The Week That Was: 2020-08-08 (August 8, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “What we observe is not Nature itself but Nature exposed to our methods of questioning.” –Werner Heisenberg, also “We have to remember that what we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our methods of questioning.” – Ludwig Wittgenstein
Number of the Week: Zero (0)
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
July Summary Part V; General Conclusions: Four weeks ago TWTW reviewed Richard Lindzen’s new paper summarizing what we know with reasonable certainty, what we suspect, and what we know is incorrect about climate change, the greenhouse effect, temperature trends, climate modeling, ocean chemistry, and sea level rise. Key parts included (with additions in boldface):
1) The climate system is never in equilibrium.
2) The core of the system consists of two turbulent fluids interacting with each other and unevenly heated by the sun, which results in transport of heat from the equator towards the poles (meridional) creating ocean cycles that may take 1,000 years to complete.
3) The two most important substances in the greenhouse effect are water vapor and clouds, which are not fully understood and are not stable.
4) A vital component of the atmosphere is water in its liquid, solid, and vapor phases and the changes in phases have immense dynamic consequences.
5) Doubling carbon dioxide, (CO2), creates a 2% disturbance to the normal flow of energy into the system and out of the system, which is similar to the disturbance created by changes in clouds and other natural features. Given the turbulent conditions of the climate system that cannot be described by equations, the concept of forcing has little meaning.
6) Temperatures in the tropics have been extremely stable. It is the temperature differences between the tropics and polar regions that are extremely important. Calculations such as global average temperature largely ignore this important difference.
Three weeks ago, TWTW used the work of William van Wijngaarden and William Happer (W & H) to summarize what we know with reasonable certainty, what we suspect, and what we know is incorrect about the greenhouse effect. Both the gentlemen are experts in Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physics (AMO), which is far from simple physics, but is necessary to understand how greenhouse gases interfere with (delay) the radiation of energy from the surface into space – that is, to understand the mechanisms by which the earth loses heat every night.
1)There is no general understanding of the greenhouse effect sufficient to develop elegant equations.
2) The optical depth or optical thickness of the atmosphere (transparency) changes as altitude changes. The depth is measured in terms of a natural logarithm and, in this instance, relates to distance a photon of a particular frequency can travel before it is absorbed by an appropriate molecule (one that absorbs and re-emits photons of that frequency).
3) Unlike other natural greenhouse gases, water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas, is not evenly distributed in the atmosphere. [SEPP Comment: The variability of water vapor during the daytime and the formation of clouds from H2O, etc., combine to make impossible theoretical computations of “climate” dynamics with any value. Because water vapor varies hourly, daily, and seasonally and by location, the Charney Report recognized a decent calculation was impossible. So, it went down the erroneous path of ignoring H2O, and assumed a CO2 value; and then came back in with a “feedback” concept to try to account for H2O. The concept fails and continues to be a poor modeling practice that produces failures.
5) “Saturation” means that adding more molecules causes little change in Earth’s radiation to space. The very narrow range in which methane (CH4) can absorb and emit photons is already saturated by water vapor (H2O), the dominant greenhouse gas, below the tropopause, where the atmosphere is thick. Thus, adding methane has little effect on temperatures.
6) The high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN) is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters used to calculate and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere. The database project started by the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (AFCRL) in the late 1960s in response to the need for detailed knowledge of the infrared properties of the atmosphere. “The goal of HITRAN is to have a self-consistent set of parameters. However, at the same time the requirement is to archive the most accurate parameters possible. It must be emphasized that the parameters that exist in HITRAN are a mixture of calculated and experimental. Often the experimentally determined values are more accurate than the calculated ones, and vice versa.” From this database, W & H calculate that a doubling of CO2 will increase temperatures by no more than 1.5 ⁰ C – an upper bound, based on what we know about the atmosphere today. This upper bound is similar to the one calculated by Apollo veteran scientists and engineers in TRCS team. The Apollo veterans participated in the hallmark of NASA’s space program.
Two weeks ago, TWTW reviewed the problems with models as discussed by established Japanese climate modeler Mototaka Nakamura and as demonstrated in a new paper by Ross McKitrick and John Christy. Previously, Tony Thomas summarized some of the main problems identified by Nakamura:
• Ignorance about large and small-scale ocean dynamics.
• A complete lack of meaningful representations of aerosol changes that generate clouds.
• Lack of understanding of drivers of ice-albedo (reflectivity) feedbacks: “Without a reasonably accurate representation, it is impossible to make any meaningful predictions of climate variations and changes in the middle and high latitudes and thus the entire planet.”
• Inability to deal with water vapor elements.
• Arbitrary “tunings” (fudges) of key parameters that are not understood.
Further, Nakamura rejects the IPCC concept that the influence of humans adding CO2 can be predicted by models. He states:
“I want to point out a simple fact that it is impossible to correctly predict even the sense or direction of the change of a system when the prediction tool lacks and/ or grossly distorts important nonlinear processes, feedbacks in particular, that are present in the actual system.” [Boldface added.] In short, we simply do not know whether the feedbacks will amplify or dampen disturbances to the system.
Nakamura further states that two major problems in the models are ocean flows (ocean circulation) and water in the atmosphere. Both problems are stated by Lindzen.
McKitrick and Christy tested the values calculated from 38 new CMIP6 models for the time period 1979 to 2014 with datasets from three different types of observations. 1) Four different sets of Radiosonde (or sonde) data obtained from weather balloons. 2) Four different sets of data obtained by microwave sensors onboard polar orbiting satellites which measure intensity of microwave emissions from atmospheric oxygen which are directly proportional to temperature. 3) Four different datasets known as Reanalyses, two from Europe, one from Japan and one from the US, NASA.
The 12 datasets cover 35 years and have been available for at least 5 years. The three different types of datasets from observations are grouped tightly both for global and the tropics. For most of the models, the mean for satellite observations is below the lower part of the 95% confidence interval for that model, indicating that the model cannot estimate atmospheric temperature trends. As Nakamura has written, the global climate models have no predictive value. The UN IPCC and its followers have clearly departed from the scientific method into the world of wild speculation.
The June 27 TWTW linked to Roy Spencer’s comparison of the results of 13 CMIP6 models with surface temperature data, which are far less comprehensive than atmospheric data and subject to many more human and natural influences than atmospheric data. The CMIP6 models produce significantly more warming than the older CMIP5 models and overestimate the HadCRUT4 surface warming tend by about 50%. Thus, the Climate Models tested have little or no demonstrated ability to predict surface temperature trends now or into the future.
Last week, TWTW discussed two efforts to distort the influence of carbon dioxide: one, changing ocean chemistry, so-called ocean acidification; and two, so-called accelerating sea level rise. Some of the most fertile areas of the oceans are those that experience upwellings, prevailing deep ocean currents come to the surface, bringing nutrients and increased carbon dioxide from the bottom. In turn, these promote photosynthesis, plant and animal life, and the beginning of the marine food chain. As described by Jim Steele, in 2006 to 2008 the US Pacific Northwest experienced a particularly strong upwelling which caused an oyster die-off.
The die-off was not from atmospheric CO2, but from the oyster industry importing Pacific oysters from Japan, which did not evolve in the Pacific Northwest. These oysters simply release their eggs into the water because they evolved in waters that do not experience rapid changes in pH from upwellings. Thus, in 2006-2008, during strong changes in pH, the eggs and larvae died. Conversely, the Olympia oysters native to the Pacific Northwest “brood” their larvae in their shells where the pH is more controlled. These natural conditions which caused the 2006-2008 die-off were complicated by actions by the Northwest oyster farmers.
In discussing the so-called acceleration of sea level rise, TWTW discussed the observed rate of sea level change at geologically stable Newlyn, Cornwall, England, as presented in a paper by E. Bradshaw in the Journal of Marine Geodesy. There are two different rates of change, one, a hundred-year rate of change as measured by tidal gages of 1.8 mm/per year (7 inches per century). The second rate of change is 3.8 mm/per year (15 inches per century) over a 11-year time period (from 1993-2014) as measured by satellites. One cannot say that the second rate of change is the correct one and sea level rise is accelerating, because over the one hundred-year tidal gage record there have been several other periods with rates of change similar to the satellite one. Thus, a claim of sea level rise increasing is a hasty conclusion based on a change of instrumentation.
Greenhouse Gases and the Greenhouse Effect: On July 18, TWTW discussed a paper by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer (W & H) published by the CO2 Coalition. The paper is based on calculations using the HITRAN database discussed above. The paper illustrates the type of calculations involved, which John Kerry called simple physics, demonstrating he knows not of what he speaks.
W & H present various figures demonstrating the idealized outflow of radiant energy from earth to space and identify the frequencies in which specific greenhouse gases reduce that outflow, warming the earth. The paper illustrates the importance of water vapor and that water vapor’s absorption frequencies overlap those of certain greenhouse gases that can slow outgoing radiation. One of those gases for which the absorption frequencies are already saturated by water vapor is methane. Thus, as illustrated in Figure # 4 (p. 11) of the paper, a doubling of methane produces little increase in the absorption of outgoing radiation. The fear of livestock creating dangerous warming is not substantiated by observations.
Also, Figure # 5 (p. 12) illustrates the calculated increase in the greenhouse effect if CO2 is doubled, slight; and the decrease in the greenhouse effect if CO2 is eliminated, significant. The significant effect of eliminating CO2 as compared with doubling is consistent with the logarithmic relationship between greenhouse gases and temperature.
Further, the figures illustrate that water vapor influences outgoing radiation over a broad range of frequencies. Given the interrelationship between the influence of water vapor with other greenhouse gases, the practice of the IPCC modelers to make estimates of the turbulent atmosphere without water vapor first, then add a calculation for water vapor, is contrary to what happens in nature. There is no logical reason to assume the greenhouse effect is calculated correctly. Given the great overestimates of atmospheric warming by the global climate models, it is doubtful that total greenhouse effect is properly calculated. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
General Conclusions [subject to change as data change]:
The oceans and the atmosphere are complex systems that cannot be accurately described mathematically at this time.
The Greenhouse Effect in the atmosphere is complex and cannot be accurately described mathematically at this time.
There is no physical evidence demonstrating that adding carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing a dangerous greenhouse warming of the atmosphere, thus of the earth.
The claim of ocean acidification from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is false and misleading.
The claim that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing an acceleration of sea level change is not substantiated by long-term sea level trends from geologically stable tidal gauges and may be a temporary condition.
The global climate models predicting or forecasting dangerous warming in the future do not describe what is happening in the atmosphere or on the surface, thus have no predictive value.
The benefits of increased CO2 to plant life and the environment are well established, but frequently ignored.
The benefits of the greenhouse effect to life on the planet by keeping it warmer at night and suitable for habitation are well established, but frequently ignored.
Thus, there is no compelling physical evidence that humanity should change its use of fossil fuels, unless something more reliable and more affordable is developed that does not require costly storage to make it reliable. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC, Challenging the Orthodoxy, and Seeking a Common Ground.
Atmospheric Temperature Trends: On their respective blogs, Roy Spencer and the Earth System Science Center, UAH, have posted the atmospheric temperature trends for July 2020. Spencer notes:
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
In the view of TWTW, the 40 year plus trends are not alarming. The trends indicate that the claims that warming is hiding in the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere are spurious, bogus. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
Primary Productivity: As used in ecology, primary production is the ability of organic compounds, through photosynthesis, to use light energy to convert inorganic chemical compounds including carbon dioxide into organic compounds. Almost all life on Earth relies directly or indirectly on primary production. CO2 Science reviews a paper on “Long-term Trends in Global Gross Primary Productivity.” As the review states:
“In considering all of the above, it is clear that fears of a soon-to-be-collapsing terrestrial biosphere are vastly overstated. Rather than declining in vigor as so many climate alarmists falsely claim, the world’s land vegetation is increasing its robustness, and has been doing so for over at least the past eleven decades.
“Ironically, the reason for that enhancement is the very action climate alarmists claim should be decimating it: humanity’s increasing use of fossil fuels. [Boldface italics in the original.]
“The combustion of fossil fuels is the principal driver of the contemporary increase witnessed in both atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition. And, if you believe the climate alarmists that rising CO2 is the sole cause of modern warming, well, you can add the positive effects from a warming climate to CO2 and nitrogen deposition as an attributable factor driving the positive trends in GPP.
“Humanity and nature should therefore be thankful for the use of fossil fuels instead of demonizing it as so many climate alarmists do. They couldn’t be more misguided.”
Further, after a 25-yearr study of Harvard Forest, in central Massachusetts, the researchers wrote:
“Since 2000, NPP [Net primary production] has increased by 26%. For the period 1992–2015, NEP [Net ecosystem production] increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for ~30% of the increase in productivity.”
Amusingly, the researchers could not admit the benefits of more CO2. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide and Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science.
Wind Power Failure: On her blog, Jo Nova presents two different weather conditions that result in the failure of wind power in Australia. She writes:
“The sharpest power cuts are happening in between the high-pressure cells. As the wind picks up, production maximizes, only to crash as turbines hit their safety cut off points and drop out of production suddenly. About 50 times a year generation across the entire Australian wind farm grid falls by 500MW or more within one hour or less.
“On the other hand, when large cell weather patterns traverse Australia whole windfarm regions are becalmed and rendered useless within hours. This sort of failure can be as large as 2 to 4 GW of power disappearing in less than nine hours. This is like a whole coal power plant or even two (with 8 different units) producing virtually nothing. It never happens with coal, but it happens about twenty times a year with wind power.”
Apparently, those politicians insisting on replacing reliable power from fossil fuels and nuclear with offshore wind believe that such weather conditions do not appear near their friendly shores, such as East Coast hurricanes or Nor’easters. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
No TWTW Next Week: There will be no TWTW on the weekend of August 15. TWTW will resume the weekend of August 22.
Vote for Aprils Fools Award: The voting for the SEPP’s April Fools Award will be continued until August 10. The winner will be announced on August 22. The leading contenders are the darling of global warming alarmists, Greta Thunberg; and the leader of stellar examples of what not to do with numerical modeling, be definitive without double-checking assumption and data, the computer modelers at Imperial College represented by Neil Ferguson.
Other nominees include Popular Naturalist David Attenborough, Professor and Political Commentator Brian Cox, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada. Get your votes in by Monday.
Number of the Week: Zero – (0). All CMIP6 models tested against actual temperature trends, both atmospheric and surface, failed to be within 5% of the data, a standard for reliability of statistical estimates. Much worse, for the atmosphere, the 95% confidence intervals of almost all the models failed to include the 95% confidence intervals of three different atmospheric datasets. And these models are being used to make temperature predictions of 30, 80, and 180 years out?
Simply, as the Quotes of the Week suggest, the modelers and the government entities that sponsor them are not asking the right questions.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Australia’s Universities Face Sweeping Review Of Free Speech Code
By Staff, The Australian, Via GWPF, Aug 6, 2020
NPR fires weatherman for comparing Seattle riots to Germany in 1938 on his personal blog
By Ari Hoffman, The Post Millennial, Aug 7, 2020
“Dozens of police have been seriously injured by bottles and fireworks, or partially blinded by lasers. Even in my neighborhood, graffiti calling for the killing of police have been sprayed at a prominent location. No city can remain healthy if such anti-social activities are allowed to continue unchecked.”
Seattle: A City in Fear Can Be Restored
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Aug 5, 2020
See link immediately above.
VICTORY FOR SCIENCE! German Research Foundation Regrets Censorship, Reinstate’s Critic’s Statement
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 7, 2020
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions
By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020
Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers
By R. McKitrick and J. Christy, forthcoming: Earth and Space Science
Methane and Climate
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, CO2 Coalition, April 2020
CMIP6 Climate Models Producing 50% More Surface Warming than Observations since 1979
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 25, 2020
How Climate Change Panic Costs us Trillions
Interview with Bjorn Lomborg, Heartland Daily Podcase, Via WUWT, Aug3, 2020
The Hidden Costs Of Net Zero
“If Ministers pay heed to Travers on the costs and practicality of their policies, they will reconsider de-carbonization and look instead at going nuclear or choosing adaptation over mitigation. But practicality and government live increasingly separate lives—the former in this world, the latter in Utopia. And a reconciliation between them is probably a catastrophe away.”
Emperor penguin numbers rise as biologists petition for IUCN Red List upgrade
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bears Science, Aug 6, 2020
Defending the Orthodoxy
In tackling the global climate crisis, doom and optimism are both dangerous traps
Overheated polemics won’t solve this emergency – and the apocalypse is a needlessly high bar for action
By Zeke Hausfather and Richard Betts, The Guardian, Aug 6, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“Zeke Hausfather is director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute in Oakland, California. Richard Betts is head of climate impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter.”
[SEPP Comment: What global climate crisis?]
US could avoid 4.5M early deaths by fighting climate change, study finds
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 5, 2020
Possibly the recent research: Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions
By Drew Shindell, Faluvegi, Seltzer, and Cary Shindell, Nature Climate Change, March 19, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Unable to find any recent study supporting the wild claims of the lead researcher formerly with NASA-GISS.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Physical Climate Science NOW Settled? (Dessler says yes)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 6, 2020
The EIA is Misleading Americans
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 4, 2020
[SEPP Comment: As reliable electricity is being forced out of the market by subsidized, low variable cost wind and solar, the cost of electricity to the consumer will rise because the subsidized generation needs reliable backup.]
New Video : Mid-Year Climate Crisis Report
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 7, 2020
Pure and Sterile
By Viv Forbes, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Aug 8, 2020
Change in US Administrations
Trump faces another challenge to rewrite of bedrock environmental law NEPA
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 6, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Green groups that profit from litigation by increased fund raising don’t like simplification.]
In a warming world, New England’s trees are storing more carbon
Unprecedented 25-year study traced forest carbon through air, trees, soil, and water
News Release, Harvard University, Aug 4, 2020
Link to paper: Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long‐Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change
By Adrien Finzi, et al, Ecological Monographs, Aug 4, 2020
New Study: Rising CO2 Drives Post-1980s Greening…Which Cools The Earth And Offsets 29% Of Human Emissions
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 6, 2020
Link to paper: Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations
By Vanessa Haverd, et al, Global Change Biology, Feb 4, 2020
Watching CO2 feed the world
By David Wojick, CFACT, Aug 1, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China’s Geostrategic Priorities Become Clear: Oil not Wind…
By John Constable, GWPF, Aug 7, 2020
“China’s offshore wind installations for 2019 and its plans for the end of the decade are catching headlines. Less well reported, in the United Kingdom at least, is the vastly more significant evidence that China is acting firmly to reduce western influence in the Persian Gulf and thus secure Middle Eastern oil supplies on a scale dwarfing current and probable future wind energy output. China’s offshore wind(ow) dressing should be discounted entirely; Beijing’s engineer bureaucrats know that oil is the key to an energy policy that serves their national interest.”
China now has half of the worlds coal power fleet
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 5, 2020
By Leonie Kijewski, DPA Brussels, Gulf Times, Aug 6, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Seeking a Common Ground
U.S. Navy Weather and Ocean Prediction: A Conversation with Rear Admiral John Okon
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Aug 4, 2020
The HITRAN Database
By Staff, HITRAN online, Accessed Aug 7, 2020
By E. Bradshaw, Journal of Marine Geodesy, Mar 18, 2020
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Europe’s Top Health Officials Say Masks Aren’t Helpful in Beating COVID-19
The top medical experts in the world can’t decide if masks are helpful in reducing the spread of COVID-19 or just make things worse.
By Jon Miltimore, Foundation for Economic Education, Aug 6, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Los Angeles to cut off water, power to properties hosting large gatherings
Mayor Eric Garcetti is looking to shut offenders down ‘permanently’
By Brittany De Lea, Fox News, Aug 5, 2020
The conservative’s guide to acting on climate change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 4, 2020
The Combined Influence of Temperature and CO2 on Powdery Mildew Disease in Zucchini
Gullino, M.L., Tabone, G., Gilardi, G. and Garibaldi, A. 2020. Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on the management of powdery mildew of zucchini. Journal of Phytopathology, DOI: 10.1111/jph.12905. Aug 7, 2020
Over Four Decades of Coral Reef Resilience in the Eastern Tropical Pacific
Romero-Torres, M., Acosta, A., Palacio-Castro, A.M., Treml, E.A., Zapata, F.A., Paz-García, D.A. and Porter, J.W. 2020. Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15126. Aug 5, 2020
Schwalm, C.R., Huntinzger, D.N., Michalak, A.M., Schaefer, K., Fisher, J.B., Fang, Y. and Wei, Y. 2020. Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th century. Scientific Reports 10: 9059. Aug 3, 2020
UAH Global Temperature Update for July 2020: +0.44 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 3, 2020
Global Temperature Report, Earth System Science Center, UAH, July 2020
Maps (Lower Troposphere): https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/JULY2020/202007_map.png
Graph (Lower Troposphere): https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/JULY2020/202007_bar.png
NOAA hurricane forecast predicts record number of storms in 2020
By Kaelan Deese, The Hill, Aub 6, 2020
Link to report: ‘Extremely active’ hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin
NOAA urges preparedness as we enter peak months for hurricane development
By Staff, NOAA, Aug 6, 2020
From the NOAA statement: “This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks.”
[SEPP Comment: The Hill confuses the number of names of storms with the number of storms of a given intensity, the report predicts 3 to 6 major hurricanes, 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. 1954 and 2005 had 7 major hurricanes, 1933 had 6. The team at Colorado State University estimated 5 storms will be major hurricanes.]
First Time In 70 Years No [Western] Pacific Typhoon Forms In July… Alarmists Alarmed Typhoon Trend Falling!
This year is the first time since 1951 the [Western] Pacific sees no typhoons in the month of July. Typhoons have seen downward trend since 1951.
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 1, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Data are west of International Date Line. A hurricane (typhoon) formed in the eastern Pacific last week.]
Isaias knocks out power for millions in Northeast as cleanup from the tropical storm begins
By Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer. Aug 6, 2020
Predicting drought in the American West just got more difficult
News Release, University of Southern California, Aug 7, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Atmospheric dynamics drive most interannual U.S. droughts over the last millennium
By M. P. Erb, et al, Science Advances, Aug 7, 2020
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Study: Ancient Volcanic Cooling Caused Wine Producing Towns in the Negev Desert to be Abandoned
Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 8, 2020
The Final Years of Majuro—Are a Long Way Off
By E. Calvin Beisner, WUWT, Aug 5, 2020
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
‘There’s still a choice’: New Zealand’s melting glaciers show the human fingerprints of climate change
By Graham Readfearn, The Guardian, Aug 3, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss
By Lauren J. Vargo, et al. Nature Climate Change, Aug 3, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The missing fingerprints are found?]
A brief tale of wind and steam
Guest Post by Ed Zuiderwijk, WUWT, Aug 6, 2020
“Methinks the 150000 people dwelling on what once was the bottom of Lake Haarlem ought to be told and asked for an opinion, whether they would rather keep their feet dry with windmills or with pumps powered by gas and oil.”
Texas Cave Sediment Upends Meteorite Explanation for Global Cooling
Researchers say cooling 13,000 years ago is coincident with major volcanic eruption
News Release, Baylor University, July 31, 2020 [H/t Bill Balgord]
Link to paper: Volcanic origin for Younger Dryas geochemical anomalies ca. 12,900 cal B.P.
By N. Sun, et al, Science Advances, July 31, 2020
From the abstract: “The most likely explanation is that episodic, distant volcanic emissions were deposited in Hall’s Cave sediments.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Extreme Floods / Covid-19 / China Food Shortage Fears
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 5, 2020
What Happened to ‘Without Fear or Favor’?
New York Times journalists want news stories vetted prior to publication. They want mandatory & ongoing newsroom sensitivity training. The Gray Lady is now a place where journalists fear each other.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Aug 3, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Analysis of renewable energy points toward more affordable carbon-free electricity
News Release, by California Institute of Technology, Aug 6, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Role of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Variable Renewable Electricity Systems
By Jacqueline A. Dowling, Joule, Aug 6, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The puff piece avoids the key question: other than hydro what provides long duration storage, greater than 10 hours? How will it lower the cost of wind and solar?]
How climate change affects allergies, immune response and autism
The changes in the environment and biodiversity brought on by climate change could be responsible for increases in allergies, autoimmune diseases and autism, according to a Rutgers researcher
News Release, Rutgers University, Aug 5, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: Confusing the benefits of increasing CO2 increasing photosynthesis with temperature changes that not established.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
‘Worst-case’ CO2 emissions scenario is best for assessing climate risk and impacts to 2050
By Woods Hole Research Center, Phys.org, Aug 3, 2020[H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions
By Christopher R. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, and Philip B. Duffy, PNAS, Aug 3, 2020
“Because future climate depends on future human behavior, which is inherently unpredictable, scenarios are used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures and to illustrate the consequences of policy choices.”
[SEPP Comment: In fantasyland, physical evidence impedes progress?]
Study: A Green Covid-19 Recovery will Save the World and Boost Growth
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 7, 2020
Link to paper: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19
By Piers M. Forster, et al. Nature, Climate Change, Aug 6, 2020
From the abstract: “We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies.”
[SEPP Comment: Boldface added. How silly! The claimed precision is absurd!]
Rising temperatures will cause more deaths than all infectious diseases – study
Poorer, hotter parts of the world will struggle to adapt to unbearable conditions, research finds
By Oliver Milman, The Guardian, Climate countdown, Aug 4, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“91 days to save the Earth” if the US completes its withdrawal from the Paris agreement.
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Poll: Plurality of Americans Call Coronavirus Most Important U.S. Problem, Climate Change Among Least
By Hannah Bleau, Breitbart, Aug 6, 2020 [H/t Climate Depot]
“Notably, “climate change/environment/pollution” — green issues central to the progressive agenda and embraced by Joe Biden — came at the very bottom of the list, garnering just one percent support.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
By Mark Hendrickson, CFACT, July 26, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
‘Office’ Star Rainn Wilson Hosting Docuseries with Greta Thunberg to Teach ‘Idiots’ about Climate Change
By Ben Kew, Breitbart, Aug 5, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Podcast: Biden’s Fantasy Land Climate-Energy plan would harm America
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 7, 2020
About Those ‘Green Energy’ Unicorns…
By Michael Walsh, The Pipeline, Aug2, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Report: Mines, Minerals, and “Green” Energy: A Reality Check
By Mark Mills, Manhattan Institute, July 9, 2020
Biden’s 2-Trillion Dollar Blunder Imperils Economic Recovery
By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, Aug 4, 2020
State-backed pension scheme Nest will divert nearly half of workers’ cash into green investment strategy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 3, 2020
The Political Games Continue
Harris, Ocasio-Cortez push climate equity bill with Green New Deal roots
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 6, 2020
“The Climate Equity Act requires legislation to be weighted with an “equity score” that would estimate the impact on so-called front-line communities, often communities of color and low-income communities that bear the brunt of environmental damage.”
[SEPP Comment: Not too hot, not too cold, with sunshine after 8 am?]
Court cancels shutdown of Dakota Access Pipeline
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 5, 2020
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Spanish Renewable Giant Iberdrola Enters Texas with a Thud
By Bill Peacock, Master Resource, Aug 5, 2020
“The fact that Iberdrola’s “more affordable renewable energy option” is priced higher than the average non-100% renewable plan lays bare the falsity of the claims from the renewable energy industry that wind and solar generation is cost competitive with traditional generation sources like coal and natural gas.”
Why Sustainable Aviation Fuel Should Play a Growing Role in Federal Legislation
By Fred Ghatala & Jennifer T. Gordon, Real Clear Energy, Aug 6, 2020
Link to report: Sustainable aviation fuel policy in the United States: A pragmatic way forward
By Fred Ghatala, Atlantic Council, Global Energy Center, April 2020
[SEPP Comment: Plea for special tax breaks for an unneeded concept.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
CEI Submits Comment Letter in Support of EPA’s Benefit-Cost Analysis Rule
By Marlo Lewis Jr. CEI, Aug 7, 2020
Energy Issues – Australia
Aussie Government Watchdog Alleges Sumo Power Misrepresented Renewable Energy Costs
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 7, 2020
Energy Issues — US
Initial Steps Being Taken To Protect Electric Grid From Electromagnetic Pulse Events
By Paul Steidler, Lexington Institute, July 17, 2020
EIA Details Impact of Coal-to-Gas Switching
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Aug 5, 2020
PSEG to Return to Regulation, Will Divest 6.7-GW Fossil, Solar Fleet
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 6, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Regulated markets assure profits for high-cost ventures approved by ideologically driven politicians.]
New Mexico Utility Regulators Approve Replacing Coal Power with Solar
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland News, August 3, 2020
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
BP wants to become the world’s largest renewables producer (but still pump a lot of oil)
Its fossil fuel production will shrink by at least 1 million barrels of oil a day compared to what it produced in 2019 as it expands its clean energy portfolio. But the company will still be a major contributor to climate change.
By Adele Peters, Fast Company, Aug 4, 2020
U.S. Shale Faces Another Round Of Bankruptcies
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Aug 3, 2020
[SEPP Comment: A drop in consumption bites everyone.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Arab World’s First Nuclear Plant Starts Up
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag. Aug 1, 2020
How to Build an On-Time, On-Budget Nuclear Power Plant
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag. Aug 2, 2020
“The REDCOST report says, ‘the most effective way to reduce construction costs in the near term (early 2020s) is to develop a nuclear programme that takes advantage of serial construction with multi-unit projects on the same site and/or the same reactor design on several sites.’”
Group to Cities: Get Out of Nuclear Project While You Can
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Aug 5, 2020
Wind Power failure: on average every 3 days, there is a 500MW fail
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 6, 2020
Windfarms threaten peat bogs and turn them into carbon emitters
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 6, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Coronavirus accelerates the trend of declining US transit ridership
By Steve Goreham, Washington Examiner, Aug 6, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The Dirty Secrets Of ‘Clean’ Electric Vehicles
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Aug 2, 2020
California loses thousands of jobs and crucial fuel as Marathon Martinez refinery goes idle
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, Aug 4, 2020
To Climate Change Extremists, Free Speech on Facebook Is Dangerous
By Brian Maloney, Real Clear Energy, Aug 4, 2020
Other Scientific News
Carbon dating, the archaeological workhorse, is getting a major reboot
A long-anticipated recalibration of radiocarbon dating could shift the age of some prehistoric samples hundreds of years
By Nicola Jones, Nature, May 19, 2020
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 4, 2020
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
German Environmentalists: To Protect Climate “Shift Barbecue Times From Evening To Early Morning”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 5, 2020
“Science Made Stupid” – Carbon Dioxide & Bird Nest Edition
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 5, 2020
The Tesla Secret
Why don’t Wall Street and the press talk about how the EV business really works?
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Aug 4, 2020
TWTW Summary: The journalist writes:
“Wall Street is narrowly focused on Tesla’s stock price, the press on a brainless debate about whether electric cars are good or very, very good. But try listening to Elon Musk.
“Last quarter the company lost $100 million on electric cars and reported a profit thanks to $400 million in mandated government gifts from other car makers who get their profits from trucks and SUVs. Mr. Musk has stridently complained about regulators encouraging others to build their own electric cars rather than buy fuel-economy credits from Tesla. He urged Detroit to farm out its production of compliance vehicles to Tesla. He renewed the proposal again this week. Essentially, he wants Tesla to help itself to a big share of the profits these companies are obliged, under green mandates, to shift to EVs.”
After recognizing many readers may not wish details, Jenkins continues:
“Let’s understand: If a market opportunity exists for electric vehicles, it hardly requires an existing car maker to exploit it—Tesla has proved that.
“If a public good is served by promoting electric cars, GM or other existing auto companies hardly need to make them, any more than Exxon needs to make windmills and solar panels. This is just a dumb category error, like saying a maker of arms for chairs must make arms for the military.
“Unfortunately policy salesmanship often operates on such dumb errors. You need a story that can be told to an idiot (the public) as well as a bunch of special interests eager to be greased. And we live in a time of emboldened, self-confident stupidity. The press swooned at President Obama’s vaporware target of 54.5 miles a gallon. The fairy tale was treated as the real thing while ignored as too wonky to report was the actual practical, calculated effect: freeing Detroit to make big pickups and SUVs under fuel-economy rules in return for producing token numbers of money-losing EVs to be exploited for presidential photo-ops.
“Until the media starts doing its job, this slide toward policy idiocy will only accelerate. Such government interventions always tend to cartelize the industry they take aim at. That’s the drift here. Mandates that result in electric vehicles being dumped on the market are a deterrent to new EV entrants. Tesla wants to shelter behind these barriers too, though you would never get Mr. Musk to admit it.
“Not that these arrangements are ever likely to prove stable. In Europe, the scheme already is unraveling as the previous diesel fetish did. Governments are pumping out desperate amounts of money to make electric vehicles free to some buyers in hopes of relieving their auto companies of enormous fines they will soon face for missing government-imposed EV targets.
“This silliness has nothing to with climate gains and everything to do with politicians trying to stop their deranged artifices from blowing up on their companies and auto workers. Only two developments in history have made a discretely detectable impact on global emissions: the invention of fracking and the collapse of Soviet heavy industry. Both imparted a one-time boost to the steady, consistent decline in global GDP energy intensity as manufacturing has given way to service-based and then digitally based economies.
“Even greens now admit as much: These trends, unless interrupted by terrible policy mistakes, virtually guarantee that emissions over the next century will fall far short of the worst-case scenario (known as RCP 8.5).
“In the meantime, we lie to ourselves histrionically that electric cars will have any impact at all. Take the big electric SUVs now flooding the market because, with their high price points, manufacturers hope to recoup more of their losses. These vehicles are actually worse for the environment, so energy-intensive is production of their large batteries.
“So what about Tesla’s stock price? The company is plainly valued as if tomorrow’s expected profits won’t be coming from the car business but from some Musk magic yet to be revealed. And that’s fine. Investors are entitled to bet, God bless them, that Mr. Musk is creating the next Apple, not the next GM.
“This column supported Mr. Musk in his battle with the SEC. It urged him to raise capital in the middle of the fight to show he still had investor support. Let technology and consumer tastes, rather than regulatory actions, determine the outcome.
“But a bizarre sidelight is that Tesla’s market capitalization is now greater than GM, Ford, Daimler, VW and Fiat Chrysler’s combined. Tesla is worth more than most of the industry that it relies on for the subsidies that are the only reason it was able to report three consecutive quarters of profit.”