Climate Scientists Admit Clouds are Still a Big Unknown

Admitting some cloud error is as close as most climate modellers come to admitting their projections are not fit for purpose. Note the image is from Pat Frank’s paper about…

Tendency, Convenient Mistakes, and the Importance of Physical Reasoning.

by Pat Frank Last February 7, statistician Richard Booth, Ph.D. (hereinafter, Rich) posted a very long critique titled, What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators,…

Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong

12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections…

Do Models Run Hot Or Not? A Process Control View

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction This short essay was prompted by a recent article regarding improvements to uncertainty in a global mean temperature estimate.[1] However, much bandwidth has been…

Emulation, ±4 W/m² Long Wave Cloud Forcing Error, and Meaning

Guest post by Pat Frank My September 7 post describing the recent paper published in Frontiers in Earth Science on GCM physical error analysis attracted a lot of attention, consisting…

How error propagation works with differential equations (and GCMs)

guest post by Nick Stokes There has been a lot of discussion lately of error propagation in climate models, eg here and here. I have spent much of my professional…

A Stove Top Analogy to Climate Models

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog September 13th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Have you ever wondered, “How can we predict global average temperature change when we don’t…

Additional Comments on the Frank (2019) “Propagation of Error” Paper

From Dr Roy Spencer’s Blog September 12th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: This post has undergone a few revisions as I try to be more precise in…

Critique of “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Predictions”

From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog September 11th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. I’ve been asked for my opinion by several people about this new published paper by Stanford…

Proxy Science and Proxy Pseudo-Science

Guest post by Pat Frank It’s become very clear that most published proxy thermometry since 1998 [1] is not at all science, and most thoroughly so because Steve McIntyre and…

"Earth itself is telling us there’s nothing to worry about in doubled, or even quadrupled, atmospheric CO2"

Readers may recall Pat Franks’s excellent essay on uncertainty in the temperature record.  He emailed me about this new essay he posted on the Air Vent, with suggestions I cover…

The Metrology of Thermometers

For those that don’t notice, this is about metrology, not meteorology, though meteorology uses the final product. Metrology is the science of measurement. Since we had this recent paper from…