Claim: Climate Change Could Make Hailstorms Worse

Essay by Eric Worrall

So what is the point of solar panels?

MAY 28, 2026 REPORT

Hailstorms could grow more dangerous and damaging with climate change

by Paul Arnold, Phys.org
edited by Gaby Clark, reviewed by Robert Egan

Hailstorms can be incredibly dangerous, posing risks to life and property. Then there’s the economic damage to cars, crops, and infrastructure caused by large balls of ice falling at high speed from the sky. And the problems could worsen as our planet heats up.

A new study published in Nature predicts that climate change could produce larger, more damaging hailstones in some regions. The editors of Nature have also published a Research Briefing in the same issue summarizing the work.

…

They found that hailstorm-induced damage worldwide is projected to increase by 36.5% to 42.1% by the late 21st century, depending on the scenario. Explaining this shift, they wrote, “Globally, increased low-level temperature and specific humidity drive a shift towards larger hailstones, with the frequency of ≥30-mm-diameter hailstones rising by 37.9–51.8%.”

At the same time, the frequency of small hailstones (less than 30 millimeters) is set to decrease by 4.2% to 12.3%.

The parts of the planet most likely to suffer the greatest damage are North America, Europe, and Asia. But it’s not all bad news, as the tropics and subtropics will see a decrease in overall hail frequency because the smaller stones will melt completely before hitting the ground.

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Read more: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-hailstorms-dangerous-climate.html

The abstract of the study;

• Article
• Published: 27 May 2026

Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world

• Shiyi Zhang  (张诗怡), 
• Qinghong Zhang  (张庆红), 
• John T. Allen & 
• Xiangyu Lin  (林翔宇) 

Nature volume 653, pages 1069–1077 (2026) Cite this article

• 34 Altmetric
• Metrics details

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses^1,2,3,4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale changes^{2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}, whereas global-scale assessments of hailstone size remain scarce. Here we show a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, with the magnitude determined by the emission scenario. Our results arise from hailstone trajectory simulations conducted under historical and future scenarios, driven by EC-Earth3 ensemble outputs¹⁰ that are cross-validated through multimodel comparisons. Globally, increased low-level temperature and specific humidity drive a shift towards larger hailstones, with the frequency of ≥30-mm-diameter hailstones rising by 37.9–51.8% and <30-mm-diameter hailstones declining by 4.2–12.3%. Regionally, the mid-high latitudes predominantly exhibit increased hail damage potential owing to strong warming and weak moistening, amplifying instability sufficiently to counteract enhanced drag and melting effects. Conversely, tropical and monsoonal regions experience reduced hail damage potential owing to weak warming, strong moistening and limited hail growth depth. Our findings highlight the non-uniform impacts of ACC on global hailstorm damage, providing critical insights for future disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10543-2

Although the full study is paywalled, it seems likely the study plays fast and loose with thermodynamics. Simplistic models which suggest warmer average surface temperatures would drive more severe weather without limit are just wrong. The total energy available to drive the climate system is set by the amount of sunlight being absorbed by the Earth – and big hailstorms require a lot of energy.

Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate

F. LALIBERTÉ, J. ZIKA, L. MUDRYK, P. J. KUSHNER, J. KJELLSSON, AND K. DÖÖS

SCIENCE
30 Jan 2015
Vol 347, Issue 6221
pp. 540-543

DOI: 10.1126/science.12571031,23160

Because the rain falls and the wind blows

Global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but it might also make the atmosphere less energetic. Laliberté et al. modeled the atmosphere as a classical heat engine in order to evaluate how much energy it contains and how much work it can do (see the Perspective by Pauluis). They then used a global climate model to project how that might change as climate warms. Although the hydrological cycle may increase in intensity, it does so at the expense of its ability to do work, such as powering large-scale atmospheric circulation or fueling more very intense storms.

Science, this issue p. 540; see also p. 475

Abstract

Incoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. Here, we investigate the engine’s work output using thermodynamic diagrams computed from reanalyzed observations and from a climate model simulation with anthropogenic forcing. We show that the work output is always less than that of an equivalent Carnot cycle and that it is constrained by the power necessary to maintain the hydrological cycle. In the climate simulation, the hydrological cycle increases more rapidly than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in warmer climates might limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.

Read more: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1257103

Even if they got the thermodynamics right, in a world where energy policy is driven by evidence and reason, any risk of more violent weather in the future should have long since ruled out fragile weather vulnerable systems like solar.