California's giant sucking sound

Time to leave California? Governor Moonbeam may be the best salesman Texas has. While there’s a state delegation in Texas (including former SFO mayor Gavin Newsom) trying to figure out why Texas is pulling business out of California (cue Ross Perot’s giant sucking sound) our governor turns up the volume.

Flashback:

While not the main theme at the moment (hostile state over-regulation of business is) the election reminder of “It’s the electricity, stupid” may someday be a yellow sticky note on some campaign consultant’s computer monitor.

WUWT reader DD More says:

Heard on the radio news this AM and looked it up.

California governor Jerry Brown is expected to sign legislation today requiring energy firms in California to generate 33 per cent of their energy from renewable sources by 2020, delivering one of the most ambitious renewable energy standards in the world.

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2042816/california-governor-rubberstamp-cent-renewable-energy-target

Will you Cali-guys be starting a poll to guess the date someone in the state gives the Steve Holliday speech?

Electricity consumers in the UK will need to get used to flicking the switch and finding the power unavailable, according to Steve Holliday, CEO of National Grid, the country’s grid operator. Because of a six-fold increase in wind generation, which won’t be available when the wind doesn’t blow, “The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020, 2030,” he told BBC’s Radio 4. “We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.

“We are going to change our own behaviour and consume it when it is available and available cheaply.”

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/03/05/lawrence-solomon-don’t-count-on-constant-electricity-under-renewable-energy-says-uk-electricity-ceo/

Texas has already dealt with the electrical issues of renewable energy:

We Spent Billions on Wind Power… and All I Got Was a Rolling Blackout

And, so far, California’s wind power doesn’t hold up so well:

The reality of wind turbines in California – video

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“…requiring energy firms in California to generate…”
This, of course, highlights the basic cognitive error of all Liberals – simply mandating it shall make it so. Cue unintended consequences …
d(^_^)b
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

Christopher Simpson

“We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.”

Oh! Like a really clever hide-and-seek player.

Pull My Finger

In an unreported bit, Jerry thinks he can get 10% of that figure by mandating that all Californians fart in bottles.

David L. Hagen

Having committed massively to “clean” electricity, California will find itself without the fuel needed to drive to work, by failing to build plants to make alternative fuels.
Non-OPEC oil peaked in 2010, having used up half its original endowment of 1,400 billion bbl of oil.
Available Net Exports peaked in 2005, after deducting Chindia’s demand (China + India)
See Westexas post after Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015 by Sam Foucher.

The Available Net Export (ANE) trend is also very interesting. Here are 2002, 2005 and 2008 numbers for ANE (Global Net Exports not consumed by Chindia):
2002: 34.8 mbpd
2005: 40.8 (+5.3%/year)
2008: 38.6 (-1.8%/year)
(BP + Minor EIA input)
As noted above, ANE increased at 5.3%/year from 2002 to 2005, but then fell at 1.8%/year from 2005 to 2008. Of course, we saw six straight years of year over year increases in annual oil prices from 2002 to 2008.
If ANE had kept increasing at the 2002 to 2005 rate, then in 2008, ANE would have been 47.8 mbpd, versus the actual volume of 38.6 mbpd, a gap of over 9 mbpd, between what the non-Chindia import market was expecting to see at the 2002 to 2005 rate of increase, versus what was actually delivered.
IMO, this provides pretty strong evidence that the Available Net Export shock to the system was a key trigger for the financial meltdown in the US. I suspect that Available Net Exports will be down to 27 to 30 mbpd range in 2015, unless we see a collapse in demand from the Chindia region.

i.e. He projects Available Net Exports 34% to 25% down from the 2005 peak.

alanstorm

Build more breeder reactors – problem solved. More power, more renewable.
I’m sure that’s what they intend.

Dr T G Watkins

Can anyone recommend a cheap reliable home generator for use in UK?
Shares in candle makers are sure to rise.
We will be known as the ‘dark age’ to our descendants for altogether different reasons from the original, both in a literal and metaphoric sense.

Retired Engineer

The government may legislate or mandate anything. Mother Nature may not comply.
Descartes: “I think, therefore I am.”
Universe: “So ??”
“Smart Grid” — One that does not work.

rokshox

Waivers will be available in exchange for political donations. It’s just another version of Obamacare.

Philanthropist

A gas or diesel generator for almost every home in most neighbourhoods is going to create a bigger pollution problem, lots of police will be required to crack down on people running them, except for rich people and Mexicans of course.

California has the most ambitious plan? Then Ontario (province in Canada) has the second most ambitious. It wants to phase out coal plants (7 GW) and produce 20-25% of its energy from renewable sources. I don’t know how much sun there is in California, but much of Ontario – where renewable energy msut be built, because the southern part is too densely populated – is north of the 47th parallel, meaning less than 8 hours of sushine during winter. And never mind wind (unreliable) and hydro (indecently expensive to build).

Laurie Bowen

I see wood burning generators in their future . . .

Daniel Ream

King Canute could not be reached for comment.

ShrNfr

I think that CA should be forced to become an “energy island”. No exporting their pollution to other states. Make them live on what they generate. If they generate it and pay for it, who am I to argue. But export of stuff they do not want to other states around them is not in keeping with the spirit of the Sierra Club. On second thought, maybe it is since that spirit is “We got ours, you go suck wind.”

Old Macdonald

“Because of a six-fold increase in wind generation, which won’t be available when the wind doesn’t blow, “The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020, 2030,” he told BBC’s Radio 4. “We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.”
What is the percentage divergence between a ‘smart stupid’ and a ‘dumb stupid’ ?
http://disasterplanningcenter.com/disaster-prevention/how-to-prevent-a-power-loss-during-a-disaster-and-restore-power-quickly/

kim

The windmills sit with
Undeciphered rationale;
Writ WrongoWrongo.
============

“We keep thinking that we want it to be there and provide power when we need it. It’s going to be much smarter than that.”
How much smarter than it get from there?

Dan in California

I live where I can watch a large fraction of the Tehachapi wind farm. 740 MW of new mills are being installed and brought online. It appears that that the new ones run about 2/3 as much as the earlier ones because they no longer have the best sites.
Personally, I am assuming that the power will go off sometime in the future, and I have installed enough solar PV and battery and inverter to run the refrigerator when that happens. The PV panels are installed where the neighbors can’t see them so that when the power goes off, they are less likely to get stolen.

Robert M

Why is it that many of the folks left of center remind me of my 4 year old. He wishes the world is a certain way, and then proceeds to act as if the wish is true. When reality infringes upon his wonderful world, he is very angry and blames the nearest adult.
This is exactly what the left does. They blame everyone except themselves for the unbelievably stupid acts they commit and never learn from their mistakes.
On the bright side, my son will grow up. As clearly demonstrated by Gov. Moonbeam and his ilk, lefties never will…

Steve C

“We are going to change our own behaviour … ”
No, Mr. Holliday. People like you are going to change our behaviour … at least, until and unless people like us find a way of getting rid of people like you.
On a slightly surprising note, though, BBC World Service broadcast an edition of “One Planet” (still on the iplayer) which was surprisingly positive about thorium reactors. Look for “The Metal that May Save the World”.

Scott Covert

If this legistation stands up in the courts, I predict some really big coal fired plants being built on the Nevada side of the border. Moonbeam can claim victory because the plants aren’t IN California as the jobs march ever eastward.

Latitude

I heard that China, India, Russia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iran, ….and on….and on….and on
We’re going to sign up for this too……..
not

Brown will have to give on his plans up when eventually he faces the hard reality. When he was governor in the 80s he caused terrible damage to California’s economy with his stubborn delay in giving green light to spraying with Malathion during the terrible Medfly infestation in San Joaquin and other valleys. The several months long embargo imposed on California fruit exports sent thousands of producers into bankruptcy.
History has the nasty habit of repeating itself, but the second time does it as a tragic comedy.

jeanparisot

So Nevada should build some big ass coal plants …

DaveR

What a different world we would live in if Ross Perot had won. If we would of actually protected American jobs and decided that deficits do matter. Come to Michigan and drive around any industrial park and see the one out of three empty buildings. In some cases 50% empty. The surviving manufacturing businesses are on life support. Notice on the video the smug looks that Bill Clinton and George Bush give to Ross Perot. What a disaster both political parties have become. I have very little hope that my daughter who is graduating valedictorian this year will live in a better world than we did.

Sam Parsons

Dr T G Watkins says:
April 12, 2011 at 8:58 am
“We will be known as the ‘dark age’ to our descendants for altogether different reasons from the original, both in a literal and metaphoric sense.”
It will increase romance enormously. Maybe it is a secret plot by the government to resurrect the British birth rate. Maybe the plan is to take you back to the conditions of the 19th century slums. Merry Old England, after all.

Alexander Harvey

Anthony:
Electricity consumers in the UK will need to get used to flicking the switch and finding the power unavailable, according to Steve Holliday, CEO of National Grid, the country’s grid operator.
A case of making stuff up, I think. Notice that it is not a quote and I listened to what he did say on the BBC and the entire speech he gave that is referred to. What he had to say was interesting and quite startling in places but I think you can forget the “flicking the switch” stuff as he did not say that at all in either case. As far as journalism goes that piece is nothing to be proud of or be reliably informed by.
Alex

MarkW

DaveR: What makes you think that had Perot won, he could have gotten the Republicans and Democrats in charge of congress to pass anything he proposed?
As to the vacant buildings in Michigan, you can thank the unions for that. Open borders policies had nothing to do with it.

Laurie Bowen

Senate Environment Committee Hearing on Natural Gas Drilling
http://www.c-span.org/Events/Senate-Environment-Committee-Hearing-on-Natural-Gas-Drilling/10737420841-1/
Live Now! . . . . for those interested . . . .

Sam Parsons

DaveR says:
April 12, 2011 at 9:57 am
“What a different world we would live in if Ross Perot had won.” And please remember that he could have won had he not self-destructed. And Clinton was elected with just 43 percent of the popular vote. A third party can win in the US. If the Repubs put up another “compassionate conservative,” a Bob Dole, or a John McCain then a third party can win. Sarah Palin should keep her powder dry. Her negatives become positives in a three party race.

David L. Hagen

lemoutongris
Good news: Canada has hydropower.

Canada, home to about 475 hydroelectric plants with a capacity of 70,000 MW, produces about 355 terawatt-hours of hydropower each year. But Canada’s untapped potential is far greater.
According to a study commissioned by the Canadian Hydropower Association, Canada has 163,000 MW of untapped hydropower potential, more than twice the country’s existing hydropower capacity.
Already, hydropower accounts for 60 percent of Canada’s electricity consumption.

Bad news: Doctors are not the only ones gaming the system. Ontario’s electricity watchdog reports:
By staying online, the generator would have collected $10,000 in revenue. But by shutting off, then back on, a qualifying generator gets about $50,000 in revenue. In a six-month period last year, the panel found 426 occasions when generators had shut down, then restarted in two hours or less. One generator was responsible for 336 of the shutdowns.

Laurie Bowen

That is not accurate (live now) it was live at 10 am today . . . at least I think that right.

Dena

The Palo Verde Nuclear power plant was constructed with only three of the five reactors it was designed for. This may be a good time to put the other two reactors in as there will be a ready market in California for “clean” power. LA already imports some of the power but there will be a need for more with this law in place.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_Station

John S.

Time to invest in LFTR technology to find out if it really is a viable alternative energy source.

j ferguson

The sign that used to be posted outside Seattle requesting that the last one leaving please turn out the lights will need a bit of editing for California – there won’t be any lights to turn out.

Jeremy

You know what Puerto Rico is like?
California will soon resemble it quite closely.

James Sexton

I feel sorry for the sane people left in Cali………… both of them.

Dave Springer

Texas has no state income tax and real-estate is much more affordable. That translates into employees needing less salary to maintain the same standard of living which in turn lowers payroll expense for the business as well as lowering the cost for factories and offices. Lower electricity cost is just icing on the cake. But for many Californians living in a state where every statewide political office is held by a Republican might be just too much to bear.

Quis custoddiet ipos custodes

DD More on March 24, 2011 at 9:42 am…on tips said “33%RES (electrical generation in CA)………….. to be signed by Gov. Brown.”
It looks like we (Californians) get to learn from the UK on how to get energy storage in place. There is a meeting on the subject (April 28th) of energy storage and the 33%RES requirement coming up shortly at the California Energy Commission (CEC).
Meeting Announcement http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011_energypolicy/notices/2011-04-28_IEPR_Energy_Storage.pdf
And the agenda- http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011_energypolicy/documents/2011-04-28_workshop/2011-04-28_Agenda.pdf
I think the presentation by Mark Rothlender (California Independent System Operator- the guys responsible for the grid) will be interesting.

James Sexton

MarkW says:
April 12, 2011 at 10:12 am
DaveR: What makes you think that had Perot won, he could have gotten the Republicans and Democrats in charge of congress to pass anything he proposed?
As to the vacant buildings in Michigan, you can thank the unions for that. Open borders policies had nothing to do with it.
============================================
Depends on what policies you’re referencing. There are big three mfr. plants in foreign nations now.

starzmom

Do any big utilities actually own generation in California, or is all the generation owned by 3rd parties? Wasn’t that one of the problems in the summer of blackouts? This is pie in the sky, and it will be cold and dark or hot and dark, depending on where you live.

R.Connelly

Interestingly, SDG&E is building a large wind farm in Montana (electricity bound for Canada) – and receives ‘green certificates’ … to be used in Cali… to offset the electricity generated by ‘dirty’ sources – strange the way of greens..
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/apr/11/sdge-wind-farm-scaled-back-after-protests/

And when a California scientist strays off the eco-reservation…

pk

starzmom:
when the utilities owned a great share of their generating stations they became so irritated by the envirionmentalists industrial regulations that they sold off the stations that they could to various operating companies to get rid of the hassles.
a while ago (during davis’s reign) california had a tremendous power shortage and it became apparent that from californias’ point of view this (allowing the generation capacity to leave the state) had been one of the major misteaks in californias history. it appears to have been a major contributer to davis’s impeachment.
we saw electric bills skyrocket with older generation plants sitting idle because they did not pass xxxx polution requirements, we saw schools shut down for the day because of lack of power, we saw hospitals not being allowed to use their own diesel generators because of environmental regulations ………
this brings rise to two questions:
1. why hasn’t our state legislature nullified a great number of these enabling regulations….
2. where in the he&& are the fruit flys in our time of need.
C

Bob Kutz

33%? That’s no challenge!
In 2020, the only power they’ll need will be one solar panel.
It will power the answering machine.
The answering machine will say; “you’ve reached the State of California. There’s no one here to take your call. If this is an emegergency . . .”

Jay

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html
Looks like CA power costs 47% more for industrial, 26% more for commercial, and 29% more for residential when compared to Texas.
If you are running a manufacturing operation (like a semiconductor fab, solar cell manufacturing …) and use a lot of electric power…the decision seems easy.

Torgeir Hansson

I would be a little more cautious to criticize Jerry Brown for what’s going on in California. The state is basically ungovernable, with entrenched incumbents in the State House and a supermajority rule for budget ratifications.
More than anything I would believe JB sees renewable energy as job creation. We need to get it done anyway, so why not now? Let’s hope nuclear is on the table before we become The Land Of The Giant Desk Fans.
Actually, Jerry Brown looks like the only adult in the room these days.
Are you guys really saying you miss Arnold?

e. c. cowan

It’s hard to outdo Jerry for radical stupidity, but I have read the Gov. of Texas was bragging about the alternative energy projects in his state.
Could it have been those wind turbines he is so proud of that caused the loss of electric capacity during an almost unprecedented cold snap in southern Texas?
These politicians who claim to be fiscal conservatives and then support huge TAX and RATE payer subsidies for ‘green technologies’ are the worse kind of hypocrites.
I’ll skip California AND Texas, thank you.

George E. Smith

Today is Tax day; well it is for those few of us who actually ARE taxpayers (USA/Cal) style.
I was late to work today, as I had to stop by my Credit Union to get checks to send out to my favorite Uncle, and my favourite Moonbat. Well I don’t actually owe any taxes, as of today; in fact I already overpaid my taxes, for the 2010 Tax year.
No I am not getting a refund either. Uncle Sam is going to swallow my refund, as an estimated down payment on taxes I might owe later on, as a result of my still being a working stiff taxpayer, ten years after I should have retired on my lowly accumulated pension funds.
Well that (non) refund was not enough to satisfy my Uncle’s rapacious appetite for more slush fund money to pay out grants for people to look in mud for pollens, and bore holes in trees; but only on one side.
So this morning I cleaned out every one of the accounts at my Credit Union to make up the difference between my greedy Uncle’s demands, and the not inconsiderable overpayment from last year.
The only problem is that there wasn’t enough money in all of those accounts to satisfy the shortfall, so I had to borrow a considerable sum from the Credit Union. Well don’t worry, I only need it for about three days.
That’s how long it takes to clear the market transaction which last week sold a portion of my retirement account assets, in order to pay the taxes, on having sold those retirement account assets.
No I didn’t need those funds from my retirement account; as I said I have a full time salaried job.
But you see, my greedy Uncle demands that I must sell part of my retirement nest egg every year; whether I need the money or not. Well not only don’t I need the money from those retirement funds, but I don’t even get any money from those funds; because every last cent of the withdrawal, goes to my spendthrift Uncle in taxes; I get not a brass razoo out of the deal.
So if you are looking for me this afternoon, you need look no further than the local SJ TEA Party Tax rally, to tell our boy wonder Teleprompter Reader par excellence, that I really am T-axed E-nough A-lready.
Well I have gotten used to the routine; in June, I will have anouther Credit Union Cleanout, and another “retirement” fund selloff, to pay more taxes.
So no I am not amused by the antics of otherwise unemployed, and likely unemployable pseudo “scientists” who think that the taxpayers owe them a living pursuing non-productive enterprises.
A report this morning says that the total outstanding Student Loan debt, now exceeds ALL outstanding Credit Card debt; and that the vast majority of that Student loan debt is for “courses” that are quite unlikely to lead to ANY career that can earn enough money to EVER pay off that student loan debt.
Time to get real kiddies. Political “Science” and “Ethnic Studies” aka School of racism, may be fun for green yuppies; but how are you going to eat, without public (taxpayer) assistance ?

Bob Diaz

I live in California and my frustration level with the RETARDED BOZOS in Sacramento is unreal. I can only assume that they are so blinded by their own world of liberal/environmental ideology, that they refuse to see the real world.
“More than one in five (21%) of California small-business owners do not expect to be in business in California in three years, according to a recent survey by Small Business California, an advocacy group in San Francisco. …”
http://jan.ocregister.com/2011/03/08/are-calif-businesses-closing-or-leaving/55995/
When it comes to unemployment, California is #3 in the nation. We have a massive debt that is hanging over our heads and all the STUPID Democrats in Sacramento want to do is spend more money and raise taxes!!!
California is going down the toilet and the left is flushing as fast as they can.

Jeremy

MarkW says:
April 12, 2011 at 10:12 am
DaveR: What makes you think that had Perot won, he could have gotten the Republicans and Democrats in charge of congress to pass anything he proposed?
As to the vacant buildings in Michigan, you can thank the unions for that. Open borders policies had nothing to do with it.

The presidential position is so overrated it is ridiculous. All of America has been deceived into believing the only election that matters is the one for president. The reality is our lack of attention on our locally elected representatives has created “representative” bodies full of certifiable kooks bent on lifelong politicking and zero actual work to help the people. Most of these kooks are simply figureheads for their staffs of promoters and image consultants who do very little for our nation except suck up a salary and ensure they win again next term so they keep their job.
The most insidious part of it all is how the entire system of competing political interests convinces all of America that there are only two parties to vote for, and only the presidential race is worth caring about, even though the president is only supposed to be an executive and third parties are necessary to force politicians to at the very least abandon their tried-and-true well-choreographed political theater.
I simply don’t respect anyone who votes for one of the major parties, I can’t. These people are as deceived as any religious nut if they think they’re helping.