The abject failure of official global-warming predictions

Guest essay by Monckton of Brenchley

The IPCC published its First Assessment Report a quarter of a century ago, in 1990. The Second Assessment Report came out 20 years ago, the Third 15 years ago. Even 15 years is enough to test whether the models’ predictions have proven prophetic. In 2008, NOAA’s report on the State of the Global Climate, published as a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, said: “The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”

To the continuing embarrassment of the profiteers of doom, the least-squares linear-regression trends on Dr Roy Spencer’s UAH satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 18 years 6 months, despite a continuing (and gently accelerating) increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, shown on the graph as a gray trace:

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Dr Carl Mears’ RSS dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 8 months:

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By contrast, the mean of the three much-altered terrestrial tamperature datasets since May 1997 shows a warming equivalent to a not very exciting 1.1 C°/century:

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It is now time to display the graph that will bring the global warming scare to an end (or, at least, in a rational scientific debate it would raise serious questions):

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The zones colored orange and red, bounded by the two red needles, are, respectively, the low-end and high-end medium-term predictions made by the IPCC in 1990 that global temperature would rise by 1.0 [0.7, 1.5] Cº in the 36 years to 2025, equivalent to 2.78 [1.94, 4.17] Cº/century (page xxiv). The boundary between the two zones is the IPCC’s then best prediction: warming equivalent to about 2.8 C°/century by now.

The green region shows the range of measured global temperatures over the quarter-century since 1990. GISS, as usual following the alterations that were made to all three terrestrial datasets in the two years preceding the Paris climate conference, gives the highest value, at 1.71 C°/century equivalent. The UAH and RSS datasets are at the lower bound of observation, at 1.00 and 1.11 C°/century respectively.

Two remarkable facts stand out. First, the entire interval of observational measurements is below the IPCC’s least estimate in 1990, individual measurements falling between one-half and one-third of the IPCC’s then central estimate.

Secondly, the interval between the UAH and GISS measurements is very large – 0.71 C°/century equivalent. The GISS warming rate is higher by 71% than the UAH warming rate – and these are measured rates. But the central IPCC predicted rate is not far short of thrice the UAH measured rate, and the highest predicted rate is more than four times the UAH measured rate.

The absolute minimum uncertainty in the observational global-temperature measurements is thus 0.71 C°/century, the difference between the UAH and GISS measured warming rates. Strictly speaking, therefore, it is not possible to be sure that any global warming has occurred unless the warming rate is at least 0.71 C° century. On the mean of the RSS and UAH datasets, the farthest one can go back in the data and yet obtain a rate less than 0.71 C° is August 1993.

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In short, the Pause may in reality be as long as 22 years 5 months – and the more the unduly politicized keepers of the terrestrial records tamper with them with the effect of boosting the rate of warming above the true rate the more they widen the observational uncertainty and hence increase the possible length of the Pause.

In 1995 the IPCC offered a prediction of the warming rates to be expected in response to various rates of increase in CO2 concentration:

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The actual increase in CO2 concentration in the two decades since 1995 has been 0.5% per year. So there should have been 0.36 C° global warming since then, equivalent to 1.8o C°/century, as shown by the single red needle above.

Once again the graph comparing observation with prediction displays some remarkable features. First, the IPCC’s 1995 prediction of the warming rate to the present on the basis of what has turned out to be the actual change in CO2 concentration over the period since 1995 was below the entire interval of predictions of the warming rate in its 1990 report.

Secondly, all five of the principal global-temperature datasets show warming rates below even the IPCC’s new and very much lower predicted warming rate.

Thirdly, the spread of temperature measurements is wide: 0.38 C°/century equivalent for UAH, up to 1.51 C°/century equivalent for GISS, a staggeringly wide interval of 1.17 C°/century. The GISS warming rate over the past two decades is four times the UAH warming rate.

Fourthly, the measured warming rate has declined compared with that measured since 1990, even though CO2 concentration has continued to increase.

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So to the 2001 Third Assessment Report. Here, the IPCC, at page 8 of the Summary for Policymakers, says: “For the periods 1990-2025 and 1990to 2050, the projected increses are 0.4-1.1 C° and 0.8-2.6 C° respectively.” The centennial-equivalent upper and lower bounds are shown by the two red needles in the graph above.

Once again, there are some remarkable revelations in this graph.

First, both the upper and lower bounds of the interval of predicted medium-term warming, here indicated by the two red needles, have been greatly reduced compared with their values in 1990. The upper bound is now down from 4.17 to just 3.06 C°/century equivalent.

Secondly, the spread between the least and greatest measured warming rates remains wide: from –0.11 C°/century equivalent on the RSS dataset to +1.4 C°/century equivalent on the NCEI dataset, an interval of 1.51 C°/century equivalent. Here, as with the 1990 and 1995 graphs, the two satellite datasets are at the lower bound and the terrestrial datasets at or close to the upper bound.

Which datasets are more likely to be correct, the terrestrial or the satellite datasets?

The answer, based on the first-class research conducted by Anthony Watts and his colleagues in a poster presentation for the Fall 2015 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, is that the satellite datasets are closer to the truth than the terrestrial datasets, though even the satellite datasets may be suffering from urban heat-island contamination to some degree, so that even they may be overstating the true rate of global warming. The following graph shows the position:

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NOAA’s much-altered dataset (J. Karl, prop., say no more) appears to have overstated the true warming rate by some 60%. Watts et al. determined the true warming rate over the continental United States by a sensible and straightforward method: they adopted as normative a standard for the ideal siting and maintenance of temperature monitoring stations that had been independently drawn up and peer reviewed, and then they applied that standard to all the stations in the contiguous United States, excluding all stations that did not comply with the standard. The result, in blue, is that from 1979-2008 the true rate of warming over the continental U.S. was not the 3.2 C°/century equivalent found by NOAA, nor even the 2.3 C°/century equivalent found by UAH, which keeps a separate record for the 48 states of the contiguous U.S., but just 2.0 C°/century equivalent.

On this evidence, the satellites are far closer to the mark than the terrestrial datasets.

Thirdly, the measured rate of warming has again fallen, directly in opposition to the continuing (and gently accelerating) increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and in anthropogenic forcings generally.

This inexorably widening divergence between prediction and reality is a real and unexplained challenge to the modelers and their over-excited, over-egged predictions. The warming rate should be increasing in response not only to past forcings but also to the growth in current anthropogenic forcings. Yet it has been declining since the mid-1980s, as the following interesting graph shows:

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At no point has the rate of global warming reached the lower bound of the interval of global warming rates predicted by the IPCC in 1990:

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Displaying the three prediction-vs.-reality graphs side by side shows just how badly off beam have been the official predictions on the basis of which governments continue to squander trillions.

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The graphs show between them a failure of prediction that is nothing less than abject. The discrepancies between prediction and observation are far too great, and far too persistent, and far too contrary to the official notion of high climate sensitivity, to be explained away.

The West is purposelessly destroying its industries, its workers’ jobs, its prosperity, its countryside, and above all its scientific credibility, by continuing to allow an unholy mesalliance of politicians, profiteers, academics, environmental extremists, journalists and hard-left activists to proclaim, in defiance of the data now plainly shown for all to see for the first time, that the real rate of global warming is “worse than we thought”. It isn’t.

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Scott

Great post,
May I suggest an addition to your time clocks. A green shaded area that shows rates of warming prior to the great scare commencing which would then show natural variability and that the current warming is no different to the past.

desmond

You really didn’t notice, that there is an information in the article that IPCC was predicting how fast it will warm after 1990, and there is no comparisson of that prediction with periods 1990-2015? Many other periods are presetet, but not 1990-2015 – the one it shout be shown in the first place? Guess why!

desmond

Sorry, my mistake. There is comparison of period 1990-2015.
Te fraud is somethine else here. Here are 1990 IPPC predictons:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/FAR_projections.png
1.94-4.17 °C warming was predicted to occur within 1990-2090 period.
Warming predicted within 1990-2015 period was similar to that, what actually hapenned in that period.

Marcus

As always, awesome job Viscount Monckton of Brenchley !!

David A

Chritopher Monckton, you may he underestimating the errors!
I understand that CAGW theory predicts that the tropical troposphere will rise 30 percent faster then the surface, and the overall trophsphere will rise wp percent faster.
Yet it appears your UAH and RSS charts compare troposphere T to predicted surface warming, not the greater warming predicted for the troposphere. Corrections welcome, and great post!

David A

Ah!!! fat fingers, small phone, old eyes and nasty autocorrect!
…and the overall trophsphere will rise 20 percent faster.

george e. smith

It seems to me that the (increasing) CO2 in the atmosphere ought to increase the LWIR radiation absorption (in the 15 micron band) “instantaneously”, within attoseconds of a new CO2 molecule taking up residence (for the next 200 years), it should already be catching LWIR photons, and within nanoseconds it should be imparting that energy to the atmospheric N2, O2, Ar molecules of the air and warming them.
So I have a hard time contemplating any time offset, between CO2 increases, and atmospheric Temperature increases.
And it seems to me that what Dr. Roy and Prof Christy are measuring is in fact the Temperature of that atmosphere (yes via a well established proxy thermometric means).
So I am dumbfounded by the complete lack of any apparent connection in MofB’s first two graphs, or the RSS and UAH data linear trend (of zero) to the clearly obvious continual annual growth of that atmospheric CO2, whatever its source is.
We can talk about water amplifications of CO2 initiated warmings till the cows come home.
But then there isn’t any CO2 warmings to be waking up the H2O at some later, yet to be determined time for them to do their amplification thing.
And since we now know, that much of the actual surface station supposed measured data is actually somebody’s wild a**** guess of what such data should be, and wasn’t measured by anybody, and a lot of it is false data from phony ocean water temperature exercises; is it any wonder, that we aren’t impressed with their protestations of emergency international calamity interdiction requirements and the money to go with it.
g

George E. Smith has the matter in a nutshell. The initial warming effect of CO2 should indeed be instantaneous, but it is not occurring. It is possible that natural factors may be overwhelming the warming signal from CO2, but even if that is the case the warming from CO2 must be very small.

The truth is LWIR in the 15 micron band is absorbed to extinction after a short traverse through the atmosphere, so any additional CO2 has no effect. That is why there has been no global warming over the last 18 to 19yrs even though the CO2 conc has been steadily increasing.

Walt D.

Currently in schools, children are being taught that there is no such thing as failure.
Grades used to be A = average, B= bad, C= catastrophic.
(BTW – AGW has redefined catastrophic to mean microscopic)
Now Grade A = attended (or just enrolled).
So the term “abject failure” today would probably be treated as a grammatical mistake by most teachers.

This is exactly how it was when i taught class at Miami University a couple years ago. In fact, the Department head pressed me to bump people’s grades up just the slightest bit because people complained they had a B or a B-, in the Lab classes i taught. It’s not like it was a hard lab. Only 1 person they didn’t press me on and that was because they didn’t show up to 10 (out of 16) lab sessions (1 of them being the final). Achievement has been replaced by entitlement.

Menicholas

Walt, serious question: Are you being somewhat sarcastic, or is this literally true regarding how school children are being taught?
I know that in games and sports, they have done away with winners and losers, but is it a fact that the grading system of evaluating each students progress and achievement level has been abandoned?
Just curious…little surprises me these days regarding our educational system.
(Or maybe I am surprised, but have come to accept being surprised as the norm.)

feliksch

The Swiss canton Berne wanted to abolish grading some years ago, at the behest of the teachers. Guess who put an end to this nonsense: the pupils, who didn’t stop to nag and complain until the teachers gave up.

george e. smith

Object there Walt ! An abject is a speech impediment !
When I went to school, C was a passing grade, demonstrating all of the required standard knowledge of the subject. Class averages in any subject always fell right around 50% for the whole class.
But then they asked real questions, and they didn’t give you the answers to select from.
I still have ALL of my high school report cards, with actual exam marks on them. I believe I even have one in which my exam score was more than double what the average for the whole class was. I think it was 98 / 48.
Not bringing up my luck, just that 48% for the class average was not considered a problem. And we were the top class out of three classes taking the same subject material.
A 15 foot jump to clear a 16 foot chasm, is not generally regarded as a win.
g

@George e., 10:56 am, plus many, The downfall of education systems started 30-40 years ago. As parents we were heavily involved until unions decided that parent involved in their kids education was “detrimental” to our kids. We continued their education at home ( on top of the forced school system), they are fine as 35-40 year olds now thank god and can think on their own feet. It is truly a crime what the school systems in western countries has done to our children and it is no surprise that Asian kids are so far ahead of us.
But try to fight them. We had to leave one district after ( even physical against my wife!) confrontations but the crap just followed us until we just started the “home schooling “.

TG

Lord Monkton. I took the liberty of making a small addition to your excellent piece.
Thank you for your tenacity and scientific prowess.
The Western world EU, USA, now Canada etc.. with their ubber Liberal socialist Government’s are purposelessly (Classic Obamanomics) destroying their industries, its workers’ jobs, its prosperity, its countryside, and above all its scientific credibility, by continuing to allow an unholy mesalliance of politicians, profiteers, academics, environmental extremists, journalists and hard-left activists to proclaim, in defiance of the data now plainly shown for all to see for the first time, that the real rate of global warming is “worse than we thought”. It isn’t.
.

‘report on the State of the Global Climate, published as a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, said: “The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
To the continuing embarrassment of the profiteers of doom, the least-squares linear-regression trends on Dr Roy Spencer’s UAH satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 18 years 6 months, …’

The usual pea-moving. NOAA writes about trends in surface temperature, and in fact about ENSO-adjusted global mean temperature^*. So Lord M immediately reaches for his favorite satellite measures of the troposphere. Now it may be that I similar statement could be made about the troposphere (after ENSO adjustment). Or it may not. NOAA didn’t make it.
But the key thing (apart from ENSO) there is the 95% level. That says that if you look at just one instance from the population, and find it out of range, that is something that would happen only one time in 20, so you can say that it is likely something unusual is going on. But if you look here and there, hither and yon, then of course you will find occurrences. One in twenty events do happen. And if you extend your range to different regions, they will be found even more often.
* NOAA said “the simulations rule out…” What simulations (my bold)?
“The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 nonoverlapping decades with trends in ENSO-adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999–2008 trend (−0.05° to 0.05°C decade–1). “

Menicholas

I am having difficulty discerning your point, Mr. Stokes.

I think Mr Stokes should be more worried about his own body temp ( and his BP) every time he sees one of Moncton of Brenchley’s posts.

I think Mr nick should be worried more about his own body temp ( and his BP) it seems to go to dangerous high levels every time Moncton posts.

Monckton of Brenchley

Mr Stokes digs himself further into the mire every time he comments here. The official theory is that global warming, particularly when caused by wicked, naughty fossil fuels, should cause more warming in the troposphere than at the surface (see Santer, 2003, cited by IPCC, 2007). So, if the lower troposphere shows no warming for more than 15 years, a discrepancy has arisen: for the implication, confirmed by Anthony Watts’ excellent research, is that the surface-temperature datasets ought to be showing a lot less warming over recent decades than they do.
Mr Stokes’ second point is as half-baked and ill-thought-through as the first. He makes much of model simulations that “possess 17 non-overlapping decades with trends in ENSO-adjusted global mean temeprature” that show a zero or near-zero trend. Well, of course they do, for very nearly all of the 17 decades precede any anthropogenic influence. What is remarkable about the present stasis (RSS, UAH) or near-stasis (the rest) in global temperatures is that it is occurring notwithstanding rising anthropogenic forcings, including CO2 concentrations.
Mr Stokes should stop wasting his time contriving ever more elaborate attempts to explain away what is made manifest in the graphs in the head posting: the IPCC’s models have consistently and considerably exaggerated their predictions of warming rates, and the trends in observed temperature are very substantially below what was predicted i n each of the first three Assessment Reports. Best to admit that fact than to produce tortuous, ill-considered attempts at diverting attention away from it.

Latitude

“models have consistently and considerably exaggerated their predictions of warming rates”
====
That’s because the models have been fed temperature records that have consistently and considerably exaggerated the rate of warming….by cooling the past…and warming the future
….the models are only doing what they have been told
I would like to see model runs on raw unadjusted un-algorithumed unfaked original temperature records…
..I would be willing to bet the models are not doing such a bad job
But we will never know….and the models will never be right

Michael Jankowski

[Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, sockpuppet. -mod]

Menicholas

I find myself wondering yet again if Nick Stokes is any relation to Sir George Gabriel Stokes?

DHR

Seems like and apples-oranges issue here. You compare measured (and adjusted) surface temperature trends obtained from surface thermometers with surface temperature trends as predicted by models and lower troposphere trends as measured by satellites. You note that climate models predict greater temperature increases in the lower troposphere than at the surface. So a better comparison would seem to be between the modeled troposphere and the satellite (and balloon) measured troposphere. From my meager understanding of these matters, it seems that such a comparison might show an even greater discrepancy.

ferdberple

But if you look here and there, hither and yon, then of course you will find occurrences. One in twenty events do happen.
====================
You fail to account for the fact that no one had to looked hither and yon. The Pause happened on the very first occurrence. No sooner was the paint dry on the climate models than they started to diverge from reality and run hot.
What are the odds that 100 climate models will ALL run hot simply by chance? The same odds that if you toss a coin 100 times it will land heads every time. The odds are 1/2 to the power of 100. As close to zero as you can get.

“The Pause happened on the very first occurrence.”
Not of the dataset that they were talking about. Another had to be searched for. And then there is a whole range of years that can be scrutinised.
But the omission of mention of the ENSO adjustment that really does it. It’s well known that every couple of decades a big ENSO comes along and makes a huge spike in the temperature, especially in the troposphere. And for many years later, if you take a trend from that date, you’ll get a negative trend. Thgis arithmetic consequence is not what they are interested in. So they specifically removed the ENSO effect, to see if a truly significant effcet might be found in the remainder. That is where their 15 year figure comes from.

But the omission of mention of the ENSO adjustment that really does it.

At the present time, your own figures show the following:
So RSS shows no statistically significant warming for 22 years and 8 months.
So UAH6.0beta4 shows no statistically significant warming for 22 years and 11 months.
So if I understand things correctly, the real question seems to be whether or not these times will go under 15 years in 8 months from now. Is that correct? (The reason I say 8 months is that by August 2016, this present super El Nino will presumably be back to normal so the 1998 and 2016 El Ninos will cancel out.)

“So RSS shows no statistically significant warming for 22 years and 8 months.”
Yes. But the trend actually observed was 0.772°C/Century. Lower than expected, but not zero. Saying that it isn’t statistically different from zero is just saying that in a whole lot of other Earths, with the same climatic conditions, 2.5% could have trend less than 0 (and 2.5% would have trend >1.574). That isn’t saying much.
So no, the 15 yrs and 22+ yr figures are quite different. When NOAA says that 15 year runs happened only 5% of the time, they are referring to actual occurrences (in their model).
An El Nino rise to balance 1998 would probably bring the trend to something more than 0.772, and that probably would be significantly different from zero. That shows a weakness in the calc of stat sig here. It would say that there was less than 2.5% chance of the trend since 1997 being negative, and yet a few months ago it was negative. What caused the change was ENSO, and there is likely better than a 2.5% chance of the El Nino happening. The random model on which the stat sig is based just doesn’t include that.
That is why the NOAA quote that this post leads with was based on trends with the ENSO effects removed. With ENSO, pauses are common, for reasons that don’t have much to do with the climate issues they are interested in. So they remove them. Then, and only then, it is true that there is less than a 5% chance of observing a 15 yr pause (in surface temp).

Menicholas

” It’s well known that every couple of decades a big ENSO comes along and makes a huge spike in the temperature, especially in the troposphere. And for many years later, if you take a trend from that date, you’ll get a negative trend.”
I would council patience, Nick.
It appears they are doing their darnedest to airbrush these dips out of the surface records.
Hard to claim “warmest year ever” year after year if some big fat el nino way back in 1998 keeps standing head and shoulders above the crowd.
But give them time, they’ll work it out.

That is why the NOAA quote that this post leads with was based on trends with the ENSO effects removed.

Thank you! Do you have a program that removes ENSO effects, or is such a program even possible to create?

Mr Stokes again makes several bad points. He insists that NOAA’s removal of ENSO effects is important, but does not appear to understand that ENSO is a synoptic phenomenon – a cycle – and that its duration is typically only 3-4 years. Over 15 years it is broadly self-canceling. The El Niño spike of 1998, for instance, is near-perfectly offset by the spike of 2010. Remove both and the trend is near identical to what it was before the removal.
He then fails to grasp that the minimum observational uncertainty in a record covered by several datasets is the difference between the least and greatest trends over the period of interest. Mr Brozek had pointed out, correctly, that the usual computational significance tests broadly concur with the observational uncertainty demonstrated in the head posting.
Next, Mr Stokes demonstrates a poor understanding of what observational uncertainty is. He says that the RSS warming over 22 years is about 0.8 K/century equivalent. Noting in passing that that is not exactly a life-threatening warming rate, one should appreciate that the observational uncertainty derived from the difference between the RSS and GISS warming rates means that the True warming rate may be as far below the RSS rate as the GISS rate is above it.
Nex, he complains that UAH made corrections to its dataset. So it did -but it did so for genuine reasons well explained. Contrast this with the recent tampering so with the sea-surface temperature dataset on which the terrestrial datasets crucially depend. The indefensible decision was taken to adjust the ARGO bathythermograph temperatures massively upward to bring these inconvenient data into line with the earlier and far less reliable ship-bucket data.
As the head posting shows, on all datasets the observed warming rate is well below IPCC’s 1990 and 1995 predictions, and the 2001 least prediction only narrowly manages to overlap with some of the much-exaggerated terrestrial datasets, and only then because the I tire prediction interval has been so drastically reduced compared with the extremist IPCC predictions of 1990 that got the climate scam going,

Werner,
These are GCM results, so they have considerable ability to remove ENSO effects based on the mechanics.
But Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) did remove ENSO (and volcano and solar) effects from both surface and satellite indices. They used regression against MEI. The results is here. No pause to be seen:
http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/2016/1/F%26R.png

Mr. Stokes, do you agree with this statement or not?
“The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
Because it sounds like they are saying 15 years indicates a discrepancy. You seem content to do a bunch of hand waving, But even if you’re right and there is not, in the end, a discrepancy, the fact remains that the benchmark for investigating the validity of the models has been met.

RHS

The use of one data set versus another isn’t moving the pea. Rather, it’s a look at untortured data vs. tortured data. Everyone will use the data set which enforces the point they want to make.

“Rather, it’s a look at untortured data vs. tortured data. E”
Here is Roy Spencer’s account of the changes made in going to V6. Examples:
“That is no longer possible, and an explicit correction for diurnal drift is now necessary. The correction for diurnal drift is difficult to do well, and we have been committed to it being empirically–based, partly to provide an alternative to the RSS satellite dataset which uses a climate model for the diurnal drift adjustment.”
“The LT retrieval must be done in a harmonious way with the diurnal drift adjustment, necessitating a new way of sampling and averaging the satellite data. To meet that need, we have developed a new method for computing monthly gridpoint averages from the satellite data which involves computing averages of all view angles separately as a pre-processing step. Then, quadratic functions are statistically fit to these averages as a function of Earth-incidence angle, and all further processing is based upon the functional fits rather than the raw angle-dependent averages.”
Only raw data there.

Michael Jankowski,
All excellent points. It takes an ulterior motive to use Phil Jones’ Hadcru, or any ground-only stations.

Menicholas

To say nothing of adjusting state of the art ARGO buoy data to match wooden buckets and ship intake systems.

gaelansclark

Hello Nick, thank you for your copy and paste of DrSpencer’s methodology. What is that, the bazzillionth time now?
Do, be a dove, please show us all of the changes, times and dates of and the actual adjustments to, the land based temp set….

David A

…and Nick, please tell us which independent accurate and precise instrument data set the land based thermometers data are verified with?
(Nick knows the satellites are checked with the most accurate instuments we have on weather ballons)

gaelansclark

Nick…..two last requests from the above comment…..One, the rational for each of the changes to the land based temp set. And two, what changes have not been made to the land based temp record that “should” be made…..ie-urban heat island.
Ohhhhhhh ooooooppppppsssssss……my request is “overly broad” and it would require too many hours of your time?!?……as well as tooooooooooo much space for a simple copy and paste….WOW

Michael Jankowski

[Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, sockpuppet. -mod]

Trenberth and Phil Jones were talking about surface temperatures when they bemoaned the pause, weren’t they?

Phil Jones, July 5, 2005:
“The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. Okay it has but it is only seven years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.”
I tried to prove his statement true with Hadcrut3 from 1998 to July 2005, but the slope was positive! Was Hadcrut3 adjusted since his statement was made? See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1998/to:2005.6/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1998/to:2005.6/trend

Paul Penrose

Nick,
As far as I’m concerned, all this talk about model output is just wasted time. As you are a proponent of leaving the climate science to the experts, I’m sure you would agree that writing software should be left to the software engineer (just as building bridges should be left to the equivalent experts). However the models (and much of the temperature record keeping/averaging) are just large pieces of software. Software which was written by people, which though they may be experts in their fields, have little or no training in software engineering. As a professional software engineer I can assure you that writing such complicated software without following industry design and testing standards will result in unreliable code which is riddled with bugs. Nobody should trust the output of any software that has not been verified and validated. None of the models, to my knowledge, have been through that process. Using such software (unvalidated and unverified) is like using uncalibrated instruments in an experiment: worthless.

” I’m sure you would agree that writing software should be left to the software engineer”
No, I don’t. You might as well say that writing blog comments should be left to English majors. I was writing programs before the term SE was invented. They worked then and they work now.
I wrote a program for producing a monthly global average surface temperature. The code is set out and described in a series terminating here. It was not written “following industry design and testing standards”, and I’m sure you could find much to criticise. But it works. Every month on about the eighth, I post the results. I have done that for about four years. The latest for December (and 2015) is here. About a week later, when the GISS results come out, I post a comparison. They are very close – a recent review is here. I think that indicates that both my program and GISS/NOAA are doing something right.
But you can possibly do better. I’m all ears.

Nick says:
I think that indicates that both my program and GISS/NOAA are doing something right.
Yes, I agree. I also agree that the pre-Copernicus scientists of their day were doing something right, when they created programs to predict the retrograde movement of planets with epicycles. They were quite accurate.
Then Kepler came along and blew that nonsense out of the water.
You’re doing something similar. You are taking natural events and assigning an anthropogenic cause. But you still can’t answer a few critical observations:
There is nothing happening that exceeds past temperature parameters, from when there were no industrial CO2 emissions. What is observed now is not unusual, or unprecedented. It has happened repeatedly, and to a much greater degree in the past.
And you always avoid Occam’s Razor, which says that the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one: we are observing natural variability in global temperatures, because CO2 at current levels just does not have the effect you claim. In fact, the rise in CO2 has been a net benefit.
You would see that if the scales ever fell from your eyes. You’re desperately searching for solid evidence that there is something happening that can only be explained by human emissions. But you can’t find anything, so you argue around it, trying to build a circumstantial case. That’s for the courtroom, Nick, not for scientists. In science, skepticism is essential. But you’re no skeptic.
You’re a smart guy, Nick, so you must be aware of these things. So somehow you’re getting compensated, either with money, or with pats on the head from people you want to impress, for promoting their alarmist views. You have no skepticism of the ‘dangerous AGW’ conjecture. Without skepticism, you’re just studying epicycles.

Michael Palmer

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Hi Michael Palmer,
If you have the patience, I’ll answer your question as a skeptic of the “dangerous AGW” (DAGW) conjecture sees it.
First, WUWT isn’t a peer reviewed publication. It’s a site where all different views are expressed. In fact, it’s been the Internet’s “Best Science” site for the past three years. If you conflate this site with peer reviewed papers, I suggest you read Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion, and some of the Climategate email sites. You will see that they are not credible because climate peer review, and the associated journal system has been thoroughly corrupted. There isn’t any doubt about that.
On this site you will find plenty of comments that argue for the DAGW conjecture. Some folks, like Brandon Gates, Nick Stokes, and Joel Shore try make rational arguments, which are all based on their belief that “dangerous” AGW is happening, or that it will happen if CO2 keeps rising. But they’re wasting a lot of time arguing over a very minuscule effect that is too small to even measure. I have yet to see any of those folks arguing that AGW is too small to worry about. Therefore, their arguments conclude that there is something to worry about. Thus: “dangerous”.
Others, however, make no bones about their belief that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous global warming. They are convinced that a climate catastrophe is occurring, or that it soon will. I won’t name any more names because others seem wacky. But the ones above are people I respect, because even though they’ve been completely wrong so far about DAGW, they try to make a good case. I make the counter-case: show us any global damage, or harm, caused by human CO2 emissions.
So even though DAGW is clearly a conjecture (and AGW isn’t far behind), those writing the papers for journals are being as careful as Nick, Joel, and Brandon. They’re too smart to say what they really believe (except maybe Gates). But all their arguments go in the direction of DAGW, and they never admit that AGW is something we very likely don’t have to worry about. (If new evidence appears that shows a cause for concern, I’ll accept it. It’s the knowledge that matters most to skeptics, not the bragging rights.)
The literature is no different from the three folks I mentioned here. Most of the scientists who pass the journal gate-keepers are in it for various reasons, money and status not being the least of them. They’ve staked out their position, and they won’t back down. They’re certainly not the skeptics that Profs. Feynman, Langmuir, and Popper wrote about. They have an agenda, and it’s not to gain more knowledge or to accept the current un-scary observations.
On the other hand, skeptics really have no position other than: “Show us! Post convincing evidence that the rise in CO2 is something we should worry about. Convince us that our national priorities need to be re-ordered because of the ‘carbon’ scare.”
But so far, I haven’t seen any convincing evidence. If they can’t quantify the fraction of AGW out of global warming from all sources like the natural recovery from the LIA, and from volcanic eruptions, el Ninos, and other causes, then AGW remains an unproven conjecture. They are asserting that AGW is a problem. But their evidence is lacking.
Data, Michael. That’s what is missing. Measurements are data — but there are no measurements quantifying AGW. That means AGW must be too small to measure. If they can measure subatomic forces to twelve decimal places, why can’t they measure the fraction of global warming being caused by human CO2 emissions? (I’ve repeatedly explained exactly why not, but they never respond with a good answer.)
They also post links of “adjusted” data (which isn’t really data at all unless every step of the process, from the raw data through all adjustments is thoroughly documented). It’s interesting that the final product shown to the public almost always shows more scary warming; almost never cooling. The warming is always ascribed to human emissions. And of course, the maps are colored in scary reds. That isn’t an accident. Red implies danger.
But CO2 has risen from only about 3 parts in 10,000, to 4 parts in 10,000 over the past century. That’s just one part in 10,000. And it’s been up to almost 20X higher in the past without causing a climate catastrophe. But they never use the ‘parts per ten thousand’ metric. Its always something like, “CO2 has gone up by X %!!” Can you see the agenda?
So when you try to frame the debate in terms limited to what’s in the climate peer reviewed literature, what you’re leaving out is the fact that climate alarmism is based on DAGW, not on AGW. I’m sure you’ve seen the graphs of the number of papers containing scare words like ‘man-made global warming’. Now that number is accelerating. Can’t you see the grant trolling? Without something to scare the public, the money spigot will be turned way down. So just because they don’t overstep and write “dangerous” AGW, certainly anyone who follows the debate knows that’s exactly what they’re peddling.
Now let me turn the argument around, and ask you: how many papers conclude that AGW is a non-problem? You say you’ve read much of the literature. Give me a reasonable ratio of the number of papers that you think conclude that AGW is something to worry about, versus the number that says it isn’t.
Better yet, get the three folks I mentioned above to state unequivocally that based on all available evidence, there is no global harm or damage being caused by the rise in CO2, and there is plenty of evidence showing its benefits; what people worried about has turned out to be a false alarm, and unless something changes those facts we should not spend any more public money to fix what has turned out to be a non-problem. Other areas of science are being starved of funding that has gone instead into ‘studying climate change’. Let’s get our priorities back to normal.
Good luck. If you can do that, maybe we can tackle the corrupted climate journal/peer review system, which is still being controlled by the same self-serving charlatans.

Michael Palmer

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…in effect the word “dangerous” is not part of the science.
Neither is the climate peer review/journal system. It’s self-serving propaganda, and just because a clique has gotten together and put their ‘Appeal to Authority’ stamp on it, that doesn’t mean it’s science. Montford shows that in spades.
You’re not replying to the many points I made. Since ‘silence is concurrence’, we can drop the discussion now.

Michael Palmer

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Michael Palmer,
I spent some time patiently explaining for you exactly where the “dangerous” narrative comes from, and who promotes it, and why it’s false. You’re right, you don’t have to respond. But I think the reason is because you cannot refute my explanation. If I’m wrong, explain where I’m wrong.
Next, ‘skepticgonewild’ says:
The NOAA fully expected the warming to resume in the next few years since the time interval would then exceed 15 years.
That’s the same error that Dr. Phil Jones made. Jones stated that 15 years would be needed to statistically confirm that global warming has stopped. Count the years:
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ScreenHunter_9549-Jun.-17-21.12.gif
Here are fivew WoodForTrees databases showing the same thing. Global warming stopped a lot longer than 15 years ago.
Since global temperatures refuse to do what the alarmist crowd predicted, the UN/IPCC doubles down every time, while raising their ‘confidence’ levels:
http://www.energyadvocate.com/gc1.jpg
Even B.E.S.T. admits that global warming has stopped.
And the left-leaning Washington Post agrees:comment image
The only response the climate alarmist clique has is to repeat their narrative, that we are facing “dangerous man-made global warming”. They completely disregard the facts, and hope the public listens to their alarmism, rather than independently verifying it.
NOAA is part of that deception:comment image
They would not have to fake the temperature record if there was actually dangerous warming occurring. Since there isn’t, they fabricate it.
Never listen to just their words. Always watch their actions.

Michael Palmer

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Michael Palmer

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Michael Palmer,
Your arguments are becoming increasinly lame and nasty, telling me I know nothing about science.
Well, I know more than you do, because I know the difference between a hypothesis and a conjecture. And I know when someone tucks tail and skedadles, rather than answering questions or replying to points I’ve made.
You jumped into this and asked me a question. Fair enough; I took some time to politely answer you. But you didn’t like what I wrote. I’ve pointed out that you are unable to refute it. Your response:
I don’t have to refute anything you’ve said.
My reply: That’s just a smoke screen. You are simply incapable of refuting my points. If you could have, you would have. Instead, you lower yourself to schoolyard taunts:
You flunk science 101. …you have shown that you don’t have any conception of what “science” is.
Ah, but I do. That has you flustered. So you try to wing it:
Science does not concern itself with the values of a given phenomena.
Wrong-o, pal. Science is absolutely concerned with that. It’s called “data”, and it comes from measurements — which you lack.
More tap-dancing:
Science does not and cannot say if AGW is “beneficial,” nor can it say if AGW is “dangerous.” Unfortunately, when you say “dangerous” AGW, you have left the study of science.
Wrong again. First off, you don’t read very well. I wrote to you that ‘the rise in CO2’ has been a net benefit. And your whole thought process is out to lunch: science constantly assigns values to outcomes. That is exactly what scientists do all the time: Are antibiotics good? Is syphilis bad? And so on. Since you mentioned it, I think AGW has also been a net benefit. Where’s the downside? Show us any global harm, or damage caused by AGW. Or by CO2. Be specific.
While you’re at it, have you read all of the climate peer reviewed literature? You seem to think so, because you stated that “dangerous” does not appear anywhere. You wrote that “none of your points address where the “dangerous” comes from.” But I spent some time explaining in detail to you exactly where that narrative comes from, and why. Like I said, you just don’t like the answers, but you’re incapable of refuting them. You don’t come across as being able to make a coherent argument, Michael. For your sake, I hope you’ve got tenure. From your responses it’s clear that you wouldn’t rise very far in the private sector.
See, you’re confused about everything. I have you so spun up now that you’re posting multiple consecutive comments. I always like that, it shows you’ve got nothin’, so you continue to post random new thoughts as they occur. That amuses me. But I’d prefer that you reply to my specific points. I hate to see a guy floundering around like that (and yes, I know it’s ‘foundering’. Both apply).

Michael Palmer

When you make the statement “science constantly assigns values to outcomes.” you are playing with words. Science does not assign “good” nor “bad” to outcomes. Science is value neutral. Good and bad belong to the study of ethics, a branch of philosophy. So when you label AGW “dangerous” you have left the study of science. Is CO2 beneficial? That depends on the meaning of “beneficial” which of course, science cannot answer.

paqyfelyc

Mr Palmer, assessing if a phenomenon is dangerous or not DO belongs to science. Many science paper explicitly do that. With or without using the word “dangerous” itself.
So, if indeed no scientific paper says that climate change is “dangerous”, well, let’s don’t make fuss nor spend money nor write no rules about it. We already have so many dangerous things to cope with.

Correctomundo, paqyfelyc. Palmer is clueless.
Once in a while we run into someone who paints himself into a corner with illogical nonsense, like Palmer is doing here. The .edu factories collect numbskulls who couldn’t make it in the real world.
So he’s a good example.
Science is used to solve problems. Problems are subdivided into good and bad outcomes. As it turns out, AGW and CO2 are good, confounding the worrywarts. Some of them pointlessly nitpick, instead of manning up and admitting they called it wrong.
Human nature is amusing when you understand it.

Michael Palmer

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OK this has deteriorated into a childish food fight, ALL OF YOU – STOP.
Otherwise I’m closing the thread.

“ Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
What Nick fails to realize is the context of the above quote. The title of the section where the above quote appears:
“Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?”
The NOAA answered their question. No. Global temperature trends over the last decade do not falsify climate predictions. Why? Because near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability.
What time interval would then create a discrepancy? Answer: 15 years or more, “The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
The NOAA concluded by stating:
“Given the likelihood that internal variability contributed to the slowing of global temperature rise in the last decade, we expect that warming will resume in the next few years, consistent with predictions from near-term climate forecasts.”
The NOAA fully expected the warming to resume in the next few years since the time interval would then exceed 15 years.

TYoke

Good post. It would be great if Nick would respond.

“It would be great if Nick would respond.”
I’ll try. But it’s difficult now. For the last year, all my comments have gone through moderation. But now they seem to be going to the spam bin (the last four). Maybe they will be fished out.
“The NOAA fully expected the warming to resume in the next few years since the time interval would then exceed 15 years.”
Again, the NOAA was explicitly writing about ENSO-adjusted trends, of surface temperature. The box begins:
“Observations indicate that global temperature rise has slowed in the last decade (Fig. 2.8a). The least squares trend for January 1999 to December 2008 calculated from the HadCRUT3 dataset (Brohan et al. 2006) is +0.07±0.07°C decade —much less than the 0.18°C decade recorded between 1979 and 2005 and the 0.2°C decade expected in the next decade (IPCC; Solomon et al. 2007).”
They then say
“The trend after removing ENSO (the “ENSO-adjusted” trend) is 0.00°±0.05°C decade, implying much greater disagreement with anticipated global temperature rise. “
That’s the context. It was actually the ENSO-adjusted zero (surface) trend that was bothering them. The ordinary trend was positive. That’s why it is so improper to ignore that caveat. It’s essential to their argument.

richardscourtney

Nick St0kes:
You say

But the key thing (apart from ENSO) there is the 95% level. That says that if you look at just one instance from the population, and find it out of range, that is something that would happen only one time in 20, so you can say that it is likely something unusual is going on. But if you look here and there, hither and yon, then of course you will find occurrences. One in twenty events do happen. And if you extend your range to different regions, they will be found even more often.

NO!
Every climate model runs hot and every climate model always has run hot.

This is not news: I first published on it in peer reviewed literature in 1999.
None of the models – not one of them – could match the change in mean global temperature over the past century if it did not utilise a unique value of assumed cooling from aerosols. So, inputting actual values of the cooling effect (such as the determination by Penner et al.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/07/25/1018526108.full.pdf?with-ds=yes )
would make every climate model provide a mismatch of the global warming it hindcasts and the observed global warming for the twentieth century.
This mismatch would occur because all the global climate models and energy balance models are known to provide indications which are based on
1.
the assumed degree of forcings resulting from human activity that produce warming
and
2.
the assumed degree of anthropogenic aerosol cooling input to each model as a ‘fiddle factor’ to obtain agreement between past average global temperature and the model’s indications of average global temperature.
Nearly two decades ago I published a peer-reviewed paper that showed the UK’s Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) could not model climate and only obtained agreement between past average global temperature and the model’s indications of average global temperature by forcing the agreement with an input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling.
The input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling is needed because the model ‘ran hot’; i.e. it showed an amount and a rate of global warming which were greater than observed over the twentieth century. This failure of the model was compensated by the input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling.
And my paper demonstrated that the assumption of aerosol effects being responsible for the model’s failure was incorrect.
(ref. Courtney RS An assessment of validation experiments conducted on computer models of global climate using the general circulation model of the UK’s Hadley Centre Energy & Environment, Volume 10, Number 5, pp. 491-502, September 1999).
More recently, in 2007, Kiehle published a paper that assessed 9 GCMs and two energy balance models.
(ref. Kiehl JT,Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. GRL vol.. 34, L22710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031383, 2007).
Kiehl found the same as my paper except that each model he assessed used a different aerosol ‘fix’ from every other model. This is because they all ‘run hot’ but they each ‘run hot’ to a different degree.
He says in his paper:

One curious aspect of this result is that it is also well known [Houghton et al., 2001] that the same models that agree in simulating the anomaly in surface air temperature differ significantly in their predicted climate sensitivity. The cited range in climate sensitivity from a wide collection of models is usually 1.5 to 4.5 deg C for a doubling of CO2, where most global climate models used for climate change studies vary by at least a factor of two in equilibrium sensitivity.
The question is: if climate models differ by a factor of 2 to 3 in their climate sensitivity, how can they all simulate the global temperature record with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
Kerr [2007] and S. E. Schwartz et al. (Quantifying climate change–too rosy a picture?, available at http://www.nature.com/reports/climatechange, 2007) recently pointed out the importance of understanding the answer to this question. Indeed, Kerr [2007] referred to the present work and the current paper provides the ‘‘widely circulated analysis’’ referred to by Kerr [2007]. This report investigates the most probable explanation for such an agreement. It uses published results from a wide variety of model simulations to understand this apparent paradox between model climate responses for the 20th century, but diverse climate model sensitivity.

And, importantly, Kiehl’s paper says:

These results explain to a large degree why models with such diverse climate sensitivities can all simulate the global anomaly in surface temperature. The magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity.

And the “magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing” is fixed in each model by the input value of aerosol forcing.
Kiehl’s Figure 2 can be seen here.
Please note that the Figure is for 9 GCMs and 2 energy balance models, and its title is:

Figure 2. Total anthropogenic forcing (Wm2) versus aerosol forcing (Wm2) from nine fully coupled climate models and two energy balance models used to simulate the 20th century.

It shows that
(a) each model uses a different value for “Total anthropogenic forcing” that is in the range 0.80 W/m^2 to 2.02 W/m^2
but
(b) each model is forced to agree with the rate of past warming by using a different value for “Aerosol forcing” that is in the range -1.42 W/m^2 to -0.60 W/m^2.
In other words the models use values of “Total anthropogenic forcing” that differ by a factor of more than 2.5 and they are ‘adjusted’ by using values of assumed “Aerosol forcing” that differ by a factor of 2.4.
So, each climate model emulates a different climate system. Hence, at most only one of them emulates the climate system of the real Earth because there is only one Earth. And the fact that they each ‘run hot’ unless fiddled by use of a completely arbitrary ‘aerosol cooling’ strongly suggests that none of them emulates the climate system of the real Earth.
Richard

“NO!
Every climate model runs hot and every climate model always has run hot.”

That makes no sense as a rebuttal here. Lord M has invoked a statement from NOAA about a fifteen year pause to say that there is something wrong with AGW, which he says now lies outside 95% limits. That 15-year pause statistic was calculated using models (with ENSO correction). It is Lord M who is invoking model results, not I. I am just pointing out that the NOAA calc, right or wrong, was not calculated for the circumstances to which he wishes to apply it.

richardscourtney

Nick Stokes:
You provide a plain daft excuse for my having shown you to be plain wrong.
You wrote

But the key thing (apart from ENSO) there is the 95% level. That says that if you look at just one instance from the population, and find it out of range, that is something that would happen only one time in 20, so you can say that it is likely something unusual is going on. But if you look here and there, hither and yon, then of course you will find occurrences. One in twenty events do happen. And if you extend your range to different regions, they will be found even more often.

That was a clear assertion that the ‘pause’ was a statistical “one time in 20” probability so no big deal. It may have been your misinterpretation of what NOAA wrote in 2008, but so what?
I replied that your assertion was plain wrong when I wrote with explanation

NO!
Every climate model runs hot and every climate model always has run hot.

This is not news: I first published on it in peer reviewed literature in 1999.

“Every” is very different from “one time in 20”.
But you have replied

That makes no sense as a rebuttal here. Lord M has invoked a statement from NOAA about a fifteen year pause to say that there is something wrong with AGW, which he says now lies outside 95% limits. That 15-year pause statistic was calculated using models (with ENSO correction). It is Lord M who is invoking model results, not I. I am just pointing out that the NOAA calc, right or wrong, was not calculated for the circumstances to which he wishes to apply it.

Twaddle!
At very best, your response is sophistry. You said the ‘pause’ was a “one time in 20” probability according to model performance.
You were wrong about model performance and I explained that you were wrong.
“Every” is very different from “one time in 20”.
Richard

“That was a clear assertion that the ‘pause’ was a statistical “one time in 20” probability so no big deal.”
It’s not my assertion. Lord M says, quoting NOAA, that a 15 year pause would rule out a zero trend at the 95% confidence level (not mentioning their proviso of ENSO removal). I’m just explaining what that means – a 5% chance that it could happen in any one observation, and more if you look in repeated places. That is just standard statistical test stuff, and has nothing to do with whether models run hot or cold.

richardscourtney

NS:
Have it your way.
You now claim to be making a purely semantic argument about the specific words Monckton of Brenchley quoted.
Monckton of Brenchley was addressing the fact that model predictions are for warming that are too high (i.e. the models ‘run hot’): he cited the 2008 NOAA statement as example that the models say pauses like the present one are improbable because the models ‘run hot’.
You arm waved about “improbable” not being “impossible”. That was puerile.
I pointed out that your arm-waving is not relevant because as I explained

Every climate model runs hot and every climate model always has run hot.
This is not news: I first published on it in peer reviewed literature in 1999.

But if you want to think you have ‘won’ your argument then do because your semantic point does not alter the fact that Monckton of Brenchley was addressing the reality of model predictions being for warming that are too high (i.e. the models ‘run hot’).
Richard

paqyfelyc

Nick, just wondering in which branch of science people stick to a model+ theory having a 1 out of 20 success record…
“listen, it’s true that our theory predict that rats would survive the experiment, and that 19 out of 20 died. But statistically this can happen, you know, so let’s keep our theory for now”
O_o
Post-modern science, I guess.
Maybe I am getting old…

Geoff Connolly

richardscourtney January 14, 2016 at 2:02 am
As always, another exquisitely lucid and salient contribution.
Thank you for taking the time, Sir.

richardscourtney

Mods:
I posted a response to the above post but it has vanished. Please see if it is in the ‘bin’ and recover it or if it is not there then let me know so I can resubmit it. Thanking you in anticipation
Richard

Until yesterday, mentioning my name would put your comment into moderation. Now it seems to send it to the spam bin. That’s where my comments have been going.
[Reply: it’s the same folder. Your comments are always approved. Lots of comments are delayed for one reason or another, some by Anthony and some by WordPress. Moderators don’t have that editing authority. ~mod.]

Walt D.

Nick:
So you think you know how to identify a trend in a time series?
Want to make a quick $100,000?
Doug Keenan has generated 1000 global-temperature type time series. Some were generated using a trend; some were not.
He has already published an encrypted file of how the series were generated, so he has no way to change things after the fact.. If you can get 900 out of a 1000 right you will win the $100,000 prize.

GISTEMP’s confidence intervals are worthless, except to show us that their alterations to the thermometer-based temperature record are unjustified.
“GISTEMP’s Overconfidence Intervals”
http://bit.ly/1RnNu9X
http://bit.ly/1JMCUa7

great graphics

lorenz

Very nice comparison, thank you very much.
Your statement ‘In short, the Pause may in reality be as long as 22 years 5 months’ led me to this thought:
Around another 22 years before, in the seventies, was the ‘Cooling Hype’.
Cooling, I fear much more than warming, but more and more I think that hypes I fear most.
Regards, Lorenz

GTL

Great presentation! Shameful that the MSM simply ignores information like this.

Another excellent contribution. Thanks for posting.
Also, just found this. It was inevitable:
http://newsdaily.com/2016/01/global-warming-could-stave-off-next-ice-age-for-100000-years/

Bubba Cow

I had hoped I was the only one who had come across that brilliant essay spin (called a ‘study’) including his eminence, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the original 2 degree dart thrower, but alas you are perhaps more of a news junkie than I am. How to spin warming good into bad and now we have ‘natural’ carbon dioxide plus, by inference, ‘unnatural’ man-produced carbon dioxide? Clearly humanity is a virus that only an elite few should survive. Where can one buy some pompous to become one of the guys (survivors)? No thanks.

Marcus

” Clearly humanity is a virus that only an elite few should survive. “….Bubba, that is EXACTLY what the liberal elite believe !!

JohnKnight

marcus,
From the wiki~
“Liberalism is a political philosophy or worldview founded on ideas of liberty and equality.[1] The former principle is stressed in classical liberalism while the latter is more evident in social liberalism.[2] Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but generally they support ideas and programs such as freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, free markets, civil rights, democratic societies, secular governments, and international cooperation.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Liberalism first became a distinct political movement during the Age of Enlightenment, when it became popular among philosophers and economists in the Western world. Liberalism rejected the notions, common at the time, of hereditary privilege, state religion, absolute monarchy, and the Divine Right of Kings. The 17th-century philosopher John Locke is often credited with founding liberalism as a distinct philosophical tradition. Locke argued that each man has a natural right to life, liberty and property,[10] while adding that governments must not violate these rights based on the social contract. Liberals opposed traditional conservatism and sought to replace absolutism in government with representative democracy and the rule of law.”
That corresponds pretty well with what I’ve learned . . and I’m wondering why you keep using the term liberal in such an inverted way . . Is it just ’cause the TV talking heads do?

gaelansclark

JohnKnight…..you mean to tell us that liberals in the USA want liberty and equality?!?
Have you been awake and coherent for any of the past decades?
By the by, “liberalism” does not equal “a liberal”. Much in the same sense that “Communism” (please do show us the wiki link that extolls the beauty and wonderment of a true Communist society where everyone gets the same of everything….koooooommmmbayahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!) does not equal “a Comminist”. You see, in Communist USSR, there were wait lines for toilet paper for the masses but what of the Politbureau???
Trot out your fancies, they dont meet reality.

The meaning of ‘liberal’ has indeed been inverted from the original definition.
Authoritarians have hijacked it.
Given that western democracies are the best embodiment so far of workable non-authoritarian societies then ‘liberating’ peoples from such a system is simply a return to more authoritarianism which is what modern ‘liberals’ are all about.
The same goes for the term ‘progressive’ which has been perverted in an identical manner.
George Orwell accurately described the process in his novel ‘1984’ and termed it ‘Newspeak’.
It is all around us and if left unchecked will eventually destroy the western democracies.

JohnKnight

gaelansclark,
“JohnKnight…..you mean to tell us that liberals in the USA want liberty and equality?!?”
Yes, but many calling themselves liberals are not really liberal . .
If the same people took up calling themselves Saints, . would you grasp why I might question your calling them Saints?

Gunga Din

Soooo …. they are saying that (A)GW is bad because it is delaying an ice age Catastrophe!

Menicholas

I would love to see a soup-to-nuts essay on the subject of warmer vs. colder.
Left out of many excellent discussions is the very pertinent question of just why warming is a thing to be feared, rather than welcomed.
Our planet contains vast areas that are perpetually frozen wastelands, cold enough to kill an unprotected person in minutes, and even larger areas that are seasonally so.
Contrast that with the fact that the hottest places on the Earth are survivable for indefinitely long with a pair of sandals and an adequate water supply.
With the possible exception of an encroaching sea, I have never seen any convincing argument demonstrating that a hotter world is a less hospitable place for life…human or otherwise.
This point should not be ceded any more than any of the other misinformation being promulgated by the warmista fearmongers.

Bubba Cow

spectacular graphics – particularly like the inkblot, etch-a-sketch of ‘predicted warming’

QV

Great post but ultimately a waste of time because it’s preaching to the converted and won’t convince any warmists.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/hottest-year-on-record/

Menicholas

Just because the horses aint drinkin’ is no reason to not lead them to the water.

Monckton of Brenchley

Menicholas is right: the truth prevails more quickly if people take the trouble to tell it.

JPeden

Says I, “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it think.”

Menicholas

“the truth prevails more quickly if people take the trouble to tell it.”
Indeed.
And, in any case, it is my belief that there is a large ocean of humanity sitting between the scientific realists and skeptics on one side, and the CAGW alarmists on the other side, who are struggling to decide what to make of the whole thing.
Many have strong doubts about CAGW and alarmism in general, and this group seems to be growing in size and conviction.
But many others are in the sway and thrall if the warmista alarmists, and it is the constant barrage of misinformation and appeals to emotion that bring many to the beliefs they have.
So, IMO, it is vitally important to keep on keeping on, and to never let the fear mongers be the only voice heard.
And for your efforts in that regard, Viscount Monckton, I thank you.
Sincerely.

jorgekafkazar

The horses have been led to the water countless times. The problem is, the wrong end of the horse is presented to the trough.

Robert B

I received this from someone who studied politics at university

There are only two types of people in the world, those who can extrapolate from incomplete data…

It was with a picture of a cat in a lab so I replied “and dogs can’t?”
I get the feeling that Tamino is either dishonest or is like an arts graduate and doesn’t appreciate the pitfalls of extrapolating data.

Michael Jankowski

[Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, sockpuppet. -mod]

IIRC, a few years back someone posted a screencap of what tamino did to his (skeptical) comment – all the vowels had been removed.

richardscourtney

Robert B:
I thought those “who studied politics at university” believe there are only THREE types of people in the world; i.e. those who can count and those who can’t.
Richard

David A

Lol, all climate scientists are dyslexic. They adjust warming factors down (UHI) and cooling factors up. ( the ice age scare)
Well, not all climate scientist are dyslexic, but 10 out of 4 are!

MarkW

There are 10 types of people in the world.
Those who understand binary, and those who don’t.

Great post!

Those are some really clear and striking graphics in this posting, Viscount Monckton of Brenchley. They are ideal for emailing to waverers in the debate.

George Devries Klein, PhD, PG, FGSA

Viscount Monckton, you NAILED IT!!

Resourceguy

The abject failure is in not owning up to the prediction error. That is fundamental. In a similar vein, a dictator does not own up to shortcomings, an infallible church leader only admits shortcomings of a predecessor with a few century lag, and deadender advocacy groups assault those who even point out the suggestion of a discrepancy.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

Nice summary. One suggestion: it would be instructive when you cite the predictions from the first three Assessment Reports to include the “certainty” value given. As I recall they started out around 90% and have become more certain with each report, even as your graphs show the mismatch between observation and projection has increased.
As Inigo Montoya once said about “inconcievable”, we can note of the IPCC and “certainty”:

You keep using that word. I’m not so sure it means what you think it means.

You keep using that word. I’m not so sure it means what you think it means.

Robert McCloskey Quotable Quote
“I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.”

Alan Watt,
Did you mean this chart?:comment image

Every graph in this post shows about .4deg C warming from 2012 to the present. How is the name of little green apples is that no warming for the past 18 plus years. It has obviously been warming for the past 4 years.
And if you’re going to go with the two point ( start/stop ) trend line BS don’t bother. That is a lie, and not remotely a trend. Heck if you want to do it with 2 points, go back to the Holocene Warming and you have not had any warming for 8 thousand years.
I am not a scientist, or even good at math. I also really hate what the alarmists are doing to science. But please, lets at least be honest: If there has been .4C warming in the past four years, surely one cannot say there has been not been any for18 plus years.

MarkW

You really should spend some time learning before you continue to embarrass yourself.
Lord Monckton did not use a two point trend line.

Oh dear, perhaps you should have kept quiet

Monckton of Brenchley

Mr Denier-o makes an ass of himself again, even though it has already been well explained to him that a least-squares trend is determined on the basis of every monthly data point in the interval, not merely the starting and ending points.
A rather high standard of scientific and mathematical knowledge is expected of commenters here. Try reading any elementary textbook of statistics to see how a least-squares trend is actually determined. Your suggestion that it is determined only from the start-point and endpoint is nonsense.
Also, read the head posting itself rather carefully. One needs at least 15 years of temperature data before one can start drawing tentative conclusions about trends, as NOAA’s State of the Climate report for 2008, cited in the head posting, made clear.
It should be blindingly obvious merely from looking at the temperature graphs in the head posting that there are various ups and downs in temperature during the periods shown. However, the trend line indicating which way temperatures have really moved over the entire selected period is obtained by straightforward calculation. I say there has been no global warming on the RSS dataset for 18 years 8 months because the trend over the past 18 years 8 months, as calculated from the data, is zero.

Thank you for the explanation. I have found a couple of links to learn more about least squares trends. My apologies for my lack, which has caused embarrassment.

Roy Danio said:
Thank you for the explanation. I have found a couple of links to learn more about least squares trends. My apologies for my lack, which has caused embarrassment.
I gotta say, that was pretty classy. Plenty of folks would have either disappeared, or called names.

RD

Well said denio Stick around and learn with us.

Alba

Lord Monckton,
Maybe people do make asses of themselves but as a Catholic can I remind you of something that the Catechism of the Catholic Church states;
2478 To avoid rash judgment, everyone should be careful to interpret insofar as possible his neighbour’s thoughts, words, and deeds in a favourable way:
‘Every good Christian ought to be more ready to give a favourable interpretation to another’s statement than to condemn it. But if he cannot do so, let him ask how the other understands it. And if the latter understands it badly, let the former correct him with love. If that does not suffice, let the Christian try all suitable ways to bring the other to a correct interpretation so that he may be saved.’ (St Ignatius of Loyola, Spiritual Exercises.)

Alan Robertson

Thanks, Alba. The world has been putting that sentiment in my face for days.
I need the reminder.
Ps Good Job, R.D.

Marcus

Roy …..negative 4 added to four equals…ZERO !!! You have to add together ALL the ups and downs..

I am not a scientist, or even good at math.
===============
a self evident truth

If there has been .4C warming in the past four years, surely one cannot say there has been not been any for 18 plus years.
====================
there is quite a large change in the average temperature of the earth every 6 months as we move closer and farther away from the sun because the orbit is not circular.
so, by your reasoning, you cannot say there is any warming of cooling longer than 6 months. How can there be even 1 year of warming, when after 6 months of warming the earth always starts to cool?

Thank you all for the answers, and I do understand fairly well now. However I think the argumentum ad hominem was a bit over the top. And if it makes you feel better to make me out to be stupid, I am glad I could help.

michael of Oz

Hello Roy, a joke, if you will.
Super ego and ego walk into a bar, the barman says “i’d like to see some ID”
Cheers.

Monckton of Brenchley

Mr Denio is in no position to complain about ad-hominem remarks. His original posting included the following sentence: “And if you’re going to go with the two point ( start/stop ) trend line BS don’t bother. That is a lie, and not remotely a trend.”
Accuse your opponents of lying when you do not know what you are talking about and you can expect them not to be too gentle with you in response. Better manners than yours are expected here.

David A

True C.M., yet his honest, humble and exceedingly rare response at 6:09 deserves recognition.

JohnKnight

Roy, I suggest an apology to Mr. Monckton is in order . .

Michael Jankowski

[Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, sockpuppet. -mod]

JohnWho

I agree: Roy Denio displays a sincere desire to understand – a trait shared by real skeptical folks, layman and scientists.

JohnWho

Agreeing with
dbstealey @ January 13, 2016 at 7:13 pm

mebbe

JohnWho,
Maybe yes, maybe no. Roy came on a bit strong at the outset and got a slap or two.
The mea culpa is good but the nom de guerre is suspect.

J

Though it is not the whole world, the USCRN (US climate reference network) another un-adjusted dataset shows NO warming for 10 years, the entire run of the data set.
Search WUWT for USCRN to see some nice graphs of the USA data.
Pristine rural sites, great sensors, NO adjustments allowed.
And, like the satellites—NO warming is observed.

DD More

Yes and it would be more accurate if his Lordship would say instead of “measured warming rates” – “reported warming rates”.comment image
See, there measured (Raw) is not there reported (final).

DD More makes a fair point.

As always, an excellent and clear article from his Lordship.

Bill H

Funny that the Noble Lord Monckton undermines the validity of terrestrial temperature measurements on the basis of their having been corrected when the UAH version 6 that he cites as evidence of lack of warming is the result of a very large correction of the previous UAH version. The UAH series has been the subject of repeated corrections over the last 25 years, so why Lord MOnckton trusts it I can’t imagine

Funny that you don’t understand the nature of the corrections made to the satellite records.

FTOP_T

If you don’t trust advancements in temperature measuring technology, I suggest you ask every doctor you visit to use the time tested method when taking your temperature.
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/01/satellites-versus-surface-temperatures/
I’ll stick with the satellite approach.

repeated corrections
============
Anthony’s study of category 1-2 stations shows that UAH’s results do a much better job of capturing the true surface temperature than does GISS.
The problem for GISS is land use. The bulk of their US sampling is from areas that have been contaminated by land use changes. UAH also has land use changes, but a smaller percentage as compared to GISS. The problem is in trying to adjust out the effects of land use changes. Every adjustment adds uncertainty.
The category 1-2 station have almost no land use changes, and thus require no adjustments.

It may (or may not, as you choose) be worthwhile to make the distinction that UAH “corrects” the way measurements are made while NOAA “corrects” the measurements after they are made.

4 eyes

Roy,
If that was all the data we had i.e. 18 yrs worth, then it would show a zero slope line trend at MoB has stated. It is not a 2 point line. Surely you don’t think temps have to remain flat all the time to say there is no warming or cooling. You are right – temps have increased in the past 4 years. And if you said temps have risen since 1910 you would be right. There is no correct starting point for picking trends and you are right – go back a long time and temps may appear to have remained flat. But 18 years, and counting, is significant because the IPCC was very certain that by now temps would have risen.

CheshireRed

This changes nothing because the climate scam isn’t scientific – it’s politics. Always has been. Hence the strength of presentations like this matter little, as they – alarmists, aren’t interested, aren’t listening and aren’t accepting of contrary scientific evidence that could compromise their political motives. Nice work as ever though, Lord M.

Cheshirered is wrong. It is always valuable to tell the truth to shorten the period when it is unheard.

Phil's Dad

For the illumination of Cheshirered and in support of the noble Lord; politics is most certainly influenced by strong, repetitive argument – as science should not. It may be, as you postulate, that “alarmists aren’t interested”; but alarmists don’t make policy, politicians do – like it or not.
Politicians pay attention – believe it or not – and are well aware of and interested in the work of Lord Monckton, Mr Watts et al. Do they “matter little”. I should say not. They matter a great deal.
Declaration of Interest.
I am a politician and (democratically elected) serving member of the ruling party of Great Britain.
I am delighted to say that the “political environment” (lovely couplet that one) has almost reached the point that questioning CAGW is no longer a statement of resignation from office. Almost. Keep it coming.

CheshireRed

Of course Lord M you’re absolutely right there. Maintaining exposure of blatantly exaggerated projections IS essential, even if those currently in positions of influence or benefitting from the scam refuse to listen. It may take time but eventually the truth will out. Great job as ever.

Phil’s dad, Reminds of the saying “Telling the truth is an act of rebellion” hope the time comes soon when truth is the norm.

This changes nothing because the climate scam isn’t scientific – it’s politics.

And some politicians are paying attention!
I thought Senator Cruz was very well informed on climate issues. I recently found out why. Here:
http://judithcurry.com/2015/12/10/reactions-on-the-senate-hearing/
Judith Curry says this:
“Senator Cruz seems very much into the Data, and generally knowledgable about the scientific process.  One of his staffers is an avid reader of CE, WUWT and apparently Steve Goddard’s blog.“

Warren Latham

Excellent post !
The writer’s prior post of 4th. December 2015 (“The robust Pause resists a robust el Niño Still no global warming at all for 18 years 9 months”) contains fifteen (15) bullet-point type, EXCELLENT, short paragraphs which I attach here.
May I say; there are none (to my knowledge) capable of writing or speaking with such clarity, fairness and such dignity.
START PASTE
The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 225 months from March 1997 to November 2015 – more than half the 443-month RSS record.
.
There has been no warming even though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings since 1750 have occurred since the Pause began in March 1997.
The entire UAH dataset for the 444 months December 1978 to November 2015 shows global warming at an unalarming rate equivalent to just 1.14 Cº per century.
Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 Cº per century.
The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.75 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us.
The fastest warming rate lasting 15 years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century.
Compare the warming on the Central England temperature dataset in the 40 years 1694-1733, well before the Industrial Revolution, equivalent to
4.33 C°/century.
In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of
1.7 Cº/century.
The warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to 1 Cº per century. The IPCC had predicted close to thrice as much.
To meet the IPCC’s central prediction of 1 C° warming from 1990-2025, in the next decade a warming of 0.75 C°, equivalent to 7.5 C°/century, would have to occur.
Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº warming to 2100.
The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than 15 years that has been measured since 1950.
The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950.
The oceans, according to the 3600+ ARGO buoys, are warming at a rate of just 0.02 Cº per decade, equivalent to 0.23 Cº per century, or 1 C° in 430 years.
Recent extreme-weather events cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that.
END PASTE
PS: I do so agree that 1952 was a very good year.
Regards,
WL

Marcus

Warren, you should check out all of his videos..Very informative and sometimes even funny !! IMHO

Warren Latham

Thank you Marcus. I am aware of same and I agree !
Regards,
WL

luysii

From a blog post of mine 13 December 2015
A climate treaty based on a failed model, a victory for the political class
Scientific theories stand or fall based on the accuracy of their predictions. Exactly 100 years ago Einstein’s theory of gravity was welcomed because it corrected an inacurate prediction of Newton’s theory.
It’s worth staying the course to follow what I’m about to describe. The orbits of all our planets are nearly circular — but not exactly so. A circle has a single center; an ellipse has two ‘centers’ (focal points). Planetary orbits have the sun at one focal point of the ellipse (this was known even before Newton). This means that every orbit has a point at which the planet is farthest from the sun (called the aphelion) and a point at which it is closest (the perihelion).
The perihelion doesn’t stay in the same place with each succesive orbit. Rather it moves — this is called the precession of the perihelion. Newton’s formulation of gravity predicted a certain rate at which the perihelion of the planet Mercury moved between sucessive planetary orbits — which was not corroborated by actual measurement.
Physicists a century ago were seriously exercised by this inaccuracy. So how large was it? Quite small. Recall that a circle contains 360 degrees. A degree is far too large for astronomical work. So each degree contains 60 minutes and each minute contains 60 seconds. So a second is 1/3600 of a degree. The discrepancy was a mere 43 seconds per CENTURY.
Contrast this with the inaccuracy of the models of global warming, NONE of which predicted the current stability of global atmospheric temperature as measured by satellite for the past 18+ years. It’s not that CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas the accumulation of which (other things being equal) should reflect radiation back to earth and warm the planet. No one disputes that. It is the magnitude of the CO2 effect and the importance of other factors determining global temperature which is crucial. Clearly global temperature should have continued to rise in the past 19 years as CO2 rose. This is what the models on which the Paris agreement is predicated predicted But there has been no rise.
It’s also fairly sleazy that all the ‘adjustments’ being made to temperatures as measured on the surface of the earth mostly adjust past temperatures downward to preserve the rise. Note that satellite temperatures are the most accurate we have and there is no way to adjust them. Unfortunately they just don’t go back that far.
It is far more accurate to say that global warming has stopped for the past 18+ years. Saying that it has paused implies that it will continue. Some 50 post-hoc explanations of ‘the pause’ have been published.
Bottom line: the concern over global warming is based on models which have failed in their predictions of the present. There is little reason to regard them as more accurate for their predictions of the future.

RogueElement451

” It’s not that CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas the accumulation of which (other things being equal) should reflect radiation back to earth and warm the planet. No one disputes that.”
Not to get into an old argument , but I think you will find plenty of people disputing that over at Principia Scientific !
Oooops . I probably should not have brought up that on Lord Monktons’ post , akin to farting in Church.
Sceptical is as sceptical does is my point .

In short, the Pause may in reality be as long as 22 years 5 months

Nick would also agree here since the lower Cl is negative. Here are the relevant numbers from his algorithm:
http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/temperature-trend-viewer.html
For RSS:
Temperature Anomaly trend
May 1993 to Dec 2015 
Rate: 0.772°C/Century;
CI from -0.030 to 1.574;
t-statistic 1.886;
Temp range 0.125°C to 0.299°C
So RSS shows no statistically significant warming for 22 years and 8 months.
For UAH6.0beta4:
Temperature Anomaly trend
Feb 1993 to Dec 2015 
Rate: 0.822°C/Century;
CI from -0.014 to 1.658;
t-statistic 1.928;
Temp range 0.009°C to 0.196°C
So UAH6.0beta4 shows no statistically significant warming for 22 years and 11 months.

Well done, Werner.

Thank you!

u.k(us)

“The West is purposelessly destroying its industries, …”
=============
Ain’t nobody stupid enough to push that button again, is there ?

Terry

It is undoubtedly the case that climate model predictions are not consistent with the observed (and adjusted) temperature data, and appears not to have improved since 1990.
But this is not evidence that emissions of greenhouse gases have no impact on climate – only that scientific knowledge of atmosphere, ocean circulation, feedback mechanisms etc are inadequately modelled or understood. Confidence claims and assurances that the science is settled are inappropriate.
The “pause” seems in large part an artifact of el nino in 1998. All that has been proven is that however many times the same data set is analysed, you get the same answer – just as you do if you take a little number away from a big one!
The open questions which need to be answered are:
– can the science be improved so that observations and models are more confidently aligned
– if there is an issue what is the best solution – reduce emissions , mitigate or ignore.

The pause does not depend on the 1998 El Niño spike, for that was offset by the 2010 spike. The models have failed.

Christopher, further to your comment about the spike due to the 1997/98 El Nino, that event was followed by the 1998/99/00/01 La Nina.
Cheers.

The “pause” seems in large part an artifact of el nino in 1998.

The slope for RSS is negative whether you start from May 1997 or November 2000. See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997.3/plot/rss/from:1997.3/trend/plot/rss/from:2000.8/trend

brians356

“scientific knowledge of atmosphere, ocean circulation, feedback mechanisms etc are inadequately modelled or understood. Confidence claims and assurances that the science is settled are inappropriate.”
Very comforting to know how little uncertainty underpins A) dismantling the world’s incredibly inexpensive, efficient, and reliable fossil fuel-based energy production and distribution system, and B) condemning billions of human beings to a hopeless subsistence existence, and untold millions of the middle class to declining resources and security.

TYoke

Brian, your response is the correct one. Terry admits that the predictions are inconsistent with observations, but seems perfectly ready nonetheless, to inflict Trillions of dollars of costs on the world economy. Just wave off the fact that the theory has failed the most important test of validity, and barge ahead regardless.

Gloateus Maximus

Ignore is the only policy based upon reality.
CO2 has risen monotonously since 1945. During that interval, the slope of temperature was strongly negative until c. 1977, then weakly positive until c. 1996 (or 1993-4), then slightly negative again since c. 1997.
And for this, we are to reduce CO2 emissions? Why, when the increase has benefited life on this planet?

Robert B

“The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
How did this get interpreted by alarmists once the pause was obvious? That the 95% confidence interval of a fit needed to be below 0°C/century and that the CI were 3 times as big as one would estimate assuming random noise. Basically, the world needed to be cooling at 2°C/century and heading for an ice age before they would conceded the models were flawed.

Christopher Monckton wrote in his lead post,
“To the continuing embarrassment of the profiteers of doom, the least-squares linear-regression trends on Dr Roy Spencer’s UAH satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 18 years 6 months, despite a continuing (and gently accelerating) increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration . . .”

Feynman would expect the “profiteers of doom” to raise a white flag conceding falsification of their hypothesis. But, I think their hypothesis is clearly not even just wrong (falsified), it was only ever just an ages old mythological story signifying a deep yearning for guilt via an original sin meme.
Christopher Monckton, I thank you for your long term persistent efforts at keeping the story alive that there no significant change in GAT temperature for more than 1.5 decades and possibly more than 2 decades. It is a pleasant rhythmic drum beat you have established with your periodic posts on the topic.
John

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) can’t get a single prediction about global warming right, and yet we’re supposed to take drastic, economically harmful action on their say so? Yeah, right.

Tom in Florida

“The IPCC published its First Assessment Report a quarter of a century ago…”
When phrased like that it gives one a real feel for how long this has been going on. And it also makes me realize how old I am getting, not that I needed to be reminded again.

JohnWho

To a fellow Floridian,
does it help to know that not all of that quarter century was this century?

Phil's Dad

97% of it surely.

Tom in Florida

JohnWho January 13, 2016 at 7:42 pm
“To a fellow Floridian, does it help to know that not all of that quarter century was this century?”
No.

RD

Another excellent essay from this author, thanks.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

Is Global Warming a Reality?
Part-I: The use of average of a wider area to study its impact on localized areas like agriculture is bad in science as the average present wide space and time variants in it. Global average temperature anomaly consist of wide variants in terms of climate system and global circulation patterns wherein wind speed and direction plays an important role. Such an average has no significance when we assess the impact on changes in weather, ice and in sea level and as well on water resources & agriculture. Though we are talking of anomaly, they present high variations in space and time: ocean to land; Southern Hemisphere to Northern Hemisphere; country to country and region to region within a country; location to location within a region.
Global warming is put on false foundations. In the literature, it is commonly seen that the word “climate change” is misused as de-facto “global warming”; and “the global [land & ocean] average temperature anomaly” is misused as de-facto global warming. Global warming refers to temperature while climate change refers to meteorological parameters, more specifically to precipitation and temperature. Precipitation presents fluctuations but they are region specific, following general circulation pattern-climate system. This modifies the temperature accordingly. Also, unusual cold & warm conditions prevailing over different parts of the globe are associated with local general circulation patterns and associated multi-decadal Oscillations/Southern Oscillation. For example, Polar Regions are affected by the frequency & duration of occurrence of circumpolar Vortex [6 months day and six months night] and in India the location of High pressure belt around Nagpur.
IPCC in its AR5 stated that more than half of the global [land & ocean] average temperature anomaly is associated with the “greenhouse effect” component [global warming is a part of it] and the remaining [less than half] component is associated with the “non-greenhouse effect” [ecological changes]. It must be noted the fact that: the urban-heat-island effect with its’ dense met network overemphasized and rural-cold-island-effect with less dense met network is underemphasized in the global [land & ocean] temperature anomaly and thus as a result it is over emphasized; but this is not so with the satellite data. The model based predicted temperature anomaly curves are compared with global average temperature anomaly but not with global warming component.
The consensus [the average] of the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report shows no long-term increase in global precipitation from 1861 [the start of the mean of the climate model outputs] to 1999 [the end of the 20th century] though their global average temperature anomaly during the same period presented an increasing trend. However, increase or decrease in precipitation shows a decrease or increase in temperature. For example, during the 2002 and 2009 drought years in India, the annual average temperature has gone up by 0.7 and 0.9 oC.
Sea Breeze and land Breeze patterns over East and West Coasts of India are different. Here we can get the clue from the human comfort equation wherein under the same temperature & humidity conditions with changing wind speed [direction also play an important role based on the location] the human comfort changes. Same way, heat and cold waves, wherein the high pressure belt location and winds decide the direction in which they move and create the heat wave condition in summer and cold wave condition in winter. It is like advection of heat or cold based on winds direction & strength.
Though the precipitation presents fluctuations with different periods, in a rare case of solidarity they all present below or above the average precipitation condition. For example, in the Southern Hemisphere, the fluctuations, though, cycles varied from 52 to 66 years [the main cycle], they all coincidentally come under the below the average condition in 2013. This resulted above the average temperature anomaly in Southern Hemisphere. However, this will be part of natural variation superposed on trend.
The central England the longest continuous instrumental record of annual mean temperature shows 0.95 oC rise during 356 years [1659-2016]. The peak similar to that observed after 1990 was also presented after 1730.
NOAA satellite data of sea ice extent from 1972 – 1990 presented a fluctuation pattern but Northern Hemisphere fluctuation pattern is in opposite direction to that of the Southern Hemisphere fluctuation pattern. That means in one hemisphere when ice is diminishing in the other hemisphere ice is increasing. ARGO buoys data of 430 years show the Oceans are warming by around 0.23 oC per Century.
Part-II: There is a big discussion on: Why there are differences between surface temperature measured in Stevenson Screens and atmosphere as measured by satellite. Here we are not talking of station value but a region value and the averaging over that region. Also, we are talking of trend and not the fluctuation part. To get meaningful answer to such questions we must compare and explain for the causes of differences.
Reports state that “RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly data set shows no global warming for 18 y 8 m since May 1997, though one-third of all the anthropogenic forcing have occurred during the period of pause. The UAH satellite data showed a pause almost as long as the RSS data set. However, the much altered surface datasets show a warming rate 1.1 oC per Century during the period of pause for May 1997 to September 2015. During 1997-2016 the difference in the warming trend between RSS [satellite data] and GISS [surface data] is around 0.25 oC. Also, Global Temperature trends [Phil Jones] repeated with around 0.15-0.16 oC during 1860-1880, 1910-1940 & 1975-2009. Between 1979 and 2014 two volcanoes have occurred, namely Chichon in 1983 and Pinatubo in 1991 presented cooling effect prior to 1997/98 El Nino.
Part III: When the data presents different patterns, blindly fitting the data to linear, it gives misleading conclusions. For example, if we use the data of 1978 to 2015 [444 months or 37 years], UAH satellite data presents a trend of about 1.14 oC per Century. After seeing this trend that contains period before and after 1997/98 El Nino, I pointed out saying that while fitting such data, we must eliminate the anomaly associated with El Nino affect or fit the data sets prior and after El Nino periods separately to see the trend. I have seen this in https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/ an article “Earth and Water” on January 13, 2016. The analysis of both the periods namely prior and after 1997 showed a “nearly zero trend”. Some mentioned that prior to 1997 volcanic activity cooled the temperature and after 1997 the raised temperature did not come down in surface data but in satellite data it did come down and followed a zero trend pattern. If the difference is zero at 1997, it is 0.25 oC at 2015. That is the difference in around 18 years is 0.25 oC and the surface data showed an increase of 1.1 oC per Century.
In the North Extra Tropics: the differences between the prior and after 1997 data series of 229 and 216 months data series with zero trend showed a sudden jump around 1997 by 0.48 oC on land 0.26 oC on ocean. This is the difference between volcanic cooling and El Nino warming on land and in ocean. The below table show the differences under three surface measurements and two satellite measurements in three different periods:
Measurements 1990-2015 1995-2015 2001-2015
[oC per Century]
Surface measurements:
GISS 1.71 1.51 0.76
HadCRUT4 1.62 1.52 1.11
NCEI 1.58 1.49 1.40
Average 1.64 1.51 1.09
Satellite measurements:
RSS 1.11 0.42 – 0.11
UAH 1.00 0.38 0.12
Average 1.05 0.40 0.00
After the El Nino in 1997/98 the global average temperature anomaly has gone up and maintained that trend under the ground based data series; but under satellite data series the temperature anomaly has come down and presented no trend. Under the Southern Oscillation, the temperature rises during El Nino phase and thereafter the temperature drops down and later recovers to normal condition. However, the changes in temperature associated with the Southern Oscillation and volcanic activity becomes part of intra-annual and intra-seasonal variations and thus their contribution to long term trend is insignificant.
From the above table it is clear that in all the data sets, they presented a decreasing trend per Century. Can we call this a non-linearly decreasing trend in the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gases effect?
Some argued that the atmospheric temperature anomalies are necessarily different from surface anomalies. Usually, atmospheric anomalies are less than the surface maximum in hot periods and higher than the surface anomalies in cooler periods. It is like night and day conditions. We need to average them and thus they should present the same averages both surface & satellite measurements.
Here we must remember the fact that the surface data does not cover the entire climate system and general circulation patterns. Particularly in land areas, the met stations are dense in urban areas and sparse in rural areas — this is clearly evident in Australia’s met net work and also the periods are different. Satellite data covers all the climate systems and general circulation patterns. Thus, surface data is more biased with urban conditions and thus expected high global temperatures. This is what the present scenario. Lowering the past data series and raising the current data series also add to this. Naturally surface data will be higher than satellite data.
What we need to address now is: study the local regional temperature patterns and look in to causes for regional and local differences. Then only it serves the needs of policy makers to common man. Without that, simply harping on global average will lead to disasters in coming decades with trillions of dollars spending on good for nothing theory of “Global Warming & Carbon Credits”.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Formerly Chief Technical Advisor – WMO/UN & Expert – FAO/UN
Fellow, Andhra Pradesh/Telangana Akademy of Sciences
Convenor, Forum for a Sustainable Environment
Hyderabad, Telangana, India
jeevanandareddy@yahoo.com

David A

…Need paragraphs, shorten with link. ( just a suggestion)

JohnKnight

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy,
“What we need to address now is: study the local regional temperature patterns and look in to causes for regional and local differences. Then only it serves the needs of policy makers to common man. Without that, simply harping on global average will lead to disasters in coming decades with trillions of dollars spending on good for nothing theory of “Global Warming & Carbon Credits”.”
Thank you for trying to get the science back on track, and back to work trying to help real people with real need of useful climatology/meteorological information and research. No doubt some in the field have never stopped in the effort you champion here, and it’s a shame they are being drowned out by this grotesque caricature of real science they call “climate change”.

The big difference between alarmists and sceptics is how much we think we know. They know they know how the climate must change – we know they don’t know. But better still, we know we don’t know and that anyone who thinks they can predict the climate is a fool …
… except this year we have an el nino that failed to produce the expected warming. In addition there are two reasons to believe we are about to see cooling (low sunspot activity and what appears to be a 60year cycle in the climate which peaked around 2010.
So, 2016 appears to have the greatest chance of a trend as three different indicators suggest cooling. If however we do see cooling (in the only reliable temperature from the satellites), then there is a good chance of global cooling in the next 20 years. But given how small these global changes are compared to local effects, I doubt anyone will be able to spot it except by looking at statistics.

tatelyle

Their theory does not work because the primary feedback agent is probably albedo, rather than CO2. Prof Clive Best has a good review of the albedo feedback concept over on his site.
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=7024

Climate ‘Computer modelling’
Posted on January 14, 2016 by madmikedavies
The blogosphere is full of claims of bad science and data corruption in the climate change machine. Most of these claims are sound and CAGW is mostly discredited.
To confound the public and compound their errors and bad science billions of dollars have been spent on supercomputers and computer models which continually make alarmist predictions which are at odds with the empirical observations.
The whole UN/IPCC proposals, claims and plans are built on this crumbling edifice. I came across the following quote which seems apt.
‘To Err is Human; To Really Foul Things Up Requires a Computer’
madmike

David A

Yes the projected harms are worse science on top of failed science.
Instead of basing there projected harm’s on actual observations of both T change and harm flux, they are based on the modeled mean of consistently wrong in one direction climate models.
Inconceivable!##, but the shisters use falsified predictions to project harms. Models trump reality.
Additionally, even if greater warming ever manifests, there is much evidence that the projected harms are greatly exaggerated and the benefits largel underestimated.

What I don’t understand is I was able to dismiss the CAGW claims myself over 5 years ago just by examining the graphs in the Wikipedia article on Milankovich, and my knowledge of geology 101 and oscillators. How has this fraud persisted so long

When all the “solutions” to a problem all strangely converge towards socialism, then we don’t have science, we have a secular religion.

richardscourtney

buckwheaton:
When all the solutions to a problem all converge towards socialism then we have additional evidence of the efficacy of socialism.
If there is a “problem” and if all its solutions converge towards socialism then any other conclusion is a non sequitur.
Richard

MarkW

Real world data shows that socialism makes all problems worse.

richardscourtney

MarkW:
Real world data shows your political opinions are wrong.
Richard

JohnKnight

richardscourtney
He put the word solutions in quotes, and you know why, I believe . . And that makes what you just did . . well, you know what, I believe ; )

richardscourtney

JohnKnight:
I do know what I did: I told the truth.
I don’t know – and I don’t want to know – what you “believe”.
Richard

Leonard Weinstein

I truly do not see the need of looking back only a decade or two or even three to show that models are wrong. Going from 1940 to the present only shows 0.5 C per century based on the surface data (which is likely in error on the high side anyway). The period of 1850 to present only shows less than 0.5 C per century. Picking a start point in the local low period (1945 to 1978) and going forward is cherry picking for a slope. There is no basis from the data for saying there is any measurable effect, even though it is likely there is a small human effect.

Jeff

“…the mean of the three much-altered terrestrial tamperature datasets since May 1997…”
TAMPERATURE! I love it. Make it so.

Bartemis

That’s a beaut. I imagine the conversation between Karl and his superiors went something like that classic scene in Casablanca:
Captain Renault (Karl): But, I’ve no excuse to [alter the data].
Major Strasser (his boss): FInd one.

Rick (Dr. Curry): How can you [change the data]? On what grounds?
Captain Renault (Karl): I’m shocked, shocked! To find [that the two sea surface measurements differ in quality]. I’ll adjust the best ones to agree with the worst ones.

Tom Graney

Can someone comment about creating a simple model which duplicates observed temperature data in terms of long term trend and month to month variability. When I create such a model, when the month to month variability is high enough to match actual data (using random values), the resulting trends are too great.

benben

It would be interesting – and not to mention more relevant – to see the difference between the various temperature records and more recent models (e.g. AR5). The models in 1990 really aren’t comparable to current models, so its fairly unfair to keep using them as a comparison point. But I am really interested in seeing how the most recent models perform!
Cheers,
Benben

In response to the apical stone of an Egyptian pyramid, one needs a minimum of 15 years’ data to make a fair comparison between prediction and observation. So we can’t test the AR4/CMIP3 or AR5/CMIP5 models yet.
And it’s not unfair to show how wildly exaggerated were the original predictions on which the scare was based.

benben

Dear Monckton of Brenchley,
Thank you for your reply.
The thing is, these projections from the 90’s weren’t much more than back of the envelope linear extrapolations. They weren’t used for anything else than to say ‘look, there might be a problem in this direction, more research is necessary’. And then a lot of research was done, and based on AR5 projections people still think there is a problem.
Obviously I really enjoy debating this with my colleagues, which is why I keep reading this blog. And just yesterday I spent an evening talking with a couple of policy makers in environmental policy on this topic. They said that current policy is made on the basis of current science, which is a valid point to make. If WUWT wants to make a useful contribution to the debate then critiquing AR5 is the way to go (and conversely, critiquing 1990 models weakens your argument).
With respect to having to wait 15 years… I agree that would obviously be best. But it’s not really a useful option when deciding what policy to make today (and it’s not a lot of fun either! I don’t want to wait 15 years to continue debating this with my friends). Looking at how accurate AR5 models are at recreating past climate patterns is a valid approach for getting a rough feel for how accurate they will be in predicting future trends. Important point: for policy purposes, climate models don’t need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough (e.g. economic models suck, but we still use them every day). The interesting question is, are AR5 models good enough for policy?
Also interesting would be to see how AR5 compares to AR3 and AR1. I’ve seen a lot of comments here that climate models have not become any better at all in the past decade. Is that actually true? Can we have a graph showing that? It would be a good stick to beat my science friends with!
Cheers,
benben

jhborn

It’s not clear that Lord Monckton has always been so reticent about AR5. In connection with the Monckton et al. paper’s Fig. 6, which supposedly demonstrated the skill of the authors’ “irreducibly simple climate model,” he and his co-authors say of the “IPCC (2013 final draft)” that it projects a 0.13 K/decade trend for the remainder of this century, a trend that exceeds the 0.11 K/decade trend the Monckton et al. paper says the HadCRUT4 dataset exhibited for the last 67 years.
Unfortunately, that paper didn’t burden its readers with the forcing assumptions on which that graph was based, so its logic is, well, obscure. Since RCP 6.0 scenario’s trend for the rest of the century is over half again the trend it recommends be assumed for the last 67 years, for example, that graph’s trend comparison could be seen to suggest that if anything the IPCC may actually have underprojected the coming trend, not overprojected it.
Of course, the HadCRUT4 values have resulted from numerous trend-increasing adjustments, and one can always reach different conclusions by using different datasets, time intervals, and/or forcing values. The values mentioned above are merely the ones that the authors inexplicably thought demonstrated the superiority of their model’s skill over that of the models on which the IPCC relies.

Mr Born , having been caught lying in the opening sentence of a head posting futilely and ignorantly attempting to attack our paper in vol. 60 no. 1 of the Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and having been called out on his lie by numerous commenters, and having had the oseudoscience in that posting utterly dismantled, has been whining lay petulant ever since.
Let readers decide for themselves by downloading the paper from scibull.com. From the home page just click “Most read papers” and we are by an order of magnitude the all-time no. 1.

benben

AR5 my dear sirs, AR5. I’m not saying anything about who is wrong or right. I’m just much more interested in seeing how modern models perform than how those really simplistic 1990’s graphs look!
Cheers,
Ben

jhborn

Mr Born , having been caught lying in the opening sentence of a head posting. . . .
So long as Lord Monckton continues thus to slander me in his attempts to divert attention from the substance, which in this case is that his paper’s purported demonstration of skill is anything but, I will continue to set for the facts that show that I’m not the one who’s the liar here.
The basis for his allegation is a passage in which I referred to a post of mine as a request and to his reply post as turning it down.
The issue was the contents of Monckton et al.’s Table 2. That table’s caption claims that all of its entries, which Monckton et al. refer to as “transience fractions,” were “derived from” a paper by Gerard Roe. Unless “derived from” means “inconsistent with,” however, that caption is a falsehood. Roe’s Fig. 6 shows that at every point in time after t = 0 the response value for a higher-feedback system must exceed that for every lower-feedback system. In contrast, the Monckton et al. table’s first-row entries dictate that in the early years the lowest-feedback system’s response exceed higher-feedback systems’.
Readers before me had placed those quantities at issue in blog threads in which Lord Monckton participated. Characteristically, however, any answers he gave were at best evasive; even in the face of objections that such values appeared to be non-physical he failed to explain how he could possibly have inferred from Roe et al. that the zero-feedback values would be unity for all time values.
To elicit a clear explanation, therefore, I cranked up the volume: I wrote a post specifically entitled “Reflections on Monckton et al.’s Transience Fraction.” In that post I explicitly stated that the manner in which Monckton et al. inferred that table’s values had not been made entirely clear.
So it was hardly a stretch for a subsequent post of mine to refer to that earlier post as a “request for further information about how the Table 2 ‘transience fraction’ values . . . were obtained from a Gerard Roe paper’s Fig. 6.” Nor was it inappropriate for me to characterize as turning down that request a reply post in which Lord Monckton merely repeated the paper’s contention that “The table was derived from a graph in Gerard Roe’s magisterial paper of 2009 on feedbacks and the climate” without explaining, as I requested, how that could possibly be true.
By hyperlinking the word “request” to it, I explicitly identified my previous post as the request. I similarly hyperlinked “turned down” to his reply post. No one who knows how to click on a hyperlink could have had any excuse for not knowing what those terms referred to.
Such is the forthright, above-board, completely transparent behavior that Lord Monckton has chosen to characterize as a lie. That he would thus resort to slander is an indication of how desperate he is to avoid a technical discussion, in which it would be apparent to anyone that the authors did not understand even their own “transience fraction” concept. His doing so is of a piece with the posts in which he claims to have “utterly dismantled” mine: it continues his practice of distortion, evasion, and misdirection.
Incidentally, “whining” is the term Lord Monckton appears to use to refer to rigorous arguments to which he has no creditable answer.

jhborn

I flubbed the tags in my last comment. It should have been:

Mr Born , having been caught lying in the opening sentence of a head posting. . . .

So long as Lord Monckton continues thus to slander me in his attempts to divert attention from the substance, which in this case is that his paper’s purported demonstration of skill is anything but, I will continue to set for the facts that show that I’m not the one who’s the liar here.
The basis for his allegation is a passage in which I referred to a post of mine as a request and to his reply post as turning it down.
The issue was the contents of Monckton et al.’s Table 2. That table’s caption claims that all of its entries, which Monckton et al. refer to as “transience fractions,” were “derived from” a paper by Gerard Roe. Unless “derived from” means “inconsistent with,” however, that caption is a falsehood. Roe’s Fig. 6 shows that at every point in time after t = 0 the response value for a higher-feedback system must exceed that for every lower-feedback system. In contrast, the Monckton et al. table’s first-row entries dictate that in the early years the lowest-feedback system’s response exceed higher-feedback systems’.
Readers before me had placed those quantities at issue in blog threads in which Lord Monckton participated. Characteristically, however, any answers he gave were at best evasive; even in the face of objections that such values appeared to be non-physical he failed to explain how he could possibly have inferred from Roe et al. that the zero-feedback values would be unity for all time values.
To elicit a clear explanation, therefore, I cranked up the volume: I wrote a post specifically entitled “Reflections on Monckton et al.’s Transience Fraction.” In that post I explicitly stated that the manner in which Monckton et al. inferred that table’s values had not been made entirely clear.
So it was hardly a stretch for a subsequent post of mine to refer to that earlier post as a “request for further information about how the Table 2 ‘transience fraction’ values . . . were obtained from a Gerard Roe paper’s Fig. 6.” Nor was it inappropriate for me to characterize as turning down that request a reply post in which Lord Monckton merely repeated the paper’s contention that “The table was derived from a graph in Gerard Roe’s magisterial paper of 2009 on feedbacks and the climate” without explaining, as I requested, how that could possibly be true.
By hyperlinking the word “request” to it, I explicitly identified my previous post as the request. I similarly hyperlinked “turned down” to his reply post. No one who knows how to click on a hyperlink could have had any excuse for not knowing what those terms referred to.
Such is the forthright, above-board, completely transparent behavior that Lord Monckton has chosen to characterize as a lie. That he would thus resort to slander is an indication of how desperate he is to avoid a technical discussion, in which it would be apparent to anyone that the authors did not understand even their own “transience fraction” concept. His doing so is of a piece with the posts in which he claims to have “utterly dismantled” mine: it continues his practice of distortion, evasion, and misdirection.
Incidentally, “whining” is the term Lord Monckton appears to use to refer to rigorous arguments to which he has no creditable answer.

Thanks, Christopher, Lord Monckton. This is (as always) a very good essay.
You keep beating CAGW’s dead horse, but politicians keep riding it.
The only solution to a political problem is a political solution.

Jeff (FL)

There is either a highly amusing typo, if that’s what it is, or a glorious pun in the description of your 3rd graph. when you refer to “terrestrial TAMPERature”. Surely that should be the new standard description of the land-based records, as they have indeed been extensively tampered with. 🙂
So, ‘fess up. Did you mean to say that, or was it accidental? If the former, chapeau!!!

TAMPERature was deliberate, and I’ve used it before, but it bears using again.

Ah, I see someone else caught that first, a few hours ago. Sharp eyes, Jeff.

lorenz

This is probably offtopic, but I want to know.
Disclaimer: I’m no climate scientist. Neither am I a meteorologist. I try to think scientifically.
When I read Heinlein’s ‘Farmer in the sky’ in the eighties, his proposed heat trap sounded very
much like the now often heard greenhouse effect.
And it is very believable and also observable. With a cloud cover at night, it stays much warmer than with clear skies. This seems to imply that there is some kind of greenhouse effect.
Anyone?
Thanks, Lorenz

Of course there is a greenhouse effect. That is not really in question, or should not be. Given an atmosphere which absorbs radiation significantly in the band radiated by the surface, all things being equal, that atmosphere causes the surface to warm beyond what it otherwise would have been.
It is the “all things being equal” that is the rub. E.g., if increasing CO2 produces additional warmth, which then causes water to evaporate leading to clouds that shield the surface from incoming radiation, then the increase in CO2 may cause no discernible change in surface temperatures at all.
The Earth’s thermal regulatory system is very complex. They are many other potential feedbacks such as the cloud reaction suggested about which can ameliorate, or entirely cancel, any induced warming. So, it is by no means guaranteed that increasing concentration of a specific “greenhouse” gas will necessarily produce an increase in surface temperatures.

JohnKnight

lorenz,
As I see this matter you ask about, it is entirely possible that CO2 in the atmosphere will have some effect on global average temperatures, but entirely impossible that human CO2 emissions would be a dominant effect. And unlikely to be more than a minor player in the vast exchange of energy between the Sun and deep space, via the Earth ; )
One detail (among many I feel) that perhaps might give you a quick grasp of the problem with attributing vast powers of change to CO2, is that it has been experimentally discovered/demonstrated that any such “interference” in the energy emissions from ground toward space, is limited and increases at an ever diminishing rate with additional CO2.
For a cloud cover analogy, imagine a thin cloud layer obscuring the moon. Say, 50% obscured on average. Another layer obscures quite a bit more, another quarter of the view, and then a significant eight . . but the next and next etc, fade into insignificance.
The CO2 gas itself has done it’s little warming thing for the most part, and we’re in fade away territory in terms of further effect, as I understand the matter. . Only through supposed “positive feed-backs” is it even possible to go scary with this. The trace plant food gas enraging the Furies and triggering a great flood, and whatever suits the current political narrative, is dependent on CO2’s effect getting amplified.
Mr. Monckton is essentially asking, as I hear him; to put it crudely ; )
*What if we don’t amplify that signal? What if it’s just “normal” physical matter, and causes a slight warming, and not Super Warming! . . The fart that ate the windstorm!!* ; )

lorenz

Thanks for your explanations. I just had read the Wiki-articles on moon and mars. They both have an average surface temperature around -55°C. So that’s without an atmosphere. Venus, by comparison has around 464°C, with an atmosphere of quite different composition, and nearer to the sun.
So there IS a greenhouse effect, but the science is far from settled. (As if it ever could B-)

JohnKnight

(You’re welcome of course, lorenz . . One thing about Venus that needs to be born in mind when discussing “greenhouse effect” is that the atmosphere there, is over 90 times as dense as here on Earth!)

grumpyoldman22

It matters not one jot what climate models and imaginary, creative temperature definitions are fed into them can be massaged to say. A large part of what Lord Chris and subsequent respondents postulate is founded on changes these temperatures may cause in various parts of our Earth.
Fixation on an incorrectly selected parameter at least causes vast additions of hot air and friction to a political ploy without any obvious progress toward its final solution or extinction.
Temperature is a spatial and temporal property of matter. It may be measured in a clearly defined, finite, element of matter in equilibrium with its neighbours and that measurement taken as the average for that element. Mass or energy transfer to or from that element over time will change its temperature property. These transfers are the basis for our weather systems. The integral of weather is climate.
It beggars my belief that an imaginary global average temperature was selected as the prime driver of this socio-eco-political debate when the most likely scientific driver for it is global average heat (energy) content. Ask a global warming believer to define average global temperature and watch as apoplexy sends the questioner to Google where it will not be found.
Lord Chris’ fixation on the history of IPCC and temperature driven effects (or non-effects) at least allows readers to see the futility of the debate so far.

Whether we like it or not, the true-believers found their manufactured alarm on globally-averaged temperatures. Yet globally-averaged temperatures are not rising. They are worried, therefore, and rightly.

u.k(us)

If the stock market continues its swoon, again, we’ll soon find our priorities.
It ain’t gonna be new methods to increase the price of electricity, which seems to be truly the last recession-proof game.

Bartemis

“They show ZERO variance from standard gas law. They prove definitively there is no previously un-noted effect. “
The “standard gas law” can get you the dry adiabatic lapse rate. That is the rate of change of temperature with altitude. Given a temperature at some altitude, then you can figure out the temperature at all altitudes. But, from where do you get that reference temperature?
It’s like saying the speedometer on your car gives you your velocity, so why would you need a GPS unit to tell you where you are? I traveled in a straight line from point A at uniform velocity V for time T, so I am now at point B = A + V*T. Fine but, where actually is B? I cannot know until you tell me where point A is.

Harry Twinotter

A cherry-pick of a cherry pick.
You are starting off with the result you want, then picking the period on that basis.

HT, Lord Monckton always posts a wealth of detailed evidence. You only post your baseless opinion. That’s really lame.
You make assertions, and expect readers to accept them? Why? You have no credibility; those are just your opinions. Without any evidence, facts, or data, your assertions mean nothing.
You can’t understand that, can you?

u.k(us)

Never underestimate the deviousness of your opponent, they might just be trying to SMOKE you out.

Harry Twinotter

dbstealey.
You do know what a “cherry pick” is, don’t you?
Now, if you were to go about this like a true skeptic, you would counter my argument by demonstrating why it isn’t a cherry pick.
This is a good video to watch for background.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

Harry Twinotter — Though I did not understood the issue from the video, I would like to give my experience on the satellite data.
Indian Meteorological Society [IMS] organizes a national symposium “TROPMET” since 1992. In 1995, the IVth in the series was conducted at National Remote Sensing Agency [NRSA], Hyderabad during February 8-11, 1995. The symposium proceedings were published at:
R. K. Gupta & S. Jeevananda Reddy, [Edts.] 1999. “Advanced Technologies in Meteorology”, Tata McGraw-Hill Publ. Comp. Limited, New Delhi, 549p.
In this two of my articles are also included, with titles “Advanced Technology in Disaster [Due to Agricultural Drought] Mitigation: An African Experience” [9-16 pp] and “Problems and Prospects of the Application of Meteorological Data in Agriculture: Models and Interpretation of Results” [419-426pp].
Out of nine sessions, three sessions allocated to space measurements and applications. Several scientists from several institutions presented papers using such data. During the presentation sessions one scientist who was associated with the institution that is responsible for decoding the data from space instruments, observed that the data is not correct. Then I questioned him, if the data is not correct why did you release such data for research by institutions? When you detected the errors, you should have informed the groups whom you supplied the data. But, he did not responded to it. Later, I came to know that this is game of politics.
International agency in the same way, the satellite temperature data was put on the internet and later withdrew from the internet as this data showed far less than ground based data. In fact, I used this data in my book published in 2008 [available on net].
In ground based average temperature is derived from maximum and minimum, thinking it followed a sine curve [with day and night length are the same. In reality it is not so. If you cut the hourly data from the thermograph, the average may or may not be equal based on the skewness from the sine curve that vary with the cloud conditions and changes in the duration of day & night.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

Menicholas

“In ground based average temperature is derived from maximum and minimum, thinking it followed a sine curve [with day and night length are the same. In reality it is not so. If you cut the hourly data from the thermograph, the average may or may not be equal based on the skewness from the sine curve that vary with the cloud conditions and changes in the duration of day & night.”
I am very happy to see you make this point, Dr. Reddy.
This very obvious detail has bothered me for a very long time, and we rarely see it mentioned.
But I think it is only one of many problems with the surface data, and using such to derive a so-called global average temperature.

Monckton of Brenchley

The furtively pseudonymous “Harry Twitotter” appears, as usual, to be unable to read. The graphs presented in the head posting give results for all five principal global-temperature datasets (no cherry-pick there, then), and for three separate time-periods whose start-points are, respectively, the years of publication of the First, Second and Third ASSessment Reports of the IPCC, whose predictions the head posting tested against the measurements of the five global-temperature datasets. No cherry-pick there, then, either.
The fact is that the world is not warming anything like as fast as predicted. There is no climate crisis. And that’s that.

Dennis Horne

So, increasing CO2 in the atmosphere 40% from 280 to 400ppm since industrialisation doesn’t increase the energy retained by Earth, causing climate change.
I’ll be enormously reassured when nearly every climate scientist and informed scientist and scientific society on the planet explains why.

Dennis Horne,
Explain what dark matter is. What mediates it? After all, it comprises most of the universe.
What, you can’t explain it? That’s OK. You don’t have to explain something to know it has an effect or not. You just have to observe.
You commented on the observation that CO2 has increased by 40%. But global warming stopped many years ago.
What do you make of that? Looks like those climate scientists and scientific societies were wrong, doesn’t it?
So, who are you gonna believe? Those scientists? Or your lyin’ eyes?

Dennis Horne

Good gracious a dark-matter man! I would expect added greenhouse gas to add energy. Indeed, if it wasn’t found I would assume difficulties with detection and measurement. Anyway, the results are in.
http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Annual_time_series_combined1.png
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html
Who to believe? Gosh, I wish all questions were so easy to answer!

Harry Twinotter

Interesting result from Berkeley Earth.
For 2015, they are saying it is a clear record this time. No “statistical ties” and stuff like that.
Oh well I will wait and see what spin is put on it. The usual tactic is to just deny the data, followed up by some sort of Conspiracy Theory.

Ah, now any evidence contrary to HT’s assertions is a “conspiracy theory”.
Got it.
Satellite data shows that 2015 is nothing to write home about. But spin that any way you like…

Harry Twinotter

dbstealey.
So you are unwilling to discuss the video. Or the results from Berkeley Earth.
Got it 🙂

otterboi, I don’t watch your videos. Waste of time. As for Berkeley Earth:comment image
Wake me if you get it…

Dennis Horne

You commented on the observation that CO2 has increased by 40%. But global warming stopped many years ago.
Then this ‘allegation’ must be of interest to you. CO2 increase and global surface temperature increase since 1958 are correlated at the >99% confidence level:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1958.16/mean:12/normalise/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/normalise

Dennis Horne says:
I would expect added greenhouse gas to add energy.
And I would think you need to get educated on the difference between insulation and ‘adding energy’. CO2 does not “add energy”.
Next, your graph is simply an overlay of CO2 and temperature. It doesn’t show “correlation” like you think it does.
As a noobie here, you probably don’t know that changes in temperature cause subsequent changes in CO2. So I suggest reading the WUWT archives for a few weeks, at least. Use the keyword “CO2”. You will find lots of information on causation.
Then come back and we can discuss the issue as educated folks.

Bartemis

Dennis Horne –
“I would expect added greenhouse gas to add energy.”
No, at best, you would expect them to trap more energy. And, perhaps you would expect a heavier object to fall faster than a lighter object. Or, that light beamed from an object moving toward you would travel faster than from an object moving away from you. Expectations come in all shapes and sizes. Not all of them pan out. That is why the scientific method demands that you confirm your expectations experimentally.
There are several avenues for feedback responses which could render any warming tendency of additional CO2 null and void. There are convective flows of energy past the filter of IR radiative gases in the lower atmosphere. There are cloud responses, vegetative responses, and others.
The Land-Ocean plot you show is doubtless fudged towards the end. Sure, you can claim it isn’t, but we’ve seen too much of that activity to have any confidence in that claim. Moreover, the warming trend from 1910-1940 is every bit as rapid as the trend from 1970-2000, yet the rate of CO2 emissions was not anywhere near the same in the two periods. The growth was not exponential – it was clearly delineated into two separate regimes in the two periods – so you cannot argue it is just a logarithmic response.
So, not only is it not proven that CO2 has been a significant driver of temperatures, it is not at all proven even that it can be one. Believing that it has and that it is, is a statement of faith, not of science.
“CO2 increase and global surface temperature increase since 1958 are correlated at the >99% confidence level:”
Nonsense. You can make any two trending variables with minimal curvature of the same sign look similar to one another by scaling and offsetting – just do a linear regression on the one with respect to the other. What is difficult it getting correlation between all the peaks and valleys, as here. That plot shows that CO2 concentration is the effect, and temperature is the cause.

co2islife

So, increasing CO2 in the atmosphere 40% from 280 to 400ppm since industrialisation doesn’t increase the energy retained by Earth, causing climate change.

MODTRAN calculations quantify that increase in energy being trapped, and when you add H2O to the mix CO2 effectively becomes irrelevant. Do the calculations yourself. BTW 600 million years and no Co2 driven catastrophic warming. I have 600 million years of evidence, you have the opinion of “experts.”
http://www.sustainableoregon.com/_wp_generated/wpcdf36281.png