By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The ineptitude of Western governments when keeping crucial statistics about the Chinese virus is becoming culpable. For a start, they are not even counting deaths either consistently or competently. In Britain, for instance, total reported deaths to April 17, 2020, were 14,576. However, a report issued April 16 by the Office for National Statistics points out that deaths are registered up to five days after they occur, and that the numbers given in HM Government’s daily briefings carefully exclude all deaths that do not occur in hospitals.
Correcting for these two serious errors indicates that the true number of deaths is about 50% greater than the Government’s cited figures, implying that in the UK the deaths from this dangerous pathogen are already approaching 22,000.
The regime in China has finally bowed a little before the gale of international criticism of its failure to provide the correct daily case-counts and death-counts required by its obligations at international law in terms of the World Health Organization treaty. After having reported only a tiny handful of deaths each day over recent weeks, it has suddenly admitted to more than 1000 hitherto-undisclosed deaths in Wuhan. Even now, it is very doubtful whether this admission represents anything more than a tiny fraction of the true count.
In China’s north-easternmost province, there have been very long lines outside the district hospital. Unconfirmed reports suggest an outbreak no less severe than that in Wuhan.
Not only are deaths not being recorded or reported correctly or timeously: recovered cases are also not being properly kept. The United Kingdom, whose civil service has become so used to everything being done for it by the European tyranny-by-clerk, has proven wholly unable to keep a tally of those who, having shown symptoms of the infection, have recovered from it. HM Government has altogether abandoned its daily reporting of recovered cases.
During the early stages of any pandemic, it is essential to keep a careful tally both of deaths and of recoveries, since the ratio of deaths to closed cases (i.e., to deaths plus those who have recovered) is a not unreliable indicator of the true case-fatality rate.
As the pandemic enters its middle stages – which is about where we are now – it is still more important to know how many have recovered, since the crucial number which tells governments whether they need to tighten or loosen control measures is the mean daily compound growth rate in currently-active cases, for those who have either recovered or died are no longer capable of transmitting the infection.
But it is impossible to calculate the number of currently-active cases, because governments are not correctly counting those who have recovered. Nor, for that matter, are they yet able to form a mature view of what fraction of the population have contracted the infection but are either asymptomatic or are showing such mild symptoms that they do not – for now, at any rate – require hospitalization.
Frankly, the record-keeping has been abysmal. Yet another lesson to be learned from South Korea is that proper, careful, up-to-date, case-by-case records absolutely must be maintained. Without them, governments are simply guessing what they should do.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 16, 2020.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 16, 2020.
In the meantime, the case-growth and death-growth graphs, based on such woefully inadequate data as are published, show very clearly that those who have tried to maintain that this pandemic is no worse than the seasonal flu are flat wrong.
In Ireland, growth in cumulative cases remains dangerously high at 13% compound every day. In the United States, though, that growth is now about 5.5% compound every day.
In Canada, growth in cumulative deaths is 13% compound every day; in the United States, 11%. Mr Cuomo, at his press conference in New York, says that the growth rate in new cases is now negative. However, it is not just the new cases but the active cases – those that are currently infections – that will determine the rate of growth in future. It is good that the number of new cases is declining, but one cannot say the worst is over until one knows that the number of active cases is declining. And one cannot know that if one does not count not only deaths but also recovered cases properly.
High-resolution images of the two graphs are here.
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learn from Asia
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nishandegnarain/2020/04/17/how-uv-roomba-robots-could-accelerate-the-opening-of-mass-transit-systems/#2786190a1f7f
John Lennon’s song “Imagine” was all about the Chinese Communist manifesto. Imagine that!
like in Japan? Do nothing and still have low numbers?
Or maybe it is because Tokyo has such a low population density and no mass transportation…
low population density and no mass transportation…Spot on LOL.
I have to congratulate CofB on finally making a coherent and valid point.
Since this whole lockdown shitstorm is supposed to be about keeping the load on health services within manageable bounds, it is a matter of culpable incompetence and mismanagement that the primary metric of this : number of active cases, is not even being measured.
Even if this was not readily available initially we are now about 2 months into the health crisis, having already had an extra two month prior warning from events in China. We apparently wasted that lead time sitting back, pointing and laughing a Red communist China and their draconian Maoist control methods. In the two months we have had our own problem we were not able or not motivated to organise a count of active cases in UK.
Without even an approximate metric of core condition you are allegedly trying to control the country is like a ship at sea without a compass, with no record of where you are where you’ve been and where you are going.
In addition we have willfully ripped the main sails off the economic mast and shredded it to make face masks.
Clearly the UK has the most incompetent govt. outside of China where this release of this genetically manipulated virus occurred and was then covered up.
Both US and Ireland have been flat for well over a week ( slight neg. slope in USA ) in terms of new daily cases.
If CofB is still getting a firm exponential growth for total cases in US and ” dangerously high at 13% compound every day” in Ireland he probably needs to re-examine his method.
Everything surrounding the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been a lie except for the fact that just like the seasonal flu it kills the elderly and people who have serious underlying medical problems.
Just like the the seasonal flu? The virus has killed 0.8% of the population of New York state and 0.4% of the population of Belgium in the last 2 months. What the *&^% are you talking about?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Oops. I think you will find its 0.08% of New Yorkers.
Your link says that 873 per million of population is the current death toll. That comes out to 0.000873 ( 0.0873%), a factor of almost ten less than your number. There are also numerous miscounts that seem to be inflating the death numbers while deflating the total cases. All the numbers are suspect at this point, so the convesation is moot. I still don’t know anyone who knows anyone who has positively had it, though I now believe I had it around Christmas.
Aaron
You off by a factor of 10 at least.
I keep bring this up but India infection rate is very low and of all countries in the world you would think it would run wild there. It’s not testing because they have test nearly 1/2 a million and still have very low rates.
Whoops.
Still with lockdowns in place for the last weeks we are still approaching the total deaths for the year for the seasonal flu with no special measures after only 2 months.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
And that is comparing a statistical estimate to an almost certain gross undercount.
“Just like the the seasonal flu? The virus has killed 0.8% of the population of New York state and 0.4% of the population of Belgium in the last 2 months. What the *&^% are you talking about?”
Did you read what OWG actually typed?
The seasonal flu kills TENS of THOUSANDS of Americans every year! Are you under the delusion that THAT isn’t a ‘serious’ threat? ALL flu’s are dangerous, especially to the elderly!
In Australia if you are under the age of 50 you are statistically more likely to die from shark attack.
Also in Australia a person dies every three and half minutes from all causes. Of these ’causes’ 19 of the top 20 can loosely be referred to as ‘old people diseases’ with median ages in the 80s. The other is Intentional Self Harm which is – from memory – 12th on the list and has a median age of 44.
Death toll linked to Wuhan Virus in Australia was just under 70 last time I check.
What has this got to do with NYC and Belgium?
Well for a start it demonstrates that while this may be a ‘global’ problem, it does not have consistent affects. Death rates NYC do not match death rates Australia. Why? Very open question, possibly connected to temperature, population density, general health levels, age demographics. Open question.
However it is very clear that trying to use the figures from one region in order to obtain a definitive prediction for another area is high risk and probably should be completely avoided.
You say NYC! What the *&^% are you talking about? I say Australia, and get over yourself. Both are, within the limits of reporting methods, ‘correct’, but neither are helpful in relation to the other without deeper analysis.
Anyway, I am under 50, and in the interest of my health and wellbeing shall be watching very carefully for sharks.
New York novel coronavirus reported deaths, scaled to 10M population, is nearly 8000 as of yesterday.
Average monthly mortality, from all causes, for New York is 6500.
The coronavirus deaths are neither a lie nor are repackaged “normal” mortality.
I’ve looked at other data sets as well: England also shows this spike: Week 14 for 2020 had over 16000 deaths from all causes; weeks 1-14 in 2018 and 2019, and weeks 1-13 in 2020 – none of them have more than 15500 deaths. For all 3 years, the mortality falls from January to April but not in 2020 (big spike in week 14/April 3).
Lastly: the novel coronavirus doesn’t just kill the elderly and sick. It kills young people too – at a frequency roughly comparable to old/sick people dying from regular flu.
I understand and agree with the frustration over lockdowns – but nCOV isn’t a lie and is a real thing.
Aaron Watters
Yearly Influenza deaths as CDC reported are wildly exaggerated. 50 to 60k deaths. The actual tested influenza deaths are about 10% of the stated numbers. The exaggerated death toll is in fact interesting because if the vaccine is working year over year you might expect a lower death rate to maybe 0???
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/no_author/flu-misinformation-and-coronavirus-fears-my-letter-to-dr-sanjay-gupta/
who lied?
Who ignored warnings given by WHO
December 21st 2019
Chinese epidemiologists with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published an article on 20th January 2020 stating that the first cluster of patients with ‘pneumonia of an unknown cause’ had been identified on 21st December 2019
You cannot act on this – it is a sort of pneumonia with unknown transmission. It was published therefore no secret
December 31st 2019
Chinese authorities confirmed they were treating dozens of cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. Days laters researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people. There was no evidence that the virus was spread by humans.
China contacts the WHO and informs them of ‘cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology’ detected in Wuhan
no evidence for human to human spread and who informed
1 January 2020
WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.
January 2nd 2020
Central Hospital of Wuhan banned its staff from discussing the disease publicly or recording them using text or image that can be used as evidence
Chinese damage limitation not called for
4 January 2020
WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province.
5 January 2020
WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.
January 8th 2020
The Chinese government agrees to accept a WHO scientific team to assist their own researchers
WHO goes to China now they cannot hide problems
10 January 2020
Developed with reference to other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, WHO issued a tool for countries to check their ability to detect and respond to a novel coronavirus. This information is to help with identifying main gaps, assessing risks and planning for additional investigations, response and control actions.
January 11th 2020
Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus. It was a 61-year old man who was a regular customer of the market in Wuhan where the virus is believed to have originated, and had previously been found to have abdominal tumors and chronic liver disease.
first death many co-morbidities – so was this the virus?
12 January 2020
China shares the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus, which will be very important for other countries as they develop specific diagnostic kits.
First case of novel coronavirus outside of China confirmed
13 January 2020
Officials confirmed a case of the novel coronavirus in Thailand. It was not unexpected that cases of the novel coronavirus would emerge outside of China and reinforces why WHO calls for active monitoring and preparedness in other countries.
WHO makes field visit to Wuhan, China
January 14th 2020
Reporters from Hong Kong taken to police station after trying to film the situation within Wuhan hospital
Chinese damage limitation
14 January 2020
WHO’s technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens.
January 20th 2020
The first confirmed cases outside mainland China occurred in Japan, South Korea and Thailand, according to the WHO.
January 21st 2020
The first confirmed case of the virus in the US in Washington State, where a man in his 30s developed symptoms after returning from a trip to Wuhan.
US now knows
21 January 2020
The delegation observed and discussed active surveillance processes, temperature screening at Wuhan Tianhe airport, laboratory facilities, infection prevention and control measures at Zhongnan hospital and its associated fever clinics, and the deployment of a test kit to detect the virus.
The delegation also discussed public communication efforts and China’s plan to expand the case definition for the novel coronavirus, which will build a clearer picture of the spectrum of severity of the virus. At the end of the visit, the Chinese Government released the primers and probes used in the test kit for the novel coronavirus to help other countries detect it. Chinese experts also shared a range of protocols that will be used in developing international guidelines, including case definitions, clinical management protocols and infection control.
Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
January 22nd 2020
Public Health England announces it is moving the risk level to the British public from ‘very low’ to ‘low’.
uk knows – us and uk not taking action – why?
22 January 2020
WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.
22- 23 January 2020
The WHO Director- General convened an Emergency Committee (EC) under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to assess whether the outbreak constituted a public health emergency of international concern. The independent members from around the world could not reach a consensus based on the evidence available at the time. They asked to be reconvened within 10 days after receiving more information.
January 23rd 2020
Wuhan (population over 11 million) is cut off by the Chinese authorities. Planes and trains leaving the city are cancelled, and buses, subways and ferries within the city are suspended. 17 people had died at this point and 570 infected in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the US.
Figures compiled by the Chinese Railway Administration showed that approximately 100,000 people had already departed from Wuhan Train Station by the deadline.
Construction begins in Wuhan for a specialist emergency hospital which opened on 3rd February
lock down – us uk no action why?
Trump::Jan 24
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!
January 26th 2020
China extends the ‘Spring Festival’ holiday in order to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
Schools in Beijing to stay closed until further notice
Trump:: Jan 27
We are in very close communication with China concerning the virus. Very few cases reported in USA, but strongly on watch. We have offered China and President Xi any help that is necessary. Our experts are extraordinary!
28 January 2020
A senior WHO delegation led by the Director-General travelled to Beijing to meet China’s leadership, learn more about China’s response, and to offer any technical assistance.
While in Beijing, Dr. Tedros agreed with Chinese government leaders that an international team of leading scientists would travel to China on a mission to better understand the context, the overall response, and exchange information and experience.
January 29th 2020
The UK’s first two patients test positive for Coronavirus after two Chinese nationals from the same family staying at a hotel in York fall ill.
A plane evacuating Britons from Wuhan arrives at RAF Brize Norton. Passengers go into a 14 day quarantine at a specialist hospital on Merseyside.
still no uk/us action
January 30th 2020
WHO declares a global health emergency amid thousands of new cases in China.
who declares emergency – there is a definite problem – us/uk no action
30 January 2020
WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, following a second meeting of the Emergency Committee convened under the International Health Regulations.
Acknowledging that cases have been reported in five WHO regions in one month, the Committee noted that early detection, isolating and treating cases, contact tracing and social distancing measures – in line with the level of risk – can all work to interrupt virus spread.
Trump::jan 30
Working closely with China and others on Coronavirus outbreak. Only 5 people in U.S., all in good recovery.
Trump::Jan 30
Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!
January 31st 2020
The US suspends entry into the country by any foreign nationals who had travelled to China in the past 14 days, excluding the immediate family members of US citizens or permanent residents.
213 people had died and 9,800 infected worldwide.
us action on flights (should have happened earlier to be effective virus is already rampant in us) us/uk no lock down why?
February 1st 2020
Spain confirms its first case of the coronavirus on La Gomera in the Canary Islands
February 2nd 2020
The first death of coronavirus is reported outside China, as a 44-year-old man in the Philippines dies after being infected.
3 February 2020
WHO releases the international community’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to help protect states with weaker health systems
February 4th 2020
The UK directs its citizens to leave China if possible
spread it further???
February 5th 2020
A cruise ship in Japan quarantines 3600 people after a two-week trip to Southeast Asia. 218 people onboard the ship tested positive for the virus.
February 7th 2020
The Chinese doctor Dr. Li Wenliang, who tried to ring early alarms that a cluster of infections could spin out of control, dies after contracting the virus. He was reprimanded by authorities in early January and he was forced to sign a statement denouncing his warning as an unfounded and illegal rumor.
Trump:: Feb 7
Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!
Trump::Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”
February 11th 2020
The disease is named ‘Covid-19’, an acronym that stands for coronavirus disease 2019. 1113 people in China have died with 44,653 cases, and 393 cases outside of China.
11-12 February 2020
WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19, attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, Director General of China CDC, and Zunyou Wu, China CDC’s chief epidemiologist.
February 14th 2020
France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe – an 80-year-old Chinese tourist. The fourth death from the virus outside mainland China.
Egypt confirms its first case, the first on the African continent.
Trump::Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
February 17th 2020
China said it was reviewing its trade and consumption of wildlife, which has been identified as a probable source of the outbreak
February 19th 2020
443 passengers leave the Diamond Princess cruises ship. A total of 621 people aboard the ship were infected.
Trump::Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”
February 21st 2020
The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source. Iran announced the two cases then hours later said that both patients had died. Two days later, Iran announced two additional deaths.
The South Korean government shuts down thousands of kindergartens, nursing homes and community centres, following a surge in infections linked to the secretive church the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.
south korean lock down bypassed by religious sect worship
February 23rd 2020
Italy sees a major surge in coronavirus cases – up to 150. Officials locked down 10 towns in Lombardy after a cluster of cases suddenly emerged in Codogno, southeast of Milan. Schools closed and sporting and cultural events were canceled.
Italy introduces strict measures which place almost 50,000 people in lockdown in an attempt to control the virus
italy lock down too late
February 24th 2020
The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion for coronavirus response – the US had 35 confirmed cases and no deaths.
Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus, with 61 cases and 12 deaths. It is a cause for worry as a place of pilgrimage.
Iran problems made worse by sanctions
Trump::Feb. 24 (tweet): “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Trump::Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”
Feb. 25: “Now they have it, they have studied it, they know very much, in fact, we’re very close to a vaccine,”
February 26th 2020
Latin America reports its first coronavirus case, as Brazilian health officials said that a 61-year-old Sao Paulo man, returning from Italy, tested positive for the virus.
Trump::Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
February 28th 2020
800 people are now infected in Italy, and cases in 14 other European countries remain an area of concern
Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection.
The first British victim dies of coronavirus onboard the Diamond Princess.
UK authorities confirm the first case of the illness to be passed on inside the country.
The worst week for the global stock markets since the 2008 financial crash.
The WHO raises the coronavirus alert to the highest level.
no action from us/uk re lockdown. Whatever the WHO says at this point is irrelevant – the dangers are self evident
Trump::Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate.”
Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
Feb. 28: “This is their new hoax.”
February 29th 2020
The US records its first coronavirus death and announces travel restrictions of ‘do not travel’ warnings for areas in Italy and South Korea. It also bans all travel to Iran and bars entry to any foreign citizen who had visited Iran in the previous 14 days.
the virus is loose in the us restrictions not really relevant at this point
March 4th 2020
Cases of Covid-19 surge in the UK, as officials announce the biggest one-day increase so far as 34 cases bring the total to 87
Italy announces it is shutting schools and universities.
Trump::March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 4: Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it is very mild… So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better and then, when you do have a death like you had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York, you know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4 percent, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1 percent.
Trump::March 9 (tweet): “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”
March 10th 2020
Nadine Dorries, a junior health minister, becomes the first MP to test positive for coronavirus.
6 people in the UK have now died of the illness, with 373 testing positive
Trump::March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
March 11th 2020
The US blocks travel from European countries other than the UK for 30 days, as the WHO declares the virus a pandemic and stock markets plunge.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak announces a £12bn package of emergency support to help the UK cope with the expected onslaught from coronavirus
11 March 2020
Deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction, WHO made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.
Trump::March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
Trump::March 12: “It’s going to go away. … The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”
March 13th 2020
The US declares a national emergency and makes $50 billion in federal funds available to tackle the coronavirus.
A host of UK sporting events announce their postponement including the London Marathon. Premier League fixtures are suspended.
Trump::March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
March 16th 2020
Latin America imposes restrictions on their citizens to slow the spread of the virus. Venezuela announces a nationwide quarantine to begin on March 17th. Ecuador and Peru implement countrywide lockdowns, and Colombia and Costa Rica close their borders. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro encourages mass demonstrations by his supporters against his opponents in congress.
Boris Johnson begins daily press briefings, urging everybody in the UK to work from home and avoid pubs and restaurants to give the NHS time to cope with the pandemic.
The UK’s death toll rises to 55, with 1,543 confirmed cases, though it is believed 10,000 people have already been infected.
March 17th 2020
France imposes a nationwide lockdown, prohibiting all gatherings and only allowing people to go out for fresh air. France had more than 6,500 infections with more than 140 deaths
The EU bars most travellers from outside the bloc for 30 days.
Rishi Sunak unleashes the biggest package of emergency state support for business since the 2008 financial crash, unveiling £330bn-worth of government-backed loans and more than £20bn in tax cuts and grants for companies threatened with collapse.
Trump::march 17: “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic”
March 18th 2020
The UK government announces most schools across England will be shut down from Friday until further notice. Wales and Scotland announce they will also close schools.
uk lockdown begins
18 March 2020
WHO and partners launch the Solidarity Trial, an international clinical trial that aims to generate robust data from around the world to find the most effective treatments for COVID-19.
March 19th 2020
For the first time, China reports zero local infections, a milestone in the fight against the pandemic. Experts said the country would need to see at least 14 consecutive days without new infections for the outbreak to be considered over. 34 new cases were confirmed among people who had arrived in China from elsewhere.
March 20th 2020
The UK government orders all pubs, restaurants, gyms and other social venues across the country to close
The chancellor announces the government will pay up to 80% of wages for workers at risk of being laid off
uk lockdown tightens
March 23rd 2020
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in a televised address to the nation, says that Britons should only go outside to buy food, to exercise once a day, or to go to work if they absolutely cannot work from home. Citizens will face police fines for failure to comply with these new measures.
Worldwide figures stand at more than 270,000 cases and 11,000 deaths.
March 24th 2020
Tokyo Olympics likely to be postponed – according to a member of the International Olympic Committee, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics – set to begin in August – will be postponed. Australia and Canada have already announced that their athletes will not compete
Trump::March 24: “We’re going to be opening relatively soon… I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.” He added in a subsequent interview: “Easter is a very special day for me… and you’ll have packed churches all over our country.”
March 25th 2020
Prince Charles tests positive for the coronavirus.
In the US, negotiators strike a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package intended to assist businesses and millions of Americans amid the halt in the US economy. The bill includes $1,200 for individuals earning up to $75,000, $100 billion for health care providers, and $58 billion for the US airline industry. It would also include $2,400 per month for up to four months to the unemployed. $500 billion goes to industry loans that corporations, cities, and states can apply for.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockdown of the country’s 1.3 billion residents. India has only recorded 536 cases of COVID-19 so far.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rails against coronavirus measures being taken in his country, as local officials take preparedness into their own hands.
March 26th 2020
G20 world leaders meet virtually to discuss the coronavirus crisis. King Salman of Saudi Arabia calls on the world’s richest economies to ‘extend a helping hand to developing countries’.
Brits across the UK clap, cheer, and ring bells at 8pm to thank the NHS workers for their service in tackling the pandemic.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveils a package of measures to help self-employed workers during the economic downturn, giving those earning less than £50,000 a taxable grant equal to 80 percent of their average profits.
March 27th 2020
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock test positive for the coronavirus
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says that the coronavirus crisis has exposed the EU’s ‘weaknesses’.
March 28th 2020
European COmmission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU ‘looked into the abyss’ in the early days of the crisis but now it has the chance to reinvent itself.
French President Emmanuel Macron issues a plea for European solidarity to fight the coronavirus crisis, saying ‘I don’t want a selfish and divided Europe’
Belgium extend confinement measures until 19th April
UK Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, announces he is self-isolating after experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus
March 29th 2020
The European Commission announces that it will revise its proposal for the EU’s next seven-year budget
US announces social distancing measures to continue until 30th April, as the US records the highest number of coronavirus infections in the world, at more than 139,700 cases.
March 30th 2020
Hungarian Parliament passes a bill that gives PM Viktor Orban power to rule by decree, impose a state of emergency without a time limit, and suspend parliament.
UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab announces the government is to spend £75 million on charter flights and airline tickets to repatriate up to 300,000 Britons stranded abroad as countries have closed their borders to limit the spread of the coronavirus.
March 31st 2020
Spain joins the US and Italy as one of the few countries to surpass China’s coronavirus case total, reporting 85,195 cases and 8,189 deaths.
Ethiopia announces it has postponed its parliamentary and presidential elections, originally scheduled for August. The elections were to be a big test for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reformist measures.
The White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020, if current social distancing trends hold.
April 1st 2020
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announces that the Commission will present an unemployment reinsurance scheme to ensure workers keep their jobs during the coronavirus crisis.
Italy announces it will extend lockdown measures until 13th April. Health Minister Roberto Speranza says ‘data shows that we are on the right path and that the drastic decisions are bearing fruit’.
The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) summit, due to be held in Glasgow in November, is postponed until 2021.
April 2nd 2020
The number of worldwide coronavirus cases passes one million.
ghalfrunt
April 18, 2020 at 12:58 pm
What actions not taken you are talking about?!
What actions that could have stopped the infection and the disease are you talking about?!
Have you not got yet the memo from the komisariat that such “not taken actions” that you imply, or believe wold have stopped the infection and the disease do not exist, not actually in reality!
What are you talking about?
Really.
ghalfrunt is still upset that as the situation and information changed over time, Trump changed what he was saying.
In ghalfrunt’s “mind”, the proper way to handle changing data is the way his climate scientists do. Change the data so that you can maintain a consistent story.
The UK’s Covid-19 latest update:
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/UK-COVID-19.htm
Updated with Saturday’s data
30th March, 6 th ,13th April. Odd that less people die on Mondays. Maybe less doctors on Sunday. “Clap for me now! ” 🙁
Greg, it’s more to do with worse data handling over weekends.
Can you point to any evidence for that claim?
If one waits until the undertaker is called, it’s generally too late, but doctors do more than their fair share of damage.
Less people at work weekends….large amounts of admin do not work weekends; those that do, don’t want to. Last weekend was complicated by it having two public holidays, Friday and Monday. Some will have already booked holiday (last year) for the week after the holiday Monday. Look at the days after weekends, there are always lower numbers on Mondays announced figures.
Scissor
April 18, 2020 at 12:21 pm
In consideration of poor countries, the draconian measures were simply to avoid the overloading of the undertakers…as no any prospect of hospitals overloading in this case, as these countries have no any real hospital service there for such as, to start with.
These countries seem to have done a brilliant job at that, with bearing fruits.
Those who fully embraced lock downs, pretty much got to really give away now whatever self governing sovereignty they had left, if any… for food and economical survival.
cheers
So according to those figures the “Hospitalised Infections” d days after 11th April 2020 is approximately 80000×(1+erf(d/15.7)) . The daily rate of such infections is about 5000 × exp(-(d/15.7)²). If Farr’s Law continues like this then the ultimate number of hospitalised infections would be about 160000 and the daily rate of new hospitalisations would drop below 100 per day around 12th May. Rejoice!
Learn from Jacksonville, FL. Hopefully they’re all practicing socialist distancing.
https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1251260796476305409
Learn from Italy.
With the longest period of shut down in Europe we now have 4 weekly cycles since new cases broke away from the typical evolution of an epidemic. I’ve plotted the mean between peaks and troughs to get maximum number of points indicating the new trajectory from this data.
We can see that big gains are over and that there remains a fairly small continued change of only about -120 new cases per day in figures around 3500 new daily cases. This is the down side of flattening the curve. They ki11ed the growth but they have deferred the peak. This 3500 new daily cases is the new normal for some time to come.
Even while remaining in confinement this could well rise more gently for quite some time.
This method of viewing the data will give the most sensitive means of seeing any increase which will happen about 10 days after relaxation they just introduced. There will be one more dot on this graph before it kicks in.
Learn from Germany. Dr. Hendrik Streeck
If those findings hold, that spells doom for the large international climate conferences.
Gangelt is right on the border with the Netherlands, and some of the worst affected areas in that country are just across the border from it. It’s pretty clear that the Carnival week-end (February 28-29) was when the epidemic started on the Dutch side, so presumably in Gangelt too. Carnival is a long series of street parties (and parties in pubs, too). There was also a several-day church meeting in February in France, which is implicated in the spread of the virus there. Dr. Streeck is certainly right that crowds, and being cooped up with the same people for days at a time, are bad for you in this situation.
Whether or not Christianity, and Catholicism in particular, causes coronavirus epidemics, I am not yet sure. But yes, large scale religious conferences are off the agenda for a while. /sarc
Doom – ?
Great stuff Steven. This is a beautiful illustration of why all the Malthusian end of world forecasts of the last 3 centuries from Thomas Malthus himself, through Jevons and his end of industrial rev because of the lack of coal in the 19th C, Club of Rome, Ehrlich pop bomb and the burning up of planet earth in the offing from climate change of today are all totally wrong.
The limitless natural resources for all situations is human ingenuity. The precious few who solve whatever problems arise. This ingenuity is not possessed by those who entertain and/or write the books on looming catastrophes. Linear thinking is is at its pinnacle in these naive works whose ravings come from a petri dish view of the human enterprise and its resources. The answer to the Hansen’s, Bill McKibbens’s, Ehrlich’s, etc., what should be done, is that you folk need do nothing. If it’s a looming problem, it is or will be well taken care of.
I presume the WHO has strict and clear guidelines on accounting and reporting on all of this.
/sarc
We need to abandon this useless organisation. The EU seems about as useful as a back pocket on a shirt, too.
Spot on, Zig Zag.
“a back pocket on a shirt”
It’s useless, you can try to ignore it, but it’ll always be on your back !!
You can’t stop something that’s being deliberately spread.
The numbers speak for themselves.
http://protocriteria.com/index.php/2020/04/15/the-unusual-distribution-of-covid-19-2/
Dear Freedom Monger,
the low number of CV19 infections reported from less developed countries compared with infection rates in Europe and North America probably represents their lower reporting rates due to less developed health systems and government infrastructure.
If you really believe that Indonesia or Nigeria for instance have lower infection rates than the US or the UK feel free to seek refuge in those countries.
Oh, you’re right. That must be it.
FM – another possibility – the US & EU are addicted to cheap stuff from the overseas Supply Chain Gangs as demonstrated via their trade agreements, not to mention the US & EU have the wealth to buy more stuff – which correlates with more travel between supplier and their US & EU purchasers. I blame the US & EU as much as China.
It’s easy to check. Look at the number of tests that have been given in the two countries.
There is also the use of hydrocholoquine for malaria prevention as well to consider.
Or maybe Winnie the Pooh doesn’t think there’s any honey in Nigeria.
“The Total number of Cases and Case Fatality Rates remain higher in the “Caucasian World” than they are anywhere else. The numbers don’t lie.”
No, but statistics do. Australia and New Zealand seem to have been spared your Caucasian malaise, any theories?
“14% of the World’s population has over 77% of the Coronavirus cases”
14% of the World’s population is making 77% of the plane flights and 77% of the cruises too.
Loydo
A guess it was a fluke Australia didn’t get more cases.
Keys dates
25 January – chinese new year
25 – 27 January – Australia Day long weekend.
28 January – unofficial by nearly all schools – requirements on Chinese students to self isolate for 14 days(varied rules for each school)
29 January – most schools commenced term.
1 February – Chinese travel ban.
24 February to 2 March – most universities commence term ( or were supposed to)
Australia lucked out – more than 100,000 Chinese students were unable to come to Australia. If the virus timeline was two weeks later Australia would have had 1000s of potential covid 19 carriers all at once.
“a fluke Australia didn’t get more cases”
I agree, Australians have been very lucky to have dodged this bullet (so far). Blocking flights from the US and Europe early seems, in hindsight, to have been pretty effective too.
Or it could be the combination of Malaria drugs it being summer in most those countries and higher levels of infections in general making a stronger immune response. But India is the really stand out. Because there is reasonably strong testing going on there. It’s a weird mix of worst case third world and first rate medical systems in areas.
Sunshine apparently destroys virions. This possibility was pooh-poohed, but has just been pretty conclusively demonstrated.
. . . anecdotal data? Are human populations in the latitude range of the bats hit harder with CV-19? Northern-tier countries (except Sweden) and malaria-prone countries in warmer climates – not so much.
Recent clinical trials haven’t been kind to those who believe that hydrocholoquine is some kind of wonder drug.
If you really believe that Indonesia or Nigeria for instance have lower infection rates than the US or the UK feel free to seek refuge in those countries.
But surely their healthcare systems would be under pressure. They couldn’t hide that or the number of deaths very easily.
What health care systems?
Even in Italy they are finding that a lot of people in remote villages dying at home rather than travel to hospitals.
Here’s a COVID-19 distribution update:
http://protocriteria.com/index.php/2020/04/18/the-unusual-distribution-of-covid-19-3/
“You can’t stop something that’s being deliberately spread.” That’s the popular reason for it’s spread, but I pose a different reason: That it is spreading on the prevailing winds, which in the Northern hemisphere spreads out from the northern Asian areas. If that is the case, then NOTHING is ever going to ‘stop’ it from spreading all over the world!
The virus only lives a few hours in the air.
Thank you for this post. I would argue the available evidence suggests that government, as an institution, ought to be kept as small as possible in order to reduce by orders of magnitude the stupidity with which the funding taxpayer must reckon when dealing with elected (where applicable) politicians.
And I thought I was a moron.
Ditto, brother.
The “benefits” of big government are far outweighed by the costs. I can’t necessarily argue limited government is more effective. It sure costs less and does not impede our freedom as much.
The US Constitution limits government for a reason. We should follow it.
“Learn from Asia”….you must be getting lazy Mosh….there”s nothing to learn. This is one of those “just imagine” articles you have rehashed and apparently not read well. Not in use, prototype, soon to be in a theater near you stuff.
You are one of those unique people that always feels wherever you are, you are surrounded people that are smarter than the rest of the world.
To get you back to reality, just dust of your CV and read it multiple times….there you go, back to reality
UVC is being fast tracked by the FDA .
The science was published 2 years ago.
In use
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/05/buses-blasted-uv-light-rid-coronavirus-12352400/
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914722
https://www.photonics.com/Articles/COVID-19_Increases_Demand_for_Disinfecting_UVLEDs/a65629
now 99% effective
https://www.ledsmagazine.com/directory/led-packages/uv-ir-leds/press-release/14173253/seoul-semiconductor-seoul-viosys-and-setis-violeds-technology-proves-999-sterilization-of-coronavirus-covid19-in-30-seconds
Giving away the units for aircraft
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRXZjLk_4Hk
Great health solution. Now wait until all your plastics start breaking and falling apart.
Every cloud has a dark underbelly, eh Greg? Trip on back to ZeroHedge and leave us.
I’m convinced. Thanks!
SM is right, take a look this and you’ll see how and why SK were so successful. They were well organised, well prepared and wasted no time in acting – less than one month from their first case to the peak number.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=295s
Compare this to the response that of the worst hit country.
While I agree completely on the death rates data being of poor quality and it seems clear to me that this virus is more deadly than the flu but we don’t know how much by, the cases data seems fairly occluded. Testing regimes are far more variant and evolving than even the issues with the death rate data. For example here in the midwest of the USA, testing that was taking days and weeks is now measured in minutes, so the natural compression of those results would significantly skew the apparent data. Add to that they are testing more liberally here now, not just the worst symptomatic. Further anti-body testing is starting to show a much higher transmission rate than anyone expected; in a California county where they reported 1,000 confirmed cases they sampled suggested 50k-80k people in that county had already had the virus and recovered. We are also seeing data that very few people under 45 without any underlying conditions are dying, something like a total of 21 out of many thousand deaths in NYC. My speculation is that this virus is not nearly as significant as we first feared and that I believe in the US at least it will be remembered as an especially brutal flu season when our governments (understandably) over-reacted. Only time will tell. I am 53 with underlying conditions, so I am being reasonably careful, but I am reaching my lockdown limit here pretty quickly.
Cannot be compared to modern Flu because of inoculation. You have to compare to pre-innoculation data which is equally poor.
“a brutal flu season”
A gross understatement. Plus that was with a near universal lockdown and draconian isolation measures. How much more brutal might it have been without a lockdown? A million dead by now? two? and still rampaging unchecked through every town and city? More like a brutal Ebola season.
A million dead by now? two? and still rampaging unchecked through every town and city?
According to your models 😉
look at Japan. No lockdown there.
That information is outdated:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/16/835925031/japans-declares-nationwide-state-of-emergency-as-coronavirus-spreads
Japan Declares Nationwide State Of Emergency As Coronavirus Spreads
Ron, did you read that article you linked?
I did not find any mention of a lockdown. I read Abe declared a state of emergency.
Greg,
the state of emergency allows lockdowns. That is why local governments asked for it. Another reason is they can order non-essential workers to do home office whenever possible. Japanese have the strong tendency going to work even when they are sick and that is not beneficial at the moment especially in crowded public transport
Japanese companies have been also going in self-ordered lockdowns e.g. one big karaoke company closed their shops already three weeks ago. Context is important. Lockdown does not equal lockdown and also don’t give you a picture about peoples’ behavior.
In 2018, 3,177,294 people died from the “flu” world wide. SARS-CoV-2 has a long way to go to catch up. No one did a thing about the over 3 million dying in 2018, tell me just why are we going bat sh-t crazy about this virus?
I think 2017-18 Flu was a variant not included in the vaccine. Fortunately for the world it wasn’t a particularrly deadly variamt. But Western Goverments, like the UK didn’t invest in the health services. As a result the UK is in Lockdown “protecting the NHS”
According to the CDC, there were 61,000 confirmed influenza deaths in the 2017 -2018 flu season. We have no idea how many cold virus deaths there were that same year.
Why is that?
Klem
April 18, 2020 at 2:44 am
I simply guessing here. 🙂
But the answer to your question could be,
something like, that the efficient tracking and monitoring of the seasonal influenza and it’s curve consist in tracking and monitoring the most prevalent seasonal flu and it’s curve, where many different areas can have a different flu as the prevalent one, where that means that all different flu patients and deaths will not be strictly identified and classified accordingly to the actual influenza infection-disease.
COVID-19 is an influenza disease, the prevalent one for the present flu season… globally.
Very likely having the death numbers of other seasonal influenza diseases
effecting-influencing the COVID-19 severe and death case numbers.
Oh well, could be.
cheers
A quick “hit” on “number of deaths from influenza in 2017 shows 266,000
Pre-innoculation data is also pre-much modern medicine.
Health care in general has gotten much better in the decades since vaccinations became available.
A former head of the CDC was recently quoted as saying COVID-19 could be almost as deadly as the Spanish Flu. Back then, the best medical care was little more than attempting to keep the patients comfortable while they died.
The median age of deaths across Europe for Corona is 81 and mostly with an illness.
Flu rips through all ages, even healthy children. I would call flu more deadly.
Absolutely! Also — in the ISA it has been admitted that they are labeling deaths as Covid19 EVEN IF it was not the cause of death— I. E. The person with an already fatal illness happened to also get C19! The in ISA the DEATH nunbers are inflated!
Corona-chan is more deadly that Flu-chan in part (possibly a considerable part) because of iatrogenic factors that accelerate infection, and cause immune system destabilization and lung damage.
I fear that much of the lung damage and mortality is due to our misdiagnosis of ARS and inept use of inappropriate PEEP protocols.
iatrogenic , candidate for word of the year.
We will also need a similar word for those in charge ki11ing the economy.
Iatrogenesis is a difficult concept to grasp. Huge emotionally and conceptually difficult paradigm shift. I watched Stefan Molyneux starting to go through it with Shiva Ayyadurai on a video posted here yesterday.
But here a little, there a little… Here are my thoughts so far on Doc-chan:
Factor 1 – Iatrogenic increase of infection risk
* The SARS-2 virus, like the SARS-1 virus, infects lung cells via the ACE2 enzyme
* Increased ACE2 expression in lungs likely increases risk of severe lung infection
* ACE inhibitors (ACEi) prescribed for hypertension and some other conditions cause increased ACE2 expression in the lungs (because ACEi have no effect on ACE2)
* Ibuprofen also increases ACE2 expression
* As infection of lung cells increases, ACE2 expression decreases (causing its regulatory function to decrease)
Factor 2 – Iatrogenic increase of inflammatory cytokines by destabilization of ACE/ACE2 balance
* ACE and ACE2 counter-regulate each other to maintain system balance. ACE promotes inflammatory factors (cytokines); ACE2 promotes anti-inflammatory factors.
* ACEi-taking covid patients admitted to hospitals, at some point have their ACEi treatments stopped, which causes ACE to increase (ACEi half life is about 12 hours; virtually gone from system in about 3.5 days).
* So as ACE2 decreases (because of increasing infection) and ACE increases (because ACE inhibition is stopped), immune system goes wildly out of balance (cytokine storm).
Factor 3 – Iatrogenic increase of thrombosis risk
* ACEi meds decrease PAI-1 production
* PAI-1 inhibits tPA
* tPA breaks down blood clots
* When ACEi meds stop, PAI-1 increases causing increased inhibition of tPA, which increases risk of thrombosis
Factor 4 – Iatrogenic lung damage (ARDS) caused by wrong diagnosis and treatment protocol
* Based on information from China, covid patients are assumed to have acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
* Hospitals follow a protocol that stipulates putting ARDS patients on ventilators with high PEEP (pulmonary end expiry pressure) and low oxygen.
* However, astute doctors around the world have noticed that many covid patients do not have typical ARDS symptoms, and warn that intubating these patients with high PEEP may be causing the ARDS they are trying to treat.
What do ICU covid patients die of? Cytokine storms and pulmonary microvascular thromboses.
I might have to add to my list pulmonary vasoconstriction that causes pulmonary edema that causes hypoxemic diffusion. ACE promotes vasoconstriction and ACE2 promotes vasodilation. So plummeting ACE2 and increasing ACE would increase vasoconstriction.
Here’s one of the doctors who is thinking outside of the box.
https://twitter.com/cameronks/status/1251259213554335744
There is now evidence that the SARS-2 virus also acts on CD147 receptors. This is a dead end for the virus as there is no ensuing RNA replication, but has serious consequences for the usual T cell reaction and might also account for some of the erythrocyte accumulation.
I agree with your speculation that this virus is not nearly as significant as we first feared.
I have been checking Korean data from the beginning because their testing number was larger than any other country at earlier stages.
Confirmed cases as of yesterday were 10,613 representing 2% of total testing of 538,775 which I call infection ratio. Deceased number is 229 which is 2.2% of confirmed cases which is called infection mortality ratio and only 0.04% against total testing.
In my country, Japan, infection ratio and infection mortality ratio are 9.1% and 0.4%, respectively. As our death number per year is about 1 million or 90,000 a month with various causes, 178 mortality with allegedly claimed by corona virus during almost two months is not significant at all compared to 1,365 deaths by flu during February and March in 2019.
I found an interesting article about Italy.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus,” said Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to the Italian government on the crisis.
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he said.
http://archive.is/Ihzvh#selection-361.0-369.253
I read the CDC directive about the counting method. I thought that the US takes the similar counting system to Italian.
We don’t know mu h about this disease apart from the fact it kills people, mainly old people, of those mainly old people with health issues, of those predominantly males. Keeping old people together in homes is probably not a good idea.
We can’t compare to Flu because every autumn we inoculate vulnerable people, in lauding young with health issues, against the predicted winter flu variants.
I’d have thought the UK Civil Service would have been good at collecting data for the EU. They’ve always been jobsworths, reporting how well they’ve implemented regulations should be second nature.
Informative as always.
For all that real-time information and record keeping is truly abysmal, it is much, much better than anything we’ve had before. For example, the U.S. record of hospitalizations and deaths for the 2009-2010 H1N1 “Swine” flu epidemic wasn’t completely compiled and reported by CDC until 2019, and then total deaths were reported as the mean of a range of >8000 and <19,000 — basically, using forensics tools post facto, it was guess. This currency of data, alone, perhaps justifies Sweden's response. We must hope that it works out for them.
Not least the most novel of the many unprecedented parts of the current social-political experiment is the amount of data available, while we still have no systematic way of determining signal from noise, or of rating the competence of any given group of "sensors."
We should probably not also choose to ignore significant events and conditions that have occurred as data points in the course to our current state — it might turn out to be unwise to attempt to draw lessons from the success of South Korea when that densely populated nation has been within artillery range of its deadliest enemy and only land accessible neighbor for 70 years, and its minimal contact with mainland China was further restricted by an effective travel ban in sympathy for the Hong Kong protests. Similar conditions might also apply to the success of Taiwan. Certainly, with effectively no disease vectors, a fully competent civil defense system, and effective control of foreign access are extremely helpful in preventing a similar crisis, but very hard to maintain in a non-totalitarian society almost anywhere else on earth.
wisconsin.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/wisconsin
ok first a caveat about IHME.
1. it is NOT a mechanistic model. Its a curve fit ( think of the Gompertz model that Willis
introduced in one of his posts. ) It fits the death data from a few cities to project the death
data elsewhere. This approach ignores the Age structure in the sample data and the age structure
in the states you are projecting.
next. Wisconsin has peaked and yet they will have a lockdown until may 26
That’s pretty dumb
if Wisconsin came out of lockdown would not people in neighbouring states not flee there in order to escape to normality?
tonyb
That’s exactly the point why local solutions are not working in a free society. People will not stay in an endangered locked down area if they have another choice.
That they could spread the disease to other areas many people probably don’t care about, unfortunately.
See also UK. Peaked but locked down for another 21 days. Culpable imbecility, to paraphrase Milord.
Yes, I agree, very dumb decision in Wisconsin.
The simplest explanation for the decline in new cases is that they are approaching herd immunity, slowed by the lockdown enough to avoid overloading hospitals. This would imply that despite the major flaws of the Santa Clara study, they got close to the correct range on the ratio between total:confirmed cases, and it is at least 50:1. This still needs to be verified with a proper randomized representative sample.
Cities that have gone through a peak should be safe to begin relaxing the mitigation measures. Let the least vulnerable further build herd immunity but continue very strict protections for the vulnerable. Surveillance testing of nursing homes, medical personnel, and first responders.
It’s the places with high population density but who avoided any significant outbreak that need to be careful. If this thing isn’t seasonal, they could suddenly become the next metro New York.
If you’re right that the flaws of methodology in the Santa Clara study biased toward people who had mild symptoms and were curious to learn if they were immune, than a city like San Jose might have even lower than 1.5% immunity in their population.
+1
I live in WI
Schools are shut till the end of the school year and the Governor is in cahoots with some weird Midwest Governor’s brigade with MI at the head. UGH.
Lets just say that people here are pissed off and the Governor needs to tread carefully because when Wisconsinites unite, we get really, really, really loud and tend to go our own way.
Typo? In the United States, though, that growth is now about 5.5% compound every day.
In Canada, growth in cumulative deaths is 13% compound every day; in the United States, 11%.
Both US and Rep. Ireland have been flat for at least a week ( slight US down turn ) in terms of reported new cases. It seems that ECDC are excluding Cuomo’s attempt the scam the rest of the nation into giving him 50% more money than is due by including non tested cases.
If CofB is still getting a firm exponential growth for total cases in US and ” dangerously high at 13% compound every day” in Ireland he probably needs to re-examine his method.
In response to Mr Marler, the compound growth rates for confirmed cases and for deaths are different: hence the two graphs in the head posting.
The data are seven-day smoothed to iron out variabilities in reporting standards at weekends, and also random fluctuations in the data.
MRM, try again: In Ireland, growth in cumulative cases remains dangerously high at 13% compound every day. In the United States, though, that growth is now about 5.5% compound every day.
In Canada, growth in cumulative deaths is 13% compound every day; in the United States, 11%.
How I missed that in my first several readings I do not know, but after trying again I saw that the first US figure refers to cases, and the second US figure refers to deaths. My apologies to anyone who read my comment.
Results from sewage analyses – now being conducted by Sweden, Netherlands, U.S. and others – ALL point to the number of positive cases being a few orders of magnitude greater than the known cases, and multiple orders of magnitude more than deaths.
These bizarre but essential epidemiological surveys of sewage make it quite clear that 1) CV-19 is ubiquitious in our society by now, and 2) it is not erupting into full view because it is mild enough in the general population to “pass” beneath the radar with minor and even unnoticeable effects.
To my mind the author will never have sufficient data he needs to make proper policy decisions until he can get reliable samplings of people who’ve already been exposed. Perhaps with his connections he could round up enough antibody test strips to do an informal survey of WUWT readers, results to be shared online. Enough virology experts on this website to help formulate the survey questions.
I have no idea how costly or unmanageable such a project would be, but personally, I’d really like to have such a test before I head into an endodontist’s office next month.
I think the author is just acting as a “baggage handler” for the government in pushing the lock down is necessary.
Richard continues to be silly. Right from the start, I have pointed out that the daily benchmark test will help to show when lockdowns can be lifted. At present, it is too soon, and the plans of various governments for lifting lockdowns are either non-existent or inadequate.
Now that the lockdowns have achieved their primary purpose, preventing the hospitals from being altogether overwhelmed, more and more countries are cautiously lifting the restrictions.
“At present, it is too soon, and the plans of various governments for lifting lockdowns are either non-existent or inadequate.”
“…more and more countries are cautiously lifting the restrictions.”
Is it too much to ask, Christopher, that you’ll tell us which countries’ plans you consider adequate?
across Europe the info coming out indicates lock down was silly.
The inadequate record keeping in many countries and downright fraudulent records in some countries that come under the International Development Association (IDA) umbrella and those that come under the umbrella of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which are parts of the World Bank, is the main reason why funds cannot be released from US320 million Pandemic Bonds issued by the World Bank 2017.
The bonds’ principal write-down feature is dependent on a number of factors, including: the time since the start of the outbreak; the number of countries where cases have been confirmed; the number of cases within a 12-week rolling period; the number of deaths in countries within the IBRD and IDA categories; the ratio of confirmed cases to total cases; and the case growth rate.
China (an IDA country), of course is the main reason, but India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines all have infection rates likely in the hundreds of times more than their official numbers. So the bonds will almost certainly pay out their full capital values when they mature on July 15, 2020. The arbiter called on April 9 that the pandemic bond conditions have not been met. He has about six more opportunities to adjudicate on this but there seems little hope that conditions will ever be met. There was a lot of trading in these bonds prior to and just after WHO called the Pandemic on March 11. The Class B bonds that pay out 100% of their capital value had been discounted by the market to a fraction of their worth but were bought by some very “canny” individuals who are going to make small fortunes out of the inability of countries to properly account for the infections and deaths of their populations and the political manipulation of official numbers in other countries. This appears to be a disgusting case of moral hazard. I wonder if the names of the beneficial holders of these bonds will ever be released.
I am sure Christopher Monckton will be very interested in this bit of financial chicanery, which seems to have ended up with the opposite result of what was intended.
Brent has indeed raised a most interesting point. The fraud authorities will be watching the pandemic-bonds market with more than passing interest.
As I understand it, these are largely expat Chinese returning with the disease from visits to Russia and elsewhere, apparently hoping for some “state of the art” treatments at home.
Keep in mind Chinese were running multiple trials that included Hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir as early as January. They are the only country right now with a virtually flat trajectory… although Brunei, Trinidad, Cambodia and Antarctica seem to be doing pretty well.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/
I lived in China for 14 years. They are hypochondriacs. There were always ‘full lines’ in hospitals. All Covid related medical ‘stuff’ is currently free. I have friends in North-East China. I get my information from them and not MSM. I would take the information on Covid that you have with a grain or two of salt. I may be wrong. I just see that as Chinese people taking advantage of free medical.
I’m not sure I would use the term hypochondriac. Health is deeply embedded in Chinese culture. We can see it in the Daoist obsession with achieving immortality but the Daoists probably inherited that from preliterate culture. Hypochondria is a personality disorder. The Chinese concern with health, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be disordered in that it’s normal behavior in that culture.
Perhaps I used hypochondria incorrectly. My personal definition of hypochondria is people going to the doctor excessively. I wouldn’t like to count the number of students(mainly female) who would have a ‘fever’ and need to go to the hospital and end up with a drip-feed of saline. Around my apartment complex, there were easily 5 pharmacies. The Chinese love their medicine. I understand it’s a cultural thing. I’m not unobservant.
“I lived in China for 14 years. They are hypochondriacs. There were always ‘full lines’ in hospitals. ”
Part of the reason for that is that they don’t want to go to primary care providers and instead want to see specialists in hospitals for every little sniffle and cough.
I have read that patients are responsible for 50% of their hospital costs. Also that they pay for forced quarantines out of their own pockets.
They don’t have clinics and medical centres like the west. All medical services are in hospitals. It costs about 2 yuan to see a normal doctor. It cost about 6 yuan to see a specialist. I saw the head guy of some dept. and it cost me 50 yuan. The hospitals make their money on prescriptions that can end up being up to several hundred yuan. They do some things very well, like emoving a wart from near my ear and my wife had a melanoma removed on her neck. Can’t see the scar. My super duper specialist nearly killed me with overdosing me with iron. Apparently he thought I had ‘alcoholic anaemia’. Google never heard of it nor did the haematologist I have in Australia now. I had lymphoma but that’s another story. I could tell many amusing stories about the Chinese medical system. Basically, whatever you think a medical system should be, you won’t find in China.
As to medical expenses. Everyone working has medical insurance paid by their employer. It’s additional to wages. It’s normally about 80% refund for medical expenses. My friend in China who runs a cram school could not lay off her staff due to shutdowns, forbidden. She has to pay their wages and medical insurance even though she is not allowed to reopen at the moment. She had a baby end of January and sent me pictures of maternity cases in corridors. There was no connection to Covid. Overcrowding in hospitals is common in China.
In very old times in China, a doctor only was paid in case of successful cure or treatment.
to be logical and consistent two things need to happen
firstly consistency in reporting. The UK releases its hospital deaths because that has become the accepted norm. Most other countries do not release figures outside of hospitals either or do so inconsistently.
secondly the WHO have guidelines for recording deaths . Most countries the UK included use these WHO guidelines which say CV must be listed as a certifiable cause of death if present, even though the patient may have died WITH CV rather than OF CV.
So there are huge differences in the way that Countries do tests, assess results and count deaths. In Italy as you know the Health Authorities noted that some 12% of the deaths listed as those who died WITH the disease actually died OF it.
tonyb
Slightly OT but some interesting new genetic network research on the origin of covid19 from Cambridge University:
https://www.rt.com/news/486194-study-coronavirus-southern-china/
Here’s the PNAS paper:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117
Thanks!
Forster is a geneticist and Renfrew a famous archaeologist. Both have used pylogenetic network analysis to study the evolution of language.
It makes sense that the ChiCom virus originated in southern China, whence came previous flu epidemics. However, the bats used in Wuhan Institute research came from caves in Yunnan Province, on the border with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, so I’m not sure that this analysis can conclusively show lab hypotheses false.
RT of course would wish that to be the case.
The Nobel Laureate co-discoverer of HIV is sure that the virus was engineered.
I thought recording co-morbidity was very important.
It should be easy for western governments.
I’m sure it’s already a requirement for death certificates.
Most western countries have similar “top twenty” cause of deaths but slight differences in ranking.
Knowing which existing conditions are over represented as co-morbidity with coved 19 might give clues to its mechanism and who to focus precautionary measures on.
Same old, same old as in China- In the Uk you can put anything down on the death certificate
“In case you are keeping alive in your mind that the exaggerated number of Covid-19 deaths might be just an “error,” look at this:
In the US, a briefing note from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Service read as follows:
“It is important to emphasize that . . . Covid-19 should be reported for all decedents where the disease caused or is presumed to have caused or contributed to death.”
Updated April 3 to:
“In cases where a definite diagnosis of Covid-19 cannot be made, but is suspected or likely. . . it is acceptable to report Covid-19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a covid-19 infection was likely.” [This means in the absence of a test-positive]
IN BRITAIN National Health Service guidance for filling out death certificates:
“If before death patient had symptoms typical of covid19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘covid19’ as the cause of death, and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of their being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.”
Further, according to a NEW UK law the body need not be seen by a coroner. Any medical doctor can sign the cause of death, EVEN IF THEY HAVE NEVER SEEN THE BODY LIVING OR DEAD & THERE IS NO TEST. What can “clinical judgement” mean in this circumstance?”
Surely there will be a “hole” in the data of other causes of death.
Dementia and heart disease deaths shouldn’t disappear
The number of UK deaths for this time of year has doubled. What would you put that down to?
DATA link please…..
I don’t think so
AFAIK
Normal week 10-11,000
High week 14,000
Peak covid week 16,000.
Yes more deaths but not double.
A side speculation.
I speculate that countries such as Italy, Spain and uk will have less Dementia, heart disease, diabetes and hypertension deaths next year.
That isn’t correct as others have pointed out. The UK are pretty good with mortality stats and currently have up to the week ending 3rd April. I can’t find equivalent stats for other countries. Stats here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Latest summary
“Main points from latest release
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.
Of the deaths registered in Week 14, 3,475 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which was 21.2% of all deaths; this compares with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in Week 13.”
As there aren’t really any other likely causes I would go for about 6000 Covid-19 deaths that week compared to the official 3500 number.
That’s Habeas Corpus down the tubes and with it the Corpus of Western law.
Every body must be examined by two doctors, one of which must be the listed doctor for that dead patient. If there is any abnormality the body must be autopsied. Relatives of any person who dies in an English hospital can request an autopsy.
Same old , same old as in China-
“IN MINNESOTA a State Congressman-Doctor received a seven-page document from the Department of Health giving instructions on filling out the death certificate:
Basically, it said “you do NOT have to have a confirmed laboratory test for Covid-19 in order to make the death certificate be Covid-19.”
The interviewer asks why doctors are being told to enter unproven assumptions on death certificates, and the doctor answers:
“Well, fear is a good way to control people. Sometimes people’s ability to think for themselves is paralyzed if they’re frightened enough.”
Here is a perfect example of a death being counted as c19 that 100% should not be. According to that article it WILL be counted as a c19 death. Undiagnosed and untreated ketoacidosis will kill you every time.
https://www.summitdaily.com/news/covid-19-was-not-the-primary-cause-of-death-for-silverthorne-man/
Italy-
“Prof Walter Ricciardi, advisor to Italy’s health minister, explained this was caused by the “generous” way the Italian government handles death certificates:
The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
Essentially, Italy’s death registration process does not differentiate between those who simply have the virus in their body, and those who are actually killed by it’
Same old, same old-
“In fact, rather than learning from Italy’s example, other countries are not only repeating these mistakes but going even further.
In Germany, for example, though overall deaths and case-fatality ratio are far lower than Italy’s, their public health agency is still engaging in similar practice.
On March 20th the President of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute confirmed that Germany counts any deceased person who was infected with coronavirus as a Covid19 death, whether or not it actually caused death”
Hit by a truck, alcohol poisoning, “bounced” in a skydiving accident:
Official Cause of Death – Covid-19!
Most of the Covid-19 stats are unreliable nonsense.
Iceland has the best data and indicates that Covid-19 is not that serious an illness, except for the high-risk group – the elderly and the immune-compromised.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/10/but-is-the-growth-of-the-pandemic-really-exponential/#comment-2964734
[excerpt]
“I believe this UK Covid-19 estimated mortality range “between 0.5% and 1%” (deaths/infections) is ~correct for a typical country’s population distribution , and my hunch is “closer to 0.5%” – that is not very scary except if you are in the “high risk” group – over 65 years of age or otherwise high-risk (with other medical problems) – Covid-19 deaths are heavily concentrated in the high-risk group.”
One large hospital in Calgary has only 2 Covid-19 patients – the hospital is almost empty, cleared out awaiting the “tsunami” of patients who never arrived.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-the-chinese-virus-lockdowns-that-have-done-their-job/#comment-2965819
Here in Alberta, the Covid-19 lock-down has resulted a debacle.
Most of our deaths are in nursing homes – our policy seems to be “Lockdown the low-risk majority but fail to adequately protect the most vulnerable.”
The global data for Covid-19 suggests that deaths/infections will total 0.5% or less – not that scary – but much higher and clearly dangerous for the high-risk group – those over-65 or with serious existing health problems.
“Elective” surgeries were cancelled about mid-March, in order to make space available for the “tsunami” of Covid-19 cases that never happened. Operating rooms are empty and medical facilities and medical teams are severely underutilized. The backlog of surgeries will only be cleared with extraordinary effort by medical teams, and the cooperation of patients who die awaiting surgery – patients who were too impatient…
This may look like 20:20 hindsight, but I called it this way in ~mid-March.
Regards, Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/10/but-is-the-growth-of-the-pandemic-really-exponential/#comment-2964810
[excerpt]
BAD CALL – END THE LOCKDOWNS ASAP.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
“The UK government’s scientific advisers believe that the chances of dying from a coronavirus infection are between 0.5% and 1%.”
I believe this Covid-19 estimated mortality range “between 0.5% and 1%” (deaths/infections) is ~correct for a typical country’s population distribution , and my hunch is “closer to 0.5%” – that is not very scary except if you are in the “high risk” group – over 65 years of age or otherwise high-risk (with other medical problems) – Covid-19 deaths are heavily concentrated in the high-risk group.
I still think my ~mid-March assessment of this situation was the correct one:
“Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.
If tests prove positive, use chloroquine and remdesivir or other cheap available drugs ASAP as appropriate.”
With rare exceptions, we have not seen the “tsunami of cases overwhelm our medical systems”, and we have trashed our economies and severely harmed hundreds of millions worldwide who live from paycheck to paycheck. Considering the pro’s and con’s, the full lockdown was a bad call.
Regards, Allan
https://rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/21/end-the-american-lockdown/comment-page-1/#comment-12253
[excerpt- posted 21Mar2020]
This full-lockdown scenario is especially hurting service sector businesses and their minimum-wage employees – young people are telling me they are “financially under the bus”. The young are being destroyed to protect us over-65’s. A far better solution is to get them back to work and let us oldies keep our distance, and get “herd immunity” established ASAP – in months not years. Then we will all be safe again.
Dead and buried for twenty years. Dig up grave. Re-determine cause of death as COVID-19. This is the phenomenon of “back infection”, caused by the “scared house effect” (SHE).
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/10/but-is-the-growth-of-the-pandemic-really-exponential/#comment-2964734
Iceland data here:
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/icelands-coronavirus-testing-global-pandemic-response/
Updated every day at 13:00
COVID-19 in Iceland – Statistics
– Information on this page is obtained from the database at midnight.
Total figures to 10Apr2020
841 in isolation
36 hospitalised
10 intensive care
1.689 confirmed infections
15.498 quarantine completed
841 recovered
3.080 in quarantine
34.635 samples
Of those diagnosed with COVID-19, eight have died. All but one death were people over 60.
GATHERING BAN
Icelandic authorities have banned gatherings of over 20 people from March 24 until May 4. Grocery stores and pharmacies may still allow up to 100 people inside at once, provided space allows for a 2-metre distance between individuals.
Authorities ordered the closure of swimming pools, gyms, bars, clubs, slot machines, and museums as of midnight on March 23. Operations and services that require close contact between individuals or risk close contact are also prohibited. This includes sports clubs, hairdressers, beauty salons, and massage parlours.
All stores, public buildings, and other frequented indoor spaces must be cleaned as often as possible. Hand sanitizer must be available at all entrances and in more frequented spaces such as checkouts in stores.
Universities and junior colleges (menntaskólar) are closed during this period, while PRIMARY SCHOOLS AND PRESCHOOLS REMAIN OPEN, but are subject to stricter measures, including limiting class sizes and maintaining space between students. These measures mean limited services and hours in many primary schools and preschools.
Gatherings smaller than 20 individuals are also subject to strict guidelines, primarily ensuring that there are two metres of space between attendees. Workplaces and institutions are charged with applying and enforcing the regulation themselves.
The measures do not affect international airports, ports, planes or ships.
__________________________
Iceland Total Tests to 10Apr2020 ~34,602
Population of Iceland 341,250
Total Tests/Population 10.1%
Cumulative number of total confirmed cases (total active cases + recovered cases) is increasing but decelerating (flattening).
Containment is strong except PRIMARY SCHOOLS AND PRESCHOOLS (aka the Plague Wards) REMAIN OPEN.
8 deaths/1.689 confirmed infections = 0.47% – this 0.5% will probably increase, but is still much lower than the 2% mortality elsewhere – this may be a function of the early stage of the illness in Iceland, but could also reflect other factors.
It would be helpful to learn what medical treatments are being applied to patients in Iceland, if in fact they are experiencing lower mortality rates than other countries.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-the-chinese-virus-lockdowns-that-have-done-their-job/#comment-2965794
AUSTRIA ESTIMATED ~~140,000 TOTAL COVID-19 INFECTIONS 384 DEATHS DEATHS/TOTAL INFECTIONS = ~0.27%
The study suggested that the estimated number of infections within Austria to be on average around 9 times higher than the recorded number of infections.
… the number of asymptomatic individuals within the Austrian population is y an order of magnitude higher than are being detected by the targeted SARS-CoV-2 testing.
In Italia provincia di Brescia, uno dei focolai più attivi del COVID19 , risulta che (dati pubblicati dal Giornale di Brescia) su un campione di 431.000 abitanti complessivi (84 comuni della provincia di Brescia), confrontando i decessi medi negli ultimi anni rispetto a marzo 2020. sono decedute 1331 persone rispetto a sole 309 di media. Di questi decessi solo 466 sono stati riconosciuti COVID19. La differenza è data dal fatto che molte persone non sono morte in ospedale , ma a casa loro o, peggio nelle case di riposo per anziani. In base a questi numeri è plausibile pensare che gli infetti nel solo marzo 2020 siano compresi tra 60. 000 e 300.000 sugli abitanti dell’intera provincia di Brescia (1.100.000 abitanti). Si stima che in Italia i contagiati da COVID19 siano stati per ora 2,5 milioni su una popolazione di 60 milioni. Fonte https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2020/04/16/coronavirus-lo-studio-gli-italiani-contagiati-sono-circa-25-milioni-sicilia-e-basilicata-tasso-di-infezione-dello-035-lombardia-133/5772118/
Same old , same old-
“Northern Ireland’s HSC Public Health Agency is releasing weekly surveillance bulletins on the pandemic, in those reports they define a “Covid19 death” as:
individuals who have died within 28 days of first positive result, whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of death”
“ implying that in the UK the deaths from this dangerous pathogen are already approaching 22,000.”; the use of FROM is incorrect it should be “WITH”, as everyone admitted to hospital is tested for the virus. If this test is positive then CoViD19 HAS to appear on the death certificate as it is a notifiable disease, this is irrespective of whether the death was directly attributable to the virus or not. As there are no autopsies or coroner inquests, despite CoViD19 being notifiable, then the true cause of death cannot be established.
As residents in care homes, nursing homes or residential homes are not tested the actual number is skewed anyway as it depends on the decision of the certifying physician or if the resident had been discharged from hospital after testing positive. There is also the possibility that a person has been discharged prematurely.
Finally, in the U.K. a death certificate cannot have “old age” as a reason, typically they would show MI or CVA, particularly if the patient died in hospital.
So it’s just a co-incidence that we have twice the number of deaths than normal? Ok, some of those are heart attack and stroke victims who were too scared to go to hospital but that’s a side effect of covid19 too. They may have died in hospital after catching the virus there anyway.
Would you mind sourcing your claim of “twice the number”?
Thank
As already pointed out, just look at the ONS weekly stats linked further up the thread. For the week ending 3rd April there were about 16000 deaths which was about 6000 more than the average for that week. So notably higher but not double.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/17/care-homes-and-covid19
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/06/covid-with-of-or-because-of/
This whole discussion is akin to studying a Rembrandt, painting concentrating on only the bottom one square inch of the canvas. It is what we are not seeing that provides the complete picture.
Until a reliable antibody test is available, which currently does not exist, the debate is hopeless.
We have no idea what the background rate of infection actually is.
Until we know the total number of those who have contracted the virus and can compare that number with the number who have died, it is all speculation as to whether Covid 19 virus is more of less significant than a bad flu/cold year.
The situation vis Covid 19 is made even more confusing when you realise, the reported numbers for Covid 19 include virtually any flu/cold virus sufferer that dies.
We need accurate data.
“Until a reliable antibody test is available, which currently does not exist, the debate is hopeless.”
And a body has general antibody reaction and about 4 weeks later inflection get specific antibody for the virus.
San Marino has 1,149 deaths per million
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Probably should do an antibody test in San Marino.
My question: Does the increase in ionizing radiation during very low solar activity (I remind you that neutrons are measured at the surface) affect the increase in the number of mutations in the natural world?
https://sol.spacenvironment.net/nairas/Dose_Rates.html