Guest Essay by Kip Hansen This essay is the third and last in a series of essays about Averages — their use and misuse. My interest is in the logical and scientific errors, the informational errors, that can result from what I have playfully coined “The Laws of Averages”. Averages As both the…
Current peer review science, by attempting to explain away model failure, in fact confirms that the science is wrong Guest essay by David M. Hoffer It has become a favorite tactic amongst trolls to declare their belief in peer reviewed science. With this simple strategy, they at once excuse themselves from the need to know…
I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1 The lead…
Scientific understanding and faith simultaneously on display: ‘For climatologists, the search for an irrefutable “sign” of anthropogenic warming has assumed an almost Biblical intensity.’ – Fred Pearce, New Scientist, October 1996 This being near Climategate time, it is worth reflecting upon that heady time in late November 2009 when the world of climate science saw…
‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published…
While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this: Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be…
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball “If you torture the data enough, nature will always confess” – Ronald Coase. Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. – Anonymous. Climatology is the study of average weather over time or in a region. It is very different than Climate Science, which is the study by…
Dr. Judith Curry lets an announcement slip in comments.
From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users…
New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with time? Graph above by Dr. Roy Spencer Increasing mathematical uncertainty from initial starting conditions is…