Forecasts 25% rise in annual CO2 emissions by 2035
BP has controversially predicted that the huge rise in energy demand over the next 20 years can only be met with fossil fuels.
According to BP;
“Rising global demand for energy over the next two decades is at odds with the fight against climate change, the head of BP said on Tuesday, as he outlined the oil giant’s forecasts showing unsustainable increases in carbon emissions.
BP’s annual energy outlook predicted that the world economy would double in size in the next 20 years, resulting in demand for energy rising by almost 40%. The company said two-thirds of this demand would be met from fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – and that this would lead to a 25% increase in carbon emissions.
BP said slower growth in China and India coupled with greater energy efficiency would mean that demand would rise by 1.5% a year over the next two decades, rather than the 2.5% a year recorded during the past decade.
From BP’s forecast paper:
Fossil fuels are projected to provide the majority of the world’s energy needs, meeting two-thirds of the increase in energy demand out to 2035. However, the mix will shift. Renewables and unconventional fossil fuels will take a larger share, along with gas, which is set to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, as well as the cleanest, meeting as much of the increase in demand as coal and oil combined. Meanwhile, coal is now expected to be the slowest growing fuel, as industrialization in emerging Asian economies slows and environmental policies aroundthe globe tighten.
That brings us to the environmental challenge. The most likely path for carbon emissions, despite current government policies and intentions, does not appear sustainable. The projections highlight the scale of the challenge facing policy makers at this year’s UN-led discussions in Paris. No single change or policy is likely to be sufficient on its own. And identifying in advance which changes are likely to be most effective is fraught with difficulty.
Any national effort to cut CO2 emissions will be a futile waste of time, if BP forecasts are correct.
The desire of people in poor countries to industrialise, and create economic opportunities for their children, is irrepressible.