Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
Bravo!!
I am sick of manmade global warming. It has always been about money. And some will sacrifice morals because of their love of money. Manmade global warming has made some people rich. No matter to them that people have starved to death in the process.
“For the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil.”
Another subtle admission that this is not science. In science it’s OK to be wrong. There’s no need to sweep your mistakes under the rug.
Did you say 50,000,000 people or 50,000,000 hits?
/sarc
I still think the “50 million climate refugees by 2010” author, editor, or authority responsible should be identified. Maybe he/she/they really meant 5,000 by 2100 or some such set of numbers. As written, it was and is just silly. Typical for the UN, though. The USA’s contribution to the UN helps fund this nonsense.
Dang! I was going to open a lemonade stand in my backyard to serve the miles-long string of climate refugees that were going to be trudging by. I mean, what could go wrong with a business plan like that?
The I pee, si! si! said it would happen last year and I haven’t sold the first glass of lemonade. I want my money back. After all, for the amount of money that’s been paid in I should at least get some accurate information to act on, right?
(hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Dream on, H.R.)
can someone please post the original source of the UN prediction? Something that unquestionably links the prediction to the UN.
thx
The ‘Way Back Machine’ is also a good way of keeping track of those with a propensity for Orwellian cover up:
http://replay.waybackmachine.org/20090217054716/http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
Ok – this is off topic – but I’ll include the link anyway…for some Friday giggles:
http://youtu.be/wyrFWbGiGOc
Too good …
w.
I wonder how many of those small islands have “disappeared completely”.
Thank you so much. After climategate and countless other U.N. debunkings such as this one, I can’t believe the alarmists are still so influential.
Has anyone else noticed that Zimbabwe signed onto Kyoto in 2009. Seeing as how Mugabe has destroyed that economy (thereby reducing CO2 production) he now stands to gain millions via Kyoto.
There really are millions of climate refugees you know. Thet have fled the Midwest and Northeast and now live in places like Florida and Arizona.
Does it include the numbers of people, mainly retired oldies, who move to Florida, Queensland and various Mediterranean warm spots? there’s got to be quite a few tens of millions of Climate refugees right there.
I have also saved a copy…knowing how Google has been notorious for holding real science in contempt…and wishing ill on skeptics. Make it go viral!
“In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010.”
Oh. I see the problem. Just some bad editing. Probably some intern did it. Should read:
In 2005, the United Nations predicted that it will create 50 million refugees by 2010.
So they did get the date wrong but they are still trying… so please, cut them some slack. They are not that organized and those lose stuff and if you stress them out they could have a nervous breakdown or suffer from reduced self esteem.
Check the map. It says we will be subjected to more Hurrricanes which I think are a level more deadly than normal hurricanes.
Also can they tell us which small islands have disappeared completely?
Thank Gavin Atkins
I guess Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren must have been consulted by Achim Steiner from UNEP in order to concoct this amazing prediction.
The incredible thing is how these people from UNEP are able to contribute every extreme weather event to “climate change”, meaning human caused global warming and no journalists ever seam to ask any basic questions about this supposed relationship.
And they are our unelected representatives or “expert” via the UN system!
Just noticed something about that map… the alleged area that will be exposed to desertification and drought in North America has an absolutely impossible ‘prediction’ showing a strip of that crossing the Rockies and apparently following the Columbia River, more or less.
Seriously, that must simply be made up… These kids need new coloring books, or better coloring lessons.
Anyhow, thanks for saving this Anthony. You do care about the children!
ZT says:
April 15, 2011 at 6:22 pm
Ok – this is off topic – but I’ll include the link anyway…for some Friday giggles
==========
THAT was funny. Thanks.
RE:
ZT says:
April 15, 2011 at 6:22 pm
The ‘Way Back Machine’ is also a good way of keeping track of those with a propensity for Orwellian cover up:
I was there. Could not get it.
Marcia
“It’s all about the money…” A good title for a climate book.
I just noticed that the Queen Charlotte Islands are located in “Arctic areas vulnerable to ice and permafrost melting”…not only is the map and its doomy prediction wrong, the last time I heard about the QCI they were a lush temperate rain forest…so, apparently, global cooling must have been expected by 2010. Whoopsy-daisy!
I read Gavins blog and one of the replies is from Nick Nuttall who denies the UN ever said any such thing. Who ya’ gonna believe, Nickie or your lying eyes?
#
…] happened to the climate refugees? What happened to the climate refugees? […]
#
Nick Nuttall
Dear Gavin, I read with interest your bog not least as Spokesperson for the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
I have trawled through our records and cannot spot UNEP havng made such a statement about numbers of climate refugees by 2010.
I suspect that there is a measure of misunderstanding here linked to that ‘handy map’ to which you refer.
UNEP has a centre in Arendal, Norway called Grid Arendal tht produces graphics and maps for publications. Some of the graphic artists have a long standing relationship with Le Monde Diplomatique, a French publication, and were asked to produce a graphic basedon various scientific papers (sourced on that ‘handy map’).
GRID Arendal archive/have a library of graphics and the one you refer to is archived there.
So the top and bottom is that the figure of 50 million refugees is actually not ours.
That does not mean there are not environmental refugees including climate ones. But we do not have any projections ourselves.
There are however quite a lot of universities/research centres around the world trying to unravel his complex issue.
Given your interest in the subject you might like to go to for example to the Refugee Studies Centre at the University of Oxford or the site of the International Displacement Monitoring Centre.
Regards, Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson, Nairobi, Kenya
The map legend says that some small islands ‘will disappear completely.’ So, how many islands have we lost?
The map also says that ‘the effect of climate changes [in producing refugees] comes on top of poverty and war.’ Isn’t this a sort of nonsense statement? Does the movement of refugees from a war/genocide zone change measurably because of a (debatable) 1 degree difference in air temperature?
Are we really surprised? I made a pdf-print of the UN website early April and also downloaded the full map! This is just too ironic to be true – or maybe just sad. Great stuff though Anthony to pick this up!