While climate models tend to be open-ended and impossible to verify for the future they predict until the future becomes the measured present, weather models can and have been verified,…
Category: Forecasting
A new climate war brewing: forecasting vs. modeling
A new paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation explains how statistical forecasting methods can provide an important contrast to climate model-based predictions of future global warming. The…
Once Again El Nino Didn’t Do What Was Forecast. Why?
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball Mark Albright, who reportedly lost his job as Oregon State Climatologist in 2003 apparently because of his views on global warming, drew attention to the…
The abject failure of official global-warming predictions
Guest essay by Monckton of Brenchley The IPCC published its First Assessment Report a quarter of a century ago, in 1990. The Second Assessment Report came out 20 years ago,…
Filling in the sparse Arctic weather data
From RESEARCH ORGANIZATION OF INFORMATION AND SYSTEMS Optimized arctic observations for improving weather forecast in the northern sea route The current reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent causes unpredictable weather phenomena…
Is climate forecasting immune from Occam's razor?
Guest essay by Kesten Green Several authors have argued that the hypothesis of dangerous manmade global warming fails the test of Occam’s razor because the simple hypothesis of natural variation…
Models need to include ocean upwelling-downwelling responses to improve hurricane forecasts
From the UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL OF MARINE & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Study offers new insights on hurricane intensity, pollution transport Researchers study currents that fuel hurricanes and transport pollutants…
Science trumps politics and patronage: Al Gore is 'losing the bet' against scientific forecasting
Guest essay by Kesten C. Green Global warming is a forecasting problem. The claim of the IPCC and sympathetic alarmists is that if we don’t stop emitting carbon dioxide, the…
Another Model -vs- Reality problem – National Weather Offices: Canada, A Case Study With National And Global Implications.
Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball An article by Lord Monckton outlined his involvements with Thomas Karl, Director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville NC. It arose from a…
NOAA Forecast: A below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year
Hurricane forecasting evolving with new storm surge products, upgraded modeling NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be below-normal, but that’s no reason to believe…
BP: CO2 reduction efforts futile
Forecasts 25% rise in annual CO2 emissions by 2035 Submitted by Eric Worrall – BP has controversially predicted that the huge rise in energy demand over the next 20 years…
Many Mixed Signals in the UKMO’s Latest 5-Year Global Surface Temperature Forecast
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The UKMO issued their most recent 5-year global temperature forecast about a week ago. See their Decadal forecast press release for 2015. It has been…
NOAA touts hurricane season forecast success
Via NOAA press release: Atlantic hurricane season stays quiet as predicted Improved model, new surge forecast products and research projects debuted The Atlantic hurricane season will officially end November 30,…
Great moments in forecasting – UK winter weather to be ' very mild, wet and stormy to extremely cold and snowy'
From the University of Sheffield: Winter is coming: British weather set to become more unsettled Britain hit by extremely unsettled winter weather Three all-time high and two all-time low NAO…
El Niño is just not paying attention to climate models – looks like a bust
In the past week both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scaled back forecasts for a big El Niño warming event in 2014.…
'Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.'
That headline is attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra. But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence…
Latest projection shows Hurricane Arthur battering the Outer Banks on the Fourth of July
WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm…
Bastardi: 'potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend'
UPDATE: Latest GFDL model output suggests Bastardi could be right, see below. UPDATE2: New information from Bastardi here shows 4th of July nightmare is shaping up to be true. The…
The Weather Forecast That Saved D-Day
The most important weather forecast in history In memory of my father Hans who, in 1944, took part in the liberation of Europe with the Royal Engineers in the Italian…
NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
From NOAA: El Niño expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is…
You must be logged in to post a comment.