Disaster Hits the New York Metropolitan Area. We Need to Do Better.

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

More people died last night in the New York area from the “remnants” of Hurricane Ida than over Louisiana and Mississippi as one of the most powerful hurricanes of the century made landfall on a low-lying coastal zone.  (Current count:  about two dozen in the NY area, about 8 in Louisiana)

Think about that.    And as I will suggest in this blog, we can do much better,  both in terms of forecasting and communicating serious weather threats.  There are investments and new policies that are needed.

Dramatic video of what happened last night

Heavy rain, flooding, and even tornadoes struck in a relatively narrow band stretching southwest-northeast from Pennsylvania and New Jersey, through New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts, as shown by a recent precipitation analysis by the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center for the 48-h ending 6 AM EDT  this morning (see below).

A fairly large area of more than 6 inches of rainfall, with some locations hitting 8-10 inches. 

 Much of that rain fell during short intense bursts of precipitation associated with thunderstorms.  Newark, NJ, experienced 3.24 inches in one hour, with NY Central Park hit by 3.15 inches in one hour.  Both are hourly records for those sites.

The intense convective (thunderstorm) nature of the rain is illustrated by a weather radar image at 9:50 PM EDT last night, with the red colors indicating extraordinarily high rainfall rates.


After landfall, Hurricane Ida transitioned into a tropical storm and then underwent extratropical transition in which it took on the characteristics of a midlatitude cyclone.  The National Weather Service sometimes calls the resulting storm a Post-Tropical Cyclone.But there was a real danger in this transition.
Extratropical cyclones have strong upward motion, often associated with frontal zones, where temperatures and winds change rapidly.  And tropical storms undergoing transition often entrain large amounts of tropical moisture that can result in heavy precipitation as the moist air is forced to rise by the storm circulation.  This moisture can be converted to rain very rapidly in strong thunderstorms/convection.This is exactly what happened last night.
Below is a map of sea level pressure and atmospheric moisture (called precipitable water) for 10 PM PDT last night; you can see the low-pressure center and the plume of moisture (green colors) moving in from the southwest.


To the east of the low center, there was a warm front, as indicated by the National Weather Service analysis for 8 PM EDT (indicated by the black half circles)


The warm front had warm, southerly winds on the south side and cooler, easterly winds on the north side, with the warm, moist, unstable air to the south forced to rise by the front, resulting in heavy convective showers to the north of the line.  That is why the intense precipitation paralleled the front.
The Forecast
My colleagues at the National Weather Service had warnings out much of yesterday for heavy precipitation and the potential for flash flooding, with a flash flood watch out more than a day ahead of time.

Our models were useful but had some issues in both intensity and position.  High resolution is critical for this kind of forecast for many reasons, including the convective (thunderstorm) nature of the heavy rainfall, and the sharp frontal boundary that helped produce the rain. 3-4 km grid spacing is a minimum that is viable.
The highest resolution model run by the National Weather Service several times a day is the HRRR model….the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, run with 3-km grid spacing.  Its total precipitation for a run starting at 8 AM on Wednesday for precipitation for the next day showed the band, but it was displaced a bit north and somewhat underplayed the precipitation intensity.

The National Weather Service also runs a small (7-8 member) ensemble of several high-resolution simulations (around 3-km grid spacing), called HREF  A statistically enhanced mean of these runs (starting at the same time) is shown below.  Better.


Everyone involved in numerical weather prediction knows what this country needs to get such forecasts correct:  a relatively large (30-50 member) high-resolution (3-km or better for the grid spacing) ensemble of forecasts that are carefully calibrated to give good probabilistic/uncertainty predictions.  
Committee after committee, workshop after workshop, have recommended this.  The National Weather Service’s own modeling experts say the same thing.  
But the investment is never made to do this.  This means acquiring the necessary computer resources and building the modeling/statistical post-processing system.   Very, very frustrating that this critical capability is pushed off into the future.  (Senator Cantwell please take this on!)
Communication
We obviously failed last night.  Around a dozen people died in flooded basements.   Many people took to the roads that were flooded out. Abandoned cars were everywhere.
There are two stages to the warning process based on time.  Yesterday, hours before heavy rain, it was clear that a serious event was in store and people had to be warned in the strongest terms to stay off the road and to prepare.
By late in the afternoon it was clear that a severe event was about to take place, and we needed to get the message to folks not only to stay off the road but to get out of low-lying basement apartments.  That did not happen.

Newark Airport
There is no reason why so many people had to die last night from an event we knew was coming and which we could watch unfold with weather radar and surface observations.

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Richard Page
Reply to  David Middleton
September 3, 2021 7:18 am

Yeah. My heart goes out to all of those people who lost family in this tragic weather event. However, calling it ‘Climate Change’ and ‘the new normal’ are just excuses to avoid the blame game. Throughout history, whenever clouds pass overhead there is a chance they’ll drop their load right where you’re standing – the bigger the cloud formation and the more heavily laden means more water falling out of the sky. This was a flash flood, not a biblical 40 days and nights of rain; something that has happened before and will again, but probably not very often. Cutting corners on building infrastructure because it’s cheaper and these things don’t happen often costs lives – we had similar problems in London though thankfully with fewer lives lost. It isn’t climate change – we’re building bigger cities with less capability for dealing with weather; build better infrastructure or put a roof over it.

Last edited 13 days ago by Richard Page
griff
Reply to  Richard Page
September 3, 2021 8:21 am

but it IS climate change and it IS the new normal – we have had 3 such events this summer in the N hemisphere.

The UK Met Office confirms an increase in extreme rain events and that UK is on average 6% wetter in the last 30 years, for example. a change, climate change, the new normal

MarkW
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 8:26 am

3 whole events in the entire northern hemisphere. Really.
Do you have any idea how big the northern hemisphere is?
The only thing unusual, was that there were only 3 such events.
BTW, similar events have happened 10’s of thousands of times in the past. So there was nothing unusual about these “3 events”.

6% wetter. Even if the records were actually good enough to prove such a small change, the odds are all you are seeing is the difference between the cold phase of the AMO and the warm phase of the AMO.

ATheoK
Reply to  MarkW
September 4, 2021 12:02 am

Nor does that sound like a Met Office type of analysis… More like one of adoring giffie’s trollop pals that are dishonest at number crunching.

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 8:42 am

Ever heard of frosts in France and in Brazil this year? Or do you live in an alternative reality? That would explain a lot ..

LdB
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 8:47 am

Crickets and no-one cared

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:26 am

A simple rhetorical question to griff, the simplistic:
If it (extreme rain events with associated unprecedented flooding) IS the new normal, as you claim, please explain the persistent droughts that are on-going in the western US and Canada, in eastern Greenland, across South America, in northern and southwestern Africa, and in northern Australia
(ref: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/5dceec104a384df094e65af12a274959/ )

No, in fact, I do not expect a cogent reply from you.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
September 3, 2021 9:46 am

I doubt it understands the question.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
September 3, 2021 10:55 am

Gah! He used the word “cogent”! I doubt griff owns a dictionary.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 3, 2021 11:07 pm

I suspect he’s lost his Thesaurus, & can’t find the words to explain how upset he is about it!!! ;-))

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
September 3, 2021 10:42 am

Now, now, you know dry/wet/hot/cold is all climate change in the thermageddonists world.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
September 3, 2021 8:00 pm

Simples. All weather events are the new normal. Next!

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:40 am

Griffy – predictable and delusional at the same time, that’s very efficient of you. Yes we are seeing brief heavy downpours occurring in different locations but I’ll go out on a limb and predict that annual precipitation will be more or less the same. In other words, we are seeing the exact same pattern as with warm days – we are seeing more warm days but the average temperature is more or less the same because we are also seeing many more cooler days. This is a repeating pattern Griffy, we’ve seen it before when we’ve had other El Nino or La Nina events. Now stop panicking dear, it’s just weather.
The problems occur with the build-up of infrastructure over the last 30 to 40 years. Imagine you built your house in the summer, only anticipating summer weather and then you had to deal with unexpected autumn and winter weather – it’d come as a real shock and you’d likely need to make a lot of modifications, wouldn’t you?

MarkW2
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:55 am

So IF this is the new normal how come measures aren’t being put in place to reduce the risk of people dying? We’re seeing trillions being committed to reducing carbon, as though that is somehow going to stop such events happening, which it won’t.

At the same time, little, if anything is being done to reduce the impact of this type of weather. Such moves would save lives, but people are so focused on reducing carbon that they ignore the far greater and far more immediate threat from weather even though there is zero evidence this is anything other than nature doing what it’s always done.

Apparently this is a “one in 500 year” event, which must obviously have been determined by some model somewhere. The truth, of course, is that we just don’t know because we simply don’t have sufficiently reliable records going back far enough to validate the data. Yet that no longer seems to matter as anything and everything that now happens is linked to “man-made climate change”.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:00 am

The problem isn’t climate change. The problem is the environment!

We had 2.5″ of rain last night in an hour from a thunderstorm cell that passed over as part of a larger storm front.

Guess what? NO FLOODING.

The difference is that I live in a rural area with waterways and drainage ditches meant to carry such water away to nearby streams, rivers, and what we call tailwater pits (usually dry ponds meant to catch water overflows). We also have lots of land that tends to suck up water as well.

Our environment isn’t like NY, NJ, and PA with miles upon miles of concrete, asphalt, and building. There the city streets become waterways and drainage ditches. But there aren’t any streams, rivers, or tailwater pits to catch the overflow and channel it away. Building basements become the tailwater pits and subways become streams and rivers.

Yet this is what the coastal elites envision for all of us. Living in large, dense cities with miles of concrete and asphalt and the poorest of the poor living in the basements, subways, etc. I mean, they are expendable, right? They can always be replaced after they’ve drowned!

Will what Ida caused in the northeast be a lesson for those who think dense, urban living is the way we should all live? Hell No! They never have to suffer the consequences.

To me, those who think they should be able to tell us how to live should have to live *exactly* the way they propose. Let John Kerry live on the ground floor of a high-rise tenement if he thinks that is the answer to his so-called climate crisis. Let AOC live in the basement of a building prone to flooding. Maybe they would change their tune!

Captain Climate
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:12 am

Hey Griff, what’s the uncertainty on daily precipitation measurements since 1890?

TonyG
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:42 am

“in the last 30 years”

How old is the earth? How long have we had weather?

oeman 50
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:44 am

What are the error bars on that 6%?

2hotel9
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:15 am

Climate changes, there is no “new normal”. Of course you know that.

Reply to  2hotel9
September 3, 2021 1:03 pm

No, he doesn’t, because every evening he switshes for the rotal reset.

2hotel9
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 4, 2021 6:39 am

I’m pretty sure it’s oscillation rate is much faster than that. Imagine trying to go to a restaurant with this putz in the group!

pochas94
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:20 am

Whatever you say, griff.

garboard
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:23 am

in 1955 NY got hit with back to back hurricanes ; first Connie which dumped 13 inches at fort Schuyler then a few days later Dianne which dumped 16 inches in nearby CT .( ida was less than 10 ). of the more than one dozen hurricanes that have affected NYC probably the worst was 1821 which had a 13 foot storm surge that drowned lower Manhattan and connected the east river with the Hudson . the great New England hurricane of 1938 killed 100 though it hit the east end of Long Island more than 60 miles away thoroughly destroying much of New England . scientists say all the methane from the huge amounts of horse shit on the streets of NY was likely responsible for the disastrous 1821 hurricane . the old normal

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  garboard
September 3, 2021 12:52 pm

Scientists say all the methane from the huge amounts of horse shit on the streets of NY was likely responsible for the disastrous 1821 hurricane.

But now the horsesh*t comes from the MSM talkin’ ’bout “climate change”. Differnt a**holes, same methane. 😉

Nicholas Harding
Reply to  garboard
September 3, 2021 2:59 pm

My rain water 5 gallon bucket on my deck in Stratford, CT, collected 7.5 inches of rain water during IDA.

Reply to  garboard
September 3, 2021 5:42 pm

That was the first year my family had a summer house on a creek in lower Bucks county, close enough to Philly that my dad could commute to work. The storms came through after we were back in the city school having started. After the first storm cam through we drove up to see what had happened–water came up under our elevated cabin–I remember mom opening the top on an old wringer washer that was under the house, there were several small sun perch swimming around in it. When the next stome came through, the creek had flooded to the rafters in our cabin. Lucky it was still there. Another cabin in the camp association floated downstream about 300 yards and came to rest still upright. The family it belonged to just moved into the new location the next summer. Sure was a mess to clean up, but rater impressive for a 9 year old kid.

n.n
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:38 am

The new or modern “normal” has historically occurred with irregular but recurring frequency.

william knight
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:42 am

urban development has been the reason for an up to 600% increase in flooding – https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs07603/

Last edited 13 days ago by william knight
Jeff Alberts
Reply to  william knight
September 3, 2021 8:04 pm

More levees means when it does flood, it will be worse, since the water levels will be higher.

garboard
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:45 am

a simple google of US floods between 1900 and 2000 brings up a list of 75 major floods , many of which lasted weeks and covered 100’s of square miles . the new normal is that these kind of events are no longer considered acts of god but are now considered to be the fault of bad people . we have returned to the age of superstition . fossil fuel is the new witchcraft behind weather disasters

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 12:22 pm

Griff, in my part of the world the weather over the last two weeks has been the most boring I’ve experienced in 68 years. Cloudy, almost no sunshine, about an hour of (very) wetting drizzle. Once. And nothing else.

Is this very obvious shift towards more boring weather “climate change?”

MAL
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:50 pm

Griff, are you that stupid. My how town has a eight inch rain one week and a twelve inch rain the next week and were my sister lived the 12 inch rain was 23 inches. Yet neither rain matches the record rain in the least amount of time for Minnesota that was my home town in 1910(a little before my time) it was 12 inches in four hours, My great uncle talk how his dad took a team of horse across the swollen river shortly after that rain fall.

I personal have been in three eight inch rains with a few hours spread across 30 years. The last one in was on a Monday and it followed the four inches we got on Friday. It was halfway up my driveway and my garage did get flood and we lost power for several hours.

The most rain I seen in the shortest amount time was two inches in fifteen minutes that happen again in my home town when I was a young adult. That weather, climate change had nothing to do with any of those events.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:01 pm

Still waiting Griffy baby for a reply about when the Earth’s climate has never changed before & when it’s stayed the same!!! Guess I have a jolly long wait for that one!!! Oh & 6% increase could simply be a statistical glitch highlighted by pro greenalists within the propaganda driven UK Wet Office. Those former members I have spoken to have all confirmed the bias within that joke organisation, of course they have all retired on fabulous taxpayer funded pensions & are penalty free!!!

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Richard Page
September 3, 2021 10:01 am

I don’t know why anyone thinks you’ll get a reply from Griff, it;s not his style, he just dos drive-bys. I think that he thinks that Mosher is the person to copy.

Don’t worry it’s not personal he does it elsewhere

Richard Page
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 3, 2021 10:23 am

Trust me, I don’t expect a reply. I’ve only ever had one reply from Griffy ever and that was to complain that I was name calling. I write them because I bet he’ll read all the replies, even if he won’t reply.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 3, 2021 1:17 pm

I miss Mosher.

Thomas
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 3, 2021 2:18 pm

Mosher was a master of the drive-by, but at least he was a fairly smart guy. Griff is just a wannabe grifter. Little does he know that his posts serve the opposite purpose that he seems to intend for them; a casual reader is exposed to dozens of compelling counter arguments! But don’t tell the Grifter, he is slightly entertaining and without him we often resort of fighting with each other, which almost never entertains and only rarely informs. : )

Reply to  Thomas
September 3, 2021 6:19 pm

Mosher wasn’t always that way – for quite a while, he contributed quite well to the conversation.

I think that what happened is that he got too emotionally invested in his work at BEST, and that made it impossible for him to deal with any of the very well reasoned posts that pointed out the many flaws in both their data sources and their analysis methodology.

Happens to the best of us, but still sad when it does.

TonyG
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 3, 2021 2:32 pm

I don’t expect a reply from Griff, but there may still be some people reading this who are looking for actual information. My questions are there for them to see that even simple questions go unanswered. To me, that simple fact is quite informative.

Phil.
Reply to  Richard Page
September 4, 2021 1:06 pm

In NJ we had two of these in about a week, Henri and Ida. Five inches of rain followed by 7″ where I am.

MarkW
Reply to  Phil.
September 4, 2021 4:56 pm

Channeling my inner griff.
Two big storms in only week. That’s utterly unprecedented. It’s never happened to your town before in the history of the world. This most definitely is absolute proof that CO2 is going to drown us all.

Phil.
Reply to  MarkW
September 5, 2021 5:15 am

Well the local stream breaking its record flood level by over a foot and the same day having a tornado pass within a mile is certainly unusual!

Jim Whelan
Reply to  Phil.
September 5, 2021 11:41 am

Tornadoes during large storms are far from “unusual”.

Phil.
Reply to  Jim Whelan
September 6, 2021 7:59 am

They are where I live.

c1ue
Reply to  David Middleton
September 3, 2021 8:04 am

Sad but I can’t say it is surprising.
Infrastructure all over the US continues to deteriorate due to underinvestment; why should the finance capital of the US be any better?
The state of NY subways shows this clearly.

griff
Reply to  c1ue
September 3, 2021 8:23 am

Yes, the US is well behind the rest of the world in infrastructure, especially subways… London, Berlin and Vienna are all building new tube/u bahn/subway lines at the current time.

but there’s no level of investment on the 20th century scale of things which can cope with the new level of climate change induced rainfall

MarkW
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 8:31 am

Interesting how the socialist assumes that forcing people to use government provided transportation is the “modern” way of doing things.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:04 am

Coms on dude! 5 or 6 years ago we received 4.5 inches of rain in thirty minutes. I live in Kansas. We had flooding and pooling in low lying areas where creeks are evident. The amazing thing was that the watershed handled it just like it has for 1000’s of years.

You know who had problems? City folks where concrete and asphalt funneled water into storm sewers had the real problems. The water couldn’t get thru and what happened? Flooding into basements and even houses and businesses. No planning on handling flash rains. No attending to creating channels to carry extra water. Just approve plats where scraping the land flat is ok because building is cheaper.

The conclusion? Covering the land with impermeable surfaces and not planning for handling a mere 3 inches of rain is the human failure, not climate change.

MarkW
Reply to  Jim Gorman
September 3, 2021 9:11 am

I wouldn’t be surprised if nobody checked to make sure the storm drains and channels were clear of debris either.
Spending money to keep storm sewers clear isn’t sexy and can’t be used to promote a politicians career. Which is why such activities are always under funded.

Last edited 13 days ago by MarkW
Bruce Ranta
Reply to  Jim Gorman
September 3, 2021 10:08 am

And the fact the population on North America has doubled over the past 50 years, with most of that population growth taking place in urban areas. And finally, most want to see another doubling of the population before this century is over. All the while reducing our use of fossil fuels from what we used to need many years ago. People live in a fantasy world dominated by pixie dust.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Jim Gorman
September 3, 2021 10:16 am

I cycle round the town where I live in the UK. I’m appalled by the lack of maintenance on drains and gutters. Judging by the greenery they haven’t been cleared for several years. All it will take is a thunderstorm parking over the area dropping 3″ or 4″ of rain and anywhere low lying will suffer from Climate Change as the debris is washed into already partially blocked drains.

I doubt very much has been done since the floods of early 2000s when I seem to remember we had three years which were the harbingers of more Climate Change flooding.

Rick C
Reply to  Jim Gorman
September 3, 2021 5:18 pm

Exactly right. The typical engineering design maximum rain rate is 8 inches/hour (5 gallons/square foot) for anywhere from 15 minutes to 1 hour depending on location. 8″/hr is a measured 2-sigma value during severe downpours. Typical thunderstorm rain rates are over 3″/hr. It is not uncommon in much of the US Midwest and East to see a series of strong thunderstorms over a period of a day or two. Serious flooding is often the result of poor planning, inadequate or plugged storm drains, impervious surfaces, building in flood plains, etc. Of course major hurricanes dropping 40 to 50 inches in a day or two will likely cause major flooding regardless. If you’re not prepared to accept such a risk, don’t live in hurricane prone areas.

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:19 am

They may built new, but don’t replace the old. 😀

MartinM
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:51 am

Mass transit requires urban density. The US has a distinct lack of urban density. The low riders per mile turn them into economic black holes.

MarkW
Reply to  MartinM
September 3, 2021 10:32 am

To people like griff, money is always no object. Proper virtue signaling requires lots of other people’s money.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  MartinM
September 3, 2021 1:22 pm

Many of our urban areas are very dense.

MarkW
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 3, 2021 7:30 pm

As are many of the urban dwellers.

Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 3, 2021 8:08 pm

.Many of our urban areas planners are very dense..
FIFY.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:07 am

How are you going to provide the new infrastructure? Ask CA about their high-speed rail! The Bureaucratic Hegemony we have today in the US makes it impossible to build on the 20th Century scale of things. Environmental regulations, land use regulations, right-of-way regulations, funding regulations — you name it.

Biden’s infrastructure plan will meet the same fate as Obama’s – no shovel ready projects will materialize because there are no way to get around the regulations. The money will just wind up going into the pockets of the cronies hanging around the administration.

Wharfplank
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:36 am

In the early 2000’s, Maine went into drought…is that the new normal?

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 1:20 pm

Di you miss the massive New York City infrastructure project to route the Long Island Railroad to an additional station under Grand Central Terminal? Lots of billions of dollars, many years.
No, the LIRR isn’t a subway – it is a commuter railroad. However, it is transit infrastructure.

meab
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 1:39 pm

griffter. Once again you showed your ignorance. The NY city subway system shut down because of the flooding; 50 subway stations were flooded. You apparently don’t know that subways are built underground, as in where the water goes when it isn’t properly handled by storm sewers. Rather than suggest that storm sewers might need to be upgraded to cope with the (phony) increase in severe rainfall you, in your typical ignorant way, suggest that more subways can cope with climate change.

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/09/02/ida-flooded-subways/

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 4:10 pm

Yeah, “behind the rest of the world infrastructure, especially subways,” lol.

How much of the world even has subways?

Then again, you think 3 x 7 = 20 and that 13 cars for 10 households amounts to “most households have 2 cars.”

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 8:07 pm

London, Berlin and Vienna are all building new tube/u bahn/subway lines at the current time.”

In tiny little countries, that’s an easier thing.

MAL
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:54 pm

The New York subway were the super spreaders of the the China Virus. Sorry no thanks.

Dave Fair
Reply to  David Middleton
September 3, 2021 10:43 am

The “leaders” were too busy fixating on CO2. If ‘everybody’ knew hours ahead of time, Cliff, why weren’t urgent warnings issued? Don’t pull your punches.

ATheoK
Reply to  David Middleton
September 3, 2021 11:58 pm

There are numerous Twitter images of water gushing into the NY Tube (subway) system. Doorways looked like massive fire hoses spouting small rivers of rainwater.

NYC was warned about preparing to counter flash floods during Sandy, which they ignored.

This time NYC city staff failed to address possible flash floods and the havoc they cause.

I have strong doubts that anyone can tell the egotists running New York, what they should do.

ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 6:16 am

Need to do better? The only well coordinated planning I see in the Northeast is political statements and media coverage designed to set the stage for Super Storm Sandy 2 federal funding. This mainly focuses on more water vapor from rising global temps. I guess that is the attack strategy for the players coming out of the cloak room.

Ron Long
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 7:47 am

Instead of New England politicians trying to spin this (terrible) event, maybe it is a suggestion that the population of Louisiana is more intelligent/educated than the population of New York. I say this because there has been a brain drain from New York, which lost a Representative in the latest census, and it was the high achievers that left. Please don’t send me hate mail.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 4:41 pm

Being conservative and using safety factors is the norm in engineering. It isn’t bending any “rules.” The “rules” are minimum standards.

New Orleans didn’t flood during Katrina due to the old levee system being designed to inadequate “rules.” One did overtop…because it wasn’t built to the design height, which wasn’t realized at the time. Others were mechanical failures due to soil conditions, negligence in maintenance, sheet piling not being as deep as designed, etc.

Not to mention that even in recent years, there were concerns they didn’t go far enough New Orleans Levees Rebuilt After Katrina May Not Withstand 100-Year Storm, Corps of Engineers Says | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
https://www.nola.com/news/environment/article_80c27be8-e3e7-11ea-bbf9-1731ebdd9171.html

Rich Davis
Reply to  Ron Long
September 3, 2021 12:22 pm

Please don’t saddle us New Englanders with NY and NJ. We already have enough socialist parasites of our own.

Sara
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 8:15 am

When Hurricane Sandy approached NYC, the then mayor broadcast a message for EVERYONE to stay off the streets, because flooding was expected to be severe. Fortunately, it was not as bad as expected, but people did stay off the streets.

meab
Reply to  Sara
September 3, 2021 1:43 pm

Sandy was not a hurricane when it made landfall. That’s why it was dubbed “Super Storm Sandy”.

Sara
Reply to  meab
September 3, 2021 2:39 pm

True, but as it approached it was still a himmicane…. er, hurricane.

Admin
September 3, 2021 6:16 am

I live in a place were huge tropical storms are common. The drains on my quiet suburban street are over a yard wide, a person could crawl along the pipe underneath my street. The main road drains are even bigger.

Drains that large easily handle a few inches of rain in a single storm. They have to, because storms of that magnitude happen multiple times every summer.

It is not difficult to build urban infrastructure which can handle floods, first step find out who is skimming the urban drain budget. Small pipes are cheaper.

Last edited 14 days ago by Eric Worrall
Thomas Gasloli
Reply to  Eric Worrall
September 3, 2021 6:38 am

Exactly, floods are not a problem of rain fall they are a problem of how the infrastructure is ( or is not) designed to handle the rain fall.

Metro Detroit routinely floods because the freeways are below grade, the storm sewers are inadequate and poorly maintained, and the pumps fail due to lack of maintenance and thievery.

Vuk
Reply to  Eric Worrall
September 3, 2021 8:05 am

Joseph Bazalgette died 130 years ago, it appears that many parts of outer London , New York and many other cities forgot how to design city streets drainage. If you ever happen to visit / Plumstead / Thamemead do not miss to see this wonderful cathedral of the Victorian engineering

comment image_1024

https://www.crossness.org.uk/visit.html

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Vuk
September 3, 2021 8:11 am

My son Joseph is named after the marvellous Mr Bazalgette.

Vuk
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 3, 2021 8:26 am

While I was working in engineering department of a TV company I met his great-great-grandson Peter, a TV producer at the time. We had casual chat and he told me about Crossness station (without mentioning family connection) which I subsequently visited and ever since I occasionally tell people to step back in time and marvel at greatness of Victorian engineering.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Vuk
September 3, 2021 10:39 am

The Victorians always did engineering with style

Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 3, 2021 11:04 am

The Victorians always did engineering with style

Because they lacked the advanced mathematical tools and materials to do it on the cheap…

ren
Reply to  Vuk
September 3, 2021 9:09 am

There is a similar cathedral in Lodz.
The drinking water tanks were built on the highest hill of Lodz – Stoki. This work of engineering art was designed in the beginning of the 20th century by engineer William Heerlein Lindley. 
Water from them supplies the area of 2/3 of Lodz. It flows by gravity to the houses located below the slopes. In each of the four reservoirs there are nearly 100 columns supported by brick arches and domes. They are similar to medieval cathedrals, which is why the reservoirs were called “underground cathedral”.comment image

ren
Reply to  ren
September 3, 2021 9:19 am

Lindley’s designs were in demand across Europe, and together with his sons he built systems for cities in Germany (including Düsseldorf) and elsewhere, including Saint PetersburgBudapestPrague and Moscow. In 1876 the Australian city of Sydney even asked him to design a sewer system for them, but he turned them down as he had just been commissioned by Warsaw in Tsarist Poland.
Between 1876 and 1878 he designed the Warsaw waterworks, which were constructed between 1881 and 1889 under the direction of his son, William Heerlein Lindley. To this day, there is a street in Warsaw named after him, which goes around the historical waterworks. Also named after the Lindleys’ handiwork is “Filter Street” (ulica Filtrowa). As an interesting sidenote, the system that William Lindley designed for Warsaw is still operational, and the last sewer collector of his design was not replaced until 2001.

beng135
Reply to  ren
September 4, 2021 8:37 am

The Roman aqueducts from 2000 yrs ago were built w/style too.

saveenergy
Reply to  Vuk
September 3, 2021 9:42 am

All that cast iron beauty … to pump sewage.
Its a wonderful place (particularly when the engine is in steam) well worth making a special trip for !!

Dmacleo
Reply to  Vuk
September 3, 2021 12:08 pm

thanks for posting that.
I’ll never be able to physically make it but the website is nice to browse.

Vuk
Reply to  Dmacleo
September 3, 2021 12:16 pm

Just google “crossness pumping station” and select images, far more there than on the actual website.

Vuk
Reply to  Dmacleo
September 3, 2021 12:24 pm

or Videos

griff
Reply to  Eric Worrall
September 3, 2021 8:25 am

Right.

but I imagine the climate has been delivering tropical rainfall for decades where you live.

The level of rainfall now seen in Germany, China and NY this year is way, way, way above the previous records and anything seen before. Till now, no actual event to prompt to reequip for tropical storms

MarkW
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:13 am

Actually it isn’t. But keep making stuff up griff, eventually someone will believe you.

Simon
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 12:57 pm

“Actually it isn’t. But keep making stuff up griff, ”
Oh that is soooo rich coming from you Mr Fiction and Fiction.

Last edited 13 days ago by Simon
MarkW
Reply to  Simon
September 3, 2021 1:04 pm

If that’s the best you’ve got, then as usual, you’ve got nothing.
It really is sad how bad the quality of our trolls has gotten.

Simon
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 1:13 pm

OK, I want a dollar every time you say “It really is sad.”
But come on, even you must see the irony of “MIUM” accusing Griff of making stuff up. Like Hitler accusing someone of being naughty.

Last edited 13 days ago by Simon
MarkW
Reply to  Simon
September 3, 2021 7:33 pm

Just because it can’t be found in your catechism, doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
There was a time when you at least tried to be informative.
Now the best you can do is show up from time to time to try and bite the ankles of your intellectual superiors.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
September 4, 2021 11:10 am

Note for the intentionally clueless, the only person I’m claiming to be superior to here is Simon.
Then again, since the average 1st grader has no trouble clearing that standard, it isn’t all that big a claim.

saveenergy
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:19 am

“The level of rainfall now seen in Germany, China and NY this year is way, way, way above the previous records and anything seen before.”

That’s totally untrue … read the historical precipitation records.

The tripe you continually spout leads to the question – Are you brain dead or just a congenital liar ?

Last edited 13 days ago by saveenergy
saveenergy
Reply to  saveenergy
September 3, 2021 4:47 pm

bad link … ignore

Last edited 13 days ago by saveenergy
Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  saveenergy
September 3, 2021 9:45 am

Both as far as we can tell. Fails to learn when corrected, too.

Doonman
Reply to  saveenergy
September 3, 2021 11:37 am

Griff suffers from OCD and hysterical projection. It’s defined as a mental illness. He can’t help himself, and neither can others. It takes years of professional help and therapy to conquer.

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:20 am

They aren’t.

Richard Page
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 3, 2021 9:44 am

I know, you know and most people here know. Griffy is more of a mental goldfish, he’s got no long term memory and no concept that something similar could have happened in the past. Unfortunately for us, being a mental goldfish appears to be very popular at the moment.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:44 am

Stop Lying Griff.

Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:20 am

Follow me, griff:

What is the bigger number: 95, 104, 98, 103, 90?

If your answer is different from 104, that explains your problems with “previous records”;

BUT:

If those numbers are mm of rain each for one day, can you tell the difference? What was the rainiest day of the five?

Last edited 13 days ago by Joao Martins
TonyG
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:46 am

So, griff, what’s the RIGHT amount of rain?

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:48 am

No, it’s not “way way above previous records”. You’re making stuff up.

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:09 am

The level of rainfall now seen in Germany, China and NY this year is way, way, way above the previous records and anything seen before.

Except that of course it isn’t. I have referred to to the far far greater European floods of 1342

China suffered massive renewable energy based deaths of up to quarter of a million in the Banqiaou dam disaster. Due to massive flooding.

And of course heavy rainfall is the sign of a cooling climate, not a warming one.

I really find your cognitive dissonance pathological.

Derg
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:47 am

Simon?

Simon
Reply to  Derg
September 3, 2021 1:00 pm

Awe…. are you missing me?

Last edited 13 days ago by Simon
Reply to  Simon
September 3, 2021 1:07 pm

No, Simple Simon, no one miss you.

Simon
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 3, 2021 1:46 pm

Well Derg clearly does.

Richard Page
Reply to  Simon
September 3, 2021 3:17 pm

I don’t think Derg missed you as much as you just ducked at the right moment!

MarkW
Reply to  Simon
September 3, 2021 7:35 pm

If that’s how you want to read it, nobody can stop you.
However he quite clearly wondering if griff is your sock puppet.
For normal people that’s not “missing you”.
Then again, the fact that nobody misses you, seems to weigh quite heavy on your ego.

meab
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 2:18 pm

You’ve been called out on this lie before, griffter.

The German one hour rainfall of 163.5 mm (6.43″) seen this year was well exceeded by 200 mm (7.87”) that deluged the town of Miltzow in one hour on September 15, 1968.

By the way, the all time greatest recorded rainfall in one hour was 12 inches in Holt, Missouri on June 22, 1947. Note that was well before the climate “crisis” scam ever took hold in the vacuous skull cavity of people like you, griffter.

MAL
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:08 pm

Right the eight inch rains that I experienced were in the Fargo, ND metro area. Prior to humans settling it is was a big swamp. Some unground pipe the storm drains feed into are six foot across the ditches running through are fifty foot across about twenty feet deep. The Red River in Fargo drops three feet per mile. A eight inch rain can fall and yet no one dies. You may not be able to move for a day but thing return to normal with the inconvenience of the some of the underpass remain flood. One said underpass often would remain flood for weeks the engineering genius who lad it out put the pumps on the bottom(that was corrected after about the fourth flooding). Fargo flatness does make major rainfalls less dangerous since the rain has few steep slopes to go down. Most floods you can walk away from, it just gradual raising water.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  griff
September 4, 2021 2:05 am

Griff the nutter as usual.
Can’t ever answer, only write (endless) crap and run.

DonM
Reply to  Eric Worrall
September 3, 2021 9:59 am

I don’t know why ‘hydraulic grade line’ is such a difficult concept for people to understand.

I have repeatedly gone over it with review permit technicians, engineers, surveyors, etc.

It’s really pretty simple. And sometimes pipe size doesn’t matter … and sometimes a bigger pipe can may just allow the water to flow the wrong way, faster.

Last edited 13 days ago by DonM
Tim Gorman
Reply to  Eric Worrall
September 3, 2021 10:11 am

It is so difficult to do that today that it is literally impossible. The Bureaucratic Hegemony in the US has regulated the ability to put in such infrastructure out of existence. Exactly what large city in the US could afford to tear up all their streets to increase the ability to handle rainfall? The environmental studies alone would eat up any possible tax increases meant to fund doing so.

ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 6:21 am

Now turn off the power so we can do a real test of the regional green power plan.

Jerome P Koch
September 3, 2021 6:25 am

When I was in the Air Force, we called it Nowcasting (0-6hr window). Nowcasting requires a different skill set than forecasting. In the 1980s/early 90s we didn’t posses the meso-scale tools that are available today (namely, Doppler Radar and high res satellites). That forced us to pay extra close attention to small sub-synoptic features that could be tracked by a combination of radar, surface analysis and GOES satellite. With was crude by today’s standards. But more cases than not, it forced the forecaster to focus on the here and now. Compute models back then were just not that good. However, they were good enough if used with obvious “low-hanging” fruit. In the case of Ida and its remnants, even a first year Met student would expect a heavy rain event. The questions then would be where, and how much. Earlier this summer, a series of very slow moving thunderstorms moved across Northern Indiana. The sfc temps were in the low 90s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A series of weak upper level troughs were lifting out of Illinois and would track into IN/Mich by 1800 local time. By 1700, a cluster of small but intense thunderstorms formed and moved NE 5-8kts. One followed another over a period of 2 hours. Total rainfall 4.5-5.5 inches of rain over that period. It wasn’t until the State Police called in flash floods that a FF warning was issued. Yet, the Doppler showed very heavy rainfall. NOAA was more concerned with severe thunderstorms than flooding (to their credit they issued severe wx warnings with plenty of lead time). If this would have been Chicago and not farm country, it would have made headlines. Nowcasting is a tough job. But it is really what matters. Yes, forecast periods are 12-24 hours. But warnings are what is happening now or the near future.

ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 6:26 am

When the federal dollars flow for another major NYC subway system project nicknamed Super Storm Sandy 2, be sure and not make it storm resistant so we can keep the door open for Super Storm Sandy 3 disaster recovery billions of dollars or trillions in the new over reach funding meme.

OK S.
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 12:53 pm

What I thought was; “There are investments and new policies that are needed.” = “Pour more money down that rathole that is New York City.”

John Bell
September 3, 2021 6:33 am

Reminds me…on the evening news last night, hurricane Ida leaves Louisiana a mess, and then people down there saying on camera “we’ve never seen this destruction”, BULL! they get a hurricane down there every few years, they should be prepared, with caches of water and food and gas, but no, they act like they never even heard of hurricanes. WTF!

MarkW
Reply to  John Bell
September 3, 2021 6:59 am

There’s a big difference between being hit by a Cat 1 and a Cat 4.

TonyG
Reply to  John Bell
September 3, 2021 10:47 am

I haven’t followed up, but how was Ida compared to Katrina? “we’ve never seen this destruction” even back then?

For most people, it seems that history began yesterday.

Reply to  TonyG
September 3, 2021 11:11 am

For most people, it seems that history began yesterday.

There’s one born every minute.

garboard
Reply to  John Bell
September 3, 2021 11:57 am

the worst destruction is generally in a relatively small area . people 50 miles away from the eye often see much less impact .

DonM
Reply to  garboard
September 7, 2021 11:58 am

That’s why the camera view from the helicopter (showing the devistation) seldom pans back and shows the surrounding areas.

Tom in Florida
September 3, 2021 6:37 am

“We” doing better is of no use when the people living in an area of danger pay no attention to news and weather reports.

bill Johnston
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 3, 2021 7:34 am

My thought exactly. A little bit of common sense would go a long way to preventing these things. Staying in basement apartments, driving on flooded streets, not going to higher ground might have been foolish choices.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  bill Johnston
September 3, 2021 8:12 am

Global warming causes bad decision making don’t ya know. Science says so.

Bruce Cobb
September 3, 2021 6:38 am

The Retarded News Media are in full-throated roar now, about how this is the “new normal”, and due to “climate change”, blah-blah-blah. The Climate Taliban have been handed a gift with this storm, and perfect timing for them, with their upcoming Climate CackleFest. The deaths are icing on the cake for them.

MarkW
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
September 3, 2021 7:01 am

According to political analyst Matthew Dowd, over 100 million will die in the next year from climate “disasters”.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-matthew-dowd-100-million-climate-change-deaths

Last edited 13 days ago by MarkW
H.R.
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 10:04 am

I’ll wait for the list of names.

stinkerp
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 3:50 pm

This should be fun to review with Dowd next year. About 60 million people die per year globally from all causes. Who will follow up with him in 2022 when about 60 million people die instead of 160 million?

philincalifornia
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
September 3, 2021 7:40 am

Ghoulish but true. What is wrong with them? Even the Associated Press can’t get the English language right:

but experts said it was slightly exacerbated by climate change — warmer air holds more rain

https://apnews.com/article/northeast-us-new-york-new-jersey-weather-60327279197e14b9d17632ea0818f51c

Then I realized that was Seth Goebbelstein’s contribution to the article.

Warmer air holds more rain ?? I really miss the spaz icon.

Richard Page
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
September 3, 2021 7:42 am

If you’ve seen some of my posts elsewhere on here you may have noticed I talk about patterns of events more than specific locations or individual sets of data. I think we’ve seen this kind of pattern of weather before – where the annual average rainfall stays more or less the same but there are more frequent heavy, but brief, downpours. I think we saw this happening in the 80’s and it may have happened in the 60’s or early 70’s. Is this sort of pattern associated with frequent El Nino and La Nina events?

PSU-EMS-Alum
September 3, 2021 6:43 am

We had a number of hydrological records broken around us. In most cases the records were from long ago (1910s, 1930s) and we only went a little past them.

Of course it was only a matter of a few hours before the screech of “climate change” could be heard.

What no one wants to talk about is the complete difference in development between when these records were first set and now. How many roads, driveways, sidewalks, and storm drains were there in 1917? How much additional water was prevented from being absorbed by the ground due to houses and roofs and gutters concentrating the output?

Yes, this disaster was exacerbated thanks to man but the primary cause was wood, asphalt, and concrete, not CO2.

Joe
Reply to  PSU-EMS-Alum
September 3, 2021 7:47 am

Precisely.

I don’t know what the barometric pressure of this storm was at landfall or if it even matters. However the media measures destruction in number of deaths and billions in property damage. If this same storm made landfall a few hundred miles to the right or left of where it did, the deaths and property damage could be drastically higher or lower. population density and type of infrastructure are key to the level of hype.

Dave Fair
Reply to  PSU-EMS-Alum
September 3, 2021 11:29 am

IIRC, analyses of rural streamflow’s show no trend.

PSU-EMS-Alum
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 3, 2021 3:02 pm

I don’t understand the point you are trying to make.

Rural implies “limited development” which, relative to my comment, would imply “limited impact” (ie, “no trend” would be expected).

Felix
September 3, 2021 6:49 am

“There is no reason why so many people had to die last night…”

They didn’t “have to die”; that implies someone ordered their deaths. They simply died. Millions of people, and some will miss or ignore the warnings. You can’t stop human nature.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Felix
September 3, 2021 7:57 am

About 500 people die every day in New York State, rain or shine, with spikes after snow-shovelling events. Not to make light of events like preventable basement drownings…..

Jim Whelan
Reply to  Felix
September 3, 2021 11:55 am

I know I’m an insensitive bastard but a couple of dozen deaths is not a catastrophe. Thousands of deaths occur in storms world wide with hundreds often dying from winds and flooding in single storms. And those numbers are fractions of a percent of what they used to be.

Stephen W
September 3, 2021 6:53 am

Poor drainage

Jim Whelan
Reply to  Stephen W
September 3, 2021 11:56 am

Poor attention to warnings.

fretslider
September 3, 2021 6:56 am

I can’t speak for the US, but they hype it up in the UK

2021: “Floods in London are the latest sign big cities aren’t ready for climate change

Cars stranded in streets turned to rivers. Bus passengers rescued by raft. Train stations submerged, sparking travel chaos. The now-familiar scenes of a city inundated by floods played out in London over the weekend, when heavy rainfall put parts of the UK capital underwater.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/europe/london-flooding-infrastructure-climate-intl-cmd/index.html

It’s by no means familiar and nobody died. But if we go back to 1928…

“In 1928 the Thames flooded much of central London, with fatal consequences. It was the last time the heart of the UK’s capital has been under water.

The river poured over embankments at Southwark, Lambeth, Temple Pier and the Houses of Parliament, where Old Palace Yard and Westminster Hall were quickly flooded.

“It came like a waterfall over the parapet and into the space at the foot of Big Ben,” wrote the Times’ correspondent.

The moat at the Tower of London was filled for the first time in 80 years. The Blackwall and Rotherhithe tunnels were under water. There was extensive flooding around Victoria Embankment Gardens, Charing Cross Station and King’s College.

“There were miniature waterfalls at Cleopatra’s Needle and the Royal Air Force Memorial, and the training ship President floated at street level,” reported the Manchester Guardian.

According to some reports, the first section of the riverbank to give way was at Millbank by the Tate. Incredibly, given its proximity to the Thames, many of the gallery’s works were stored in the lower ground floor. Some 18 were damaged beyond repair, 226 oil paintings were badly damaged and a further 67 were slightly damaged.

However, the most serious devastation was in the working class areas that backed on to the river.

What the Times described as the “many little narrow streets, courts and alleys, reminiscent of Shakespeare and his times” between Southwark and Blackfriars bridges were flooded, as was the Bankside area. Police went door-to-door urging residents to leave.

Many of them were taken away on carts. “The water was rising so quickly that many who were roused from their sleep simply threw a blanket round their shoulders and made their escape in their night attire,” the Times said.

Worst affected were the slums on the Westminster side of Lambeth Bridge, where 10 of the 14 victims lost their lives.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26153241

You can imagine the howling had a flood on that scale happened today.

MAL
Reply to  fretslider
September 3, 2021 10:16 pm

That funny a few weeks ago I watch cars being washed down the streets in Flagstaff, did make nation news did it. It what happens in Flagstaff when a thunderstorm drops water on a burn scar. It also why I have not gone trout fishing in Arizona this summer most of the canyons the streams are in. Are 500 to the thousand feet down and we had a very active monsoon season this summer. One family lost nine members a few summer ago monsoon thunder storm twenty miles away, over a burn scar.

Last edited 13 days ago by MAL
Robert Arvanitis
September 3, 2021 7:02 am

People HAD to die in NYC, because it is ruled by statists.
Power, not humane values, drive decisions and decide cost/benefit issues.

icisil
September 3, 2021 7:03 am

File this under “Climate solutions to NYC flooding”

https://twitter.com/ah_na_dee_ah/status/1433267681730473987

leowaj
September 3, 2021 7:14 am

Don’t you know? Diversity and inclusion and equity are more important than saving lives! How dare you think any other way?! /obvious sarcasm

Tom Foley
Reply to  leowaj
September 3, 2021 7:44 am

I wasn’t aware of New York’s basement apartments (I’m in Australia). But a bit of research indicates that a lot of them are illegal, on safety grounds, and that poorer people tend to live in them. Eleven of the thirteen people who died in the New York floods were trapped in basement apartments. Maybe more concern for fairer treatment and inclusion and equity, so people are not forced to live in unsafe conditions, might have actually saved lives in the flood.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Foley
September 3, 2021 8:48 am

Nobody is being “forced” to live anywhere.
They chose to live in these apartments because they are cheaper.

leowaj
Reply to  Tom Foley
September 3, 2021 9:01 am

Mr. Foley,

No one is ever forced to live anywhere except on terms that they agree to abide by, such as leasing contracts. The problem with New York City in particular is that everything is overpriced. And for nearly every other American, the monthly rent of a 700 sq. ft. apartment in New York City would be enough to pay the rent a 2000 sq. ft. apartment just about any where else. The cause of such a disparity is the price bubble in New York that has been growing slowly over the last 40 years. The cause of the bubble is not a single cause but several. One cause: NYC’s corruption. Where gouging has happened, the courts have been reluctant to hear cases, delaying them which also means the cases become cost sinks, which in turn means no one can bring litigation because it costs too much. Another cause: NYC’s bureaucracy. The fees one has to pay to own and operate a business in NYC are excessive compared to other places. The costs of a business must be outpaced by revenue. Thus, revenue has a minimum amount that it cannot fall below. That revenue minimum is higher in NYC. This means the price of everything is higher. (Consider this: $40 for a cheaply manufactured I <3 NY t-shirt that cost no more than $3 to manufacture and fractions of a penny per shirt to deliver in bulk.) Another cause: greedy real estate. Where politicians are corrupted, corruptible, and spineless; and where the courts are sleepy, overburdened, and careless; and where the layers of bureaucracy make it easy for bad actors to hide and thrive, greedy business thrives and the citizens are exploited.

“Fairer treatment” and “inclusion” and “equity” are not the solution. “Fairer treatment” means nothing because one must first answer the question, fairer compared to what? And, fairer for whom? Inclusion isn’t irrelevant because the problem affects everyone who lives there. The problem is that the citizens aren’t including themselves in the political process and those who do are voting in more corruption, whether they realize it or not. Cuomo and Bloomberg are fine examples of the same corruption in different skin, and Giuliani, while he started strong, got sleepy and ended up in the same cesspit of corruption at the end of his mayorship.

Equity will only make the problem worse. And this has been seen with rent moratoriums killing off the flow of cash to real estate, driving up the demand for money up front during new leases and further making it harder for poor and middle class to live within their own means. (Did you know, leasers in NYC are now requiring a signing fee, a security deposit, the first 3 months of rent, and the last month of rent when signing a new lease? If rent is $2,500 a month, that’s $10,000 plus fees before you even set foot in your new apartment! So much for the great equity of rent moratoriums.) If the government forces the same outcome for all people, it will raise the cost of everything even higher, widen the gap between the poor and the middle class, destroy economic mobility, destroy small and medium business, thus reducing the availability of low and mid skill jobs, and drive out all but the wealthiest business who will have no fear of competition.

I had hoped that the pandemic would be the burst of the NYC bubble (because that is the only way the cost of living in NYC will drop) but it appears prices are returning to pre-pandemic levels of absurdity. Clearly it will take something larger than a common cold pandemic to correct NYC’s problems.

So, no, D.i.E. will not solve the problem.  It will make it far worse.

MarkW
Reply to  leowaj
September 3, 2021 9:16 am

A 2000 sq. ft. luxury apartment with a clubhouse, workout room, spa, swimming pool, tennis courts, and so on.

Get outside the suburbs, and you will be able to get even more than that.

As for causes, you left out rent control. Because of this people who have lived in the same apartment for decades, are often still paying what it cost them when they first moved in. This means that all the other non-controlled apartments have to charge more in order to make up for the lost revenue.

Last edited 13 days ago by MarkW
leowaj
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 9:22 am

Thank you, Mark. I forgot about the rent control debacle.

markl
September 3, 2021 7:41 am

Another excuse to blame fossil fuel use.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  markl
September 3, 2021 8:00 am

Fossil fuels allowed thousands to escape the flooding….

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  DMacKenzie
September 3, 2021 9:48 am

You and your facts.

Dave Fair
Reply to  DMacKenzie
September 3, 2021 4:17 pm

BEVs? Not so much, if any.

davetherealist
September 3, 2021 7:48 am

Population Density and Education has everything to do with this terrible outcome. This was predicted, and the effects were similar to Sandy. But some people ignored the warnings as was obvious by all the occupied cars floating down the roads… Sad ending that was avoidable by using the human brain.

Jim Whelan
Reply to  davetherealist
September 3, 2021 12:00 pm

This was far from a “terrible” outcome. Some people ignored warnings and others did stupid things. Thousands die in weather related incidents every year and often hundreds in single storm. And deaths are a fraction of a percent of what they have been in the past. We need to stop making mountains out of ant hills.

c1ue
September 3, 2021 8:03 am

Cliff,
If you read this – could you perhaps write an article in WuWT about the relative models used by weather forecasters such as yourself vs. the GCM climate models? In particular, I note the 3km resolution you speak to above vs. the ~500 km used by the GCMs, as well as the #vertical layers etc.
A lot of people think that the relative accuracy of the weather models means the GCM models are comparable, and I think that is totally not the case.

MarkW
Reply to  c1ue
September 3, 2021 9:04 am

It’s more than just the resolution issue. Weather models and GCMs are completely separate beasts.

Weather models take current conditions and try to project them forward. The biggest limitation for most weather models is the lack of sufficient data on the current conditions. That is, we need more sensing stations. The parameterizations that are used are constantly being validated and improved.

GCMs couldn’t care less what the conditions right now are. They take a set of assumptions about the contents of the atmosphere, then try to figure out what the rest of the world will look like given those assumptions.

For GCMs to be accurate, we need full and complete knowledge about every aspect of the planet.
For example, increased rainfall will change the type of plants that live in a particular area. However the quantity and types of plants in an area will impact both transpiration and albedo of that area. So unless your model has a good grasp of this biology, it’s results will be wrong.

Changes in water temperatures will impact snowfall levels hundreds of miles away. Does you model accurately capture how changes in water and changes in wind levels impact water evaporation from bodies of water? If not, the results are going to be wrong.

Changes in vegetation will change how accumulated snow impacts albedo changes. For example, if most of your trees are deciduous, then the sun will be able to hit snow and be reflected back. However if evergreens start becoming dominant, then less sun light will hit the snow pack, and even if there is a drastic increase in snowfall, it will have much less impact on albedo.

These and hundreds more are the reasons why GCMs are crap.

Sara
September 3, 2021 8:13 am

I do not understand anyone who ignores severe weather and flood warnings from the NWS relays. It just doesn’t make any sense to me, but keeps happening. It happens around here on a recurring basis, too, when heavy rain shuts down underpasses and roads near rivers, and people still try to drive through them.

I just do not get it.

My sympathies to any family members of people who did not survive this event.

griff
September 3, 2021 8:20 am

But the authorities did NOT know this was coming: because the scale and sudden onset of this was well outside their experience or even their imagination.

I heard of one mayor whose town had 12 inches of rain, quickly raising the local river ten feet. ‘I couldn’t even have imagined that’ he said.

This is climate change – and we need to take heed that these days or months or years of rain in hours are now the new normal – well outside anything seen last century

John Bell
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 8:40 am

BULL! this happens all the time and it always has, they ought to be ready, but the new excuse is climate change, but come on, we have spent trillions getting ready for this, we need bigger pumps, and better leaders.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:08 am

So just because a politician is making excuses, that proves that this storm was “unprecedented”.

BS on that. Everybody knew this storm was coming. Everybody knew it was going to drop a lot of rain. Whether town A or town B gets the brunt of it, is unknowable until right before it happens, but that’s no excuse for either town A or town B to not get ready.

In griff’s world, heavy cells within a line of thunderstorms never occurred before man started burning fossil fuels.

Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 9:26 am

Even here in Germany the coming storm / rain was known.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 3, 2021 10:02 am

And the authorities failed to lower dam water levels.

Sara
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 3, 2021 11:25 am

Oh, there are people around here where I live that are so utterly dumb, even if they are warned to NOT drive through water under railroad bridges or on side roads, they will not only try to drive right through it and get stuck, and then get out of their cars and try to walk through that much. They are at least as dumb as that mayor’s remark.

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 9:53 am

In Griffy’s delusional world it is summer all year round; heavy rain, cold, snow and storms are completely unheard of and simply never occur. I don’t think he’s lived in the real world for a long time, if ever. I feel sorry for the poor deluded fool – he will need a lot of professional help.

Sara
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 11:17 am

Isn’t it kind of strange that THIS mayor knew nothing but the prior hurricane (Sandy in 2012) prompted the then mayor of NYC to tell people to stay off the streets and/or stay home?

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:25 am

How long NY has the size it has now ?

Richard Page
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 3, 2021 9:59 am

If population size and density are an indication of building and infrastructure growth, then New York has been steadily increasing year on year for a long time.

Sara
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 3, 2021 11:19 am

Oh, since people started building stuff on Manhattan – it’s been going on for a couple of centuries, nothing new here.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 9:45 am

This is trolling and we can ignore it and continue to pursue good science or what’s left of it in the advocacy caliphate.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:02 am

Even by your low standards Griff, that’s utter bilge.

Sara
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:23 am

Hogwash, Griffypoo: pure unadulterated hogwash! They knew it was coming. It’s THEIR fault if they didn’t take it seriously. You’re so far off base this time, you may have to swim back. I hear wintergreen Lifesavers are good for that.

If you think a Cat 4 storm has anything to do with climate change, when it is WEATHER (as I’ve explained before to you), you are on the wrong planet. Category 4 hurricanes are nothing unusual and it’s this idjit mayor’s own fault that he paid no attention to the weather forecast or the information from NWS. He’s at fault. Climate change has nothing to do with it. He’s an idiot and needs to be fired.

Seriously, Griffypoo, when you have so little understanding of WEATHER and FORECASTING, you should really stick to reading books like “We Three” and “Alice In Wonderland”. And please make sure you secure your clothing properly when you go outside. I hear that crows like to follow people who wander around looking lost.

Rhs
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:01 am

If the agencies in the path of the hurricane can’t be bothered to check something like the Climate Prediction Center which showed 8 – 14 days out there was a 70% of greater than normal precipitation, then there is no amount of warning that will get them to prepare.

Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 11:17 am

I heard of one mayor whose town had 12 inches of rain, quickly raising the local river ten feet. ‘I couldn’t even have imagined that’ he said.

Then he should be sacked and someone who not only could imagine that, but has experienced it, put in his place.

What did he think a ‘flash flood’ meant?

Anyone from the Arizona desert who has seen an arroyo in spate could tell him.
Or one of the survivors of Lynmouth floods – long before climate change.

aussiecol
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 3:13 pm

Blaming climate change for their incompetence is simply a cop out.

MAL
Reply to  griff
September 3, 2021 10:26 pm

I remember being the Corning glass plant in the 1980 on the cracked first casting of the 60 inch mirror the had the dirt from previous floods and the year said flood happen. New York and much of the east coast is prime flood country hills and valleys, rains falls on the hills and rush down to the valleys and guess where the people are(hint it is not the hill tops)?

Last edited 13 days ago by MAL
Coach Springer
September 3, 2021 8:33 am

There is no reason why so many people had to die last night from an event we knew was coming and which we could watch unfold with weather radar and surface observations.”

You, sir, are looking for reasons in all the wrong places. Mainly, so many people had to die so that AGW could remain as fearsome as possible and so that the Democrats could push their infrastructure boondoggle. Probably more reasons than that.

Peta of Newark
September 3, 2021 8:36 am

Quote:”Disaster Hits the New York Metropolitan Area. We Need to Do Better.”
Absolutely correct and from someone who put (what I counted as) eight Weasel Words in just the para starting “After landfall, Hurricane Ida transitio” I think we now have a clue where to begin

I’m sorry I’m sorry I’m sorry, but YOU said it
sigh
Has nobody any confidence in even themselves anymore, Where has all the trust gone in this World?
(Ha! and you thought all the babies had disappeared because “we are all so rich & clever
No: the girls have simply given up hope of finding anything suitable to father a baby)

What are your thoughts (yours, NOT anybody else’s) on Joe Bastardi – after his predictions on ‘urricane Enri’
What was his Weasel Word count?

Roger Tilbury
September 3, 2021 8:41 am

In the UK the biggest problem is infrastructure and drainage, plus so many people paving over their front gardens so they can park, which means the rain can;t soak in slowly but runs off into drains. This trend of paving will be exacerbated with EV rollout so they can charge the wretched things overnight.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Roger Tilbury
September 4, 2021 8:04 am

And some people will be stupid enough to charge them even though they know a hurricane is coming.

Gordon A. Dressler
September 3, 2021 9:05 am

Concluding sentence of the above article:
“There is no reason why so many people had to die last night from an event we knew was coming and which we could watch unfold with weather radar and surface observations.”

Of direct relevance to the “reason”, there is Zappa’s Law (aka Zappa’s Canon):
“There are two things on earth that are universal: hydrogen and stupidity.”
— attributed to Frank Zappa (1986); probable rewording of phrase originated by Harlan Ellison (1985)

Joe
September 3, 2021 9:08 am

If a cat4 hurricane makes landfall on a non populated area…does it make a sound?

Richard Page
Reply to  Joe
September 3, 2021 10:02 am

Are you asking the right question?
Does it make a sound or does it make a noise?
Is it a sound when someone hears it but a noise when nobody does?

TonyG
Reply to  Richard Page
September 3, 2021 2:33 pm

It’s a pressure wave when nobody/nothing hears it. It’s a sound if something does. It’s a noise if it bothers someone.

H.R.
Reply to  TonyG
September 3, 2021 7:35 pm

It’s so annoying when someone is so correct.
😜

(Nice, TonyG)

TonyG
September 3, 2021 9:26 am

Sadly, I think this is a “feature” – it gives politicians an excuse to “do something”. It may be cynical, but I don’t think the people running things really care about the tragedy, they just want more crisis to exploit.

Richard Page
Reply to  TonyG
September 3, 2021 10:05 am

Unfortunately, I think you are right. Just the speed at which NY politicians started calling it an official disaster may have been an indicator.

Coeur de Lion
September 3, 2021 9:29 am

I have this stupid problem. This NYC disaster was caused by climate change’ was it? But surely the disaster was climate change? You can’t have climate change causing climate change. So what did? Oh it must have been global warming? But there’s been none for six years and precious little for 150.

Sara
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
September 3, 2021 11:31 am

Wait – what you’re saying is that climate change got itself pregnant by self-implanting cimate change, and had a baby which was a disaster?

Can anyone do the math on that?

Richard Page
Reply to  Sara
September 3, 2021 12:19 pm

Wait, what? Er, does that make Mikey Mann the midwife or maybe a faulty condom?

Sara
Reply to  Richard Page
September 3, 2021 2:42 pm

Oh, my aching ribs! That was cloudburst funny!!!! Thank you, Richard Page. I needed that!!!!

Robert of Texas
September 3, 2021 9:40 am

“Cops were out in the hardest-hit areas”

I thought New York was defunding all those racist meany-head police? Amazing how they are suddenly appreciated when a disaster hits.

How does one “drown” in a basement? Were these people too old to move? Really confusing.

Like always, a post-disaster (in the future, not right now) becomes an opportunity to build safer neighborhoods. These people will be suffering for a while but they can come out of this stronger with good leadership.

Sara
Reply to  Robert of Texas
September 3, 2021 11:32 am

The news service this morning indicated that they were living illegally in basement spaces. And it’s easy enough to drown in a basement if the drain is clogged to start with.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Sara
September 3, 2021 4:36 pm

One can’t walk up a flight of stairs to the ground floor? One can’t float up to the door to the ground floor?

Sara
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 3, 2021 7:17 pm

Some people really are that dumb, as well as lazy.

H.R.
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 3, 2021 7:44 pm

I wondered much the same, Dave. Here’s one scenario I came up with.

If the stairwell floods – almost instantly from a flash flood – and the door opens outwards, and the drain is backing up into the basement apartment, you’re screwed.

You can’t open the door until the water pressure is equalized from the inside, and by then you have drowned.

Phil.
Reply to  Robert of Texas
September 4, 2021 2:07 pm

Check out this video showing a basement flooding in NJ the other day, fortunately everyone survived. https://twitter.com/Bogs4NY/status/1433864450340265987?s=20

Forester
September 3, 2021 9:45 am

One would think that the 28 Trillion we are in debt would have given us the best infrastructure in the world? If not, where did all thatmoney go???

Doonman
Reply to  Forester
September 3, 2021 11:44 am

That money never existed which is why it didn’t go anyplace. You can’t make money up out of thin air. Real wealth comes out of the ground.

Mike McMillan
September 3, 2021 10:07 am

We’re dedicating a lot of teraflops to pointless climate modeling when that power could be doing the hires weather modeling we seem to need.

Captain Climate
September 3, 2021 10:11 am

Basement apartments suck.

saveenergy
Reply to  Captain Climate
September 3, 2021 4:41 pm

No … they fill. !

Richard Page
Reply to  saveenergy
September 3, 2021 5:13 pm

Ooh, too soon.

ren
September 3, 2021 10:25 am

Convective precipitation with the approach of a cold front from the northwest to the warm Atlantic can always be blocked and produce precipitation as high as 100 liters per square meter.
A weak solar wind provides blocking of zonal circulation.

bluecat57
September 3, 2021 10:33 am

Who is “we” paleface? They made their bed, let them fix it.
If they don’t like the dung pike they voted to create, don’t move here. Move to some Blue State.

Giordano Milton
September 3, 2021 10:44 am

They spent all their money on equity and LGBT and BLM protest sympathy to waste it on things like flood control measures.

n.n
Reply to  Giordano Milton
September 3, 2021 11:32 am

Diversity [dogma] (e.g. racism), inequity (e.g. redistributive change), and exclusion (“=”) have em-pathetic appeal that can be exploited for leverage.

Last edited 13 days ago by n.n
Mike Maguire
September 3, 2021 10:46 am

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74503/#74533

This was the 24 hour rain for that event.
Note the band of very heavy rains that tracked right along the I-95 corridor, almost exactly where the most people live. …….from Philly to NYC to Boston. That area saw 6+ inches of rain with 3 isolated spots of 10 inches. Much of this fell in a matter of several hours.
 Producers/farmers that live in the cornbelt, probably remember a map similar to this with extreme rains at least several times in the last decade. Whether they remember it or not………..it’s happened.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We hear that this is a once a century type event but that’s very misleading.
Once a century………...for any 1 location.…………even while events like this are expected several times a year in the world but scattered around. 
The odds of NYC, for instance to see this much rain so fast might be very tiny but the odds for the United States are actually pretty high every year and for the world………..it’s actually very likely/expected that several to numerous places will see rains like this every year.
It just so happened that this extreme rain event occurred where the most people live and it maximized the impact and the coverage. 
That said, there WAS a connection to how extreme this and other heavy rain events are becoming with global warming.
At +1 deg. C vs 100 years ago, the atmosphere/air can hold 7% more moisture. Not 700% or 70% more…….7% more. As as result of this, all things being equal(which they never are), rain events like this, should be able to yield 7% more rain.
So the highest totals up near 10 inches, would have been more like 9.3 inches. 5 inches would have been more like 4.7 inches.
The actual weather pattern and hurricane remnant were not from climate change but individual systems, when you superimpose 1 deg. C of warming, can hold 7% more water vapor/precipitable water. So for every inch of rain that would have fallen, you can add .07 inches(all other things held constant).
We can actually use an equation in meteorology that applies to the correlation between temperature and saturated water vapor in the air.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Clapeyron_relation
“Clapeyron equation” and “Clapeyron’s equation” redirect here. For a state equation, see ideal gas law.
The Clausius–Clapeyron relation, named after Rudolf Clausius[1] and Benoît Paul Émile Clapeyron,[2] is a way of characterizing a discontinuous phase transition between two phases of matter of a single constituent. The relevance to climatology is that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) rise in temperature.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes, this is part of climate change(7% increase in heaviest rains).
Is it killing the planet?
Actually, the thing that is supposed to be killing the planet, is greening up the planet, from the best weather/climate for life in the last 1,000 years(since the last time that it was this warm).
CO2 is still the building block for life and is still a beneficial gas NOT pollution. 

        Fake beer crisis/Death by GREENING!      
               
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

Screenshot 2021-09-03 at 12-33-12 Hurricane Ida Update - MarketForum.png
Dave Fair
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 3, 2021 4:58 pm

A 7% AVERAGE increase in atmospheric water vapor cannot materially affect the ABNORMAL conditions of a tropical storm (TS). The massive amounts of additional TS moisture in a relatively small area over a short period of time is not normal. Since local average atmospheric water vapor varies as to location, wind speed, altitude & etc. and is always very minor compared to additional TS water vapor, the CliSciFi practitioners are lying to you when they say the about 1 C increase in AVERAGE global temperatures (mostly increasing poleward and at night) made TS’s measurably stronger.

Remember, TS are sucking water in massive quantities from the oceans, lakes, rivers and wet land and flinging the water molecules (vapor) skyward. Don’t get caught up in the CliSciFi increasing humidity meme. All we get is a little more rain on average. Then they abuse language to talk about increasingly more severe rain events.

H.R.
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 3, 2021 7:57 pm

👍 👍 , particularly

“A 7% AVERAGE increase in atmospheric water vapor cannot materially affect the ABNORMAL conditions of a tropical storm (TS).”

and

“Since local average atmospheric water vapor varies as to location, wind speed, altitude & etc. and is always very minor compared to additional TS water vapor, the CliSciFi practitioners are lying to you when they say the about 1 C increase in AVERAGE global temperatures (mostly increasing poleward and at night) made TS’s measurably stronger.”

Mike Maguire
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 3, 2021 10:24 pm

“Don’t get caught up in the CliSciFi increasing humidity meme. All we get is a little more rain on average. Then they abuse language to talk about increasingly more severe rain events.”

Dave,
I don’t need to listen to /read what other sources think. The data is overwhelming. As a meteorologist for the past 39 years, observing and analyzing global weather patterns, the data speaks loudly.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 4, 2021 9:57 am

Deleted hasty, unthinking comment. I need more of my Black Rifle coffee.

Last edited 12 days ago by Dave Fair
beng135
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 4, 2021 8:49 am

Looks like it was pulling moisture up & northeast from the warm Chesapeake Bay waters. And I also like & view the AHPS precipitation analysis webpage — very useful.

Last edited 12 days ago by beng135
September 3, 2021 11:00 am

Surely the point is to not forecast accurately but throw one’s hands up in a good strong signalling of virtue and say ‘Unprecedented – climate change’!

Last edited 13 days ago by Leo Smith
n.n
September 3, 2021 11:30 am

This is another Katrina controversy. There was another storm-induced surge that flooded New York City around a decade earlier. They have the awareness, the technology, the skill, the greenbacks to mitigate property and human risk.

william knight
September 3, 2021 11:33 am

deleted so ignore.

Last edited 13 days ago by william knight
Richard Page
Reply to  william knight
September 3, 2021 12:22 pm

Shan’t.

richard
Reply to  Richard Page
September 3, 2021 12:34 pm

ho ho .

Last edited 13 days ago by richard
richard
September 3, 2021 11:44 am

Hurricanes-

“NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dyamics Laboratory (GFDL): “Leaders in Climate Model Development and Research.” See their website.

For about a decade (or even longer), GFDL has annually updated their statement on hurricanes and climate change. This excerpt from their 15 August 2019 update lists some of their negative findings about current hurricane activity.

“We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero. In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.“-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic. …
“The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s. …
“While major hurricanes show more evidence of a rising trend from the late 1800s, the major hurricane data are considered even less reliable than the other two records in the early parts of the record. …
“In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record “In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.“

Mumbles McGuirck
September 3, 2021 12:44 pm

Everyone involved in numerical weather prediction knows what this country needs to get such forecasts correct: a relatively large (30-50 member) high-resolution (3-km or better for the grid spacing) ensemble of forecasts that are carefully calibrated to give good probabilistic/uncertainty predictions.  

Committee after committee, workshop after workshop, have recommended this. The National Weather Service’s own modeling experts say the same thing.  

But the investment is never made to do this. This means acquiring the necessary computer resources and building the modeling/statistical post-processing system.  Very, very frustrating that this critical capability is pushed off into the future.

Louis Uccellini is a prat. I’ve heard him speak and he is arrogant and dismissive. I have seen his actions as head of NOAA’s Environmental Forecast Center and of the whole National Weather Service, and he is self-serving and unimaginative. A lot of our weather forecasting problems are due to this incompetent fool. You-know-what floats to the top.

Last edited 13 days ago by Mumbles McGuirck
Michael Carter
September 3, 2021 1:13 pm

This, from my own neck of the woods in NZ. Hope you can read it. It needs an update, but you get the gist. It put some of the local alarmists to bed, for a while at least. Here, very extreme rainfall events are very localised – sometimes less than 1 km in diameter. 5″ in one hr have been recorded. High rainfall events and flooding are very seldom unprecedented. We know this from the records and the stories from Old-timers.

Picture1.png
Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 1:23 pm

Mods: could you check for my stray comment. It was on topic and no other issues to block it. Thx

Paul Johnson
September 3, 2021 1:28 pm

The Biden Administration seems intent on using this to promote its “infrastructure” plans. One must wonder, however, how flood resilience is improved by “free” community college or a network of EV charging stations.

Tom Abbott
September 3, 2021 2:23 pm

How do all-electric vehicles behave on flooded roads? Do the batteries get damaged driving through high water?

Michael E McHenry
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 3, 2021 3:19 pm

Too shocking to talk about

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 3, 2021 3:30 pm

If water gets into the battery compartment (which is usually low down in the car and often accessed from underneath) and inside the battery then it would be bad, very bad – almost ‘crossing the streams’ bad. If the lithium in the battery is exposed to water then expect a violent reaction, lots of gases given off (including hydrogen) just before it goes up in flames. A word of caution – do not ever drive an electric vehicle through flooded streets.

Last edited 13 days ago by Richard Page
H.R.
Reply to  Richard Page
September 3, 2021 8:02 pm

Don’t be such a ninny, Richard. Nobody drives an EV through flooded streets more than once.
😜

(As you describe it, they never get a second chance to do it again.)

Richard Page
Reply to  H.R.
September 4, 2021 4:53 am

Reminds me of a favourite quote: “Everything is air-droppable. Once.”

Neo
September 3, 2021 3:31 pm

This unfortunately is a case of crying “wolf” .. err .. “existential” event one too many times.

Editor
September 3, 2021 4:11 pm

No only a weather forecasting failure, but this exposes a massive past failure to update infrastructure despite past problems. New Jersey has allowed building in low-lying areas and known flood zones. That New York City transit didn’t stop subway trains and evacuate people to the surface streets is shameful.

Neville
September 3, 2021 4:50 pm

Here Andrew Bolt and Bjorn Lomborg discuss the actual deaths from extreme weather events over the last 100+ years.
Then less than 2 bn people at risk and today 7.8 bn at risk, DUH.
And the DATA shows that deaths from extreme weather events have fallen OFF a CLIFF since those earlier,very dangerous times. CHECK OUT the GRAPH for yourselves.
Up to July 2021 deaths from extreme weather events around the world have been at record lows AGAIN.
How can they get away with their BS and fra-d and so little condemnation from our MSM extremists?
Little wonder that the young girl at the demo is so afraid and fears for the future.
Unbelievable but true.

Neville
September 3, 2021 5:07 pm

Alex Epstein’s quote is the best when referring to extreme weather events.
“Fossil fuels haven’t taken a safe climate and made it dangerous they’ve taken a dangerous climate and made it safe”.
Just check the extreme weather DATA over the last 100 years and beyond and WAKE UP.
I thought everyone understood this factual data by now, but apparently NOT.
BTW who is advising the clueless so called leader of the free world?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/09/01/fossil-fuels-havent-taken-a-safe-climate-and-made-it-dangerous-theyve-taken-a-dangerous-climate-and-made-it-safe/

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Neville
September 4, 2021 4:14 am

Karl Marx and The Three Stooges are currently advising Joe Biden.

Last edited 13 days ago by Tom Abbott
TonyG
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 4, 2021 8:02 am

If only, Tom. He would be doing a much better job with the Stooges advising.

Mike Maguire
September 3, 2021 10:33 pm

Ida weakened after coming on shore and dropping below TS intensity in MS, remaining weakened thru MS, AL, TN, KY, WV but then strengthened by around 10 mph with rains and severe weather intensifying when approaching the Northeast.

It was NOT global warming/climate change that caused that but instead, was from the -NAO in the Northeast which is actually a cold weather pattern!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74503/#74550

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 4, 2021 4:20 am

A previous hurricane remnant had passed over the area and path that Ida followed, so the ground was saturated before Ida passed and Ida’s rain had nowhere to go since the ground was already soaked, so it filled the streets and homes instead.

ren
September 3, 2021 11:43 pm

A dangerous tropical storm is approaching the Caribbean and may reach North America.comment image
View the latitudinal jet stream in the North Atlantic. It causes the tropical wave to move westward.

Last edited 13 days ago by ren
Tom Abbott
Reply to  ren
September 4, 2021 4:23 am
ATheoK
September 3, 2021 11:53 pm

Another Cliff Mass fantasy.
Weather prediction has gotten worse as time, funds and personnel are devoted to raising global warming alarmism.

Visitors to this blog, WUWT have been raising hue and cry about the failures of NASA and NOAA along with al of their sister agencies regarding the huge wastage of funds, time and resources preparing delusional models.

Phil.
September 4, 2021 1:03 pm

By late in the afternoon it was clear that a severe event was about to take place, and we needed to get the message to folks not only to stay off the road but to get out of low-lying basement apartments. That did not happen.”

Those warnings were given, repeatedly. Some people didn’t heed them A few miles from me the road was flooded (record level for that stream by a foot). At 4am someone drove into it and had to be rescued from the roof of his car by helicopter. A mile away on the other side an EF0 tornado touched down that evening. We’re not used to that here.

Mike Maguire
September 4, 2021 1:55 pm

What really caused Ida to strengthen in the Northeast that included the massive rains…………..the -NAO:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74503/#74550

james d
September 4, 2021 7:04 pm

The forecasts are were useful but had some issues in both intensity and positio, with the highest resolution models off to the north and underestimating intensity

The mayor of NY stated he was told 3 to 6 inches. NYC got 9. And these inaccuracies are from less than 24 hours out

How can anyone believe forecasts for 30 years in the future??

Last edited 12 days ago by james d
ren
September 5, 2021 8:07 am
Chuck L
September 6, 2021 11:15 am

At my house in E Central Bergen County NJ my Davis tipping spoon rain gauge recorded 3.41” of rain between 9 and 10:00 PM accompanied by strong gusty winds and nearly continuous lightning. For three minutes from 9:18 to 9:20, the instantaneous rain rates were 12.80, 11.29, and 16.94”
per hour with 0.41” of rain during those three minutes! There was scattered severe flooding in town with a bridge and several roads washed out. We were lucky – because we live on the side of a small hill, other than some seepage through walls and floor in one side of our basement, we came through unscathed. Hats off to our town’s emergency services and to the dozens of mets who predicted the cloud bursts at least two days in advance.

rwisrael
September 6, 2021 10:37 pm

Most of the NYC deaths occurred in illegal basement apartments. It wasn’t global warming that killed them., it was lack of enforcement by the NYC Dept. of Buildings. I live in Queens.