Tibet’s ‘worst snowstorm ever’, 7 killed

31 10 2008

More harbinger of the Northern Hemisphere winter to come?

 A bulldozer cleans snow on the Sichuan-Tibet road in Nyingchi, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region Oct. 30, 2008.

A bulldozer cleans snow on the Sichuan-Tibet road in Nyingchi, southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region Oct. 30, 2008. (Xinhua Photo)

LHASA, Oct. 30 (Xinhua) — The death toll has risen to seven, and one person remains missing, as a result of the worst snowstorm on record in Tibet, local authorities said Thursday.

The seven people killed either frozen to death or were crushed by collapsing buildings. About 144,400 heads of livestock died in the storm, which also knocked out telecommunications and traffic in parts of Shannan prefecture.

In Lhunze County, 1,348 people stranded by damaged buildings or blocked roads had been rescued, the county government said. Rescue operation for the remaining 289 trapped was still underway.

The worst-hit county had 36 consecutive hours of snowfall from Sunday, with an average snow coverage of 1.5 meters. Four people died and one remained missing in the snowstorm.

The rescued people have been moved to other villages, sleeping in schools or government buildings.

A road linking Lhunze to Cuona County reopened on Thursday after 63 hours of snow clearing efforts of armed policemen and transportation staff.

Cuona had been isolated from the outside for three days due to the road blockage.

The Tibet regional civil affairs department has allocated relief materials such as clothes and tents to the affected areas.

h/t to Dr. Roger Pielke





WUWT visitor traffic holding steady

31 10 2008

You may remember last month I posted adjusted numbers for WUWT due to a SPAM attack, dropping my September count by about 50K:


SEPTEMBER NUMBERS Click for full sized image

For September 2008 the total was 846,193 page views, up from 667,215 page views in August 2008.

But there is a caveat, I think the real numbers are just shy of 800,000, because on the weekend of 09/20 and 09/21 I got quite a bit of unexpected traffic to one old post that I’m not sure is real or not. During that time, we got a lot of Spam on that particular older entry comparing UAH, RSS, HadCRUT, and GISS, but not anywhere near the numbers specific to that post, shown below:

Blog Stats Increase due to DOS “something”

Saturday 09/20 23,486
Sunday   09/21
25,319
Monday  09/22   1,006

Total: 49,811

Raw WUWT September numbers:           846,193 page views

WUWT Spam Uncertainty numbers:           -49,811 page views (from 09/20 to 09/22)

Final Adjusted WUWT September numbers: 796,382 page views

Today at 5PM (00UTC) I tallied my October numbers, and while they are slightly lower than last month’s total, I didn’t have any perceptible spam attacks like last month, so I don’t need to adjust October’s numbers: Read the rest of this entry »





Arctic sea ice continues rebound

31 10 2008

When we last checked in to the Nansen Sea Ice Graphs, it looked like they were heading towards the “normal” line in a hurry. Ice area seems to still be on that trend, while extent seems to be leveling off it’s growth rate. Area appears to be within about 200,000 square kilometers of the 1979-2007 monthly average and still climbing.

Sea Ice Area - red line is current value, shaded area represents 1 standard deviation

Sea Ice Area - red line is current value, shaded area represents 1 standard deviation

Of course the fact that the 2007 data is included in the average line, means the average is a lower than usual target than one might expect. If we compare to ice area over at Cryopshere today, they use a 1979-2000 mean, which is higher.  Still the rebound we are seeing is impressive.

Sea ice extent looks like this: Read the rest of this entry »





New essay claims- “Not to Worry: Solar Magnetic Activity for Cycle 24 Is Increasing”

31 10 2008

So far, SC24 solar magnetic activity has been in a relative funk. See my post on this very issue from last month.

Leif Svalgaard points out this new paper in AGU from Keating, and kindly placed a copy on his own website for us to examine: Link to Keating-Bz.pdf

The crux of the paper is a forecast, which extends significantly into SC24, even though there is just a small number of observed data points:

Fig. 1. Actual boxcar averages for measured Bz(m) magnitude and the forecast results of applying the McNish- Lincoln technique. Actual data are represented by solid squares, while the calculated results are shown as a curve. The correlation between the two is due to the fact that the McNish-Lincoln method uses actual data when available. The calculated forecast is performed only for the time period after the end of the actual data. This plot shows that Bz(m) reached its minimum average magnitude in mid-2007 and has begun to increase in magnitude. The forecast is that it will continue to increase slowly through the first part of 2008, but will then begin to rapidly increase in magnitude beginning in the latter part of this year, reaching its first peak in late 2009.

There seem to be two schools of thought on the activity level of SC24, those who think it will be very low, and those that think it will be higher than normal.

Dr. Svalgaard goes on record here on this blog in saying: Read the rest of this entry »





Creepy Climate Change for Halloween

31 10 2008

I’m sure we’ll see other dead people talking about climate change soon. Jerry Garcia perhaps? Albert Einstein, John Lennon, why maybe even John Wayne could be utilized. I can see him now, “Listen up Pilgrim…climate change is gonna kill you unless you get off your sorry butt and do something about it!”.

We all know these long dead people had opinions about climate change, but they just never had a chance to express them before they died. Right?

Anything to “save the planet”, including putting words in dead people’s mouths. – Anthony

h/t to Jeff Alberts

Greenpeace Resurrects JFK for Global Warming Ad Campaign
Web video depicts dead president warning climate change ‘threatens our very existence,’ claims ‘technology and renewable energy offers the last remaining hope.’

By Jeff Poor
Business & Media Institute
10/30/2008 1:31:03 PM
There’s something a little creepy about historical figures being brought back to life to promote climate change alarmism, but the over-the-top environmentalists at Greenpeace have no qualms with using it as a tactic.

A video posted on Greenpeace’s YouTube site portrays former President John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated Nov. 22, 1963, in Dallas, making a plea for environmental activism to save the planet from the perils of global warming.

“When man first walked upon the moon, it defined a generation,” Kennedy is depicted saying. “As this new millennium dawns, we face a greater challenge – climate change threatens our very existence. What further disasters will convince world leaders that the existing technology and renewable energy offers the last remaining hope for sustainable future?”

The ad is part of a Greenpeace campaign labeled “Energy [R]evolution” that sets greenhouse gas goals far in excess of the Kyoto treaty. The ad promotes the eradication of coal-fired plants, using more expensive unproven sources of energy, blames industrialized nations for the plight of poor nations, and calls for a radical overhaul of the European auto industry.

Watch the video: Read the rest of this entry »





Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA

30 10 2008

Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA

Reposted here: October 30th, 2008

by Warwick Hughes

The real world sunspot data remaining quiet month after month are mocking the curved red predictions of NOAA and about to slide underneath. Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !!

Here is my clearer chart showing the misfit between NOAA / NASA prediction and real-world data.

Misfit NOAA / NASA prediction
Regular readers might remember that we started posting articles drawing attention to contrasting predictions for Solar Cycle 24, way back on 16 December 2006. Scroll to the start of my solar threads.

Then in March 2007 I posted David Archibald’s pdf article, “The Past and Future of Climate”. Well worth another read now, I would like to see another version of David’s Fig 12 showing where we are now in the transition from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24.
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Issued April 2007 from NOAA / NASA

NOTE from Anthony: We now appear to have a new cycle 24 spot, which you can see here: Read the rest of this entry »





How not to measure temperature part 73, in the middle of nowhere

30 10 2008

The idea with measuring climate accurately, is to get as far away as possible from human/urban influences so that those things don’t bias the readings of the thermometer. For example, on my way from Las Vegas to Reno this week, I passed through the near-ghost town of Mina, Nevada, which has a USHCN station. Mina is about as in the “middle of nowhere” as you can be. In fact, the view to the east of the Mina USHCN station is stunning for it’s remote beauty:

According to Wikipedia, Mina has quite a varied range of temperature:

Average July high temperatures range from 61° to 96 °F, with January averaging between 22° and 47 °F. The highest temperature ever recorded in Mina was 110 °F in 1933, with a low in 1990 of –23 °F. Mina receives very little rainfall, and in an average year gets about six inches, with no month getting more than one inch in a normal year. The Mina Airport is at the southeastern end of town.

The USHCN station is at the private residence of the airport operator, who also runs a KOA type trailer/RV park. The airport is a simple dirt strip, so no runway to generate extra heat. I’ve been all over the USA looking at the USHCN network. In almost every station I visit, there’s some sort of surprise. Mina was no exception, and I discovered what Stevenson Screens are really used for: Read the rest of this entry »





MIT scientists baffled by global warming theory, contradicts scientific data

30 10 2008

Many people have pointed me to this story, I wanted to read about it a bit before posting it.  Almost two years ago, when this blog was in its very first month, I posted this story on the puzzling leveling off of global methane concentrations. FYI Methane has a “global warming potential” (GWP) 23-25 times that of CO2.

CDIAC has an interesting set of graphs on methane, the first of which shows that indeed global concentrations of CH4 through 2004 have leveled off:

This one on latitude -vs- concentration would surely seem to point to anthropogenic sources of CH4:

So here is yet another addition to the puzzle, which seems to point in the opposite direction:

MIT scientists baffled by global warming theory, contradicts scientific data

From: TG Daily By Rick C. Hodgin

Boston (MA) – Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature – and not the direct result of man’s contributions.

Methane – powerful greenhouse gas

The two lead authors of a paper published in this week’s Geophysical Review Letters, Matthew Rigby and Ronald Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, state that as a result of the increase, several million tons of new methane is present in the atmosphere.
Read the rest of this entry »





NOAA: U.S. breaks or ties 115 cold and sets 63 new snowfall records

30 10 2008

Of course many of you that live in this weather already know this, but there is an early start to winter this year, not only in the USA, but also in London, where it snowed in October for the first time in over 70 years.

So far, no mention of this broadly distributed U.S. record event in the mainstream media. There are a few individual mentions or record lows in Florida. See this Google News search.

Here, from NOAA’s  National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), is a list of these new or tied records for October 29th, 2008.

I find the -25 below in Alaska interesting, since it bested the old record by 4 degrees.

Here are the 115 new or tied low temperature records: Read the rest of this entry »





Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years

29 10 2008

Two Stories for you, one about the snow itself, and the other about climate law being debated and passed in the middle of the unusual snow.- Anthony

London has first October snow in over 70 years

From the Guardian

Cold snap causes flight cancellations while a motorway accident kills one driver and causes severe disruption

Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.

Snow settled on the ground in parts of the capital last night as temperatures dipped below zero. A Met Office spokeswoman said it was London’s first October snow since 1934.

For greater south-east of England it was the first October snow since 1974. High Wycombe in Buckinghamshire had 3cm (1.2 inches). One of the coldest temperatures recorded was -4.1C in Benson, Oxfordshire.

“It is unusual to have snow this early,” the Met spokeswoman said. “In October 2003 sleet and snow was recorded in Northern Ireland, Wales, south-west, north-west and north-east England and the Midlands, but it was mainly over higher ground.”

read the entire story here

How Parliament passed the Climate Bill (in spite of the weather)

Excerpt: Snow fell as the House of Commons debated Global Warming yesterday – the first October fall in the metropolis since 1922. The Mother of Parliaments was discussing the Mother of All Bills for the last time, in a marathon six hour session.

In order to combat a projected two degree centigrade rise in global temperature, the Climate Change Bill pledges the UK to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. The bill was receiving a third reading, which means both the last chance for both democratic scrutiny and consent. Read the rest of this entry »





UHI is real, in Reno at least

29 10 2008

A couple of days ago there was a guest post from Russ Steele citing a California study “Feeling the Heat” on global warming that just didn’t seem to add up.  One of the stations cited as having climate change related warming was Reno, NV. So, I decided to do a field experiment to test this. The results show clearly that UHI exists in Reno.

Here is what Russ wrote a couple fo days ago:

Feeling the Heat was published by Environment California a non-profit group a few weeks ago, claiming 2007 was the tenth warmest year on record and that the mountain west was experiencing above-average temperatures.  Full report here: Download feeling_the_heat_ca.pdf One of the examples given for the high western temperatures was Reno Nevada with a average temperature of 55.3 degrees in 2007, four degrees higher than the 30 years average temperatures from 1971 to 2000.

…Up front in the EC report the author dispatches UHI as having any influence on the climate change, citing studies by Easterling, PD Jones and Parker…

Well I decided to test this myself tonight, since I’m driving through Reno on my return home, I arranged an overnight stay. With me is my NIST calibrated data logger, NIST Calibrated temperature probe, a vehicle mounted Gill IR shield, my laptop computer, and my trusty vehicle. See my previous post “Road Kit

I chose Virginia Street as the transect route, since it remains relatively straight, level, and crosses all of Reno, including the built up southern suburbs and downtown. It is the original “main street” for Reno.

Here is the result of my South to North transect driving Virgina Street overlaid on a Google Earth image oriented to match the timeline of the transect:


Click for larger image

The weather tonight was perfect. Light winds, clear skies.

Read the rest of this entry »





EcoAmerica Poll: Climate skeptics are the majority, not the minority

27 10 2008

Only 18 percent of survey respondents strongly believe that climate change is real, human-caused and harmful.

Yes you read that correctly, it is all in this article on the Nature Conservancy webpage. And that goes along with what was discovered in June this year by the newspapers UK Guardian and Observer, which reported that:

The majority of the British public is still not convinced that climate change is caused by humans – and many others believe scientists are exaggerating the problem…

The Nature Conservancy story citing 18 percent, is citing the American Climate Values Survey (ACVS), conducted by the consulting group EcoAmerica It also found that political party affiliation is the single largest indicator as to whether people see climate change as a threat.

It seems it is all political, as there are some other fascinating tidbits. For example: Read the rest of this entry »





Shocker: Solar panel manufacturing creates potent GHG’s

27 10 2008
My 100KW solar panel project at a local school when I was a trustee - all for nothing now?

My 100KW solar panel project at a local school when I was a trustee - all for nothing now?

I used to be really big on solar energy, putting panels on my house as well as a local school when I was on the school board. But that may all be for naught. There’s a new boogeyman in the world of global warming: Nitrogen Trifluoride

NF3 molecule

On Lubos Motls The Reference Frame he has as pointed out that a greenhouse gas emitted during the production of solar panels and HDTVs, nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) that is used for cleaning the electronics, is about 17,000 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

The concentration of NF3 in the atmosphere was artificially increased by a factor of 20 during the last two decades. The measurements of the concentration surpassed the previous estimates by a factor of five.

According to the Scripps Institute; “ the present 5,400 tons in the atmosphere…is on the rise at 11 percent per year” - that will stay there for 700+ years – creates the equivalent warming of all Finland’s CO2 emissions.

According to Lubos, given the fact that the solar panels produce about the same percentage of the global energy as Finland, it is reasonable to guess that the state-of-the-art solar panels that would replace fossil fuels would cause a comparable amount of warming per Joule as fossil fuels.

So let’s just say – everything causes global warming, and leave it at that. Read the rest of this entry »





Chill in the air: record low temps in 10 states

26 10 2008

As many readers know, we’ve had an earlier than normal start to fall weather in the USA, and the cold just keeps on coming. Here is a summary of record low temperatures seen recently, courtesy of this website called IceAgeNow.

Record Lows – 2008
Record low temperatures in the United States

click here to see 2003, 2002, 2001 and 2000
Click here to see 2005, 20042005, 2006, 2007

See a table of some October 2008 temps below:

Read the rest of this entry »





New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month – cosmic rays at fault

25 10 2008

From a University of Waterloo press release (h/t to commenter Rob)

NASA, 2004 click image for more

Source: NASA, 2004 click image for more

WATERLOO, Ont. (Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008) — A University of Waterloo scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole — and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur in one or two weeks.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion, said that it was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth’s ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role. Read the rest of this entry »





Feeling the Heat, is it real or is it ASOS?

25 10 2008

Guest post by Russ Steele

(Note Russ was the very first volunteer for surfacestations.org, I’m traveling today, so I’ll comment later on this investigation. – Anthony)

Reno_ASOS_wide_view

Feeling the Heat was published by Environment California a non-profit group a few weeks ago, claiming 2007 was the tenth warmest year on record and that the mountain west was experiencing above-average temperatures.  Full report here: Download feeling_the_heat_ca.pdf One of the examples given for the high western temperatures was Reno Nevada with a average temperature of 55.3 degrees in 2007, four degrees higher than the 30 years average temperatures from 1971 to 2000. The EC report is concerned about the night time low temperatures rising higher than the 1971-2000 average, again citing Reno as an example, with an average minimum temperature of 40.7 degrees – more than five degrees higher than the 1971 to 2000 average.

Heat_min_temps_t11_2
Click for larger image

Read the rest of this entry »