Monday Mirthiness – Follow The #COVID19 Science You Like

These days, these very weird days, pick up any newspaper or read any news website and you are bombarded with conflicting “science” information. Usually these are prefaced with “a new study says” to give credence to even the thinnest of claims, which often conflict with other “studies”. Early on we were told COVID-19 was highly contagious, based on inflated model numbers that later proved to be wrong, off by at least a factor of ten, and now reality has set in and it’s not so bad after all.

A perfect example is the science-study-as-propaganda-tool where Hydrochloroquinine (HCQ) was trashed as being ineffective, and even dangerous has now proven to be utterly false, based on bad data, was retracted, and was likely politically motivated due to President Trump endorsing HCQ treatments. Now we find it actually works.

Like climate science, it seems medical science, at least related to COVID-19, has become a bad joke of “science by press release”.

I can’t say we here at WUWT are any better, just look at the dizzying amount of conflicting information we’ve reported on here.

Our resident cartoonist Josh sums it up nicely:

Like his work? Buy him a pint.

93 thoughts on “Monday Mirthiness – Follow The #COVID19 Science You Like

  1. Your dose of wisdom for today: Following the science is not at all the same thing as following the scientists.

    • Not intended as a swipe at you Bro. Steve, but I get sick and tired of hearing: “Follow the Science”. I prefer to read the conclusions from an experiment conducted using the Scientific Method. (Observe, Question, Research, Hypothesize, Experiment, Test Hypothesis, Draw Conclusions, Report, Repeat). “Science” is not a destination, it’s a process which the history of the Sciences shows that works well. That is, until the neo-Luddites and those without the capacity for critical thinking took control.

    • Like mandatory mask wearing
      Wearing a motorcycle helmet reduces brain damage in the event of a crash- therefore y are required to wear a helmet when walking the dog

      • Not really a joke Joe. The average adult is plenty tall to fall and fracture their skull on pavement. Hit the edge of curb and it’s probably all over.

        Fortunately not too many people do this so it hasn’t gotten the attention it doesn’t need.

    • Very true. This is how I put it:
      Don’t listen to the scientists. Listen to the science.
      Chris

  2. https://canadafreepress.com/article/tin-foil-hats-amulets-rule-americas-response-to-wuflu

    The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense.

    On an office door we had a clock-face with TESTING in the noon position and RESTING in the 6 o’clock position. While RESTING, bosses would come in and demand to know what we testers were doing to fix the problem. So we make Ju-ju Sticks out of bright flashy tinkly office trash, and we’d wave the Ju-ju Stick and chant incantations. After the responsible parties had fixed the problem, perhaps at the next pre-test briefing, we testers would claim credit for having waved our Ju-ju Stick – post hoc ergo propter hoc.

  3. – The evidence is that HCQ does help, though a few steroidal medications are more effective. Convalescent plasma is also really good.

    – Remdesivir does not save any lives, but for those that would pull through, the hospitalization time is halved.

    – N95 masks (when properly used) do prevent catching Covid, while regular exam masks and cloth masks tend to prevent spreading. If you don’t want a workplace shutdown, minimize
    the risk.

    – The respiratory mayhem of Covid is only part of the story. There’s some really weird stuff going on with clotting issues.

    – Symptoms and severity are incredibly random. A ninty six year old in a nursing home can be asymptomatic, while a forty five year old is sick as a dog, and a thirty year old is fine until stroking out. It’s a roll of the dice.

    • And it’s primarily an old folks disease. The likelihood of a 30 year old dying from it is very slight.

        • Hey, the hospital needs the $40k. Put 1000 patients on ventilators, you’ve earned a cool $40m. If HCQ and Invermectin keep people out of hospital, what’s in it for Big Med? Never let a crisis go to waste. Sell drugs.

      • Actually, if it really was a designer virus, it sounds like one of those greenie human-culling designs – weeding out the sick and the old, since modern human society won’t do it for them.

      • well we lost 2 30yr olds in Victoria Aus this last week co morbidities non mentioned male, majority are 70 and up to 90
        but theres a few kids and others as well.
        nursing home patients and nursing staff are about equal apparently.
        if youre stressed sick or vit D low etc which would cover most of the above..oops

    • “– Symptoms and severity are incredibly random. A ninty six year old in a nursing home can be asymptomatic, while a forty five year old is sick as a dog, and a thirty year old is fine until stroking out. It’s a roll of the dice.”

      More like loaded dice and a pile of crap. What we’re witnessing realtime is how a virus with superpowers gets added to the pantheon of virus mythology.

    • To understand Covid-19, IMHO, one needs to understand a few things:

      1. Weak, but contagious. Covid-19 is a coronavirus that is highly contagious (spreads easily) but fairly weak at killing cells or tissue.
      2. Second phase is inflammation that kills. However, in a subset of patients, mostly with weak immune systems, the virus initiates an out of control inflammatory reaction that does destroy tissue, especially lungs. This inflammation starts after several days of infection.
      3. T cells key. As with other viruses, cellular immunity, so-called T cells (thymus-derived cells) is likely more important than antibody or B-cell immunity. T-cell immunity diminishes in our old age.
      4. Usually a respiratory virus. Inhaled, the virus affects the upper airways (the common cold, which is often caused by coronavirus as well as rhinovirus, adenovirus, and others) first…..but if it reaches down into the lungs, bronchitis and/or pneumonia arise.
      5. But also a blood vessel virus. This coronavirus virus surprised by infecting blood vessel lining cells, endothelial cells. If these lining cells are inflamed, by whatever cause, blood clots may form, leading to strokes, heart attacks, or pulmonary embolism depending where the clots arise or travel to. Much of the covid deaths are from clots.
      6. Treat ASAP. Treatment must affect all these elements. Antivirals often work well only if given early. This is true for Tamiflu for influenza and also acyclovir for herpesvirus infections from herpes cold sores, shingles, or herpes brain infections. It is not surprising that early studies of remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine showed minImal benefit—-they usually were not started until patients were already severely ill.
      7. Fight clotting! Anti-clotting medicine is important, again to be given early.
      8. Steroids, even late. Anti-inflammatory steroids, especially dexamethasone, help even fairly late, because it is inflammation, not the virus, that is killing the patient towards the end.
      9. Antivirals might reduce contagion. A reason to give antivirals is to improve the epidemic. Soon after antivirals are started the virus counts in the patient improve. This should make the patient less contagious for others.

      • Great summary. Add that many already have T cell immunity from previous Covid infections, not 19 but one of the many other Covid virus variants. Blood samples were taken from blood stored well before Covid 19 and about half or more were positive for Covid 19 T cell immunity. Medcram’ latest you tube video (101) has the breakdown and a good one, as usual for that site.

        As an aside, my son in LA and two of his neighbors came down with a very bad cold that went right to the lungs with fever in November/December of last year. His friends were recently tested and they were positive for antibodies so he is looking to be tested. This thing has been with us a lot longer than we think.

  4. The corrupt use of science and the label “science” was pioneered large-scale by CAGW, now employed to just about everything.

    • No, the corruption predated AGW. It began when the ignorant first became aware of the effects of things not-visible. There is vast demotic ignorance published on radiation and radioactivity.

      • Of course the corruption was already there, but it hadn’t been put in such an open, massive, country-wide effort as now.

      • “There is vast demotic ignorance published on radiation and radioactivity.”

        In one case that was useful. We were losing sheep from a trial to the “wild mutton” market.

        So we put up a series of “radiation warning” signs around the trial area. The design was right, though the colours weren’t. Nor was the lack of security fence.

        The losses stopped.

        Seemed there was enough “knowledge” to know that you can’t see it and that it sends you sterile

  5. From the cartoon …

    Is there a randomised control trial …

    The problem with science is small effect sizes. In the case with small effect sizes, you have to control for absolutely everything. So, you can claim that a drug has a 10% chance of making you better. Even then, controlling for absolutely everything, we find that most published research findings are wrong.

    With large effect sizes the problem goes away. The problem then is that most researchers will go their entire careers without doing an experiment that exhibits a large effect size.

    If the effect is large enough, you don’t actually need a randomised control trial. If the effect is small enough, the randomised control trial probably won’t guarantee its validity.

  6. The real problem from a data standpoint in the US is hospitals are given large sums of money if they treat a CV-19 patient. So everyone that comes through the door becomes one. Also ventilated people give them bonuses so you are likely to go on one if given the opportunity. From the health care perspective, it’s all about the money… period.

    • Yes. And the FDA has far too cozy a relationship with Pharmaceutical companies. They have no interest in seeing a cheap drug be successful. I noticed former head of FDA Margaret Hamburg sits on board of Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. If you approve cheap drug for treatment of Covid19 then good luck getting cushy seat on a board of directors.

    • I don’t blame the hospitals too much. They are between a rock and a hard place. Because of the lockdowns, most of their non-emergency procedures are ‘banned,’ while their expenses remain the same. If the government says you get an extra $15,000 even if the deceased is only suspected of having COVID (but not tested positive), you are going to make sure that as many deceased “died” of COVID as you can get away with. For some hospitals, especially in smaller cities, it means the difference between financial life and financial death. (Hospitals in smaller towns have been teetering on the edge of financial ruin for quite some time now.)

      Oh yeah, I do know someone who they did that to (her name was Markey). She was in her 90’s and had pretty much gotten over COVID-19 when she fell, hit her head, and suffered a massive cerebral hemorrhage. “Offical” cause of death COVID-19.

  7. Actually, it is not “follow the science you like” it is “follow the “science” you like”, since some of what is promoted as science, is not.

  8. Patrick, masks as being used by general public don’t work (loose fitting, being touched regularly, on/off face regularly, reused for weeks, get wet but still used). If they worked, Phillipines and Hong Kong were praised in the media for their mask use lockdowns. With their very high mask usage rates by the general public, both indoors and out, why are they locking down again?

    • the mask mandate – based on bad understanding science and the misapplication/misinterprestation of good science.

      A) the mode of transmission is primarily via aerosols, not droplets. Did you notice your glasses fogging up when wearing a mask – that is the aerosols escaping. Can someone give a coherent explanation as to why masks are effective. I will agree that mask can reduce transmission in the 10% – 20% range.

      B) Space and time each separately reduce the risk of transmission by 80-90% each. Combined those two factors reduce the risk of transmission by 95%+. Seriously if masks are only reducing the risk of transmission by 10% – 20%, how much additional reduction is there if space and time have already reduced the risk by 95+%? maybe %.5% at best.

  9. A lot of people wouldn’t know Science if it walked up and bit them.

    That would include all the Alarmists since a real scientist would see the holes in the Human-Caused Climate Change narrative in pretty short order. Therefore, Alarmists are not real scientists.

    • This made me think of Oliver Goldsmith’s poem An Elegy on the Death of a Mad Dog

      But soon a wonder came to light,
      That showed the rogues they lied;
      The man recovered of the bite,
      The dog it was that died.

      Perhaps there is a lesson here somewhere?

  10. The bottom line is that the medical establishment doesn’t appear to have the best interests of patients in mind, but rather are driven by (what else) money and politics. If I were to contract CV-19, I would want to be treated with either the HCQ cocktail, or the inhaled budesonide, which, like the HCQ approach also uses arithromycin and zinc.
    So when the medical establishment or their lackeys piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining, I don’t believe them. Sorry. The CDC and NIH can go to hell.

      • “During his organization’s latest briefing in Geneva, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom admitted publicly that Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines will not work”

        The All-Seeing, All-Knowing Dr. Tedros has spoken!

        I bet the $400 million Trump is withholding from the WHO is not coming out of Tedros’ salary.

        Tedros is the guy that couldn’t recognize a colera outbreak in his native country on two different occasions. Some claim he deliberately ignored the epidemic. Then the Chicom’s put him in as the head of the WHO.

        So we have a guy that can’t recognize an epidemic, and can’t tell the truth, running the WHO.

        I’m not going to put any faith in anything Tedros says. You shouldn’t, either.

  11. Whadda ya mean “these days”? We’ve been doing human sacrifice based on expert opinion since we’ve been organizing in larger groups. But yeah, it does seem to be spiking again.

  12. Median age of deaths between 80-86 .

    With a heavy viral load, deaths on the Princess Diamond with a ships compliment of 3,800 – 13. All already ill and over 70.

    Some pandemic!

    In the meantime 7,916,965 Communicable disease deaths since January and not a word about them.

  13. Where are the deaths? When a 7 year old boy in Georgia has a brain seizure and dies, this is counted as COVID-19. There should be a lot more deaths which are actually due to COVID-19. I am tired of inflated numbers, inflated because of the incessant demands for something to damage Pres Trump. The Dems cannot and will not govern. And they work tirelessly to make sure our Nation is not governed. Providing for the common defense and promoting the general welfare take a back seat to Orange Man Bad.

  14. A sharp court jester could often say what a royal advisor could not. He was able to communicate effectively by getting people to laugh rather than to have them involved in a brawl.

    We badly underestimate the value the right kind of cartoons can have in the whole climate discussion as a way to discredit the ridiculous statements of grossly overrated experts. As they resort to invective and personal attacks, it is far better to respond by getting people to laugh at them. The people, who are not used to careful analysis of the arguments or to logical reasoning, can by laughing at them demolish their ludicrous claims.

    I wish Josh every success in producing many cartoons to defang these vicious critics.

  15. We don’t have science anymore. We have political expediency and censoring and lock down of any contrary opinions no matter what the science says. I think this started with climate change but maybe I’m wrong. maybe it started sooner. In any case I fear science is dead. If it isn’t dead it’s certainly on a ventilator.

    • The Dark Ages, 2.0.

      Created by the failure of Big Education to teach critical thinking and logical analysis.

      In doing so, they purposely created “The Dumbest Generation”.

    • Miso,
      Thanks.
      I hadn’t realised the Ickenham Journal of Intense Dewatering was so impactless.
      Your help is appreciated.

      Auto

      I guess NEJM is some New Epstein Journal
      – Medicine?
      – Mendacity?
      – Microdentistry?

  16. HCQ is the border guard. Zn is the day after pill. AZ controls inflammatory response and safe sanctuaries for opportunistic pathogens.

  17. The old-fashioned standard is multiple, independent scientists, in order to increase signal diversity and improve detection in a noisy or corrupt environment.

  18. Here’s something that is confusing me.

    We are told that kids in the EU are going back to school and this is causing no problems.

    We are told that some U.S. schools that have opened classes are experiencing new infections among the kids and this is a big problem.

    It is my understanding that when kids go back to school, they *will* get infected with the Wuhan virus. The difference being that kids will supposedly not experience severe effects from the virus, and can just go about their business.

    Why are the Americans freaking out over infections showing up in American school children when they gather in large groups? Wasn’t this to be expected? I was expecting it.

    So why are these new infections among school kids seen as a problem?

    Why aren’t the Europeans freaking out over their schools kids?

    I don’t get it.

    • Tom Abbott: Why, indeed? Maybe because, in Europe, the press doesn’t have, as its primary mission, the need to destroy Trump (the need to destroy schools and economy are secondary goals that dovetail into the primary mission for the progressive press in the USA).

  19. I find it not only ludicrous, but worrying that the efficacy of HCQ should be SCIENTIFICALLY determined by political preference.

  20. This just in: A recent analysis of the heavy breathing of Darth Vader shows a remarkable likeness to the breathing of those with COV-19. George Lucas was asked about this, but simply said “No comment”. Further studies to come.

  21. I still cant believe the Big Ten football season was cancelled. They must be afraid of lawsuits from players.

    • Lawsuits from the family of players. Some one will figure out “loss of future revenue” from a player if he gets sick and can’t play enough to get drafted.

    • I’m surprised Mexico is in the limited early HCQ category. I thought you could buy it over the counter there.

  22. I can relate.

    I regularly watch the different local weather forecasts, check AccuWeather.com and Weather.com and pick the one I like best.

  23. Don’t believe any of them. In fact science bans that. You simply follow the predictions. We can all do that and should. Copy, paste, save and check back later to see if it happens.

    The brilliance of the scientific method is that you don’t have to know the subject in deep detail to ascertain if a theory is correct or not. Just follow the predictions.

  24. Or riding in a car? How many suffer brain injuries by hitting the windshield or being thrown around during an accident?

  25. It is no coincidence that we have similar issues with Covid 19 science and Global Warming science. It is because they are both being manipulated by the same people for the same reasons, which is to control the population at large.

    I had been watching what was going on with China with great interest during the start of 2020. Never doubted that we had a real virus on our hands. But certain reactions and statements by key figures that then reversed or went against what had been said or published before left me concerned. For instance I had read about how they knew to check HCQ by putting information about SARS 2 Corona Virus into a super computer and looking for things in common. Which brought up SARS 1, also a Corona Virus and that they had success with HCQ.

    I was shocked that when President Trump brought this up that people started attacking HCQ as a dangerous drug. Even though Dr. Fauci was on record years ago touting its effectiveness against Corona viruses. Plus my wife, who has Lupus, had taken HCQ for 25 years. Researching that drug before she began treatment showed us it was quite safe and even WebMD and Mayo all said so. Now it was a demon drug.

    Then in my work I’ve dealt with wearing respirators and SCBAs in dangerous atmospheres. In an a R&D job I had 30 years ago I conducted a one year long study comparing qualitative versus quantitative fit testing. I performed over a thousand fit tests of various respirators during this study. One thing I needed have researched was the idea that disposable masks or bandanas would provide protection against a sub micron virus and that high risk people who believed wearing such a thing would protect them were only putting themselves in harms way.

    I live in America, but I have Swedish ancestry. Right now I’m wishing that I was living in Sweden. In this issue, they chose well.

    • In France, that anti Plaquenil hysteria probably made people more likely to ask their doctor for Plaquenil as:

      1) While the benefits for Covid or corona patients was unclear, any medical person knew the risk profile was low.
      2) Plaquenil is known as the anti malaria drug and a lot of old French people could tell about their history of taking the drug to go to Africa, and how the drug was prescribed without afterthoughts and essentially zero medical supervision. Notably, no heart check up for a drug that is now allegedly very toxic for the heart.
      3) Plaquenil was taken for years while an efficient Covid treatment would be prescribed for a couple of weeks (or less).

      Or essentially the whole thing backfired. Badly.

      What I call: propaganda one bridge too far. Or maybe in that case, a couple of bridges.

      The end result is that the MSM was even more discredited, the medical establishment is too, and notably the scientific societies like the Academies and the “SPILF” which sounds like a joint but is actually a medical society for infectious disease, or something. (To become publicly known and be publicly discredited at the same time is a kind of record.)

  26. Miso,
    Thanks.
    I hadn’t realised the Ickenham Journal of Intense Dewatering was so impactless.
    Your help is appreciated.

    Auto
    I guess NEJM is some New Epstein Journal
    – Medicine?
    – Mendacity?
    – Microdentistry?

  27. Anthony :
    “These days, these very weird days, pick up any newspaper or read any news website and you are bombarded with conflicting “science” information. Usually these are prefaced with “a new study says” to give credence to even the thinnest of claims, which often conflict with other “studies”………..
    “I can’t say we here at WUWT are any better, just look at the dizzying amount of conflicting information we’ve reported on here.”

    Reflective of a very chaotic event.

    I’d like to take a look at any Covid information that we can consider “solid” (easily seen, easily reproduced, makes a modicum of sense, consistent):

    No particular order….

    1) The virus causing Covid-19 various symptoms is pretty well identified (the spiky ball thing). We know its genetic code (with some strain variation).

    2) The virus is pretty contagious. Similar to flu and cold viruses. No real point in trying to qualify this any further as the variation in time, hosts (ie people), environmental factors (temperature, humidity, etc) and strains ensure transmission is highly variable. Bottom line, less exposure, probably equals less chance of infection.

    3) The disease/symptoms caused by the virus are all over the map. Seems to be worse than any cold, and perhaps as bad as a bad flu (but overall worse outcome due to no vaccine yet widely available). Again, no point in trying to qualify further…too many variables. If you are already sick from something, you will probably be sicker from this virus.

    4) Clearly certain demographics are fairing worse from this virus. Not politically correct to discuss though…so no point in trying to qualify further…:)

    5) Various treatments are available. Some work better than others under different circumstances and demographics and strains, and a bunch of other variables. “Take an aspirin and rest….drink plenty of fluids”…Stay away from ventilators if at all possible…

    6) Various vaccines are already up and running. (see item #1). The Russians will deploy first (thanks!) :). Some will work better than others, and some will provide longer immunity (or some level of protection) than others. Some won’t do squat.

    7) Some people are already pretty much immune from this virus. Don’t even think about trying to qualify this….might be 1% in one place and 90% someplace else…your guess.

    8) If you think you have any of items #1-7 “nailed” further, you’re probably wrong. Murphy is in charge.

    The most discouraging aspect of Covid-19 is the continuous, pathetic and pointless attempt by just about everybody to over quantify something that has so many chaotic variables. Sound familiar…it should be to the various denizens of WUWT.

    Bottom line: You cannot quantify or qualify something which does not in reality posses such attributes.

    “Prediction” : This virus will (all too) slowly sink into relative oblivion. Within 1-5 years we will all be discussing some “new” disaster.

    Regards,
    Ethan Brand

  28. No matter what you say to someone who has solidified their faith in something, they will label what you say as something else, and just repeat what it is they said that elicited your offer to improve their thought process.

    EXAMPLE:

    Mask zombie says, ” I believe in masks, just wear the damn thing, have respect for others.”

    Rational thinker says, “No quality evidence exists to support mass masking.”

    Mask zombie replies, “You are just talking politics now, just wear the damn thing and have respect for others.”

    Rational thinker says nothing, walks away, shaking head.

    • “Politic” is now used as the ultimate ad hominem reply.

      “It’s politic” means “I reject your point because they might have a political impact, they ridicule my own policies (which are political by definition), and I don’t have a refutation (or debunking in today’s degenerated language)”.

      Example: the congressional hearing (comité du Sénat) about the Benalla scandal is doing “de la politique”. (Benalla was a Macron body guard, even though officially he was not. Also, he played video games with Jawad Bendaoud, who hosted Islamic terrorists… Benalla had four diplomatic passports. He was gifted with the Thales Theorem, and an old but highly secured encrypted phone that not even top cops have in France.)

  29. Is there evidence (preferably some RCT) that “following Science” (whatever that is) makes people happier or more fit?

  30. Vitamin D level has a strong correlation to outcome, more is better. Supplements and sunshine are cheap and available. Use them.
    UV B inactivates the virus. Always get a shopping cart that has been left out in the sun.
    Air Conditioning spreads disease. Think Legionnaire Disease.
    Out side open air has movement and disperses any droplets.
    Masks are mostly theater, but using them inside an air conditioned store won’t do any harm. Outside on a nice sunny day, or alone in your car, get a life.

    The quality of official information is pathetic. The press and the official medical community have squandered any credibility. Pay as much heed to them as you would an email offer of wealth from Nigeria.

  31. “Early on we were told COVID-19 was highly contagious, based on inflated model numbers that later proved to be wrong”

    The problem was the start date. Once the correct date is used, October 2019, it clearly spreads much slower and is less contagious.

  32. “I can’t say we here at WUWT are any better, just look at the dizzying amount of conflicting information we’ve reported on ”

    True that. But never too late for some honest introspection. Still better than most I guess.

  33. I can’t say we here at WUWT are any better, just look at the dizzying amount of conflicting information we’ve reported on here.

    1) WUWT has been reporting every prima facie credible story. Yes, they frequently conflict; that is the nature of the beast – anything like this issue is plagued by initial ignorance which is only slowly cured. Add in political bias, and there is no avoiding conflict. Unlike most other media, however, every one of these reports has appeared on your “Page A-1” – not the ones you like as the headliner, and the contradiction/retraction buried somewhere in the gardening section, or at 2:00 AM on a Friday night.

    2) You do not censor comments that are relevant, whatever angle they come from. If they touch on the subject, they are allowed through (sometimes snipped where the flames get a bit too hot – reasonable). One of the main things that brings me here is that you actually have a cadre of unpaid reporters in the comment section that have the expertise, time, and in some cases the access without draining their own bank account to read and analyze the source documents in the journals. You do not find that elsewhere.

    Far, far too hard on yourself, Anthony. Please, don’t change a thing.

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