California's giant sucking sound

Time to leave California? Governor Moonbeam may be the best salesman Texas has. While there’s a state delegation in Texas (including former SFO mayor Gavin Newsom) trying to figure out why Texas is pulling business out of California (cue Ross Perot’s giant sucking sound) our governor turns up the volume.

Flashback:

While not the main theme at the moment (hostile state over-regulation of business is) the election reminder of “It’s the electricity, stupid” may someday be a yellow sticky note on some campaign consultant’s computer monitor.

WUWT reader DD More says:

Heard on the radio news this AM and looked it up.

California governor Jerry Brown is expected to sign legislation today requiring energy firms in California to generate 33 per cent of their energy from renewable sources by 2020, delivering one of the most ambitious renewable energy standards in the world.

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2042816/california-governor-rubberstamp-cent-renewable-energy-target

Will you Cali-guys be starting a poll to guess the date someone in the state gives the Steve Holliday speech?

Electricity consumers in the UK will need to get used to flicking the switch and finding the power unavailable, according to Steve Holliday, CEO of National Grid, the country’s grid operator. Because of a six-fold increase in wind generation, which won’t be available when the wind doesn’t blow, “The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020, 2030,” he told BBC’s Radio 4. “We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.

“We are going to change our own behaviour and consume it when it is available and available cheaply.”

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/03/05/lawrence-solomon-don’t-count-on-constant-electricity-under-renewable-energy-says-uk-electricity-ceo/

Texas has already dealt with the electrical issues of renewable energy:

We Spent Billions on Wind Power… and All I Got Was a Rolling Blackout

And, so far, California’s wind power doesn’t hold up so well:

The reality of wind turbines in California – video

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April 12, 2011 8:39 am

“…requiring energy firms in California to generate…”
This, of course, highlights the basic cognitive error of all Liberals – simply mandating it shall make it so. Cue unintended consequences …
d(^_^)b
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

Christopher Simpson
April 12, 2011 8:42 am

“We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.”

Oh! Like a really clever hide-and-seek player.

Pull My Finger
April 12, 2011 8:54 am

In an unreported bit, Jerry thinks he can get 10% of that figure by mandating that all Californians fart in bottles.

David L. Hagen
April 12, 2011 8:57 am

Having committed massively to “clean” electricity, California will find itself without the fuel needed to drive to work, by failing to build plants to make alternative fuels.
Non-OPEC oil peaked in 2010, having used up half its original endowment of 1,400 billion bbl of oil.
Available Net Exports peaked in 2005, after deducting Chindia’s demand (China + India)
See Westexas post after Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015 by Sam Foucher.

The Available Net Export (ANE) trend is also very interesting. Here are 2002, 2005 and 2008 numbers for ANE (Global Net Exports not consumed by Chindia):
2002: 34.8 mbpd
2005: 40.8 (+5.3%/year)
2008: 38.6 (-1.8%/year)
(BP + Minor EIA input)
As noted above, ANE increased at 5.3%/year from 2002 to 2005, but then fell at 1.8%/year from 2005 to 2008. Of course, we saw six straight years of year over year increases in annual oil prices from 2002 to 2008.
If ANE had kept increasing at the 2002 to 2005 rate, then in 2008, ANE would have been 47.8 mbpd, versus the actual volume of 38.6 mbpd, a gap of over 9 mbpd, between what the non-Chindia import market was expecting to see at the 2002 to 2005 rate of increase, versus what was actually delivered.
IMO, this provides pretty strong evidence that the Available Net Export shock to the system was a key trigger for the financial meltdown in the US. I suspect that Available Net Exports will be down to 27 to 30 mbpd range in 2015, unless we see a collapse in demand from the Chindia region.

i.e. He projects Available Net Exports 34% to 25% down from the 2005 peak.

alanstorm
April 12, 2011 8:58 am

Build more breeder reactors – problem solved. More power, more renewable.
I’m sure that’s what they intend.

Dr T G Watkins
April 12, 2011 8:58 am

Can anyone recommend a cheap reliable home generator for use in UK?
Shares in candle makers are sure to rise.
We will be known as the ‘dark age’ to our descendants for altogether different reasons from the original, both in a literal and metaphoric sense.

Retired Engineer
April 12, 2011 8:59 am

The government may legislate or mandate anything. Mother Nature may not comply.
Descartes: “I think, therefore I am.”
Universe: “So ??”
“Smart Grid” — One that does not work.

Molon Labe
April 12, 2011 9:00 am

Waivers will be available in exchange for political donations. It’s just another version of Obamacare.

Philanthropist
April 12, 2011 9:05 am

A gas or diesel generator for almost every home in most neighbourhoods is going to create a bigger pollution problem, lots of police will be required to crack down on people running them, except for rich people and Mexicans of course.

April 12, 2011 9:07 am

California has the most ambitious plan? Then Ontario (province in Canada) has the second most ambitious. It wants to phase out coal plants (7 GW) and produce 20-25% of its energy from renewable sources. I don’t know how much sun there is in California, but much of Ontario – where renewable energy msut be built, because the southern part is too densely populated – is north of the 47th parallel, meaning less than 8 hours of sushine during winter. And never mind wind (unreliable) and hydro (indecently expensive to build).

Laurie Bowen
April 12, 2011 9:13 am

I see wood burning generators in their future . . .

Daniel Ream
April 12, 2011 9:20 am

King Canute could not be reached for comment.

ShrNfr
April 12, 2011 9:22 am

I think that CA should be forced to become an “energy island”. No exporting their pollution to other states. Make them live on what they generate. If they generate it and pay for it, who am I to argue. But export of stuff they do not want to other states around them is not in keeping with the spirit of the Sierra Club. On second thought, maybe it is since that spirit is “We got ours, you go suck wind.”

Old Macdonald
April 12, 2011 9:24 am

“Because of a six-fold increase in wind generation, which won’t be available when the wind doesn’t blow, “The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020, 2030,” he told BBC’s Radio 4. “We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.”
What is the percentage divergence between a ‘smart stupid’ and a ‘dumb stupid’ ?
http://disasterplanningcenter.com/disaster-prevention/how-to-prevent-a-power-loss-during-a-disaster-and-restore-power-quickly/

kim
April 12, 2011 9:26 am

The windmills sit with
Undeciphered rationale;
Writ WrongoWrongo.
============

April 12, 2011 9:28 am

“We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.”
How much smarter than it get from there?

Dan in California
April 12, 2011 9:32 am

I live where I can watch a large fraction of the Tehachapi wind farm. 740 MW of new mills are being installed and brought online. It appears that that the new ones run about 2/3 as much as the earlier ones because they no longer have the best sites.
Personally, I am assuming that the power will go off sometime in the future, and I have installed enough solar PV and battery and inverter to run the refrigerator when that happens. The PV panels are installed where the neighbors can’t see them so that when the power goes off, they are less likely to get stolen.

Robert M
April 12, 2011 9:33 am

Why is it that many of the folks left of center remind me of my 4 year old. He wishes the world is a certain way, and then proceeds to act as if the wish is true. When reality infringes upon his wonderful world, he is very angry and blames the nearest adult.
This is exactly what the left does. They blame everyone except themselves for the unbelievably stupid acts they commit and never learn from their mistakes.
On the bright side, my son will grow up. As clearly demonstrated by Gov. Moonbeam and his ilk, lefties never will…

Steve C
April 12, 2011 9:38 am

“We are going to change our own behaviour … ”
No, Mr. Holliday. People like you are going to change our behaviour … at least, until and unless people like us find a way of getting rid of people like you.
On a slightly surprising note, though, BBC World Service broadcast an edition of “One Planet” (still on the iplayer) which was surprisingly positive about thorium reactors. Look for “The Metal that May Save the World”.

Scott Covert
April 12, 2011 9:44 am

If this legistation stands up in the courts, I predict some really big coal fired plants being built on the Nevada side of the border. Moonbeam can claim victory because the plants aren’t IN California as the jobs march ever eastward.

Latitude
April 12, 2011 9:52 am

I heard that China, India, Russia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ….and on….and on….and on
We’re going to sign up for this too……..
not

April 12, 2011 9:55 am

Brown will have to give on his plans up when eventually he faces the hard reality. When he was governor in the 80s he caused terrible damage to California’s economy with his stubborn delay in giving green light to spraying with Malathion during the terrible Medfly infestation in San Joaquin and other valleys. The several months long embargo imposed on California fruit exports sent thousands of producers into bankruptcy.
History has the nasty habit of repeating itself, but the second time does it as a tragic comedy.

Jean Parisot
April 12, 2011 9:56 am

So Nevada should build some big ass coal plants …

DaveR
April 12, 2011 9:57 am

What a different world we would live in if Ross Perot had won. If we would of actually protected American jobs and decided that deficits do matter. Come to Michigan and drive around any industrial park and see the one out of three empty buildings. In some cases 50% empty. The surviving manufacturing businesses are on life support. Notice on the video the smug looks that Bill Clinton and George Bush give to Ross Perot. What a disaster both political parties have become. I have very little hope that my daughter who is graduating valedictorian this year will live in a better world than we did.

Sam Parsons
April 12, 2011 10:05 am

Dr T G Watkins says:
April 12, 2011 at 8:58 am
“We will be known as the ‘dark age’ to our descendants for altogether different reasons from the original, both in a literal and metaphoric sense.”
It will increase romance enormously. Maybe it is a secret plot by the government to resurrect the British birth rate. Maybe the plan is to take you back to the conditions of the 19th century slums. Merry Old England, after all.

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