More harbinger of the Northern Hemisphere winter to come?
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A bulldozer cleans snow on the Sichuan-Tibet road in Nyingchi, southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region Oct. 30, 2008. (Xinhua Photo) |
LHASA, Oct. 30 (Xinhua) — The death toll has risen to seven, and one person remains missing, as a result of the worst snowstorm on record in Tibet, local authorities said Thursday.
The seven people killed either frozen to death or were crushed by collapsing buildings. About 144,400 heads of livestock died in the storm, which also knocked out telecommunications and traffic in parts of Shannan prefecture.
In Lhunze County, 1,348 people stranded by damaged buildings or blocked roads had been rescued, the county government said. Rescue operation for the remaining 289 trapped was still underway.
The worst-hit county had 36 consecutive hours of snowfall from Sunday, with an average snow coverage of 1.5 meters. Four people died and one remained missing in the snowstorm.
The rescued people have been moved to other villages, sleeping in schools or government buildings.
A road linking Lhunze to Cuona County reopened on Thursday after 63 hours of snow clearing efforts of armed policemen and transportation staff.
Cuona had been isolated from the outside for three days due to the road blockage.
The Tibet regional civil affairs department has allocated relief materials such as clothes and tents to the affected areas.
h/t to Dr. Roger Pielke
If Tibet can’t handle a little snow and cold, what’s the outlook for the rest of us? Warmer weather is kinder weather; bring on global warming any day. Consider the alternative.
In the top right corner of the photo you can see the CO2-laden exhaust coming out of bulldozer as it clears the snow. Classic.
It’s going to be a cold, cold winter for the northern hemisphere. Brrr.
That’s just great. I’m due to go to Tibet in a couple of weeks.
The BBC is ignoring this, for now. 07-58 am UK time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/default.stm
Perry
[…] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/31/tibets-worst-snowstorm-ever-7-killed […]
Live it up! It’s going to be a loooong winter
I don’t understand this nonsense post’s about snow in this blog. Weather is different than climate.
For example, this snow storm in Tibet was fueled with a lot of moisture from a tropical cyclone in north Indian ocean. Another example, in Alpes last days there was a big snow accumulation for the date. But just a few days before there was a strong positive temperature anomaly in Alpes. This kind of posts are just that, nonsense madness, to excite the crowd. Even Al Gore with all its exaggerations and misrepresentations looks like a saint compared to this stuff.
REPLY: Listen up Jonas, and everyone else because I’m getting weary of having to explain this every time I post a weather event.
1. I’m a former TV meteorologist. Weather is my life. This blog has a long history of posting about weather events.
2. If I was on TV right now, I’d run video of this. It is a normal day for any TV weather report to show video of interesting or unusual weather around the world.
3. I said not one word about climate in the short one sentence intro. You are the one who thinks the post is about climate.
4. The post is categorized “weather”. Not climate, not politics, not Al Gore, and I take exception to your “nonsense” comparison of my reprinting a news story from Xinhua news agency to Al Gore fabrications. If I made an animated video of polar bears wandering the Gobi Desert, then you might have a case.
5. If you don’t like reading about weather events, find another blog to read, but don’t heap this rhetoric on me again simply because I report about weather. Read the masthead: “Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts”
To make it clearer, I’ve now edited the masthead to add weather and climate change to the list of items discussed.
Anthony Watts
Josh, comment at 22:18:50,
That would probably be Carbon Monoxide coming out of the exhaust (not CO2) a far deadlier gas. (Has been known to be used in suicides)
I see a disturbing consistency here…this harken’s back to the early ’08 storms that hit China proper [I would give you all links, but my best resource site has wussed out and scaled back posting ‘negative’ stories involving China…]. Those storms caused considerable havoc…collapsing homes, power outages, and a later storm that stranded millions [4.5+] just before their Lunar New Year.
While the storm event is remarkable [1m+ snowfall], it says as much about China [construction standards and infrastructure] as it does about the current state of the climate. If we head into a global cooling phase, countries like China [and the region in general…], configured for milder climate, will face considerable problems.
This will not bode well for China, or it’s southern neighbors. As this is a climate science site, I’ll leave it at that. Climate-driven geopolitical dynamics, as fascinating and scary as that subject can be, should be discussed elsewhere.
Jonas (03:56:53) :
“I don’t understand this nonsense post’s about snow in this blog. Weather is different than climate.”
If you look at the second line from the top of this page you will read “Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts.” It seems to me this post fits that mission statement inasmuch as there is are claims of “worst snowstorm on record in Tibet” and “144,400 heads of livestock died”. You are the first person to use the word climate in a reply, please administer one dope slap to yourself at your earliest convenience
“For example, this snow storm in Tibet was fueled with a lot of moisture from a tropical cyclone in north Indian ocean.”
Thank you for that addition, feel free to cancel the dope slap. I had only seen the comment (see my post in http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/30/chill-in-the-air-part-2-us-breaks-or-ties-115-of-cold-and-sets-63-new-snowfall-records/ ) “The wet season for Tibet is generally March to September, so should be soon coming to an end.”
Jonas (03:56:53) : says,
I don’t understand this nonsense post’s about snow in this blog. Weather is different than climate. This kind of posts are just that, nonsense madness, to excite the crowd.
I think you miss the point, remember the flooding in china which was headlined all over the globe, the BBC made a meal of it, this level of monsoon rain which was NOT unprecedented is also just weather but it is used by the AGW fanatics to promote global warming, reporting this WORST EVER snowstorm just levels the playing a little and indicates that these events are just weather and nothing to do with AGW which does NOT exist.
Parts of Alaska may well have just had the coldest October on record. Look at the temperature record for Fairbanks. High temperatures are generally below the normal low.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAFA/2008/10/1/MonthlyHistory.html
Governor Palin cringed in the debates when she was asked about global warming. Most likely the result of being coerced by McCain people into incorporating his flawed belief system into her answers.
Jonas: Even Al Gore with all its exaggerations and misrepresentations looks like a saint compared to this stuff.
Seriously? You must have exceedingly powerful AGW blinders on for Al Gore to look like a saint. What “exaggerations and misrepresentations” with regard to this posting are you even talking about?
Like zombies, the AGWer trolls come here, repeating their pet phrases like “weather is not climate”, hoping against hope as their AGW religion crumbles around them, to turn a few more humans (climate realists) into non-thinking zombies. Fortunately, science and the truth are on our side.
Feeding the
trollsbears only encourages them to raid the garbage bins more frequently.My prediction for October – UAH will come in below September at about +0.10.
Al Gore was right again……Global Warming = snow, snow, snow and more ice.
165 records were broke the other night for cold in the US, it’s global warming at it’s best.
I take exception to the dictum “weather is not climate”.
Weather is an instantaneous sampling of climate, i.e. all its measures should be within ( lets be statistical) 2sigma of the values given by climate. When it is very far off the scale of climate, one could, in principle calculate how probable/improbable this manifestation is.
Otherwise “climate” has no meaning. Thus the answer to comments “weather is not climate” when an unusual manifestation is reported is that one is not reporting the weather event per se, but how low a probability it represents.
When I was in grade school, back in the late 1940’s we learned that the climate of Greece was temperate. Climate was characterized as humid, dry, “continental”, i.e. very cold in winter/ very hot in summer ( Russia for example), tropical,etc.
The past year I have seen that a lot of classification progress has been made since then.
We are currently having in Athens, Greece, a very mild beginning of November, warm and humid, no rain for a month, temperatures 16 night to 26 in the day. Unusual? No. It has a folk name: donkey summer.
Let’s all give Jonas some credit for this: “Even Al Gore, with all its exaggerations and misrepresentations”. You are catching on Jonas. Now, what were you saying? Was his Nobel noble? Did his documentary deserve an Oscar?
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Climate modelers have gone back and forth between forecasting that Northern Europe will burn or freeze as a result of global warming. The current “climate” thinking seems to depend on the current “weather.”
El Nino is climate. La Nina is weather. Heat waves are climate. Cold spells are weather. Hurricane intensity is now measured by the amount of coverage on cable news, which is considerably larger than 50 years ago.
The AGW true believers cannot stand for weather to be discussed unless they can manipulate it into supporting their apocalyptic faith.
That a true believer can now contain the two ideas- Gore is a liar and AGW is still happening is an improvement, however. We may get through this cascade without destroying the world economy and damaging the environment even more.
The definition of ‘climate’
1. The prevailing ‘weather’ conditions in a particular region
2. A region having certain ‘weather’ conditions ie; lives in a cold climate.
To say weather isn’t climate is like saying milk isn’t dairy.
As we speak here in NE Oregon,I am waiting for the first big snow of the Season.
(Fall) putting studs on today. I am expecting another hard winter…
Patrick: El Nino is climate. La Nina is weather. Heat waves are climate. Cold spells are weather. Hurricane intensity is now measured by the amount of coverage on cable news, which is considerably larger than 50 years ago.
And when all else fails, they can always blame it on “climate chaos”, the mother of all AGW ideology phrases. The more they lie, the more they have to lie to cover up the lies. Oh, what a tangled web they weave.
Why would it be a harbinger? According to the satellites through Sept (and it would take a nearly unprecedented fall to change in Oct), the Northern Hemisphere temperatures are above normal. Maybe we could get a post on the heat waves in the Northern Plains, western Russia, and Greenland? Really, the only thing climatologically interesting about the eastern US, London and this snowfall is that the long-wave pattern is very amplified at the moment.
REPLY: Point me to a news article, such as the one from Xinhua I posted here, and I’ll put it up for discussion. – Anthony
Climate vs weather.
This layman’s view is that climate describes the general range of weather one can expect in an area. It does not exclude extremes of weather on a very short term basis. Weather is the description of the current conditions.
Douglas DC don’t get over excited this winter could go two ways right now:
1. The East Coast and Mid-West will have a hard, cold winter.
2. There will be a trough in the PNW and the East with a ridge in the middle giving the east coast and the PNW a harsh winter.
To Jonas,
Apparently someone didn’t pay attention in science class. If you knew anything about how weather and climate work then you’d know that weather events can signal large-scale changes that are slowly taking place with the climate.
Jonas (03:56:53).
There is always positive an negative temperature anomalies. Local anomalies isn’t that interresting. Annual temperature anomalies for larger areas are more interresting, as well as monthly temperature anomalies for the whole earth is interresting for those interresting in temperature change — often called climate change (one definition of CLIMATE is 100 years of average weather).
Interresting due to the linked 2007 news article about lack of snow in the Alps is *not* any single temperature anomaly but the fact that snow didn’t melt much this summer and rapidly increases in the Alps. This makes the article looks like crap, and any article written as the lie anthropogenic global warming is real I think should be highlighted as crap!
Mangan (11:17:06) :
“Local anomalies isn’t that interresting.”
They are if you live where those anomolies are happening!
Fred
Its true that there has been warmth in sep-oct all the way from eastern europe over Siberia to northern China. This warmth period as last yeat apeared when very big areas of the arctic was ice free and heat from the upper layers of the arctic ocean then was released to the atmosphere.
Even though this has kept huuuge areas of Siberia etc warm, global temperatures has not risen enourmesly, just a little in sep-oct. This is because of all the cold we see elsewhere: West europe, Africa, southern Asia, over many oceans, Ecpecially in the south, near Antarctica. Also South america, Latin america has been cold in the period.
A little black/white: The cold evidence we see appears to me to be the real news, because the warmth over Siberia is probably most due to the thinner ice/the polar hole that originates from events happening in previous years, thin ice etc. The thin ice from 2007 (originating from winds, AMO etc) dictated that more would melt this year and thus that we would have a warm siberia. The news is that most of the rest of the world is cooling.
The heat lost from the polar sea is lost on the longer term, so its just a short sighted event too.
What very very interesting now is, the the polar hole is closed, Siberia is switching from warmt to cold very rapidly, see:
Europe: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
China: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp5.html
Compare first coming weeks with next coming weeks
Do this for Africa, Southerns asia etc too
Actualy, the topitc of the thread here, the Tibet storm in principle could be a result of this switch WARMER than usual to COLDER than usual over short period?
Anyway Fred, i think we will see that the real news is eminent cooling now, and i believe now that La Nina starts in the pacific too, we will see temperatures within 6 months that goes colder than anything we have seen in 2008, globaly. But yes, that is just my personal view, correct.
Mary Hinge: “[Local anomalies are interresting] if you live where those anomolies are happening!”
Phew! In a thread before I showed you proof that your words [are incorrect], and you repeated the [incorrect statement] instead of argued my answers, and this argument must be the most [incorrect] I’ve seen after Jonas criticism that Watts information isn’t interresting to people in general.
You suggest that positive and negative temperature anomalies in the Alps shall be reported becasuse weather is interresting for those who lives there!
Actually Jonas criticized Anthony for posting things which isn’t interresting in a climate context, and he used temperature anomalies as an example of something similar (but not so interresting) in the opposite direction.
So what do you mean when you argue that local temperature anomalies are relevant issues for Anthomy’s blog? (Anthony’s post about loads of extreme temperature records occuring was interresting though.)
All I say (to Jonas; your comment I don’t understand) is that snow and ice is relevant in a climate debate context where lack of snow alarmist articles like this are published:
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/travel/Artificial_snow_might_not_save_resorts.html?siteSect=414&sid=8508019
[REPLY – A bit of restraint is called for. Besides, it enhances effect. ~ Evan]
Here the development of Siberia temperatures over 3 weeks. This will have quite an effect on global temperatures:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/opdaterede-sol-is-hav-temp-grafer-osv–d12-e424-s100.php#post_8656
Anthony – you don’t have to use any of these as they are getting dated already, but they are examples of things that were going on at the same time as the NY/NJ/PA and London snowfalls. And while I can understand your frustration with comments such as from Jonas, you have to realize that a large majority of your “weather” posts are about colder than normal events (just check October’s entries under the “weather” category). That really blurs the line between the climate change skeptic part of your blog, and what you perceive or intend to be just the weather entries.
Moscow’s warmest October on record:
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081101/118088549.html
(maybe UHI?)
Here’s a couple of human-interest type stories about the heat in the SW US:
Melting candy could be problem in Valley this Halloween
http://www.ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=983127&r=1
Halloween high of 92 will make the going gooey
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2008/10/31/20081031Weather1031.html
Douglas — the Oregon Department of Transportation is requiring Sno Park permits 2 weeks earlier this year in an attempt to recoup some of last year’s costs when record snowfall forced ODOT to spend $7 million over its budget for snow removal on state highways and Sno-Park areas.
http://westinstenv.org/news/2008/11/01/sno-park-permits-required-two-weeks-earlier-this-year/
Fred (12:42:50) :
Well, as human interest stories I would not rate melting candy with 90F on the same balance with 7 deaths from 1.5 meters of snow, or road accidents from early snowfall.
As I said above the degree of deviation of the local weather sampling from the climate of the region is what makes it worthy of notice. I would not think that warmth in the SW of the US is so much different of average temperatures for the time and the region. It is not a binary system.
AGW again, it can’t be anything else…
Why global warming was rebranded to climate change some years ago? You can blame climate change for anything, any type of extreme weather, including severe cold snaps or snowstorms. In the case of global warming you can’t do that, no one will accept any association between catastrophic warming and a heavy snowstorm.
Unfortunately, this will give a “wonderful” opportunity for the media to use all unusual (or extreme) weather events for spreading fear about an oncoming “climate apocalypse”.
Maybe one of the greatest evidence for this rebranding campaign can be seen on Google Trends: Search volume for global warming is decreasing slightly since early 2007, while ä href=”http://www.google.com/trends?q=climate+change&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0″>climate change is still steady.
Fred, the Moscow warm i have explained above.
Fred: What is your quest?
You know that the whole media spectra is hyping every possible and impossible kind of warming news or warming event.
Why on earth do you have a problem when there is a blog that tries to focus on the cool events too??????
If you want equality in the media, GOGOGO and make the rest of the media present the COOL events too.
If you succeed, there will no longer be need for theese blogs, and many of us can use our time differently. You would be a hero.
This is O.T. but take a look at http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html where the Central England Temperature average for October has just been published at 9.7C, that is -0.7C off the long term average. It’s freezing in Scotland too – the Pink footed Geese are heading south in numbers!
Being an erudite Englishman, the first thing that caught my eye was the gormless phrase “Weather is different than climate.”
The phrase “This differs from that” explains my early irritation with the Jonas post.
Who would say “This differs than that”? It does not make sense.
Equally, the phrase “This differs to that” also is senseless.
Therefore, in the interests of avoiding further blights on my language. please note that the phrase “This differs from that” is the key to understanding that the grammatically correct phrasing should be “Weather is different FROM climate.”
Have you got that Jonas? Oh, by the way, yes, we do know that. That’s because we understand language and numbers.
Remember this. Britain and America are two nations, divided by a common language!
Your mindset suggest to me that, for you, simple sums are an indecipherable foreign language. Otherwise you would not be supporting AGW. You probably have dyscalculia. Sorry about that.
Perry
Mangan (12:04:53) :
I haven’t a clue what your trying to say here. I was just stating that an anomoly is of more interest if you are being affected by it, surely you must agree with that or is it so ingrained in you that you have to disagree (gain say) with anything I have to say?
Les Francis (04:27:10) :
Josh, comment at 22:18:50,
That would probably be Carbon Monoxide coming out of the exhaust (not CO2) a far deadlier gas. (Has been known to be used in suicides)
Actually, the exhaust would be CO2 and H2O, with some CO mixed in. What you are seeing in the photo is carbon soot, which will settle on the snow causing it to melt and reduce the earth’s albedo. I don’t see any skiers in the photo, but it’s still early in the season.
Perry Debell (14:23:28) :
Being an erudite Englishman, the first thing that caught my eye was the gormless phrase “Weather is different than climate.” . . .
I wasn’t going to comment on the grammar, but hooray. ‘Different’ seems more a sideways distinction, apples/oranges, red/green, etc. ‘Than’ is vertical, comparing degrees of similar things – larger/smaller, more/less, red/pink. I have found, however, that sometimes ‘different from’ leads to some pretty awkward constructions.
Apart than that, you Brits sure are lucky you have us Colonials out here to preserve the purity of the language.
It might not be a bad idea to post some of those stories about warming. The one about halloween candy melting would certainly get alot of comments. So lame.
I cannot understand how people cannot tell the difference between bulldozers and front-end loaders. Hint, bulldozers have tracks, like tanks.
REPLY: Probably due to it being written by the Chinese at Xinhua. That is their caption – Anthony
Looks like Sonora and Tioga passes are closed through the Sierra as of today. Not sure if they will bother reopening them, they usually don’t after November 1st once they close due to snow. Tioga was closed briefly in October but they cleared it.
I did a little spreadsheet today and graphed it out. Fairbanks, AK had only two days with highs above “average” for the date in the month of October. They had only five days with a low temperature above the “average” for the date. In the last 15 days the daily high temperature has reached as high as the “normal” daily mean temperature only once. It is cold up there this month. Daily mean temperatures are currently running consistently 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The ground is going to freeze deeper than normal this year, I think.
Both the NOAA and the Environment Canada are predicting warmer than normal winters.
Does anyone have info on the accuracy of these short term models, from past years? Predicted vs actual?
Anthony these posts are incredibly important to the Climate Change debate and you have the only site that routinely posts about this side of the issue. In a media world were every heat wave in the middle of July is a sign of the coming apocalypse it is refreshing to see what the media intentionally omits. Please keep these posts coming because you can discuss climate change until you are blue in the face and these sort of weather events is all the average person uses to judge what is happening. I am sure to many who have been brainwashed by Al Gore the mere existence of extreme cold weather events will give them pause and maybe, just maybe persuade them to be more skeptical of the hysterical rhetoric pushed by the AGW extremists. Thanks again and keep them coming.
Al Gore looks like A saint. Man this is best laugh I’ve had all day .Let me get this straight .A major snowstorm is not really news worthy because it has tropical moisture .Then why is it that the hurricanes of 2005,especially Katrina which directly hit Mississippi not New Orleans,why is that news worthy? It was caused by a at one time tropical storm.
Anthony,
I can prove that this snow storm is caused by CO2.
find a pop dispenser and open the valve on the co2 can
place your hand in front of the gas coming out, it feels cold, very cold!
ICE COLD!!!! Yep that is it alright TOO much CO2 in the air is causing
this cold climate change …..
Thanks for your all your hard work.
please use/ware a helmet when banging head on wall !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mike McMillan (14:59:25) :
Mike. HELP PLEASE!!! The nutters are running amok
Local authorities have ordered employees to stop using the words and phrases on documents and when communicating with members of the public and to rely on wordier alternatives instead.
The ban has infuriated classical scholars who say it is diluting the world’s richest language and is the “linguistic equivalent of ethnic cleansing”.
Bournemouth Council, which has the Latin motto Pulchritudo et Salubritas, meaning beauty and health, has listed 19 terms it no longer considers acceptable for use.
This includes bona fide, eg (exempli gratia), prima facie, ad lib or ad libitum, etc or et cetera, ie or id est, inter alia, NB or nota bene, per, per se, pro rata, quid pro quo, vis-a-vis, vice versa and even via.
Its list of more verbose alternatives, includes “for this special purpose”, in place of ad hoc and “existing condition” or “state of things”, instead of status quo.
In instructions to staff, the council said: “Not everyone knows Latin. Many readers do not have English as their first language so using Latin can be particularly difficult.”
The details of banned words have emerged in documents obtained from councils by the Sunday Telegraph under The Freedom of Information Act.
Of other local authorities to prohibit the use of Latin, Salisbury Council has asked staff to avoid the phrases ad hoc, ergo and QED (quod erat demonstrandum), while Fife Council has also banned ad hoc as well as ex officio.
Professor Mary Beard, a professor of Classics at the University of Cambridge said: “This is absolute bonkers and the linguistic equivalent of ethnic cleansing. English is and always has been a language full of foreign words. It has never been an ethnically pure language.”
Dr Peter Jones, co-founder of the charity Friends of Classics said “This sort of thing sends out the message that language is about nothing more than the communication of very basic information in the manner of a railway timetable.
“But it is about much more than that. The great strength of English is that it has a massive infusion of Latin. We have a very rich lexicon with almost two sets of words for everything.
“To try and wipe out the richness does a great disservice to the language. It demeans it. I am all for immigrants raising their sights not lowering them. Plain English and Latin phrasing are not diametrically opposed concepts.”
Henry Mount the author of the bestselling book Amo, Amos, Amat and All That, a lighthearted guide to the language, said: “Latin words and phrases can often sum up thoughts and ideas more often that the alternatives which are put forward. They are tremendously useful, quicker and nicer sounding.
“They are also English words. You will find etc or et cetera in an English dictionary complete with its explanation.”
However, the Plain English Campaign has congratulated the councils for introducing the bans.
Marie Clair, its spokesman, said: “If you look at the diversity of all our communities you have got people for whom English is a second language. They might mistake eg for egg and little things like that can confuse people.
“At the same time it is important to remember that the national literacy level is about 12 years old and the vast majority of people hardly ever use these terms.
“It is far better to use words people understand. Often people in power are using the words because they want to feel self important. It is not right that voters should suffer because of some official’s ego.”
Several councils, including Aberdeenshire, and Blackburn and Darwen, have also prohibited the use of the French phrase in lieu, while many local authorities have drawn up lists of English words, which cannot be used as they are considered politically incorrect.
Amber Valley Council, in Derbyshire, has told staff it is no longer acceptable to use language “that portrays once sex as subordinate to the other”.
Staff have been instructed to say “synthetic” rather than “man made”, “lay person” instead of “lay man”, “people in general” in place of “man in the street”, “one person show” rather than “one man show” and “ancestors” instead of “forefathers”.
Broadland Council, in Norfolk, has banned “housewife” and replaced it with “homemaker” and asked staff to refer to “staffing” rather than “manning” levels.
Several councils including Blyth Valley and Weymouth have banned the phrase disabled toilet and disabled parking because they imply that the facilities themselves are disabled. They have renamed them accessible.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3362150/Councils-ban-elitist-and-discriminatory-Latin-phrases.html
The Plain English Campaign is now off my Xmas card list and on the hit list. Stupid, cretinous, useless bunch of STI infected scum suckers, who have no more right to exist than poxed up offspring of sibling parents.
One of these days I’ll write what I really mean.
Perry
Roger, that CET October anomaly of Philip Eden’s is wrong – it’s 0.5. He also got his forecast for October very wrong too. He said that it would be an anomaly of +1.3 degrees C.
It’s always interesting to observe how fast someone call troll to another. I do not care. Maybe it is a pleasure in this context. If I go a AGW fanatics blog and criticize the kidney stones caused by global warming and other stuff like that, they call me troll. If I come here to explain why this snowstorm doesn’t mean much, here they call me troll too. Basically the discussion today is this, fanatics on both sides, and who criticizes the excesses of some and others is called a troll.
I just tried to explain why an event of snow does not mean much, and explained the origin of this particular one. Actually, for those who don’t know, a big snowstorm don’t like extreme cold. And forecast to the next weeks for Asia and Eastern Europe show temperatures well above average. So, what has this event so special ? Not too much. It’s weather.
@Jonas (03:42:36) :
As a huge early snowstorm knocked out my power this week for several days, I have been playing catch up with the comments.
Everyone here KNOWS that there is a difference between weather and climate. No need to beat that horse any deader. HOWEVER, as was correctly pointed out to you that while weather is not climate, climate is certainly weather.
A single freak snow storm is weather as is a single Cat 5 hurricane or a single busy hurricane season. However when you have several freak snowstorms, or several seasons of high (or low) hurricane activity.
What you are misreading here is that several factors appear to be converging to indicate a emerging cooling trend and skeptics are naturally excited they could be vindicated after being called all sorts of nasty things by the AGW believers; climate criminals being among the least of them.
Science will truth out eventually and while I have become very distrustful of any forecast model that extends beyond 3-days, I acknowledge that you still trust the models . Good luck with that and we will know if your trust in the forecast for Asia and East Europe is misplaced or not.
These are exciting times for skeptics, eh?
I don’t understand this nonsense about snow post. Snow is different from climate. For example, this snow storm in Tibet was fueled with a lot of pan-atlantic capitalism from a recent buy-out in the andes. Another example is the french revolution. But just days before there was a strong invasion by the mog nols. This kind of post are just that, nonsense madness to exit the crowd. Even Al Gore with all his offensive campaigns across the blighted land looks like a saint compared to this stuff. In short, mr Watts, your recent post has nothing to do with figure skating, and I WILL NOT STAND FOR IT!
Furthermore, livingrooms shall no longer contain anything other than a bathtub. It is a livingroom, and to use it for anything other than taking baths is nonsense madness!
Jonas (03:42:36) I know of a Jonas who could have written this eloquent comment. R U a refu G of RR?
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Jonas (03:42:36) That Jonas is fair minded and not just a skosh.
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Jonas (03:42:36) :
Trollers are people who post a comment designed to elicit many replies. Note that the root is troll, as in to fish, not troll, as creature under a bridge. Trolls are often people who crave recognition of any sort, positive or negative.
Some of the best posts garner essentially no replies because they are so complete and correct there is nothing to add. Some of my USENET posts from the 1980s have wound up in Web pages a decade later.
Your one contribution to this “nonsense post” was diluted by ignoring the purpose of this blog and insulting its owner. You have a long ways to go to undo the ill will you brought here.
Thanks for that Steve. That would explain why he reports in the Sunday Telegraph that October came in slightly cooler than average. 0.5C higher would have brought a headline, but 0.5C lower is buried and glossed over in the text!
I think when I say “nonsense” doesn’t mean insulting anyone. It is just that, nonsense. I like this blog and Anthony work at surfacestation.org (actually I do something similar in my country as I had publicly denounced some official weather stations in poor conditions) but I think I have freedom to say that some posts about snow are nonsense. Actually, this one isn’t the worst, a fee weeks ago (September 1) there was another reference to snow in Kenya that wasn’t snow at all, it was a hail thunderstorms, as anyone who have access to NCEP reanalysis of 850hpa temperatures for example can confirm. Media talk about snow, but media are crazy with everything, and believe me, it isn’t just with global warming, if some day we really enter a global cooling phase, media will be crazy with cooling as they are today with warming. My comment was a criticism for those who sometimes are nonsense with cooling as some others and media are with warming. Just that. Far away from insulting.
For me, this conversation can stop here, and I thank Anthony response.
Roger. You can keep an eye on the Central England Temperature here http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html Though don’t take any notice of November’s as it’s always ‘out’ until the third week of the month.
Bizarrely, they added the word “provisional” next to it this evening. That word wasn’t there earlier.
Perry, I understand your sentiments and to a certain extent agree, but you must admit that some people hide their ignorance behind Latin and convoluted phrases. The Councils’ responses are completely ridiculous, however, because, the phrases they have banned are a part of our common usage. It is, in all events, an example of reductio ad absurdum.
It would seem the British local governmental answer to ignorance is more ignorance, dumbing down the language ad nauseam to meet the lowest common denominator.
At a higher level, they vote for an AGW measure right in the midst of the worst snowstorm they’ve had in decades. And a hearty QSDF to them.
Certainly weather and climate are not quite the same, but massive RECORD low temperatures are more climate than weather.
Mary Hinge (14:36:41): “I haven’t a clue what your trying to say here. I was just stating that an anomoly is of more interest if you are being affected by it surely you must agree with that or is it so ingrained in you that you have to disagree (gain say) with anything I have to say?”
I’m sorry you don’t understand, but I did agree on that.
My comment, which you answered, was to Jonas who suggests that positive temperature anomaly in the Alps at a particular time is as non-relevant for this blog as snow.
I replied with an explanation why snow is important in this context.
I don’t know what your comment that temperature anomaly is important for local population has to do with this discussion?
Just wanted to update everyone on the SOI. It’s still very positive for October: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi.gif
Positive=La Nina. Negative = El Nino.
It would appear we are definitely headed for another decent La Nina event this winter.
MattN
Yes, the SOI and other factors leaves no doubt, we have a new La Nina.
The upstarting La Nina looks like this 3 nov:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.11.3.2008.gif
Normaly its very dificult to predict temperature a few weeks ahead at some geographical spot. This is because ofr instance, the route of a low pressure can change a little and then thing can turn out very unexpected.
But.
Whats interesting is that practically all parts of the worlds forecasts for middle november is agreeing: Its going to get a lot colder in november.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/clim.html
Updated daily, my comments are valid for today 4 nov.
Check out South Amerca… Very clearly the wholo continent cools markedly within 14 days. This is very interesting because:
1) The level to begin with was a South america slightly cold.
2) South America is approaching its summer…
Cold everywhere on the globe mid november: Siberia, China, India, Africa etc.
And then now the la Nina.
Unless forecasts worldwide changes A LOT, we will see global temperatures fall dramatically nov-dec-jan. Very exciting…
– another thing:
VERY likely to be a coincidence.. but its funny though:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.11.3.2008.gif
Clearly the PDO is very strong right now. Its just a little funny that the same sst pattern can be spotted in the atlantic – a kind of “The atlantic pdo pattern” a U-turn of cold right now freezing UK, Spain and Marokko, just like Washinton, Oregon and California at the pacific. These sst shift all the time so .. But it looks funny.
Mangan (03:30:54) :
“My comment, which you answered, was to Jonas…..”
I haven’t got a problem but the reply was definately directed at me. Let’s just call it a misunderstanding.
“I don’t know what your comment that temperature anomaly is important for local population has to do with this discussion?”
Is this also directed at Jonas? I didn’t mention any temperature anomoly but my input is valid on this discussion as this is a ‘high snowfall’ anomoly.
MattN (18:15:57) :
“It would appear we are definitely headed for another decent La Nina event this winter.”
A La Nina this winter is unlikely, only the NOAA models are showing La Nina conditions, NASA, UKMET, POAMA, Japanese Met Office and ECMWF models show neutral conditions into the NH spring.
Frank. Lansner (03:45:17)
Unless forecasts worldwide changes A LOT, we will see global temperatures fall dramatically nov-dec-jan. Very exciting…
I’m not sure where you get this from. Global temperatures (or anomalies) are, without doubt, rising following the demise of the recent La Nina. There is a possibility that a weak La Nina may emerge in early 2009 but it’s not likely to amount to much and we can expect to see anomalies back to 2006/2007 levels in the near future.
This whole global cooling nonsense has been completely overblown and a number of people are going to be left with egg on their faces pretty shortly.
Incidentally I haven’t noticed anyone refer to the AMSU temeprature record recently, I wonder why that is?
John Finn
I just look at the ordinary forecasts, here for south America:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp8.html
It shows that we now have anomaly around zero, but next week temperatures will dive markedly -even though south america is headed for summer. So anomalies will go quite negative if the forecast is not totaly wrong.
In general ive have checked all continents from simple forecasts and find that temperature globaly appear to be headed for a dive.
Then ON TOP OF THAT a La Nina seems to start. Still if you ar right that its only a vague La Nina, its likely to cool rather than warm.
Then you mentioning AMSU temp. Please look at my previous post in the present thread. The whole Siberia ha been affected by the open polar waters, of course. Exactly as last year sep-oct where AMSU was raising EVEN THOUGH there was a strong La nina at that time.
In the forecasts now that the polar ice hole is gone, Siberia temperatures are diving fast. This of course will affect upcoming AMSU / global temp.
– and wonder why no alarmists mentions the global ice extension right now. Its extremely near zero: -0,2 imo kvm.
There is a tendensy that alarmist mentions warm stories and vice versa. But the thing is, in the media even though temperatures globaly has not risen in 10 years, we constantly hear warming news as though there where still warming going on. Therefore it 100% ok that some blogs makes it clear that there are also cooling stories.
If you want a balance in the media, promote the cooling stories.
Frank. Lansner (02:37:25) :
“Siberia temperatures are diving fast”
….like they do every winter..
He was referring to the anomaly. #B^1
He was referring to the anomaly.
Are the anomalies [siberian temps] falling ?
John, compared to a few weeks ago there was hardly any temperatures below zero in Siberia. This has changed, anomalies has dived some.
But in the northen Siberia forecasts has changed so right now it looks like only a moderate fall.
In southern Siberia and China however, the temperaturefalls by mid november will be up to 10 degrees C in a week. This is much faster than anomali trends, and – unless these tendensies change – we will see “blue” anomalies in this huge area too.
That will leave us with cool south america, afrika, most of asia and then Autstralia around zero, north america and perhaps europe with just a slight warm anonali.
Forecasts change all the time, so lets see. But if they have any value, yes there is a cooling trend for around 15-20 nov.
But lets wait and see. it was not my intend to use so much writings about this, i just told as is true, that forecasts says cooling. Lets see if it holds.
Frank. Lansner (02:47:33) :
“- and wonder why no alarmists mentions the global ice extension right now. Its extremely near zero: -0,2 imo kvm.”
You really are a drama queen aren’t you. So the global ice anomoly is slightly below the mean……wow
evanjones (10:17:38) :
“He was referring to the anomaly. #B^1”
As far as I can tell Siberia has warm and cold anomolies, it covers a very large area. You can always ask Sarah Palin, she can see it from her house apparently!
John, compared to a few weeks ago there was hardly any temperatures below zero in Siberia. This has changed, anomalies has dived some.
But in the northen Siberia forecasts has changed so right now it looks like only a moderate fall.
Do you mean temperatures or anomalies. Temperatures are obviously going to fall because Siberia is heading into winter. But temperatures are still above the seasonal norm. In other words temperature anomalies are high. That as far as I can tell is still the case. Just as Arctic anomalies are still high. In fact most of They might not be as high as last year but, make no mistake, the Arctic temps are still well above the long-term (30 year) mean. Whether they are above what they were in the 1930s is another matter.
But, like it or not, most of the NH is above the long term average.
Again, 30 years isn’t long term by any stretch of the imagination.
Mary Hinge,
you write:
”
Frank. Lansner (02:47:33) :
“- and wonder why no alarmists mentions the global ice extension right now. Its extremely near zero: -0,2 imo kvm.”
You really are a drama queen aren’t you. So the global ice anomoly is slightly below the mean……wow
”
Honestly ice anormaly around zero is not much of a party for 30 years of “DISARSTEROUS CATASTROPHAL CO2 WARMING” is it?
No exactly, there is no drama, correct.
John, arctic temperatures 2008 have been slightly under normal 1958-08 for many months until august when the thin ice melted (!!). THEN of course temperatures rose as a result of sudden open polar ocean (much warmer than ice) that lost a lot of heat to the arctic atmosphere and Siberia. This is in no way interesting if you want to understand the actual trend of global temperatures as respond for example to the state the sun is in right now, and whats going to happen ahead. The polar heat was a unavoidable happenening due to the unusual thin ice.
Now, John, we dont agree fully whats most like for temperatures in the coming weeks, but let it be, we cant change them anyway 😉
I read the forecasts as mostly cooling, you dont. And?
Frank. Lansner (02:37:25) :
“Then ON TOP OF THAT a La Nina seems to start. ”
Still no indication of a developing La Nina, this is the latest SST anomoly map.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.11.6.2008.gif
If a La Nina does develop it will be a very weak event compared to last years.
Les Francis (04:27:10) :
Josh, comment at 22:18:50,
“That would probably be Carbon Monoxide coming out of the exhaust (not CO2) a far deadlier gas. (Has been known to be used in suicides).”
Actually, Les, Carbon Dioxide is a major component of diesel exhaust. But you are correct, Carbon Monoxide is also a component of diesel exhaust.
– Josh
Frank (Lansner)
I’m not having a go at you in particular. There are a number of contributors on both sides of the AGW debate who simply post incorrect information. You are by no means the worst. Many have been talking about significant imminent cooling and suggesting that the Arctic is undergoing a downturn in temperatures. It’s NOT!
The Arctic is currently much warmer than normal and has been for some time. Look at any of the anomaly plots, satellite data or surface data. They all tell the same story. The Arctic is much warmer than the 30 year mean.
Now you are suggesting that the Arctic may be about to cool. Perhaps it is – but it would need to cool a significant amount just to get back to mid-1990s levels.
Despite the recent La Nina, solar minimum, PDO switch and so on ALL temperature data shows that the world is currently still warmer than the long term average and, to be honest, I don’t see any evidence that this is going to change significantly in the near future.
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