Guest essay by Eric Worrall
As China scrambles to recover from a severe coal shortage caused by Xi Jinping’s “non-negotiable” climate directives, their coal, gas and electricity buying spree is triggering shortages in India, Europe and Britain, and perhaps even the USA.
What has caused China’s electricity shortages, and is Beijing’s carbon-neutral goal solely to blame?
Sixteen of mainland China’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions are rationing electricity as they race to meet Beijing’s annual emissions reduction targetsThe price of thermal coal, used for power generation, has been soaring all year and hit new highs in recent weeks
Orange Wang and Cissy Zhou
Published: 9:00am, 28 Sep, 2021Non-negotiable carbon reduction targets have forced many local provincial governments in China to impose rushed measures such as widespread power cuts, although an urgent shortage of coal has also emerged as a likely reason for the power supply crunch that is sweeping the nation.
China’s power supply crisis ratcheted up a notch over the past week with more than half of the country enduring power cuts, making it one of the most extreme examples of energy rationing in the nation’s history, especially considering the impact it is having on regular households.
Power cuts are commonplace in China and are usually restricted to industrial users, but their frequency has risen since the second half of last year and have now been extended to households.
…
Last month, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning agency, criticised the “energy consumption intensity” of nine provinces – Guangdong, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Fujian, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang – for actually increasing their energy use instead of reducing it. Following the warning, the nine provinces stepped up their efforts to cut power, with little impact felt by customers.
“An additional 10 provinces failed to meet their progress targets in the reduction rate of energy consumption intensity, and the situation of national energy saving is very severe,” NDRC spokeswoman Meng Wei said.
…
“Xi’s dual carbon targets are politically non-negotiable. Accordingly, they have become a catalyst for all manner of policy – certainly including the power generation and consumption controls,” said Cory Combs, an analyst with consultancy firm Trivium China.
…
Read more: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3150313/what-has-caused-chinas-electricity-shortages-and-beijings
India’s coal crisis is also worsening – largely as a result of China’s last minute scramble for adequate stocks of coal and gas to survive the Winter (h/t JoNova).
India’s coal crisis brews as power demand surges, record global prices bite
Reuters / Oct 4, 2021, 22:20 IST
CHENNAI: Indian utilities are scrambling to secure coal supplies as inventories hit critical lows after a surge in power demand from industries and sluggish imports due to record global prices push power plants to the brink.
Over half of India’s 135 coal-fired power plants have fuel stocks of less than three days, government data shows, far short of federal guidelines recommending supplies of at least two weeks.
Prices of power-generation fuels are surging globally as electricity demand rebounds with industrial growth, tightening supplies of coal and liquefied natural gas.
India is competing against buyers such as China, the world’s largest coal consumer, which is under pressure to ramp up imports amid a severe power crunch.
…
Read more: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-coal-crisis-brews-as-power-demand-surges-record-global-prices-bite/articleshow/86760074.cms
How is all this affecting Europe? Europe has recently been experiencing energy supply shocks, because of their over dependence on unreliable wind power. In desperation they’ve turned to Russian gas – but the supply of Russian gas is surprisingly unavailable.
Russia has been accused of playing political games with energy supply to Europe. But a more plausible explanation for why Russia has reduced the flow of gas to Europe, is that Europe is not their most important customer.
Russia doubles electricity exports to China to help ease power crunch
By Reuters Staff
2 MIN READ
MOSCOW, Oct 1 (Reuters) – Russia’s electricity exports monopoly Inter RAO said on Friday that it would double its October supplies to China after a request from the world’s No.2 economy as it grapples with power cuts.
China is scrambling to deliver more coal to utilities to restore supply, as nearly two-thirds of Chinese provinces struggle with power rationing. The three northeast provinces of Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin – home to nearly 100 million people – have been particularly hard hit.
Inter RAO, which received a request from the State Grid Corporation of China to increase electricity supplies to the country’s northern provinces this week, started to increase exports on Friday, the company told reporters.
In October, its exports to China will rise by 100% year-on-year and by 90% from the original plan for this month, the Russian company said.
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Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/china-power-russia/russia-doubles-electricity-exports-to-china-to-help-ease-power-crunch-idUKL8N2QX3A9
As Europe declines in economic significance and descends into political climate insanity, Russia may be prioritising their relationship with China over keeping the EU supplied with gas.
Even the USA might be affected, though likely not to the extent China, India and Europe are experiencing. Thanks to the anti-pipeline and anti-fossil fuel insanity of Biden and some Democrat run states, some regions such as California depend on significant fuel shipments from overseas. Even though the USA has more or less enough primary supply to satisfy domestic demand, a self inflicted lack of distribution infrastructure means it is easier for some states to import fuel from overseas, than to pipe fuel from US based sources to where it is needed.
President Trump’s energy independence plan could have shielded the USA from overseas supply shocks, like the current unfolding international catastrophe. But Biden reversed all that. Long standing Democrat hostility to new domestic pipelines like Keystone has left parts of the USA exposed to the international market, which could trigger Carter administration style supply shocks, if the international supply dries up.
Australian politicians are as guilty of creating this shortage anyone else. Politicians and banks have starved the Aussie coal industry of capital, and thrown obstacles in the path of new mine site approvals. They have pretty much done everything in their power to kill off the local coal industry, short of outright banning it. Now the world desperately needs coal, Australia still has tremendous capacity to supply that coal – but will it be enough?
It may be too late to fix this near global energy shortfall, at least in the short term. Even if the coal becomes available, the international energy supply chain is difficult to dial up on short notice.
As the Northern Hemisphere descends into winter, India and China are scrambling for fuel supplies which increasingly aren’t available. If China and India turn to diesel, to try to bridge the coal supply shortfall, the desperate prices they offer could divert natural gas, oil and gasoline supply ships away from nations which are sensitive to overseas supplies, such as Australia, Europe and parts of the USA. Some diesel generators can burn gasoline, so gasoline supplies could also be affected by the scramble for adequate energy reserves for winter.
Australia does not have enough refining capacity or reserves to service domestic gasoline and diesel needs, so Australia is vulnerable to international gasoline and diesel price hikes and availability shortfalls, despite Australia being a net energy exporter. This could in turn feed through into increased coal mining costs, as coal miners in Australia and elsewhere pass on whatever international gasoline and diesel fuel price hikes do to their operational costs, or are forced to constrain production and transport of coal, due to not having enough fuel to run their mining operations. A deadly price spiral could develop, as coal prices drive price spikes for other fuels, which in turn drives further increases in the price of coal. A price spiral could leave poor people across the Northern Hemisphere without adequate heating this winter.
Suppliers will do what they can, and it may be enough – they have a tremendous incentive to cash in on the demand, if they can satisfy it. But this crazy self inflicted shortage of winter energy should never have been allowed to occur. It is up to we, the people, to hold our politicians accountable for their climate stupidity.
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the west is killing it self, it the worst cases of mass hysteria the world has ever seen.
Donkey will not swim until water gets to his ears, and there still some time to go before such time has arrived.
How true 😀
Pictures from Ireland
Who will throw the lifeline when everybody is under water?
I’m damn impressed that donkey knew to put his head through the life preserver!
It was the colour of course, the Donkey thought it was a carrot.
Funny, didn’t realize donkeys were that stubborn. Horses will swim as soon as the water is deep enough, we often swim our horses.
Got all the hallmarks. Doesn’t it remind you of the children’s Crusade, The Tower of Babel, Tulip and South Sea Bubbles and millenial Ufo Rescue Cults. isntitawful that one’s nearestand dearest sign up for this crap. where did We go wrong.?
What you mean we, white man?
The line is “What you mean “we”, paleface?”
I love that joke
In the Trobriand Islands of New Guinea white men are referred to a Dim Dims. This was of course in days of old, referring to their colouring compared to the locals.
Today you could be forgiven for thinking it was referring to the mental capacity of our politicians, & their climate policy.
It is a great area, still pretty isolated even today. Interestingly they were nicknamed “the islands of love” by the US troops based there during WW11. I wonder why?
How about “What do you mean “we”, you nonhuman oddity?”
It is most likely well short of the worst mass hysteria episodes of history but the number of people effected is tremendously larger. After all, the mobs are not directly killing people (yet).
Let’s face reality.
We’re all going to be collateral damage to the globalists’ lust for control.
And the weather will not inflict a scratch on anyone, it’s just an innocent hostage.
Yes sir. It is sad to see China go the way of California. However, unlike the West China will make corrections
You mean they’ll do it like Mao? He was sooo successful with many of his little programs and certainly was willing to change course when it appeared anyone would begin suffering….
No. The Chinese are building 450 new coal fired units and 35 nuclear plants. The ‘crats who ordered energy cuts will be liquidated from public life. As they should be.
But the head man, Xi, will be protected.
Your numbers are pure nonsense.
Lame. We only know the negative things about Mao, History is never so black and white. Mao was pro kids.
Nationalistic countries have a future,
Xi’s error is probably already fixed.
Pro eating kids in ’59……
As soon as COP26 is over and the shouting dies down a bit.
Without a doubt.
China is suffering because they are trying so hard to decarbonise*? Just before COP26 where they’ll be able to brag about how they are suffering and the West must do more? Isn’t it just the teensiest bit possible that it’s just a ploy to make the West continue on its own suicidal anti-fossil fuel crusade, handing world domination to the Middle Kingdom?
The UK should by now be entirely self sufficient in gas (that’s _gas_ , not gasoline nb, gasoline is a liquid and gas is, well, a gas) from the huge reserves in the Bowland shale. The ruling classes are entirely guilty of suppressing UK gas development and if the lights go out this winter should be held to blame.
We’ve already had a close shave in September. September! Winter drawers on everybody.
JF
*Hideous word and not accurate, but that’s what we have to get used to.
They tried one-child with progressive (e.g. generational) effect. They changed their position to normalize selective-child (i.e. one-child, delegated). And now hydrocarbon avoidance, with similarly catastrophic effect.
Technocrats never learn the lessons of the past.
They never able to learn the lesson of present too… even when given in full live expression of it all.
Fingers crossed that Zuck or the Face politburo learned the lesson of present… hopefully!
Mods, you better let my comment, next, be allowed.
Please.
[Please stop complaining-mod]
please keep doing your job!
If you can, that is… as sloths have no horns!
Mods, please for gosh’s sake, be fair….
[Please stop complaining-mod]
Mods, it is very frustrating when you hold comments until the conversation has moved on.
I empathise with Whiten’s pain. It happens too often.
At the Guardian they just delete the comment. They don’t pretend that my comment was seen and had no impact.
“They don’t pretend that my comment was seen and had no impact.”
Absolutely LOVE the irony . . .
95% of moderation is done by volunteers with no set schedule. Comments aren’t manually held by the moderators, they are manually released. whiten crossed some lines and gets automatically held for the time being. His whining will lengthen that period.
Charles you just lying… and you know it.
Or permanently. Who knows?
your call. your ball,
An FYI. I honestly don’t remember who asked me to put you on moderation hold or why. Someone called attention to some of your comments and I concurred with them. If I wanted to I could go through my emails and slack messages and figure it out, but I actually don’t care. Normally around this time I would be at the stage of considering taking you off the leash, but accusing me of lying when I give you straight talk about how this operates behind the scenes changes that timeline. I have always gone out of my way, when I was the one doing it, to give extra leeway to the opposing team. I do little actual moderation these days. I admin on the back end.
Whiten people only go on the hold list as a last resort. It’s more work for us, and I think everyone on our side of the fence at least enjoys a lively debate.
I approved your comment yesterday you said was being held in moderation then vanished from your view, I checked the history of that comment Akismet says it was NOT spam and that was it, really don’t know why it was sitting there in the mod bin but a few comments lands there for NO apparent reason according to the history of the comment posted it was your turn to have this problem, please don’t take it so seriously when this rare problem happens.
When you are totally ignorant, and you have two sides telling you opposite things, who do you listen to?
Apparently the side that shouts the loudest.
You mean ideologues never learn.
China is suffering because Xi made suck-up gestures to COP26 that got implemented the good old socialist way: Underlings only looked at the goal from on high, not the consequences. The underlings will be punished. Nothing will change in the workers’ paradise.
Another example of The Law of Unintended Consequences: China’s candle factories are running at capacity, trying to meet rapidly rising demand. I guess the ChiComs consider candle makers ‘Essential Industries’….
Aren’t most candles made from paraffin wax which in turn is made from … petroleum?
The abandoning of sane governance across the world will lead to the millions of deaths and with it social and economic upheaval that might well precipitate revolutionary uprisings. Perhaps that is what it will take to bring back the running of economies using sense.
Be sure, the death will be attributed to global warming or Covid.
The seed are planted.
Yeah right. The swish of the guillotine blade, the plop as a politician’s head falls into the basket. CoViD Death! You mean he wasn’t vaxxed? Oh, then he deserved it.
Don’t be daft or was it a typo? Surely you meant Billions.
A quote from me with a wee nod to Joe Stalin
“ One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic. A billion deaths can only result from the ignorant meddling of well intentioned idiots”
The recent USA, Canadian and German elections, all liberal, all green all tax and spend guarantees a deep dark financial depression from crippling inflation.
No, Barry, thoughtless revolutionary uprisings always lead to chaos and harm to the common man.
It’s quite disturbing to face, from one to the other instant, directly the reality…..
The “instantaneous” arrival of reality that was accurately predicted decades ago should not surprise anyone.
But they don’t live in reality, the belief is, their visions are the reality.
Daily Mail once a bastion of the BoJo’s supporter armies has gone ‘rogue’ on our beloved Boris
“Is anyone else laughing? Fury at Boris’s ‘blustering and vacuous’ joke-laden Tory speech vowing to ‘Level Up’ wages and claiming Thatcher would have backed tax rises to bail out the NHS… while UK faces MORE energy cost spikes and ‘stagflation’ threat ….But the address came amid an increasingly grim economic backdrop, with warnings today that more energy suppliers face going bust as natural gas costs spiked by another 40 per cent.“
“…. and if he doesn’t get Britain’s supply lines sorted by Christmas he’ll be the biggest joke of all Holy moly, we’re really in deep s*** this time…” said DM, while Boris expect the next 2*(n+1) child, where n could be any number as long as n>3. I thought that all the ‘climate change’ weirdows insists there are too many people in the world as it is, while this pair are determined to add at steady frequency of one more/annum.
I thought winters had been erased by climate models. Who knew?
Time to wake up neo…
They’re more like Cypher than Neo
Come celebrate the insanity in Glasgow!
And so the climate dominoes start to fall but not in the way the Globalists planned. The USA should be safe for a while because of the shift to natural gas fired plants and the capability to be energy independent to a degree if necessary. People of the world doing without won’t last long though. Telling everyone “if you didn’t start using fossil fuels to begin with this all could have been avoided” won’t go over well.
I think everything is going as planned. They people pulling the string want billions of people to die. After all, there will not be any repercussions for the people that pull the strings. The progressives will always accuse anyone else no matter what happens.
The people in charge will be long gone before billions die. The populace has a way of handling really bad leaders.
The populace has a way of handling really bad leaders.
Stalin, H!tler, Mao, etc. would suggest otherwise.
They tried that with the Texas blackouts.
Interesting that the initial crunch is emanating from China and India rather than the West.
Time to get fracking for gas and coal as a matter of urgency in order to avoid them dragging us down.
If Evergrande hits the buffers too then an almighty crash is on the cards.
What is happening is that the bounce back from the COVID pandemic has brought forward the energy crunch that would otherwise have occurred several years hence.
Better to have it happen now rather than then by which time the world would have been in an even deeper hole.
It’s deep enough for the beginning. 😀
i agree with you Let us hope for a really brutal winter to bring a few pigeons home to roost before we have totally trashed then flawed, but best , societies that ever existed
I disagree.
The COVID pandemic has retarded the energy crunch that would otherwise have occurred several years ago.
The economy is not as large now as it would have been without Covid.
China and India, both backers of the United Nations, are having energy supply/blackout problems, and appear to be headed into a La Niña colder than usual winter? Not to worry, there is now a “United Nations Children’s Advisory Group on Climate Change”, and they can provide solutions to anything. Maybe like “Shivering in the dark for fun and profit”, or maybe “Donkeys Rule-SUV’s are Cruel” (donkeys double down on eco-friendly/Net Zero because you can burn the donkey chips (see “buffalo chips” for explanation). How much do you have to terrorize children to get to this stage?
There is sudden crunch in India for two reasons
a) Post Covid resurgence in economic activities is way above the expectation.
b) Due to heavier monsoon, coal mining was affected.
Anyway, govt is planning to sell some of the coal mines from national Public Sector to private hands to raise the capacity of mining. And BTW, India is a hot country. Cold winter deaths do happen in Northern parts, not in the whole country. Most of us enjoy winter.
if you cup your ear to the breeze you can hear the sound of low carbon chicken Littles coming home to roost.
Congratulations, Leo, you have hearing much better than mine. I do have a sense of smell, however and I know where the cold front hitting us (Argentina) now came from because I can smell the Penguin Poop.
With oil at $75+/bbl, the Permian Basin can likely ramp up to get the U.S. through the winter. A Jones Act exemption for LNG shipping, however, may be needed to keep the New England pipeline NIMBYs from freezing to death.
Both Left Coasts are in for an interesting winter.
They will do their best in Glasgow to ignore the energy crisis completely. Anyone who asks about it will be shown the door.
Green Leap Forward? Mao acolyte?
Hey! Get with the times. Its now “Build Back Better.”
“Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah”
But dangerous for Americans “Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.”
Are we really sure Chinese blackouts were caused by emissions rationing?
Not that in trying to keep up with Western demand for huuuuge microchips, plastic tat and other planned-obsolescence crap – they’ve simply fallen over.
Tried to run too fast. Happens to the best doncha know
Also, tis not= good ‘customer relations’ to suggest that The Customers have been ‘greedy’ or anything – gotta say something and nonsense about emissions fits the bill nicely – gets everyone off the hook and smelling of roses.
‘cept that clown BoJo, recently coercing everyone into buying cheap/nasty LED lightbulbs, just for starters. Dread to think what next.
Surely not electric cars, chock full of huuuuge silicon (not so) microchips as they are -even BoJo couldn’t be that dumb
And anyway, its all over now, that lovely Mr Putin has come to save the day..
Quote:”UK wholesale gas prices hit a record high before falling after Russia said it was boosting supplies to Europe”
here
See?. Even Mr Putin likes the smell of roses…..
or maybe he just fancies an new iPhone.
Putin stepped forward and said:
“I’m your saviour, try to remember that !! I will on this occasion get you out of the hole and pump more gas, but might not do it next time. OK”.
Now Europeans are loudly rejoicing:
“Viva Putin ! Viva Gasprom ! Viva Vlad the Great !.
And #FJB!
A bit strong that, they might think it, but not say too loud.
I got a note in my last electric bill and it said that the February 2021 arctic cold front resulted in about $875 million in excess costs to Oklahoma Gas and Electric company, and the company is asking the Oklahoma Corporation Commission to allow OG&E to increase each customer’s bill by about $4.00 per month.
At least we have electricity to buy. It looks like others around the world may be in for some rough times this winter.
I guess four dollars a month isn’t too bad. My electricity never did go off during that cold snap. Of course, there is a coal-fired powerplant located about 20 miles from me, so that may have something to do with it.
It sounds like a lot of poor planning has gone on around the globe. Even the “super-efficient” Chicom dictatorship seem to have fallen on their faces.
What a world we live in! I guess that’s to be expected when there are so many delusional people running around loose, and many of them are our leaders.
When governments have been selling global warming and renewable energy, for over 30 years, it doesn’t look good to be preparing for cold weather by stockpiling fossil fuels. For years we’ve been saying this would happen.
“For years we’ve been saying this would happen.”
And even as recently as last week (maybe even yesterday) we have folk around here still saying it won’t. Figure that.
I’ve given up trying to figure any of it. We’re entering a scientific dark age.
It is “super efficient” ….. at implementing crazy ideas by its infallible leader, Xi.
That infallible leader, Xi’s ego, is going to get us into a war.
Or maybe not. Our fearless leader Biden, may tuck his tail and run away again like he did in Afghanistan.
Xi has no rational reason for attacking Taiwan. It’s all about his ego. How many lives does it take to satisfy his ego?
Xi says the U.S.is bringing on nuclear war if it attempts to defend Taiwan. No, it’s your ego, that is bringing on nuclear war, Xi. It’s solely up to you. Nothing is forcing you to attack Taiwan.
If there is a nuclear war, Xi may not survive it. If I were in charge, I would make sure of it, and I would make sure I communicated that to him in advance, to give him something to think about. He and his loved ones would be the number one target of the U.S. And I would tell him there would be no “limited” nuclear war. If Xi wants to go nuclear then he would get the full measure of a U.S. response.
Do you think Biden would talk to Xi like that? Hell no! Biden is a coward and an object of blackmail, so he keeps his mouth shut when it comes to the Chicoms.
One has to be tough with dictators. To the point that you are willing to go to war against them. We don’t have that kind of leadership at the moment. Our current leadership is only good at running away.
I’m sitting pretty in my Red State. The nearby nuclear power plant pumps out power reliably , day in and day out at $.125 kWhr. The rest of the state is powered by coal fired plants scrub out particulates and gases, keeping our skies bright and clean. Meanwhile I can manage my investments in uranium, coal and gas in peace. For the rest: Freeze in the dark, suckers.
Hard to believe China even considered cutting back on C02, well, what ye sow ye shall reap.
The price of Xi virtue-signaling prior to COP26. Don’t worry, he won’t be held accountable.
China embargoed the import of AU coal to teach them a lesson. Numerous ships stranded at sea with China refusing to allow them to port. Lesson learned? I generally operate on a ‘double or nothing’ basis. That basis in the case of the embargo of AU coal would be wait until they (China) lift the embargo and then wait double the amount of time before shipping any more.
I apply that ‘double or nothing’ standard in my personal life and it WILL put a stop to one who is frequently creating an argument and not speaking for a few weeks to see if they are having an impact. I’ll double down. Lessons are learned.
Dare ye, go on read!
China strengthens financial support for coal, electricity productionhttp://www.news.cn/english/2021-10/05/c_1310227733.htm
C’mon WUWT why the blind-spot on financial speculation? Shares in Black-Rock, what?
Anyway anyone with even a bit of survival instinct, will look at China and what it did with Evergrande, and now with energy. Hey, we used to do that!
Sitting on our hands watching Wall Street and City of London financiers profiteer off “green”-created scarcity pleases Greta’s handlers at Davos – she might even get a Nobel Prize!
India is not in the same sphere, yet….
OK, I’m sorry, but “Orange Wang and Cissy Zhou” cannot pass without comment in my version of the English language.
You can’t fix stupid.