I offer @ClimateOfGavin help understanding events -vs- trends

Yesterday, when Climategate 3 was released, the ever flippant Dr. Gavin Schmidt made this Tweet in response:

Gavin_Climate_stick

Source: Google Trends, searching the word “climategate” from December 2009 to March 2013 http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Climategate&date=12%2F2009%2040m&cmpt=q

It seems that Dr. Schmidt doesn’t understand the difference between events and trends. Climategate was an event, so of course it was represented by an event interest spike. For example, here’s a weather event, Hurricane Katrina, which also shows a “reverse hockey stick” when the dataset is cropped as Dr. Schmidt’s graph was:

Google_katrina

Source: Google Trends, searching the words “Hurricane Katrina” from Sept 2005 http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Hurricane%20Katrina&date=9%2F2005%2089m&cmpt=q

Now, this is a trend in Google, it shows the “climate” cooling. 

Google_Climate_trend

Reference: Google Trends, searching the word “climate” http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Climate&cmpt=q

The interest in climate has cooled, losing more than half its value since 2004.

Of course, as Real Climate Scientists™ always tell us, it is the trend that matters, not any single event or datapoint.

And, the model forecast calls for continued cooling into 2013 and 2014:

Google_climate_forecast

Reality is a bitch, isn’t it Dr. Schmidt?

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Shortly after he tweeted that jewel, I thought I’d look at Alexa rankings for RealClimate to see if there was a similar reverse-hockeystick in play.
Sadly, as near as I can tell, RealClimate is not ranked highly enough for that sort of historical data to be kept.

Paul Sheraton

Or an even better reverse hockey stick
Google trends for realclimate
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en#q=realclimate
peaks Nov 2009 and then dives

Was there a sustained interest in climate during the medieval warm period 😀

johnmarshall

Like trying to find a trend in a cyclic system. Depends on start time and data choice.

Bill_W

Sad when Gavin can be taken to school so easily.

tim maguire

He also apparently has difficulty with the difference between science and snark.

cui bono

Anthony – stats on visitors to RC vs WUWT would be fun. You might need a logarithmic graph. 🙂

Mark

Why would I need to google “climeatgate”?. I just type “wattsupwiththat.com” and find all the information I need…

Arguing with Warmists is like shooting fish in a barrel!

I wonder what the trend for “Gavin Schmidt” would be?

Why google “climategate”? Just type “wattsupwiththat.com” and get all the information and entertainment you need…

Dermot O'Logical

Whilst they don’t make land any more, I think you mean Reality, not Realty.
REPLY: Fixed, voice recognition software sometimes messes those up. – Anthony

even more interesting is the annual cycle of interest in climate, perhaps its the weather!

jc

I would be interested in how these trends appear relative to total searches through this time- frame. After all, the total number of searches processed by Google must be hugely more now that in 2004…..anyone able to integrate this?

knr

In a similar area , I always love the way they claim that somehow AGW sceptics are all powerful in stopping the public from buying heart and sole into ‘the cause ‘ and yet claiming that AGW sceptics are in fact tiny in number which few people believe. So how does this ‘power ‘ come about ?

jc

Just had a look at Google trends. Even more interesting to type in “climate change” and “global warming” and view them together. This clearly shows the “peak hysteria” in 2007 and the sad collapse thereafter. Weirdly, the low point each year is in August (with 2 years where July just wins) – very clearly so. It seems the committed environmentalist is a seasonal organism.

Lew Skannen

This is so funny. I have also spotted a trend. Every time one of these guys thinks he has a slam dunk over WUWT and jumps up on his high horse he ends up getting his ass handed to him.

Gary

Try Google Trends for “Real Climate” since 2009. 😉

Charles.U.Farley

Typical kind of pointless, nay childish response from someone who really has nothing to offer in terms of scientific input, right “Gav”?
On my ignore list. 😀

Old'un

The hockey stick curve that really scares me in the UK is the one showing our national debt. This, coupled with a flat/ negative trend in our GDP, is not stopping a bunch of MPs trying to force a decarbonisation target of 2030 through Parliament in the next few weeks. We are bust and if we
were a comany we would be in administration at best, but still the economic lunacy continues. The
leader of the group is a director of at least one renewable energy company – what a surprise.

Old'un

whoops typo: ‘company’

Jimbo

If current ‘climate cooling trends’ continue then we got an ice age in 5 years! 😉
It’s good to see the public is losing interest in the climate.

“Beneath the rule of men entirely great, the pen is mightier than the sword.” — Edward G. Bulwer-Lytton, English politician and poet, b1803 – d1873

Thanks for the tip to their trends analysis. Though I try to avoid that company, their tools are useful. Their Ngram thingie is also occasionally useful.

Just an engineer

It would appear that when it comes to “The Team”, PhD actually stands for Probably hokey data.

Fred from Canuckistan

One trend that is not a reverse hockey stick is the lack of integrity by Gavin.

redcords

The Gavin disappoints.

try plotting Gavin Schmidt and Anthony Watts…graph here

The Other Phil

I tried “global warming” which is a trend, not an event, and a similar picture emerges, not quite a reverse hockey stick, but come to think of it, neither is the temperature trend, so the “global warming” trend is closer to a reverse hockey stick than temperature is to a hockey stick.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=global%20warming&date=9%2F2005%2089m&cmpt=q

Although I think not all the Anthony Watts are the same!

PMT

Anthony, here’s one that shows both the medieval and modern warm periods, though I think the x axis needs bit of Mannian Massage. Paul.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=anthony%20watts&date=12%2F2009%2040m&cmpt=q

compare Real Climate with WUWT
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Real%20Climate&cmpt=q
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=WUWT&cmpt=q
Real Climate is headed for the toilet. WUWT is headed for the sky.

Jeremy

A day after Climategate happened someone at Google tweaked the search engine so that you no longer were automatically prompted for Climategate when you typed in Climate….
Google are a nefarious lot. They do this kind of thing ALL the time. Remember this is the same company that had a bit of “rogue” code that allowed their map vans to acquire personal information….

Lance

This guy has long gone past his ‘best before date’

What is the Google Trend for “Gavin Schmidt”?

John F. Hultquist

When funding for the “climate scientists” shows a reverse hockey-stick there should be a celebration.
In the Great State of Washington – not the D. C. one –
The Washington state Senate on Wednesday advanced a measure championed by Gov. Jay Inslee to study the best practices for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Under the measure, an outside consultant would review both Washington state’s ongoing efforts to cut carbon emissions and similar endeavors elsewhere.

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Washington-Senate-passes-Inslees-climate-bill-197863191.html
They haven’t said who will do this study nor how much it will cost. When it is done, I trust the executive summary will explain how much lower Earth’s future temperature will be as a result of the State’s climate change efforts. It will be indistinguishable from zero – maybe they can make that number bold print.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thanks Anthony and everyone for the on-going efforts.

Rud Istvan

Well played, Anthony.
Problem is, these folks never did care for reality, or they would not, for example, say in AR4 that clouds cool, they are the biggest uncertainty, our models get them all wrong versus observation, but never the less we are certain about what will happen decades in the future. And when it didn’t (the pause), what do they produce but AR5 SOD, saying their confidence has increased! Right.

JohnB

How many searches are for political “climate” or “climate” in general as opposed to “climate” change? I’m sure the downward trend is for “climate” change, but there’s probably a “baseload” climate interest which will always be there.

It would be one thing if Real Climate was merely misguided scientists who were mistaken about something, but it seems to be more than that. Real Climate seems to be an active tool, disseminating propaganda, and this could lead to trouble if it turns out fraud is involved. One then becomes an accessory to a crime.
Therefore Gavin should fear any spike in interest, when the interest is in what he’s been doing with our tax dollars.

Greg Roane

GASP! My sensitive ex-sailor ears are offended by your language, Mr. Watts! I, personally, would have chosen a stronger, more vulgar word! /snark off 🙂

James Allison

Realty is a bitch, isn’t it Dr. Schmidt?
I guess Schmidt would see climate as his property. 🙂

Patrick

These people like Schmidt aren’t scientists; they are manipulators of public opinion dependent on government money. They speak out of three sides of their mouths, and call anything that happens in weather, “climate change.” Anyone who studies their failed predictions knows that their “science” is anything but. Their models can’t predict past weather, much less future weather. Hell, they can’t predict the weather tomorrow, yet they expect us to believe they can predict climate years down the road. I’m through being civil with these charlatans who threaten our very existence with their frauds. They need to be exposed for exactly what they are.

Bloke down the pub

Well lets see now if we can apply some warmist graphing skills to that last figure. Pass everything prior to 2009 through a 2yr filter and cut off the data at 2010. Voila! an hockey-stick.

talldave2

I believe the technical term for this is “pwned.”
Amazing anyone still takes Gavin seriously.

seems like he’s begging to have the actual mails released to test his theory

I like the way Gavin truncated the graph on the left to hide the incline.
Once a ****, always a ****.

Kip Hansen

Reality is a ….
Realty however, is personal real property, real estate.

Doug Proctor

For some, Junior High was not a stage but a lifestyle.