90 climate model projectons versus reality

Reality wins, it seems. Dr Roy Spencer writes: As seen in the following graphic, over the period of the satellite record (1979-2012), both the surface and satellite observations produce linear temperature trends which are below 87 of the 90 climate models used in the comparison. Advertisements

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Gatekeeping at Geophysical Research Letters

Dr. Judith Curry writes: As the IPCC struggles with its inconvenient truth – the pause and the growing discrepancy between models and observations – the obvious question is: why is the IPCC just starting to grapple with this issue now, essentially two minutes before midnite of the release of the AR5? … My blog post…

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still 'decades away' from being useful

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users…

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with time? Graph above by Dr. Roy Spencer Increasing mathematical uncertainty from initial starting conditions is…