From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Get the popcorn out!
A rare clash has emerged between the two ‘big boys’ of UK weather forecasting after they made hugely different long-term predictions for the winter ahead.
Britain’s two biggest forecasters have predicted polar opposites for this winter.
The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild few months ahead but the BBC, which gets its information from DTN, warned of a deep freeze.
Experts say energy and road transport firms, airlines and supermarkets will all be hit by the uncertainty.
John Hammond, a former weatherman at both the BBC and Met Office, said: “It’s meteorological mayhem with huge disagreement on what happens in the months ahead. They are starkly different forecasts and can’t both be right.
“There are huge implications for customers such as Government, the energy sector, media and a wide range of other industries.
“Back-pedalling will be required by one of the big boys. Who will blink first?”
The Met Office says: “A mild three-month period is more likely than a cold one.
“Consistent with a warming climate, there is a reduction in the chance of cold.”
But the BBC’s forecaster DTN says: “This winter is likely to feature a weak polar vortex, bringing increased cold risks from Arctic air masses later in the season. January and February could feature frigid air, similar to last year.”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/bbc-met-office-war-over-25513792
Consistent with the warming climate lie.
Oh hell, the greens attributed the freeze last February in Texas to global warming.
Keep up Tom.
That freeze has since been adjusted to a heatwave.
Everybody calls griff a Bolshevik moron who hopes for the ultimate destruction of Western Civilization and the death of puppies. (Let’s see if griff agrees) 😜
And they were right to do so
Griffo, how about doing some of your own homework yourself rather than cribbing from others, who often get it wrong.
It may be too early to say, but it may turn out both are equally wrong and we end with an average winter
Polar vortex has not yet fully developed and the stratospheric temperature is slightly below normal.
For cold winter we need sudden SF warming, and there is no sign of it.
Late last December there was explosive Kamchatka eruption causing January’s spike in SSW, which split up vortex (if you are keen enough you can look at my post on the WWT, and you we will see I did predicted cold spell about two weeks before it started)
There was recent Kamchatka eruption around 4 Nov, but that is far too early to do much, if one does occur in late December or early January and is explosive (hot plume 8km + altitude) than you are in business for talking cold winter, else average or mild.
My hypotheses has been posted here number of times so I shall leave it to you to search the WWT for it ( use key words vuk, Kamchatka).
I hope for a unusually mild winter.
Happy Thanksgiving to all. Vuk
See my comments starting at January 18, 2021 6:10 am
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/18/the-stratosphere-has-warmed-profoundly-this-month-what-are-the-implications/#comment-3164797
and
November 11, 2021 10:01 am
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/11/11/alaska-students-research-upends-understanding-of-upper-atmospheric-wind/
Often? Always, despite the kindly mentoring griff receives here…
Telling lies is now the right thing to do?
The left thinks lying is the right thing to do because in they think they are the side of good intentions. What’s a little lie if it will end up helping more people in the end?
Virtue signals are not lies, they are sincere indications of lies. If one is going to lie, might as well be sincere about it.
So Griff, what common/unusual/extreme weather event would it not be right to attribute to global warming?
None of them. Even when the actual outcome is completely the opposite of what was predicted, it is still proof of global warning.
Your namby pamby Enlightenment Science is dead.
All the funksters know that science is based on feelings. Black can be white, if you just feel it strongly enough.
Consistent with the UK’s warming climate: UK winters are now mild, except when a weakening polar vortex brings down an arm of intense polar cold.
so in a sense they are both right.
Here it is end of November: no frost here yet, green leaves on some trees and the odd flower still out.
Griff
Here in Kent we have had frosts.
Funny how the main effect of global warming is mild winters.
And yet it is still an existential crisis,
There was frost on the ground next to the train tracks between Liverpool and Manchester on Monday.
Say it ain’t so!!! Ground frost at the end of November, good grief….we’re doomed I tell you….doomed!!!
Grab your parka and head south!!
And in Suffolk!
Frost on the car every morning for the last 5 days in Falkirk.
You, and Dog, and Pretty are cherry picking!
Can’t you see, as griff so generously has explained to us ignorants, that you are looking at the “exceptions”? Yes, those exceptional places where the “arm” of the polar vortex is… you are just seeing an arm, you are not seeing the bulk, the boby, the essential core of the warming (worming?) phenomenon!…
These are fingers of polar vortex!
As we all know, arms have fingers.
Frost these past few days in North Cornwall.
No, really??!!
Grass frost here this morning in Edinburgh with a 10 mph northwest wind. The combination of wind and radiation frost (not in a local frost hollow) does not bode well for the coming winter.
Unbelievable that frost on the grass in Scotland at the end of November (who would have thought it!!!) can be seen as a harbinger for a cold winter! Very very silly….
Pretty dull are you, Phil? These comments about frosts are in contradiction to the grifftard’s claim that there haven’t been a normal number of frosts this year.
Griff,
I am not sure which UK you are living in, but we have had frosts in central southern England since the beginning of November. The past week has had a series of quite severe frosts.
North Lincolnshire … and just one ground frost here.
Ad no – visible hoar frost is not a measure of severity.
It is a measure of moisture.
There has been nothing but slight frosts away from Scotand.
West coast Scotland facing Gulf Stream and 4 frosts including last night.
If there is not a wind blowing off the Atlantic, with a clear sky and calm conditions, frost in Western Scotland in late November is absolutely normal….not at all newsworthy!
Griff lives in that alternative UK, you know, the one in the other Universe!!!
Yep, the one that enjoys a Mediterranean climate….
Where Vikings still raise crops in Greenland.
I thought we were supposed to start enjoying Australian style weather in the UK by now as promised by the eco-bunnies back in the late 1980s…….still waiting!!!
Yes, well here in SE Oz the average high for November is 2.3C below long-term. We have also had 16 days of rain for a total of 259.8mm. Hardly the sort of late Spring we want, but consequent to a confluence of La Nina, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Meanwhile, there is a solar minimum coming in, with its attendant ‘weak and wavy’ jet-streams.
I am curious why nobody in these comments sees fit to mention it.
His response will be:
No frost in downtown London, so no frost anywhere in the UK. It’s unpossible as the models say we should have frost because Global Warming and London’s frost-free downtown proves it.
Im starting to think Griff lives in the part of UK known as Bermuda
He almost certainly lives in a big town or city and his ‘observations’ are completely skewed by UHI.
Don’t forget the basement where it resides.
Griff is living in the “hotter and hotter” UK.
I know where he lives: in a UK modelled by a computer program.
Griff’s remark reveals typical confirmation bias while the ‘BBC vs Met Office’ disagreement just demonstrates the inevitable uncertainty associated with both weather and climate. Consensus, eh?!
We, too, have already had a number of frosts in the West Midlands. Funnily enough, I remember winters decades ago that were remarkably similar to what we’re experiencing now — and I believe that’s what the UK temperature data reveals.
Why should anyone be remotely surprised by any of this.
Frost in the West Midlands should be expected anytime after mid September and certainly in October. I can’t believe all this commentary about frost in late November!
Charitably we can assume that you missed the bizarre claim by griff and echoed by A. Banton, but I doubt it.
Are the BBC and The Net Office “predicting” the winter weather, or “projecting”? Also, do they use computer programs to come up with these results?
You’ve just described the pattern for winters in the UK for the 60+ years that I’ve been alive, mostly mild with occasional cold ones.
What’s your definition of ‘mild’?
Griff is a post modernist at heart. The definition of mild changes constantly so that word can be used in pretty much any way.
“I took my mild for a walk yesterday.”
Frost here in the northwest, mate.
Which part of the UK are you, British Virgin Islands?
Disconcertingly early frost here in Cornwall for two mornings in a row.
First frost is typically driven by nighttime temps, not by daytime temps. I know you wont understand it but daytime temps are driven by season, i.e. the Earth’s tilt while nighttime temps are driven by weather. What you have described is actually nighttime temps being higher while daytime temps are normal.
You can call this global warming if you want but it is the most beneficial kind of global warming you can have. It’s GOOD warming, not bad warming.
Griff is a nutter.
Uk winters are always mild, but one flake of snow and the UK grinds to a halt, with a vicious “winter freeze”.
He always seems to come up with this “draughty damp, insignificant island on the edge of the Atlantic = global climate” especially as when he was in pampers when we had the last cold ones in 1984 and 2010.
Basically a total plonker!
I object. That’s a totally unsupported assertion. You have no evidence at all that griff isn’t still in pampers.
You’ve forgotten the cold one in early 2013. Didn’t warm up until May. That was a bad one that was.
And people say declining CONUS temperatures are not reflective of the globe. Those pesky U.S. extensive monitoring sites with well-maintained instruments don’t mean anything. Also, averaging in amplified Arctic temperatures with the global temperatures has nothing to do with it.
That’s funny. It’s warm except when it’s cold.
What warming climate? Just because the models say it should be happening is not evidence that it is happening.
Frost here! In the Midlands. Most leaves off the trees.
No frosts yet? I don’t know where you live, griff, but we’ve had heavy frosts here in Hertfordshire on recent mornings…
UK winters are now mild except when they are not. Sounds like the perfect definition of a blind man describing an elephant.
Also with the Met Office having informed Boris et al that this winter was/is going to be ‘mild’ and thus no need to panic about (natural) gas prices and thereafter electricity prices, motor fuel costs and thus Inflation & Interest Rates.
Thus everyone would have plenty ££££ to pay all BoJo’s new taxes
Yeah right. Every evening this week around 18:00 GMT I check around EnergyNumbers and Gridwatch – we’re running at 42 or 43GW
We are burning 20GW+ of that expensive gas, 2.5GW coal, pathetic wind, zero solar and sucking Europe dry with the same vigour as Dinorwig is drained every evening
And nightime temps are not even going below zero
While my energy supplier (EON) casually emailed last week to say they’d be deducting 50% more every month from my bank account, for no extra juice.
La Nina is locked-in – very cold (globally) in ~4 months from ~Oct 1, 2021.
Major deviations of the Polar Vortex starting anytime. Where – is the question.
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/
[excerpts]
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
5. UAH LT Global Temperatures can be predicted ~4 months in the future with just two parameters:
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth (Figs. 5a and 5b)
6. The sequence is Nino34 Area SST warms, seawater evaporates, Tropical atmospheric humidity increases, Tropical atmospheric temperature warms, Global atmospheric temperature warms, atmospheric CO2 increases (Figs.6a and 6b).
The ‘big boys’…
At least for once. One of them will be right lol.
Well actually no, they’re still both probably wrong, as per usual.
Hmm yeah. I think both predictions might have something, but when you average things out, you tend to lose the detail. I think we are likely to see a changeable winter with both cold blasts and milder periods, but overall temperatures lower than in previous years. We rarely get the same type of weather lasting from December right through to February anyway, so we’ll just have to see what comes.
They can be wrong for the right reasons and right for the wrong reasons. For example: we can indeed have a SSW event with cold being pushed south, but we all know that cold moving south means warmth moving north. For the Europe region it is best to refrain from season forecast unless you want to look like a fool.
obviously the met office is looking to Boris for some more money and the BBC is ensuring that the public are happy – if no cold spell ok if cold spell ok
The BBC is providing clickbait headlines for their target audience. The Met Office is just doing what they always do.
“Trust the science.”
“Which one?”
The settled one? Or is that two?
They can’t agree on the next 3 months, but the next 50 years is “settled science™”.
Let’s face it they can’t agree on tomorrow’s weather.
And, even when they agree, they are typically wrong.
Same as it acre was. When I lived there as a kid growing up (allegedly), the joke was that if you didn’t like the weather forecast on the BBC, switch channels to ITV for theirs.
ever
How do I turn off my f-wit spellchecker on my new computer ????
It is refreshing to see an open difference of opinion rather than a false consensus among the warmistas.
They need to take note of what the guru of forecasting Yogi Berra observed –
“predictions are tricky, especially about the future”
“When you come to a fork in the road take it” was Yogi Berra’s advice.
Ain’t it great living in a world where the science is settled – even if the weather isn’t?
It’s wonderful – when the nitwits are competing in lying the hardest in an elitist wannabe contest
In the UK (afaik) there’s payment to be made to the certain categorie of people if temperature drops below set limit for a number of days.
What happens is important not only to people who qualify and the government treasury, but to the rest of us considering possible energy supply shortages and the recent increase in the cost of heating which will be around for some time to come.
It looks like the Met Office is getting this one wrong
Will they change the facts as they did in the summer?
Quite probably
“It looks like the Met Office is getting this one wrong”
And what evidence do you have that the next 3 months will favour one or the other long-range prediction?
Given that you (presumably) don’t have knowledge of the future.
Also tell me in a situation where a coin is flipped – how does it “look like” it will fall as heads as apposed to tails?
Facts are, that this winter has some drivers in place to give Europe a cold first part of the winter.
Prime one being a developing La Nina.
La Nina winters predispose a mild second part.
It’s to do with the set of of planetary waves that change as the Polar vortex strengthens through December.
That leaves 2 of the 3 months mild in La Nina winters.
Countering that we have an easterly QBO which makes a SSW more likely.
And a SSW brings around a 60% chance of a cold outbreak to Europe.
Also Solar is quite low and so the the stratospheric PV is slightly less intense (a few m/s).
Then we have the phasing in of the MJO, which is an unknown quantity.
Also the UKMO has vastly more resources and experts than Meteogroup (now DTN). For instance they use the UKMO’s models.
ASFAIK they do not have modelling resources.
As in a multimillion pound supercomputer and data collection.
The real truth is that a winter forecast has so much chaos involved in it’s determination that the prospect of getting a correct forecast (for the right reasons), is barely better than 50%.
Yet “it looks like the Met O is getting this one wrong” does it.
Just another of the usual denizens’ reasoning that a forecast is wrong before it even starts.
Also what “facts” did they change in the Summer?
Calm down, dear
You’ll see I’m right in the fullness of time
They changed the fact during the summer…,
“They changed the fact during the summer…,”
So you say.
I’m asking what “facts”.
“You’ll see I’m right in the fullness of time”
Again, where do you get your clairvoyance from?
Are you psychic?
If not – please tell me where I can get it from.
BTW: I actually hope the MO is wrong as I love frosty/snowy weather.
I know it’s difficult/impossible but try to realise that the MO is making a forecast and not a political statement.
Also when all else is contradictory they can can only revert to climatology.
What facts? Which part of the UK do you inhabit?
Lets jog your memory. It was a cool and markedly wet summer – in two words really disappointing. You didn’t notice that?
The MO said it was around 1°C warmer than average for the UK, which would potentially place it within the top ten warmest summers on record. And that is utter rubbish – on a par with their famous BBQ summer and ‘there isn’t a hurricane coming, don’t worry’
“Are you psychic?”
The MO seems to think it is.
Not to mention the Met Office predicted a heatwave ‘within the next two weeks’ from May through to September without ever having one materialise. I think that goes way beyond just being an incorrect forecast.
Anthony Banton,
You say,
“Also when all else is contradictory they can can only revert to climatology.”
How?
Do you mean ‘revert to historically average values’? If you do then please remember that weather is rarely the same as its climate average for the day, for the week, for the month, or for the season.
I know alarmists think AGW is a political issue divorced from empirical reality, but you really should learn from the “Brexit means Brexit” nonsense and what resulted from it because REALITY DOES MATTER.
Richard
“The real truth is that a winter forecast has so much chaos involved in it’s determination that the prospect of getting a correct forecast (for the right reasons), is barely better than 50%.”
These temps have a big impact on annual temps. If they can’t forecast winter temps 3 months ahead then how do they forecast annual temps for the next 80 years?
Yes, as I was reading Anthony’s comment, I too was thinking-
well, if wait to see what happens in 3 months is an appropriate response, surely that same approach is appropriate for 30 years.
“Given that you (presumably) don’t have knowledge of the future.”
Funnily enough, neither does the Met Office, nor the BBC.
Banton and his all trix Met office got the forecast 100% wrong 100% of the time for 5 years.
What’s new??
Coming up with yet more BS to cover up the rewards for failure?
Bantam Weight, in areas with variable weather, (not, for example, the Atacama desert) weather forecasting models typically show some skill out to 5 days but decline to no better than random chance in about 10 days. That’s why most weather models trend back to historical norms in the period beyond 5 to 7 days – they can’t predict the weather that far out from the current conditions. Weather is chaotic, anyone who claims that their model can reliably predict differences from the norm beyond 10 days is either a charlatan or a fool. Which one are you?
He’s made a living out of it and now he’s on a crusade
Models are not data and having more money to waste doesn’t make smarter.
Well it’s quite clear that the met office.is wrong.
It needs to be cancelled immediately.
Can you please tell us why it is “clear that the met office is wrong.”?
When the seasonal winter forecast is for Dec/Jan/Feb.
Unless I missed something the current date is 25th Nov.
Have they put you in as first batsman?
“Have they put you in as first batsman?”
-1
Well…..
That might be a whole new game, but I would change it a little bit. Sparko would be the opening bat, Anthony Banton would be the opposing fast bowler! Not sure exactly how to score it, but still.
Banton does a googly?
Don’t rule out a chinaman ……..
Forgive me, but The BBC always has the correct opinion, therefore the Met office by definition, must be wrong. and you do know fake information must be censored, thus the Met office must be consigned to the dustbin.
It’s the correct thing to do !.
With your bollox it sounds more like 1st april!
Who is “us”?
So what did the Met office and DTN predict last year and which was right? If the Met office said warm and it was cold then I wouldn’t trust them again. If they said cold and were right then then the prediction is less likely to be global warming ideology.
“If the Met office said warm and it was cold then I wouldn’t trust them again. ”
You do understand the concept of “forecasting” …. anything?
Forecasts are not written on ‘tablets of stone’ you know.
Otherwise that would be prescience.
And to ‘cancel’ someone on the basis of not being 100% correct all the time (it’s their job to issue continuously forecasts) would mean that we would never get anywhere.
Are you/is anyone 100% correct about future expectations?
Of course not.
But then that’s denizens.
They need 100% surity.
And yet you are sure they are correct about CO2 causing catastrophic warming 50 – 100 years in the future? It should tell you that NO ONE has a handle on how the climate works. Let’s see what did you even say?
Doesn’t that make you blink when you turn around and say they can accurately forecast what will happen in 50 – 100 years.
“Doesn’t that make you blink when you turn around and say they can accurately forecast what will happen in 50 – 100 years.”
No, because a seasonal forecast is entirely different. (See below links)
It attempts to take the current state of the atmosphere and integrate expected atmospheric drivers through the season.
SSTs being the most important – especially LN and EN.
Whereas a GCM integrates forward the Earth’s response to a steadily increasing river (GHGs).
It is essentially a globally averaged mean temp that NV rides along on. So despite the ups/downs involved there will be an overlying warming.
The uncertainty is in how much NOT the direction of travel.
And yes, as a retired met man I carry no torch for a winter forecast in its second half, as a major disruption in planetary waves which would be caused by a SSW, is just not predictable that far out. In fact the tropospheric response to one may take as much as 6 weeks to occur after the strat PV has split/stretched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B4DjkmbBZ8
Long term forecasts are nothing but an iteration of seasonal forecasts, winter, spring, summer, and fall. Year after year after year.
If you can’t get near-future forecasts of seasonal temps correct then there is no chance of getting far-future forecasts correct.
Uh, what rocks, avalanches and waterfalls might disrupt this CO2 river? One needs to understand the entire system to make valid predictions. The simple lack of a tropospheric Hot Spot indicates that the modelers have an incomplete understanding of all climatic drivers.
It really doesn’t matter if it is a “globally averaged temp” or a regional temp forecast. You used the word chaos and it applies to both. The models can’t forecast either even 12 months ahead accurately so the uncertainty will build with each annual iteration they go through in a model run. What a joke!
Until you can prove with real physical measurements and not simple correlation that CO2 is THE CONTROL KNOB for temperature then you have no physical proof of the GHG theory.
Oh for goodness sake, stop being so patronising.
It’s what he does…
Ditto
I’m not apologising for my knowledge on this subject.
And I do know that is seen as “patronising”.
Whatever … you’re welcome!
It’s just possible you might have learned something – which only happens if a few peeps can be bothered to counter the **** on here.
Alternately you can continue to have yer bias confirmed.
I really dont care either way.
Yes, you have knowledge but no understanding, and that’s what’s making you patronising and defensive
But you keep posting, so clearly you do care. Thank you for your concern.
Good on you Anthony! All the “excitement” being generated by frost in late November is testimony to the monumental level of ignorance and lack of historical understanding of UK climate. It’s time to really question what’s going on if the UK (especially the North) hasn’t had frost by the beginning of November, never mind the end!
The discussion of frost in November came about because Griff claimed there had been no frost, and that it was confirmation of a change in climate. Your posts on the subject reveal illiteracy, ignorance, and a haste for projection. A trifecta that even Griff doesn’t usually manage all at once.
Your “knowledge” is obviously based in academia and has little to no experience in the real world building things that actually work safely. Your insistence that no one has the level of knowledge that you do is a dead giveaway. There are people on this site who have dealt with these issues far longer and in much more detail than you. You should listen to them.
Yes! I predict that the UK will experience Winter-like conditions. Should I turn out to be wrong, then I would say that we have actually got some serious problems.
However, considering that some places in the UK are already experiencing frosts, and that world-wide volcanic-induced cooling is more probable than sudden heating, I think my prediction is pretty safe.
“However, considering that some places in the UK are already experiencing frosts, and that world-wide volcanic-induced cooling is more probable than sudden heating, I think my prediction is pretty safe.”
Frosts occur at anytime from late September in the UK and mid-November is most certainly going to see frosts occur … even in relative mild overall conditions.
“already experiencing frosts” …..in late November! My word, that’s really something isn’t it..??!! So much silliness on here….
Winter officially begins December 21st. In case you didn’t notice, my remarks to Banton were tongue in cheek.
It looks like my prediction has been confirmed:
https://news.yahoo.com/storm-arwen-turns-deadly-uk-193727344.html
Who is this “we’ you keep referring to? And why are they trying to “get” anywhere?
Frankly, 3 month forecasts of this kind are little more than gazing into a crystal ball. Nothing surprises me about UK winters since they are so hugely variable. Wet/dry, mild/cold: all is possible, in any combination.
♫ Clowns to the left of me…
♫ Jokers to the right….
♫ Here I am stuck in the middle with Bojo
BBC News: “UK government sets aside £1.7bn to support Bulb customers”
<Wonders if they’ll follow the Japanese lead and subside petrol>
Heh, reaching back into history now – would that be Tulip bulbs by any chance?
Wasn’t it California that capped retail rates and allowed wholesale supply costs to increase for its regulated utilities, leading up to the 2000 electric supply collapse and bankruptcy of said utilities. I’m happy to see the UK hasn’t learned anything about economics over the past years. It reinforces my trust in politicians and the Deep State.
They ‘can’t both be right’. No, really?
Actually that is quite possible, but not exactly at the same time. We’re talking about 3 months of weather here and, y’know, weather can change….
👍 Oh yeah, Richard. If it’s mild for a bit and then freezin’ @$$ cold for a bit, the BBC and the Met Office will both loudly proclaim victory.
BBC: “Nailed it!”
Met Office: “Nailed it!”
😜
There, you see? Climastrology is easy once you get the hang of it!
Richard Page,
I concur that as you explained it,
“Climastrology is easy once you get the hang of it!”
But I stand by everything I said in my response above to Anthony Banton where I concluded by saying,
“I know alarmists think AGW is a political issue divorced from empirical reality, but you really should learn from the “Brexit means Brexit” nonsense and what resulted from it because REALITY DOES MATTER.”
Richard
Now your turn – go further up the page and look at the reply I made to Chris’s comment. When you make general statements about climate it’s easy for them to be proved correct.
Sorry, had to take a phone call part way through that post – I wanted to add DETAIL ALSO MATTERS. Hope I didn’t come across as being too abrupt in the post.
Richard Page,
No problem. Abruptness is OK if it adds clarity, and I thank you for having clearly stated your view.
One thing my return to WUWT has shown me is the numerical growth of people who promote their opinions and insult those who disagree with them. They seem to not understand that useful debate requires respectful disagreement.
You made a clear amendment to my comment which others can assess. I wish everyone could recognise that is how useful discourse is conducted. Thanks.
Richard
“insult those who disagree with them. They seem to not understand that useful debate requires respectful disagreement.”
Except for those that come on here simply to repeat the same mind numbing crap that is belted out of the Grauniad, the BBC and the UK MO…(because they are just repeating third party crap.)
None of those deserve any repect or even a min of politeness, because they repeat lies and dogma, such as the staggering lies surrounding both the TEXAS power outage, and German floods fiascos….both of which COST LIVES!
Given that for longer term forecasts the Met Office is nearly always wrong, and the BBC is nearly always wrong, we need them to agree so that we can expect the opposite. This situation where they disagree really is a quandary.
Aha – HEATWAVE!!
plan for the worst would be wise
Plan for the future? Hell, government doesn’t even plan for past events.
I’d much prefer a mild winter, thank you
You’ll get what you’re given
Especially if the nutjobs who think the LIA was a fabulous climate get their way.
I know it’s anecdotal but australia have had a cold winter and spring. Likely the coldest for 20 years. In the past, when australia have a cold winter and spring europe has a cold winter to follow.
Winter was 1.18C above the average, or 4th warmest.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml
October was 0.93C above the average and September was 1.01C above the average.
Where are you to have felt that “coldest for 20 years” anomaly?
If they were to predict the weather in 80 years time I’m sure that’s so accurate I’m going to turn energy policy upside down to stop the a degree of warming but their prediction of the weather during the next 6 months can’t be trusted
IIRC, the BBC used to get its forecasts from the Met Office but dumped them because their forecasts were so lousy.
Mr Banton has usefully pointed out the futility of these winter forecasts, so in this instance it doesn’t really matter where the BBC got its forecast from. If you work on the basis it’ll be cold with mild spells, or mild with cold spells, then at worst you’ll only be partly wrong. And you can do that without a supercomputer.
Do you Brits/’subjects of Her Majesty’ have the equivalent of the US’s The Old Farmer’s Almanac?
‘Old Moore’s Almanac’ is probably one of the oldest, predating the USA although it’s primary focus is Ireland. There have been several others produced over the years but more for curiosity value than serious works – one exception might be the nautical almanacs.
They put it out to tender and took cheapest bid
As is the most intelligent course when the products are essentially the same.
I really don’t understand the Met Office justifying their forecast based on climate projections being warmer. Climate is weather over a 30+ year average.
“IIRC, the BBC used to get its forecasts from the Met Office but dumped them because their forecasts were so lousy.”
Nope (an entirely to be expected myth on here).
Meteogroup as was won because they are cheaper (tax payers money dont you know).
And as is often the case – you get what you pay for.
As expected, the usual bull gets trotted out by the usual suspects. In actual fact, the problems between the Met Office and the BBC, along with the reasons that the contract was not renewed are more complex. The story that it was about money broke after the tenders had been received – the BBC stated that they “had to secure the best value for licence fee payers” – a statement that could be read in one of two different ways. The Met Office released a statement that said they had been in talks with the BBC for some time, had reached a “dead end” but that money hadn’t been discussed at all. It rather seems that the only issue discussed was the quality of the forecasts that the BBC was getting; Aunty Beeb appears to have felt that they simply weren’t getting value for money from the Met Office.
The important thing is we believe the science(s).
Applicable ‘science’ centric quotes owed to Feynman:
“If you thought that science was certain – well, that is just an error on your part.”
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
Yes — my attempt at overly subtle sarcasm, as in, “it’s important we believe both accounts”.
Did you mean to type “séance(s)?”
Ideology trumps facts and logic.
You realise that neither can reliably predict the weather three months in advance, I hope.
This is like picking your favourite colour, Red or Black.
Occasionally it comes up Green and nobody’s happy.
Looking forward to the end of the season when they’ll both claim to have been correct.
Hi
Here is my PWS report for November, located in the country, (RG7), south of Readingb UK.
As you can see so far this month, 6 early mornings when temp was below freezing point.
The temperature sensor is too high above ground, it is built into underside of mast unit, about 5 m above grass. I will add a another temp sensor 1.5 m above grass and see how they compare.
cheers Patrick
HEAT COOL AVG
MEAN DEG DEG WIND DOM
DAY TEMP HIGH TIME LOW TIME DAYS DAYS RAIN SPEED HIGH TIME DIR
—————————————————————————————
01 7.8 12.9 11:27 1.1 23:42 10.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 8.5 12:50 204
02 4.0 13.0 13:27 -1.0 05:44 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.2 12:52 62
03 4.7 9.6 12:14 -1.0 05:46 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.4 4.9 23:27 336
04 5.9 9.4 12:30 1.3 23:55 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.9 12:54 319
05 4.6 10.9 12:59 -2.5 06:49 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 12:28 328
06 10.1 12.5 13:55 6.6 00:00 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.4 14:57 219
07 8.5 12.5 14:12 2.3 23:59 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.9 12:30 313
08 6.8 11.6 13:19 -0.5 07:06 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.0 12:39 147
09 11.8 15.5 11:53 7.4 08:04 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 12:04 178
10 11.7 13.2 12:59 10.2 01:00 6.6 0.0 3.1 0.2 2.8 02:40 149
11 9.8 14.6 12:48 5.6 23:39 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4 13:40 142
12 11.3 14.9 12:22 5.6 00:03 7.0 0.0 2.5 0.7 5.6 09:38 187
13 11.2 12.7 13:26 9.5 00:46 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 08:11 316
14 10.4 12.3 13:40 9.2 06:15 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.6 13:16 353
15 8.1 12.2 13:37 1.3 23:27 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 13:34 58
16 5.3 10.7 13:59 -1.4 06:04 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.0 13:38 91
17 6.1 12.5 13:20 1.3 23:57 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.2 11:43 317
18 8.3 14.1 13:58 1.1 00:08 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.2 14:19 314
19 10.3 11.5 12:14 7.1 00:05 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 06:40 329
20 8.9 10.3 11:47 6.1 20:39 9.5 0.0 0.4 0.1 2.8 13:41 321
21 5.8 9.0 00:28 2.6 22:48 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 8.3 13:23 348
22 4.4 10.0 13:41 0.4 23:58 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.2 12:28 356
23 2.1 8.9 14:13 -1.9 06:00 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 10:40 357
24 4.3 6.9 11:42 0.8 21:35 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4 12:27 341
25 4.6 7.1 13:28 2.2 07:19 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.0 11:04 344
Ha. Plagiarizing from The Matrix. Caught ya!
We’re too sharp here for that. 😜
Life is to short to read, much less comprehend the implications of such a pile of numbers.
“There are huge implications for customers such as Government, the energy sector, media …” T
This century, when has the media been held accountable for getting it wrong? Vast majority will continue to appeal to their base, ignoring their mistakes.
“Who will blink first”?
It’s a contest now? And what if it turns out “who blinked” was actually right?
How about we accept that we have widely varying forecasts and simply be prepared for whatever happens?
Since Global Warming predicts both warm and cold cases, these forecasters are covered. No matter what occurs they will claim it is Global Warming.
But think about it…two major forecasters can’t agree on what will happen over the next 4 months using their state-of-the-art computer models…and yet climate “science” can predict climate over the next 100 years? This is laughable.
noone has predicted UK weather more than a few weeks ahead (some perhaps would say Piers Corbyn has a pretty good record though). The credibility of the Met Office and the BBC is pretty well zero when it comes to a seasonal prediction – they are laughably wrong most of the time.
The jetstream fluctuates wildly over the UK and the weather is so changeable and chaotic that forecasting is inaccurate after about a week. I have been trying to rely on these forecasts for most of my working life but more often than not they are just plain wrong.
Short version – WHO CARES
Tomorrow night Arctic air will cover all of Western Europe.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/11/27/0000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-353.83,59.86,578
Due to the low over the North Sea, I predict snowfall.
The Met Office: Because global warming.
DTN: Because weak polar vortex.
Who to believe … who to believe?
Are either of those predictions actually testable predictions? Neither sounds like science to me. They both sound sloppy and unscientific enough that whatever weather comes they can claim they were partly right.
Seems to be generally agreed that UK winter is getting off to a cold start.
Not really surprising it is the end of November. Real issue is how well will the electricity supply cope. And second how are people going to cope with Covid this winter.
Stay warm and safe everyone . .
What will Winter 2030 be like?
All is well
If it’s warm the Met is right about CO2
If it’s cold the BBC is right about CO2
All bases covered.
Scientology at its finest
Please read these books, the two best books debunking climate change crap. Click the links to download a free copy. Please share with your family and friends.
The moral case for fossil fuels
http://library.lol/main/95AC3FC1E1D3768A2FF58A9556284B4E
Fake Invisible Catastrophes and Threats of Doom
http://library.lol/main/62F19352A7FD8FA7830C90D187094289
Global Warming causes Weather! Film at 11.
Climate Emergency! Winter may be cold or may be mild!
Need big research grants now to make sure the Sun still rises.
It was 10C higher for the dinosaurs in their world wide paradise, but one more degree will be disaster for us.
Hey come on give them a break.
WE all know it is impossible to be accurate about the next three months weather. But we can relax certain in the knowledge, they all know exactly what the climate will be in 100 years time with accuracy down the the last 0.001%
I am so grateful my as yet unborn great grandchildren will know what to expect, while I don’t know if I should put my snow treaded tyres on or not?
Yes.
It’s the MET office and the BBC, both fully on board with “catastrophic anthropogenic climate change”. It’s probable that both will be wrong at the same time.
They both just need to adjust the data to match their predictions – no problem! Settled.
When in doubt, go with the bigger doom story, they always have more glossy ads.
There were five incidents of major crop damage this year due to cold conditions. In the Northern Hemisphere European grape and olive crops were hit hard. In the Southern Hemisphere Brazil’s sugar, coffee, and second corn crop were badly damaged.