In April 2017, I noted that the total capacity of existing, under construction, approved and proposed LNG export facilities was 44 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). This is the energy-equivalent of 7.8 million barrels of crude oil per day (mmBOE/d). At the time, Saudi Arabia was exporting about 7.4 mmbbl/d.
Well, the U.S. is still on track to become the Saudi Arabia of natural gas…
Ten years ago, on February 24, 2016, the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from the Sabine Pass Terminal was exported from the United States, marking the beginning of a new era in U.S. LNG exports. Today, the United States is the world’s largest LNG exporter, ahead of both Australia and Qatar. LNG exports surged from 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016 to 15.0 Bcf/d in 2025, and in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. LNG exports to exceed 18.1 Bcf/d in 2027. LNG exports from the United States increased for several reasons, including abundant natural gas supply and reserves, flexible LNG export contracts, and relatively low feedgas costs. In addition, increasing international demand and a favorable investment climate have supported LNG infrastructure expansions in the United States.
The United States has eight operational LNG export terminals, and by 2031 we expect export capacity to nearly double compared with December 2025. Most recently, an expansion of the Corpus Christi LNG facility shipped its first cargo in March 2025, following the startup of the Plaquemines LNG facility in late December 2024, and Golden Pass LNG is expected to ship its first cargo in early 2026.
This could take LNG exports up to 30 Bcf/d (5.3 mmBOE/d) in just five years. The current total of existing and under construction facilities is 33.67 Bcf/d (5.95 mmBOE/d). An additional 10.25 Bcf/d (1.81 BOE/d) of export capacity is currently approved for construction. In most cases, FEED (front-end engineering design) has been completed and construction contracts have been awarded. This would bring total LNG export capacity up to 43.92 Bcf/d (7.76 mmBOE/d).
Can the U.S. produce enough natural gas to export 44 Bcf/d?
The United States produced 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, 75% more than the world’s second-largest natural gas producer, Russia, in 2023, the most recent year for which we have comprehensive worldwide data on natural gas production.
The United States has been the world’s largest producer of natural gas since 2009. More recently, U.S. natural gas production has increased further, averaging 106 Bcf/d for the first half of 2025 (1H2025).
Three regions in the United States are among the top 10 natural gas-producing areas in the world when ranked independently against other natural gas-producing countries:
The Appalachia region, in the northeastern United States, encompasses the Marcellus and Utica shale plays and ranked as the second-largest producer with 33 Bcf/d in 2023. More recently, production from the region has continued to average 33 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
The Permian region, in Texas and New Mexico, ranked fifth worldwide with 21 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Permian has since increased to average 25 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
The Haynesville region, in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, ranked as the eighth-largest natural gas-producing area with 15 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Haynesville has declined slightly to average 14 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
Brown = Annual Production (mmcf). Blue = Annual Consumption (mmcf). Green = Proved Reserves (Bcf). EIA
In 2024 marketed production was 41,383,893 mmcf (41,384 Bcf, 113 Bcf/d), domestic consumption was 33,055,901 mmcf (33,056 Bcf, 91 Bcf/d). Production exceeded consumption by about 21 Bcf/d. At year-end 2024, proved reserves stood at 603.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)… A reserves/production (R/P) ratio of 14.5.
LNG exports drive up natural gas prices… Right?
Wrong!
Natural gas prices were much higher before we began exporting LNG.
Prior to the “shale revolution,” we were a net importer of natural gas.
Blue = Natural Gas Price ($/mcf). Brown = Natural Gas Imports (mmcf). Green = Natural Gas Exports (mmcf). EIA
The U.S. can export LNG without driving up prices because we produce far more natural gas than we consume and the delta between production and consumption is widening. MANGGA!!!
Now for the coup de grâce!
Saudi Arabia’s New U.S. LNG Deal Marks a Stunning Geopolitical Reversal
Simon Watkins
Mon, 23 February 2026
The signing of a 20-year agreement for U.S. gas producer Caturus’s Commonwealth liquefied natural gas (LNG) division to supply one million tonnes per annum of LNG to Saudi Arabia’s Aramco is enormously significant both inside and outside the energy market. At a time when LNG has become the world’s most flexible instrument of energy statecraft, the decision by Aramco to lock in U.S. supply for two decades may speak to a deeper geopolitical recalibration underway in Riyadh. For Washington, meanwhile, the agreement offers a rare opportunity to re-anchor influence in a region where China and Russia have made rapid inroads over the past decade.
[…]
For Washington, this latest LNG supply deal to Saudi Arabia marks an extraordinary reversal of its previous energy dependency on the Kingdom. Since the end of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, the U.S. has not only become the world’s number one crude oil producer by a long way, but its top natural gas producer, and LNG producer too. In an irony unlikely to be lost on President Trump, U.S. firms have been providing assistance to Saudi Arabia in the development of its landmark Jafurah shale gas development since around 2019.
It is my understanding that NY State does not allow fracking for oil and natural gas within its borders. Think about how much more we could be producing and exporting if the state did allow it in the southwest portion of the state ( its portion of the Appalachia Formation on the map above).
Maybe I’m wrong here, but it seems to me that the state is denying itself a revenue source with the ban.
Correct. My new slogan here in rural NY is Recarbonize NY! We are sitting on huge deposits of natural gas while the State is currently pushing its “Energy” “Plan” which proliferates wind + solar for electricity, with massive battery support, and mandates electrification of building heat and transportation. It is truly insane. Meanwhile, the “DEFR’s” (dispatchable emission free resources) required for electrical system reliability remain imaginary. All this while the state is presently getting 60+ percent of its electricity from natural gas and “dual fuel” facilities – which no doubt are presently on natural gas most of the time.
It’s the same with electricity production in the US.
The US doesn’t need to make large expensive investments in new electricity production when Canada already has the capacity.
It’s even worse. Instead of using the fossil fuels within their state, and building ng power plants to produce electricity, they buy electricity from Canada. Canadian hydropower is critical for meeting peak winter demand in New York.
So does New York expect to have any economic growth? AI data centers? Yes. They plan to provide the needed power by constructing offshore wind farms and buying more power from Canada. They will not be in control of their power supply or prices. Good plan – not.
I doubt New York will be building new windmill farms as long as Trump is in office.
AlbertBrand
February 26, 2026 3:09 pm
If New York State politicians would get out of the way our energy prices would plummet. We would have all the natural gas we need and then some. We can hope can’t we?
Victor
February 26, 2026 4:04 pm
The US does not need to increase Natural Gas production.
The shortage of Natural Gas in the US is being covered by Canada.
Canada exported 5.83 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to the US in December and can double exports as demand increases.
Canada is also covering the shortage of oil in the US by exporting 4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) to the US. https://www.industrialinfo.com/news/article/us-taking-more-canadian-gas-amid-cold-snap–352482
In 2024, the US exported 3,338,610 mmcf to Canada and Mexico via pipelines.
In 2024, the US imported 3,144,546 mmcf from Canada and Mexico via pipelines.
In 2024, the US produced 37,724,931 mmcf of natural gas.
With exports being nearly equal to imports for 2024, the economics and logistics must be fascinating. On the surface, it’s seems like me giving you $5 bucks on Monday just so on Tuesday you give me $5.
We import a small net volume of gas from Canada and export a similarly small net volume to Mexico. It’s simply a matter of where the supply, demand and pipelines are.
It’s similar with oil. We import dilbit from Alberta for refineries that require heavier oil. We export light-sweet crude to refineries in eastern Canada.
He’s blackmailing other countries. Threatening allies. His word means nothing as he will break any contract he made one month later anyways.
Canada and Europe are right distancing themselves from the US.
He’s blackmailing other countries. Threatening allies.
Good.
His word means nothing as he will break any contract he made one month later anyways.
Sounds like you’re confusing him with Biden, Obama and any other previous
left-wing president.
Canada and Europe are right distancing themselves from the US.
As is typically normal for you, you got that completely bass-ackwards. The US is distancing itself from increasingly Socialist, globalist, authoritarian Canada and Europe.
I think that a detachment from reality is a defining characteristic of liberals, particularly the ‘progressives.’ They think so highly of themselves that it is beyond their ken that anyone who disagrees with them could possibly be right, therefore they assume that they have the moral high-ground because they are always right!
The growth of LNG will be substantial. “U.S. LNG exports are expected to continue their strong upward trend, with some projections indicating year-on-year increases of over 20% in early 2026. Cargoes were up 22% to 69 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, and this momentum is continuing into 2026, with U.S. exports in March 2026 projected to be 26% higher than in March 2025.”
But as stated in the article, it has little effect on our NG prices. Europe stores NG for the winter months when they can’t meet their own needs. Replenishing that storage comes during the summer months and particularly the shoulder seasons of Spring and Fall, when demand – and prices- are at their yearly lows.
As far as NG supply, we have ample. Price spikes are the result of lack of pipeline capacity. We have plenty of NG but we can’t always get it where it is needed.
Thanks David.
Speaking of the hydrocarbons under western NY and adjacent Pennsylvania:
Using the internet, find Bradford, PA and 8 miles east, Duke Center. My first job – I was about 5 – was to walk a path along a hillside in that region with an uncle and, after draining water from the tanks, let the oil drain to the highway (#346) below. I was also assigned the task of collecting Leeks as we went from tank to tank.
For background reading, search for “the Bradford oil play”
For WWII buffs and English readers, search for
“ National Munitions Plant of Eldred, PA ”
Eldred is 5 miles east of Duke Center.
Off topic but I spent a lot of my youth four counties east of you, in Bradford County. My mother grew up in Sayre, PA, right on the NY state border. I grew up in Virginia but we went up there on vacation every summer when I was a kid. Stopped in Wilkes-Barre first on the way up because that’s where my dad was from.
Good thing the Biden is no longer in office. Since Trump actually cares about American citizens, it’s Drill, Baby Drill, and taxpayers won’t be on the hook for squat.
Except this is hardy “common usage.” In the climate change world, it means they do not have any convincing evidence to back up their conjecture. They use “could” to express their own lack of certainty.
When the first thing you see when you visit a site is a plea for money so that they can continue to fight Trump, the last thing you expect to see is honest reporting. And your site lives up to expectations.
BTW, the oil industry is already required to clean up drilling sites, and they do. Unlike wind and solar sites, the oil industry is required to post bonds before drilling/mining starts. These bonds cover the cost of cleanup, so that even if the company goes under, the cleanup will still happen.
According to the IEA Final Investment Decisions for new LNG projects “surged” in 2025 and there is now “an unprecedented 300bn cubic metres (bcm) of new annual LNG export capacity scheduled to start operation by 2030, a 50% increase in available LNG supply”
That has only happened because there is a growing market for LNG.
IEA ‘World Energy Outlook 2025’ (Nov 2025)
drh
February 27, 2026 6:43 am
David, the Feb 20, 2026 SPR report show that there is about 415 MMbbl of oil in the reserve. The EIA shows that the historical maximum (sometime in 2009) was about 726 MMbbl. Do you know if that 726 figure is the maximum it can hold, or is that just what it was holding at the time. IOW, how close is the US to fully replenishing the SPR?
Great post Dave. I remember looking at the shale gas potential in Europe years ago when I was still working and it looked outstanding to me. Looking at more recent assessments today, I noticed that Poland is still on top with around 146 TCF in technically recoverable shale gas, but they are doing nothing, France has excellent resources as well and doing nothing, same with Ukraine, but at least they have an excuse. You can’t fix stupid.
Rational Keith
February 27, 2026 2:47 pm
Under the feet of New Brunswick voters is a huge reservoir of NG, but officials won’t allow fracing to access it.
‘First reading: New Brunswick sits on an ocean of natural gas. It’s now importing Australian LNG’, National Post via MSN of 27Feb26.
So LNG is being imported from Australia which is a hike away.
It is my understanding that NY State does not allow fracking for oil and natural gas within its borders. Think about how much more we could be producing and exporting if the state did allow it in the southwest portion of the state ( its portion of the Appalachia Formation on the map above).
Maybe I’m wrong here, but it seems to me that the state is denying itself a revenue source with the ban.
Correct. My new slogan here in rural NY is Recarbonize NY! We are sitting on huge deposits of natural gas while the State is currently pushing its “Energy” “Plan” which proliferates wind + solar for electricity, with massive battery support, and mandates electrification of building heat and transportation. It is truly insane. Meanwhile, the “DEFR’s” (dispatchable emission free resources) required for electrical system reliability remain imaginary. All this while the state is presently getting 60+ percent of its electricity from natural gas and “dual fuel” facilities – which no doubt are presently on natural gas most of the time.
Here is the NYISO Real-Time Dashboard. See the “real time fuel mix” chart.
https://www.nyiso.com/real-time-dashboard
DEFR = Small Modular Reactors. Ontario is building four units. NY should put in an order for some SMR.
BTW: Did the monster Nor’easter bury you with lots of snow.
It’s the same with electricity production in the US.
The US doesn’t need to make large expensive investments in new electricity production when Canada already has the capacity.
The electricity shortage in the US is covered by Canada.
Canada exported 27.2 terawatt-hours of electricity to the US in 2024.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/189029/us-electricity-imports-from-canada-since-1999/
The US doesn’t have an electricity shortage
But The Donald wants to charge a tariff? (Or Canada threatens to surcharge for export?)
Where I live, we got a mere dusting from that Nor’easter as NYC and the New England coast got buried.
It’s even worse. Instead of using the fossil fuels within their state, and building ng power plants to produce electricity, they buy electricity from Canada. Canadian hydropower is critical for meeting peak winter demand in New York.
So does New York expect to have any economic growth? AI data centers? Yes. They plan to provide the needed power by constructing offshore wind farms and buying more power from Canada. They will not be in control of their power supply or prices. Good plan – not.
I doubt New York will be building new windmill farms as long as Trump is in office.
If New York State politicians would get out of the way our energy prices would plummet. We would have all the natural gas we need and then some. We can hope can’t we?
The US does not need to increase Natural Gas production.
The shortage of Natural Gas in the US is being covered by Canada.
Canada exported 5.83 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to the US in December and can double exports as demand increases.
Canada is also covering the shortage of oil in the US by exporting 4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) to the US.
https://www.industrialinfo.com/news/article/us-taking-more-canadian-gas-amid-cold-snap–352482
There is no shortage of natural gas in the U.S. We import and export natural gas to Canada and Mexico where it makes economic and logistical sense.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_a.htm
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2A.htm
In 2024, the US exported 3,338,610 mmcf to Canada and Mexico via pipelines.
In 2024, the US imported 3,144,546 mmcf from Canada and Mexico via pipelines.
In 2024, the US produced 37,724,931 mmcf of natural gas.
With exports being nearly equal to imports for 2024, the economics and logistics must be fascinating. On the surface, it’s seems like me giving you $5 bucks on Monday just so on Tuesday you give me $5.
We import a small net volume of gas from Canada and export a similarly small net volume to Mexico. It’s simply a matter of where the supply, demand and pipelines are.
It’s similar with oil. We import dilbit from Alberta for refineries that require heavier oil. We export light-sweet crude to refineries in eastern Canada.
“dilbit” — learned something new today. Cool!
Diluted bitumen.
President Trump should be very nice to Canada because much pot ash is exported to the US which will keep his golf course green.
Trump treats people the way they treat him.
Treat Trump nice and he will do the same for you.
He’s blackmailing other countries. Threatening allies. His word means nothing as he will break any contract he made one month later anyways.
Canada and Europe are right distancing themselves from the US.
Good.
Sounds like you’re confusing him with Biden, Obama and any other previous
left-wing president.
As is typically normal for you, you got that completely bass-ackwards. The US is distancing itself from increasingly Socialist, globalist, authoritarian Canada and Europe.
Socialists really do live in a reality of their own making.
I think that a detachment from reality is a defining characteristic of liberals, particularly the ‘progressives.’ They think so highly of themselves that it is beyond their ken that anyone who disagrees with them could possibly be right, therefore they assume that they have the moral high-ground because they are always right!
The growth of LNG will be substantial. “U.S. LNG exports are expected to continue their strong upward trend, with some projections indicating year-on-year increases of over 20% in early 2026. Cargoes were up 22% to 69 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, and this momentum is continuing into 2026, with U.S. exports in March 2026 projected to be 26% higher than in March 2025.”
But as stated in the article, it has little effect on our NG prices. Europe stores NG for the winter months when they can’t meet their own needs. Replenishing that storage comes during the summer months and particularly the shoulder seasons of Spring and Fall, when demand – and prices- are at their yearly lows.
As far as NG supply, we have ample. Price spikes are the result of lack of pipeline capacity. We have plenty of NG but we can’t always get it where it is needed.
Frankly, the US should ship NO LNG to Europe. Let them use their own.
They pay for it with real money.
Thanks David.
Speaking of the hydrocarbons under western NY and adjacent Pennsylvania:
Using the internet, find Bradford, PA and 8 miles east, Duke Center. My first job – I was about 5 – was to walk a path along a hillside in that region with an uncle and, after draining water from the tanks, let the oil drain to the highway (#346) below. I was also assigned the task of collecting Leeks as we went from tank to tank.
For background reading, search for “the Bradford oil play”
For WWII buffs and English readers, search for
“ National Munitions Plant of Eldred, PA ”
Eldred is 5 miles east of Duke Center.
Off topic but I spent a lot of my youth four counties east of you, in Bradford County. My mother grew up in Sayre, PA, right on the NY state border. I grew up in Virginia but we went up there on vacation every summer when I was a kid. Stopped in Wilkes-Barre first on the way up because that’s where my dad was from.
Poisoned Wells: U.S. Taxpayers Could Be on Hook for Up to $18 Billion Well Cleanup Shortfall
https://www.citizen.org/article/poisoned-wells-u-s-taxpayers-could-be-on-hook-for-up-to-18-billion-well-cleanup-shortfall/
Good thing the Biden is no longer in office. Since Trump actually cares about American citizens, it’s Drill, Baby Drill, and taxpayers won’t be on the hook for squat.
The telling words here are “could be.”
And monkeys “could be” flying out of my butt.
The common usage of “could” only means that it is not impossible.
Except this is hardy “common usage.” In the climate change world, it means they do not have any convincing evidence to back up their conjecture. They use “could” to express their own lack of certainty.
When the first thing you see when you visit a site is a plea for money so that they can continue to fight Trump, the last thing you expect to see is honest reporting. And your site lives up to expectations.
BTW, the oil industry is already required to clean up drilling sites, and they do. Unlike wind and solar sites, the oil industry is required to post bonds before drilling/mining starts. These bonds cover the cost of cleanup, so that even if the company goes under, the cleanup will still happen.
Always love a stupid green group making a crazy claim while seeking donations … never seen that before from them 🙂
E.g. making other countries suffer and blackmail them. trump does with oil in cuba what his idol tried with gas in europe.
No wonder countries that import energy ressources (Hint: that’s most countries) move to renewables.
As is typical for you, you got that completely back-aswards (and you spelled “resources” wrong, even on a site with a spell checker).
It’s no wonder that countries that move to renewables (Hint: that’s most countries) are importing energy “resources“,,,from the US.
List of countries moving to renewables … Cuba 🙂
According to the IEA Final Investment Decisions for new LNG projects “surged” in 2025 and there is now “an unprecedented 300bn cubic metres (bcm) of new annual LNG export capacity scheduled to start operation by 2030, a 50% increase in available LNG supply”
That has only happened because there is a growing market for LNG.
IEA ‘World Energy Outlook 2025’ (Nov 2025)
David, the Feb 20, 2026 SPR report show that there is about 415 MMbbl of oil in the reserve. The EIA shows that the historical maximum (sometime in 2009) was about 726 MMbbl. Do you know if that 726 figure is the maximum it can hold, or is that just what it was holding at the time. IOW, how close is the US to fully replenishing the SPR?
727 mmbbl was at one time the maximum capacity. That has been reduced to 715 mmbbl due to infrastructure changes.
Great post Dave. I remember looking at the shale gas potential in Europe years ago when I was still working and it looked outstanding to me. Looking at more recent assessments today, I noticed that Poland is still on top with around 146 TCF in technically recoverable shale gas, but they are doing nothing, France has excellent resources as well and doing nothing, same with Ukraine, but at least they have an excuse. You can’t fix stupid.
Under the feet of New Brunswick voters is a huge reservoir of NG, but officials won’t allow fracing to access it.
‘First reading: New Brunswick sits on an ocean of natural gas. It’s now importing Australian LNG’, National Post via MSN of 27Feb26.
So LNG is being imported from Australia which is a hike away.