Essay by Eric Worrall
According to “Energy Innovation” and Telos Energy, California can improve grid stability and hit green energy targets by shutting down most remaining fossil fuel capacity, and fully committing to a green energy grid.
California Can Reliably Hit 85% Clean Energy By 2030 Without Risking Outages – En Route To A 100% Clean Grid
Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology Contributor
We Are A Nonpartisan Climate Policy Think Tank Helping Policymakers Make Informed Energy Policy Choices And Accelerate Clean Energy By Supporting The Policies That Most Effectively Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
Eric Gimon Contributor Senior Fellow
Power crises during California’s August 2020 heat waves raised questions about how reliable the state’s grid will be on the road to its target of 100% clean energy by 2045.
But new research provides clear answers: California can reliably achieve an 85% clean electricity grid by 2030 with a diverse mix of renewables and batteries, flexible demand, trade with neighboring states, and some existing power plants—under multiple build-out assumptions and possible future conditions. It turns out a cleaner grid is a more reliable grid.
…
The technical report provides a novel methodology to help policymakers rapidly evaluate many future resource portfolios and assumptions to secure a future clean energy grid. By including scenarios and sensitivities that examine reliability using details like hourly wind and solar data matched to hourly demand data for eight possible years across the Western U.S., modelers can compare benefits of different resource portfolios relatively quickly and at low cost.
…
An equitable clean electricity transition depends upon investing in, and creating markets for economically viable clean energy portfolios that help retire natural gas units harming California’s most pollution-burdened communities. A just transition for impacted communities also includes increasing community resiliency, building clean resources with job and economic benefits, and using local consultation in selecting new investments.
The technical study’s multiple scenarios found that the state’s grid would be reliable even after retiring 11.5 gigawatts (GW), or about one third of California’s existing gas capacity. Though beyond the scope of the technical study, the companion policy report recommends prioritizing retiring gas plants located near or in disadvantaged communities no later than 2030, while zeroing out the state’s reliance on gas as soon as possible. Some agencies including the CPUC, have made some progress with inclusivity and environmental justice, but stalled efforts to retire gas show there’s more work yet to do.
…
Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2022/05/11/california-can-reliably-hit-85-clean-energy-by-2030-without-risking-outages–en-route-to-a-100-clean-grid/
The full report is available here – and – big surprise – it contains a bunch of weasel words.
“… There is a continued need for gas generation or economic imports to serve load from the summer through to winter. …”.
… While the study suggests a 85% clean electricity target can be reliable, further work should explore the impacts of transmission congestion through nodal analysis, and the impacts of inverter based resources on grid stability. …
What can I say. California seems utterly determined to be the next pauper state.
We’ve all read histories of the fall of the Roman Empire, Imperial China, or other great powers, and marvelled at the foolish decisions which led to collapse, but one thing which isn’t always clear from just reading the books is the momentum behind such foolishness, the depth, the sheer dogged determination of large groups of people to act against their own national interest. It is not just the leaders of failing states who make bad decisions, it is their entire support network, a juggernaut of arrogance and delusion, which leads to the ultimate downfall.
I think it is worth continuing to try. Sometimes nations on the brink make the right decisions, and pull back from disaster. Sometimes the emperor realises he has no clothes.
But anyone with an ounce of engineering talent can see where California’s ruinous policies could lead, the human tragedy in the making, how close California and other green states are to losing all the security and comfort their parents and grandparents worked their butts off to provide.
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Unreliable energy of wind and solar is a setback for humanity 🙁
low density sources do that.
Density: solar < wind < wood/biofuel < hydropower < gas, oil, coal < nuclear.
The Green blight.
Want to bet this considers the Los Angeles DWP owned coal plants in AZ & NV to be the mysterious “economic imports to serve load” as not counting?
Shared/shifted responsibility.
Eighty Five Percent of how much though?
Usually the calculation is nameplate capacity, capacity factor conveniently ignored for promotional purposes.
So 85 per cent maybe 25 per cent achievable?
Whatever is net of them cutting off consumers to ration shortages. You know, Demand Side Management. A feature of Leftist and socialist systems.
They will easily achieve their goals because 85% of the current population will have moved to another state.
OK, California is a great state, the only problem is that it is infested with Californians (Willis excepted). So, if 15% of Californians die from cold, and 85% flee the state, California will be great again (in this scenario Willis can be Governor).
Anthony, too. (That I know of.)
I’m not so sure Anthony is still a resident of Kalifornia, is he?
Texas has an unreliable grid with some thirty percent wind. Just how many black or brownouts will they accept?
Apparently complete grid failure.
Texans love to bitch and moan, but reluctant to act.
I moved out of ERCOT and into SPP region because the GOP led state wanted to virtue signal so much that they kneecapped Texas. Then Bush, Perry and Abbott seemed hell bent to import as many Californians in to add to the energy burden.
Its purely political. Big Tech wanted the grift and the green credits so they bribed and built up massive wind farms. The pols wanted to scoop up that Big Tech bounty, and here we are.
there is no Virtue Signaling. Its call Profit Taking. When the idiots in Congress decided to dump billions into unreliable energy, businessmen signed up for the free cash. Famous quote from Warren Buffett: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2020/02/11/warren-buffett-has-started-the-biggest-energy-revolution/?sh=72b25fd04494
The Forbes link reads like a commercial for solar farms; chock full of misleading statements [solar is cheaper than FF, and grid scale batteries cost $13/MWh] plus come-ons for certain solar stocks. Nonsense.
Forbes is being sold to the Chinese. You know, the guys that sell us solar panels, lithium batteries, etc, etc, etc………………….
California will run out of power and water for most of its inmates, um citizens. And the political leaders will increase their salary.
what kind of fool notion is Eric Gimon pushing? does he think we are the fools?
Already this month we in CA have been told to prepare for electricity shortages this summer, and every day on television & radio they run PSA ads telling us to not use electric power after sunset, to use power only when renewable energy is highest – i.e. don’t work unless the sun is shining
So much for the lights after dark.
Q: what did CA use for light before candles?
A: electricity.
That’s called “demand management” – it’s how the renewable grid can be more reliable.
The black outs will be planned, you see, so doesn’t count as being unreliable.
“trade with neighboring states,”
Do these people learn NOTHING from history? Even recent history? Texas found out during its freeze that other regions had nothing to spare for TX even if the power could be transferred!
Why does CA and these think tank people think other states are going to overbuild their generation infrastructure in order to have spare to send to CA?
CA and these think tank people want the taxpayers in other states to subsidize their ridiculous memes. And ridiculous they are!
Yes, but in the later 90s when Calufornia faced an energy crisis, President Bill Joe Jim Bob Clinton went to Bonneville Power and said, “Thou shalt sell electricity through the intertie to California”. BPA then had to by back electricity from the aluminum plants in Oregon and Washington in order to sell it to California at some outrageous price.
Only works if there is power to put into the intertie. When Oregon, Washington, Nevade, etc have no excess power I’m pretty sure the governors of those states will tell CA to go fish!
“Can’t fish in dry reservoirs”, says California.
“You should have thought of that as well,” says Oregon and Washington.
They get summer electricity from ‘excess’ NW hydro.
If NW states have to get to the stated 50% or 100% or whatever goal, then there will be no excess for California.
The think tank folks need to think about that.
If they did they wouldn’t get paid by the Leftist governments.
They will ( for the right price) $1/kwh anyone?
There should not be one single electron worth of power provided from other states to help bailout failing California from their self imposed madness.. Not one single electron!!
A lot of that “neighboring states” power would have to come over the mountains and through the forests, and we all know how well high voltage lines do in dry forested areas if there is any breeze at all.
Luckily we don’t have drought conditions to worry about while doing that. Oh, wait…
From the narrative it is obvious think tanks are useless.
This thinktank, anyway. Pie in the Sky.
Anyone else see the sleight-of-hand being played by Mr.Eric Gimon, Contributor Senior Fellow at Energy Innovation (in their own words, a policy think tank, imagine that!) in his statement quoted in the above article:
” California can reliably achieve an 85% clean electricity grid by 2030 with a diverse mix of renewables and batteries, flexible demand, trade with . . .”
I still laugh out loud considering that the “diverse mix” unashamedly includes “flexible demand” . . . as in, when it turns out in 2030 that California has only have achieved, say, 18% clean electricity—nowhere near the pie-in-the-sky 85% reliably predicted just 8 years earlier—the “flexible demand” will likely be achieved via by a surcharge of, oh, about $100 per kWh for any residence consuming more than the State-rationed, limited amount of electricity that will be available then.
Bottom line: c’mon, you really expect a “think tank” to have any appreciation of reality?
Flexible demand can also be achieved by rolling blackouts. Just not VOLUNTARY flexible demand.
Voluntary participation in demand management schemes will collapse into mandatory participation when regular curtailments begin to impact comfort, safety and economics for consumers, Rud.
Flexible demand more likely means smart meters that will allow the utility to limit or turn off your power usage during shortages.
They’ll meet their goals of providing for 85% of demand by forcibly reducing demand to meet the generating capacity.
The reality will be lots of sitting in the dark, no AC, and freezers that had better hold their cold when the power is off.
The rich, including Gavin Noisome, will not suffer the deprivations.
Of course. Because the rich can all afford to buy 25+ horsepower gasoline powered alternators. But the poor can’t and won’t be able to because Gavin Newsom, by executive decree, outlawed all gasoline engines under 25 HP starting in 2025.
Except that Newsom has banned small gas and diesel generators.
Unless it is powered by nat gas coming in through a pipeline, or a huge tank of propane stored on property, a generator will not do a person much for very long, unless they can survive on low power usage and readily get many cans of gasoline every day.
25 HP is over 18 kilowatts.
A 10 Kilowatt generator uses about 10 gallons a day at 50% of capacity.
So a 16KW one running on gasoline and using a large proportion of those watts will need a lot of gasoline.
I can tell you, it is hard to manage even a smaller generator when power runs out.
Many gas stations will not be open.
They will be running out of gas, there will be lines, and a person will be using gas to go get gas when it is not for sure it is available.
And it will get expensive very quickly.
But any generator will cost far more to run that we are used to paying for power coming in through the mains.
Propane is much better.
Using standard industry calculations for an average user…
A 100 gallon tank will run a whole home generator for a day or two.
A 500 gallon tank will last a home for 7-10 days.
1000 gallons will last 14 to 21 days.
Check cost for a fillup of a 1000 gallon tank.
Where I live, you can get the tank installed for free, but only if at last some of the appliances in your home are running on gas.
IOW, propane suppliers will not underwrite the cost of a tank if you only use it for back up power.
But they will if you have gas water heating, clothes drying, cooking, heating…one or more at least.
Of course, one can always use more or less power in a given situation depending on conditions, the reason for the power outage, and the expectation of getting a delivery when needed.
If it is after a hurricane and power is out over a wide area because of wrecked power infrastructure, it may be a month before power is restored to a particular home, and a propane delivery during these times is iffy or out of the question over the time scale of a week or two.
Someone in a huge rich person mansion will find out very quickly that a generator with even a huge 1000 gallon tank will not allow a person accustomed to living without regard to power usage is going to quickly be useless.
All the money in the world will not let someone get a propane delivery whenever they need one, when everyone wants as much as they can get over a wide area like a whole state.
Standard calculations do not apply when a home is many thousands of square feet, and there are pool pumps and such, several separate multi-ton AC units running, and all the rest of the power hungry devices and appliances a wealthy person uses every day.
Also such people may be poorly equipped to figure out how quickly they will run out, or how to turn off stuff even when they realize they need to.
Do you need hot water 24-7?
Do you need to wash all laundry as it collects?
Do you know how to close off AC vents to unused parts of the structure?
Do you know how to turn off pool pumps and automatic lights and whatnot?
The only people who do not have a precarious situation if backup generators are in use for more than a very short time, are people who have piped in natural gas.
I am of the opinion the US should have a nat gas pipeline buildout on the scale of the rural electrification act.
Everyone should be using nat gas for anything involving heat…hot water, clothes drying, cooking, home heating, etc.
And of course backup generators.
Then again, I also think it is stupid for people to have homes worth many hundreds of thousands, let alone over a million dollars, but have no sprinklers, no floor drains in every room on the ground floor, or to live in a place with high wildfire risk and not have a fireproof roof.
Even then, how much would it cost to put sprinklers on a roof?
Cross connected to the swimming pool if wildfires typically cause water supply to fail?
Very little compared to what is at stake.
Correction:
“A 10 Kilowatt generator uses about 10 gallons a day at 50% of capacity.”
I should have said it will use about 10 gallons in 10 hours at 1/2 load.
So at full load, maybe 2 gallons per hour?
So for a 24 hour day?
50 gallons of gasoline.
That is ten 5 gallons cans of gas.
And a whole home unit running at 18,000 watts (about 25 HP)?
Easy to see that even if one does not have to worry about the fact that gas is upwards of $4.50 a gallon, (and I think a lot more in California)
A gasoline powered generator is problematic under the best of circumstances.
And my (admittedly limited) personal experience is that when a backup generator is needed for more than a few hours (due to a small local outage caused by a car running into a power pole for instance), one can be fairly certain that circumstances are likely to be as far from ideal as can be imagined.
For anyone who has never been where power is out over a wide area for days and weeks on end, I can tell you, you cannot even imagine how fast everything falls apart.
Everything.
I even wonder how many of these people have ever spent a week or more at something like a Boy Scout camp where there is no air conditioning, no hot water heater, no running water at all, where the temp gets up to 90F during the day or below freezing at night, where all cooking is done over a campfire or firepit, no electric fans, no electric lights, no refrigerators, etc.
How many have eaten noodles, pancakes, beans, rice, tomatoes, potatoes, and other non-perishable food morning, noon, and night for a week.
My guess is that most of these people would pack up and move somewhere with reliable power after the first day!
Sounds like ‘An Official Feature’ to me.
Auto
How will they charge up all those electric cars they will be mandated to use?
Fortunately, pot grows easily in CA and they will be able to avoid attending to reality a bit longer.
“Unless it is powered by nat gas coming in through a pipeline, or a huge tank of propane stored on property, a generator will not . . .”
But isn’t the whole point of the above article that, largely by 2030 and absolutely by 2045, the State of California has decreed* that it will not have any natural gas or propane—indeed no fossil fuel of any kind—supplies or distribution infrastructure.
*very much along the line of Pharaoh’s (as played by Yul Brynner) statement in the movie The Ten Commandments:
“So let it be written, so let it be DONE!”
(see the video clip at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O8gTIr4lys . . . it is iconic!)
Or ironically, the state’s electric generation will rely more and more on generators.
Powered by fossil fuels of course.
Yes, if the ‘think tank’ is one whose foundation lies in logic and reason; for a ‘think tank’ whose raison d’etre is pimping worse-than-useless ‘renewable’ energy (i.e., wind and solar provided at the whims of the weather and requiring 100% backup if you don’t tolerate blackouts), not so much.
I’ve only contempt for The Late Great Golden State** until the towers and wires of the Pacific DC Intertie {Path 65} and the California Oregon Intertie (AC) {Path 66} are removed and the metals recycled. (Both originating near Celilo Falls OR/WA)
**song, Mike Stinson; also see Dwight Yoakam’s version
But, but this is what California wants, so let them do it.
That’s true. It’s also true that people are voting with their feet as California keeps losing large employers and population. 33% of all Californians receive welfare now, including forced subsidy of electric rates for low income including illegals. At some point they will run out of other peoples money.
“At some point they will run out of other peoples money.”
That always happens with socialists.
Given CA’s size and economic impact: “As California goes, the nation goes.” Look at their impact on vehicle standards nationwide.
G’Day Dave, and others
“ Look at their impact on vehicle standards nationwide.”
A couple of hours ago I glanced at a news article – about a number of State Attorneys General suing the Federal EPA for “Allowing California to set vehicle emission standards for the entire country.” I wish them luck.
RE: “…the human tragedy in the making, how close California and other green states are to losing all the security and comfort their parents and grandparents worked their butts off to provide.”
This is what troubles me most. The self reassuring stupidity of the unreliable energy supporters is destroying the low cost, reliable 24/7/365 energy delivery systems their ancestors worked so hard to build. Such selfish stupidity…..
Just like the UK and NY, we really need CA to follow this ‘advice’ and fail miserably. Only then can we skeptics hold the people spinning such obvious nonsense to account. The problem is, they think it isn’t nonsense—and have persuaded ‘know nothing’ politicians like BoJo and Newsom that they are correct.
Lets hope reality bites real hard real soon.
They’d not have been fooled into thinking it’s not nonsense if the APS and the AIP had provided an honest and critical appraisal of CO₂ alarm, Rud.
But they didn’t. They colluded. They’ve been thoroughly dishonest — I can’t believe their management is that incompetent. The result has been the worst scientific and social scandal ever.
It’s possible the Covid Nuremberg violation may grow past it. But apart from that.
Faling already in UK with more and more due to fall into fuel poverty this winter but the politicans sail glibly on without a care and a feeling that the ship of state is in safe hands. rampant inflation, destruction of our agriculture etc what can go wrong. Just massive famine and death .
That’s a feature, not a glitch. You will own nothing, and be happy.
It isn’t clear that the failures will make any difference. Consider the virus saga with its forceful denial of effective treatments and pretend voodoo mask charms.
Have we, the people, ever successfully held any politicians to account? At best they get voted out of office but that’s hardly sufficient for the damage they can inflict. Will Biden be “held to account”? Not likely.
See Sri Lanka. Seems to be the only answer.
“…trade with neighboring states…”
In other words, do what they’ve basically been doing for the last 20 years; shutting down their own fossil fuel generating capacity and outsourcing it from out of state when it gets too cold or too hot. Sort of how the US has already outsourced much of it’s high-carbon manufacturing to China.
That’s okay. My state makes energy and food. We’ll be happy to export our surplus to California at peak demand, and cost.
G’Day John,
“… outsourcing it from out of state …”
California ISO – Supply, Today’s Outlook
The last graph on the page is “Imports Trend” – it is not a negligible amount.
In a democracy voters have every right to chose failure over success if they wish. The fact so many Californians are voting that way is sad, but not nearly as concerning as if really productive, and intellectually honest people did the same. Let them vote for a new dark ages if they wish and begin to live the “rustic life” of poverty. The smart and productive ones can move to states where common sense is considered more important than posturing and celebrity.
The US is not a democracy. Neither is California. They’re constitutional republics.
True, not a “direct democracy” but for many constitutional scholars (which I am clearly not) a “representative democracy.” My point was that the right to either vote for policies (e.g. by plebescite), or vote for representatives who create policy – voters can choose their fate rightly or wrongly.
It was supposed to be a government of limited powers.
And CA, through its initiatives process actually has a considerable direct democracy process
The problem with that is that in all likelihood the rest of us will share the cost of their failure since CA will be deemed “too big to fail”.
Suppose to be anyway.
And which states are those?
Florida for one.
California is not isolated from the rest of the country. Their idiocy in this matter will affect the rest of us in countless ways—especially fresh foods.
Great time for people who have not done in a while to start a garden.
Don’t forget to get canning supplies!
Not to mention the range of choice for non-useless vehicles.
smart enough but too poor is very common = no good choice.
I’m sorry, but every time I read “…a novel methodology…“, I read that as a new way to produce numbers and statistics that we want.
Since early 2020, the word ‘novel’ means something bad, for non-Latin speakers. It reminds of novel virus.
California imported more electricity than any other state and typically receives between one-fifth and one-third of its electricity supply from outside of the state (eia)
The only way the “85%” can be done is by drastically increasing imports, if that were even possible.
All the leaves are brown (all the leaves are brown) And the sky is gray (and the sky is gray) I’ve been for a walk (I’ve been for a walk) On a winter’s day (on a winter’s day) I’d be safe and warm (I’d be safe and warm) If I was in L.A. (if I was in L.A.) California dreamin’ (California dreamin’) ….
Right, 85% renewable. The missing15% is when it’s dark and/or not windy (or too windy).
Bring it on. After all, it’s best if one place tries it out first, rather than the whole world plunging together into uncharted territory. (Although it does appear that the global plunge is well underway).
Maybe one little idea that slipped into the plan needs more explaination: “flexible demand”. It looks like this means that demand has to flex according to electricity availability. Apart from the fact that this gets electricity supply backwards (the whole point of having an electricity supply in the first place is for it to meet electricity demand), it also means that CA will easily be able to report that it successfully met all demand. In other words, if you always force demand to be no more than the supply at any particular point in time, then supply always meets demand – even if you have to force demand to be zero every night when the sun goes in.
Yes, bring it on, until CAians wake up to the fact that they are the losers in the exercise. Then maybe the rest of the world can come to its senses too. I wish.
Putin has been an abomination for Ukrainians, but has educated Western Europe on their Green folly.
Within a very few years, Californians will be awaking from their wokeness on Greenism, along with homelessness, crime, paying people not to work, and so on.
We have a similar experiment with a slightly different Progressive project going on right now in Sri Lanka, where they have gone completely “organic” by decree. Food production has dropped, as has tea production( their main export crop), there are riots and the PM who issued the organic decree has resigned, while mobs have burned down some of his family’s homes.
We have not reached this stage, yet…
One narrative is that, as California becomes stupider, it’s created an exodus to other states to escape the stupidity.
Another narrative insists that there is no California exodus.
The truth seems to be interesting. link The number of Californians leaving hasn’t increased that much but the number of people replacing them from other states has decreased markedly.
So, why don’t people want to immigrate to California? Do people see less opportunity? That would say a lot about the economy.
Richard Florida has pointed out that the young creative class can have a big effect on a region’s economy by choosing to live there or not. It’s something like a well paying high tech business in Pittsburgh can’t get the employees it needs because they’d rather be baristas in Houston. That causes the business to move to where its employees are rather than vice versa. Something like that.
Texas vs. California is complicated. As far as I can tell, Texas is on the way up and California is on the way down.
When I was a pup, there was a huge migration of high tech businesses from the east to California, mainly because of labor laws. Then things changed and it’s been down hill ever since.
I hope Cali goes for it. I’d love to move back one day and purchase a house for normal prices.
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I don’t see why not, so long as 70% of the population leaves California by then.
I have been calling California the ‘no’ state since my first visit back since retiring. There is an abundance of signs stating no this and that.
Add no electricity!
While I did not see any signs posted, there must be a lot that say ‘not here put them in Washington State’.
The report show a map with 3 offshore wind farms and discusses 4 MW of offshore wind.
I checked. There are 6 offshore wind turbines in the US on the east coast.
The map does not show any wind farms on land within 100 miles of the Pacific coast.
The reason Califonia is not a leader in producing electricity with wind is the people do not want it and it is easier to put it in other states.
“…. on land within 100 miles of the Pacific coast.”
I wrote a post in Nov 2018 about the wind facilities near the Columbia River of OR & WA.
They start at about 125 miles from the Pacific and extend east 100+ miles.
When the Wind Doesn’t Blow – Watts Up With That?
Also see my comment above at 2:35 pm. The interties predate the wind towers.
English is such a wonderful language.
I just had a mental image of a pack of predatory interties hunting for wind towers.
OMG! i read the whole verbose farago The intellectual garbage of it comes where they consider storage as key enabler and wiffle on about storage capacity measured in GW.
It just does not occur to these nitwits that GW are not energy units, and they make no case for how many GWhr of storage are needed or at what cost.
All in all this report is a fine addition to your environmental justice library, and compostible
“Flexible demand”
Sure, our grid here in CA is stable as can be if you can turn off parts of the load as you desire! Thank you, smart power meters allowing SCE to turn off homes as needed, to keep the grid alive!