The Charney Report Revisited

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [see update at the end] Over on Twitter, Michael Tobis made the claim that the 1979 Charney report entitled “Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment”  was a “triumph of 20th century meteorological science”, in part for predicting “surface warming tending to be concentrated in polar regions”.  This got me…

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Forcing and Burning in Coal Country.

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach A 2015 paper by Xiaochun Zhang and Ken Caldeira has come to my attention. Inter alia, the abstract says: For example, the global and time‐integrated radiative forcing from burning a fossil fuel exceeds the heat released upon combustion within 2 months. Over the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere,…

A Second Look At Radiation Versus Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See Update at end] I kept going back and looking at the graphic from my previous post on radiation and temperature. It kept niggling at me. It shows the change in surface temperature compared to the contemporaneous change in how much energy the surface is absorbing. Here’s that graphic again:…

Radiation versus Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [SEE UPDATE AT THE END] Due to the recent posts by Lord Monkton and Nick Stokes, I’ve been thinking about the relationship between radiation and temperature. So I turned to the CERES dataset. Here is a scatterplot of the monthly global average surface temperature versus the monthly global average downwelling…

Curious Correlations

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Grrrrr … gotta pull this one. The effect I found was due to the interaction of the El Nino with the seasons. Once I removed that, very different results. When I’m wrong, I’m wrong, no getting around that. Ah, well. I’ll return to this subject of correlations with Nino/Nina, it’s…

The Cooling Rains

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I took another ramble through the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite-measured rainfall data. Figure 1 shows a Pacific-centered and an Atlantic-centered view of the average rainfall from the end of 1997 to the start of 2015 as measured by the TRMM satellite. There’s lots of interesting stuff in those…

Sunspots: Labitzke Meets Bonferroni

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a previous thread here on WUWT, a commenter said that the sunspot-related variations in solar output were shown by Labitzke et al. to affect the stratospheric temperature over the North Pole, viz: Karin Labitzke cracked that nut. She was the first one to find a correlation between not one…

Sea Level and Effective N

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over in the Tweeterverse, I said I wasn’t a denier, and I challenged folks to point out what they think I deny. Brandon R. Gates took up the challenge by claiming that I denied that sea level rise is accelerating. I replied: Brandon, IF such acceleration exists it is meaninglessly…

President Jefferson Meets Mount Tambora

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the comments of my last post entitled “Spot The Volcano, 1815 Edition” someone mentioned that Thomas Jefferson had commented on what is often called the “Year Without A Summer”. This was the summer of the year 1816, one year after the eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia, which occurred…