Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
JDN
That line form Sallust
“..to hide one thing in their heart and have something else ready on their tongue”
Such a fantastic and emotive way to put it. You can almost sense the fear and insecurity behind the image it conjures.
The hotels in the disappearing Maldives do not appear to be overly-concerned by the water lapping on their door-steps!
http://www.slh.com/destinations/indian-ocean/maldives/hotels/
Mike says:
April 16, 2011 at 1:37 am
I have two points to make.First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.
Second, research by the International Institute for Environment and Development in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania found no evidence that environmental degradation linked to climate change would result in large flows of international migrants.
—————————————————————————
God Mike – this is a pretty desperate statement. 50m people migrating from disaster areas is kinda noticeable – even to people as blinkered as you seem to be.
Douglas
they left one important statement out the 50000000 where not fleeing global warming they where being shot at and being bombed
GRID-Arendal certainly looks like UN to any casual visitor;
http://www.grida.no/
If you click About, look at the picture. Now you understand?
Hopefully their offices are in the upper floors. Otherwise, I am sure they have their lifewests ready in case of an abrubt sea-level rise?
I see they have links to lots of UN sponsored reports, books, whatever.
Understandably I did not find this one;
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf
Great comeback.
Climate has always changed for millions of years. Whats your point?
Over at an un-skeptical forum this disappearing has got them rattled.
“Oh, great. A few conservative blogs picked this up, and now the graphic is down the memory hole. My original link is now dead, and a search comes up empty.”
http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=7089213
On a thread titled “50 million climate change refugees by 2010”.
Too funny.
A few points:
Here is a report rubbishing this nonsense up until the year 2050!
http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10590IIED.pdf
Get ready for more moving of goalposts as their predictions fail to materialise. Al Gore has already moved his goalposts for an ice-free Arctic by 2013 – an unlikely prospect. Get ready for Mark Serreze to move his death spiral. This nonsense is turning out to be a cat-and-mouse-game as they desperately struggle with observations.
For Warmists who are concerned about coral island atolls sinking please calm down as there is no observed acceleration in the rate of sea level rise. Furthermore read how these islands have actually risen in the face of observed sea level rise.
Bangladesh has gained landmass since 1943.
Excellent entry Anthony.
Even the BBC know the islands, Tuvalu, etc are not sinking…
BBC: Low-lying Pacific islands ‘growing not sinking’ – 3 June 2010 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679
new geological study has shown that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking.
The islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia are among those which have grown, because of coral debris and sediment.
One of the authors of the study, featured in the magazine the New Scientist, predicts that the islands will still be there in 100 years’ time.
However he says it is not clear whether many of them will be inhabitable.
Prognosis ‘incorrect’
In recent times, the inhabitants of many low-lying Pacific islands have come to fear their homelands being wiped off the map because of rising sea levels.
But this study of 27 islands over the last 60 years suggests that most have remained stable, while some have actually grown.
Using historical photographs and satellite imaging, the geologists found that 80% of the islands had either remained the same or got larger – in some cases, dramatically so.
They say it is due to the build-up of coral debris and sediment, and to land reclamation.
Associate Professor Paul Kench of Auckland University, who took part in the study, published in the journal Global and Planetary Change, says the islands are not in immediate danger of extinction.
“That rather gloomy prognosis for these nations is incorrect,” he said.
On the comments at the article someone pointed to the ‘original’ source of the claim.
This is the result of excessive climate change research funding
Article in the Guardian back in 2005 on the UN Report
“Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade, experts warn today. Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn, said creeping environmental deterioration already displaced up to 10 million people a year, and the situation would get worse”.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/oct/12/naturaldisasters.climatechange1
Cold Lynx: The answer to your question is pretty simple. AGW gives governments and groups like the UN more money and most importantly more power. AGW also gives certain global groups the opportunity to impose their sick ideologies onto everyone in the world.
Dude, that map is so un-cool. It has “coastlines particularly under threat by extreme weather and greater surf” with a graphic that’s supposed to match up on the map where they are. But I can’t see anywhere on the map that matches the graphic. Where can I find the greater surf?
Aside from the humour of this present instance, shouldn’t we begin to worry about a couple of things?
The willingness of authorities to delete (or at least attempt to) inconvenient data at the drop of a hat; other ‘questionable’ data may be quietly disappearing before coming to the attention of AW’s beady eye.
Now that Google is apparently becoming openly AGW partisan, suppose they join in this game? – I’ve no evidence they would, but then I had no reason to suspect sharp practice elsewhere either (except Email FOI requests, of course).
Then there’s Donna F’s recent blog about Facebook blocking sceptic websites.
It seems to me that there are not many rules observed by the AGW camp, over and above the routine smears.
Mike says: “First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.”
I guessing Mike you might be taking a slightly different tone had the censuses data showed any decline…
Hilarious!
These guys must hate Anthony the way cockroaches hate a bright light.
This article has disappeared:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/developmental-issues/50-million-environmental-refugees-by-2020-experts-say/articleshow/7544408.cms
Google cache has it here:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?hl=en&q=cache:GuYIYcixkcAJ:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/developmental-issues/50-million-environmental-refugees-by-2020-experts-say/articleshow/7544408.cms
It was the Maldives. Here are some inconvenient points concerning the Maldives.
They are planning a new airport (where do they get the building materials?)
Non-climate related factors that can lead to sea water inundation, intrusion and erosion:
Sand mining and gravel extraction for the construction industry
Blasting boat passages
Impacts of recreational divers
Unsustainable over-extraction of fresh water from the lens
Over fishing of beaked fish which create sand which is vital for island formation
“Let me summarize a few facts.”
Maybe they should start small; can they point to at least one “climate refugee”? And, would this “climate refugee” happen to be seeking “reparations”?
I’m considering becoming a “climate refugee”. At the moment I’m considering my choice of warmer places 😉
Anthony:
Great work…however, please don’t use “disappeared” and “rubbished” as verbs…makes this old man cringe…
The claim that ‘the UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees’ is unsubstantiated. I am not able to identify any arguments in this blog post that supports the claim. (Imaginative, but unfounded, conspiracy theories concerning UNEP do not appeal to me; I prefer real arguments). What is the relevance of national censuses in small island states? Undoubtedly, natural disasters and environmental deterioration displaced people in 2010. This is true even if the refugees did not cross a national border.
I wonder, how many people in Africa and Asia had to flee from untenable environmental conditions in 2010? I would not be surprised if 50 million climate refugees by 2010 is a gross underestimate.
Just watch
It will be said that the first 2010 figure was a ‘typo’, mistaking 2100 to be 2010. (just as the Himalayan glacier figure supposedly was a typo, printing 2035 instead of 2350, according to famous scienctist Spencer Weart).
New research has shown this figure to be closer to 2050.
And therefore, it is worse than we thought.
The idea of a sixty-second general assembly seemed very attractive until i saw the hyphen. damned hyphen.