Boris Johnson in intensive care

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Boris Johnson’s transfer to intensive care for Chinese-virus symptoms is bad news for lovers of liberty on both sides of the Atlantic. Very sadly, on current data, he is more likely to die than not. Being ill has hit him doubly hard. Not only has he continued working 15 hours a day when he should have been resting: he has never been ill enough to be admitted to hospital before, and has always thought of illness as a sign of weakness.

His Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, just a decade younger, threw off the disease in a week. Hancock had formerly suffered from two of the commonest comorbidities that kill Chinese-virus patients: overweight and diabetes. However, some years ago he altered his diet so as greatly to increase his intake of fat and to reduce his intake of carbohydrates, which are not only the primary cause of overweight, obesity, diabetes and its complications but also a significant cause of hypertension.

This permanent lifestyle change has brought him down to a normal weight and has eliminated Mr Hancock’s diabetes, just as a similar lifestyle has eradicated mine. During his tenure as Health Secretary, the National Health Service has been creakily revising its previous catastrophic guidelines for diabetes patients that had recommended patients to reduce their fat intake and keep their cholesterol low.

Mr Trump, who is working closely with chief executives of drug corporations seeking either to repurpose existing licensed medications or to develop new ones to attack the virus, has said he has put some of the chief executives in touch with Boris Johnson’s doctors so that, if he is willing, he can try out some of these medications.

In three respects, Mr Johnson’s handling of the emergency placed him at great risk. First, when he visited hospitals he shook hands with staff and patients long after it had become apparent to other nations that very great caution should be exercised. Secondly, he was one of the last leaders in the developed world to introduce first social-distancing measures and then a lockdown.

Thirdly, and most importantly, the social-distancing advice was in one grave respect flat wrong. The recommendation was that people should keep 6ft 6 (2 meters) apart. That is all very well out of doors, where the volume of air dilutes the viral density and the chaotropic effect of sunlight kills the virions. Indoors, however, 16 ft is the minimum distance necessary to be reasonably sure of interfering with transmission.

I wish him a speedy and complete recovery.

Meanwhile, here is today’s updated graph of the lockdown benchmark test. The graph shows that the daily compound percentage increase in total confirmed cases continues to fall. This is very good news. Provided that the falling trend continues for a few weeks more, and provided that the capacity to test the entire population is achieved in that time, enough will be learned about the rate of transmission and the case fatality rate to begin ending the lockdowns.

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Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 14 to April 6, 2020.

Since WordPress has not yet updated its system to allow for the fact that most computers have landscape screens, some commenters have complained that the graph is not easy to make out. It is easy to see that the trend in the case growth rate is firmly declining, but it is not easy to distinguish the curves for the individual nations. So a .pptx file is accessible here.

There are still a few commenters who would prefer that analyses such as this should not be carried out. The value of a reasonably objective benchmark, however, is that it gives all of us some real hope that the lockdowns can be progressively phased out in the not too distant future.

But it ought to be clear to anyone who has even an elementary understanding of exponential growth that, at the 20% mean compound daily growth rate in confirmed cases worldwide that had obtained over the three weeks to March 14, when Mr Trump declared a national emergency, the 67100 confirmed cases that day would have become billions by the end of April, or, allowing for the reduction in the number of susceptibles, at the latest by midsummer.

Since the confirmed cases are at present chiefly serious cases, but bearing in mind that there is considerable under-reporting of recoveries, the death rate in closed cases – those confirmed cases who have either recovered or died – is some 27%.

Given these figures, it would simply not have been responsible for governments to allow unrestricted transmission of the virus. That was why lockdowns were necessary. Yes, Sweden and some other countries took the risk of not introducing lockdowns, and Sweden, as the graph shows, has kept its compound daily case growth rate quite low with partial restrictions, just as South Korea has.

Stephen Mosher, who is in South Korea, has been kind enough to supply some details of the control measures by which the public health authorities were able to avert lockdowns:

Testing, testing, testing. Anyone who feels ill calls a central number to arrange a free drive-through test. Results are available not in 24-36 hours, as in the UK, but in just six hours.

In emergency, anyone can show up at the drive-through without an appointment, but then the test will cost $140.

No one goes to doctors’ surgeries for testing, for that would make the surgeries a focus for transmission.

Anyone flying into South Korea is tested and quarantined at home, where the authorities will telephone thrice a day to make sure you are there. Everyone coming in through the airport has a temperature test and those with fever are admitted immediately to a health centre.

South Korea has carried out close to half a million tests, representing almost 1% of the population. Of these, 10,000 were positive, or about 2%. Contrast that with the State of New York, where 30% of tests are provinjg positive.

In South Korea 20,000 people with no symptoms – contacts of those found to be infected – are awaiting tests even though they are asymptomatic.

Tracing, tracing tracing. The contacts of everyone found to be infected are actively traced. At the outset, some five cases in six were successfully tracked back to a known source, the index patient.

Recently, the average success rate in contact-tracing has risen to 95%.

If anyone is found to be infected, his whole family, contacts, church and workplace will be tested.

If anyone in a nursing home the nursing home gets sick, all residents, all staff , all family members and all visitors are tested.

If a co-worker gets sick, the whole business will be tested, together with those who share the building. All their contacts and family will be tested.

If a hospital patient gets sick, all staff, all patients, all family and all visitors are tested.

The cellphone data of all who are infected are collected. To make sure South Korea was ready for this, it has long had a policy that to obtain a phone number, receive mail or connect to the internet one must have a national identity card. Data about the location of infected people are published.

Searching, searching, searching. Beginning in Daeugu, where a large church congregation was the original focus of infection, all churches, nursing homes, mental institutions and other places where infection might pass readily are tested.

Distancing, distancing, distancing. All mass assemblies were cancelled as soon as China, having at first lied to the effect that the virus cannot transmit from human to human, admitted – catastrophically late – that it could.

Churches do online broadcasts. Churches that refuse to comply are fined, and are made to pay the medical bills of anyone with the infection who is traceable to them.

It is still possible to go to work, and most do, but any form of work that involves mass gatherings is prohibited.

Schools are closed, and an online school will open soon.

Protecting, protecting, protecting. South Korea’s chief medical officer – far and away the most impressive of the health officials I have seen interviewed – says that wearing a mask, however homemade, makes a significant contribution to controlling the spread of infection in public. When I go out, I wear a full-face motorcycle helmet, for the virus can enter the body not only through the nose and mouth but also through the mucous membranes of the eyes. Around nine-tenths of the South Korean population wear masks in public.

To prevent panic-buying of masks, they are rationed to two per person per week.

Hand-washing in South Korea is already standard practice, because the nation has had so much recent experience of epidemics originating in the squalid, filthy conditions that prevail in Communist China – SARS, MERS, swine flu H1N1 etc., etc.

All unnecessary trips outside the home are forbidden. Go to work or to the food shop, but otherwise do not go out.

Since even this partial lockdown may cause psychiatric problems for some, mental health professionals are at the other end of a hotline, waiting for anyone to call them for reassurance or advice.

Informing, informing, informing. The South Korean civil defence organization are known as the yellow-jackets (for they wear hi-viz jackets). The yellow-jackets provide factual briefings to the public twice daily. No politics: just the numbers and the facts. The sharing of information with the public is known to have an immensely reassuring effect. If there are difficulties, the yellow-jackets admit to them openly and explain exactly what is going to be done to overcome them.

A recent daily briefing is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-WyK0uKuWI&t=639s.

Encouraging, encouraging, encouraging. The dead are honoured, The public are given encouragement. All are thanked for their efforts and their understanding.

I am most grateful to Mr Mosher for that information, which I have not seen anywhere else. It is important that we should all learn from the country that has achieved the most successful containment of the pandemic.

Some commenters here have questioned South Korea’s approach, saying that the very effectiveness of the control measures will leave most of the population without what the British chief medical officer of health (still suffering from Chinese-virus symptoms) has called “herd immunity”.

As I shall explain in my next posting, this is not the case. Confirmed cases represent only one-tenth to one-hundredth of the true number of cases. We do not yet know exactly, but, as I shall explain and demonstrate in a later post, we know that those who die today will have contracted the infection about three weeks previously, but we also know that the total number of reported cases three weeks ago was far less than the number of deaths reported today.

Therefore, much more population-wide immunity is being acquired than the official confirmed-case count shows. Particularly in the absence of widespread testing, the confirmed-case count inevitably highlights only those cases serious enough to have come to the authorities’ attention.

However, anyone who has worked at a senior level in government will know that, when there is insufficient information to be sure that population immunity is being acquired, and when the confirmed-case count is rising at a compound daily rate of 20%, as it did on average during the three weeks to March 14, it would be irresponsible to bet that that rate would not persist. That is why the lockdowns were introduced.

Finally, some commenters have pointed out that even if the daily compound case growth rate is falling, the actual growth in cases may well be stable, or even rising. Yes, of course. That is self-evident. But the purpose of control measures was to prevent the rampant, exponential growth in confirmed cases, and eventually in deaths, that could have overwhelmed the capacity of the hospitals to provide intensive care.

Already, the British National Health Service has had to lay off a quarter of its staff because they or those close to them show signs of infection and there is not enough testing capacity to check whether they are free of infection (it is believed that five-sixths of those off work are not infectious). Huge emergency hospitals have had to be built to cater for the expected number of cases, and similar steps have had to be taken in New York, for instance.

At the Porton Down facility in England, detailed serological research on thousands of blood samples from randomly-chosen members of the public is now being conducted, and will be ramped up in coming weeks, to reveal the extent of the population immunity.

As always, keep safe. And please understand that lockdowns have not been introduced as a way of extending the police state. They are a temporary measure, and the results of the benchmark test are beginning to suggest that the lockdowns can begin to be carefully dismantled a great deal sooner than HM Government had at first feared.

265 thoughts on “Boris Johnson in intensive care

  1. If anything has shot up, it’s the rates of domestic violence.

    Boris has to pull through, the others are simply ghastly.

    • Dont worry, guest blogger is wrong. Intensive care does not mean put on ventilator.
      Only a small percentage of people in intensive care die and that is of the ones that are put on ventilators. The others are there for monitoring and oxygen. Dont worry, most likely BJ will be just fine.

        • Interesting; the Yorkshire Post has ignored the bit I mentioned elsewhere wrt being on mechanical ventilation, i.e, for those patients who have gone into intensive care, but not needed to be put on mechanical ventilation within 24 hours of their arrival, the recovery rate is of the order of 70%.

          I’m not sure if other countries have the same sort of issue, but the UK media is really doing my head in with their negativity; the other day the number of daily deaths had risen by about 9, i.e. 1.5%, compared to the previous day but the ITV news was all “today’s number of deaths is even higher”. Well, yes, but it was only very slightly higher, which would’ve put a much more positive slant on it and actually suggest there was a ray of hope. I’m glad I’m not clinically depressed.

      • Indeed. The latest news (as of the time I’m writing this) is that he “spent a second night in intensive care and was in a stable condition ” and that he “has received oxygen support but was not put on a ventilator”. Hoping that from here he only gets better rather than worse. Our thoughts and Prayers from this side of the pond go to Mr. Johnson and all those who’ve been hit by the ChiCom-19 virus.

        • I can’t bring myself to pray for him but I do hope he pulls through.

          I note the valiant viscount has stopped overtly declaring his wonky graph “proves” shutdowns are working though he now attempts to take it as given and just talk around it.

          Yes of course the curves are bending down as the doubling time lengthens. This does NOT prove confinement is the cause of nor that it is working or even having any visible effect.

          All these counties numbers of daily cases are progressing as any epidemic does. His crumby presentation with a USA based “benchmark” period applied to all epidemics at different stages throughout the world , which crappy distorting 7d running means just makes a noisy mess where not change detecting a specific event is possible nor are any countries dates of shutdown even on the graph.

          This is a classic work of obfuscation, not a proof that anything is working or when ( assuming it is working ) we may allow ourselves the liberty to go outside our own homes again, to the new distopian world he is designing for us.

          Look at today’s figure from France, now clearly over peak COVID.
          https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-growth-france-2.png

          The dates are marked and we see nothing but a continual bending over of the graph. Normal progression of an epidemic. WHERE is the stunningly important effects of the shut down which is so significant we can destroy our collective economies and individual lives for ?

          WHERE ?

          If someone can see it please point it out.

          It would appear that CofB’s figures are some kind of crudely filtered attempt at the slope of that line. Yes the slopes are decreasing that would still be the case without global house arrest.
          The only claim can be that we are turning the curve quicker because of these measures. There is NO evidence here ( or elsewhere ) that is happening.

          But it ought to be clear to anyone who has even an elementary understanding of exponential growth that, at the 20% mean compound daily growth rate in confirmed cases worldwide that had obtained over the three weeks to March 14, when Mr Trump declared a national emergency, the 67100 confirmed cases that day would have become billions by the end of April

          … and by the same dishonest logic by the end of May the number of cases would be orders of magnitude greater than the entire Earth’s population. How bad would that be ??

          Does he really think that no one here is capable of doing a little maths and seeing through his BS ? Of course exponentials can not keep on growing indefinitely and he knows it. ALL epidemics bend over , plateau and go down. All models and observations show that.

          This one is no different at all. There is ZERO evidence to suggest any causal link to the shutdowns , ZERO evidence to support this specious attribution. Zero reason to accept the the immense damage this will do serves the slightest good at all.

          He has yet to even attempt to prove a linkage in a scientific way. For him it sufficient to claim that it is “blinding obvious” and walk away.

          • Greg, indeed it is difficult to come by causal evidence, however, first principles say that isolation will prevent infection.

            We do observe as you say, doubling times lengthening. Why would they lengthen when the overwhelming majority of the population has not been infected? But yet, something is interfering with the potential exponential growth.

            Of course, the proponents of lockdowns will say they are the reason. I agree with you that they might not be, but that means there is at least one other factor. What is it? I do have the feeling we’re missing something. And maybe it’s as simple as mask wearing.

            Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese, and most Asians in general leave their footwear at the door. Chinese not as much. I think that India, Sweden, Czechia and other countries will provide us with clues as to what works and what doesn’t. There are many factors to consider.

          • Jeremy Corbyn, when told that Boris was at deaths’s door said that he was praying that the Lord would pull him through.

        • My 6 year old grand daughter wanted to know why Boris Johnson was in a stable.
          I told that was because when the doctor asked how he was, he replied that he was a little hoarse.

      • Dr. Gattinoni and Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell in NYC have made the claim, with growing support, that some/many/most Covid patients shouldn’t be ventilated under high pressure because they don’t have ARDS. I believe Boris Jonson falls into this category. A couple of weeks ago, BoJo would have already been intubated, and would be dead.

    • I believe Boris will not only recover but end up as advertisement for the drugs the MSM does’t want us to use. Trump will “save” Boris.

    • So many people are really good at running a country!

      Strangely, though, they don’t run countries…

      • Correct, the Banks do!

        “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws” — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

        • The fundamental exchange mechanism of humanity is barter, i.e. trade of goods and/or services. Money is a human invention that makes barter or trade more convenient.

        • Uh oh, another bankster conspiracist. You need to kick your ZeroHedge habit, you really do. Did you know men have walked on the moon?

          • Hey nobrains356 , when did we regain control of our countries from the “banksters”?

            You think 2008 bailout was a “conspiracy theory” ?

    • In answer to the deeply unpleasant comment from Patrick MJD, to work 15 hours a day in isolation while suffering the severe effects of a fatal infection that is known to be extremely incapacitating was indeed heroic. Mr Johnson is famous for not being a quitter. For Heaven’s sake, now that he is gravely ill, find the grace to put aside your miserable, totalitarian hatred of those with whom you disagree and pray for his recovery, as people on all sides of politics all around the world are doing.

      • Good comment replying to P MJD, M of B. Also President Trump works 15 hours a day and only sleeps a maximum of 5 hours per night. When I was an Air Traffic Controller in Vietnam I worked 201 consecutive days, and this is a war we now find ourselves in. “Data about the location of infected people are provided.” is a great comment from S.M. above. I wish the same would be available elsewhere. Good luck to Boris Johnson, his survival is a definite plus. Stay safe.

      • Seconded. Crisis points bring out the best and worst in people. Apparently we know where Patrick MJD stands. Unfortunately, few of us are going out right now.

      • God Speed PM Boris to a recovery.

        “as people on all sides of politics all around the world are doing.”

        That is not happening here, across the pond. It is Orange Man Bad politics, full throttle.

        I cannot agree with lockdowns at this point and mask wearing when outside.

        Outside is not sterile. I just see masks that become petri dishes attach to my face; yes the filter the air; but they also concentrate any all toxins, virus, etc. on their surface and then you carry this petri dish inside your house. You put cell phone to your face and mask. You have glasses you touch your face and mask. You wear ear buds, you touch your face and mask. It is a false security blanket. There are just too many ways to cross contaminate.

        I guess we will know soon enough if all we have done is create small incubation chambers i.e. our homes with social distancing. There is always going to be a high or higher risk group. The majority outcome for those high risk groups is death. Once the virus culls most, >10% of the general population or lower in some places as function of population density and the rest develop the immunity, only then this will be over. There will always be more population ( I hope ) then ICUs beds or hospital beds. There will never be parity between the two (I hope). Think all we are doing is delaying the inevitable.

        This is not even that bad of a virus. We, the human species, have had far worse historically speaking. Imagine if this virus had only 10% of Ebola’s killing power and maintained its contagion susceptibility.

      • Very well put Christopher Monckton.

        As soon as I saw the headline of your article, I just KNEW that within a few comments there would be an absolute jerk with a big chip on his shoulder

        • Part of leadership is setting the right example for others. He is now working 0 hours a day, because he made poor decisions about taking care of himself when he knew he was infected.
          1) Prioritize – many things that you think cannot wait, can wait.
          2) Delegate = many things can be assigned to other capable people.
          3) Listen to you doctor – they understand what you need to do, better than you do.

          Good luck Boris. I don’t mean the above as criticism, but as a warning to others. If you have been infected take the time to get better. Your helping yourself and everyone else.

      • “pray for his recovery”

        If praying actually did anything besides making the prayor feel good about themselves, then I’d do it in a heartbeat.

      • Dear Mr Monkton

        I know you are writing for primarily an American audience but as a Brit “meters” 🙂

        Seriously what are your thoughts that the blood transfusion service in the Uk are not testing sample for infections or for immunity, especially as the medical staff are in place?

        In the UK the support for Boris comes from all sides of the political divide however the bad losers on the left are constantly sniping and even worse are down right offensive.
        Take care
        Stuart Harmon

  2. Wearing face masks is very important because the virus is in a aerosol that we breathe out. This means that it is in mini-bead of exhaled moisture. The mask stops the aerosol.

    • The South Korean specialists in infection control agree entirely with Ren. Wear a face-mask while in the presence of those outside your household.

      • The surgical masks are only effective for about an hour and should be changed when damp.
        The dust masks from diy stores do not work.
        Surgeons wear masks to stop infection FROM them entering the sterile field, they are not TO protect the wearer.
        A simple test to the effectiveness of a mask, spray scented air freshener into your environment whilst wearing a mask, if you can smell the perfume then the mask will not prevent small aerosols from entering the respiratory tract. Also, they do not desiccate the air, if they did you would soon dehydrate!

        The virus is present in the upper respiratory tract, but lower down, it is coughing and sneezing that is the real problem, as these spread further, coughs and sneezes spread diseases.

        As we have entered the hay fever season then it may be prudent for those with hay fever to wear a mask.
        If you’re wearing a mask then you should wear a face shield as the virus can enter through the eyes.

        If a person presents with active pulmonary TB, which is spread in a similar manner to CoViD19, then they wear a mask whenever they are transferred between A&E and X-ray for example. Medical staff also have PPE, apron, gloves and masks when entering the side room. This is the protocol on respiratory wards as well as A&E.
        In the urgent care centre where I work, if a person is suspected of CoViD19 then they are given a mask to wear and we wear mask, gloves and apron. It is only if we were to do CPR would we don face shields. We’ve been told not to examine throats for tonsillitis as people are likely to gag and cough.

        • Just elaborate on surgical masks. They need to Level 3. Level 3 masks are used to prevent fluid particles from entering or leaving the wearer. While they do not stop solely airborne particles, they stop droplets of moisture which can carry the virus. They have a wire nose pinch which must be used to seal the top of the mask.
          The main challenge with those wearing other types of homemade or lower level masks is that they get a false sense of protection and tend to relax the other important protocols such as distancing.

        • “A simple test to the effectiveness of a mask, spray scented air freshener into your environment whilst wearing a mask, if you can smell the perfume then the mask will not prevent small aerosols from entering the respiratory tract.”

          Are you sure about that? Perfumes like limonene (frequently used in air fresheners and detergents) have sufficient vapour pressure to be detectable by the nose without being in an aerosol.

        • John, your comments are generally good, but scents most often are volatile chemicals, such as limonene and other terpenes, like Graemethecat says. They are soluble in air to the extent their vapor pressure allows and are not filterable as particulate aerosols, though some portion may be condensed within aerosol form. A proper test would consistent of some type of particle counter, which is impractical for more users.

          As MoB says, eye protection is also useful.

          • In primary care we only have eye protection if there is significant aerosol generation, e.g. CPR, although use of a bag/valve/mask would probably be sufficient, otherwise it is apron, mask and gloves.
            ITU staff need full PPE as they are dealing with unconcious patients who are ventilated via an endo-tracheal tube and there is significant quantities of aerosol particles. Here they wear FFP3 masks.

          • Masks Work! They are not perfect, but they are substantially better than nothing. They work the same as closing your windows to keep the heat in your house. It is not perfect. But it is much better than leaving the windows open and running the furnace.
            The more filtration between you and the problem, the better. If you are home, and the problem is far away, that is the best filtration. Every step closer to the problem requires an appropriate level of filtration to counteract the proximity of the problem.
            There is much disinformation about how imperfect solutions are not “real solutions”. Everything in life is a compromise at some level. Use some common sense.

          • Russ R is correct. Masks act as an imperfect but still significant barrier to transmission of infections such as the Chinese virus. The South Koreans strongly recommend their use.

          • John, do you have a link showing actual testing of masks’ physical performance? Here is one. There are numerous internal links, including a disussion about masks’ efficacy against viruses.

            https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/coronavirus-pollution-masks-n95-surgical-mask/?rel=1

            The results, showed that the 3M N-95 masks were more effective than the surgical masks at stopping particles.

            They turned on a diesel generator and piped the exhaust through various masks. A particle counter on the other side measure the size and density of particulates coming through in the smoke.

            https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/02/14/can-masks-protect-you-coronavirus

          • It is intuitively obvious that anything is better than nothing.
            If you found yourself in a burning room with heavy choking smoke, would you put a cloth over your face?
            The largest particles from a sneeze or cough carry enough virus to cause a flu infection in one single microscopic droplet.
            And breathed into the lower airway, the infectious dose is far lower than the same virus spread onto the nasal epithelium.
            In other words…you get sick far easier if you breathe more and large droplets, than if virions are on your nose.
            Also it must be considered the possibly huge effect that the actual number of virions a person ingests by any route has on the course of the disease in that person.
            This is a much unappreciated fact of the way our immune system works.
            A large number of virus particles will necessarily infect a larger number of cells and begin replicating in far larger numbers, than a smaller number of such virus particle.
            Our various layers of innate immunity can mop up a certain number of any invader, and dispose of a certain number of infected cells, per unit of time.
            But the antibody response that is what allows us to eventually overcome any infection begins gradually and takes a certain amount of time to even get started, and then to ramp up. The more virions and the more infected cells cranking out more virions that the infection has in it’s head start in the process, can have a hugely consequential effect on how sick a person comes, how widespread the infection is at any stage, and hence on how many cells in the host are destroyed, and how vigorous a level an immune response must ramp up to and max out at to overcome it.
            The two things that seems to make this disease so dangerous for so many…even those it does not ultimately kill outright…are the length of time a person spends being sick, and the reaching of a stage of immune activity that winds up being highly damaging in itself…the cytokine release syndrome like end stage of viral pneumonia

            We have many layers of innate immunity to infectious organisms, no one of which can do the job by itself.
            We help ourselves when we add more layers.
            It makes the job much easier for the other layers.

            Anything is better than nothing, and the protection offered by a mask may be poorly understood and understated in certain instances.

            Besides for decades of studies demonstrating the effectiveness of barrier protection…there is the obvious example of the countries where they are wearing masks faring far better than the places that do not.

          • “The largest particles from a sneeze or cough carry enough virus to cause a flu infection in one single microscopic droplet.”
            Source for this assertion is here, in section titled Influenza Virus, first paragraph and last two paragraphs:
            https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12560-011-9056-7

            Aaand…some studies which discuss the issue:
            “Meta-analysis of observational studies provided evidence of a protective effect of masks (OR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03–0.62) and respirators (OR = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.06–0.26) against severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This systematic review and meta-analysis supports the use of respiratory protection.”

            https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/65/11/1934/4068747

            “Adherence to mask use was associated with a significantly reduced risk of ILI-associated infection. We concluded that household use of masks is associated with low adherence and is ineffective in controlling seasonal ILI. If adherence were greater, mask use might reduce transmission during a severe influenza pandemic.”

            https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/15/2/08-1167_article

          • Mods, I seem to have numerous comments on various threads in moderation today.
            Thanks,

      • Japan and Singapore which were poster child for mask wearing yesterday went into lockdowns (partial for Japan). So it definitely isn’t a cure all.

        That leaves only Sweden and South Korea as the no lockdown crash test dummies left.

        • There’s Belarus, which has done nothing. We won’t get any useful figures (it’s a post-communist dictatorship) but we will know whether a great many people die (they won’t be able to stop that signal).

      • Also, distinguishing between indoor and outdoor separation distances is a very important point.

        16′ indoors may be impossible to maintain in real life, thus wearing a mask (mine is a very comfortable cloth mask) is so important.

        I have heard nonsense reasons by authorities not to wear a mask ( They make you itchy and can give a false sense of security, may reduce separation distance), all to maintain supplies to Med staff, this is reasonable, however wearing a well constructed cloth mask is one meaningful measure that we can all take to protect ourselves and others.

        I am thinking now that mask wearing out in public may, for my wife and I at least, be a life-long habit.

    • The masks don’t stop all the aerosol.. it’s a fallacy. And even if you breathe in some of the aerosol it doesn’t mean you will get it. There are more factors involved in transmission by air than just wearing a mask or not. Additionally the primary transmission of the disease is your hand to your face, not air.

      • Of course not. They’re called N95 for a reason.

        But stopping 95% of the droplets is a lot better than stopping 0%.

        It’s simply crazy to tell people NOT to wear masks when there’s a disease going around that’s spread by airborne droplets. If we could cut a mere 95% of the spread, we’d all be heading back to work by now.

        • If we could cut a mere 95% of the spread

          A reminder the primary way of contracting this disease is not through the air, it is from your hand to your face.

          And the general population isn’t putting on N95 masks because there is a shortage. Even if they did no one has done a study that I can find that says a N95 mask even would remove 95% of aerosols anyway.. they remove 95% of particulates that are big enough to get caught. Aerosols aren’t particulates. What a mask does do is slow the air down coming out of the mouth for someone infected and putting a mask on that person is necessary.

          BTW you breathe in all kinds of pathogens everyday that are floating in the air. Are you constantly ill?

          • I think that by definition, aerosols have size and contribute to particulate matter. It is also possible for coalescence to take place within mask fibers.

          • People have clearly been infected by other people with whom they had brief interactions with, and no physical contact.
            It is simply not plausible that such transmission came from virus deposited onto surfaces, picked up on the hand and then spread to the face.
            The fact is oodles of studies on transmission of various pathogens have come to contradictory and sometimes surprising and counterintuitive results.
            There is also data from clinical trials in human volunteers being exposed to various airborne viral infections, that the respiratory epithelium is the preferred site of infections transmission. The amount which constitutes an infective dose may be orders of magnitude lower for a droplet inhaled into the airway, than virus applied to the nasal lining.
            To our knowledge, how many times has a new virus infected one or a few humans in one place on Earth, and spread out to become scattered across the whole globe and into millions of people in a matter of weeks to a few months?
            Any chance this one is very good at making it’s way into people and then from there to many more?

          • There is evidence of these types of corona viruses being spread through the ventilation of apartment buildings, where the occupants had no other contact with the infected person. I am not sure this can be shown definitively, but is certainly a possibility under certain conditions.
            Masks work better on the expelling end of the equation than on the inhaling end. It is easier to filter warm, moist and concentrated, than it is to filter cool, dry, and diffuse. It also reduces surface pollution that can leave surfaces in common areas contaminated.
            So it is not just 95% protection against inhaling floating particles. It is less availability of floating particles if infected people wear the mask.

          • Excellent point Russ.
            The upshot is, for best effect, we need to all wear them in public places.

    • Wearing face masks is very important if you are infected to minimize the spread of your infected aerosols to other people. That’s why surgeons wear face masks; to prevent spreading their germs to their patients. Masks do little to prevent breathing in someone else’s infected aerosols.

      -If you know you came in contact with someone who was infected, wear a mask to minimize the chance of infecting others.

      -If you have symptoms, wear a mask to minimize the chance of infecting others.

      Oh, and change the mask frequently.

      • The implication of what you are asserting, if strictly true, is that everyone must always wear a mask, and most especially in cases of a pandemic where asymptomatic individuals are known to be able to readily spread the infection…because obviously in this case no one can know who is infected.
        We all have to wear them.
        But they may also be more effective than is currently understood or widely accepted to be the case:
        https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/face-masks-flu/

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/

        We ought to be careful before owning and passing along speculative or uncertain information of a critical public health issue, because in fact you do not know what you say is necessarily true.
        Even careful studies have given conflicting data.
        But an analysis of the particulars of infectious doses and particle size, among other factors, make it difficult to defend the position that masks to not protect the wearer.

    • “The mask stops the aerosol.”
      Or collect it from others — half full/half empty. It is all about viral load>

  3. Can I just ask the good lord why he favours lockdown when this virus has fatality numbers (currently) way below those of the common flu?

    • Here is the UK’s latest update:
      http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/UK-COVID-19.htm

      By this time of the year the flu fatalities would be fading out, while CV-19 fatalities are currently doubling every 3 or 4 days. The Uk’s first fatality was recorded just over a month ago, but now we have in excess of 6,000 dead.

      • Vuk. The flue death figures I am referring to are spread over a year.
        The Covid19 disease has only being going for a few weeks.
        Please do not compare apples with oranges.

        • Hi Charles
          That is exactly what I meant. the CV-19 appears to be very different to flu in number of respects, I was just highlighting one, the rapid rise in the rate of fatality. I don’t like much the lockdown, but I believe that is absolutely necessary in the densely populated areas. Keep safe.

      • Actually, what is different is saying that anyone who has been infected with SARS-CoV2 is registered of having died FROM CoVid19, when in fact they may well have died of something else.

        What we need to look at is the total deaths of any cause to see if there is actually a spike there.

        If there is not, there is not a health emergency, there is a Panic Attack Emergency.

        Simple question: are more people dying right now than at this time of year on the average?

    • 1956 Chinese Flu – 100.000 dead in the US. 1968 Hong Kong flu – 110.000 dead in the US. 2009 Swine flu – 9.000 dead in the US. The country was never locked down. 2020 Corona, 13.000 dead in the US, may climb to 25.000. Entire country on shutdown.

      BoJo is a very overweight, unhealthy, respiratory-challenged middle age man.
      He will easily survive no thanks to the NHS however.
      He could die at any time from walking up a set of stairs given his general poor physical health.

      But to keep the hysteria and double counting of dead in focus, the MSM needs a daily trumpet blast of gloom and geddons.

      Corona-calypse. Thousands of ‘geniuses’ and experts and not a single one has a god damn common sense clue on how to handle this properly. I would view all data sets of the dead with skepticism.

      • In response to Ferd III, it is necessary to understand the elementary epidemiology of how rapidly new infections spread. In the earliest stages, the spread is exponential, which means that the numbers appear small. But they grow very rapidly unless steps are taken to interfere with that growth. For example, just over two weeks ago a report suggested that there would only be 10,000 deaths from the Chinese virus in the United States. Thanks to exponential growth, by yesterday there had been almost 13,000 already.

        Now Ferd III claims, as that article did, to know how many deaths the Chinese virus will cause in the United States. Responsible governments, however, cannot place their faith in such inexpert estimates. Until the rate of transmission is known, all we have to go on is the rate of growth in confirned cases – i.e., in those cases serious enough to have triggered case reports. Even now, the growth rate in confirmed cases is dangerously high and would, if it were to continue, lead to millions of deaths worldwide.

        As for Ferd III’s cowering behind anonymity as he viciously attacks a gravely sick man whom he has never met, he presumes to comment on Mr Johnson’s state of health before the present infection, without having met, let alone examined (or even being qualified to examine) the patient. It seems to me that Ferd III’s comment offends against site policy, which prevents such repellent attacks on named individuals by those too craven, cowardly and poltroonish to comment under their own names.

        Moderators, please delete Ferd III’s dismal posting.

        In the meantime, Boris Johnson was, until he became infected, very far from unfit. He was famous for never having had a day’s serious illness in his life. He regarded illness as a sign of weakness.

        • I don’t find Ferd III’s comment sinking to level of a comment by Mr. Mosher yesterday finding the death of someone as “funny.”

        • “Moderators, please delete Ferd III’s dismal posting.”
          I understand your friend is in need at present M of B.

          But, censorship? Are you taking this a bit too far, don’t become vagal over it.

      • BoJo is a very overweight, unhealthy, respiratory-challenged middle age man.

        He’s a bit overweight but not particularly unfit.

      • BoJo is a very overweight, unhealthy, respiratory-challenged middle age man

        While he certainly is on the overweight side, that’s all you (or anyone else who is not BoJo’s physician) can say and be taken seriously, anything beyond that is a baseless attack that says more about you than about BoJo. Being as overweight as BoJo is does not necessarily mean also being unhealthy or respiratory-challenged. Many people in BoJo’s weight-class are otherwise fit and healthy. You can not tell someone’s health status from weight alone. The best you can do is say someone in his weight class is more likely to have certain medical issues *not* that they necessarily do have those issues.

        • Agree John, boris is also a cyclist and runner, and is a none smoker, it would also seem hes had some bedtime exercise in the last year.as for his size I would not want to stop one from him 😉

      • Park the anger that you carry. Make you point we are listening. Boris is going to live.

        The flu deaths are caused by loss of fluids as the flu attacks the intestinal system. Fluid and electrolyte replacement is a cheap simple fast very effective treatment.

        A small baby does not have reserve fluids and will die quickly if they get the flu if the fluids are not replaced. This is why in developing countries many babies are lost during flu season as they do not have access to medical services.

        This virus is different. It attacks the lungs. People suffocate.

        The isolation stops the peak. The virus does not go away.

        If we do not restart our economies, this is event is going to lead to an economic war and suffering that we do not believe is possible.

      • Ferd III yesterday wrote, “13.000 dead in the US, may climb to 25.000.”

        If you really believe that the U.S. COVID-19 death toll will not climb above 25,000, would you care to put your money where your mouth is? I’ll give you 2-to-1 odds, and make the threshold 30,000, instead of 25,000, just to make the bet more appealing to you.

        I’m not normally a betting man, but in this case I’ll make an exception. I’m willing to take an idiot’s money, especially one so obnoxious, all the while fervently wishing that I had lost the bet.

    • Flu does not paralyze the economy, unlike Covid-19. What counts is the number of infected in a short period of time, which must be treated for a long time. The number of cured cases is barely about 5% of all treated.

        • The furtively anonymous and cowardly “Icisil” is in no position to lecture governments on how to handle the Chinese virus. Figures that I shall be releasing in tomorrow’s posting will show that it is proving to be considerably more dangerous than Icisil would like us to believe.

          • Mr Monckton,

            Firstly, I appreciate the seminal work you’ve done on climate. Indeed, It was your efforts that cemented my nascent skepticism 12 years ago. However (and for what it’s worth) I suspect many on this blog must be somewhat bemused by how suddenly you seem to have developed a) a penchant for “trust in Big Government” and their remora-suckerfish advisory cohorts and b) an alarming propensity to flag-wave and whip up rather unrefined anti-China hysteria. Precisely on behalf of who, and to what end, one may ask? Why the transatlantic consensus-view, of course. You know, the same cabal that brought us Iraq, Libya, Syria, global monetary and debt-Armageddon plus plus…

            Don’t feel alone though. The list of “unbiased conservative intellectuals” who have suddenly developed selective amnesia in order to dust off the Ol’ Tribal Atavism shtick is both long and distinguished these days.

            Deep down you must – or should – know that it will take years to sort wheat from chaff regarding what the ultimate and precise underlying origins of this virus strain (and its current outbreak) were. Sure, it could very well have been China of course. But with “intent”? Please – spare us the moral relativism. The West has never been short of Grand Moral Prognosticators of course (never was), but observing the multi-layered and intractable decay in full view these days it seems more evident than ever that the transatlantic alliance utterly blew its Post WW2 endowment. On every level.

            That someone with your intellect, credentials and experience would seek to play a part, no matter how modest or obsequious, in whipping up public opinion in such a brittle geopolitical age is, frankly, beneath you. Or have I somehow misjudged your objectives here?

          • All your data are meaningless. This has become a real shit show with everybody trying to figure out something they don’t understand at all. When you operate based on a flawed paradigm, everything you do is worthless.

          • Mr Buchan has not followed the Eschenbach Rule: if you want to question something I have said, please quote it.

            At no point have I used the only words Mr Buchan has put into quotation marks: “Trust in big government”. Big government in China caused the problem we all now face. I have simply used a very straightforward method of analysing such data as are available, so as to show the extent to which various countries have improved upon the original exponential growth of 20% compound per day in total cases of infection. Fortunately, by various means, they have improved upon that growth. it is now down to about 10% per day compound – still dangerous, but a lot less dangerous than before. I am expecting the trend in the daily compound percentage total-cases growth rate to slow still further, especially in those countries that have introduced lockdowns. Provisionally, it looks as though we have bought ourselves enough time to ensure that health services are not overrun; that a suitable test for antibodies, a prerequisite to getting on top of the pandemic, will be developed; and that at least key workers can be tested for antigens.

            Like it or not, this particular infection, like so many others, originated in the squalid, unhygienic conditions prevalent in much of China. The Chinese authorities themselves, during their initial contact-tracing, found it had originated in a particularly filthy wet market in Wuhan. I have also seen some intelligence to the effect that the virus could have broken out of the Huanan biolab 800 m to the NNW of the Wuhan wet market. It is possible that Patient Zero, a researcher there, was splashed inadvertently with blood and urine from an infected bat, visited the market and subsequently died.

            Undisclosed-deletion analysis, a very powerful way of finding out whatever totalitarian regimes wish to conceal, reveals that the profile of this researcher has been unpersoned from the biolab’s website, and no profile of her has yet appeared anywhere else. Questions to the regime about her are met with bland statements to the effect that she is alive and well, but no one is being allowed to know where she is.

            Undisclosed-deletion analysis is now also being applied to the WHO’s website, revealing some very interesting links between senior personnel there and the Chinese regime.

            I have not yet gone public with this and a vast body of other intelligence on China’s handling of the pandemic. I agree with John Bolton that the politburo’s conduct constitutes a cluster of crimes against humanity in the formal, criminal sense, in conspiracy with senior figures at the WHO.

            All that I have said in these columns is that the Chinese are not telling the truth about the true extent of the serious cases and deaths in the territories they control or occupy, though I have not yet revealed the intelligence that leads to this conclusion.

          • “It is possible that Patient Zero, a researcher there, was splashed inadvertently with blood and urine from an infected bat, visited the market and subsequently died.”

            No that is not possible as the Bat Virus is ‘weaponized’ so it can defeat the defences of the human lung. i.e. A virus needs many generations to optimize their attack humans or another animal.

            Also the bat virus is not effective in its ability to infect. It infects thousands bats that live in the same cave and come back to the same cave for generations.

            To infect people, with the bat virus, would require putting a swab with the virus in their nose and then repeat if they do not get very, very sick. This approach to evolve viruses is not acceptable in a modern society.

            The Bat virus strand ‘looks’ as if it has evolved in a human host for decades which is not possible as a percentage of the Bat people would have died and they would not consent to having swabs placed in their noses with the bat virus to infect them.

            The fact that the Bat virus is evolved has not been explained by those pushing the fake Wuhan wet market theory. The first cases were not in the market. There other facts that do not support that theory.

            So if the Bat virus is evolved to optimize its attack on humans how could that have happened?

            The first ‘breakthrough’ in AI science was the ability to create an virus that can defeat the human immune system by ‘evolving’ a computer representation of the virus with a computer representation of the bioactive regions of the body.

            The goal of this international AI virus project was to create computer evolved viruses that are absolutely indistinguishable from a virus that has been evolved in a human.

            That goal was reached a number of years ago.

            The point is the Wuhan virus, covid-19 has dangerous on day one.

            It was dangerous because it could at that time defeat the body’s defences on day.

            That is what ‘weaponized’ means. Dangerous on day one.

            Those pushing a ‘natural’ explanation for the origin of the virus, need to explain how the bat virus portion of the covid-19 virus has optimized on day one to attack humans.

          • I have also seen some intelligence to the effect that the virus could have broken out of the Huanan biolab 800 m to the NNW of the Wuhan wet market. It is possible that Patient Zero, a researcher there, was splashed inadvertently with blood and urine from an infected bat, visited the market and subsequently died.

            The first bit of common sense truth CogB has said on this subject so far.

            If the powers that be are finally admitted they know this, it must have been clear to them long before it was clear to the more discerning members of the public.

            This may explain why all western govt. have gone to such extreme measures. Knowing it was of human creation yet not knowing the aims of the project which stupidly leaked it may have meant they had to assume the worst: that this may be a bioweapon, in an undetermined state of completeness and of unknown effectiveness.

            Having realised it was not a massive killer they seem to have concluded they may as well turn it into a civil defense test operation anyway to test and build resilience for the future.

            They are also clearly trying to use it to get the population to accept draconian authoritarian measures they would not have dared even suggest in normal times. It is also a safe time to bail out the banks yet again but without even having to say it is because of the banks. Blame it on “China virus”.

            As Rahm Israel Emanual famously said: never waste a good crisis.

          • I have also seen some intelligence to the effect that the virus could have broken out of the Huanan biolab 800 m to the NNW of the Wuhan wet market. It is possible that Patient Zero, a researcher there, was splashed inadvertently with blood and urine from an infected bat, visited the market and subsequently died.

            The first bit of common sense truth CogB has said on this subject so far.

            If the powers that be are finally admitted they know this, it must have been clear to them long before it was clear to the more discerning members of the public.

            This may explain why all western govt. have gone to such extreme measures. Knowing it was of human creation yet not knowing the aims of the project which stupidly leaked it may have meant they had to assume the worst: that this may be a bioweapon, in an undetermined state of completeness and of unknown effectiveness.

            Having realised it was not massively mortal they seem to have concluded they may as well turn it into a civil defense test operation anyway to test and build resilience for the future.

            They are also clearly trying to use it to get the population to accept draconian authoritarian measures they would not have dared even suggest in normal times. It is also a safe time to bail out the banks yet again but without even having to say it is because of the banks. Blame it on “China virus”.

            As Rahm Israel Emanual famously said: never waste a good crisis.

          • Greg
            Stop attacking lord monkton, you could put a argument together in a much more constructive way.

            As for the lockdowns ,i will concentrate on the UK but it may apply to any country,in 1948 we saw a important event the birth of the very first national health service, free at point of use, with a bed capacity of 400,000,compaired to today of 128,000 .since the 1980s every single government and coalition has been running the NHS down from privatising parts, to withdrawing funding , making it undesirable for home grown nurses, to underfunding and privatising offshoots of care in the community.

            We see now the government praising the NHS on the one hand,and with the other writing off billions of £s worth of debt ,which they caused in the first place,

            This is the real reason for the lockdowns which the government clearly admits the NHS cant cope but they dont link this to decades of underfunding. With a properly funded NHS there would be no reason for the lockdowns.

            Have you heard of exercise signus 2016 a drill involving all the emergency services ,a exercise in the coping with a pandemic, the net result showed the NHS was woefully unprepared for a pandemic, the results were never acted upon, and here we are today because of the failure of decades of underfunding,

            The lockdowns are a consequence of repeated governments failure to invest ,understand and take away the ability from care professionals to run their own organisation,,

            We see the UK government in a panic changing it’s own advise on how to tackle the pandemic, using different analysis from day to day, partly to cover up there failed predictions, partly to hide the fact they have caused the serverity of the virus to spread, with no testing available in any great degree to test the population, not even a months worth of PPE available to distribute to the NHS.

            Here is your real scandle Greg, a government who knew 4 years ago we could not cope with a pandemic ,it matters not in the moment were the virus originated, if man weaponised this virus , the fact is we cant cope so we lockdown as a panic reaction and as a cover up for underfunding for decades.

            So a lockdown was inevitable , only draconian measures were left to a inadequate government, some of the measures are ridiculous, personally I find the travel restrictions nonsensical as I only go from a to b with no contact with anyone, but that can not be said for others, so I’m just as pissed as you with these draconian measures , the next question is will the government take advantage of this for other reasons ,eg climate change.

          • RE: “Big government in China caused the problem we all now face.”

            China’s central government has demonstrated impotence in shutting down their disease-incubating wet markets. And they compounded the outbreak by attempting to cover it up. But Hubei’s provincial authorities deserve the primary blame for allowing these open-air markets to exist. In any case it remains a perennial issue in China as well as other countries so long as people emerging from decades of deprivation continued to be skeptical about their sources of fresh meat.

            As for your desire to remain in shutdown mode, I don’t understand how the numbers lend themselves to this. I spoke to a hardware store worker in March who had recently returned to work after four weeks out. He had called his local clinic for tesing, explaining his symptoms of fever and difficulty breathing, whereupon he was designated “presumptive positive” and told to “stay home”. He assumed this was likely due to the shortageo of testing materials. “I was finally recovering from Coronavirus,” he told me, “- then I caught the flu and nearly died.”

            Having screened all but the sickest patients, Colorado confirms only around 19% positive (5,429 Confirmed / 28,094 Total Tested). So, what ailed the other 22,665 people, the 81% who were adjudged sick enough to receive the test but were NOT positive for Covid-19? How many are hospitalized and end up dying from some combination of flu and CV, either one of which could be a nosocomial infection?

            Many other states have similarly small numbers of confirmed cases relative to those tested, all suffering from likely severe respiratory and underlying ailments. This is reinforced by the guidance issued by CDC to emphasize CV even if it is merely assumed. Pennsylvania tests revealed only 16% of all tests to be positive. Florida 10%. California, 11%. Most are between 10 – 20 %.

            We certainly must believe the reports of hospitals being overwhelmed, but these urban institutions do not represent the country as a whole, and do not imply that we should keep a country under lock-down. Chiefly the health workers I’ve heard cite the same problems: they are short of emergency protective gear, ICU beds and the nurses who can staff them. It is also painfully clear as I’ve suggested above, that states are short of tests. Most people here agree that these tests should be performed aggressively and with assiduous care. If not every man woman and child receiving a test, then it should be with select sub-groups and their contacts.

            Finally, one rather blunt theory about the acquisition of immunity holds that it is best acquired by allowing the pathogen to run its course through the “herd”. I wonder if this isn’t the most humane and cost-conscious approach, as viruses tend to mutate to LESS virulent forms as they pass unimpeded from host to host. As it races through a population it becomes attenuated – weaker – and peters out when there are no more unexposed hosts. Alternately, when an epidemic meets isolated pockets of resistance that it mutates into a more virulent strains. It is this scenario that resulted in the deadly Fall recurrence of the 1918 epidemic.

            Best wishes to Boris Johnson.

          • Greg
            Stop attacking lord monkton,

            Firstly he is NOT a “lord” he is viscount. Stop according him a peerage status he does not have.

            Oddly you chose the only post where I agree with him to say “stop attacking” him and fail to say why I should not do so. Nor do you say what is wrong with any of my arguments.

            As a citizen, I strongly object to some minor member of the landed gentry presenting fallacious pseudo scientific justification for drastic authoritarian destroying the fabric of our rights and fundamental liberties and having disastrous effects on the economy.

            In the mayhem which will ensue from such measures those with great wealth and large property portfolios will come out on of this royally which the lives of others are destroyed. They will need house arrest and worse to control the ensuing civil unrest and to hold onto their possessions. I can fully understand why he supports such measures.

            That is why I object to his continual deceitful presentations and his refusal to address criticisms of his specious claims. I will certainly not be taking orders from you as to what I can or cannot say.

            Since you are here maybe you can answer the question “his lordship” has persistently avoided. Please point out where the supposed effects of confinement can be seen in the data.

            https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-growth-france-2.png

          • Two things: Viruses leap from animals to people all the time…every single day.
            This notion that is is rare or difficult does not hold water whatsoever.
            Maybe it came from a lab…but that argument will never advance that idea.
            It is false.
            Off the top of my head I could name dozens of viruses that are known to have jumped into people.
            Some of them do it repeatedly.
            Rabies for one is capable of infected all manner of mammals.
            So is influenza.
            So are bat corona viruses.
            We got lucky…so far with Ebola.
            We got lucky with SARS and MERS.
            We have been less fortunate with many others.
            BTW…anything that has a name has happened before, and zoonosis is not a new word.

            Second point: Epic take down of “Icisil” by Mr. Monckton!
            Someone best get a bucket of water to revive Icisil with!

          • Greg, it is proper to address viscounts as lord. Lord is not a rank; it is a generic term that can be used to address a member of the nobility. Any nobleman below the rank of duke can be addressed as lord (IE duke, marquess, earl, viscount, and baron can be and are addressed as lord, like it no not Greg).

            So, for your edification, Greg, a British viscount is addressed in speech as Lord [X], while his wife is Lady [X], and he is formally styled “The Right Honourable The Viscount [X]”.

      • ren. This time last year, old folks with pneumonia were being quietly euthanised. The same people today are being rushed to intensive care.

        • This is unfortunately true. I guess when everyone is looking, euthanasia is frowned upon or is it?

        • Not in Italy they are not.
          They are being left to die alone on hallway and basement cots.

    • In Great Britain, statistics are even worse, because on 7.04 the ratio of cured to patients was 135 to 55242.

      • Ren raises a good point. During the early stages of a pandemic, the least unreliable method of estimating the case fatality rate (i.e., the number of deaths as a percentage of the number of confirmed cases) is to count the ratio of total deaths to total closed cases (closed cases being those where a confirmed case either recovers or dies). The global case fatality ratio on this basis is 27%, which is – to say the least – unusually high.

        However, one should treat that figure with some caution, both because deaths of and deaths with the Chinese virus are counted together and because recoveries are woefully under-reported or reported very late, or not at all.

        Nevertheless, there is little reason at present to be confident that the case fatality rate for SARS-COV2 will be significantly less than the 10% that prevailed with SARS-COV in 2002/3. At that time, the ever-useless WHO had predicted a 2% fatality rate, just as they had with COV2. They have already pushed that prediction up to more like 4% – and that may yet prove to be an underestimate.

        The truth is that we do not yet know, and indeed we have no means of knowing, because it is proving very difficult to find an IGG antibody test that can distinguish between this particular form of coronavirus and its predecessors, particularly because the coronaviridae have a very short genome (typically <3000 base pairs) and are accordingly prone to rapid mutation. Several variants of COV2 are already in circulation.

        In the absence of better knowledge, it would simply be irresponsible for governments to assume that this will be a mild and generally harmless infection.

        • One question re: mutation. I read somewhere (I think on this site) that viruses like COVID-19 that were originally transmitted from animals to humans generally mutate to a less virulent state once they start transmitting between humans. Are you aware of any studies that support that statement, and if so, do those studies provide any timeline for the mutated virus becoming less virulent? Also, once a person develops antibodies, are the antibodies generally or somewhat effective against mutated viruses? Do we even know?

          Thank you for continuing your posts. They are most informative, as are many of the comments.

        • “The truth is that we do not yet know, and indeed we have no means of knowing, because it is proving very difficult to find an IGG antibody test that can distinguish between this particular form of coronavirus and its predecessors, particularly because the coronaviridae have a very short genome (typically 10,000 bp) and that is because of a proof reading capacity of their RNA polymerase. Some mutation is in favor but too much will result in non-functional proteins and eliminate the virus.

          For serological antibody tests you need a specific bait peptide to decrease false positives from other strains but you also have to figure out which epitope of the virus’ surface most people generate an antibody against.

        • Very well, I shall play along in this instance:

          1. “Mr Buchan has not followed the Eschenbach Rule: if you want to question something I have said, please quote it”. Excuse me M’Lord, but surely you are not going to try and peek out from behind Mr Eschenbach on this issue? An issue raised because of your largely subective and – I posited – tribal framing of the virus origins and the consequences that flowed, and may yet flow. I pointed, using similar innuendo that used by you, that you now, either inadvertenly or by intention, find yourself in lock-step with the Elite Establishment?

          2. The crux quotes (and there were so very many of them) is “Chinese Virus” – a particular phrase which no literate person can classify as benign any longer given a) who first started uttering it in pre-loaded terms and b) who continues to utter it from every rooftop for those same purposes. With the greatest resepct, your own Bearnaiseian use, repetition and positioning of it in your latest missives makes the underlying intent perfectly clear.

          Here is the nub of it: justified your (current) conclusions may very be M’lord – but it is not only too early for that, but it also does no favours to your admittedly impressive credentials as a skeptic, a scienctist, or humanist.

          Perhaps you should recall and invoke Hanlon’s Razor and throttle back on the neo-con propaganda? Trust me, “they” don’t need your help

          • 2. The crux quotes (and there were so very many of them) is “Chinese Virus” – a particular phrase which no literate person can classify as benign any longer given a) who first started uttering it

            Just because the fake-news left/MSM label something as “racist” does not make it so. The fact is the Virus started in Wuhan China. Calling it the Wuhan virus or the Chinese virus is no more racist than referring to the Ebola Virus (named after the Ebola river in Africa), the Spanish Flu, West Nile virus, or any of a number of other less well known viruses that were named after their origin location (coxsackievirus, Marburg virus, Hendra virus etc). But Suddenly “Chinese Virus” is evil because orange man bad. You’ve let your TDS destroy your brain.

      • That 135 figure for recovered cases in the UK hasn’t budged for weeks now. They simply don’t appear to be counting the recovered cases. The Netherlands seems to be having the same problem. But other countries can do it. The Germans are showing that a third of all their active cases have now recovered. For Spain, it’s about the same. For Switzerland, it’s better – 38%.

        • Most of the stats are coming from death certificates … you don’t get one if you survive. The survival figures only get put up when the hospitals report which because they are busy is infrequently.

          In the UK I believe the NHS has now started it’s own stats but someone there should be able to confirm or correct me.

    • … this virus has fatality numbers (currently) way below those of the common flu?

      Has anyone been tracking the current cases/fatalities of “common flu” vs covid-19? I have not heard anything about this on the mass media. My guess is that overall they would have the same order of magnitude.

      I also urgently suggest that Mr. Johnson direct his doctor to apply the hydroxy-chloroquinine regimen. There are many reports now that it stops the virus, with no other significant side effects. It is beyond ‘anecdotal’ level. Doctors are intelligent and are allowed to make critical decisions to save lives. Not every decision requires a double-blind study. 😐

      • In response to Johanus, hxchloroquine (preferably in conjunction with azithromycin) has been shown to have been efficacious in two small studies, one in China and one in France, the latter involving efficacy in precisely six patients.

        Under the officinal formula, any medical professional may prescribe any medication to any patient, provided that in his professional opinion that patient would obtain more good than harm from the medication.

        The first thing any doctor should do, in these circumstances, is to put the patient on a daily gel tablet of 25 mcg (1000 IU) Vitamin D3, which has been proven in countless clinical trials and in a recent meta-analysis involving more than 10,000 patients (Martineau et al. 2017) to be efficacious in preventing infection with respiratory viruses, and in minimizing symptoms should infection occur.

        Ivermectin has also been shown to clear nearly all the viral load of the Chinese virus in vitro, but has not yet been tested in human clinical trials.

        • Doctors in the US have found hydrochloroquine and zinc effective, as in Los Angeles. Double blind clinical trials underway in NY won’t produce results in time unless COVID-19 recurs in the fall or winter.

          Italian hospitals also confirmed the limited Marseilles results.

          Ivermectin has been shown effective against the CCP virus in cell cultures. I haven’t yet found any human trial data. The anti-louse human formulation varies from the anti-mange mite veterinarian, which come both in oral and injectable versions.

          • Evidently hydroxychloroquine is a mouthful. Even Donald Trump has difficulty saying it.

          • I just did a search for “hydroxychloroquine news” and the first several pages from Google are:
            “hydroxychloroquine unproven”
            “CDC removes hydroxychloroquine from site”
            Trump pushing because he owns stock.

            WUWT… seriously, has there been some big change in that hydroxychloroquine’s efficacy or or are the media going wack-a-doodle.

          • the media has been wack-a-doodle for years and you’re only just noticing now?

            Trump pushing because he owns stock.

            LOL, yeah, all of about $99 worth and not even directly, it’s a small part of a stock fund that Trump owns shares in (stock funds are bundles of many shares of many different companies). If you own shares of a broad base ETF (in your 401K or IRA for instance), you just might own some stock in that company as well. And if not that specific company than one of the many other makers of hydroxychloroquine (it’s a generic, so more than one company makes it).

        • The French study had some serious flaws, some examples:
          only 26 patients received the treatment, of whom only 20 completed the trial.
          Of those 6, one died, three were transferred to intensive care and two were apparently too nauseous to complete the trial!
          Any drug trial would look good if you could ignore all those who died.
          In addition the participants were screened before the trial and those with medical issues were put in the control group, that’s not the way to do a proper study.
          I was posting here about HQ several weeks ago and think that there are reasons to believe it may have some effect however trials like this one are meaningless.

          • William Astley April 8, 2020 at 6:58 am
            Where did you get this inside information?

            I read the paper.

          • Did you read the study? Do you understand that this not a fight?

            Only one person had nausea. That is important. The nausea might not be caused by the drug.

            Do you understand how the treatment works?

            The treatment makes it more difficult for the virus to attach to the cells of the body. It does not kill the virus. So the earlier the patient is treated the better. If the virus does not replicate in the body the body’s defences can kill it.

            The study does not determine when the people first started to feel sick. At that time they need to be tested and treated with the drug.

            Does that make sense that timing is everything?

            A Doctor in New York has treated 600 patients of which two went to ICU. The difference is this doctor treats people in a small orthodox Jewish community. They came to him as soon as there were sick as he is of the same faith and lives in their community so he is easily accessible.

            As we know what the side effects are of this drug and there are people who take this drug daily for years ….

            … there is little risk to the patient to start treatment early as the treatment will be roughly 10 days.

            The best approach would be that as soon as people feel ill, get tested and take drug. Or alternatively, just take the drug if you are a high risk.

            A third approach would be for the people at risk would be to take the drug daily until there is a vaccine.

            People cannot isolate for a year.

            Six hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were lost in follow-up during the survey because of early cessation of treatment. Reasons are as follows: three patients were transferred to intensive care unit, including one transferred on day2 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1, one transferred on day3 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on days1-2 and one transferred on day4 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1 and day3; one patient died on day3 post inclusion and was PCR-negative on day2; one patient decided to leave the hospital on day3 post-inclusion and was PCR-negative on days1-2; finally, one patient stopped the treatment on day3 post-inclusion because of nausea and was PCR-positive on days1-2-3.

        • Recent reports speak to the efficacy of using zinc in conjunction with hydroxychloroquine. I misremember the exact mechanism, but apparently the hydroxychloroquine “opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.”

          If zinc is necessary for optimum effectiveness, that may explain the varying results from just using hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic.

        • The Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine treatment is not allowed in the UK or in Canada.

          Big Brother does not allow, it as industry does not want it and money talks. People are ignorant.

          The problem is even though we have used this drug for decades and we have known for years it stops certain viruses it has never been tested to determine its effectiveness as an anti virial drug because…

          … it would compete with very profitable anti virial drugs on the market.

          https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-not-licensed-for-coronavirus-covid-19-treatment

        • South Korean treatment

          I’ve seen this treatment in various places, utilizing zinc.

          Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a primary care physician who successfully treated the COVID-19 epidemic when it raged through a New York Hasidic community, noted in his interview with Mayor Giuliani that he adapted his hydroxychloroquine-zinc cocktail from the South Korean treatment. His prescription was the following:

          Hydroxychloroquine. 400mg first day and 200mg per day for four days
          Zinc. 220mg once daily for 5 days
          Zithromax. 500mg per day for 5 days

          In an interview with Rabbi Katzin, Zelenko detailed his success rate. He had diagnosed 699 COVID-19 patients with the disease, some by lab result and others by their symptoms and the fact that they had been in contact with others who were infected. He didn’t prescribe anything to those who were young and healthy, but he treated 200 of the others with his cocktail. His results were almost perfect:

          Zero deaths.
          Only four needing hospitalization for pneumonia.
          Only two needing hospitalization for intubation on a respirator.

          “Deaths per 1,000 Recoveries. South Korea had 29 deaths per 1,000 recoveries as compared to 249 deaths per 1,000 recoveries in the world at large.

          Deaths per 1,000 Cases. South Korea had 17 deaths per 1,000 cases as compared to 52 deaths per 1,000 cases in the world at large.”

          https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/a_solution_to_covid19_is_in_sight.html

      • @me
        “Has anyone been tracking the current cases/fatalities of “common flu” vs covid-19?”

        Answering my own question, the U.S. CDC has provided this information:
        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

        CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been:
        39,000,000 – 55,000,000
        flu illnesses

        18,000,000 – 26,000,000
        flu medical visits

        400,000 – 730,000
        flu hospitalizations

        24,000 – 63,000
        flu deaths

        *Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.

        **Influenza testing across the United States may be higher than normal at this time of year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. These estimates may partly reflect increases in testing in recent weeks and may be adjusted downward once the season is complete and final data for the 2019/20 season are available.

        For covid-19, as of today: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
        Coronavirus Cases: 418,410
        Deaths: 14,240

        So, common flu has more deaths than covid-19. But one could claim covid-19 is more deadly because the number of total cases is an order of magnitude smaller.

    • In response to Mr Nelson, I do not advocate lockdowns. I do advocate taking potentially fatal new infections seriously. The first and correct step would have been to test the entire population, isolate all carriers and trace and retest all their contacts, as South Korea has so successfully done. Since nearly all Western countries were woefully unprepared, they left it far too late to get a grip. As a result, in the three weeks to March 14 the daily compound growth rate in total confirmed cases was almost 20%. If that rate had persisted, millions would have died worldwide.

      Therefore, governments were forced into introducing lockdowns, because the mathematics of the transmission of infections depends crucially on two numbers: the number of people whom an infected person is likely to meet, and the fraction of those people he is likely to infect. In the absence of any proven prophylactic, palliative or cure, the only number that governments can influence is the number of people an infected person is likely to meet. That is why lockdowns work.

      Lockdowns would not have been necessary if governments had been adequately prepared, but they were not adequately prepared. The only choice, therefore, was to interfere with transmission by way of lockdowns, economically costly and socially disruptive though lockdowns are.

      In tomorrow’s update, I shall reveal some of the earliest evidence of how much more infectious, and how much more fatal, the Chinese virus is than the other forms of viral pneumonia, which is chiefly caused by flu. For now, I shall content myself with repeating Dr Fauci’s estimate that the Chinese virus is ten times as infectious as flu, and considerably more likely to be fatal.

      • ‘if that rate had persisted.’
        ‘if the warming rate continues as at present.’

        • Exactly. Both are spurious claims. CofB has been vociferously challenging the former here for years, only to adopt an equal specious argument himself now.

      • Lord Monckton:

        Mass-testing would result in thousands and thousands of false positives especially in the first weeks. If the test has only a 1 % probability of false positives (and that would be an excellent test), you’d get more than 600 000 false positives in the United Kingdom. That’s more false positives than real positives. And how do you isolate this number of people? A lockdown is easy to enforce because the police can patrol the streets. But isolating 600 000 people without a full lockdown would be impossible to enforce except by locking them up. That would be a gross breach of fundamental rights. (Whether or not the lockdowns are breaching fundamental rights is a different question. Here in Spain, the president broke constitution to implement it.)

        Also, your graphs imply that transmittion rates started decreasing before the lockdowns, probably because people started becoming immune.

      • wonder how much total spent on wind n other inane green ideas was nicked out of the health budgets?
        and maybe that needs pointing out..they tweaked normal spendings on other needs to keep the greentards happy
        wonder if ms boriss wannabe mrs might consider that?
        shes another greta claims she had it but”wasnt tested” why the hell not?

      • …I do not advocate lockdowns.

        The rest of your comment demonstrates that you do, indeed, advocate lockdowns (and as seen elsewhere, very severe ones). Perhaps you meant that you do not prefer lockdowns. I would hope so, if you count yourself amongst those lovers of liberty you mention.

        The first and correct step would have been to test the entire population, isolate all carriers and trace and retest all their contacts, as South Korea has so successfully done.

        I’m sure that’s just clumsily written (fair enough, this is just the comments section of a blog and you’re firing them out) but to be clear, South Korea has not tested its entire population.

        I would suggest that the first and correct step is to assess the overall danger from the disease. It was already clear (from evidence, not models) by the time the UK took its lockdown action that the danger from this disease did not warrant the action taken. Unfortunately, they chose to listen to panic mongers like Neil Ferguson (who is already backtracking like mad).

        • Farr’s Law and models. Hope for a narrow bell curve, fast up and fast down. Viruses first take the most vulnerable, then run out of new easy victims. Finally, the seasons change.

          Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, “Farr’s law” and SIR compartmental difference equation models

          https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042718300101

          Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a century. We recently introduced a single equation model (the incidence decay with exponential adjustment, or IDEA model) that can be used for short-term epidemiological forecasting. In the mid-19th century, Dr. William Farr made the observation that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a bell-shaped curve. He noticed that this time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula (“Farr’s law”) that could be used for epidemic forecasting. We show here that the IDEA model follows Farr’s law, and show that for intuitive assumptions, Farr’s Law can be derived from the IDEA model. Moreover, we show that both mathematical approaches, Farr’s Law and the IDEA model, resemble solutions of a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) compartmental differential-equation model in an asymptotic limit, where the changes of disease transmission respond to control measures, and not only to the depletion of susceptible individuals. This suggests that the concept of the reproduction number was implicitly captured in Farr’s (pre-microbial era) work, and also suggests that control of epidemics, whether via behavior change or intervention, is as integral to the natural history of epidemics as is the dynamics of disease transmission.

      • @Lord Monckton of Brenchley

        “The first and correct step would have been to test the entire population, isolate all carriers and trace and retest all their contacts, as South Korea has so successfully done.”

        But would that not imply that the number of reported cases in South Korea are actually quite close to real number of cases?

        If that would prove real the lethality from SARS-CoV-2 would be around 1.8% in a well equipped health care system.

        Herd immunity by infection is therefore not an option. It would mean 3.6 million deaths for the US in the best case scenario.

        • If you start ontop of it, tracing is relatively easy and yes the source of most infections in South Korea would be known. Remember the earlier you get the cases the better the outcomes so that is also a factor.

          However once it gets away from you it’s impossible that is why Singapore had to go into lockdown yesterday. They will bunker down for a month and then hopefully be able to resume contact tracing. The problem is it only takes a couple of idiots breaking the rules and all your tracing is in tatters.

          • @LdB
            You are completely right about that but getting back into tracing phase one through the lockdown is the only option.

            My point was that Lord Monckton argued in his article that there might be a huge number of not detected cases that would decrease the real lethality from the currently estimated one of 10% in some countries and we could therefore reach herd immunity earlier.

            From the success South Korea has so far I think that might be true for a lot of countries but I am afraid not down to a range of below 1.5%. That is way too high for going in the direction of herd immunity without a vaccine. The death toll would be in the millions.

            Also the hospitalization rate is that high that we would have to stay in lockdown for years to flatten the curve to a rate that the health care system would not be overwhelmed at the peak of the curve.

      • • Monckton of Brenchley
        April 8, 2020 at 3:40 am
        “In response to Mr Nelson, I do not advocate lockdowns.”

        I always appreciate Lord Monckton’s contribution and usually find his arguments persuasive. IMHO this lockdown is downright wrong.
        A lockdown is an “extreme action and extreme actions require extreme proof.” Data supporting the claim that COVID-19 is an extreme virus are mostly based on assumptions and, gasp, computer models. Extreme consequences, E.G deaths, not infections, seem a more appropriate criteria for extreme action. On average, the communicable disease tuberculosis , kills 1,100,000 people every year. What is the threshold in lives per year, for taking extreme action? I would hope that whatever number is chosen is higher than 1,100,000.
        In his April 4th post, Lord Monckton said “The Chinese virus is considerable more infections and more fatal than HIV,” which kills 770,000 every year. While this statement may be accurate, no proof is offered.
        In the US, arguments for a lockdown were based on “flattening the curve,” not saving lives. It is my understanding (misunderstanding?) that, baring a vaccination or other medical interventions, the virus will be around for a long time and sooner or later 60-80% will be infected. Although my crystal ball is cloudy, as of April 8, worldwide, less that 100,000 have died. I think a better argument can be made that substantially less than 1M will die than then that over 1.1M will die. Whatever the number, there will be arguing for years about how effective the lockdown has been vs. other actions.
        The argument “Would it not be better to allow everyone to acquire immunity, and to accept the resulting loss of life,” is a strawman argument. It is not an either/or choice. As South Korea and Sweden have shown, you can still do targeted quarantines, social distancing, testing, and take other remedial action without a lockdown.
        Calls for a lockdown are from those least effected. I doubt those who live paycheck-to-paycheck or customer-to-customer concur that a lockdown is a good tradeoff. In the US the estimates are that up to 20M people will lose their income. Many will lose their home and family, will not be able to afford going to a doctor, will turn to crime or drugs, or commit suicide. Arguable, poverty is the #1 cause of death. The cost to those most effected by the lockdown must be considered in addition to the benefits to those of us who are least effected.
        I will just skip over the “certificates of immunity” as not a serious proposal for a free society.
        I do find this series of posts to be very informative and helpful and I thank Lord Monckton for his work.

      • • Monckton of Brenchley April 8, 2020 at 3:40 am
        “In response to Mr Nelson, I do not advocate lockdowns.”

        I always appreciate Lord Monckton’s contribution and usually find his arguments persuasive. IMHO this lockdown is downright wrong.
        A lockdown is an “extreme action and extreme actions require extreme proof.” Data supporting the claim that COVID-19 is an extreme virus are mostly based on assumptions and, gasp, computer models. Extreme consequences, E.G deaths, not infections, seem a more appropriate criteria for extreme action. On average, the communicable disease tuberculosis , kills 1,100,000 people every year. What is the threshold in lives per year, for taking extreme action? I would hope that whatever number is chosen is higher than 1,100,000.
        In his April 4th post, Lord Monckton said “The Chinese virus is considerable more infections and more fatal than HIV,” which kills 770,000 every year. While arguable that statement may be accurate, I don’t think there is sufficient data to know.
        In the US, arguments for a lockdown were based on “flattening the curve,” not saving lives. It is my understanding (misunderstanding?) that, baring a vaccination or other medical interventions, the virus will be around for a long time and sooner or later 60-80% will be infected. Although my crystal ball is cloudy, as of April 8, worldwide, less that 100,000 have died. I think a better argument can be made that substantially less than 1M will die than then that over 1.1M will die. Whatever the number, there will be arguing for years about how effective the lockdown has been vs. other actions.
        The argument “Would it not be better to allow everyone to acquire immunity, and to accept the resulting loss of life,” is a strawman argument. It is not an either/or choice. As South Korea and Sweden have shown, you can still do targeted quarantines, social distancing, testing, and take other remedial action without a lockdown.
        Calls for a lockdown are from those least effected. I doubt those who live paycheck-to-paycheck or customer-to-customer concur that a lockdown is a good tradeoff. In the US the estimates are that up to 20M people will lose their income. Many will lose their home and family, will not be able to afford going to a doctor, will turn to crime or drugs, or commit suicide. Arguable, poverty is the #1 cause of death. The cost to those most effected by the lockdown must be considered in addition to the benefits to those of us who are least effected.
        I will just skip over the “certificates of immunity” as not a serious proposal for a free society.
        While I disagree that a lockdown is appropriate, I do find this series of posts to be very informative and helpful and I thank Lord Monckton for his work.

      • “The first and correct step would have been to test the entire population”

        What kind of test?

    • No it does not have a low mortality rate. You cannot add in current cases. At the moment (17:30 BST 08/04) there are 316,482 recovered and 86,256 deaths this means that the total number of people who have come through this is 402,738. The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of completed cases which is 86,256 / 402,738 which is 21.4% The people curently suffering from this disease cannot be added in as there is no way of knowing whether they will live or die.

    • @ charles nelson: I have also asked this, not the good lord, but half a dozen existing persons. The only answer that made some sense to me, was: “Because THIS virus is much more contagious than common, and other, infections”.
      Now, my counterquestion would be: …Allright but even then, taking the well-known precautions and following the same proven procedures, would not the current coronavirus have followed more or less the same pattern, that is a rising, flattening and downward-pointing curve, just like the other ones?
      And at the “end” of the story, let’s remember to compare the number of real victims [disregarding the ones with underlying illnesses] to the population, to the number of total death (how do we dump fake information??)…

      This almost total lockdown seems to me as menacing and counterproductive [not only economically!] as the New Green Deal. I would suggest: Ladies and gentlemen at all the tables: Shuffle and deal again!

      Regards.-

  4. Boris Johnson has been fighting the fever too long. On day 6, you should be given corticosteroids to stop your inflammation.

    • “The initial results are excellent so that the admissions in the intensive care unit have been reduced, with shortened hospital stays and radiological and clinical responses that I would dare to define as spectacular. We believe that COVID therapy for pneumonia is corticosteroid therapy at the onset of pneumonia at the stage that we consider mild, particularly in febrile patients from the first week and with analytical abnormalities. Initiating anti-inflammatory therapy prior to the development of severe pneumonia, covering the period of time in which the patient can worsen corticosteroid therapy”

      “The OMS made a contraindicated mistake in the use of corticosteroids in patients with COVID infection 19. In this way, this therapy is postponed until a very serious situation in which the therapy is much less effective. Soon we will have data on all this and we will disseminate it but we will disseminate this information inviting you to try this treatment on the patients that I anticipate. Infection Does Not Kill Them Kills The Inflammatory Reaction To Macrophage Activated Infection”

      ” What we propose and are carrying out with the excellent initial results, ” he continues, “ is to start corticotherapy on the sixth day of the onset of symptoms, keeping it until day 12 so that this inflammatory phase is prevented, that is, the patient who is developing Small infiltrates in chest radiography are at risk of evolving into a distress without our being able to predict which patients will have this evolution or which patients will evolve favorably.
      https://www.elperiodicodeaqui.com/epda-noticias/el-hospital-doctor-peset-de-valencia-aplica–con-mucho-exito–en-pacientes-con-coronavirus-una-terapia-antiinflamatoria-con-corticoides/207638

    • chinese docs tried that, didnt seem to work.
      this bugs boot in the butt to the immune system causing cytokine storm is a worry for some.
      knowing who the some is?
      you wouldnt want to add cortisone to that.
      Boris has that odd gene that gives him that “glass hair” might be a factor too.

      • You’re wrong. As a result of a cytokine storm, you are killed by your own lymphocytes, not a virus. You need to suppress your immune system, not strengthen it. Of course, this is a very individual matter.

  5. “The initial results are excellent so that the admissions in the intensive care unit have been reduced, with shortened hospital stays and radiological and clinical responses that I would dare to define as spectacular. We believe that COVID therapy for pneumonia is corticosteroid therapy at the onset of pneumonia at the stage that we consider mild, particularly in febrile patients from the first week and with analytical abnormalities. Initiating anti-inflammatory therapy prior to the development of severe pneumonia, covering the period of time in which the patient can worsen corticosteroid therapy”

    “The OMS made a contraindicated mistake in the use of corticosteroids in patients with COVID infection 19. In this way, this therapy is postponed until a very serious situation in which the therapy is much less effective. Soon we will have data on all this and we will disseminate it but we will disseminate this information inviting you to try this treatment on the patients that I anticipate. Infection Does Not Kill Them Kills The Inflammatory Reaction To Macrophage Activated Infection”

    ” What we propose and are carrying out with the excellent initial results, ” he continues, “ is to start corticotherapy on the sixth day of the onset of symptoms, keeping it until day 12 so that this inflammatory phase is prevented, that is, the patient who is developing Small infiltrates in chest radiography are at risk of evolving into a distress without our being able to predict which patients will have this evolution or which patients will evolve favorably.
    https://www.elperiodicodeaqui.com/epda-noticias/el-hospital-doctor-peset-de-valencia-aplica–con-mucho-exito–en-pacientes-con-coronavirus-una-terapia-antiinflamatoria-con-corticoides/207638

  6. “Very sadly, on current data, he is more likely to die than not”. ++
    Not a statement in good taste..and more so in current circumstances.. Let us wish him recovery.. After all many have.

    “the death rate in closed cases – those confirmed cases who have either recovered or died – is some 27%”….itself negates “more likely to die than not” assertion!!!!

    “I wish him a speedy and complete recovery”… This statement should have come in the first place.

    And finally, if you mean we are all certain to die..so be it..

    Satyendra Bhandari

  7. A general principle of passive antibody therapy is that it is more effective when used for prophylaxis than for treatment of disease. When used for therapy, antibody is most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms. The reason for temporal variation in efficacy is not well understood but could reflect that passive antibody works by neutralizing the initial inoculum, which is likely to be much smaller than that of established disease (5). Another explanation is that antibody works by modifying the inflammatory response, which is also more easily achieved during the initial immune response, a stage that may be asymptomatic (6). As an example, passive antibody therapy for pneumococcal pneumonia was most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms, and there was no benefit if antibody administration was delayed past the third day of disease (7).
    https://www.jci.org/articles/view/138003

  8. Re: “Testing, testing, testing.”

    Does anybody know which test(s?) South Korea are using and how are/were they able to manufacture, distribute and deploy it so rapidly and so widely?

    • The only thing I read in this is that South Korea is very technologically advanced because their economy is geared towards manufacturing. Also read they were more prepared because initial SARS caused them problems years ago so they got ready.

      At the Trump press conference last night Dr Birx said USA could test another 100k per day using existing testing machines that are all over the country. Apparently many are not being used by the labs that have them. She asked all labs to see if the have Abbott 2000 machine and to use it for testing. Unfortunately I don’t see media pushing this message out. Perhaps Abbott can locate the machines using their customer is information and technical people can be sent out to get machine configured for the test.

    • For testing you need three things:

      – machines
      – reagents
      – staff

      South Korea has build up huge capacities of each of that. You can design test kits that only lack the “probe” you need for the specific virus but this can be produced in sufficient numbers in days after you designed it and proved its specificity and validity if you have the machines, reagents and staff ready for that as well. That I know they did.

      Commercial test kits are normally not designed to have a shelf live of more than 2 years but I am sure that it would be possible to design one that can be stored in the gas phase of liquid nitrogen nearly limitless. I don’t know if that is what South Korea did or if they just stock up new kits on a regular basis and discard the outdated.

  9. Did they put him on hydro chloroquine and zinc supplement right away ? It often is too late if people wait, from what I have read best to do it very early, right after positive test or even before.

    Didier Raoult claims 99.3 pct success rate treating 1000 patients. Not sure what state of each patient was when they were put in it.

    https://techstartups.com/2020/04/06/french-researcher-dr-didier-raoult-has-now-treated-1000-coronavirus-patient-with-99-3-success-rate/

    • A radio 4 article last night tried to look into the pros and cons of treatments for covid19, the interview /article was heavily loaded in a negative sense , starting with the trump announcement praising the quinine based drugs, buying up a large amount of the drugs for treatment, the article concentrated on unknown side effects, a shortage of the drug,which is used to treat lupus, and never once refering to patients who had recovered due to the use of the drug. The article did refer to the French trials but emphasised the trial was with a very few patients, were as the above article refers to a thousand patients,

      The radio 4 article mentioned trials in the UK without mentioning which drugs were being trialled and how many patients were involved. They said at best we were weeks away from a interim results.

      The whole article to me ,came across as a propaganda exercise designed to put off any hope in these drugs,
      In the short term, if we are to believe the British take, any drugs approved through this very long trial,will have passed the peak of the virus and will not help in the treatment of the virus in the current pandemic.

      • Unfortunately it seems they are more concerned with keeping their egos alive than keeping patients alive.

      • I’ve been told that no one taking chloroquine for lupus has been recorded with COVID-19. It’s not supposed to prevent the disease, but might keep symptoms mild enough to escape diagnosis.

        The there’s Roy’s observations on malarial countries. Anecdotal, granted. But if I couldn’t breathe and we’re turning blue, I’d volunteer to be a guinea pig.

        • Interesting John, I did not know that lupus sufferers had not got the virus, which leads me to a point I missed out in my first post, the side effects relative to dose for hydroquine have been know about for years and doses regulated to suit. I think theres a good argument to give HQ when the virus first shows signs, particularly to vulnerable groups, like you I would rather try it,than dying gasping for air.

          • Some might have gotten the virus, but haven’t developed the disease, which would be the best test.

          • All that you really know is that there is a rumor to the effect that people with lupus do not get the virus.
            That sounds to me like a wild exaggeration that has taken on a life of it’s own and is for some reason being accepted as factual.

            Look, John said he “was told”
            Then B d Clark said “I did not know…”
            So at this point it appears to have transmogrified into a fact by halfway through the first sentence from John.
            But no one has ever shown such a result.
            Do you really think this is a fact?
            Is it even logical?
            Why is this not a subject of intense study?
            A whole subset of people completely and 100% immune?
            And why only lupus?
            Lot’s of other people with autoimmune conditions exist, and some are more intense, like rheumatoid arthritis.
            But there is a long list of such conditions.
            And besides…people with a disease like lupus are not all the same…some have a mild case, some have a severe manifestation of it.
            Some people have long remissions, and for some it is ongoing and continuous.
            For others it is a steadily progressive condition getting worse and requiring ever stronger interventions.
            The people that get relief from chloroquine are a minority of people with the condition.
            Some are not helped by it…they take much stronger stuff.
            Are they immune too?
            Or only the ones that take hyroxychloroquine?
            And more people with RA take it, that is for sure, because RA is a far more common condition.

            In fact, I am sure this is not true.
            There may be some kernel at the root of the rumor.
            Has anyone looked for the origin of the report and if there is anything to it?
            I have seen this morph over a few weeks to this blanket “Lupus patients are immune to COVID-19” nonsense.

          • Yet you set yourself up as a know all in medical terms , but you dont give us the benefit of your wisdom ,that figures, for your information ,I have a elderly relative a life long suffer of lupus ,who takes Cholroquine, no signs of the virus , I would take John’s word over yours anyday.

        • Do you guys also use the “I’ve been told” standard for other branches of science, or only when actual lives are at stake, and the drugs in question highly toxic, and the people already sick?
          I am really curious how you compartmentalize what you would never find acceptable in one area as fine and dandy in another?

      • Vladimir Zelenko, has perhaps some of the best information from now over 900 patients he’s treated. The ionophore action of hydroxychloroquine with Zn, makes sense to me. I did not realize the mechanism, but have taken supplements for a long time with quercetin (a known Zn ionophore) and Zn, and my case of Covid 19 lasted 5 days. 5 days! It hit hard and fast… and I have always had chronic bronchitis when I get sick. I also take green tea extracts with bromelain and other anti inflammatory supplements… lots of them.

        As a process control engineer, I examine the symptoms and figured out that it was my lungs being swollen that caused the disgusting rumbling sounds during breathing. Even with a rescue inhaler. No sinus or throat issues with Covid 19 for me. No secondary infection.

        That said, there is no reason whatsoever that hydroxychloroquine should not be used.

        If it were used, and we had enough of a supply of this cheap substance, we’d all be in better shape with the outcomes. It’s less costly than the supplements I take. However, the supplements have pretty much only positive affects in cardiovascular and other areas of health. So good insurance as I am in my mid 50’s as a write this!

    • The problem with the Raoult study is it is mainly early pre-ICU patients only 20 patients went into ICU and then 7 died. What you need to do a proper analysis is the rate of infections ending in ICU rate of a normal sample of 1000 people in his study area.

      The current overall survival rate for France is 98.2% so his rate is better than the average but remember there will be better and worse areas based on populations with underlying health issues.

      So encouraging but really needs a lot more data and better analysis.

  10. Could someone get Boris a dose of hydroxychloroquine and zinc or at least have a bit of ozone at around .02ppm in his room. It would be great to see it work, bypassing the pressure for a vaccine to be forced on the People.

  11. Thank you Lord Christopher, it appears that Boris is not The only one working 15 hours a day , please don’t over do it. We need your wisdom.

  12. I have found that, regardless of a person’s previous positions on civil liberties, their personal risk factors determine whether they favour police state restrictions, or something slightly less. [Almost nobody favours lifting all restrictions.]

  13. Chloroquine acts like steroids by inhibiting the inflammatory process caused by the body’s inappropriate response (in the case of Sars-Cov-2 it is a cytokine storm).
    Chloroquine phosphate is used occasionally to decrease the symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis and to treat systemic and discoid lupus erythematosus, scleroderma, pemphigus, lichen planus, polymyositis, sarcoidosis, and porphyria cutanea tarda. Talk to your doctor about the possible risks of using this drug for your condition.

    • No, it works by changing the pH so the Virus cant enter the cell :
      Excellent and very details explanation of how HCQ works :

        • The inflammatory process seems to be responsible for death only in a minor fraction of patients mainly of younger age.

      • Just sad that that’s not the mechanism SARS-CoV-2 enters the cell from all we know so far.

        It’s true other viruses do it that way but still (hydroxy-)chloroquine never proofed really effective against any virus in humans.

        It worked perfectly fine in cell culture in vitro models though but that is not uncommon, in fact, that is the usual case with drug candidates. Otherwise we would have a lot more treatments or cures for many diseases.

      • @ggm
        Consider this video a response to the video you posted.
        “Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update 32 with pulmonologist & critical care specialist Roger Seheult, MD of https://www.MedCram.com PLEASE NOTE: This video was recorded on March 6, 2020. Our more recent COVID-19 updates can be accessed free at our website”

        https://youtu.be/Eeh054-Hx1U

        This video explains the biochemistry of the zinc ionophore. It is this property that is the mechanism through which chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine work. There are other zinc ionophores … a couple of them are OTC.

      • Moderator. My posts do not seem to go through. I’ll try again.
        How a zinc ionophore stops SARS-CoC-2.
        YouTube video code Eeh054-Hx1U
        h t t p s : / / y o u t u . b e / Eeh054-Hx1U

      • That is very interesting. Curious if those with low pH are mare susceptible to colds, flu, pneumonia, herpes, et cetera. Treating with Cesium Chloride in the diet can raise pH.

  14. Mmm – most of the time I enjoy your posts here Christopher, but:

    “Very sadly, on current data, he is more likely to die than not. ”

    Unless someone has been lying (always possible), Boris has not yet been on mechanical ventilation. The Intensive Care National Audit Research Centre’s stats suggest that those that are not placed on mechanical ventilation (i.e. because it’s not required) within the first 24 hours of hospitalisation have around a 70% chance of surviving, so more likely to survive than not if we’re being told the truth.

    Also, as far as social distancing is concerned, the UK guidance of 2m is double the WHO guidance.

  15. I do not understand why Boris Johnson is still in ITU if he is only requiring oxygen and not a ventilator. A physician on the radio this morning said that he needed oxygen therapy and was not well enough to be on a ward, but patients on oxygen, even high flow, is not unusual on respiratory wards or other wards.
    Why hasn’t he been stepped down to a high dependency unit (HDU) rather than taking up an ITU bed? ITU has a nurse/patient ratio of 1:1, HDU is 1:2 or 1:4, General wards should be about 1:6 or 1:8.
    There’s something that is being held back

    • Well, he is the Prime Minister and is probably a precautionary measure to ensure that he can be dealt with in ICU if his conditions worsen. I have no problem with the hospital making special efforts to ensure the PM has the highest and quickest access to ICU assistance within seconds to a minutes notice. That is prudent to ensure the highest elected leader of the land has a higher level of care and attention than me. We should expect that and hopefully he has the best care in the entire Kingdom.

      What concerns me is how this disease attacks vulnerabilities that the host may already have. It appears to be a disease of opportunity to attack ones own weakness. I suppose many diseases do this to, as the autoimmune function of our body is diminished. Or how it can aggressively attack the heart muscle, and what is the mechanism for doing so. Why the heart? If one is already suffering any kind of heart disease or cardiovascular deficiencies, then when the lungs are compromised and oxygen levels are low, then one can die from heart failure sooner than the pneumonia causes pre-mature loss of life. We really need to understand how this disease operates, and why different people have different symptoms and morbidity. Much to learn and know, and we are doing the best we can with what we got dealt to us by WHO and China. If not for that bungling, probably much of this could have be lessened before it even got started.

      If there is a lesson in this, then it is we would be prudent to invest heavily in being basically prepared for the next pandemic. There will surely be more pandemics to come, and this one may mutate and be more serious medically speaking next season. Just like when the 1918-1919 Spanish flu came back with a vengeance the following season. Being prepared is our best defence, both in knowledge and kit.

      • The virus uses the ACE2 sites in the lungs apparently, use of ACE inhibitors such as lisinopril or the ACE 2 antagonist such as Losartan may exacerbate the condition, although the evidence is scant for the former.
        ACE inhibitors are first line for hypertension when lifestyle changes have failed.
        For certain ethnic gropus Losartan is the recommended first line.
        Losartan is also used to slow kidney damage in people with diabetes.

        • I believe that Losartan and the sartans in general are Angiotensin II receptor blockers, not ACE inhibitors. People who are dosed chronically with enzyme or receptor blockers tend to upregulate the receptors as the body tries to compensate. This for instance is the reason for heroin and nicotine withdrawal symptoms – when the block is removed, the system is overactive. Early on, one of the indicators of poor prognosis suggested by Chinese doctors was high blood pressure, however it may be that it is medicated high blood pressure that is involved. Higher expression of ACE2 would presumably increase the virus on-rate, hence the speed of propogation. Anecdotally, blood pressure medication is more common in the middle-aged and elderly, especially men, all groups with apparently with poorer prognosis.

        • Ace inhibitors have not been shown to be dangerous for people who get this virus.
          And the virus is known to have at least two and more likely three proven receptors by which it can gain entry.
          No one really knows…it is not like putting cameras around your house to see how a burglar got in.
          What is know is that viruses are hard to thwart, but our body and individual cells have numerous ways to defend against virus infection, but the viruses have even more numerous ways to get around those defenses.

          On the subject of ACE inhibitors and pneumonia…a huge number of studies indicates that people who take an ACE inhibitor have about a 34% reduced risk of ever getting pneumonia from any cause:
          “The best evidence available points towards a putative protective role of ACE inhibitors but not ARBs in risk of pneumonia. Patient populations that may benefit most are those with previous stroke and Asian patients. ACE inhibitors were also associated with a decrease in pneumonia related mortality…”

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3394697/

  16. Covid-19 disease has a very individual course. After 5 days, antibodies should form. If the fever persists, steroid treatment should be initiated because inflammation can develop very quickly, even from hour to hour. There is no effective medicine for an unconscious person under a respirator.

  17. “… he has never been ill enough to be admitted to hospital before…”

    What? The UK’s PM wasn’t “ill enough” to be admitted to an NHS hospital (or any hospital)? I did notice in one of the live broadcasts that in the background was a hospital that had a prominent sign indicating it was an NHS facility, but it may have been a prop. Regardless, was he not being attended by his/a physician already? Or is this “not ill enough” business some whacky British/NHS chest-thumping proof that everyone – including the PM – is treated the same by the NHS?

    • Never mind. On re-reading, it dawned on me that the meaning of the sentence is that Boris has been so healthy in the past that he has never needed to be admitted to a hospital before.

    • “I did notice in one of the live broadcasts that in the background was a hospital that had a prominent sign indicating it was an NHS facility, but it may have been a prop. ”

      Hi Nick
      I can assure you that St Thomas’ hospital is indeed the NHS hospital, I was an out patient there (since it was nearest hospital to my place of work) for a minor ailment some 15 years ago, it is one of the best in London but facilities there were even then a bit outdated.. The first UK’s CV-19 patient was hospitalised there until his recovery.

  18. Thanks to Lord Monckton for another interesting post.

    For the possible benefit of anyone who, like me, currently has a chest infection (whether Covid-19 or otherwise!), I found this breathing technique described by a UK NHS ward doctor to be most helpful (as has JK Rowling, among others more noteworthy than myself):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=222&v=HwLzAdriec0&feature=emb_logo

    It is used by physios helping patients with respiratory conditions in ICU. May prove useful for some here during these strange times.

    TFN

  19. … the National Health Service has been creakily revising its previous catastrophic guidelines for diabetes patients that had recommended patients to reduce their fat intake and keep their cholesterol low.

    Until the mid 1970s people were uniformly thin. The obesity epidemic has happened within the lifetimes of many of the denizens of WUWT. It is a result of bad science, so bad in fact that it rivals Dr. Mann’s (admitted by him*) fraudulent hockey stick.

    What we see clearly is that science can be bought. When money and prestige are at stake, scientists are just as venal as anybody else. link and link

    The alarmists are quick to impugn the reputation of skeptics like Fred Singer while, at the same time, insisting that their scientists are godlike in their honesty and professionalism. Bunk! Skeptics are punished to the maximum extent that the alarmists can exert. Alarmist scientists are richly rewarded. You tell me who is more likely to be honest in that context. A novice in a nunnery should be able to work out the correct answer.

    *adverse inference

  20. I too wish Boris Johnson well.

    Anyway, there’s some good news. In eight major European countries – Spain, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, Norway – new cases per day have peaked inside the last 3 weeks, and are now on the way downward. I worked out how fast the cases were dropping, and concluded that in the cases of Spain and Italy at least, the new case count is now (as of yesterday) behaving as if it has a half-life of about 30 days.

    In Austria, the new cases per day (smoothed by averaging over 7 days) are now at less than half their peak number, which was around 25th March. No wonder the Austrians are talking about starting to relax their lockdown! The Netherlands seems to be close to peaking, too. Only four – UK, Sweden, Ireland and Denmark – are still to peak. I’m keeping tabs of all this in an Excel spreadsheet, which I plan to update daily.

    • May depend on data compilation and source.
      If you look at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html and login there, you will find both Australia and Sweden possibly near the top on the logarithmic scale, but not over the top.
      Sorry, not sure I am allowed to pass on the login to arcgis, I got in email from a well contributor here.

  21. A doctor from a hospital in Moscow tells this story:

    (googletrans)

    The other day we examined a woman of about 50-60 years old with Covid-19 without severe concomitant pathology, she is wearing an oxygen mask, but she does not particularly complain: “Yes, it’s hard to breathe, but nothing, it’s tolerable.” Talking. X-ray – slight pneumonia, not critical.
    Indications for artificial ventilation no. But literally before our eyes, these indications are changing, and the patient seems to be not complaining much either. We are taking her to CT.

    We look at the results of tomography – but there are no lungs! To dust!

    And now I understand why the COVIDs who have pneumonia die one by one! They are talking to you, but they no longer have lungs! And they are all like that! And it’s so scary! The woman was immediately transferred to mechanical ventilation; I don’t know if she will survive.

    ———

    This explains the pictures of dead on the streets in China, Iran and Italy.
    You never mention you do not get oxygen. You simply collapse at once.

  22. In countries where there are (or have been) mandatory vaccinations against tuberculosis, a slower increase in the incidence of Covid-19 is observed. Probably the immune system has been “rehearsed” somehow.

  23. I’m saying some prayers for Boris and for all the other innocent people who have been afflicted with this disease. It’s a terrible situation.

    We’ll get it all straightened out eventually.

    All nations need to up their testing game. We need to have the whole picture of the Wuhan virus and mass testing will give it to us.

    Good luck to everyone.

  24. The initial slow response in countries such as the UK, the USA, and Sweden now looks increasingly poorly judged. As leaders scramble to acquire diagnostic tests, personal protective equipment, and ventilators for overwhelmed hospitals, there is a growing sense of anger. The patchwork of harmful initial reactions from many leaders, from denial and misplaced optimism, to passive acceptance of large-scale deaths, was justified by words such as unprecedented. But this belies the damage wrought by SARS, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Ebola virus, Zika virus, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and a widespread acceptance among scientists that a pandemic would one day occur. Hong Kong and South Korea were tested by these previous emerging infections, leaving them better able to scale up testing and contact tracing.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30686-3/fulltext

    • A Lancet editorial? Pure cant. This was Richard Horton’s twitter feed on January 24. He is editor of the Lancet: –

      “A call for caution please. Media are escalating anxiety by talking of a “killer virus” + “growing fears”. In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language.”

      Pot meet kettle.

  25. Milord,

    At the Porton Down facility in England, detailed serological research on thousands of blood samples from randomly-chosen members of the public is now being conducted, and will be ramped up in coming weeks, to reveal the extent of the population immunity.

    Do they actually have reliable test to determine so? What I’ve heard it’s matter of month or so just to tune such test to detect appropriate antibodies. Only after then large-scale testing can kick off.

  26. The Case Fatality Rate is completely useless in this epidemic. Because of the Testing Bottleneck, only those sick enough for hospitalization are getting tested and therefore the only ones getting counted. The 400,000 cases in a country of 330 million 4 months “in” does not describe an epidemic. Flu that spreads more slowly than the Corona (according to all reports) routinely reaches 10 to 30 million cases by mid season.

    We desperately need to know the INFECTION FATALITY RATE. To get that number, we need the Serum Antibody Tests…and the FDA has unnecessarily been withholding EUA (emergency approval) until a 95% accuracy is proven. That’s fine for a final emergency product, but we had 90% accurate tests way back in February that could have been (AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN) used forensically…to get a decent number of the Infection Rate.

    You cannot manage an epidemic without knowing how many have had the damn infection. That number and the fatality number are the 2 most important numbers…AND WE STILL DON’T HAVE ONE OF THOSE NUMBERS. Maddening.

    And the CDC is still not scrambling to get that most important number. Why is that?

    • Fauci is the poster boy for how government bureaucracy manages anything. It kind of reminds me of the blitzkreig German invasion of France in WWII. The French thought they had a perfect defense and 6 weeks later the Germans were marching down the Champs-Élysées. The French just couldn’t think outside the box.

        • It didn’t work because the Germans went around it. France left the Ardennes virtually undefended, wrongly thinking the forested region “untankable”. Had they even put tank traps and antitank guns in it, far from recreating the mighty fortresses of the Maginot Line, the outcome could have been different.

          But France made another mistake by deploying its own armor in “penny packets” as infantry support weapons, rather than concentrating them in armored divisions and corps, as did the Germans. For the French, large armored formations would have served as counterattack forcess, with which to cut off attacking German spearheads.

          De Gaulle, CO of a last-minute paper division, tried to do this, scraping together a scratch brigade of three light and one heavy tank battalions, but his force was too little, too late. While too weak to stop, let alone cut off, the left flank of the German armored offensive, this inadequate counterattack slowed down the enemy advance a bit.

          Later, the British also attempted with an ad hoc battle group to attack into the right flank of the advancing German armored columns, and delayed them long enough for the Dunkirk beachhead to stiffen its defenses.

        • But the 1940 French 25mm antitank gun was also inadequate. However, at short range in the woods, against the lightest of German tanks, it was better than nothing.

          The British 40mm ATG was better, but in short supply, so the BEF was largely armed with the French 25mm “door knocker”.

          The Belgian 47mm was a good ATG by 1940 standards, but again, too few were fielded, although at ~750, enough for first-line units. Reserves had to make do with virtually useless AT rifles.

  27. • Monckton of Brenchley
    April 8, 2020 at 3:40 am
    “In response to Mr Nelson, I do not advocate lockdowns.”

    I always appreciate Lord Monckton’s contribution and usually find his arguments persuasive. IMHO this lockdown is downright wrong.

    A lockdown is an “extreme action and extreme actions require extreme proof.” Data supporting the claim that COVID-19 is an extreme virus are mostly based on assumptions and, gasp, computer models. Extreme consequences, E.G deaths, not infections, seem a more appropriate criteria for extreme action. On average, the communicable disease tuberculosis , kills 1,100,000 people every year. What is the threshold in lives per year, for taking extreme action? I would hope that whatever number is chosen is higher than 1,100,000.

    In his April 4th post, Lord Monckton said “The Chinese virus is considerable more infections and more fatal than HIV,” which kills 770,000 every year. While this statement may be accurate, no proof is offered.

    Arguments for a lockdown were based on “flattening the curve,” not saving lives. It is my understanding (misunderstanding?) that, baring a vaccination or other medical interventions, the virus will be around for a long time and sooner or later 60-80% will be infected. Although my crystal ball is cloudy, as of April 8, worldwide, less that 100,000 have died. I think a better argument can be made that substantially less than 1M will die than then that over 1.1M will die. Whatever the number, there will be arguing for years about how effective the lockdown has been vs. other actions.

    The argument “Would it not be better to allow everyone to acquire immunity, and to accept the resulting loss of life,” is a strawman argument. It is not an either/or choice. As South Korea and Sweden have shown, you can still do targeted quarantines, social distancing, testing, and take other remedial action without a lockdown.

    Calls for a lockdown are from those least effected. I doubt those who live paycheck-to-paycheck or customer-to-customer concur that a lockdown is a good tradeoff. In the US the estimates are that up to 20M people will lose their income. Many will lose their home and family, will not be able to afford going to a doctor, will turn to crime or drugs, or commit suicide. Arguable, poverty is the #1 cause of death. The cost to those most effected by the lockdown must be considered in addition to the benefits to those of us who are least effected.

    I will just skip over the “certificates of immunity” as not a serious proposal for a free society.
    I do find this series of posts to be very informative and helpful and I thank Lord Monckton for his work.

  28. ‘Very sadly, on current data, he is more likely to die than not. ‘

    Hmm.

    that’s not the story I’m being sold… er, told… by UK govt and media.

  29. Given these figures, it would simply not have been responsible for governments to allow unrestricted transmission of the virus. That was why lockdowns were necessary. Yes, Sweden and some other countries took the risk of not introducing lockdowns, and Sweden, as the graph shows, has kept its compound daily case growth rate quite low with partial restrictions, just as South Korea has.

    So lockdowns were necessary – but somehow Sweden, with no lockdown – just very light restrictions (and no super-snooper-test-imprison South Korea policy) has kept its curve low. Remarkable.

    Meanwhile, the Chinese dominated World Health Organisation agrees with Monckton of Brenchley that lockdowns must be maintained. What are lockdowns definitely doing? They’re hosing our Western economies down the toilet. Which ghastly, power hungry communist dictatorship beginning with Ch strategically benefits by an exhausted and depleted West?

    End the lockdowns now!

  30. Christopher
    You said, “… when Mr Trump declared a national emergency, the 67100 confirmed cases that day would have become billions by the end of April, …” No. Epidemics are self limiting as potential hosts either die or acquire immunity. Your graph shows declines that you attribute to the lock downs, but even Sweden (and Norway) show declines in the infection rate. You of all people should understand that correlation does not establish causation. Occam’s Razor suggests that the graph you present is best explained by a natural course of events, particularly when Sweden is behaving similarly to the countries that have locked down. It would seem that there are factors at play besides lock downs that need to be identified and explained. If you want to convince your readers that lock downs work and are necessary, then you need to explain the outliers with hard data and not speculation about resistance to colds and flu in high latitude countries.

    • Maximum number of US cases about 330 million, so billions would mean each person infected more than six times on average.

      • “Polytechnique” (or “X”) is the most prestigious French institution for making bright engineers. We say in France “il ne faut pas sortir de Polytechnique pour comprendre que …” which means “you don’t have to be super talented to understand that …”. “Polytechnicien” is codename for really super-bright.

        One Polytechnicien wrote that the probability of a major nuclear accident in the EU is greater than 100%:

        “Par Bernard LAPONCHE, hysicien nucléaire, expert en politiques de l’énergie et Benjamin Dessus, Ingénieur et économiste, président de Global Chance — 3 juin 2011 à 00:00”

        (hysicien is not a word BTW)

        https://www.liberation.fr/france/2011/06/03/accident-nucleaire-une-certitude-statistique_740208

      • John
        Nice catch. That is one reason that even the worst epidemics flatten out. The pathogen runs out of hosts.

    • Thank you Clyde, quite simply and clearly put. CofB knows his argument is BS but thinks the surfs are too stupid to realise.

      Not only does correlation not imply causation , he does not even have a correlation ! Just saying some metric is lower a the end than the beginning does NOT establish a correlation. Artic sea ice is also lower than it was when Trump made his announcement , are we to conclude that is “correlation” too?

      To show correlation you need look at all the data and detect a change which happened at the right time and look at the magnitude of the change in relation to other variability with some measure of statistical significance.

      So do we see a change at the right time?

      https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-fit-france.png

      NO. The slowing effect of the French confinement was ZERO POINT ZERO.

      That is why Monckton refused to comment on all these graphs.

  31. regards death rate, this is the key phrase -“we know that those who die today will have contracted the infection about three weeks previously, but we also know that the total number of reported cases three weeks ago was far less than the number of deaths reported today.”

    but what if the length of the disease for those that die (after they report symptoms) is 2 weeks, not 3? then the death rate is around 30%. So, how do we “know” it is 3 weeks? any data?

  32. Dear Lord M
    Thanks for the informative update. Indeed, there is no cure as yet and all we can do now is praying that a medicine /vaccine will be found soon. In South Africa we are also in complete lock down. I cannot even take my dogs for a hike. Ridiculous, I think, too.
    I am so glad to hear that you are up and healthy again. I really was worried about your health some time ago. And I prayed that would be OK again.

    Somewhat OT here, – maybe it will be OnT again when this stupid virus has been killed-
    as a hobbyist, I have done an investigation into the CO2 warming thing, looking at it from a completely different angle, here
    https://1drv.ms/w/s!At1HSpspVHO9pwx0EPc_q0yoFNKR?e=kE8DTl

    I know you are pretty much the big expert on this…. If ever you have some time or do get some time, would you perhaps have a look at it, and let me know what you think of it.

    I would very much appreciate any comment you can make.

    You can click on my name for contact details.

    Many thanks!

  33. We have to be careful assuming lock-down is effective.
    Why, because of the suffering it will cost, in particular in countries with low GDP and/or a large proportion of people living from hand to mouth. India comes to mind.

    Do we know if lock-down is effective?
    I don’t think so. Out of “State Of Fear” (ISBN-13: 978-0061015731) I strongly believe many of us fail to read the current trend objectively. Considering the long term damage the lock-down undoubtedly will cause, the slight differens we see between countries, with same style culture, with and without lock-down, it is difficult to defend lock-down.
    You may argue that the virus has not spread very much yet – I doubt that too. At a hospital in Sweden they tested 100% of the staff:
    50% tested positive.
    50% of the positives had no symptoms.
    0% of the positives were severely ill.
    Granted, the hospital staff is probably in a way better medical condition than the average population, thus not as sensitive to the virus. But what I find interesting is that 50 % of the hospital staff have the virus, despite these people have long educations touching virus transmission.

    Even the most isolated of places, like the prison in UK where Julian Assange is currently held, one prisoner has died and many have contracted the virus. So how beneficial is a lock-down?

    I was hesitating writing this comment, as I know it goes against the view of Christopher Monckton, but be ware Monckton I still admire most of your viewpoints, also within this subject 🙂

    • Can you please source the data about the hospital in Sweden having 50% positive tests of staff. If it is true, it is incredibly important. It means that those healthworkers have shown a susceptibility which appears to be 2.5 times any other sample population so far.

      • It was announced in Swedish national radio.
        I just spoke in the phone with the friend who told me.
        It would be the hospital in Linköbing.
        I will see if I later tonight can dig up announcement in written form.
        The problem with me is that I don’t listen much to TV and Radio.

    • … as I know it goes against the view of Christopher Monckton

      It would be foolish to silence yourself for fear of challenging the opinions of someone else.

      The information you provide is very pertinent and may explain why it is so hard to find any direct evidence of an effect of these draconian measures in the data. If the virus is already that widely spread confinement will achieve absolutely nothing.

      Here are case numbers in Italy. Please can someone show me where the gamechanging restrictions came into effect?
      https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-growth-italy-2.png

      I have already challenged CofB five times to point out where the effect of the measures he so firmly promotes can be seen and five times he has silently ignored the request.

      I wonder why ?

  34. Christopher
    Thanks for the informative update. Indeed, there is no cure as yet and all we can do now is praying that a medicine /vaccine will be found soon. In South Africa we are also in complete lock down. I cannot even take my dogs for a hike. Ridiculous, I think, too.
    I am so glad to hear that you are up and healthy again. I really was worried about your health some time ago. And I prayed that would be OK again.

    Somewhat OT here, – maybe it will be OnT again when this stupid virus has been killed-
    as a hobbyist, I have done an investigation into the CO2 warming thing, looking at it from a completely different angle, here
    https://1drv.ms/w/s!At1HSpspVHO9pwx0EPc_q0yoFNKR?e=kE8DTl

    I know you are pretty much the big expert on this…. If ever you have some time or do get some time, would you perhaps have a look at it, and let me know what you think of it.

    I would very much appreciate any comment you can make.

    You can click on my name for contact details.

    Many thanks!

  35. Related to some of S Korea’s measures highlighted by Mr. Mosher to track contacts, I received this email from my niece in Oregon (forwarded to me by my sister this morning):

    “We just wanted to share the good news and let you see what the news is reporting… [her husband] and his team’s long work days and short nights are paying off and more importantly helping with the unprecedented covid-19 issues. What they’re doing really is helping save lives! Please excuse [husband] for some time to come as they work extremely long hours (14-22 hours a day!) to help fight the good fight! Thank you all for your prayers, know you are in ours too!”

    This message was followed by 8 different news links related to India’s first automated “COVID-19 Monitoring System App” for contact-tracing CV19 cases in that country. My niece’s husband has an IT R&D background & has worked with IBM and others in Research Triangle Park NC. Here is one news example:

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/telangana/an-app-to-the-aid-of-health-department/article31273001.ece

  36. Dearest Christopher Monckton: Thank you for your informational series! I have been evolving my thinking on the lockdowns, and it’s thoughtful information like from you that has helped me evolve. You are a global treasure in more than this area! Thank you again.

    • Mario, that is exactly what this minor league british aristocrat is trying to do. Help convince the sheeple to accept house arrest and the end civil society as we know it.

      His claims this graph or his original table of numbers “proves ” lockdowns work is a sham. Nothing he pas presented even attempts to prove it in a scientific way. There is no evidence, no correlation, the attribution is assumed from the outset and never proven.

      All epidemics slow down and fade out, even without human intervention. The question is how quickly is this happening and is there any evidence which clearly shows a effect at the right time to suggest attribution.

      He does not even get to the point of marking when measures came into effect, so he is not even looking for proof.

      This whole series is a sham of pseudo-science to push an agenda, which exactly what WUWT has always opposed. Why this frawwwd is allowed to continue here is beyond me. Very disappointing.

      • Why the Ad hominem attack? I find it yuk

        Here is a man ( complete name and all) with the courage of his convictions willing to expose himself to the forum snake pit. Bigger balls than mine for sure

        M

        • Michael: You said what I tried to say with so few words.
          This is 10 seconds version and well worth the time:

        • After several days of him posting this BS and refusing even to comment on proper graph of the data ( not his concocted mess which would obscure a real effect even if there was one ) , he clearly is not interested in a proper scientific discussion about his fake “proof”. He is pushing an agenda.

          While some here fawningly refer to him as “your lordship” bestowing on him a peerage he does not even own, his position in landed gentry may shed some light on why he is pushing the confinement of the lower classes. That is not ad hom as a substitute for a logical argument, he has refused have.

          • There is no distinction between classes Greg every one is locked down, unless you know better, your going into the wilds of conspiracy theory Greg, do you think lord monckton is flying the flag for the upper classes as they charge down on white horses to surpress the grunts, argue reasonably and stop attacking the man.

      • Greg:
        I was careful in how I wrote what I wrote.
        I see that there are more ways to view this than as a binary argument, and when information is well reasoned and laid out, we can have a better understanding of why the response has been so extreme. I have been a cheerleader against the government choosing who is legally allowed to earn a living!

        I have always thought, and still think that the amount of damage we are doing economically is akin to cytokine storm on the economy, the likes of which we’ve never seen. And that cost is unimaginably huge.

        I immediately thought and still think the biggest problem in all of this is that there is no concrete accounting of the denominator, so we don’t know the mortality rate. We may never know. And that is terrible.

        I do think that the severity of the WuFlu is much greater than my direct experience of it (I sick for only 5 days of crud and breathing problems, fever, aches). I would take that over some flu’s I’ve had in the past, but my state of health is higher now for me so that certainly skews my opinion!

        I now understand that a mortality rate number (especially that it’s incorrectly accounted for, but used anyway) is a less than poor indicator of the severity of this virus.

        I also have conservative medical doctor friends who tell me this is very much more serious than the flu, in how it’s impacting staff at hospitals and how people are dying with this unlike anything they’ve seen. Maybe that’s self induced because of how we are treating it or maybe it’s a valid thing to know.

        There is more to know from with this ongoing story –and without hearing reasoned opinions, from people like Monckton and yourself, we are all flying that much more blindly.

        • I would not class what CofB presents reasoned opinion and sadly he will not address issues raised by others ( that is not new or unique to this subject, his Bode paper was the same ). However, I thank you for you calm and measured language. It is refreshingly soothing.

  37. I just did a news search on “Boris Johnson” in Duck Duck Go and Google

    Duck Duck Go

    U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Improving and Sitting Up in Bed
    Newsweek|1 hour ago

    The U.K. chancellor gave an update on the prime minister’s condition after Johnson was admitted to intensive care with COVID-19.
    Boris Johnson stable in ICU as UK virus deaths pass 7,000
    ABC|1 hour ago

    Boris Johnson’s spokesman says the British prime minister is “responding to treatment” but remains in intensive care with the new coronavirus
    Boris Johnson’s condition improving from coronavirus
    The Canadian Press on MSN.com|27 minutes ago

    Britain’s Treasury chief says Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s condition is improving in the intensive care unit of a London hospital. Rishi Sunak says Johnson has been sitting up in bed and engaging with his doctors at St.
    Coronavirus: Boris Johnson ‘improving’ as intensive care treatment continues
    BBC|1 hour ago

    Google:

    UK coronavirus live: record daily death toll of 938, as Rishi Sunak says Boris Johnson is ‘sitting up in bed’
    Prime minister ‘improving’ in intensive care, says chancellor, as he announces £750m package for charities.
    19 mins ago

    The Guardian
    Coronavirus live news: global trade forecast to fall by up to a third as US sees highest one-day death toll
    Scientists predict UK will be worst-hit country in Europe; Trump threatens to stop WHO funding; Global cases pass 1.4 million.
    10 mins ago

    CNBC
    Britain doesn’t have a deputy prime minster. So here’s who’s in charge while Boris Johnson is in hospital
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted into intensive care on Monday evening, after his coronavirus symptoms worsened. Foreign …
    31 mins ago

    The New York Times
    Coronavirus World: Full Coverage
    Up to 150 Saudi royals are infected, while Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, remains in intensive care. China ended its lockdown of …
    47 mins ago

    First four hits and Google mentions Johnson’s condition as an aside. Isn’t that just ever wonderful. What a bunch of ….

  38. Christopher Monckton of Brenchley … very brave of you to broach the subject of something deeply sutured into the mortality rate: lifestyle choices, especially diet.

    I say “brave” because it is a hot button issue. Do we run statistics on the foundational health of both recovering and fatal cases, and cross-check for obesity, high blood pressure, heart disease, and diabetes? And then further cross-check for high carb diet? I would conjecture that the correlation of mortality with “old people, period” is actually correlated with ‘old people who have eaten poorly for a longer time.’

    The case can be made these are volitional choices. Personal responsibility. (I will immediately say that I am not advocating null treatment if you have the conditions.) There is another case to be made for the sanctioning of high carbohydrate diets by the scientific community – how to gauge the complicity for that.

    The politically-incorrect position is to peer into these responsibilities at the root, while the general ethos is “who cares what is at the root, do not judge.”

  39. In countries that are proud of their healthcare, the virus feels great. In countries where healthcare is weak, people don’t leave the house.

  40. There you are drowning in the sea. A possible life line is thrown ,attached to it is a water tight plastic container.DO YOU SHOUT OUT “I CAN’T USE THAT ,IT HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED” AS A FLOATATION AID. BOLLOCKS ! TAKE THE HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE,AZITHROMYCIN & ZINC.

  41. I feel that you’all are looking at the wrong countries. Note data/1m pop Iceland and Luxembourg (Worldometer) 300,000 + pop is enough

    Switzerland and Norway should also be studied imo. These are all countries that we can trust with data

    I feel that My Lord has been subject to unhelpful criticism. We need people like him to keep the debate active. I do disagree with some of his judgments but there is no “right” within this fog of war. There is only the least wrong of which we can not yet quantify

    As for medications here proclaimed, images of a snake oil salesman standing on his wagon keep popping up

    Me? My business is dead and may take years to rise again from the embers – a small price to pay for what I hope is a new world in which the wokey fluff and bullsheet is drowned by what really matters. The world was in a bad place

    Cheers

    M

    • When health care professionals put their entire reputation on the line based on scanty evidence, and furthermore seek out media to trumpet their claims as loudly as possible, we know from the global warming nonsense what happens: Such an individual has painted themselves into a corner, and can be counted on as a matter of human nature and logical certainty that this person is no longer an objective fact gatherer, but a biased advocate with and agenda that must be protected and defended.

    • ” I hope is a new world in which the wokey fluff and bullsheet is drowned by what really matters.”

      I wish you were right but sadly you can not cure stupidity. What we are seeing is an pandemic of stupidity and I don’t see it being cured by 400mg of hcq, 5g may be a more suitable dose.

      The marxist enviros will hail COVID as showing what we “need” to do , they will take the shutdown a blue print for the rest of the century. The Chinses will be quietely smiling to themselves.

    • “As for medications here proclaimed, images of a snake oil salesman standing on his wagon keep popping up”

      I heard an interesting story tonight about hydroxychloroquine. Dr. Seigle, who is a contributing doctor/commentator at Fox News Channel said tonight that his own 96-year-old father was infected with the Wuhan Virus, and told him he thought he was about to die, and so Dr. Seigle arranged to get his father some hydroxychloroquine, and after taking the medication, his father made a miraculous recovery.

        • It could be. A lot of Trump haters seem to be focusing in on disparaging the drug, but what they are really doing is trying to disparage Trump. They just can’t be objective.

          Anything Trump is for, they are against. A knee-jerk reaction.

          • If someone is convinced that they will die if they get this disease, and also think that chloroquine is the only hope of being cured, that person will be very afraid and think they are about to die if they get the virus.
            It does not mean they were about to die.
            Likewise, getting a drug which you think is “the cure” will then transform one’s thought pattern to “I am not gonna die”.
            And how one feels can be very important, but none of that has anything to say about the value of the drug, or who lives and dies.
            Looked at another way, if someone has a case of pneumonia which has been dragging on and that person is becoming mentally fatigued, to the point of starting to think about just giving up (There is very definitely a stage of injury or illness in which a person needs to fight to stay alive, and will die if they stop fighting. I had this when I was injured after my car accident. Collapsed lung, almost every rib broken, ruptured diaphragm, severe blood loss, and it happened in Yellowstone Park…9000 feet above sea level IIRC. I was fighting the whole time and knew if I stopped struggling to breathe I would die immediately), and in the middle of that, when such thoughts are entering one’s mind…then you get what you believe is what will save you. Regardless of anything else, this will strengthen resolve to fight on, which is all it might take to make the difference at that point.
            This is the placebo effect. The belief that you are cured replaces the belief that you are doomed. Our mind becomes very important in times like this.
            We all know of the stories of people who were at death’s door, and wanted to live for some particular event…a birthday, a Holiday, some person that was coming to see them…and then once that event passed, so too did the person. People can delay their own demise sheerly through willpower. It may not even be uncommon. A young person who is strong is less needful of a strong will to survive than someone who is very weak, sick, badly injured, etc.

  42. Seeing diet advice in this Post & in some comments I am going to question any assumption that low-carbohydrate intake is necessarily going to be useful in ameliorating this Wuhan virus. Yes, I do understand that high carbohydrate intake & modern physical activity can be less than ideal for many.

    What should be understood is that aside from glucose (blood “sugar” from diet) being used to burn metabolism we humans use glucose for another key purpose, which ketones & fats (fatty acids)are not capable of doing. It is glucose which our bodies ideally use in what is known as the pentose phosphate pathway; where for each glucose molecule we can get 12 NADPH molecules (pathway processes NADP+).

    Why is this technicality relevant to lay people? NADPH is what our cells need to naturally deal with acute “oxidative” stress, which is the event when our key cellular anti-oxidants glutathione & thiols get “oxidized” ; in effect NADPH refreshes them for re-use. Infections (ex: lung) are naturally fought by the reactive oxygen species called “super-oxide” & hydrogen peroxide, both of which are made possible by using available NADPH.

    So what blood glucose level, setting aside genetics, will exhibit more of the ideal level of NADPH for adults naturally fighting (say) acute lung infection? That would be closer to 8 milliMole glucose/mL than 7 milliMole/mL (while for around 8.5 milliMole & 7 milliMole there is the same anti-oxidant capability).

    But then, after 10 milliMole glucose /mL the dynamic explained above unvortunately generates excessive reactive oxygen & becomes pro-inflammatory, which is undesirable in Wuhan Flu afflicted lungs. This hyper-glycemia blood sugar level is characteristic for Type2 diabetics & they are considered high risk for Wuhan Flu mortality.

    • gringojay

      I agree that a violent switch from high carb to low carb cannot be considered a treatment for this crisis. The issues with that switch are to be evaluated long term and from 30,000 feet.

      It also appears important to not do it, as you outline, because the shock of the switch could lead down the specific undesirable path you describe.

      I’ll leave unchallenged your implication (If you are indeed making it) that running the human organism on ketones is a setup per se on inability to fight in general. A quick glance at the literature reveals counter evidence. I am on extensive long term ketogenesis myself, and I am not worried.

      Nevertheless, in the background of all this: obesity, diabetes, hypertension … these are diet choices, largely. The finger is pointed at high carb in general, and especially high refined carb overeating.

      • Again W. – Ketogenic diets are not something I am disparaging. What I’d like to add is some greater context.

        We fight foreign attacking viruses (& bacteria) when our bodies register them at what are callec “Toll-like” receptors. These receptors are part of what our human neutrophils are doing.

        Neutrophil Toll-like receptors then provoke the production of reactive oxygen. This in turn causes neutrophils to create extra-cellular (outside a cell) “trap” to try & contain the pathogen inside.

        WuhanFlu is eerily making patient’s lungs look like frosted glass; in part due to the massive fight the tissues are waging. Some of that severe x-ray image is the proliferation of neutrophil extra-cellular traps, which have alpha-defensin & myelo-peroxid-ase inside that can destroy pathogens.

        Which is to say we naturally are using neutrophils as an upstream feature to combact WuhanFlu downstream. This relates to low-carbohydrate diet in the following context.

        Cortisol levels that are high act on immunological components (CD11b & CD18) which in turn down-regulate (decrease) neutrophils. High fat & low carbohydrate diets in overweight adults (a WuhanFlu target population) causes cortisol to be higher than it would be in a more balanced fat to carbohydrate proportional ratio diet.

        This is not to say low carbohydrate diets are completely anathema to us having neutrophils. Because when the sick lose appetite & do not eat this also elevates cortisol.

        In turn eating things which stimulate insulin & insulin-like growth factor 1 are what increase our amount of neutrophils. So I wish to mention that high-protein meals boost insulin-like growth factor 1 & thus contribute to sustaining neutrophil levels.

        Which in general terms means, to me, a ketogenic diet based on “fat” is relying on protein to counter-balance factors in such a way as to have suitable neutrophil fighters against the WuhanFlu. So I don’t think such a dietary switch is indicated at this time for strategic purposes & guess those already established eating in such a way for a long term have a reasonable adaptation.

        I’ll close by mentioning ketogenic diets also increase one’s level of beta-hydroxy-butyrate & this can (not must) become a factor in cardiac complications for some individuals. We know another WuhanFlu target population is adults with heart problems & thus I hesitate to extoll the ketogenic diet as superior for this time of pandemic.

        • I already stipulated that I agree that a panic switch to what made you fat (SAD — too much refined carb) to ketogenesis a) might be dangerous; or b) would not help healing if you infected with this virus. Thank you for adding context, although I won’t drill down on it.

          Your last paragraph weaves proximate crisis advice with general assessment. I won’t touch it.

          I will repeat this: my word to Christopher Monckton of Brenchley is to salute bravery for broaching the politically incorrect subject of personal responsibility for individuals inhabiting the target population for mortality. I am a champion of ketogenesis as a countermeasure against obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes. With that lifestyle there is little chance of widespread trend in that direction. High carb advocates have the responsibility of showing the world the way of restraint of sugar and binging. In other words, how do you prevent the monster of sugar and overeating from showing its fangs on high carb? Personal responsibility.

    • I do not believe that CM meant to suggest “that low-carbohydrate intake is necessarily going to be useful in ameliorating this Wuhan virus.” Rather, his point was that people who are in good physical condition, rather than overweight and/or diabetic, are much more likely to be able fight off this infection, and that a low-carb diet helps many people improve their physical condition.

    • Seeing diet advice in this Post & in some comments I am going to question any assumption that low-carbohydrate intake is necessarily going to be useful in ameliorating this Wuhan virus

      Please quote where you think he said that it would be, as that’s NOT what he said *at all*. He very specifically mentioned such a diet, having been started years prior, as being a factor in ameliorating previous-existing comorbidities (overweight and diabetes).

  43. Latest report is that Boris Johnson is now able to sit up, and is starting to feel better! He’s a fighter!

    • That’s good news. Hopefully he will come out this with a greater understanding of why we need a functional NHS, not the shell of a run down , under funded mess that we currently have.

      The years of austerity and penny pinching have just come home to roost and are costing us far more than we ever saved.

  44. The article seems a little overblown-

    “Professor Klaus Püschel, head of forensic medicine in Hamburg, explains about Covid19: „This virus influences our lives in a completely excessive way. This is disproportionate to the danger posed by the virus. And the astronomical economic damage now being caused is not commensurate with the danger posed by the virus. I am convinced that the Corona mortality rate will not even show up as a peak in annual mortality.“ In Hamburg, for example, „not a single person who was not previously ill“ had died of the virus: „All those we have examined so far had cancer, a chronic lung disease, were heavy smokers or severely obese, suffered from diabetes or had a cardiovascular disease. The virus was the last straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak. „Covid-19 is a fatal disease only in exceptional cases, but in most cases it is a predominantly harmless viral infection.”

    • Thanks Richard. At least there are a few sane voices out there. The big story here is the damage we are doing to ourselves.

      If this leaked man-made virus was indeed intended as a weapon, it has been amazingly powerful in destroying the West but not through its mortality but its ability to affect our brains.

      With the help of our ruling classes we are doing far more destruction to our own societies than any enemy could have hoped.

      CofB seems to have been allowed to leverage the circulation of WUWT to spread his Mannian pseudo-science as a fake “proof” this is all working in halting the epidemic, whilst ignoring the fact there is no evidence of any effect in the data:
      https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-fit-france.png

      It may well be serving his own personal interests but it is not serving ours.

      • Hi Greg,

        “Infection control experts say there is no health-based reason to justify Ottawa’s quarantine measures. The decision is more likely a political response to a different epidemic: the spread of fear and anxiety’

        Some weird stupidity has overcome the world. Thankfully the lawyers are lining up-

        “Several German law firms are preparing lawsuits against the measures and regulations that have been issued. A specialist in medical law writes in a press release: „The measures taken by the federal and state governments are blatantly unconstitutional and violate a multitude of basic rights of citizens in Germany to an unprecedented extent. This applies to all corona regulations of the 16 federal states. In particular, these measures are not justified by the Infection Protection Act, which was revised in no time at all just a few days ago. Because the available figures and statistics show that corona infection is harmless in more than 95% of the population and therefore does not represent a serious danger to the general public.”

  45. “Churches do online broadcasts. Churches that refuse to comply are fined, and are made to pay the medical bills of anyone with the infection who is traceable to them.”

    Medical fascism medical fascism medical fascism

  46. Lord Monckton,

    I am curious about this: “detailed serological research on thousands of blood samples from randomly-chosen members of the public is now being conducted”

    How are these people picked? Are they volunteers, or just randomly chosen and recommended to take the test? What is done if somebody refuses?

    • In response to Mr Capezzuoli, the volunteers are randomly chosen, in accordance with a protocol that takes age, ethnicity, previous medical history and suchlike factors into account. Since the British are a public-spiritied lot, particularly when our backs are to the wall, there is no need for coercion, which is not the British way. In the very few cases where a member of the public refuses to participate, another is approached instead.

  47. Dear Chris,

    Great job! This is the most valuable article which I’ve read so far, on this pandemic.

    Stephen Mosher’s account of how the South Koreans are handling this pandemic so successfully is especially informative. (BTW, which of the several well-known “Stephen Mosher”s is he, and does he have a Twitter handle?)
     

    Re: “…the social-distancing advice was in one grave respect flat wrong. The recommendation was that people should keep 6ft 6 (2 meters) apart. That is all very well out of doors, where the volume of air dilutes the viral density and the chaotropic effect of sunlight kills the virions. Indoors, however, 16 ft is the minimum distance necessary to be reasonably sure of interfering with transmission.”

    Exactly right!

    That seems obvious, to me, but you are the first person of prominence I’ve heard say it. Many people think a six foot distance keeps them safe indoors, which is dangerous nonsense. In fact, 16 feet is optimistic.

    Here’s a good rule of thumb: If you are close enough to smell someone’s perfume or other odors, then you are certainly inhaling a lot of air which he or she has exhaled.

    Or, think of this: They say the virus can remain active in the air for between one and two hours. Well, I have a bread machine which wonderfully perfumes the entire house within minutes of when the bread starts baking.
     

    I have only one minor point of disagreement with you. You wrote, “Confirmed cases represent only one-tenth to one-hundredth of the true number of cases. We do not yet know exactly, but…”

    In the very early days of the pandemic, that was probably true, but I doubt that the number of undiagnosed cases could be as high as ten times the number of confirmed cases, now, in the U.S., U.K., and most other first world countries.

    It is certainly much, much less than that in South Korea. If there were ten undiagnosed carriers of the disease for each confirmed case, then South Korea’s strategy, of aggressively testing and tracking contacts, would not have been successful.

    You report that S. Korea has “20,000 people with no symptoms,” who are as yet asymptomatic, but had contact with a patient, and are awaiting test results (presumably while self-isolating). Based on South Korea’s daily new confirmed case numbers (less than 100 per day), at most 5% of the 20,000 will eventually test positive, probably less. As of today, South Korea has had 10,423 confirmed cases, of which 3,246 are still active. If there were nine unconfirmed cases for each confirmed active case, there, that would mean at least (9 × 3,246) – (5% of 20,000) = ≥28,218 undetected cases, who are not among the 20,000 self-isolating suspected contacts. If there were really that many unsuspected carriers of the disease, then the number of daily new cases and deaths in South Korea would be exploding, rather than declining. If one unsuspected carrier infects one person per day (just a WAG), that would mean there can be no more than a few dozen unsuspected carriers in all of South Korea, now.

    By now, in most countries, most symptomatic cases are being correctly diagnosed, albeit after a delay of perhaps five days. That leaves the asymptomatic cases.

    From smallish populations, like the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers and crew, we have a pretty good idea of what percentage of people who contract the disease become symptomatic: it’s about half. In addition, we know that most people who do become symptomatic are asymptomatic for a few days, at the beginning.

    That suggests that in the USA and Europe, where the epidemic is not under control, the number of undiagnosed cases, on average, is perhaps three times the number of confirmed cases. It could be as high as five, but I doubt it is higher than that.
     

    Re: “…those who die today will have contracted the infection about three weeks previously… [and] …the total number of reported cases three weeks ago was far less than the number of deaths reported today.”

    An alternate explanation is that it does not take three weeks from infection to death. On average, it is probably less than two weeks. Many of the people who die from this disease go downhill very fast.

    Two weeks ago, on March 26 the U.S. daily new confirmed case count surged to 17,388, and total confirmed cases rose to 86,035. Twelve days later, on April 7, the number of deaths spiked to 1,971. If the average time from infection to death was twelve days, and there were three as-yet-undiagnosed new cases for each confirmed new case, that would mean the actual number of new infections on March 26 was 3 × 17,388 = 52,164. 1,971 dead / 52,164 actual cases 12 days earlier = 3.8%, which is a very plausible fatality rate.

  48. “Very sadly, on current data, he is more likely to die than not”

    Not very good current data. He is out of intensive care.

    This is the problem with the Corona virus as illustrated here-

    “Infection control experts say there is no health-based reason to justify Ottawa’s quarantine measures. The decision is more likely a political response to a different epidemic: the spread of fear and anxiety”

    and here-

    “Once an old, wise man was sitting under a tree when the epidemic god came along. The wise man asked him, “Where are you going?” The god of epidemic replied, “I’m going to the city and I’m going to kill a hundred people there.” On his return journey, the god of epidemic came back to the wise man. The wise man said to him, “You told me that you wanted to kill a hundred people. But travellers told me that ten thousand had died.” The epidemic god said, “I only killed a hundred. The others were killed by their own fear.”
    – Zen Buddhist allegory

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