Tag Archives: Climate model

The Lewis and Crok exposition – Climate less sensitive to Carbon Dioxide than most models suggest

Full papers plus additional comments from co-author Nic Lewis follow. I have added some relevant diagrams and tables from the report, plus reproduced the foreword by Dr. Judith Curry as well as updated the summary Equilibrium Climate Response Graph originally … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 106 Comments

Global Warming is REAL but NOT a Big DEAL

Guest essay by Dr. Ira Glickstein We’ve reached a turning point where it is hard for any Global Warming Alarmist to claim (with a straight face) that the world as we know it is about to end in the coming … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Ira | Tagged | 324 Comments

Climate Craziness of the Week: only the ‘cooler’ models are wrong – the rest say 4ºC of warming by 2100

From the University of New South Wales and Dr. Steven Sherwood: “Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect,” said Sherwood. “But what we are finding … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Craziness of the Week, Climate sensitivity, clouds | Tagged , , , , , , | 168 Comments

On the Futility of Long-Range Numerical Climate Prediction

Note: two events at AGU13 this morning dovetail in with this essay. The first, a slide from Dr. Judith Lean which says: “There are no operational forecasts of global climate change”. The second was a tweet by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 265 Comments

From 90% to 95% confidence level: How IPCC claims can be at the same time consistent and absurd.

We have been expecting too much from the IPCC about its confidence level increase: the explanation may actually be simple… and surprising. Guest essay by Stephane Rogeau Image: From IPCC FAQs Many people are wondering what actually made the IPCC … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , , , , , | 95 Comments

Climate models – worse than we thought

Observations Now Inconsistent with Climate Model Predictions for 25 (going on 35) Years By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels Question: How long will the fantasy that climate models are reliable indicators of the earth’s climate evolution persist … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 76 Comments

A Sea Change for Climate Science?

By David Stockwell writing in Quadrant Online As CO2 climate models falter and even the IPCC backs off its estimates, it just may be that a radical shift in thinking is looming. Wouldn’t it be funny if it was the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 127 Comments

Quite possibly the world’s dumbest Kickstarter project for climate

God help us. These “artistes” write: The scientific community can meet us in December when we bring the calendar to the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. This is the world’s largest gathering of Earth and space scientists: 20,000 of them … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , , | 104 Comments

Epic Failure of the Canadian Climate Model

Guest Essay by: Ken Gregory The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis located at the University of Victoria in British Columbia submitted five runs of its climate model CanESM2 for use in the fifth assessment report of the International … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Modeling | Tagged , | 143 Comments

90 climate model projectons versus reality

Reality wins, it seems. Dr Roy Spencer writes: As seen in the following graphic, over the period of the satellite record (1979-2012), both the surface and satellite observations produce linear temperature trends which are below 87 of the 90 climate … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 103 Comments

New Book by Bob Tisdale: “Climate Models Fail”

THANK YOU Many thanks to everyone who has purchased a copy of Climate Models Fail — and to those who are considering it.  And thank you, Anthony, for posting this here at WUWT! I’ve added an update to the end … Continue reading

Posted in Book Review | Tagged , , , , , , | 60 Comments

Gatekeeping at Geophysical Research Letters

Dr. Judith Curry writes: As the IPCC struggles with its inconvenient truth – the pause and the growing discrepancy between models and observations – the obvious question is: why is the IPCC just starting to grapple with this issue now, … Continue reading

Posted in Peer review | Tagged , , , , , , , | 125 Comments

Uh, oh. It’s models all the way down

Dr. Judith Curry lets an announcement slip in comments.

Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , | 106 Comments

Hump Day Hilarity – looks like a tipping point to me

This bit of humor is courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer, who made it a lead in for his recent blog post: A climate modeler increasing his model’s sensitivity.

Posted in Humor, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling, Satire | Tagged , , , , , | 73 Comments

Lomborg: climate models are running way too hot

Guest essay by Bjørn Lomborg The current climate models are running way too hot. Over the past 30 years, they are at least predicting 71% too much heat. Maybe 159%. (see graph)

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , | 125 Comments

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still ‘decades away’ from being useful

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 114 Comments

Statistical proof of ‘the pause’ – Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

Commentary from Nature Climate Change, by John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett, & Francis W. Zwiers Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 348 Comments

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Uncertainty | Tagged , , , | 281 Comments

Quote of the week – on the usefulness of climate models

From Dr. Judith Curry:

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 98 Comments

Quote of the week – Nature on the failure of climate models

From the world of Claimatology™, comes this smackdown from Nature.

Posted in Climate News, Modeling, Quote of the Week | Tagged , , , , | 153 Comments

Models Fail: Scandinavian Land Surface Air Temperature Anomalies

UPDATE: I’ve added a comment by Marcel Crok to the end of the post. #### The climate models being used by the IPCC for their upcoming 5th Assessment Report show little skill at being able to simulate a number of … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 39 Comments

Comparing Climate Models – Part Two

Guest Essay by Geoffrey H Sherrington See Part One of June 20th at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/20/comparing-climate-models-part-one/ In Part One, there was a challenge to find missing values for a graph that vaguely resembled the spaghetti graph of comparisons of GCMs. Here is … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 38 Comments

Eos: let’s get the bankers and the climate modelers talking, but will the bankers be too realistic?

From Eos June 11, 2013, PAGE 215, comes a recommendation that the finance community and climate scientists work together. One wonders though, if people in the results driven financial world will soon realize that the climate models just aren’t performing, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Opinion | Tagged , | 52 Comments

Leveraging a Changing Climate: Recent advances in understanding how Species cope with Changing Conditions.

Guest essay by Daniel Bourke Introduction The concept of climate change has become a controversial one. By that it is not meant to be said that the happening of climate change is controversial in and of itself, but that it … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change, Environment | Tagged , , , , , , , | 25 Comments

More climate models FAIL – A chink in the armor at Science?

People send me stuff. Lance Wallace writes: Anthony, this short “Perspectives” report in Science seems to me to be worthy of a posting in WUWT. Not only is it a very clear indication of crucial problems with the GCMs, it … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 137 Comments

Climate modeling EPIC FAIL – Spencer: ‘the day of reckoning has arrived’

I was aware of this story yesterday, but I didn’t like the original plot, (see at the end of this post) since use of straight line linear trends doesn’t accurately reflect the reality of the observation data. While it is … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Climate FAIL, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 163 Comments

Anti-information in climate models

Climate History: Cato Boffins Discovered “Anti-information” By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger While doing some historical studies in preparation for an article in Cato’s Regulation magazine, we found that we  once discovered the information equivalent of antimatter, … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 60 Comments

Are regional models ready for prime time?

Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we  made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value of regional climate models. We have three excellent participants joining … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Climate models getting worse than we thought

New paper finds climate models are getting worse rather than better Via the Hockey Schtick: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the latest climate models are performing even worse than the earlier generations of climate models … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 80 Comments

Climate models fail to ‘predict’ US droughts

Story submitted by WUWT reader “Clyde” Simulations identify past megadroughts, but at wrong times. “This would be a fine country if it only had water,” observes a settler looking at the barren west Texas plains. “So would Hell,” replies a … Continue reading

Posted in Drought, Weather | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

A compilation of lower climate sensitivities, plus a new one

Still Another Low Climate Sensitivity Estimate Guest post By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 60 Comments

Michael Mann says climate models cannot explain the Medieval Warming Period – I say they can’t even explain the present

Ice core data shows CO2 levels changed less than 10 parts per million from 1600-1800 during the MWP. From the Hockey Schtick:  A new paper from Schurer et al (with Mann as co-author) finds that climate “models cannot explain the warm … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC AR5 leak, MedievalWarmPeriod, Michael E. Mann, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 113 Comments

Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Guest post by Dr. Norman Page 1. Methods and Premises My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this site (http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com)  notably: 6/18/10 Thirty Year Climate Forecast 7/19/12 30 … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , | 71 Comments

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

IPCC Chapter 11 – Bankruptcy Protection

Guest post by David M. Hoffer IPCC reports AR1 through 4 were published in relative obscurity. ClimateGate and the emergence of the blogosphere as the primary forum for debate of the science and public policy intersection changed all that. AR4 … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , , | 97 Comments