And It’s Not Even Winter! Europe’s Energy Supply Debacle Already Here: Painful Prices, Shortages, Blackouts

Reposted from the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 29. September 2021

Empty gas stocks, windless days, disrupted supply lines, CO2 certificates, soaring inflation, blackouts, bitter cold and other forebode a winter of discontent across Europe. 

Recently Bloomberg reported on how Europe was on the path to a severe energy crisis this winter, with risks of blackouts.

Dutch TTF #gas priced in #crudeoil equivalent now trading at $148/barrels . If not arrested soon it will be surging diesel prices next, thereby supporting the middle barrel, and oil prices in general. #OOTT #ONGT pic.twitter.com/QP9aERpho9

— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) September 15, 2021

Germany’s N-TV also reports a dire picture, writing “Europe’s gas storage facilities are largely empty, and supplies are not flowing as they should.

Already surging energy prices are forcing the first companies to close factories in Europe, and German companies like BASF and copper producer Aurubis are complaining about extremely high prices for energy sources.

U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs is warning of “almost empty gas storage facilities” and that “Europe faces an acute energy crisis.” Utilities across Europe have already announced massive price hikes.

Another problem, according to N-TV:  Companies are struggling to get supplies of raw materials and semi-finished goods. “Inflation in Germany has already climbed to its highest level in almost 30 years.” Prices for raw plastic, for example have skyrocketed since late last year.

Tripled prices

The price of gas in Amsterdam has already more than tripled since the beginning of the year. The reason, according to N-TV, are interrupted supplies from Russia, and production from Europe’s North Sea gas fields “has also been curtailed”! Also “CO2 tax and oil price drive up fuel prices,” reports N-TV.

Phaseout of coal, nuclear worsening the problem

Adding to the European energy supply woes: “Europe has recently experienced an unusual wind lull”, which has forced Germany to ramp up its coal (lignite) fired power generation, which, according to N-TV, “is in the process of being phased out.” The price of burning coal is also more expensive, thanks to the now higher price of CO2 emission certificates.

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September 29, 2021 10:07 pm

They were warned but they believed that their stored supply of Unicorn Farts and sea of Moral Superiority would carry them through unscathed.

Robertvd
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
September 30, 2021 8:39 am

You think Greta understands that without energy Sweden is a very cold place in winter.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Robertvd
September 30, 2021 8:44 am

Let her freeze and starve to death in the dark – then she can become the “poster child” for the rational side of the “climate” arguments…

Cosmic
Reply to  Robertvd
September 30, 2021 9:54 am

Greta don’t know sh#T!

Willem Post
Reply to  Robertvd
September 30, 2021 12:58 pm

Sweden has plenty of nuclear and hydro
Norway is 98% hydro.

To bed B
Reply to  Willem Post
September 30, 2021 1:27 pm

Thanks for wiping the smile off of my face.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
September 30, 2021 8:55 am

There is a South Park episode where the town is threatened by a cloud of “Smug”.

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
September 30, 2021 10:57 am

UK SUFFERS FREEZING LOWS AND RARE SEPTEMBER SNOWS, SEVERE EARLY-SEASON SNOWSTORM STRIKES ICELAND, + “UNSEASONAL SNOW” KILLS TWO TREKKERS IN NORTHERN INDIA
September 30, 2021 Cap Allon
Northern Hemisphere snow cover is building early this season, just as a bout of historically low solar activity predicts…
 
CORRECT CLIMATE PREDICTIONS PUBLISHED IN 2002 AND 2013
 
TOLD YOU SO, 8 YEARS AGO.
 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1130954
 
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA, OCTOBER 31, 2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
_______________________
 
… AND WE NAILED MOST OF IT IN 2002:
 
Well, there is the perfect Trifecta – my work here is done:
 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/26/europe-is-switching-back-to-coal-to-survive-bleak-winter/#comment-3352569
__________________________

THE ABILITY TO PREDICT IS THE BEST OBJECTIVE MEANS OF ASSESSING SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE, AND THE GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISTS HAVE NO PREDICTIVE TRACK RECORD – THEY HAVE BEEN 100% WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING AND NOBODY SHOULD BELIEVE THESE FRAUDSTERS – ABOUT ANYTHING!

ATheoK
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 2, 2021 6:28 pm

UK SUFFERS FREEZING LOWS AND RARE SEPTEMBER SNOWS, SEVERE EARLY-SEASON SNOWSTORM STRIKES ICELAND

Looks like the gore effect is ramping up for lots of fun at COP26!
Perhaps someone can put together a stand selling warm coats?

Coats that have printed across the back, “I froze my buns off at COP26!”. Or substitute other short words for buns.

Robert of Texas
September 29, 2021 10:21 pm

Once again, unreliable intermittent power sources are revealing their true costs. I sure hope people in Texas are paying attention.

Michael S. Kelly
September 29, 2021 10:35 pm

But solar and wind are now far, far cheaper than coal ever was or ever could be (see griff). So this can’t be.

They’re just cry babies.

MARTIN BRUMBY
Reply to  Michael S. Kelly
September 29, 2021 11:06 pm

Quite correct, Michael.

And if we just hurry up and build lots more whirligigs and moonbeam catching farms and all drive Teslas, soon we will reach Nirvana.

They will even pay us a fortune just for using more of their wonderful carbon free electricity and burning super (cheap-to -produce) hydrogen!

How lucky we are to all be under Boris’s sheltering wing!

Nick Graves
Reply to  MARTIN BRUMBY
September 30, 2021 12:13 am

Is that why Kurt Cobain wrote ‘Lithium?’

I thought it was about mental illness. Oh hang on…

Will there be enough lithium for Our Great Leaders?

John Law
Reply to  MARTIN BRUMBY
September 30, 2021 4:04 am

With the help of Bidet, the porcelain POTUS!

griff
Reply to  Michael S. Kelly
September 30, 2021 12:46 am

yep.

subsidy regimes from the past ending, new projects subsidy free.

The problem? fossil fuel natural gas.

Oldseadog
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:56 am

griff, please explain why/how fossil fuel natural gas is a “problem”.

Joao Martins
Reply to  Oldseadog
September 30, 2021 2:36 am

I gess he will say it is too cheap and so disrupts the competition with “cheaper” renewables… and so the solution for the “problem” is an artificial increase of the price of fossil fuel natural gas with more taxes…

Bryan A
Reply to  Joao Martins
September 30, 2021 7:35 pm

It’s also reliable which negates the need to transform society and eliminate capitalism

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Oldseadog
September 30, 2021 5:05 am

Griff rarely engages in discussions, to explain and defend his pronouncements. Neither will any of his fellow travelers. They can’t defend the indefensible.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Oldseadog
September 30, 2021 6:22 am

He won’t answer any question he perceives to be difficult, to any degree!!!

Vuk
Reply to  Alan the Brit
September 30, 2021 8:58 am

Griffo is not a real person, it is a Microsoft generated low AI bot, more ‘minus’ scores it gets more it’s AI algorithm moves down the scale into negative territory (it started from zero), or to put it in human terms, more stupid it gets.
I suggest we start giving it ‘plus’ scores, it might crush the software and blow its hardware fuse.

Richard (the cynical one)
Reply to  Oldseadog
September 30, 2021 6:51 am

griff doesn’t, won’t, can’t explain. To try would shatter the illusion, ruin the effect. Better to just toss out unfounded statements and allegations like random word grenades and hope the damage gets done.

james Fosser
Reply to  Oldseadog
September 30, 2021 3:32 pm

Oldseadog. Contesting Griff? As someone said, ”If you argue with a fool onlookers might not be able to tell the difference”.

James Schrumpf
Reply to  Oldseadog
September 30, 2021 4:52 pm

And which renewable projects are “subsidy free”?

Alan Millar
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 4:02 am

Hi Griff

You have not answered my previous posts, so here it is again. Indeed I might post it after each of your comments until you do reply. Might be good for you to realise that each time someone reads your posts they get to see this at the same time…………………………….

“I can see that you are fond of deferring to ‘authority’, obviously this saves you the trouble of doing some logical thinking for yourself.

Let’s just review the situation, CO2 has been increasing and temperatures have been rising, there is a recognised mechanism for this, the Greenhouse Effect. I accept that, all other things being equal, a rise in CO2 leads to higher radiative forcing on the Earth and therefore higher temperatures.

However, this depends on ‘all other things being equal’. So have they been? A pretty key question don’t you think?

What is the main component of the Greenhouse Effect? Well that is overwhelmingly water vapour. CO2 is only a minor player compared to this.
So you would think any scientist worth his salt would have looked at trends in atmospheric water vapour over the so called problem period. I think that would be hard to disagree with, what do you think?

Well if you bother to look at such a thing some scientists have looked at it. Also and this is right up your deferring to authority strasse, it is the World Metrological Organisation, through their Global Atmosphere Watch programme.
Mind you, it seems very few other scientists have been minded to look at atmospheric water vapour, probably because of this statement in the report.

…………………….
“It is impossible for us to control directly the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere since water is found everywhere on our planet – it covers 71% of Earth’s surface.”
……………………………………..

Not much money to be made studying something we have no control over is there?

So what did they find has been happening to water vapour over the so called problem period?
………………………………

“Research has found that a 10% decrease in stratospheric water vapour between 2000 and 2009 acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over this time period”
” More data suggest that stratospheric water vapour probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s. These findings show that stratospheric water vapour is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.”
………………………….

They also say.
………………………………..
“A recent study showed that reanalysis data on high-altitude atmospheric water vapour, critical for the greenhouse effect, are not as accurate as previously thought. Water vapour data for the UTLS region from these reanalysis data sets have been compared to water vapour data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the AURA satellite. These satellite data have not been used in the production of these reanalysis, so they represent an independent data set well suited for validation. The study found that the reanalyses differed quite a lot from the MLS observations, overestimating the annual global mean water vapour in the upper troposphere by about 150%”
…………………………………

Oh dear, what does this mean for the modellers who have been pugging this data into their models?
The report states……..
………………………………

“More accurate data with better geographical coverage is needed. The observed temporal trends in stratospheric water vapour are poorly understood and this demonstrates our lack of understanding of how water vapour enters the stratosphere.”
……………………………………………

Oh dear again! To finally put the cherry on the cake.
……………………………

“The models that are used to predict future climate use reanalysis data to verify that the current climate is modelled correctly. The lack of accurate water vapour data in the important UTLS region will therefore limit the ability of these models to predict future climate.”
…………………………………

Of course the WMO couldn’t help themselves when they said…………
 “Research has found that a 10% decrease in stratospheric water vapour between 2000 and 2009 acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over this time period”
What they should have said is that ‘CO2 rose and water vapour fell and temperatures decreased’.

https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2000/to:2009/compress:12/plot/uah6/from:2000/to:2009/trend

Best not to set the sheeple thinking, eh Griff?

So what do you think Griff? (do you think or are you currently going La La La in your head.) Do you think you can put WMO into the sceptical column?

I bet you wish you could claim that atmospheric water vapour and atmospheric CO2 are in lockstep with each other but the report kiboshes that as it states water vapour fell between 2000 and 2009 whilst CO2 continued its upward march, so there is no lockstep relationship between CO2 and water vapour they can alter independently of each other.

So what do you think Griff?
Water vapour rose and temperatures increased and CO2 rose at the same time. Water vapour fell and CO2 rose and temperatures fell.
Given that water vapour is by far the stronger of the two in the greenhouse effect which would you think was responsible for the vast majority of the temperature rise?

Care to give an opinion based on logic not faith?

Now this might involve thinking for yourself, alternatively you can just defer to authority and accept the WMO report, which completely undermines any reliance you can put on the model predictions.

https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/observing-water-vapour

Gerry, England
Reply to  Alan Millar
September 30, 2021 5:33 am

Tumbleweed blows through Griffsville as silence reigns.

Mind you he could have a migraine after all your inconvenient facts and is having a lie down.

Robertvd
Reply to  Alan Millar
September 30, 2021 8:56 am

Don’t forget we live in an Ice Age. The recent 3 Ma have been the coldest of the last 200 Ma.

Alba
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 4:28 am

A while ago griff made the comment that the Daily Express is for working class OAPs over 80.
A survey by MORI in 2004 found that 31 percent of the readers of the Daily Express are aged 65 and over. It found that 55 percent of the readers of the Daily Express are middle class.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/publication/1970-01/sri_you_are_what_you_read_042005.pdf
Is this an indication that griff wants all his comments to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 4:38 am

No Griff, the problem is cold. Warmer is better, much better. Sent to you from the central west coast of Florida where today’s high temperature is forecast to be in the upper 80s F. No need for any heating fuel at all. Now that is truly zero fossil fuel use!!!!

Rich Davis
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 4:39 am

While I hate to see the innocent suffer with you, griff, it seems obvious that you will never recognize the obvious until there are long periods of cold darkness and deaths from exposure that can’t be hand-waved away.

You always told us that the failures of unreliables are easily predicted so that backup systems can ramp up. So have fun easily predicting blackouts that result from the policies you support that restrict gas and coal supplies. You want to eliminate fossil fuel which you implicitly acknowledge to be necessary to back up wind and solar. When the unreliables fail to deliver and you predict it a day in advance, what good will that do when there is no backup?

And what exactly is all this economic destruction supposed to be avoiding? A slightly more pleasant summer and a slightly less harsh winter?

In which time period would you prefer to live your life?
[__] Benign low CO2 1675-1750
[__] “Dangerous” CO2 1950-2025

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 6:18 am

With that logic in mind, why would anyone fill the UK NG storage to prior norms of capacity if they know it’s no longer economic? Regardless of other issues this year like weather or infrastructure the same question on storage holds each year going forward and why there is any difference in outcome. Place the moratorium on storage and let’s find out.

Peter Plail
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 7:12 am

I don’t understand why any of you bother with Griff. If everyone ignored him (it?) then he would suffocate from lack of the oxygen of publicity.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Peter Plail
September 30, 2021 7:34 am

Error must be revealed for truth to prevail.

meab
Reply to  Peter Plail
September 30, 2021 9:21 am

griffter fills the role of Simplicio in Galileo’s dialog on the tides. Simplicio argued fecklessly for Ptolemy’s “accepted” science but was then shredded by actual observations. griffter, like Simplicio, is too clueless to figure out that he’s a tool who is actually helping to convince people that they should be more open to climate realism.

DCE
Reply to  Peter Plail
October 1, 2021 4:33 am

Or he/she/it would just change their identity and continue flinging the same poo.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 8:48 am

The only “problem” is the LACK OF “fossil fuel natural gas.” As in, you NEED “fossil fuel natural gas” to avoid small inconveniences like starving to death and freezing to death in the dark.

There isn’t a “subsidy free” kilowatt of “wind and solar” power anywhere – they are “mandate and subsidy farming” of the rich at the government trough and nothing more. Your beliefs show you to be an utter fool.

Cosmic
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 9:55 am

You are a naive twit. Good lord.

Gerard O'Dowd
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 11:53 am

Ideological blindness+Technological Ignorance+Unpredictable environmental stress+ Inadequate structural resilience or power supply redundancy = Societal Catastrophe

Lrp
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:02 pm

Shovels anyone?

Andy Pattullo
Reply to  griff
October 1, 2021 3:52 pm

Surely you’ve had enough to eat buy now. You’ve been “out to lunch” for so long.

ATheoK
Reply to  griff
October 2, 2021 6:48 pm

“yep.

subsidy regimes from the past ending, new projects subsidy free.”

And the idiocy continues as giff ignores the huge fact that fossil fuels are significant tax revenue streams for local, state and Federal government.

Paying significant tax sums destroys any claim that subsidies for fossil fuels exist.
Instead, fossil fuel taxes pay for taxes which wind and solar get exemptions, i.e. subsidies.

Fossil fuel subsidy claims by giff are fallacious and meant solely to distract from the article and discussion.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  Michael S. Kelly
September 30, 2021 8:11 am

Oh, they are cheaper!

You just have to guess when that power will be available and schedule life around that…

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Shanghai Dan
September 30, 2021 8:58 am

The inconvenient part being the death that gets written in to the periods in between those times when “power” is “available.” D’oh!

Alexy Scherbakoff
September 29, 2021 10:40 pm

Be careful what you wish for. There’s always a loophole when you make a deal with the devil. I have no sympathy.

Ed Fox
Reply to  Alexy Scherbakoff
September 29, 2021 11:02 pm
Reply to  Alexy Scherbakoff
September 30, 2021 12:25 am

Ah! Gurdjieff’s ‘sly man’, who made a pact with the devill that he could have his soul, once dead, in exchange for worldly success.

When the time came the devil held out his hand, but the sly man laughed and said ‘no way’ , The Devil said ‘but you proimised’ and the sly man said ‘but I was lying’…

bonbon
Reply to  Alexy Scherbakoff
September 30, 2021 6:12 am

BON-BON — A TALE.

BY EDGAR A. POE.

https://www.eapoe.org/works/tales/bonbona.htm

Pierre Bon-Bon did not make a deal with devil, who by the way had green glasses!

Iain Reid
September 29, 2021 11:13 pm

this illustrates that the economist theory that increasing the price of something reduces it’s consumption. Fine except that the CO2 tax is applied to essential commodities like gas and coal and it penalises everyone.
Unless there is a viable alternative to what you are taxing (and there is not) it is a bad idea and should be scrapped.

Reply to  Iain Reid
September 30, 2021 6:27 am

It penalizes the middle class, not the wealthy political elites. They still have their private jets, yachts, mediterranean villas, and Swiss ski chalets.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
September 30, 2021 9:00 am

And they benefit from the “renewable” boondoggles, which are another way of transferring wealth to the “elites” that have the cash laying around to “invest” in what would otherwise be worthless.

Chaswarnertoo
September 29, 2021 11:35 pm

Daddy, daddy, what did we use for light before candles? Electricity, son, then the watermelons took over…

Joao Martins
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
September 30, 2021 2:39 am

Candles????

Most certainly made with vegetable fat!

jtom
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
September 30, 2021 7:31 am

I’ve had this idea for a short story set in the not far-off future. It is of a dystopian world, filled with poverty, misery, and suffering. People are living as they did eons ago. There are stories of past, great civilizations, but no one alive understands what happened, only that it had something to do with those acres of glass shards in the fields, and tall towers with blades that sometimes turned in the wind.

A little girl comes running to her father and says, “Daddy, come! Quick! I’ve discovered black rocks that will burn! And they get really hot!”

And that marks the beginning of another great civilization.

RickWill
September 30, 2021 12:00 am

Australia has thermal coal available for shipment but lock in a price fast. To say the price is skyrocketing is an understatement. More accurately, the price trend is vertical:https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price?op=1

Now up to USD208/tonne. This is doing wonders for Australia’s balance of trade.

Dean
Reply to  RickWill
September 30, 2021 4:42 am

That is the spot price only, which not all coal is sold at. To help financing of projects and to lock in some certainty of cash flow most mines will sell about 70% of coal under short to medium term contracts.

Spot prices do eventually impact on contract prices though.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Dean
September 30, 2021 6:19 am

More trades would occur at spot price in these market conditions.

Cosmic
Reply to  RickWill
September 30, 2021 10:08 am

Well no one can do anything in Australia because 1 person got sick, so not need for fuel.

auto
Reply to  Cosmic
September 30, 2021 1:45 pm

Some cobber in Cairns got a cough?

Auto

Klem
September 30, 2021 12:19 am

“Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.” – Barack Obama.

This is what the Left promised, now they are delivering. Stop voting for the Left, folks.

Ron Long
Reply to  Klem
September 30, 2021 3:33 am

Also stop joining their circular firing squads, let them do it to themselves.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Klem
September 30, 2021 8:22 am

Listen to Klem!!!

fretslider
September 30, 2021 12:19 am

I’m stocking up on wood and coal for this winter

The signs are it won’t be one of the MOs warmer ones

Gas will be more of a last resort

Enginer01
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2021 3:27 am

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, reputedly 80% correct, predicts a long, cold winter.

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

Peter W
Reply to  Enginer01
September 30, 2021 4:38 am

Perhaps they have studied the Milankovitch Cycles, and remember that conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn last December, followed shortly by the “Texas cold”.

TonyG
Reply to  Peter W
September 30, 2021 12:03 pm

They explain their “methods” at the back of each issue. This year’s explanation had a lot about Solar Cycles.

September 30, 2021 12:30 am

He who would persist in his folly, would become wise.

The consequences of policies so glibly announced and so under analysed, will become obvious.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 30, 2021 4:48 am

To all but griff

Joel
September 30, 2021 12:32 am

The wind has been blowing very hard in the UK for the last several days. NG prices in the USA dropped 7% yesterday due to a forecast of a warm October. So it is not all bad news in the energy world.

fretslider
Reply to  Joel
September 30, 2021 12:38 am

It blew for 2 days – it isn’t windy now

And it’s cold

Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2021 1:42 am

it is where the wind farms are.

Wind delivering about 30% of demand. Not a lot being imported from France Holland and Belgium.

But it’s cold today – very cold. Global warming not working.

More wind and storms due as well….

So for now, all is OK with The Leccytricity.

It wont last.

weathermap.png
fretslider
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 30, 2021 2:10 am

 Global warming not working”

It must have sunk to the bottom of the oceans again.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 30, 2021 5:36 am

High winds is when the whirlygigs get turned off because they have trouble working when it gets, erm, windy. Perhaps they should be callled “breeze turbines”

auto
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 30, 2021 1:50 pm

Solar just reached 2GW input to the system today in the UK.
For a couple of hours.

Auto.

Ian Johnson
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2021 2:06 am

It is blowing in the UK, alas. 12.45GW output, 38.43% of demand. From Gridwatch Templar.

Joel
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2021 4:50 am

Right now wind is supplying over 12 GW in the UK.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Joel
September 30, 2021 9:03 am

But still, just barely 50% of nameplate. If this were nuclear, gas or coal, people would wonder why the system was so broken.

griff
Reply to  Joel
September 30, 2021 12:47 am

Yes… coal dropped back out of UK energy mix.

Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:51 am

But not out of the French or German energy mixes eh?
France a net importer of electricity today

M Courtney
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 2:31 am

But coal is still needed as backup so it’s not going away. Next time we need it the costs or keeping it around now will need to be paid for.
Intermittent energy is expensive.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 5:37 am

Bur why was it needed? Oh yes, because windmills were useless when the wind died.

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 7:53 am

Which is a very bad thing for consumers, Griff. No matter how many wind turbines are built, there is zero electric energy production when the wind dies or is blowing too strong. Governmental policies to destroy and/or raise the costs of FF and nuclear generation mean shortages and price spikes when their generation is needed. These are the real-world consequences of allowing English Lit. majors to dictate energy policy.

Real people are being hurt right now by green propaganda affecting energy policies, Griff. Real people are dying from energy poverty right now. And there is no energy for a socialist government to give them for “free” right now.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 30, 2021 8:35 am

“These are the real-world consequences of allowing English Lit. majors to dictate energy policy.”

Good way to put it. 🙂

Cosmic
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 10:12 am

That’ll make it colder out! You betcha! (ignorant fool)

Rich Davis
Reply to  Joel
September 30, 2021 4:53 am

Oh yeah a “warm” October. Tomorrow’s low for Connecticut is forecast to be 39F (4C)

griff
September 30, 2021 12:45 am

Coal already dropped out of UK power supply again

Germany got ‘only’ 43% of its power from renewables on first half 2021… down from 48% last year. Hardly a disaster.

This is just unfounded alarmism, isn’t it?

angech
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 12:59 am

And It’s Not Even Winter! Europe’s Energy Supply Debacle Already Here: Painful Prices, Shortages, Blackouts.
Missing one small word. Panic.

And It’s Not Even Winter! Europe’s Energy Supply Debacle Already Here: Painful Prices, Shortages, Blackouts and Panic!
Got to get a lot worse before it can change and get better .
Let’s hope it is quick.

Rich Davis
Reply to  angech
September 30, 2021 4:59 am

Sorry, if you want to break through the magical religious beliefs currently in vogue, you’re going to need to endure a long period of painful sacrifice. So I can only hope that it hits hard and in a protracted enough way to jar the majority awake.

fretslider
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:00 am

Zzzz

Last edited 16 days ago by fretslider
LdB
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:39 am

You tell them Griff go no fossil fuels today, stop waiting … we support you mate.

Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:53 am

Germany didnt get 43% of its power from renewables. Most of that power was exported to countries with hydroelectrity, at well below cost. Until the wind dropped and the sun went in, when the lignite and nuclear power staions kept Germany’s grid up.

Ian Johnson
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 2:08 am

…and when this figure continues to decrease?

Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 2:45 am

Not alarming but…

griff, have you ever considered that you are feasting too early? Wait for the statistics of the second half of 2021…

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 3:34 am

Not alarmed, more like gleeful.

Bryan A
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 6:38 am

W.O.W…
Germany got 57% of its power from carbon intensive Non-renewable energy generation???

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 8:00 am

Griff, please stop opining on subjects for which you have no knowledge or expertise. It doesn’t matter the percentage of energy provided by unreliables; when the power is not there when needed ordinary people suffer and die.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 8:16 am

That’s a 10% collapse in delivery. That’s an apocalypse!

Cosmic
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 10:13 am

Is it colder out yet? Am I safe to take off my 3 masks?

Ted
Reply to  griff
September 30, 2021 1:38 pm

Factories already closed in England. Electricity prices are triple what they were when renewables were 10% of the supply in Germany. It’s already a disaster just for that, and we arern’t even to the time of year with peak energy demand. Dropping coal and increasing renewables are now the direct cause of long term suffering for hundreds of times as many people than were affected by the short term flooding you claimed were so important.

Peta of Newark
September 30, 2021 12:55 am

Not just Europe energy…
Headline:”Chip shortage: A holiday shopping guide for a season scant on semiconductors
From Techrepublic – am a little disappointed with their emphasis of cheap nasty tat but hey ho.
How many of us know (intimately), girls like Princess Nut Nutz – the ones who are ever-ready to level a charge of ‘unreasonable behaviour’ – the definition of which being:
Not supplying the amount or quality of tat that they think they’re due
Don’t we just know, and Boris/Nutz (##) is the classic example, they go on ‘baby strike’ first so as to ‘drop a hint’

## Still in their ‘honeymoon period’ and making babies – how long before the booze derails it – as it has for Boris ???? many times before.
While Boris derails the UK and encourages/coerces/threatens the Rest of the World into doing the same.

Does this story mesh with the one we had recently about Chinese blackouts and power shortages, supposedly caused by them ‘reducing emissions

Because the manufacture of silicon chips, especially really big ones is far and away THE most energy intensive business us humans have (so far) devised..
and by a very very long way too..

Is that what’s happened/happening – our convictions of

  • never betterness
  • technology will solve everything
  • and a fascination with ‘all things shiny

…….has actually crashed China

OMG: has Boris ‘derailed China’ too – or did legions of Boris lookalikes, copycats and impersonators do it – I think we all know who they are.

…..and they will deny doing so to their dying day.

ain’t that just beautiful

Last edited 16 days ago by Peta of Newark
Jock
September 30, 2021 1:02 am

And the sun in Scotland says it is already snowing. Could be a cauld winter.

auto
Reply to  Jock
September 30, 2021 2:06 pm

Scotland
Home to the COP Boondoggle 26.
unlikely to be a power cut – I assume that LOTS of diesel generators have found their way to Glasgow . . . .

Just in case!

Auto

SAMURAI
September 30, 2021 1:03 am

“Smart people learn from their mistakes, Wise people learn from other’s mistakes.”

All EU countries knew from witnessing Germany’s and Denmark’s disastrous rush to replace fossil fuel and nuclear energy with wind and solar, that it would soon lead to massive increases energy costs, and create brownouts and blackouts, and insufficient power supplies…..but, alas, being good little Leftists, they made the same exact idiotic mistakes and are now suffering the same fate,….

In the immortal words of Lefty Joe Biden, “Spending $3.5 trillion will cost zero, I repeat, zero dollars.”….

This is the world in which we now live…

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  SAMURAI
September 30, 2021 4:06 am

The left can’t count.

R Taylor
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
September 30, 2021 6:15 am

Oh they can count all right, and the biggest thing they count on is that their sheeple won’t.

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
September 30, 2021 6:40 am

the can and do lie with abandon.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
September 30, 2021 8:44 am

Just assume if their lips are moving, they are lying to you. That will serve you well.

SAMURAI
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
September 30, 2021 6:46 am

According to Leftist theology, math and the scientific method are racist constructs…

https://twitter.com/byronyork/status/1283372233730203651?ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.miamiherald.com%2Fnews%2Fnation-world%2Fnational%2Farticle244309587.html

This partially explains why America is now ranked 30th in the world in math and science in standardized test scores, but, you guessed, according to Leftists, standardized test are also….racist…..

As Leftists are fond of chanting , “HEY, HEY HO, HO, WESTERN CIV HAS GOTTA GO!”…, and they have obliterated most it; sad.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  SAMURAI
September 30, 2021 8:46 am

“HEY, HEY HO, HO, WESTERN CIV HAS GOTTA GO!”

That’s what the radical Left has in mind.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  SAMURAI
September 30, 2021 8:43 am

“In the immortal words of Lefty Joe Biden, “Spending $3.5 trillion will cost zero, I repeat, zero dollars.”….”

Biden did say that, didn’t he. Nancy Pelosi said the same thing, too. I think that’s a new Democrat talking point. One of the more “divorced from reality” talking points they have come up with lately.

The Democrats are crazy. We are not being led by smart or wise people. Our leaders are in another category.

September 30, 2021 1:36 am

But we are saved. The climate crisis is now being controlled by the policies of our wise and glorious leaders.

September 30, 2021 1:49 am

Just heard that over 30 nuclear power companies who applied to exhibit at COP26 have been denied.

The one technology that actually could ‘save the planet’ – if it actually needed saving – has been de-platformed and cancelled.

fretslider
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 30, 2021 2:12 am

Their only interest is in keeping the ‘alleged’ problem going. Solutions would erode their position and influence.

Last edited 16 days ago by fretslider
Archer
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 30, 2021 5:04 am

Can’t have them spreading misinformation about power generation.

Clarky of Oz
September 30, 2021 2:05 am

Can’t they just burn the CO2 certificates in DRAX. Seems to me that this is all they are good for.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
September 30, 2021 2:31 am

If Germany is burning their lignite for electricity then they are also increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere, YAY! This is the silver lining to the current CC in northern Europe. I live in far southern Europe and worry that the mess north of me will seep down. It is already getting chilly here, 18 C inside my house this morning and I am starting to see plumes of wood smoke from my neighbor’s chimneys. Alas, we can’t generate electricity to power the computer or lights from our fireplaces and wood stoves.

ren
September 30, 2021 3:58 am

What does the zonal circulation look like during the 25th solar cycle? Depending on the solar wind spikes, it will slow down (as it is now) when the solar wind speed decreases and accelerate when there is a solar wind speed spike (as happened on September 28). Overall, the solar wind in this cycle is weak and does not cause strong geomagnetic storms.comment image
The next spike in geomagnetic activity is predicted for October 1.
It is likely that the magnetic field of the solar wind causes a type of ripple in the Earth’s atmosphere.
This wave, like the aurora borealis, is very close to a circle.comment image

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ren
September 30, 2021 8:52 am

So this atmospheric ripple caused by the Sun starts out as a circle when the charged particles enter the Earth’s atmosphere, and then this circle of wind propagates outward across the northern hemisphere? Does it push the jet stream around?

ren
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 30, 2021 11:12 am

Yes, the magnetic field of the solar wind pushes ozone out causing the boundary between the north and south air masses to take on a latitudinal shape. The temperature difference is pronounced and the jet stream accelerates and aligns latitudinally.

ren
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 30, 2021 11:34 am

The recent jump in solar wind speed is very evident in the increase in easterly wind along the equatorial Pacific. The subsurface temperature is already well below average, but stronger winds were needed for the anomaly to occur at the surface.
Index Niño 3.4 began to drop noticeably as the solar wind speed increased. Notice that now the decline has stalled again as the solar wind speed dropped.comment image

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ren
September 30, 2021 2:24 pm

Thanks, ren, for giving me a lot of things to think about. One of these days that light bulb will go off in my head. Hope so, anyway.

ren
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 1, 2021 2:36 am

Tom Abbott I invite you to visit my website.
https://www.facebook.com/Sunclimate-719393721599910/

ren
Reply to  ren
October 1, 2021 2:31 am

The Great Barrier Reef may still be doing very well, thanks to increased upwelling in the Niño 4 area.comment image
This area is also seeing the impact of increased easterly winds during the increase in geomagnetic activity. I predict further declines due to another jump in solar wind speed. Temperatures will drop even more in November as sea ice begins to melt in the south of Pacific.

Alba
September 30, 2021 4:34 am

I have a gas-fired boiler for my central heating. If gas supplies run out I will use an electric heater. In fact I will need to use several electric heaters, just to make sure that all my rooms are warm. This will be just dandy as my electricity comes from largely ‘clean’ souces – so I am told. And if we all do this I’m sure that the wind will blow enough and the sun will shine enough to keep us all nice and warm. That’s right isn’t it, griff?

fretslider
Reply to  Alba
September 30, 2021 5:01 am

Get yourself the patent griff off-grid power generator

Get a bicycle with a dynamo fitted and lift it so the back wheel is clear of the ground

Pedal hard.

With an hairdryer attached you should be able to perm or blow fry an egg or two.

Dave Fair
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2021 8:10 am

It would take Lance Armstrong and plenty of steroids to get enough power!

Meab
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2021 9:08 am

The average human can produce only 100 watts. Lance Armstrong on performance enhancing drugs could produce only ~400 watts – not nearly enough to power a hairdryer on high heat which needs >1000 W.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Meab
September 30, 2021 4:07 pm

And that 400W number is usually a 1-hour rating, go longer and the max goes down logarithmically with time.

Climate believer
September 30, 2021 4:37 am

EU Natural Gas Import Price is currently at 15.49, (USD per Million Btu) up from 12.51 last month and up from 2.86 a year ago.

This is a change of 23.84% from last month and 441.3% from a year ago.

In France the price of gas has increased by 57% since January, and it will increase another 15% from November. We are also facing another 12.6% increase in electricity prices.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Climate believer
September 30, 2021 6:26 am

I don’t think the climate shaman are listening.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Climate believer
September 30, 2021 8:11 am

Gas price hikes are no problem. Just nationalize the industry.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Climate believer
September 30, 2021 9:00 am

All those price increases are going to be cutting into every nation’s GDP.

The price of gasoline in the U.S. has increased by one dollar since Biden took office. That one dollar increase means a GDP reduction of about 1.25 percent for the United States.

And gasoline is only one of a long list of products that have increased in price. As prices go up, our GDP goes down, and the poorest among us are the hardest hit. Biden said he would only tax the rich, but he is taxing every single man, woman and child in the United States with the inflation his policies are causing.

Biden is a disaster for the United States and the world.

TonyG
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 30, 2021 12:33 pm

“And gasoline is only one of a long list of products that have increased in price.”

Dollar Tree “Everything is One Dollar” just announced they’re going to start pricing stuff over $1.00

“and the poorest among us are the hardest hit”

See above. Who shops at Dollar Tree?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TonyG
September 30, 2021 2:28 pm

One pundit on tv thought that this ought to wake up the poor to what the Biden administration is doing to them. He thought a large number of people are customers of Dollar Tree and they are going to notice that things don’t sell for a dollar anymore at the Dollar Tree Store.

TonyG
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 30, 2021 2:35 pm

We can hope, Tom. But I don’t have a lot of faith left in the American people to see through BS anymore.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TonyG
October 1, 2021 3:58 am

I think we are going to see whether or not a majority of Americans can see through the BS when we have the next election. Then we will know if we are in serious trouble or not.

I have a feeling there is going to be a huge backlash against the Democrats when people get a chance to vote and show what they think about the situation. But we’ll just have to wait and see.

ResourceGuy
September 30, 2021 6:09 am

What a great time for COP26! /sarc

This makes the COVID19 Olympics in Tokyo look good.

September 30, 2021 6:18 am

It’s all going as planned.

DMacKenzie
September 30, 2021 6:52 am

“….the now higher price of CO2 emission certificates…..”
So who gets the money ? The beneficiaries of the cash are the ones whose intentions are in need of pragmatic consideration.

Eric Clanton
September 30, 2021 7:09 am

But but but COVID. It’s Covid’s fault. CNN article this am blames everything but what’s actually causing this, the green energy cult.

John K. Sutherland
September 30, 2021 7:12 am

In your last subtitle, ‘Phaseout of coal, nuclear worsening the problem’ You definitely need a comma after the word, ‘Nuclear’, to bring the meaning in line with what you intend. At least I hope you do, or else you are saying Nuclear is part of the problem, rather than the ‘phaseout’ of nuclear.

Dave Fair
Reply to  John K. Sutherland
September 30, 2021 8:14 am

Ampersands (&) were made for situations needing brevity.

Rusty
September 30, 2021 7:37 am

And this is with wind producing the highest power output in 6 months along with demand not being that high.

September 30, 2021 8:09 am

Current weather forecasts give a reasonable chance that COP26 in Glasgow will take place under a covering of snow and with possibly freezing temperatures unusually early. We can but hope …

Posa
September 30, 2021 8:10 am

Russia has dumped billions and billions into Nordstream2 despite intense US sabotage of the project. All that’s left is the paperwork and the gas gets turned on full blast. Simple as that.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Posa
September 30, 2021 8:18 am

Posa, your ignorance and lack of critical thinking skills are manifest.

Posa
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 30, 2021 1:37 pm

Thanks for your impressive insights

Dave Fair
Reply to  Posa
September 30, 2021 6:04 pm

Then act on those insights. You will be a better person.

Posa
Reply to  Dave Fair
October 1, 2021 8:49 am

You can’t handle the truth

Dave Fair
Reply to  Posa
October 1, 2021 2:44 pm

The truth is that Russian gas can be turned off at any time for political reasons (see China vs Australia). Free market capitalism it ain’t.

Olen
September 30, 2021 9:37 am

Evidently CO2 emission certificates are doing their job of reducing CO2. The problem are certificates contributing to the erosion of quality of life and maybe life itself. And that is just one of the problems.

Cosmic
September 30, 2021 9:53 am

It takes pain to make change in democratic societies. And I suspect this pain will advance that change. But the leftist creeps will do all they can to continue the pain and misery of energy shortages.

September 30, 2021 12:40 pm

The entire Net Zero project is an entirely imaginary solution to a non-existent problem. The Green New Deal establishment academic “Consensus ” that increasing CO2 will cause dangerous warming is typical of the post -modern left wing anti-capitalist nonsense that passes for U S ,UK and European science these days.
Here is the Abstract to my paper “Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals” which is on the web at
https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

” Abstract
This paper begins by reviewing the relationship between CO2 and Millennial temperature cycles. CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. Solar activity as represented by the Oulu cosmic ray count is here correlated with the Hadsst3 temperatures and is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales. The Millennial pattern is projected forwards to 2037. Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, and not merely coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus” that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to human civilization is clearly untenable. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy.  We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur. “

It would be helpful if WUWT readers could share this post and comment with their Representatives in Congress first like Manchin to try to permanently stop the just proposed FERC controls on fracking, oil production and refining and also to call for a National Independent Commission to conduct an independent re-examination of the hopelessly flawed “science” which drives the dangerous warming meme. For example the UAH 6.0 TLT satellite data show that there has been no net warming for the last 17 years and Arctic sea ice is now only the 12th lowest in the recent record.

Willem Post
September 30, 2021 12:56 pm

You mean, the flock of RE chickens is finally coming home to roost, all at once?
You don’t say.
What about all these RE NIRVANA promises? Gone with the wind?

Raw chicken for dinner, because of no electricity?
OK, better than no chicken at all, as during WW 2.

Why not have even more wind, solar, and batteries, so when the winds are bullshit for a few weeks, and the sun being bullshit anyway, except in Spain, you can really freeze in the dark, while being hungry, and tired from WALKING to empty stores.

LESSON: Screw around with fossil, in any way, and all hell is sure to break lose, as proven In Texas and California, etc.

Willem Post
Reply to  Willem Post
September 30, 2021 1:07 pm

In the US, we have RE idiots as well, plus they are supported by an idiot, stolen-election, almost 80-year-old President, who said (when he was not looking at his teleprompter), if we borrow $3.5 TRILLION, and piss it away on mostly social programs, including coddling about 2,000,000 “refugees” in 2021 (more in future years), it will cost us nothing.

Borrow from whom at no interest?

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Willem Post
September 30, 2021 4:12 pm
Willem Post
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
September 30, 2021 7:04 pm

Well, it is simple.

If what is left of his brain is over-stressed, he may go into touchy/ freely mode with little girls and boys, or whomever, or fall asleep in the Oval Office, as he did when the Israeli Prime Minister was sitting nearby.

Willem Post
Reply to  Willem Post
September 30, 2021 1:14 pm

Where is the Hydrogen economy when we need it?
Phase out fossil now (for window dressing), before it gets here, in a few decades, if ever?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Willem Post
October 1, 2021 8:23 am

It’s right next to the water burning engines on the back shelf.

Willem Post
September 30, 2021 1:11 pm

OK, guys, go easy on Griff.
He stayed naive, maybe from birth.
Just let him babble, but pay no attention to him, no matter what nuttiness he writes.

Kramer
September 30, 2021 2:52 pm

Trying to power a modern economy on intermittents (renewables) is a scheme only our enemies could love.

james Fosser
September 30, 2021 3:29 pm

When this article is talking of gas are they referring to petrol or gas gas?

Dave Fair
Reply to  james Fosser
September 30, 2021 6:05 pm

Flatulence.

Ted
Reply to  james Fosser
October 1, 2021 2:10 am

Natural gas. Not all of it gas gas as it is shipped liquified.

observa
September 30, 2021 9:29 pm

And you aint seen nothing yet-
Solar curtailment: You ain’t seen nothing yet | RenewEconomy

“Clearly the problem is growing more acute requiring longer-term solutions including a number of options considered by CAISO. One promising solution is to enlarge the physical size of the market, therefore increasing the diversity of the generation portfolio.
CAISO has been attempting to enlarge participation in the Energy Imbalance Market (EIM), a real- time market that allows participants outside of California – and non-CAISO stakeholders – to buy and sell energy to balance supply and demand in real-time.”

Welcome to the fallacy of composition: We’ll flog em our unreliables glut and they can back us up with their reliables when we need it.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  observa
October 1, 2021 8:39 am

I propose the following “program” to end the “renewables” lunacy.

  1. Disconnect California from the grid connections and make it produce its own energy.
  2. Whenever power production is exceeded by power demand, cut power to Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, Leonardo DiCaprio, Harrison Ford, and every other climate crusader hypocrite dumbass (who will also be prohibited from using generators and from leaving the state, if there when an outage starts, during the outage by any means).
  3. Rinse and repeat until all the climate crusaders admit wind and solar cannot provide our energy needs and end all support, financial, legislative or otherwise, for wind and solar “energy” (using the term loosely) projects.
John Culhane
October 2, 2021 1:15 pm

Russia Today could not resist ‘Putin’ in the boot to Germany.

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