Tendency, Convenient Mistakes, and the Importance of Physical Reasoning.

by Pat Frank Last February 7, statistician Richard Booth, Ph.D. (hereinafter, Rich) posted a very long critique titled, What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty” which is very critical of the GCM air temperature projection emulator in my paper. He was also very critical of the notion of…

Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong

12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections in light of error propagation and uncertainty analysis, freely available here. Four days later, Roy Spencer posted a critique of my analysis at WUWT, here…

Do Models Run Hot Or Not? A Process Control View

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction This short essay was prompted by a recent article regarding improvements to uncertainty in a global mean temperature estimate.[1] However, much bandwidth has been spilt lately in the related topic of error propagation [2, 3, 4], and so a small portion of this essay in its concluding remarks is…

A Stove Top Analogy to Climate Models

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog September 13th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Have you ever wondered, “How can we predict global average temperature change when we don’t even know what the global average temperature is?” Or maybe, “How can climate models produce any meaningful forecasts when they have such large errors in…

Proxy Science and Proxy Pseudo-Science

Guest post by Pat Frank It’s become very clear that most published proxy thermometry since 1998 [1] is not at all science, and most thoroughly so because Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick revealed its foundation in ad hoc statistical numerology. Awhile back, Michael Tobis and I had a conversation here at WUWT about the non-science…