a mile.

      Accountable? nope.

      here is the deal.

      right now some politician is making a decision. Its a decision he cannot get right.
      either way he goes he will kill jobs or people or both. And nobody can tell him
      exact numbers either way.

      • 0.0% of Dallas County residents have died with COVID-19 since March. As of the March, the unemployment rate had climbed to 4.4% from 3.3%. The April report will probably be over 12%. The math is trivial.

        • Seriously Middleton, 135 people in Dallas county have died. Go F yourself if you think that 135 people are 0.0%

        • Middleton has reduced the 135 people in Dallas county that have died to being a “trivial” 0.0%

        • Dallas county has 2.636 million residents. If 2635 residents of Dallas died, they would represent 0.001, or 0.01% of the population. According to Middleton, these 2635 people are 0.0% of the residents of Dallas county.

          So Dave, do more than 2636 people in Dallas have to die for it to matter to you?

          • Henry,
            I hope that you can get a grip on your feelings, they are affecting your ability to be rational.
            No one said that deaths do not matter. However, the rate at which people are dying from COVID-19 does not justify this lock-down.
            You also should review your rounding rules. “0.001” is “0.1%”, not “0.01%”. If it was “0.01%” that would round to “0.0%”. At “0.1%” it would round to “0%”.

          • Henry, clearly math (like reading comprehension) is not your strong suit.

            2,635 out of 2.636 million is 0.0009962 (and several digits more if you want to be really precise) while that rounds up to 0.001 when you put in into percentage form that would be 0.1% not 0.01%

            And David didn’t say the deaths were trivial he said the *math* was trivial. (see that’s your lack of reading comprehension ability rearing it’s ugly head again). Really, henry, you keep making a fool of yourselves with your constant stalker postings that lack all rationality and fail at basic math and reading comprehension skills.

      • Steven,

        You’ve predicted doom for the west and triumph for South Korea for months. But we are now seeing just how utterly fragile south Korea’s approach was all along. A single person causes lockdowns. It’s asinine to think you can control a virus with a system so fragile it can’t survive even a single person not acting perfectly in accordance with the rules. Fragility makes bad public policy.

        The herd immunity approach, on the other hand, is as close to anti-fragile as you can get. It is time-tested, too. Instead of perpetual worry, countries which let the virus burn out naturally have little to fear of a second wave. South Korea will always worry about catching up. If only a handful of democrat governors in the states could figure that out, we could undo some of the economic damage.

        • I get so tired if this Democrat/Republican BS. They both suck in different ways. It’s government. As George Washington famously said government is force. Force is going to be misused. A “pox” on both houses.

          Lockdowns of the healthy are Constitutional. The US Supreme Court last said that in 1902 and relied on even earlier cases.

          https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/

          Deal with it. It is Constitutional.

          If you are healthy and don’t like Constitutional lockdowns, there is a Constitutional remedy under the fifth amendment. If you are healthy and the government won’t let you work this is a “taking” of property without just compensation. Think eminent domain. Get off your ass and sue the government if you are getting hurt too bad economically. Hell just start a fifth amendment movement to bring attention to the fact that the government has to pay for its decision in taking away the right of the healthy to earn a living.

          You can sue the government under the second amendment if you can’t go to church. Harder to do, but still possible.

          To me it doesn’t seem like lockdowns (or not) are going to make any difference in deaths or in our economy.

          Lockdowns (or not) lots of people will be too scared to go back to work. (Think of those meat processing plants). Lots of young people with children will not be able to find a place they feel comfortable leaving their kids. Lots of people will not fly. Lots of people will not go back to restaurants or the movies, etc. because they are scared. If the pandemic persists lots of people are going to have to care for the sick of their own families.

          I think people are finally beginning to realize this is not the flu. How much worse, we don’t know yet.

          I am tired of all the people with their mathematical crystal balls. Mathematics is not a life form. Just an excuse to justify somebody else’s opinion you don’t like.

    • Please don’t give the 75% increase on really small numbers. It’s a fraud.

      The US Census estimate of Dallas County July, 2018 was 2,637,772. Using that Dallas County went from .00292% of the population dying of Covid (assuming they all died of it) to .00512% of the population dying of Covid. At that rate, in another 874 years all will be dead. Unfortunately almost all will be dead in 100 years anyway.

      • So, in another two weeks when the number of dead increases by 50% or 75%, are you going to tell the children and/or the grandchildrend of the dead that their loss is a fraud?

        • As Mosher said above you are wasting your time trying to hold any one here to account.
          The truthful answer to your question is yes, lives are just economic components to the luna right. Like their figurehead, compassion is no match for ideology and hubris.

          • Hey there Loydo:

            Like their figurehead, compassion is no match for ideology and hubris.

            If you mean Trump, isn’t that what we’d expect from “dirty filthy rotten nasty” Republicans? At least according to progressive Democrats anyway.

            But how do you explain it when it comes from your sides’ figurehead(s), the “beautiful” people in progressive (dis)compassionate land?

            “No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. NHs are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission.”

            https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/03/doh_covid19-_nhadmissionsreadmissions_-032520.pdf

          • Loydo:

            Just to follow up on the ideology and hubris argument, what say you regarding progressive liberal Andrew Cuomo’s reversal JUST TODAY of his previous EO to place COVID-19 infected patients into NY nursing homes where the most vulnerable of our elderly citizens reside?

            “He further announced on Sunday that all nursing home staff must now be tested for COVID-19 twice a week, saying, ‘this rule is not optional — it’s mandatory.’

            Cuomo also issued a new directive stating that hospitals cannot send patients back to nursing homes in the state unless they tested negative for the virus. The move appeared to largely invalidate his March 25 state directive that required nursing homes to take on new patients infected with COVID-19.”

            Do you think Elaine Mazzotta is out of line to say:

            “‘The way this has been handled by the state is totally irresponsible, negligent and stupid,’ said Elaine Mazzotta, a nurse whose mother died last month of suspected COVID-19 at a Long Island nursing home. ‘They knew better. They shouldn’t have sent these people into nursing homes.'”

            https://tinyurl.com/yd8uu4ay

            “One key criticism is that New York took weeks after the first known care home outbreaks to begin publicly reporting the number of deaths in individual homes — and still doesn’t report the number of cases. By the time New York began disclosing the deaths in the middle of last month, the state had several major outbreaks with at least 40 deaths each, most of which were a surprise to the surrounding communities and even some family members.”

            What say you? Do you believe Cuomo was compassionate in the weeks before or today after he decided to stop allowing the uneconomic elderly to be sacrificed in favor of those who could recover and pay taxes to the state?

        • “So, in another two weeks…”

          After ten weeks of hearing we are a mere two weeks away from The End, the mantra loses some of whatever potency it might have had.

          My model predicts that in two more weeks, it will be Two More Weeks all over again. Unlike the epidemiological models, my predictive scheme has been 100% accurate. Please don’t disappoint me in two weeks.

  15. 100% of Covid 19 patents died with dihydrogen monoxide in their bodies so now all deaths are being reported as drownings and Dihydrogen monoxide has been added to the dangerous chemicals list and one of the main pre- cursors to Covid 19.

    Bill gates has already offered to create a vaccine but it must be compulsory to overcome this scourge.

    • In the community where I live dihydrogen monoxide often known as DHMO is so prevalent in the atmosphere that at times it condenses out as a liquid. The city knows about this problem and they have a network of pipes under the streets to deal with accumulations of this liquid. DHMO is a very dangerous gas because molecule per molecule it is stronger IR absorber than is CO2. As a liquid it can be deadly. Rather than destroying this very dangerous chemical, the city just dumps it our side of the city limits where it is allowed to evaporate back into the atmosphere. The pool of liquid DHMO is so extensive that it can be seen from space. The EPA needs to step in and do something about this problem.

  16. How did the Wuhan virus get to people who were sheltering at home?

    Perhaps these people went outside to buy groceries and didn’t tell Cuomo.

    • “Perhaps these people went outside to buy groceries and didn’t tell Cuomo.”

      they didn’t ask that question

      or ask about and test family members

  17. It boggles my mind that, despite their strident public pleas for everyone to isolate/lock-down/etc., NY Gov. Cuomo and NYC Mayor de Blasio still won’t shut down the NYC mass transit system, which spreads the disease there.

    The South Koreans, Taiwanese & Icelanders have figured out how to handle this disease successfully. It’s really not rocket science. You simply have to:

    Step 1. Test everyone who, because of either symptoms or likely exposure, might have the disease; get the results as quickly as possible.

    Step 2. Quarantine them until they test negative.

    Step 3. If they text positive, interview (“contact trace”) them, find the people they’re likely to have had contact with in the last month, and quickly notify them to self-quarantine and get tested.

    GoTo Step . (Repeat with the newly identified patients.)

    Those are the common-sense measures which have enabled South Korea, Taiwan & Iceland to stop the disease.

    They aren’t complicated, nor even terribly expensive. If we implement them, then we can bring both the daily new case number and the daily death toll rapidly down, and we can then lift the lock-downs and reopen the closed businesses.

    If we don’t implement those measures, then it will be a long, brutal summer, with widespread human and economic devastation.

    Here are two articles about how South Korea succeeded spectacularly, while most other nations, including the United States, are failing spectacularly:

    1. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/08/boris-johnson-in-intensive-care/ (starting around the 15th paragraph) — thank you, Chris Monckton!

    2. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-south-korea-controlled-its-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-4

    On March 3rd, S. Korea reported 851 new cases.

    Over the last week they’ve averaged just six (6) new cases per day.

    They’ve reduced their daily new infections by 99%.

    Another thing that boggles my mind is that some idiots think we should not emulate South Korea, Taiwan and Iceland, but that we should, instead, emulate Sweden, where the epidemic is out of control, and the case numbers and death toll (per capita) are even worse than here in the U.S..

    Here’s how South Korea is doing:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/#graph-cases-daily
    They had no CV-19 deaths yesterday, and one on Thursday.

    Here’s how Sweden is doing, if you believe their numbers (note that they have only 1/5 as many people as South Korea):
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/#graph-cases-daily
    They reported another CV-19 135 deaths yesterday, and 99 on Thursday.

    Here’s how the U.S. is doing:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-cases-daily
    Our per-capita death rate is about 2/3 as bad as Sweden’s.

    • Typos:

      “GoTo Step .” should have been “GoTo Step 1.”

      “They reported another CV-19 135 deaths yesterday” should have been “They reported another 135 CV-19 deaths yesterday”

      • DB, contact tracing works when the incidence is small— South Korea from the gitgo, Singapore wave one. It doesn’t work in situations like NYC now.

        • wrong.

          NYC case load is actually pretty low with respect to the contact tracing required.
          on average every new case generates 52 phone calls to contacts

    • Iceland did not apply containment, international travel, restaurants and hotels are open.

      Fatality rate has nothing to do with lockdown (or not) but mainly with :
      – mean age of cases (in Sweden they failed to isolate nursing homes),
      – co-morbidity
      – treatment (ICU protocol, anti viral, etc.).

      In Sweden, the healthcare system has never been overhelmed, so applying lockdown would have been not only completely useless but an economical desaster.

      What could explain the difference in fatality rate between Sweden and Iceland (among other causes, as mean age, co-morbidity, etc.) :
      Iceland used HQC, Sweden didn’t :
      https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2020/04/07/shipment_of_antimalarial_drug_has_arrived/

      “A combination of Chloroquine or a related drug called Hydrochloroquine (Plaquenil) and the antibiotic Azithromycin (Zithromax) is already being used to fight COVID-19 in Iceland.”

      • What Iceland, South Korea and Taiwan did, very successfully, was aggressive testing and contact-tracing. That is the only approach which has been successful against this disease.

        In Sweden they didn’t do that, and they’ve had 3,225 COVID-19 deaths, and counting, out of a population of just 10.2 million. They’re averaging 79 additional deaths per day (averaged over the last week).

        (In the United States [current population 330 million] we’ve twice gone to war over attacks which killed fewer Americans than that.)

        If Sweden had employed the South Korean approach, they’d have presumably had similar results, which would have resulted in about fifty deaths (and a much reduced economic impact).

        But you think that would have been “completely useless” and “an economic disaster,” Petit_Barde?!?

        As for Iceland, they’ve reported ten deaths: four of them before Alvogen, Inc. gifted them with the shipment of chloroquine (April 6), and six after the chloroquine arrived. The chloroquine might have helped with the fatality rate, but the main factor which has saved Icelanders from the devastation experienced by Sweden is that Iceland uses intensive testing and contact-tracing to find and quarantine their COVID-19 patients.

        • New Jersey USA where i live has a pop 8.8 million about the size o f Sweden. We have had lockdown for some time yet have 9000+ cases

          • New Jersey is an absolute catastrophe. It has 139,951 confirmed cases, and 9,260 deaths, so far.

            New Jersey has a New York-style make-believe lockdown: the public transit systems are all still running. By order of Governor Murphy, the train cars and buses are limited to 50% of the normal number of passengers. That should reduce the number of people who a COVID-19 carrier can infect to about 45 per subway trip.

            Do you wonder why the epidemic is out of control?

  18. Why the outraged tone of this post? So 2/3 were retired, unemployed, living at home?

    The science has shown that most Covid deaths are those living in close quarters with continual exposure to the virus, and are in the vulnerable group – elderly and /or with underlying comorbidities. They are not people with casual contact such as those into retail stores and mass transportation.

    None of this refutes the notion that sheltering in place and social distancing are good strategies for limiting the number of cases.

    No question that hospitals were overwhelmed. But it was for about a 10 day period. And NYC is obviously an outlier in many ways.

    Is there a suggestion that, without the isolation strategies, there would have been fewer cases? That would defy logic. One of the tenets of epidemiology is that isolation/quarantining works to limit cases.

    • The whole idea was to “flatten the curve”. That prevents the health care system from being overloaded. You still have the same number of people die. Sad but true. You can have 100 deaths over a 1-2 week period of over 1-2 month period. Same number of dead.

      And they are counting anyone who dies “WITH” covid-19 to be a death “FROM” covid-19. Sorry but with that type of death count inflation there will be no good data to base any policy on. It is being done so the politicians can claim success.

      • There is no way to make this with/from distinction valid except by excess deaths, which there appear to be. CV-19 does NOT just kill by viral pneumonia. Heart failure, renal failure, thrombosis. We know deaths are mostly over 65, and/or with comorbiditiies obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Die now is different than die two years from now from those same underlying conditions.

        • So I’m trying to get my head wrapped around these various claims. One of the problems is “excess compared to which year?”. The 2017-18 flu season was a big one and this is the most recent info I can find so it covers the 2017 part: (sorry in advance if the formatting isn’t right)

          https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm

          Causes of Death, 2017 Deaths
          ———————— ——–
          1. Heart Disease 44,092
          2. Cancer 34,956
          3. Accidents 7,687
          4. Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases 7,258
          5. Stroke 6,264
          6. Flu/Pneumonia 4,517
          7. Diabetes 4,176
          8. Alzheimer’s disease 3,521
          9. Hypertension 2,699
          10. Septicemia 2,296
          Drug Overdose Deaths 3,921 (listed separately under “mortality”)

          So about 120,000 for 2017. We are 4 months into 2020 and I would expect about 1/3rd (40,000). The site only shows 2014-17. All 4 years show about 120,000.

          Do you know of any site with 2020 statistics year to date?
          Thanks

          • Go to the link below and click the download button and select states and seasons you are interested in. Updated weekly. WE are about on par nationwide with 2018 through week 16. We will exceed 18 as late reporting comes in but I’ll be suprised if we exceed it by 80K. I’ve been watching it weekly for almost 2 months. Late reporting generally adds 5-10% of the latest 2-3 weeks and some tiny amounts to periods before that.

            https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

          • Thank you “dwestall”. Finding things on gov web sites is bizarre at best to me. I was looking for “total deaths” and didn’t think to look under “Pneumonia and Influenza” THEN check the right side for “total”. LOL.

            Okay so for the first 16 weeks in 2020 we have a grand total of 39,005

            Now there will be some late reporting and some seasonal adjustments but as of now it looks pretty much within the range of error.

            Now that I have the historical and current sites bookmarked I can check back to see.

            Thanks again dwestall and thanks to Rud for getting me going down this path. I’ve gotta keep myself occupied somehow and this is the type of stuff I like.

            Stay safe everyone.

    • “Is there a suggestion that, without the isolation strategies, there would have been fewer cases?”

      The real questions are twofold:

      1. Did the destruction of the economy reduce the overall number of deaths, including suicides and those who died of something other than CCP-19 because they were unable to get proper treatment for it?

      2. Was any reduction in death worth the tens of trillions of dollars the lockdowns have cost?

      I don’t know the answer to 1, but I’m pretty sure the answer to 2 is ‘no way’.

      • “1. Did the destruction of the economy reduce the overall number of deaths”

        You’re getting a little ahead of yourself, aren’t you? The economy has not been destroyed. The economy is in the process of getting up and running right now. Perhaps you are talking about your personal circumstances, but the overall economy has not been destroyed, and the demand that was in the economy three months ago is still there needing to be fulfilled.

        Oil prices are up. People are going back to work more and more every day. We are moving forward, we are not stuck in neutral.

        • Tom
          Several state budgets have gone from a surplus to a significant deficit. They are laying off employees and reducing services. There is a good chance they will try to reverse their fortunes by raising taxes on everyone, including those who have lost their savings. The unemployment rate is going to remain high because of small businesses that have gone bankrupt, and the state employees that have been let go. For awhile, people will be reluctant to eat out because money is tight and they may be concerned about lingering CV. Many, if not most, colleges are in financial difficulties and will probably reduce their staff in the Fall. This isn’t going to be like hitting the button on your VCR after being in pause mode.

          • Just wait till all of these small businesses get worker’s compensation and liability sticker shock when their policies need renewal.

            It might be that the lockdowns saved these small businesses from huge numbers of workers’ compensation and liability claims that would have put them under any way.

            People forget how instrumental the insurance sector is at forcing behavior on the business community, especially on the small business community. The insurance sector is very good at wrecking small business without government help.

            It is my belief that as soon as self driving cars are on the road for a few years that the insurance cost of driving your own car will force most human driven cars off the road.

    • Craft
      You remarked, “The science has shown that most Covid deaths are those living in close quarters with continual exposure to the virus, …” Such as those required to ‘shelter in place.’

    • “Why the outraged tone of this post?”

      The implication is that it was wrong and counterproductive to shelter at home. So those who don’t like the lockdown express outrage and claim they have been fooled and their lives ruined by government lies. Facts don’t matter in this case.

      • The implication is that it was wrong and counterproductive to shelter at home.

        No, the context of the post is that 2/3rd of *NEW* NY COVID-19 patients were sheltering at home and contracted the virus anyway.

        You read neither the headline nor the article did you? Emphasis added:

        “According to the data, 18% of new cases came from nursing homes, 4% from assisted-living facilities, 2% from congregate-care facilities, 2% were homeless, less than 1% from prisons and 8% were marked as ‘other.’

        While New York may have the virus ‘on retreat,’ Cuomo again warned against acting too fast.

        ‘It reinforces what we’ve been saying, which is: Much of this comes down to what you can do to protect yourself,’ he said. ‘Everything is closed down, government has done everything it could, society has done everything it could, now it’s up to you.'”

        So, “everything is closed down,” government and society have done everything they can, thus now it’s “up to you” to protect yourself HOW exactly?

        By sheltering in place, Tom?

        Facts don’t matter in this case.

        You mean the fact that 2/3rds of new NY COVID-19 patients were sheltering at home and contracted the virus anyway?

        Is that what you mean?

        • As I said above (way above) sheltering at home in itself is a good isolation strategy. But add in crowded conditions (like in NYC) and the basic premise disintegrates. Examples are nursing homes and self-contained apartment buildings. These conditions also promote heavy virus loading

  19. This is hardly any surprise. New York City is a densely packed city, and is heavily reliant upon enormous apartment buildings.

    Suppose for a moment that a small fraction of the inhabitants are “essential”, and thus far more likely to be exposed out of their homes. Now suppose that one of those “essential” residents contracts Covid-19. That person, as seems typical, was shedding the virus for several days prior to the onset of symptoms, and responsibly self quarantines.

    At that point, everyone in the same apartment number is expected to also contract Covid. Further, every common surface, say the elevator buttons, railings, door handles, etc., are also vectors of disease (if you have young children, you know how). Even worse, some of these buildings are quite old, and suffer from poor ventilation. People living in apartments near the quarantined person, even if they were fastidiously shut in, are liable to catch it in the air.

    Thus Covid propagates throughout the residence, even with social distancing. Social distancing isn’t going to stop Covid-19, but it can slow the inevitable.

  20. “Lockdown”, “shelter in place”, whatsoever…

    The real count is reduction of contacts. If that is not happening you can call it what you want it will not work.

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/04/science.abb8001

    But even than, I have a friend in NYC who obeyed to her best capability and probably got it at the grocery store or in her building. Big cities with people living in cages are just not the best ground in a pandemic.

  21. First, self-report data on something like this is notoriously unreliable.

    Second, the definition of “stayed at home” is way to meaningless to be of any value.

    Third, unless you know what % of NYers were “staying at home,” the 66% doesn’t really mean anything at all. The implications of that 66% would be completely different depending on whether 80% of NYers are staying at home, or 40%, or 10%.

    Henry Pool raises this point above. What’s amazing that any self-styled “skeptics” wouldn’t catch this immediately

    • “What’s amazing that any self-styled “skeptics” wouldn’t catch this immediately”

      Some skeptics are too interested in trashing the lockdown to pay attention to those little details. That would interfere with their rant.

      • “Some skeptics are too interested in trashing the lockdown to pay attention to those little details.”

        That’s not what’s going on.

        The “skeptics” of the lockdown are pretty consistently skeptical. For example, with Virginia needing to revise their policy (to include the same person as two “cases” if tested positive on two different days, see: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/05/02/data-improvements/ ), we know that numbers besides total mortality are going to be unreliable. But we also know from historical data of other outbreaks that these things follow predictable patterns, and we have a general idea of where we are (the exponential decay side of the curve), and that’s good enough to argue against lockdowns, especially when the criteria for lockdowns was “flatten the curve”. Does anyone remember that from four weeks ago?

        However, the pro-lockdown side seems to have what philosopher David Wood has called a “skeptometer”. When presented evidence in favor of lockdowns (declining rates of infection), the dial the skeptometer very, very low and then mock skeptics for not being “scientific”.

        But when presented with evidence against lockdowns (strong evidence of an early outbreak, low mortality given antibody study results, etc), they ratchet it up to 11, and then mock lockdown skeptics for not being as skeptical as they are.

        This has been happening from very early on, too, so we have a lot of examples.

  22. So David, I agree that isolation is going to bankrupt us. It does not work and it is burning up our money and causing companies to go bankrupt. It is like burning your house to keep warm.

    I want a real solution. A natural solution that enables us to beat the dang virus and go to football games without masks.

    Here are the facts,

    We know 85% of our citizens have guns and ammunition. They have mild or no Covid symptoms.

    Obviously, nature has a solution that kills covid if the citizen’s have ammunition for their natural defenses against all immune system attacks, include covid.

    We are at war with the virus and we are fighting a cold war with Medical Industry. What we need to do is fight to win.

    We just took away the ammunition so their immune system do not work optimally.

    Give our immune system the ammunition it absolutely requires before it must defend against the virus and it will defeat the virus.

    We know twice as many US blacks are dying of covid than US whites. This is true in the US and in the UK. Their is a scientific reason for the high death rate in Blacks. In the US 86% of Blacks are Vitamin D deficient.

    We are fighting a war with covid and 42% of our citizens do not have enough ammunition.

    86% of our black citizens do not have enough ammunition.

    In our nursing homes our citizens have guns, but no bullets.

    So, they are completely defenseless against the Virus.

    Get enough ammunition for all citizen’s body’s..

    And their body’s will naturally defeat covid, 70% of common cancers, and 50% reduction in type 2 diabetes, 50% reduction in multiple sclerosis, and so on…

    … and then they will not die and cause all of the complaints which force isolation.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52574931

    Black men and women are nearly twice as likely to die with coronavirus as white people in England and Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics.

    https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/group/racialethnic/africanamericans/index.html
    HIV and African Americans
    Blacks/African Americansa account for a higher proportion of new HIV diagnosesb and people with HIV, compared to other races/ethnicities. In 2018, blacks/African Americans accounted for 13% of the US populationc but 42% of the 37,832 new HIV diagnoses in the United States and dependent areas.d

    https://tahomaclinic.com/Private/Articles4/WellMan/Forrest%202011%20-%20Prevalence%20and%20correlates%20of%20vitamin%20D%20deficiency%20in%20US%20adults.pdf

    Prevalence and correlates of vitamin D deficiency in US adults

    Mounting evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency could be linked to several chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and its correlates to test the hypothesis that vitamin D deficiency was common in the US population, especially in certain minority groups.

    The overall prevalence rate of vitamin D deficiency was 41.6%, with the highest rate seen in blacks (82.1%), followed by Hispanics (69.2%). Vitamin D deficiency was significantly more common among those who had no college education, were obese, with a poor health status, hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level

    This is a chart that shows the diseases (cancers) that have been found to be caused by Vitamin D deficiency.

    https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/disease-incidence-prev-chart-051317.pdf

    • I forget where I read it the other day so I can’t provide a link, but apparently a small study in the Philippines found that 95% of the critical CCP-19 patients they looked at were vitamin-D deficient, while 95% of those with mild symptoms had normal vitamin-D levels.

      Again, small study and I’ve no idea how trustworthy it is, but their data seems to support this theory. Though it’s always possible that low vitamin-D simply happens to correlate with other health problems which lead to serious symptoms.

      • Indonesia

        Here is what shocks me.

        Nobody is collecting data and summarizing data to show who has the LOWEST risk.

        From serology studies.. what is the profile of people who get the disease but had no symptoms?
        From Diagnostic testing, what is the profile of the people who tested positive but never went to
        the hospital?
        From hospital admissions, what is the profile of people who were dismissed with no time in ICU.

        Now, we collect the numbers on the dead, we focus on who is high risk..
        But the flipside of that is never covered, discussed, or measured.

        • It’s discussed, but real studies take time. I know of a couple getting approval from Independent Review Boards. In the meantime, all these researchers can do now is release preliminary data if it has policy relevance and then get castigated for releasing preliminary data.

          But in hindsight, every single country except perhaps Iceland screwed this up. The first 20,000 tests any country should have performed was half on suspected patients, and half on a random sample to test prevalence in the surrounding population.

          • On cruise ships where the virus apparently got rampart before a lockdown, only about 1/6th of crew and passengers got the virus. I don’t believe that 5/6 of people are immune, but some of us probably are. Is there any scientific estimate?

      • There are two studies now that both show a 19 times reduction in the incidence of severe covid cases if the Vitamin D deficiency is correct.

        We are fighting a deadly virus and 42% of our population is deficient in the chemical (prohormone) our body makes to control and optimize 200 microbiological functions in our body which we are aware of.

        This is a very big deal as the medical industry has been doing everything possible to slow and/or bury the Vitamin D deficiency findings.

        What has changed is it is now a racial issue and the Covid data provides black and white support for population optimized supplements of Vitamin D. (4000 UI/day) and likely Zinc supplements.

        Vitamin D Normal Vs Vitamin D Deficient
        So now there are two independent studies which have determined that:

        Those who have a ‘normal’ blood serum 25(0H)D, the blood marker that shows the level of the proteohormone ‘Vitamin’ D in our body, that is greater than 30 ng/ml…

        Have a have a 19 times greater chance of having mild or no covid symptoms

        …than Vitamin D deficient patient who had serum 25(OH)D of less than 20 ng/ml.

        Those who have high body mass and almost all of the elderly are Vitamin D deficient.

        https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561

        Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study

        With reference to normal cases, Vitamin D insufficient cases were approximately 12.55 times more likely to die (OR=12.55; p<0.001) while Vitamin D deficient cases were approximately 19.12 times more likely to die from the disease (OR=19.12; p<0.001).

        https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484

        Vitamin D supplementation could possibly improve clinical outcomes of patients infected with Coronavirus-2019 (COVID2019)

        Data: Three Asian Hospitals.

        Also, for each standard deviation increase in serum 25(OH)D, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than a severe outcome were increased approximately 7.94 times (OR=0.126, p<0.001) while interestingly, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than a critical outcome were increased approximately more than 19.61 times (OR=0.051, p<0.001).

        is significantly associated with clinical outcomes (p<0.001).

        • “There are two studies now that both show a 19 times reduction in the incidence of severe covid cases if the Vitamin D deficiency is correct.

          We are fighting a deadly virus and 42% of our population is deficient in the chemical (prohormone) our body makes to control and optimize 200 microbiological functions in our body which we are aware of.

          This is a very big deal as the medical industry has been doing everything possible to slow and/or bury the Vitamin D deficiency findings. ”

          They must not be doing a very good job, William, because I have been seeing “out of stock” signs from a lot of Vitamin D suppliers, and I note that Vitamin D is now being advertised heavily on tv, along with face masks, verified by the Vietnamese maker. Well, at least they are not made in China. Or are they? 🙁

          Btw, William, thanks for all the information you have provided on Vitamin D. Much appreciated.

          I see where a person needs to take a magnesium supplement that then allows the Vitamin D to function better in the body, and I have heard from various other sources about one needing Vitamin K2 and other supplements to enhance the Vitamin D effect, but these suggestions are a little bit confusing. I don’t know which supplements I should take along with Vitamin D, other than magnesium. A little guidance would be welcome.

          • Hi Tom,

            Yes, definitely Magnesium and Zinc.

            Zinc is key as it appears when we have sufficient Vitamin D and Zinc, our body enables a small amount of Zinc +2 ion to get into our cells which makes the ACE-2 receptor slightly positive which stops the virus from replicating. Zinc helps to limit immune response.

            No replication. No virus problem.

            The entire population (US, Canada, UK, and so on) is deficient in ‘Vitamin’ D, Magnesium, and Zinc.

            We know that is true, as there is a measurable and significant improved biological response when anyone of the three supplements are taken at an appropriate doseage.

            Our bodies become microbiologically optimized to fight cancer, to run better, to fight viral infections, to avoid type 2 diabetes, and so on when we replace the three missing substances.

            ‘Vitamin’ D, is not a Vitamin, it is a proteohormone that turns on and controls 200 microbiological functions in the body.

            … The following daily supplement is sufficient high that it would enable almost any person close to the highest body protection against Covid possible…

            …. and it does not exceed the recommended maximum daily amount of the supplement in question.

            ‘Vitamin’ D 4000 UI/day
            Magnesium 150 mg/day to 300 mg/day
            Zinc 17 mg/day

            There is a common supplement that has Calcium 333mg/167 mg/Magnesium/17 mg Zinc. I take this three vitamin combination vitamin one per day and a second Magnesium supplement of 150 mg/day.

            Calcium supplements and Vitamin D supplements are not recommended without magnesium. I do not necessarily recommend Calcium supplements however the calcium supplement is low and it is difficult to find Zinc supplements.

            https://journals.lww.com/nutritiontodayonline/Abstract/2016/05000/Magnesium_Deficiency__What_Is_Our_Status_.4.aspx

            Although some 50% of Americans do not meet recommended levels of magnesium intake, the extent of prevalent magnesium deficiency is unknown. Given magnesium’s role in a multitude of chronic conditions that are increasingly common across the globe, here, we summarize recently published literature reporting prevalent hypomagnesaemia in generally representative populations and in populations with type 2 diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. On the basis of these studies, we estimate that up to a third of the general population may be magnesium deficient and that outside of acute clinical encounters or hospitalization, hypomagnesaemia is likely frequently overlooked in general clinical practice.

            https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150323142839.htm

            Zinc deficiency linked to immune system response, particularly in older adults

            “When you take away zinc, the cells that control inflammation appear to activate and respond differently; this causes the cells to promote more inflammation,”

            Of those 65 and older, closer to 40 percent do not consume enough zinc, Ho said. Older adults tend to eat fewer zinc-rich foods and their bodies do not appear to use or absorb zinc as well, making them highly susceptible to zinc deficiency.

    • Might not have anything to do with vitamin D as COVID-19 is not a respiratory syndrome and that are the conditions where vitamin D could help:

      https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01403-8

      There is some evidence African-Americans have a genetic risk for cardiovascular disease and COVID-19 would exploit this predisposition:

      https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/01.cir.0000129087.81352.7a

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3577070/

      It is shocking though how few research has been done on the reasons for this obvious overrepresentation of African-Americans presenting with this group of diseases.

      • I do not buy the hypothesis that dark-skinned people are genially deficient in any way to fight the virus or risk of any disease.

        There is incredible genic diversity among dark skin people.

        The explanation for the big difference in Covid, HIV, type 2 diabetes, and so forth black vs white is due to the effect the melanin has on Vitamin D production.

        82% of the Black people in the US are Vitamin D deficient. It is surreal that no one has addressed the Vitamin D crisis in the US.

        If we had addressed the Vitamin D crisis in the US (same problem in every developed country) there would be no covid crisis.

        ‘Vitamin’ D deficiency causes microbiological malfunction and explains why blacks in America are suffering from a long list of health problems.

        For example an increase in blood serum level 25(OH)D from 22 ng/ml to 41 ng/ml reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes by greater than 50%.

        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076015300091?via%3Dihub

        Incidence rate of type 2 diabetes is >50% lower in GrassrootsHealth cohort with median serum 25–hydroxyvitamin D of 41 ng/ml than in NHANES cohort with median of 22 ng/ml

        Vitamin D deficiency in dark skin people is likely also the reason why HIV is more than two times more prevalent for dark skin Americans.

        https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/group/racialethnic/africanamericans/index.html
        HIV and African Americans

        Blacks/African Americansa account for a higher proportion of new HIV diagnoses and people with HIV, compared to other races/ethnicities. In 2018, blacks/African Americans accounted for 13% of the US populationc but 42% of the 37,832 new HIV diagnoses in the United States and dependent areas.d

        • “I do not buy the hypothesis that dark-skinned people are genially deficient in any way to fight the virus or risk of any disease.

          There is incredible genic diversity among dark skin people.”

          Show me the data. I showed you data that points to a directly measurable mechanism.

          “Incidence rate of type 2 diabetes is >50% lower in GrassrootsHealth cohort with median serum 25–hydroxyvitamin D of 41 ng/ml than in NHANES cohort with median of 22 ng/ml”

          Just one look at the cohort design and I can name you a handful of confounding factors. Problem with nearly all supplementation/life style studies.

          “Vitamin D deficiency in dark skin people is likely also the reason why HIV is more than two times more prevalent for dark skin Americans.”
          It is more than ignorant in the context of HIV to think that this correlation has anything biological to do with vitamin D.

          • Ron,

            Nice try with the Ad Hommen about HIV. The human immune system response protects the body against cancer, covid, AIDs, and so on.

            Our immune response is deficient as 40% of the population is ‘Vitamin’ D deficient and 80% of our dark skin citizens are Vitamin D deficient which is criminal.

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3385945/

            Innate Immune Control of HIV

            Mounting evidence suggests a role for innate immunity in the early control of HIV infection, before the induction of adaptive immune responses. Among the early innate immune effector cells, dendritic cells (DCs) respond rapidly following infection aimed at arming the immune system, through the recognition of viral products via pattern recognition receptors. This early response results in the potent induction of a cascade of inflammatory cytokines, intimately involved in directly setting up an antiviral state, and indirectly activating other antiviral cells of the innate immune system. However, epidemiologic data strongly support a role for natural killer (NK) cells as critical innate mediators of antiviral control, through the recognition of virally infected cells through a network of receptors called the killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs). In this review, the early events in innate immune recognition of HIV, focused on defining the biology underlying KIR-mediated NK-cell control of HIV viral replication, are discussed

            Results from Indonesian study, similar results to Philippines study.

            “With reference to normal cases, Vitamin D insufficient cases were approximately 12.55 times more likely to die (OR=12.55; p<0.001) while Vitamin D deficient cases were approximately 19.12 times more likely to die from the disease (OR=19.12; p50% lower in GrassrootsHealth cohort with median serum 25–hydroxyvitamin D of 41 ng/ml than in NHANES cohort with median of 22 ng/ml

            https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076015300091?via%3Dihub

            A Statistical Error in the Estimation of the Recommended Dietary Allowance for Vitamin D

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4210929/pdf/nutrients-06-04472.pdf

            Letter to Veugelers, P.J. and Ekwaru, J.P., A Statistical Error in the Estimation of the Recommended Dietary Allowance for Vitamin D. Nutrients 2014,

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4377874/pdf/nutrients-07-01688.pdf

          • @William Astley
            Your link provides no evidence that vitamin D influences the viral innate immune response that would help to fight of the initial infection and that is the branch you need.

            There is indeed a ton of literature that describes vitamin D deficiency in HIV patients but linked as a result OF the disease and not the other way around.

            More studies with the same confounding factors are not making the results any more meaningful.

      • Not a respiratory syndrome? That’s primarily what it is. Most of the clotting is pulmonary microvascular thrombosis.

        • Thrombosis/embolism is by definition a vascular disease. Even when it happens in the vasculature of the lung.

    • “So David, I agree that isolation is going to bankrupt us.”

      I’m not isolated, and I’m not being bankrupted. Perhaps you should say “some of us” rather than “us”.

      A lot of us are going back to work and are only isolated if we choose to be. You are not describing reality.

      • I hear what you are saying.

        Less isolation will help. It will not however bring back entertainment and tourism. We want the US to be virus safe and fun again.

        The problem is in the US and many other countries….

        …. we will not be able to eliminate the virus. So we need a biological solution to provide protection not an isolation solution.

        Without a biological change, going back to work will result in an increase in covid cases and fear unless we fix our population’s inadequate immune response which is caused by deficiencies in

        Vitamin D, Magnesium, and Zinc.

    • Hmmm… Comment got separated from the comment I was replying to. Happens a lot here.

  23. Rather than reading David’s summary of Denis’s summary of Governor Cuomo’s statements, I would encourage everyone to Google the actual press convergence. Third-hand knowledge is often distorted in the transmission.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tpN_PhjbTY starting ~ 8:30.

    “The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.”
    No. The governor said 66% of new cases were people living at home (as opposed to nursing homes, jail, homeless, etc). Many of these were “retired or unemployed and not commuting”, but this is sloppy to get the facts wrong.

    “Shelter in place has been an EPIC FAIL…”
    Well, NY’s daily new infections has dropped by ~70% since the peak a few weeks ago.
    Meanwhile, US daily new infections has dropped by only ~20% since the peak a few weeks ago (and the majority of that drop can be attributed to the drop in NY!)

    NY is reducing infections faster than the rest of the country. That doesn’t sound like an “epic fail”. It sounds like “doing a good job in a densely populated area where infections could spread very quickly”.

    • It also sounds like ‘enough people have been infected and are now immune that the disease can no longer spread easily.’

      • The Netherlands measured their “success” on their way to herd immunity by using an antibody test with a couple of weeks in between. First time 3% next time 6%. Extrapolation was herd immunity by June 2021.

        But they can’t get any faster if you look at their ICU availability:

        https://covid19.healthdata.org/netherlands

  24. BdC,
    Try an opposing views on the Jo Nova blog where Jo (trained in the topic) notes that London stats are poor, yet incoming flights are without controls or testing. Seems a plausible case, that infection would go down if incoming flights are stopped. You have a conflicting theory? Geoff S

  25. The ability of this virus to spread has been under estimated the world over. Apparently the isolation practiced in New York has not been adequate to stop the spread of the virus.

  26. Shelter in place actually works

    https://twitter.com/DerrickVanGenn2/status/1258857817127215104/photo/1

    IF you do it and do it right.

    sadly the New York data doesnt tell you want you want to know. or it tells both sides what they want to hear.

    what is missing?

    1. what percentage of the actual population was sheltering in place. 66% of those who showed
    up with symptoms REPORTED staying at home. That tells you nothing unless you
    know, what percentage they are of the population.
    2. 66% reported, self reported.. Now here in Korea, we would check their damn phone to see if they
    A) lied
    B) visited the grocery or whereever.
    3. Who their family members ?. Husband stays home, wife goes to work. One gives it to the other.

    basically the New york data does not go far enough. half assed job.

    idiots on both sides will try to draw conclusions from it.

    don’t be an idiot

    • Shelter in place actually works. IF you do it and do it right.

      We’re not talking about S. Korea. We’re talking about Cuomo-De Blasio land.

      • “IF you do it and do it right.”

        which word is giving you trouble?

        THIS is the author’s claim

        ‘Shelter in place has been an EPIC FAIL…”

        As my link shows.. it can work.

        The data collected by new york isn’t telling Dave what he thinks it is telling him

        Austria, New Zeeland, Tiawan. Plenty of folks have figured out how to do it right.
        has zero to do with Korea.

        • “Steven Mosher May 9, 2020 at 6:24 pm

          Austria, New Zeeland, Tiawan. Plenty of folks have figured out how to do it right.
          has zero to do with Korea.”

          If you mean Australia, you are talking out of you arse again Mosher!

        • As my link shows.. it can work.

          Yeah but not in NY, where this piece is referencing.

          Or did you think the author is unaware of “Austria” [sic], “New Zeeland” [sic], and the rest of the places that aren’t Cuomo-DeBlasio disaster land, where shelter in place might actually have worked?

          You seem a bit too sensitive dood . . . relax! It’s all gonna be okay!

    • “1. what percentage of the actual population was sheltering in place. 66% of those who showed
      up with symptoms REPORTED staying at home. That tells you nothing unless you
      know, what percentage they are of the population.”

      Actually, from the original report (or at least the press conference), 66% reported they *lived* at home (as opposed to nursing homes, jails, etc). They could have been commuting, going to the store, etc.

      The information they did collect (again, from the press conference) about transportation was “Transportation Method In Daily Life”. First, nearly half of the people did not even answer! And If people only traveled occasionally, they might have marked “none” since it was not ‘daily’.

      “basically the New york data does not go far enough.”
      I am with you there! Certainly the summary provided does not tell a complete story. They should have asked about people’s travel. They should have asked about visitors & family members.

      Too bad the actual data does not seem to be available, rather than just a press conference about the data. (Which is still way better than a comment about an article about a press conference about the data.)

    • Any contact App on a phone relies on people actually downloading it. people not switching their phone off or leaving it at home. Phones not running out of juice etc etc.

      People who have something to hide or who have an objection to being tracked just won’t co-operate. That doesn’t mean contact tracing won’t help but it’ll never be as efficient as some hope.

    • Taiwan is the only country that got it right from the outset. A number of others, that include South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and possibly Austria, eventually got it good enough to get the genie back into the bottle.

      Sweden is not even trying to get the genie back in. Just accepting 80 deaths a day for the foreseeable future – now at 3220 dead.

      UK is doing it back to front – locking everyone up in their home while importing 10k potential cases every day through Heathrow – something out of a Fawlty Towers script.

      US is a mish-mash of half a****d ideas. Funny thing – did you see all the heavily armed old, obese men cramped together in the Lansing Town Hall:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_jWONaP-4U
      Exactly what is needed to fight a virus. It is no wonder the US is a mess. Is it likely any of them are not hypertensive?

      When I am asked “why did Australia lock down?”, my answer is to avoid chaos. There were actually fist fights over toilet paper rolls in supermarket aisles just 8 weeks back. Then there is the protection of the food supply chain and all the essential services.

      If social distancing is eased in US then the ingredients for chaos are simmering. 25k cases a day can mushroom very quickly. Does not take long before the food supply chain is under serious threat. Then hoarding begins, then fights with heavily armed individuals – that is chaos.

      Social distancing does not need strict laws but it does require discipline and it appears many US citizens do not understand the difference between what they WANT and what they NEED. A curiously suspicious bunch!

      • “UK is doing it back to front – locking everyone up in their home while importing 10k potential cases every day through Heathrow – something out of a Fawlty Towers script.”

        I hear the UK is stopping this practice. UK airlines say it will put them out of business.

      • Island nations in general have done a good job. South Korea is similar to an island nation because there is not a lot of travel from its Northern neighbor.

        Reasons for island having an easier task include: natural isolation and borders, fewer places of entry, air travel can be terminated abruptly, etc.

      • RickWill
        It is obvious that people with freedom can’t be relied upon to do the ‘right’ thing. Therefore, we need a totalitarian government to closely monitor and control the movement of everyone. We can then expect to have a happy, peaceful, and safe populace. /sarc

    • “basically the New york data does not go far enough. half assed job.”

      Yes, this failure to collect adeqate data is turning into a real problem. This is something the federal agencies should be jumping on with both feet. How do you know what to do if you don’t have adequate data? Answer: You don’t know, and this causes you to do ignorant, counterproductive things. There is no excuse when the data is there to be collected and the collection just isn’t done.

  27. Not surprising. Flu deaths peak in cold weather not because of lockdowns like we currently experience but largely because people voluntarily stay indoors and crowd together to keep warm. Its an incubator for infection. Forcing people to do exactly the same thing to ‘slow down’ COVID 19 is counter intuitive.

  28. Why?

    1. shopping (going out for supplies).
    2. elevator buttons.
    3. narrow sideways with too many people (every wearing masks.)

    But, still, NY and Michigan are the only states that have a curve that looks like “getting under control”.

  29. All I really care about is, 10’s of thousands have reportedly been killed by the Wuhan virus and 10’s of millions have been unemployed by the response to the Wuhan virus. And none of this would have happened without the blatant malfeasance of the Chinese Communist Party. I would really like to turn back the clock on China’s economy to the period of time when their most valuable export was rubber doggy doo. Then I would like to find another supplier for that.

    • Yes, ultimately the Chinese Communist leadership is the source of all of our problems.

      We shouldn’t let them forget it, or let them think we are going to forget it.

      No, it’s a brand new world. Our future actions will be based on what the Chinese leadership has done. We are going to hold them to account.

  30. In New Jersey as of today 53% of all deaths were in long term care facilities eg nursing homes. How can adjacent New York be only 20%

  31. Most of the cases and deaths are in and around large, crowded metropolitan centers with less than clean air. Even slight lung damage as a result of long term living in such places has to be looked at as an enhancer of the severity of the disease. But I know it would be politically incorrect to actually make a finding about this because these conditions have been allowed to fester for decades. No one wants to take the blame for this epic failure of our modern world.

    • I live Warren County New Jersey. Its has a pop of 100K and is semi rural. 80% (80 out of 100)of the deaths here are in nursing homes.

  32. I’m skeptical about this whole thing. I think everyone will end up catching covid-19 sooner or later, unless a vaccine is produced.

  33. Taiwan demonstrated the priorities in avoiding an epidemic;
    #1 close borders and separate people – flights from China stopped in January.
    #2 use a fast, effective test to identify cases – testing up and running in January
    #3 implement the contact tracing plan – have had a plan for decades, which includes every electronic form of contact tracing through to more manual processes.

    Taiwan has recorded 440 cases and 6 deaths to CV19; last death exactly a month ago. Near zero economic impact with GDP still increasing but down on forecast by a few points.

    These are the only actions that matter. Everything else is after the genie is out.

    The US score in my view on each of these is – 3 for borders because they eventually stopped flights from China and other locations but no internal border controls and did separate people in most States; 2 for testing because they were slow to get an effective test and 0 for contact tracing plan – there was no plan before the virus and appears to be little or no tracing now (most cases found as they present at hospitals) resulting in deaths to resolved of 27%. Countries with effective tracing have deaths to resolved of about 1.5%. Even Spain has done much better than US despite being initially overwhelmed; deaths to resolved 17%.

    The results for an approach that has the priorities correct gives stark contrast to the USA – so far 80k deaths with somewhere between 1500 and 2000 daily deaths for the foreseeable future.

    The crazy thing, it only takes 14 to 20 days to completely deprive the virus of hosts provided those that are on their backs suffering the worst but still alive are effectively quarantined from everyone else. Taiwan’s potential epidemic lasted 1 month; exponential rise in cases from 14 March and down to 1 case in a day by 11 April.

    Good luck USA – you need it. As far as I can discern that is all you have in the arsenal.

    .

    • “Good luck USA – you need it. As far as I can discern that is all you have in the arsenal.”

      I would say the U.S. is doing pretty good considering we had to start from scratch, and we are getting better every day with production of all medical equipment ramping up. You don’t hear any cries for ventilators any more because Trump has gotten the private sector producing more than the U.S. needs, and we are now exporting ventilators. The same with PPE and with testing. The U.S. will have the best and most testing of any nation on Earth before it is all said and done.

      The U.S. is going back to work and will be on top of this situation shortly. Watch us roar!

  34. WANT TO SLASH CORONAVIRUS DEATHS? START (REALLY) CARING ABOUT LONG TERM CARE
    A “Manhattan Project” mentality is already being deployed for the development of a vaccine and treatments. We need to do the same to protect vulnerable older people.
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/opinion/495733-want-to-slash-covid-19-deaths-start-really-caring-about-long-term
    By Karl Pillemer and Mark S. Lachs , Opinion Contributor May 01, 2020

    What if a targeted set of actions taken in January would have cut COVID-19 deaths by 40 percent or more and reduced hospitalizations by a similar amount? And what if this possibility still exists?

    No, we are not talking about a vaccine, a drug treatment, or a new surveillance and testing system. We are talking about stopping the coronavirus from entering nursing homes and assisted living facilities.
    __________________________

    Good thoughts, better late than never.

    I wrote on 21Mar2020 based on the data available at that time:

    “Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
    This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.”
    ______________________

    I still say that was the correct call.

    What actually happened DURING THE FULL LOCKDOWN in places like London and New York City was THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT I STATED:
    – A full lockdown of the total population and the economy, costing trillions of dollars, killing the economy, harming billions of low-income people and over-protecting the low-risk population.
    – Incredibly incompetent, almost criminal lack-of-protection of the high-risk population, such that ~half of the deaths occurred among the elderly in old-age homes.
    – Delay in building herd immunity, such that Covid-19 may return in the Fall of 2020.

    • Is this story true? Is Cuomo really that stupid (hard to believe) or was it deliberate homicide?

      https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/05/10/giant-cuomo-killed-my-mom-sign-erected-on-bridge-as-heartbroken-new-yorkers-grieve-on-mothers-day-919031

      Many New Yorkers are ushering in a grim Mother’s Day this year amid accusations that Governor Andrew “Cuomo killed my mom” thanks to his deadly policy that forced nursing homes to admit coronavirus patients.

      The bone-headed move resulted in the deaths of thousands of senior citizens living in nursing homes.

      Cuomo mandated that nursing homes must accept coronavirus patients even though older people are the most at-risk to die from COVID-19. Making matters worse was the fact that nursing homes did not have personal protective equipment or COVID testing capability.

      Shockingly, the mainstream media not only gave Cuomo a pass on the scandal, but lionized him as a hero.

    • Did New York Governor Andrew Cuomo copy British practice? He reportedly ordered Covid-19-infected patients into old folks homes and killed them all off. No wonder New York and London have very high death rates attributed to Covid-19 – it looks like the same deliberate government policy. Qui bono?

      Dr. Malcolm Kendrick, a Scottish physician, wrote:
      https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/21/the-anti-lockdown-strategy/
      [excerpt[
      “Unfortunately, it seems that COVID-19 has infected everyone involved in healthcare management and turned their brains into useless mush.

      [In my view, if we had any sense, we would lockdown/protect the elderly, and let everyone else get on with their lives].

      However, the hospitals themselves have another policy. Which is to discharge the elderly unwell patients with COVID directly back into the community, and care homes. Where they can spread the virus widely amongst the most vulnerable.

      This, believe it or not, is NHS policy. Still.”
      ____________________

    • I posted this note yesterday – it was supposed to be a satire.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/09/two-thirds-of-new-york-covid-19-patients-were-sheltering-in-place/#comment-2990431

      I posted the following note in wattsup BEFORE this article by David Middleton was published. Notice the similarities. Now if I were a typical false-news-fabricator from the mainstream media, I’d concoct a wild story around these facts, something like this:

      It is clear from these events that the intent of the leftists in charge of big cities like New York and London was to “cull the herd”, by deliberately exposing the elderly and infirm to the Covid-19 illness – such as herding them into crowded quarters, exposing them to infected care workers, etc…

      Why else would the number and mortality of the Covid-19 illness be so much higher in leftist-run cities than elsewhere? And why would the leftists who run these cities want this to happen?

      First, many of the far-left are neo-Malthusians, Club-of-Rome types, who want to reduce the world’s population. Second, killing off the elderly and infirm cuts down on pensions and welfare costs. Third, older people tend to vote Republican, because they are too sensible to be Democrats. Fourth, prolonging the death toll could lengthen the lockdowns and further damage the economy, demoralize and impoverish the populace and make them more dependent on government handouts, paving the way for a permanent socialist state. Fifth, extending the lockdowns could hurt the re-election prospects of Republicans, including one Donald Trump.

      But I’m really not like them, those odious false-news-fabricators of the left, so I would never make up a story like that.

      Sarc/off 🙂

  35. Old Swedish army practice for flu seasons. If a garrison gets infected send troops out to the forests. Teams live out-door life in tents clearly separated with each other (mile, half mile). Just the opposite of stay at home! Surprisingly, governments even try to prevent natural go to your vacation home idea.

    Fever, becoming tired and lack of appetite are natural ways to increase social distancing. The sick normally isolate, too. But we don’t. We send infected people to nursing homes. Hospitals do not isolate infection patients from cancer patients and so on. Families are locked down with their infected members. Most of the cases are mild and you don’t want to test yourself to be quarantined or even worse.

    • “Teams live out-door life in tents clearly separated with each other (mile, half mile). Just the opposite of stay at home!”

      What’s the difference between several people spending time together in a tent, and several people spending time together in an apartment? Nothing I can see.

      Btw, I doubt the troops were separating from each other at that distance. Think about it.

      • “What’s the difference between several people spending time together in a tent, and several people spending time together in an apartment? Nothing I can see.”

        Troops are protected from the outside world. No garrison’s cafe, no visits to girl-friends and parents. Out-door exercises whole day and if you have symptoms, you definitely want out and get to the doctor. Coughing inside a sleeping bag is like having a mask.

        You have your survival kit with you and cook your own meals. No groceries, elevators, door handles, neighbors.

        Distance between teams must be long enough that they do not want to contact each other.

        Let’s have a month hunting and fishing in a log cabin in the wilderness while even doing our remote work.

  36. “In at least 14 states, more than half of coronavirus deaths are tied to long-term care facilities for older adults, according to a New York Times database.” “At least 25,600 residents and workers have died from the coronavirus at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities for older adults”
    What is the definition of “sheltered in their homes”? The nursing home workers sheltered in the nursing homes?

  37. Rod McLaughlin posted the updated LockdownSceptics’ analysis.

    Ferguson Protection Team has been assembled, including from Imperial College:

    9 May: Daily Mail: Professor Lockdown Neil Ferguson should NOT have resigned over secret trysts at his London flat with married mistress say epidemiologists because ‘we need all the assets we can use in time of crisis’
    •Experts blast ‘misconception’ that one man was the ‘architect of the lockdown’
    •Scientists release a joint statement to defend introduction of social distancing
    •Thibaut Jombart described his shamed colleague as ‘one of the best in the world’
    By Tom Pyman
    Thibaut Jombart, a member of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicines Moddeling Group, and senior lecturer at Imperial College London, where Professor Ferguson was based, coordinated the letter and praised his colleague’s influence on BBC Radio Four’s Today programme.
    ‘I’m against targeting any individual in general irrespective of what happened which was an error of judgement,’ he said. ..
    ‘There’s a lot of brilliant epidemiologists in the country and he’s definitely one of the top ones in the world. In this time of crisis we need all the assets we can use so I think he should have stayed involved.
    ‘He’s a very experienced modeller, I’d rather have him on SAGE. So I hope he will stay involved in one way or another in the science.’…

    The scandal broke on Tuesday and critics have said he ‘undermined the government’s lockdown message’ on one of the darkest days of the pandemic.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8303021/Professor-Lockdown-NOT-resigned-secret-trysts-mistress-say-epidemiologists.html

    10 May: Daily Mail: Has our mad mass house arrest during Covid-19 saved even a single life?
    by Peter Hitchens
    We will not escape from this misery until the Government has been forced to admit that it made a foolish mistake and over-reacted wildly to Covid-19…
    Even when Professor Neil Ferguson, chief advocate of the Panic Laws, was caught ignoring his own rules, nothing changed. The nation giggled and missed the point. I actually care more about what goes on above Prof Ferguson’s neck than what takes place below his belt.
    The significance of his action was that even he doesn’t believe his scare stories enough to obey the rules based on them. Well, I don’t believe those scare stories either and never have.
    But thanks to him and his raving prophecies, I now live in a country where the police – the police! – seriously consider prosecuting a free man for canoodling with his married mistress…

    We are living in a mad country, governed by clowns. Who will save us from this, or must it just go on for ever?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8303715/PETER-HITCHENS-mad-mass-house-arrest-Covid-19-saved-single-life.html

    9 May: UK Sun: SECOND LOVER Husband of lockdown-breaking Professor Ferguson’s lover Antonia Staats ‘has his own mistress’
    by Nick Parker
    PIC CAPTION: Professor Ferguson and Ms Staats are said to have met on dating site OkCupid, which has become popular with left-leaning couples who share liberal views…

    Prof Ferguson, 51, would have been asked whether he reckoned Brexit was either “terrible for the UK” or “great for the UK”.
    He would also have been quizzed on whether he considered his political beliefs to be either, “liberal/left, centrist, or conservative/right”.
    The algorithm matched him with blonde Ms Staats, a south London-based left-wing campaigner with a masters in Asian politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies…

    Ms Staats – who lives in a £1.9million home in Clapham, South West London – is also a climate change activist who joined anti-press protests outside Parliament in 2017…
    The Sun on Sunday source added: “The fact that Professor Ferguson was matched with a left-wing activist makes his political leanings pretty clear.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11586872/husband-professor-neil-ferguson-lover-seeing-woman/

    9 May: UK Express: Professor Lockdown confounded science, says CAROLE MALONE
    WHY was it the fact that Professor Neil Ferguson couldn’t keep it in his pants heralded his sacking (sorry resignation) not his disastrous doomsday projections that forced this country into a financially crippling lockdown?…

    He should also be kicked out of Imperial College. But why was this “moron” (Elon Musk’s word for him not mine) ever allowed to foist his wildly inaccurate, End of Days study on to this Government in the first place? Who made him the Poster Boy for coronavirus? Didn’t anyone bother to check what his farcically off-beam models on past viruses were? Didn’t anyone in Government stop to say: “Actually this bloke’s predictions over the past 15 years have all been cobblers.”

    Because if they had, they’d have seen Ferguson said Mad Cow would kill between 50 and 50,000 Brits, a range so broad that even me, with my B grade in science, could have taken a better shot at it. The actual death toll was 158.
    He said that Bird flu could “probably” kill around 200million worldwide. In the event it killed 455 people globally. In 2009 he said Swine Flu could kill 65,000 in Britain – the death toll was 283.

    Ferguson’s spectacular failings makes you wonder what passes for a scientist these days. What must your achievements be before you’re given the onerous responsibility of deciding what happens in the teeth of a pandemic? I know science and scientists can’t ever be exact, but surely anyone with a reputation for being a decent one must have scored some accurate hits at some point? Surely, they can’t get away with saying 500,000 people could die from Covid (as Ferguson did) when, even with the Government’s often inept handling of the virus, there have been under 30,000 deaths. And no, that’s not nothing – but it isn’t 500,000…

    Yes, Ferguson is a hypocrite and an arrogant toe-rag who thought the rules didn’t apply to him. But not only has his flagrant breach of the regulations tarnished him, it’s tarnished the reputation of Imperial College. And we’d be right in thinking that if Professor Lockdown is the best they have – and the people running the college must have thought he was otherwise why make him the frontman – then God help us!
    So the question remains – why DID this Government blindly follow, without question, his hopelessly unreliable studies?…

    It was using Imperial College models that led scientists to predict Sweden’s lax measures would lead to 40,000 deaths In fact there have been fewer than 3,000 (NOW 3,220)…

    We stuck to lockdown because Ferguson terrified us by telling us what could happen if we didn’t.
    I wouldn’t trust this bungling pillock to tell me what day it was so why did this Government entrust him with Britain’s survival?
    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1279871/professor-neil-ferguson-lockdown-measures-sage

    • “We stuck to lockdown because Ferguson terrified us by telling us what could happen if we didn’t.”

      Was Ferguson the only one? I believe there were and are many virus computer models out there and most of them were predicting similiar scary numbers to the numbers Ferguson was predicting.

      So, if you are a government leader and you have numerous virus computer models predicting disaster, then what do you do? Do you say the modellers don’t know what they are talking about? How do you know? How can you ignore them in good conscience, especially when you have no basis to claim they are wrong?

      After-the-fact analysis is useless in an unprecedented situation like the Wuhan virus pandemic. Leaders have to act before the fact and hope they got it right. Requiring more of the leaders is unrealistic. They are making decisions based on very little data and possibly millions of lives are at stake.

      Let me say something about an unprecedented crisis.

      It is inevitable that mistakes will be made when we enter a situation that noone has ever experienced before, so we should give our leaders a little bit of leeway. This is just as new to them as it is to us.

      In this kind of situation we make broad restrictions and then as time goes along we see that some restrictions are not necessary and we can relax those restrictions, but we should not be blaming our leaders for their initial restrictions, because they, like us, have never been here before and don’t understand all the ramifications of the decisions they are making. This understanding only comes with time.

      So don’t be quck to comdenm some mistake, as long as that mistake is fixed, because this is a learning process for all of us including our leaders.

      And don’t take this as a defense of poor leadership. Poor leadership is when you see a problem and fail to fix it. That deserves condemnation.

      • “So, if you are a government leader and you have numerous virus computer models predicting disaster, then what do you do? Do you say the modellers don’t know what they are talking about? How do you know? How can you ignore them in good conscience, especially when you have no basis to claim they are wrong?”

        You play both options in your poker game. Donald Trump has been very good at that. Take actions and correct them when you know better. Remember his famous phrase “let’s see what happens”.

        Analyze the situation fast instead of just using gut instinct. Invest on tests to know where we go. Find the key problems: spreading, deaths, hospital capacity and economy. Work on all of them.

        Ban travel from China. Add restrictions when that was not enough. Focus on older people and protect them. Create excess amount of beds. ventilators and masks. Provide stimulus money to people and business but still keep the lock down short. Note that vaccines and new drugs are not possible and focus on generic ones. Catalyze innovation everywhere and let the states and local authorities to think their-selves.

  38. The UK lockdown was only needed because the NHS was not coping with demand before coronavirus. Boris and his chums had just spent the last ten years dismantling the NHS.

    That is what my letter from Boris said.

    • Could you give us some examples of this “dismantling”?

      It might also be worth pointing out that the NHS was coping perfectly well before coronavirus and has effectively been operating in second gear since hospitals were focused almost solely on covid-19.

    • BoJo has not been in power for 10 years so care to explain that claim. If you want to extrapolate, Thatcher started it in the “dismantling” 70’s!

  39. Why are we locked down? Protect the elderly who are most at risk? Epic fail! Don’t overload the health care systems? Maybe some success.
    Massachusetts covid facts:
    – 95% of deaths are over 60 yrs old
    – 98.3% of covid deaths involve underlying conditions
    – 83% were previously hospitalized
    – 60% are from extended care facilities
    While there are exceptions, There is low risk to the young and healthy.

    • “While there are exceptions, There is low risk to the young and healthy.”

      Are you sure about that? I hope you are right.

      Damage from the Wuhan virus seems to be showing up in asymptomatic people after they have had the disease and gotten over it.

      So is this damage occurring in every person who goes through an entire Wuhan virus infection? Will damage to organs and blood vessels start showing up in people who have already had the Wuhan virus? This is occurring, although in small numbers at the present time, but is this all, or do we have more surprises in store from the Wuhan virus.

      We should hope that an asymtomatic infection does not produce long-term damage to the body, but we don’t know this is the case.

      We should probably hold off on sending children back to school until at least the fall semester. That will give us more time to figure out what this disease is doing. We may have to treat every person infected using anti-virals as soon as the infection is detected in order to rid the body of the virus and the damage it causes as soon as possible.

      If it doesn’t do long-term damage to large numbers of people, then we could feel safe in letting the children become infected. But the jury is still out, as far as I can see.

      • “Damage from the Wuhan virus seems to be showing up in asymptomatic people after they have had the disease and gotten over it.”

        Are we sure about that? Many improper conclusions are being drawn from tests that give both false positives and false negatives.

      • “Damage from the Wuhan virus seems to be showing up in asymptomatic people after they have had the disease and gotten over it.”

        “We should hope that an asymtomatic infection does not produce long-term damage to the body, but we don’t know this is the case.”

        So we know that we don’t know? 🙂

        We need more rigorous examination of asymptomatic and people with mild symptoms via blood test for fibrinolysis and MRT/CTs for tissue impairments. Problem here is that it is very difficult for children to stay still long enough to get high quality pictures from MRT/CTs. But at least blood should be possible.

        Microembolisms that go merely undetected could have bad outcomes in the long runs.

        If you think about the headaches as a common symptom in the context of COVID-19 you might hope they are not generated from microembolisms in the brain. The brain has very limited regenerating capacity compared to other organs. As has the heart.

  40. Though of course some thought lock down was necessary on flimsy evidence from Neil “who couldn’t handle his own baggage and keep it locked up” Ferguson, and were unable to even produce data to illustrate those that died “of” or ” with” – that takes a certain madness, even thinking those that disagreed with him were being paid- huh!

    “No country has ever improved the health of its population by making itself poorer. Lockdown is impairing our ability to live with the effects of this virus, while not changing the long game’

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now Dr John Lee.

    • The UK has just passed Italy in terms of cases and deaths, but Russia is on its tail, at lease in terms of the number of cases. In effect, Sweden is doing a better job.

  41. People are funny. They employ magical thinking and herd hysteria in response to both a mythical boogeynan (“climate change”) and a real threat, the Covid-19 pandemic. They will take factoids about something and blow them up to bolster their Belief System. Those in positions of power especially love doing this, as it bolsters and perpetuates their power.
    Take, for example, the mythology of the efficacy of mask-wearing by the general public. At first, the idea was both pooh-poohed as ineffective and even net negative and condemmed, as people were stockpiling and hoarding those needed by the health industry. It should be noted that even the much-vaunted N95 respirator has a somewhat limited value, particularly once the coronavirus is airborne in aeorosol form. The surgical masks, much less so. Those are useful only as protection from virus-laden water droplets, resulting from coughing, sneezing, and certain procedures. Then, the CDC reversed course, recommending that people wear masks of the homemade variety. Why? Was the original science faulty? No. It was a purely political decision. Give the sheeple what they want, which is to feel safe, even though they aren’t. Next we have that magical 6-foot distancing rule, which was based on a finding of how far water droplets from a sneeze can (supposedly) carry. Notice the factoid, based on a particular, and frankly unusual circumstance; that of someone who has the coronavirus, and has obvious symptoms being out in public. Yes, because when I’m sick, the first thing I want to do is go mingle with people, go shopping, etc.
    There are indeed many parallels between the climate hysteria and Covoid-19 hysteria. In addition to the magical thinking, there is the use of public shaming, and the use of laws and police to try to force people to conform to what amounts to a sort of religion, or cult mentality.

    • Oh, don’t get me started on the face-mask thing: The reason for the flip flopping is pretty much what Bruce C. states — political. And, I’ll take it a step further: the reason that it CAN be political is because the quality of research supporting mask effectiveness is not that good.

      I’ve been looking at different studies on mask wearing for the past few weeks, and, from what I have read, studies tend to point out the limitations of evidence, paucity of research, and need for better studies, but, inevitably (and I mean almost in every such study) the authors make a recommendation to wear masks with an implied level of confidence that defies the very research reviewed in their own study.

      This shows, NOT scientific reasoning, … but faith, hope, unwavering dedication to tradition, and desperation to create the appearance of an effective recommendation. If grant funding were involved in any of the studies, then this would further incentivize the researchers to make a recommendation. Otherwise, the funded study might be viewed as not having earned is funding.

      Hopefully, I can pull all my reading of these studies into a coherent article soon, NOT aimed for this blog (I’m not worthy), but maybe for my own little collection of articles at hubpages.

      I was in a local Walmart yesterday, and I noticed a sign outside recommending face coverings before entering. I thought to myself, “Why not a sign recommending that people loose weight? Why not a sign recommending that people stop smoking? Why not a sign recommending that people purchase a variety of fruits and vegetables? Why not a sign recommending that people walk ten thousand steps per day?”

      Why not have a scale at the front of the store, and an attendant with body-fat calipers, to assess the body mass index of all customers entering the store? Really, why not?! Fat isn’t contagious? Smoking isn’t contagious? Sitting on your ass for extended hours isn’t contagious? Well, yeah, not in the immediate sense of catching a cold. But, in a longer-term sense, all these things are contagious, because we enable them, and enabling and forgiving and accepting are forms of transmitting ill effects.

      The COVID-19 myopia, thus, is so very shallow.

  42. I suspect that most of these New York City residents live in situations where they can’t go to the grocery store without using an elevator or going down a stairwell that is used by possibly hundreds of other people. Could it be they picked up the virus there? Overall the trend in the city is good, and it can only be thanks to the lockdown. Compare it to places like Brazil and even Minnesota, now.

    • “Overall the trend in the city is good, and it can only be thanks to the lockdown.’

      Fully 30% in the city have tested positive for antibodies. If the lockdown did anything, it spread the virus out faster and more efficiently than anywhere else tested.

      It isn’t “thanks to the lockdowns” that the trends are good. It’s thanks to the natural progression of every viral outbreak in history. They all hit a percentage of the population and then slowly burn out.

      • The lockdown in Russia does not seem to be very effective.

        Do Russia, Brazil and India have the potential to catch the U.S. in number of cases? Realistically, it would seem that India’s population would give it the edge, but Russia has the momentum. Russia should pass Italy and the U.K. in a couple of days and then Spain about a week after that. By then, the situations in Brazil and India will be clearer.

  43. When things were uncertain, the Doomsday Prophets predicted, unsurprisingly, that Doom was coming for us all. At first, this appeared reasonable to people who were afraid of the unknown, and many of these Prophets came bearing great and terrible Models, relics and artifacts said to grant sight into the future.

    And then none of the Doomsday prophecies came true. The relics failed catastrophically and their makers were quick to say “Yeah, we’ve known all along that models don’t predict the future. They’re very bad at predictions. They’re just useful at guiding policy.”

    One of the great Mantras of the Prophets of Doom was “flatten the curve”. Again, this seemed reasonable to most at the beginning, because they were shown mystical graphs without units on the axes, and were told that without “flattening”, hospitals would be overwhelmed like that one hospital in northern Italy that gets overwhelmed every bad flu season (and which was shown multiple times as if it were in New York). Millions would die!

    And then nothing happened. The hospitals weren’t overwhelmed anywhere. Many hospitals never saw a single case. Temporary hospitals set up for the inevitable surge saw nothing.

    Predictably, the Prophets of Doom have not admitted any errors. They “miscalculated”, sure, but “just wait two more weeks”. “Two more weeks” is the latest mantra as “flatten the curve” is no longer spoken, as it is embarrassing.

    The latest uttering of the Prophets is that any lessening of the restrictions (which New York’s data in the OP demonstrates failed catastrophically in their purpose) will cause the dreaded Second Wave. And while predictions of the first wave were overblown to the stratosphere, we are assured the Second Wave predictions are accurate. And if you disagree with them for any reason, it’s because you are “lacking compassion” and you want “grandma to die”. Prophets aren’t scientists, even if they play dress up sometimes. And Prophecy isn’t science, as such responses demonstrate.

    I think it’s about time we bring back the old Hebrew method of dealing with false prophets. I now understand exactly why they had it.

  44. So, the report is cases, not deaths. Right? Anything to do with testing? Rhetorical Q.

    Maybe all our general population measures are marginal, each one in succession ever more marginal? Another rhetorical Q. I wonder if more specific targeting of resultant death would be more effective than ever increasing, diminishing returns, and actual limitations on effectiveness of restrictions on an entire population?

    About some prior comments, 0.0001 or whatever it is, is good. Is there some kink of constitutional amendment mandating a complete zero – a right to be free of COVID-19? If I do nothing but try to protect myself in ways that I judge to be worth it, does that then make me responsible for the deaths in the nursing home across town? Or is it the disease? And haven’t I done my part anyway by taking some measures to protect myself? You do not have any such thing as a silver bullet in any of your policy preferences.

  45. “The Prime Minister is like a man who sets fire to his own pajamas, while he is wearing them, to cure himself of hiccups. Now he stands naked and scorched, as his house burns around him”

    PETER HITCHENS: Has our mad mass house arrest during Covid-19 saved even a single life? – Mail Online – Peter Hitchens blog

  46. Why haven’t the government recommended to everyone to reduce the underlying conditions as much as possible by: losing weight, eating properly to reduce inflammation. Take zinc, vitamin D, elderberry, maybe qurecetin, etc. ie; cheap solutions that would probably get excellent overall results.

    Is it sacrilegious to tell people to keep their immune system strong and get their health up?

      • “Take zinc, vitamin D, elderberry, maybe qurecetin”

        It’s somewhat funny to read repeatably these claims on a website that doesn’t believe in its majority that there is an easy control knob like CO2 on the climate.

        It should be obvious there is no such thing for health either. Biology is at least as complex as the climate. That is where side effects are coming from.

    • Very questionable. Mode of action of Gamorra is against viral DNA integration into human genome. SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t use this strategy at all. RNA virus without reverse transcriptase or integrase funtion.

  47. Seriously, if the conservative electorate relies in large part to people in nursing homes, then conservatives should consider how they became soooo unlikable by young people.

    I have some ideas.

    • Having endured multiple colleges, I have a pretty good idea of why conservatives are unliked by young people. Peer pressure and intimidation by authority figures are both very effective ways to spread ideology.

      • Also, pseudo conservative pseudo small gov libertarialism or Faux News style right wingism, where anything vaccine related, and vaccine pushing from the gov is worshiped, is VERY unattractive, both on practical, theoretic, philosophical and moral grounds.

        Also, both Faux News and most well known libertarians come up as pretty conformist and unintelligent people.

  48. It was the first day of the lockdown in OH when I tried to tell people that isolating the at-risk people was the only reasonable solution. I’m a conspiracy nut and was saying this all a plan to enable a NWO police state. The selection-bias with the self-selecting “worst patients” made my stats feelers tingle

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