Screenshot from "Understanding the Southern Annular Mode". Fair use, low resolution image to identify the subject

Aussie ABC: The Southern Annular Mode Ozone Recovery Ate our Global Warming

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

You’ve got to hand it to Climate Alarmists – when they want to reach for an excuse for why the world is failing to warm, they don’t have far to reach.

Ozone recovery is offsetting Southern Hemisphere climate change trends in summer

By Tyne Logan

If the latest climate report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made anything clear, it was that much more needs to be done to reverse the impacts of climate change.

Key points:

  • The IPCC says ozone recovery is counteracting some emission impacts
  • It is influencing a major climate driver called the Southern Annular Mode
  • Storm tracks were moving away from Australia but the trend is weakening

But buried in the 1,000-page document of mostly alarming reading there was one positive gem.

Our action in reducing ozone depletion is, in the short term, offsetting some of the impacts greenhouse gases are having on summer rainfall systems in the Southern Hemisphere.

What does that mean?

It’s all to do with a major climate driver known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a belt of strong westerly winds linked to rainfall in the Southern Hemisphere.

The SAM’s position — either moving further north or south — can influence which latitudes see the impacts of storm systems and cold fronts, and can also have an influence on temperature.

Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-03/ipcc-report-says-ozone-recovery-offsetting-climate-change-trends/100425964

The ABC also provided a link to this helpful explanatory video;

Of course, this latest excuse is only a temporary reprieve. Unless we mend our wicked ways, we shall experience the full force of Gaea’s displeasure. Or at the very least, we shall be treated to yet another entertaining excuse, for why the world has “temporarily” failed to warm at the rate predicted by climate alarmists.

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Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 10:23 am

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2021-09-01&hem=S&section=HOME

Ozone hole Sept 2021 looks like a gaping ozone hole in the making. If this is so, then CO2 has hardly any affect!

TonyL
Reply to  Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 10:34 am

It is spring. The sun comes up over the horizon for the first time in months. UV radiation hits the stratosphere and ozone is created from molecular oxygen. The ozone hole fills in. Happens every year.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  TonyL
September 3, 2021 8:45 pm

Actually, most of the ozone is created in the tropics and migrates polewards. However, the circumpolar vortex blocks it from entering the area where it is depleted in the Spring by photocatalytic reactions with halogens adsorbed onto ice crystals. Ozone reaches concentrations outside the vortex that are observed no where else! Once the vortex shuts down in the late-Spring, the ozone concentrations over Antarctica go back to normal as the zone created in the tropics moves in.

beng135
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
September 4, 2021 7:02 am

Ozone reaches concentrations outside the vortex that are observed no where else!

Noticed that. A pile-up of ozone?

Tom
Reply to  beng135
September 4, 2021 12:45 pm

Pile of something anyway.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  beng135
September 5, 2021 11:05 am

That’s how I interpret it. The ring of high ozone concentration is rarely centered over the South Pole. Apparently the winds fluctuate and allow some of the ozone to break through the vortex and provide ozone to the interior region of the break through.

mike macray
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
September 4, 2021 11:26 am

.”..Ozone reaches concentrations outside the vortex that are observed no where else!”

Wow! That suggests that there is more and stronger UV radiation in the tropics than the polar regions in winter!
I suspect that the high energy photons that energise O₂ into O₃ in the upper atmosphere also encounter plenty of N₂ up there to make some C₁₄ to hook up with a comely O₂ for those into carbon dating (sic) and probably a number of ways to make various NO𝚡𝚎𝗌. All of which suggests that given the reactive nature and inherent instability of ozone it is most unlikely to survive the long journey through the Hadley cells and such to the polar regions with or without interference from the incredibly minute traces of CFCs that may have survived the Montreal Accords. If by Halogens you are referring to clorides from salt spray then that is hardly anthropogenic.
I have yet to see any conclusive evidence that the banning of refrigerants has had any effect on the seasonal variations of the ozone hole… or for that matter why there isn’t one in the Northern hemisphere?
Cheers
Mike

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  mike macray
September 5, 2021 11:06 am

I agree with you.

Tom
Reply to  TonyL
September 4, 2021 12:44 pm

You trying to ruin a perfectly good hysteria ?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  TonyL
September 4, 2021 3:03 pm

Will that stop the heat escaping? I want a warmer climate. 😇

Art
Reply to  Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 11:39 am

Their excuses don’t have to rely on facts, in fact they can’t. The facts don’t support their excuses ever. Has that ever stopped them?

Chris Morris
Reply to  Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 11:58 am

The ozone hole recovery is only in the minds of IPCC and those pushing for new protocols. They use Montreal as “proof” it works so they need to do one on CO2.
Confronted by inconvenient facts like actual data, they just ignore it.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Chris Morris
September 4, 2021 3:04 pm

They believe, they don’t need no stinkin facts.

Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 10:25 am

What happened to my very apropos comment?

TonyL
Reply to  Gary Pearse
September 3, 2021 12:02 pm

Ozone is an energetic free radical and strong oxidizing agent. Your comment probably came in contact with some and was dissociated at the molecular level.

Old.George
Reply to  TonyL
September 3, 2021 12:31 pm

Or magically appeared after Gary asked.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Gary Pearse
September 4, 2021 6:20 am

There it is, at the top of the page, Gary. You are First Out.

MarkW
September 3, 2021 10:27 am

Ozone is a greenhouse gas.

TonyL
Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 11:55 am

True!
It was most inconvenient for you to have noticed.

Reply to  MarkW
September 3, 2021 12:47 pm

Yes and it ranks third most powerful behind H2O and CO2. In this context more powerful means more W/m^2 of radiant emissions being absorbed and emitted.

Curious Georgel(@moudryj)
September 3, 2021 10:33 am

How many atomic bombs per day does this annihilate?

H.R.
Reply to  Curious Georgel
September 3, 2021 10:41 am

The correct SI unit is “Hiroshimas.”

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  H.R.
September 4, 2021 3:04 pm

Why not Nagasaki’s?

H.R.
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
September 4, 2021 6:36 pm

No one here would recognize that as the proper SI unit. They’d think you were talking about two-stroke motorcycles or something.
😜

Michael E McHenry
September 3, 2021 10:42 am

What happened to “the oceans ate” ?

rbabcock
September 3, 2021 10:47 am

As Elmer Fudd would say, “It’s vwery, vwery cold in Antarctica in the winter.” When it is so cold the O3’s start bumping into each other and you get 2O3 –> 3O2 and the O3’s disappear.

Disclaimer: I’m not a trained physical chemist and really don’t know if this is what happens, but it certainly makes a lot sense and if you spread it around on Twitter long enough, it becomes fact.

Ron Long
Reply to  rbabcock
September 3, 2021 11:34 am

Congratulations, you’re an Honorary Physical Chemist, whatever that is.

beng135
September 3, 2021 10:57 am

Of course. If it’s good it’s bad. If it’s bad, it’s worse than we thought.

And wait a minute — The Southern Annular Mode? Isn’t that Michael Mann’s discovery? It must be caused by aerosols…..

Last edited 4 months ago by beng135
Peter Barrett
Reply to  beng135
September 3, 2021 11:26 am

Haven’t you misspelt the last word in your comment?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Peter Barrett
September 4, 2021 3:05 pm

🤣

ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 11:05 am

This amounts to advocacy tag teaming with their agendas.

ResourceGuy
September 3, 2021 11:06 am

News flash on cooling to the griffin.

Fred Hubler
September 3, 2021 11:10 am

But climate models didn’t predict this? How can that be?

J Mac
September 3, 2021 11:15 am

Grasping at straws” comes to mind…..

Leo Smith
September 3, 2021 11:33 am

CO2 is the dominant driver of modern climate change. Except when it isn’t.

So that’s all right, then.

Mike
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 3, 2021 7:08 pm

Ha ha ha.

Jim Veenbaas
September 3, 2021 12:14 pm

Doesn’t this simply prove the ineffectiveness of the models? A truly accurate model world account for all the potential impacts.

Thomas Gasloli
September 3, 2021 12:24 pm

Or maybe global warming is just in COVID lockdown some where in South Australia😃

Rasa
September 3, 2021 12:28 pm

The Australian Bureau of Meterology like other BOM organisations around the world have lost their credibility and certainly in Australia are mostly ignored.

Raven
Reply to  Rasa
September 3, 2021 5:13 pm

They’ve lost their credibility because they’ve lost their way.

Back in the day, I supplied IT stuff to the CSIRO and worked with the guys who did the plastic bank notes. At the time, holograms were the emerging security device and he was the first one to create a hologram from an image. Up until then, holograms were merely geometric. He had a hologram of himself on his business card and everyone was amazed.

He was the quintessential ‘boffin’ – socially awkward, odd dress sense but very likeable and personable.
He struggled for funding mainly because dealing with all the bureaucracy that wasn’t one of his strong suits. He wasn’t paid much, either.

Now they employ hundreds of ‘climate scientists™’ and kick up a stink when Tony Abbott wanted to fire a swag of them.

For those unfamiliar, the original idea behind the CSIRO was that they’d partner with industry and provide the science/research etc. and the associated business would bring the invention to market.
Now, it seems to be ‘climate scientists™’ all the way down.

Last edited 4 months ago by Raven
Peter K
Reply to  Raven
September 3, 2021 6:43 pm

Exactly. Real scientists, at the CSIRO, have been replaced by a team of global warming propagandist’s.

Lrp
Reply to  Raven
September 3, 2021 9:01 pm

There’s no more industry to partner with, so they embraced socialism.

Clyde Spencer
September 3, 2021 12:28 pm

There is a suggestion of a slow decline since about 2003, with large inter-annual variations. What is interesting is that the area of the ‘ozone hole’ is about the same as it was when the Montreal Protocol was enacted.

See the graph, courtesy of Bill Toland on another thread:

11-1629352728.1722[1].png
Last edited 4 months ago by Clyde Spencer
lee
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
September 3, 2021 10:19 pm

September 2020 it was the 12th largest. This years is still to come.

bdgwx
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
September 4, 2021 12:22 pm

The MP went into effect in 1989 but there is a phase-out schedule that has been modified several times and now extends to 2050. The most damaging agents have been reduced significantly so that is good news. The hole isn’t getting bigger and may even be on the cusp of decline. But given the phase-out schedule, possible cheating, and the length of time it takes for the hole to repair itself I doubt we’ll see that area drop below 5e6 km^2 until well after 2100.

MarkW
Reply to  bdgwx
September 4, 2021 4:51 pm

As you note, the total amount of “damaging agents” have been reduced and the “most damaging” have already been eliminated.
Yet, any potential improvement is still, sometime in the future.

BTW, there was no evidence in 1989, that the ozone hole was growing.

Last edited 4 months ago by MarkW
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  bdgwx
September 5, 2021 11:17 am

“… and may even be on the cusp of decline.”

I’m reminded of Mark Twain’s comment that he “had been on the verge of being an angel his whole life.” Being “on the cusp” is just hand waving.

https://scitechdaily.com/ozone-hole-over-the-antarctic-is-one-of-the-largest-and-deepest-in-recent-years/

Old.George
September 3, 2021 12:30 pm

In most science a prediction is made and tested.
Computer models of an airplane can be used to decide which scale models to test in a wind tunnel. Discrepancies noted and used to correct the model.
Computer models of hurricanes can be corrected using real hurricanes.
Computer models of climate must be accurate for “prediction” of the past. See how well each model would have predicted one century in the then-future. There will be a statistical deviation. This is the first approximation of how accurate the future one century from now can be predicted by that model.
It could be that the integral sum of weather, a chaotic system, is chaotic too. If so the above should show it.

Tom Johnson
Reply to  Old.George
September 4, 2021 3:55 am

Given enough variables, ANY model can match an historic record. For example, there’s always some professional sport team record that can “predict” an election outcome (based on the past). If you add in enough college and high school teams, the match will likely be exact. The issue is whether or not it will accurately predict the NEXT election. In that, the climate models fail spectacularly.

commieBob
September 3, 2021 12:48 pm

How about; Natural variability ate my global warming.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  commieBob
September 3, 2021 1:00 pm

Yours, and what is with mine ? 😀

Last edited 4 months ago by Krishna Gans
Waza
September 3, 2021 1:50 pm

A lot of Australian voters live on this boundary of SAM fighting the STR
This fighting of SAM and STR brings us our wonderful ( or crazy) Melbourne weather.
But alarmists have made it clear that the STR will become stronger, more frequent, more southerly while the SAM will become weaker and stay further south.
This leads to more heatwaves, droughts and bushfires in southern Australia.
From a voter point of view this is not happening. This supposed climate change is not bad at all.

Patrick B
Reply to  Waza
September 3, 2021 4:11 pm

Does it really matter if you are locked inside all the time?

Waza
Reply to  Patrick B
September 3, 2021 5:40 pm

Patrick
Don’t rub it in. 🙁

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Patrick B
September 4, 2021 6:29 am

I see where South Austalia is introducing an app for your phone that will require you to provide your face and your GPS location, so they can identify you and know where you are at all times. It’s starting out as a voluntary project.

Did the Chicoms secretly take over Australia while noone was looking? Talk about “1984”!

Therapeutics are on the way in a matter of months. Maybe they can make these petty Wuhan virus dictators irrelevant.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 5, 2021 2:59 pm

“Tom Abbott

Did the Chicoms secretly take over Australia while noone was looking?”

Nope. It was sold to them, lock, stock and barrel.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Waza
September 4, 2021 3:32 am

dunno bout that Ive watched the bloody SAM push all our cool n rain further nth for the last couple+yrs and its still doing it but lesser this yr so far
we just get a nice low n rain coming and UP it goes to nsw!

Stephen Skinner
September 3, 2021 2:09 pm

Gaea’s displeasure? You mean Greta’s displeasure.

Chris Hanley
September 3, 2021 2:40 pm

… Unless we mend our wicked ways, we shall experience the full force of Gaea’s displeasure …

When the video commentary refers to ‘winds shifting away from their normal position’, is ‘normal’ used in its statistical or dictionary meaning?
The graph showing the Southern Annular Mode index in the video (~3:38) starts in 1960 showing what the commentary calls an “unusual shift” but SAM reconstructions back to 1900 suggest that it could be, probably is, a recurring pattern like the AMO and PDO:
comment image
The tone of the ABC article continues the narrative that everything that happens in the weather is our your fault.

Jimbob
September 3, 2021 2:53 pm

Isn’t the proper term used by IPCC “Southern Corrected Annular Mode” – scam abbreviated

aussiecol
September 3, 2021 2:58 pm

”…reverse the impacts of climate change.”

Yep, just like pushing sh*t uphill. And people believe this garbage.

Richard Page
Reply to  aussiecol
September 3, 2021 3:43 pm

Some might do but I don’t think many people give a rats arse about this garbage, quite frankly.

Tsk Tsk
September 3, 2021 5:24 pm

So if we had never made the ozone hole and there was no man-made CO2 warming, Australia would be looking at cooling? And that would be good(tm).

Did I get that right?

Patrick MJD
September 3, 2021 5:36 pm

Like the COVID models, these models are shyte.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 3, 2021 6:34 pm

If they took everything to do with carbon dioxide out of them, they would be more accurate, although that’s not saying much.

Mike
September 3, 2021 7:06 pm

 why the world has “temporarily” failed to warm at the rate predicted by climate alarmists.”

So why did they fail to predict the influence of the SAM?
Could it be that they have no idea what the hell is going on? Could it be that they really couldn’t predict what they will have for lunch?

Greg
September 4, 2021 12:31 am

The IPCC says ozone recovery is counteracting some emission impacts

I’ve been saying for 10y that the late 20th c. warming was largely due to volcanic eruptions destroying stratospheric ozone and making it less opaque to incoming radiation.

This was falsely attributed to CFCs , the UN’s first attempt at global political control.

September 4, 2021 1:36 am

You need to have ozone depletion before you can have ozone recovery.

https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/

Serge Wright
September 4, 2021 1:42 am

That all makes no sense. How can AGW CC be offset by a recovery of the SAM due to ozone ?. Obviously they were wrong to assume that warming was from CO2 in the first place and rather than admit being wrong they come up with logic that is up there with the stuff peddled by dementia Joe.

DougP
September 4, 2021 4:46 am

Maybe the wetter weather is caused by some Solar System Alt Annular Multi Mode force that cycles in eons or epochs, I don’t really know since I haven’t been around long enough to see.

Wetter weather could well be caused by people, like I saw in results of silver iodide in the air back in the 1970s.

I’m in Australia too so will see if models or forecasts will say when wetter weather will start with a record early tropical wet season in a few months.

Tom
September 4, 2021 12:43 pm

Lets get back to R14 refrigerants! Lots cheaper and a lot more efficient, and the patents have expired!

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