global_warming_questions

Out At The Boundaries

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve heard many times that whereas weather prediction is an “initial-value” problem, climate prediction is a “boundary problem”. I’ve often wondered about this, questions like “what is the boundary?”. I woke up today thinking that I didn’t have an adequately clear understanding of the difference between the two types of problems.…

lag between toa radiation and temperature

Climate Insensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been wanting to [take] another look at the relationship between net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes on the one hand and changes in temperature on the other. As a necessary prelude, I finally have gotten round to an oft-postponed task, that of looking at the thermal lag in different areas…

CERES average temperature minus expected 180 degrees

The Temperature Field

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been mulling over a comment made by Steven Mosher. I don’t have the exact quote, so he’s welcome to correct any errors. As I understood it, he said that much of the variation in temperatures around the planet can be explained by a combination of elevation and latitude. He…

Average TOA Radiation Imbalance 2000 2014

Temperature and TOA Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing. TOA forcing is the imbalance between the TOA upwelling and downwelling radiation. The CERES satellite dataset contains observations of the TOA radiation imbalance on a gridcell-by-gridcell basis. It is calculated as the downwelling solar radiation for that month by gridcell, minus…

increase airborne sequestered co2 1959

The Secret Life of Half-Life

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [see update at the end of the head post] I first got introduced to the idea of “half-life” in the 1950s because the topic of the day was nuclear fallout. We practiced hiding under our school desks if the bomb went off, and talked about how long you’d have to…

grahams hierarchy of disagreement

Agreeing to Disagree

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at “Digging in the Clay” Verity Jones has an excellent graphic summarizing the different levels of disagreement. The graphic deserves wider circulation. The types of disagreement range in a spectrum from the strongest, refuting the author’s central point, all the way down to the weakest, name-calling. Here’s the graphic:…