Tag Archives: Climate model

Are regional models ready for prime time?

Posted on May 18, 2013 by

Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we  made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value of regional climate models. We have three excellent participants joining … Continue reading →

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Posted in Climate News | Tagged , , , , , , , | 45 Comments

Climate models getting worse than we thought

Posted on May 16, 2013 by

New paper finds climate models are getting worse rather than better Via the Hockey Schtick: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the latest climate models are performing even worse than the earlier generations of climate models … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 80 Comments

Climate models fail to ‘predict’ US droughts

Posted on May 9, 2013 by

Story submitted by WUWT reader “Clyde” Simulations identify past megadroughts, but at wrong times. “This would be a fine country if it only had water,” observes a settler looking at the barren west Texas plains. “So would Hell,” replies a … Continue reading →

Posted in Drought, Weather | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

A compilation of lower climate sensitivities, plus a new one

Posted on April 25, 2013 by

Still Another Low Climate Sensitivity Estimate Guest post By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 60 Comments

Michael Mann says climate models cannot explain the Medieval Warming Period – I say they can’t even explain the present

Posted on April 11, 2013 by

Ice core data shows CO2 levels changed less than 10 parts per million from 1600-1800 during the MWP. From the Hockey Schtick:  A new paper from Schurer et al (with Mann as co-author) finds that climate “models cannot explain the warm … Continue reading →

Posted in IPCC AR5 leak, MedievalWarmPeriod, Michael E. Mann, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 113 Comments

Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Posted on April 2, 2013 by

Guest post by Dr. Norman Page 1. Methods and Premises My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this site (http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com)  notably: 6/18/10 Thirty Year Climate Forecast 7/19/12 30 … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , | 71 Comments

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Posted on March 20, 2013 by

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

IPCC Chapter 11 – Bankruptcy Protection

Posted on December 23, 2012 by

Guest post by David M. Hoffer IPCC reports AR1 through 4 were published in relative obscurity. ClimateGate and the emergence of the blogosphere as the primary forum for debate of the science and public policy intersection changed all that. AR4 … Continue reading →

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , , | 97 Comments

New study shows: climate models still struggle with medium- term climate forecasts

Posted on December 7, 2012 by

How cold will a winter be in two years?  How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? The Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Isaac Held’s 2-box model: another failed ocean-equilibration excuse for dismissing solar warming

Posted on November 15, 2012 by

Guest post by Alec Rawls Dr. Isaac Held, who models fluid dynamics at NOAA, dismisses a solar explanation for late 20th century warming by invoking a 2-box model of ocean equilibration. In his model an upper upper ocean layer (100m … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 133 Comments

Trenberth dials up the warming predictions

Posted on November 8, 2012 by

From NCAR: Future warming likely to be on high side of climate projections, analysis finds November 08, 2012 BOULDER—Climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise, … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 196 Comments

Scientific consensus revisited

Posted on October 22, 2012 by

Guest post by Juraj Vanovcan “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Abraham Lincoln –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– As of today, … Continue reading →

Posted in Consensus, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , | 45 Comments

Climate lab in a container on the high seas

Posted on October 1, 2012 by

From the Brookhaven National Laboratory: Yearlong MAGIC Climate Study Launches Climate instruments mounted aboard the Horizon Spirit container ship begin taking data The Horizon Spirit makes the round trip between Los Angeles and Hawaii every two weeks. UPTON, NY — A … Continue reading →

Posted in clouds, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 42 Comments

Climate Models shown to be inaccurate less than 30 years out

Posted on September 18, 2012 by

From the University of Arizona (h/t to WUWT reader Miguel Rakiewicz): A new study has found that climate-prediction models are good at predicting long-term climate patterns on a global scale but lose their edge when applied to time frames shorter … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , | 97 Comments

Volcanic Corroboration

Posted on September 10, 2012 by

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2010, I wrote a post called “Prediction is hard, especially of the future“. It turned out to be the first of a series of posts that I ended up writing on the inability … Continue reading →

Posted in Volcanoes | Tagged , , , , , , | 41 Comments

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Posted on August 23, 2012 by

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , | 117 Comments

Important New Paper on the Nocturnal Boundary Layer, Mixing, and Radiative Forcing as it applies to GHCN weather stations

Posted on July 12, 2012 by

From Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. comes word of an important new paper that shows how the air near the ground (boundary layer) is highly affected by sensitive nighttime dynamics, which show up in the Tmin of weather station data (GHCN … Continue reading →

Posted in GHCN, Surfacestations paper, UHI, Weather_stations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 65 Comments

The Very Model Of A Modern Major Problem

Posted on June 17, 2012 by

Reposted from The GWPF by Dr. David Whitehouse There has been some discussion about a paper in Nature Climate Change by Gleckler et al that says they detect “a positive identification (at the 1% level) of an anthropogenic fingerprint in … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 57 Comments

Climate models outperformed by random walks

Posted on June 14, 2012 by

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 160 Comments

USGS models ‘Climate-change-induced aridity’ in California

Posted on June 7, 2012 by

More climate modeling from a  non-climate organization, I hope they still track Earthquakes. News Release Climate Change and Water Supply in California’s Central Valley: A Model Approach SAN DIEGO, Calif. — Scientists have developed a new method to help resource … Continue reading →

Posted in Agriculture, Modeling, Rainfall | Tagged , , , , | 47 Comments