NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests #COVID19 Not As Deadly as Thought.

An NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been based on a flawed assumption about the volatility of COVID19. We already know that the model used to initially predict infection and death rates was completely flawed, and now discredited, along with the modeler Neil Ferguson of London’s Imperial College.

Back in 2005, Ferguson claimed up to 200 million might die from the Avian flu, but in reality, only about 100 did. In March 2020, Ferguson was queried by The New York Times with the question: “what the best-case scenario was for the US during the COVID pandemic?”

“About 1.1 million deaths,” he said. So far, as of this writing, 154,471 deaths have been recorded according to the CDC.

Ferguson’s model numbers overreached reality by about a factor of ten

From the report: (bold mine)

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person’s blood rather than the virus itself.

The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.

“The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.

Basically, the “nanny state” politicians decided to shut down the global economy to protect people from a contagious virus that has resulted in no symptoms or mild symptoms for up to 90 percent of the people who contracted it.

This will eventually go down as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, scientific and political blunders of the 21st century. The so-called “climate emergency” is a close second.

270 thoughts on “NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests #COVID19 Not As Deadly as Thought.

  1. I’m not a doctor or any kind of medical wizard but I figured this out 4 months ago. 🤷‍♂️

    • When the observed does not match the expected it’s time to step back and rethink the expectations. The early results from California that indicated about 8 lines of infection threw a red flag for me. I was also aware at that time that there already was a raging flue season in the Eastern States. Pennsylvania had pretty much been put on alert for serious influenza, but then who knows what pulled that trigger. They knew a lot of people were getting sick late in 2019. When they began to report people with antibodies but no reported history of Covid illness, that sealed my skepticism. There is no question this illness, and many others I might add, kill people who are already in vulnerable health circumstances. The jackass reporting of numbers doesn’t help clear the picture. Couple the muddled numbers with “showboat and political scientism” and you end up in the economic and political train wreck we are experiencing. It is clear now how dangerous the political left can be to our system. I lay the inability to manage the illness on the hysterical “save grandma and grandpa” rhetoric. My brother and I have been managing our parents through two very severe illnesses and we were already well aware of the risk ANY infectious disease posed to their lives and we were already isolating them for that very reason well before the Covid infections were identified. How many here have had their grandparents die of “complications” resulting from: ______________. Fill in the blank, the list is long.

      • A lot of the panic came from the far-reaching Chinese actions to the spread of the new corona virus. Perhaps their response came from their previous bad experiences with the SARS 1 virus. It is, however, also very possible that the Chinese government knows what sort of research program the virus escaped from — what sort of weaponized disease their researchers were aiming at — and that is what did and still does fuel their concern.

        • ‘Perhaps their response came from their previous bad experiences with the SARS 1 virus’

          Or, perhaps their response was to undertake a cleansing of threats to the Totalitarian regime from free thinking citizens. A beautifully managed purge!
          And, while you are on a good thing you can destroy your competitors economies and subjugate the World.

        • ok, D.Cohen, but as far as I know, China is back to business as usual and has been pretty much for months.

          Happy to be corrected, I just try and read the press and work out what is fake news, what is not and to what degree one can rely on it.

      • Leftists and other frauds will always scrap (or cherry-pick, or fabricate) evidence rather than their beloved theories if the latter doesn’t support the former unassisted.

        The same goobers who have been going on about ‘scientific socialism’ since the late 1800s and whatever the climate’s doing this week have found enormous new vistas of scientism in virology and epidemiology.

    • You figured it out? So you wouldn’t have spent any money on it, and made any profit?

      That’s probably why you’re not a medical wizard….

    • When the prediction graphs first came out, they had error bars so wide as to make then totally useless. But much like the “100” different climate model graphs, they just drew a line down the middle and called it reality. So of course no one paid any attention to the shaded error portion of the graphs.

    • from the article

      so did fauci

      ‘And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 “may be considerably less than 1%.”

      Nobody, not even the WHO said IFR was 5%,

      • so did fauci

        “huh that’s weird”

        Is Fauci an authoritative source for you now? Here’s what you said on 07/05:

        “hey is this flu over yet? weather’s kinda hot isnt this flu thing done yet?

        It’s not the flu.”

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/04/yale-28-of-us-covid-19-deaths-being-misdiagnosed/

        Here’s Fauci:

        “You’ve probably heard that COVID-19 is far deadlier than the flu. But it could turn out to be more akin to a severe flu season. Surprisingly, both of those assessments come from the same authority at the same time: Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s chief infectious disease specialist.

        Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has repeatedly cited more jarring figures in public. For instance, Fauci declared in March 11 congressional testimony that the current coronavirus ‘is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu,’ which would be about 1 percent. His testimony generated news headlines that blared across the internet and television news, and it remains frequently cited today.

        But among his learned colleagues in academia, he has provided the more conservative analysis.

        ‘[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,’ Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26.* ‘This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.’

        A day after the NEJM article was published, Fauci was back to repeating the higher fatality number in public rather than ‘considerably less than 1%.’

        ‘The mortality of [COVID-19] is about 10 times [flu],’ Fauci told Comedy Central host Trevor Noah on March 27.”

        https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fauci-offers-more-conservative-death-rate-academic-article-public-virus

        You citing Fauxci – “too funny”

        Hey where’s all the dead kids in Texas?

        “In about 20 days you will know more.. maybe 30 days since youngster last longer on vents.
        some last 60 days..”

        Hows that evil plan for world domination via destroying the credibility of David Middleton coming along? Care to make some more (useless) hard predictions, or are you thinking you’d better stick with generalizing weasels so you can at least have plausible deniability when it doesn’t work out your way?

        Step up DataBoy, let’s hear what smack talking you’ve got to say now? What’s the data SAY??

        I’m waiting . . .

        Hello? Are you there?

        No?

        Are you off to play Sea Kittens with Adrian?

        🙂

        *https://tinyurl.com/y25ral87

        • “For instance, Fauci declared in March 11 congressional testimony that the current coronavirus ‘is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu,’ which would be about 1 percent.”

          Well, there’s nothing better than going to the facts:

          COVID-19, to date, is nothing like the worst of the flu.

          In the single month of October 1918, the Spanish flu (one strain of influenza) killed 195,000 people in just the United States . . . a fact that is not widely known.

          In comparison, in the seven-plus months since January 2020, COVID-19 has been ascribed as the cause of slightly less than 160,000 US fatalities.

          The annual death toll from flu in the US ranges from about 12,000 to 60,000, for an average of 36,000 deaths per year . . . the annual worldwide death toll from flu ranges from 290,000 to 650,000 people. So, specific to the US, if COVID-19 was “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu”, we would project something around 360,000 deaths in year 2020. We are not even at half of this with only only five months left in the year.

          Influenza has cycled annually from epidemic to pandemic status from more than 100 years . . . and in all that time, humans have developed neither “herd immunity” nor a very effective vaccine against the various strains of this virus.

          Some quote about the “lessons of history” could be inserted here.

          • . . . and let’s also consider that the US population today is more than 3 times what it was is 1918.

            That also makes a huge difference and makes Fauci’s (10 times) claim even more absurd.

        • “MAY BE considerably less than 1%.”

          Maybe, Maybe not.

          It might be (way) less than 10 times the flu mortality rate …

          Basically Fauci said “I don’t know, it could be way low or it could be bigger, or it could be 10 times as bad as typical flu, or it might be overwhelming… ”

          Fauci’s sole purpose in life is to drag things out & not solve any problem, and to bask in his redundancy as he tries to convince everyone that he is there to help. He is the opposite of Mr. Meeseeks (maybe a character called Mr. Skeeseem); a ‘Meeseeks’ that was genetically modified by the Gromflomites to be used as a weapon against developing cultures.

      • To all the scamdemics and mask-eraders, please just admit you were wrong and that Fauci lied. If he himself stated that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 “may be considerably less than 1%”, then why did he last week insist (nearly 5 months later) to continue wear a diaper on your face and start wearing those goggles your had from chemistry class in high school and 2 weeks ago stated he’s essentially for mandatory mask usage (“I would urge the leaders, local, political, and other leaders in cities and states and towns, to be as forceful as possible in getting your citizenry to wear masks.”)? The data is not on the side of the scamdemics and mask-eraders (never was, IMO, but it’s definitely not now).

        The quicker these evil people admit they were wrong, take the tongue lashing and tar/fearthering they most definitely deserve, and hopefully lose their positions in govt and elite universities for what they did to our economy (GDP down by 1/3), our kids (suicide rates, overdosing, more lack of formal education), our passtimes (parks/attractions/ballgames closed), our small business owners (many thousands permanently cout-of-business), our elderly (making nursing homes take covid patients), our sick (canceled cancer treatments, heart tests, mammograms…). It’s a travesty and I’m glad that NPR, known by everyone to be the bastion of “conservative” talk radio, is coming around… or are they just laying the groundwork to move the needle and conversation around covid yet again?

    • 0.5 to 1 % is a huge number of people and close to what Ferguson predicted. So far, it isnt even that, it is about 0.005 %.

      However the second wave hasnt hit yet….

      In any case, it cant be stopped till we are dead or immune. Might as well let it rip.

        • Yep that 1% (of diagnosed cases) seems to be what it is running at in my State that is having its 2nd wave attack right. That 1% is heavily skewed to the 70-90 age group, just like death from any other cause.

          • I’m in that age group… with a few confounding issues like COPD… but taking Zinc supplements + Vitamin D and C has worked so far. Knock on wood…

    • It’s hard to say, but when Trump is re-elected, the Progressive/Socialist/Marxist left will definitely invent some fake crisis in order to try and prevent him from succeeding. It’s telling how afraid the left is of Trump succeeding. It can only be because they know that if he was unfettered, his policy direction would be too successful and beneficial for them to overcome with their regressive policies, hypocritical virtue signaling and disingenuous rhetoric. Although I have to admit that these tactics have worked far better then they should.

      • That one’s easy.

        “Trump manipulated the voting data. He lost the popular vote! He cheated (already going around pre-election).”

        They’re just waiting to spring forth and vent their collective angst.

        • “Trump manipulated the voting data. He lost the popular vote! He cheated (already going around pre-election).”

          Yes, that’s what they are going to do. They are going to try to cheat and win the election with their mailing of millions of ballots to God Knows who. Then when the inevitable legal battles over the elction start, the Democrats will pull out all the stops to get a legal ruling in their favor.

          They just had a couple of congressional elections in New York State recently where they used mail-in ballots and it has been over six weeks since the election voting concluded and yet they still can’t tell anyone who the winners of the elections are because of the mishandling of the mail-in ballots.

          Now multiply this fiasco in New York State by 50 States and millions of votes and what we will have is a huge, controversial mess on our hands. Just what the Democrats want if they can’t win outright.

          Here’s my question: If it takes months and months or even years to finish the presidential mail-in vote count, will Trump hold the Office until we get a count? I can’t see any other way of doing it. Trump will have to remain in office until the vote count is settled.

          Be careful what you wish for Democrats.

          • “Trump will have to remain in office until the vote count is settled.”

            And that’s when the war starts, because the Democrats will demand that he should step down and let Pelosi take over until the votes are counted.

            It’s such an absurdly obvious ploy I’m amazed anyone is falling for it.

          • Until a winner emerges from the election results the Speaker of the House becomes acting President.

          • Vote by mail and early voting are such incredibly bad ideas, I am shocked anyone who wants fair elections could ever have supported these two aspects of planned election corruption.
            We have always gone and voted in a polling place on the day of the election.
            All over the world for all of time it has been done like that.
            Are people somehow not as able to walk a few blocks in one particular day anymore?

          • Trump got what, 62 million votes in 2016? He hasn’t lost any voters, he has gained voters. I and several other independents I know didn’t vote for him in 2016 but will in 2020. Then you have the #walkaway movement, what’s the name of the movement to leave the Republican Party? Oh there isn’t one. The Bernie Bros are now mostly former Bernie Bros and saying that he has sold out to the DNC establishment, they are either not voting or voting for Trump. The HCQ scam is red pilling more people than ever, just look at the reaction to Kodak stock when they announced they received a loan to start manufacturing the drug. And before that you have the endless shifting of the lockdown goalposts and what its intentions are. The Democrats are becoming so radical that they are shedding voters daily, the only ones left are the truly brainwashed useful idiots.

            In short, Trump wins in a landslide and the nation moves on, covfefe.

          • Mark and TY

            you guys do realize there is almost 3 months between the election and the transfer of power right? not that we will need it because there hes getting reelected.

          • 20th Amendment says president’s term ends at noon on January 20. If no president ele t has been certified, then Speaker of the House acts as president until one is certified. Unfortunately for Fancy Nancy, she’ll have to resign from the House to serve as President.

          • I think the new house starts on January 1st, so it is unlikely she will be speaker anymore on the 20th.

        • “Unfortunately for Fancy Nancy, she’ll have to resign from the House to serve as President.”

          Assuming that the Democrats continue to control the House of Representatives. They currently have less than a 20-person majority.

          Of course, with mail-out voting, they may just retain the House. Some people claim the Democrats in Calfifornia stole possibly five House seats there in 2018, due to mail-out ballot fraud. That could happen in every State that has mail-out voting.

          The Democrats are pulling out all the stops to steal this election. Just like they always do. The Democrats tried to steal the 2016 presidential election, and did steal the 2018 midterm elections, and now one of the Democrat thieves is the Democrat Party’s nominee for President of the United States, Joe Biden.

          We shouldn’t put these Democrat criminals back in Office where they are in a position to permanently steal all future elections by rigging them for their benefit. We’ve seen how effective they are. Let’s not give them another chance. But for the narrow election of Trump, we would have never known about the treason that elected Hillary Clinton to the presidency. That’s what will happen in the future: The People will be kept in the dark by the Swamp and the Propaganda News Media and our future will be decided by people who answer to no one.

          So we need to vote all the Democrats out of office this time, even good Democrats (I assume there are a few), because electing a good Democrat might mean giving Nancy Pelosi control of the House again, and that would be a disaster for the United States.

          To heal the United States, Republicans need to control the presidency, the U.S. Senate, and the House of Representatives. We are very close to doing all three, if we can keep the Democrats from rigging this election..

      • The biggest crime Trump has committed is the tariffs and restrictions on China and refusing to not go full war hammer on the Middle East. Both parties have too many people losing money on the China tariffs and the lack of a robust war machine. Trump is a threat because he did not follow the guidebook for Washington DC elites.

    • Asteroid strike. It is low probability, high lethality. Preparing for it is a win win – even if the threat doesn’t materialise we end up as a species that no longer has all its eggs in one basket.

      JF

      • An asteroid strike has a finite probability of occurring, while the probability of catastrophic warming caused by CO2 emissions is exactly zero, moreover; an asteroid strike will likely be accompanied with catastrophic cooling. This makes preparing for catastrophic warming from CO2 emissions a lose lose.

    • The next emergency will be just like this one, whatever the “experts” say it is. I am still alarmed to see how easily the citizens surrendered their rights and freedoms to the government.

      • Maybe getting “citizens” used to surrendering their freedoms and the illusion of rights is the end goal of this pandemic. It has certainly promoted the police state in many “democratic” countries – more so than 911.

        And whether it was designed in China alone or jointly, the advanced police states will benefit most from it, because they’ve honed their game a long, long time, while the West has been getting a bit rusty since absolute rulers went out of fashion here. Our goons are gorillas to their chimps and bonobos. No contest in the brains department.

        • The end goal of the pandemic is to crash capitalism. This was the goal of the UN ‘Climate Change’*** hoax leading to the ‘Paris Accord’ with the addition of TPP and TTIP treaties that would entrench globalism as they are treaties superior to The Consitution. But Trump was not going to play and pulled out of all three and it would take too long to wait for a Democrat to become president. Talking up the IFR of COVID-19 and getting everyone to shut down economies was a good vehicle. Expect while countries start hitting the wall in 3 months time, the World Economic Forum to try to set up something different to the Bretton Woods agreement, world bank and the WTO.

          *** Search for Figueres Capitalism

          • I’m not Black, but I agree with M.L. King that capitalism is welfare for the rich, poverty for the rest. Except that it’s become welfare only for the SuperRich, as Ferdinand Lundberg warned in the 60s in “The Rich and The Super Rich”. I don’t think it needs much help to self destruct. The rats take all the loot, all the lifeboats, and leave the ship and everyone else aboard to sink. The future is Lebanon.

    • “What’s the next emergency? Invaders from outer space?”

      I hear the U.S. Department of Defense is getting ready to release some information on Unidentified Flying Objects to the public and one report says they are going to say they have a vehicle that was not produced on the Earth.

    • Dr. Rosin said Von Braun told her repeatedly,

      “And remember Carol, the last card is the alien card. We are going to have to build space-based weapons against aliens and all of it is a lie.”

  2. Dear Mr. Watts,

    The May 28th report by Jon Hamilton of NPR that you cite has, of course, been fully ignored by NPR and its crack investigative reporters.

    As of today, NPR continues in full SCARE MODE having spent the last two months assuring its listeners that COVID-19 remains virulent, deadly and that we’re all going to die unless the entire population is ordered to wear a mask.

    Meanwhile, outside NPR-ville and the media world:
    https://i1.wp.com/wmbriggs.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/us_weeklyalldead.part_.png?w=1200&ssl=1

  3. I thought Fauci said it would be over 2 million in the USA? But if you own a paten on the cure……..

      • US deaths had peaked middle-to-3rd week of April and were on the downslope…an extremely simplistic curve fit based on data through May 5th would have been a “pretty good” predictor. Like the model you referenced, it would not account for increasing death rates in July, hence the shortfall.

        • “. . . it would not account for increasing death rates in July . . .” because it did not foresee the FDA revoking the HCQ EUA on June 15th imo.

        • “Like the model you referenced, it would not account for increasing death rates in July, hence the shortfall.”

          The original Trump model (100,000 to 140,000 mitigated Wuhan virus deaths) estimated these deaths would take place up to about the month of August. The increasing death rates in July were because the lockdown restrictions had been lifted. The original virus model did not figure a relaxation of the lockdown into the original numbers. The original model had reached a figure of about 125,000 mitigated deaths before the lockdowns were eased, so the original estimate fell right in the middle of the 100,000 to 140,000 mitigated deaths model.

          Since the relaxation of the lockdown, the new mitigated deaths model is estimating about 250,000 mitigated deaths by the end of the year.

          • Tom Abbott – The sharp inflection in deaths per day occurred 18 days after the FDA revoked the HCQ EUA. This inflection went from a consistent decline in USA deaths per day to a consistent increase on July 3 (see my graph posted below). The disease timeline from first symptoms until death is reported as 18.5 days (hmmm . . .). Please provide data as to how lifting lock downs across the country resulted in a singularity inflection point on July 3rd.

          • tom said “The original virus model did not figure a relaxation of the lockdown into the original numbers. “.

            I guess the models must have stipulated we’d be lickep up until at least the year 2036 then? it stopped being about the virus @ 3 minutes into the scamdemic. Then it became about orange man bad. OMG, just admit u screwed up on this and eat that crow so we can get back to reading about the climate scam… only 1 scam at a time on please.

        • How could they ever forsee how much shenanigans were going to be made regading covid deaths – including not only deaths from actual covid infections, but also deaths from other diseases but the patient just happened to be infected with covid, and finally deaths from patients presenting covid-like sypmtoms but whom were never given a formal covid test to verify if they were actually infected with covid. This is a travesty for medical science and to anyone who expects honesty and integrity in science and believing that you should follow the data no matter where it leads.

      • “That isn’t bad given how far back it was.”

        Trump’s virus chart was always 100,000 to 140,000 mitigated deaths and 2.2 million unmitigated deaths.

        At the time that lockdown restrictions were eased, the number of mitigated deaths was about 125,000, so Trump’s virus chart was a good educated guess.

        People who say the model used by Trump is junk don’t know what they are talking about. They are confusing his model with a lot of other models which may not have been as accurate. Some models were junk. Trump’s model was not junk.

      • He’s heavily invested in Gilead, which owns remdesivir.

        And he funded the gain of function research at WIV which gave us COVID-19, after it was temporarily suspended at UNC in 2014 over legitimate safety concerns. Bat Woman Shi then moved in 2015 to the new, French-built BSL-4 lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

        • Which is neither a vaccine nor a particularly effective* antiviral medication.

          * At least not against COVID-19(84).

        • John
          An interesting response. However, it is not responsive to Myers claim or my request. What is “heavily invested?”

          • “Fauci is heavily invested in Gilead”.
            We have all seen many assertions that this is the case, but where is the evidence?

            The simple truth is that there is not a shred of evidence that this is the case.

            And how would anyone know what stocks he owns, or how much?

            Simples…because he is legally required to disclose any such ownership, per ethics and SEC regulations:
            https://ethics.od.nih.gov/topics/fd.htm
            He could easily be up on insider trading charges if he lied about something like this, or failed to disclose.
            Anyone with substantial ownership of any company, no matter who they are or what they own, are required to make public disclosures if such ownership is above a certain cutoff point.
            There are many reasons to be sure that we would be able to find out if any of these reports about Fauci and Gilead are true.
            Here is a list of all of the top institutional holders of Gilead stock:
            https://stockzoa.com/ticker/gild/

            They collectively own over 80% of the company.

            Here is a list of the board members of GS:
            https://www.gilead.com/about/leadership

            Insiders collectively hold less that one half of one percent of the company.
            This is a public company.
            The rules for disclosure are tight and strictly enforced.
            Even members of congress are in deep doo doo if they run afoul of the relevant laws and ethics guidelines.
            The fact is, this entire story is just made up BS, and anyone who is buying it has clearly never done even two minutes of fact checking on the subject.
            This is a big company, but Remdesivir has not budged the needle on the stock in any major way, besides for a short and temporary pop last Spring.
            In fact at this point they have lost as much as a billion dollars by giving away the rights to manufacture it and also by making a huge amount of it and giving it all away, and also by running a raft of hugely expensive clinical trials.
            Anyone who wanted to make money of the possibility that Remdesivir might be a moneymaker in this episode had to have done so early, and got out at the right moment>
            Compared to many companies which were more obvious beneficiaries, this has been a nothingburger so far for Gilead.
            Moderna, on the other hand, has gone from a 20 dollar stock to over $75.
            Amazon, Zoom, MSFT, NFLX, AAPL, and a bunch of others…they are up big time since this started.

            BTW…I own none of these companies and have not held any stocks in months.

            Remdesivir was one of the drugs Gilead developed as part of the war on hepatitis C.
            It was found to be a powerful antiviral in vitro, with activity against a wide range of virus types.
            But it was ultimately not very useful vs hep C.
            As with all such drugs, which cost billions to develop even to the animal testing stage it was tested against all sorts of other viruses and conditions for some other possible use.
            It is common for a drug to find use not related to the purpose for which it was originally created or used for.

            The stuff that grows hair, minoxidil, was originally a high blood pressure medication.

            The drug that was the first effective treatment for erectile dysfunction, sildenafil, was also a high blood pressure medication, and is in fact still prescribed for pulmonary hypertension.

            The drug that is one of the most effective topical treatments for psoriasis, calcipotriene (sold under the brand name Dovonex) was developed as a way for astronauts to get vitamin D directly absorbed into their skin, hoping this would have benefits over simply swallowing vitamin D.
            It was discovered to be an effective treatment for plaque psoriasis when it was tested to see if it could be repurposed for treating osteoporosis.

            The NIH says that Fauci does not own stock in any pharma or biotech companies.
            Anyone can check on this in a few minutes.
            There are many vaccines, and success and approval of any one of them would likely mean any treatments will fail to make any money.
            Success of a bunch of them will likely mean that none of them will make any profit, as development costs will exceed any possible earnings. Many other countries are already testing their own vaccines, so it is unlikely any company will have any chance of a worldwide market for their vaccine if they wind up with one that works.

            Now, lets look a little closer at some of the various other assertions we keep hearing about corrupt profit motives.
            It is claimed HCQ is being abandoned for no other reason than it is cheap and not under patent.
            But steroids are also cheap and not under patent, and no one is trying to dispute those studies that show a huge benefit from steroid administration for COVID patients.
            The result is accepted because it is a large gold standard trial, and it shows a large benefit…very clear cut.
            It is claimed that there is no money in HCQ to be made…but lets look at that assertion.
            For it to be used as advocated say it should be, as a prophylaxis taken by everyone or virtually everyone, it would need to be taken over a long period of time by many hundreds of millions of people…billions of people worldwide.
            How much money is in that, potentially?
            The US has some 330,000,000 people. Plus maybe 22 million illegals, maybe more.
            HCQ costs about $25 per a month supply.
            You need to see a doctor to get it.
            Tests have to be done to screen for those who might be at risk.
            Kids are very vulnerable to overdosing on the drug.
            Now, a doctor visit a month by 330,000,000, or even just one visit for each person, is well into the billions of dollars. Just ten dollars per person per visit is over 3 billion dollars.

            25 dollars per person in the US is how much?
            8.5 billion dollars…per month, for a prophylactic treatment.
            Given in a hospital setting, it is a lot more than 25 per person.
            Treatments like remdesivir will likely only be given to people who actually wind up very sick. So far their is no form of it that cannot be given except as a daily IV drip.
            And no one would therefore get it unless very sick, and would get it no more than once…if it is even needed once we have a vaccine.
            But HCQ advocates seem to be scoffing at vaccines and treatments like remdesivir, even while they claim it is only gonna work when taken early.
            It is clear that as far as money making potential, a drug which is cheap and that everyone takes every week as a preventative is going to be the biggest potential profit maker of anything.

            And anyone can make HCQ while risking virtually nothing. It is a pill that is cheap and easy to make.
            Remdesivir is incredibly difficult to manufacture. Gilead had to have a huge team of chemists to figure out how to make it in only 6 months instead of the full year it had been taking for a production run.
            And anything that is used intravenously is also very expensive and even package once it is manufactured. And it must be shipped in a cold supply chain, IIRC. Everything about it makes profits, even theoretically, a challenge in a best case scenario.

            But let’s also wonder for a minute who exactly it is who is decrying the profit motive in new drug research?
            Big tech companies make tens of billions a month for crap no one strictly speaking needs.
            Biotech companies spend billions developing medications, hoping to find one that can save lives so they can get make a profit, maybe, if they are lucky.
            And if they are lucky, so are we all.
            but those are the people we are supposed to hate?
            GMAFB!

          • Nicholas
            The latest thing I read is a claim that birth-control pills (estrogen) are effective against COVID-19. It was used as an explanation why more men seem to get infected (or at least in the beginning of the pandemic).

          • I recall seeing that in the list of ongoing clinical trials.
            However, I just checked to see what percentage of women take birth control pills. It is under 16%.
            They are not recommended for any women over age 44, as they become increasingly risky to use as a women ag3es, and over 50 almost no women would have any use.
            And there are many different formulations for birth control pills.
            Some use only a progestin.

            There were a lot of efforts to use epidemiological analysis to try to find drugs people were already taking that might be blocking infection, and AFAIK, none of them have panned out in early testing.
            Everything from sildenafil and related drugs, to acid blockers, naproxen, and several others.
            The study looking at patients with rheumatic conditions who were already on Plaquenil seems to show fairly conclusively that that drug did not block infection with COVID or lessen severity of disease in those who contracted the illness.
            But most careful clinical trials take far longer than a few months, so we have not seen the results of most of the studies that were initiated yet.
            There is a fairly long list of studies that are already cancelled, suspended, or terminated early. I have not seen where any of those have published official results yet, although the ones halted by the DSMBs monitoring the studies have mostly given a press release with the reason for the stoppage. Others have been halted when the study sponsors lost interest in doing the study.

          • I was just reviewing the history of minoxidil, and had forgotten that it’s use as an anti-hypertensive (high blood pressure medication) was not what it was originally developed for.
            It was originally developed for possible use in treating ulcers, for which it did not work, but it was found in testing to be a powerful vasodilator (meaning it relaxes blood vessels, widening them and increasing blood flow).
            It was then modified into an approved HBP medication that was approved in the 1970s.
            It was only after large numbers of people got it for treating their high blood pressure that it was discovered to grow hair.
            When large number of people get something, any ancillary effects are typically quick to be noticed…such as when CQ and HCQ were found within a few years of being approved to be a useful treatment for ailments such as RA, and later, lupus.

            This all by itself is a good reason to be at least somewhat skeptical that it will prevent or cure viral illness. It is impossible that a drug taken by so many, for so long, could have a strong antiviral effect that was never noticed.

          • $25 for one month supply for Hydroxychloroquine?
            Either that’s for the 200mg twice a week prophylactic dose, or I need to change Medicare Advantage plans. My copay is $47 per month for 200mg twice a day.

          • I actually did not look into that very carefully, just did a search engine query and a quick look at several references.
            I am sure it depends on many factors, such as what pharmacy, brand name or generic, what type of insurance, etc.
            Like airline tickets, it is likely the person behind and in front of you are paying a totally different price whenever one goes into a drug store.

            I should also point out something that I said was not the whole story: Any drug maker can make a generic version of a drug not under patent. But each one of them must do clinical trials to prove their version is safe and effective, IOW equivalent to what is already on the market.
            It is not enough to simply do a chemical assay, for example.
            Likely several reasons.

            So while in theory anyone can make a generic, in practice it costs money and cannot be done overnight.

          • Grumpy,
            Just a few suggestions for you re HCQ and prescriptions in general.
            Shop around, and always check good rx.
            I just did a good rx check on general HCQ, and found that it is $20 with a good rx coupon for 60 pills.
            But 180 pills is $43. I use Costco, as they are typically the cheapest for just about everything.
            And many do not know it, but it is illegal to require a membership to use a pharmacy, so anyone can use Costco pharmacy without a membership…just tell them at the door you are only using the pharmacy.
            Very often I have found Good rx dot com is cheaper than using my insurance, unless it is one of the ones that my plan covers for 2 or 3 dollars.

        • It is common practice for the name(s) of the people who developed the ‘invention’ to show on the patent. However, in the case of it being done while employed, the financial rights accrue to the company paying the researcher’s salary. In the case of government employees, the government owns the rights. The only benefit to having one’s name on a patent is that one can put it on their CV and it might help in getting another job or higher pay.

      • They are all lining up at the trough:

        “It’s completely correct to say that NIAID will reap a profit on the Moderna/NIAID vaccine. There are 6 NIAID scientists who work for Dr. Fauci, each of whom would get $150,000/year indefinitely as their reward. So that’s $900,000 to his subordinates every year in perpetuity.”

        – Mary Holland, General Counsel, RFK Jr’s “Children’s Health Defense”

    • Jeff Meyer
      August 4, 2020 at 8:55 am

      Fauci is not only worshiping what he definitely should not, under any circumstance, in consideration of his duty and servitude.
      But Fauci is dutifully serving as a slave to what he supposes not to even worship, in the first place.

      Fauci as far as this goes, if found in fault and guilty as per this, is really really freaking fracked.

      But then, free will free choice world, in the end… still accommodating the possibility of
      “crime and reward” being the main line followed and propagated there, in our world,
      if allowed due to the clause of free will and free choice.
      We all live and die by the value and merit of our “own swords”… if we actually still bear any such as.

      cheers

    • no wrong

      “The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

      That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.

      And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 “may be considerably less than 1%.”

      • Steven, you state that “In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 “may be considerably less than 1%.””

        and yet he’s still for lockdowns (except peaceful peotestors), masking up everywhere, and now goggles…. all for something with case fatality rate considerably less than 1%…. was he right then with the 1% comment (which to me would stipulate no need for lockdowns, masks, and goggles) or now?

  4. The COVID19 mortality rate has been reduced by 85% simply by not using ventilators. Very medically-scientific.

    • I suspect the number is quite high, but I have no idea how to compute such. Do you know something I don’t know, or is that a guestimate?

      • I heard it from a doctor interviewed at Fox News yesterday. He was a little more circumspect – I think he talked about establishing protocols for ventilator usage.

        • They’re all very circumspect, but after a while it’s easy to read between the lines. If you remember the Dr’s name, please post it. Glad to hear it’s getting mainstream exposure.

  5. Unlike the Climate Emergency, The Corona Virus will cease to be an issue on November 3.

    • Citizen Smith,
      Yep. This virus will be even less of an issue before the end of the year.

      I said to my sister back in January that, as this virus seems to be following a faster than usual infection curve, it should all be over by Christmas maybe as soon as October.
      Currently I’d say it will all be over, bar the WHO shouting, by end of October. There’s too many people with minimal symptoms or just asymptomatic, too many countries making hydroxychloroquine and other treatments available to their population.

    • @LG

      That is odd I just did my own spreadsheet the other night and 0.05% is exactly what I calculated.

      • ‘best’ and ‘worst’, without qualification or defn is subjective.

        Say what you mean … he uses the ‘worst’ studies with respect to outcome/interpretation that YOU would prefer.

  6. Anthony,
    Thank you so much for all you do in maintaining the most interesting and educational site on the Internet! As the US approaches Herd Immunity Threshold in the coming weeks we need to remain cognizant that not only was our economy crippled unnecessarily, but thousands were killed by the partisan political actions and the poor judgements by our leaders! Sadly, even President Trump was pulled into the over-reaction by the so-called experts who appear to have had either a political or a financial stake in this insanity!
    More than a mere blunder, the decisions made by some put politics over saving lives which should be called what it is: murder! The reaction of some to the HCQ non-controversy is astonishing; anyone who tried to suppress it’s use after over fifty years of efficacy needs to called out for the blood on their hands. In the same manner the idiots that pushed infected patients into nursing homes should be charged with man slaughter at the very least; what they did violates every tenet of epidemiology!

    • Unfortunately they will simply tells us that they saved the day. If it wasn’t for them we would have lost millions, no matter what they win and because our media is part of the cabal they will go right along with it.

  7. The problem in Canada now is getting labour. Trudeau’s 2k/month scheme (basically as much as 35 hour week at minimum wage) allows workers to earn another 1k, which gets you well over what you would get at minimum wage. So going back to work is a pay cut for many. And the stupid bugger has now extended the scheme till Oct with the provision that those who refuse to work can now be fired. However, you just have to claim a ‘vulnerable’ granny to fight this.

  8. Since Neil Ferguson always appears to make predictions of catastrope he is like a “Jean Dixon” who was almost never correct, except partially so once in a while. He is a little more correct in this instance than he usually is, but policy makers decided to completely accept the worst of his prescriptions and ignored all else.

  9. It’s just as bad, if not worse, in the UK. “Pillar 4” of the UK’s testing program(me) is supposedly a random sample, to determine how many infected people do not become confirmed cases. But here’s their latest report:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020

    Why would reporting the results of a large random sample require “exploratory modelling” as they claim?

    • Because they need to “adjust” the real numbers to conform to the outcome that they want.

  10. It looks like herd immunity kick in with a mortality rate for a predominate European heritage country is .05% or about 500 per million. You don’t need to be a modeler to take the US population and multiply it by .0005 X 330,052,960 = 165,026 deaths. The US will exceeded that because how poorly the Dimms handled elder care faculties. Now how other populations handle it is an open question, it looks like at this point and time Asians countries will have a lower death rate per million.

  11. Another “conspiracy theory” turns true. The infuriating part is the Left was/is willing to crater the world’s largest economy on the chance it could hurt Trump’s reelection. Another effort to denigrate Trump that turns around and bites them on the ass. We need Trump reelected to reinvigorate our attack on AGW which was manufactured to have the same effect on the West’s economy but at a slower rate.

    • Dan
      Use a high-pass filter (functionally equivalent to a high-road filter) and you will eliminate all the social-justice posturing and false assumptions that Not Public Radio is known for.

    • Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed how most of NPR’s hosts talk with certain affected voice, that if I heard anywhere I’d say, “that sounds like NPR”?

        • Charles
          I would say that one of the characteristics of a ‘woke’ progressive is an attitude and consequent behavior of one who thinks that they are smarter, more knowledgeable, and morally superior to those they disagree with. Although, I suspect they are examples of the Kruger-Dunning effect.

          • I have never noticed that the people on NPR sound smug.
            For much the same reason that Samuel L. Jackson would never it know it if sewer rat tasted like pumpkin pie.

            https://youtu.be/ZA_Tl1kvlQU

            Maybe if the people on NPR were ever actually correct about anything, they would cease to sound so smug.
            But we would have to be talkin’ like Albert Einstein levels of correct.

        • Charles
          Yes, when I was young and naive, I had thought about becoming a lawyer. Old habits die hard.

        • Actually, I think I lost the ability to listen to NPR after seeing this skit on SNL…since they all seem to speak in this same tone of voice of these two.

          The Delicious Dish

          https://youtu.be/bPpcfH_HHH8

          This is comedy gold, with the fortunate side effect of making NPR sound ridiculous, even years later.

  12. It seems more and more as if the US, through its dubious ‘news’ agencies, has been participating in a fashionable panic about this curious virus from Wuhan, with conspicuous virtue-signaling by competitive More-Precautions-than Thou posturing.

    The low probability of serious harm to anyone under 55 who contracts it, plus the common-sense precautions of indoor masking and distancing, make the agonized back-biting by citizen extremists against those noncompliant with their extreme diktats quite an obnoxious feature of daily urban life. Not to mention the random excesses of politicians, ignorant of science but far too willing to adopt one or another ‘scientist’ as unquestionable Authority, in their diktats of business closures and placement of patients in rest homes.

    Let’s hope the fashion switches to some more practical stimulus, such as saving for old age or skepticism of collective herd behavior.

  13. It is staggering how uninfectious this virus is. Months into it and my mother, who has daily care, one of whom works in a supermarket, and is 87, is doing perfectly well. If it was any where near as bad as they said, she would have contracted it.

    It is BS.

    • @Matthew Sykes,
      there is a very good chance she contracted the virus, but has not noticed any particular symptoms. Age, 87, is mostly a concern if you have reduced immune system and a general bad health.

      • Women are protected bc their immune system works better against viruses in general. One reason men suffer more and one of the underlying causes are immune genes being located on the X chromosomes of which women have two, men not. TLR7 is one important of them.

  14. As an aside, I have never seen any question of the risk of the virus entering the body via eyes.
    Can someone compare the risks of eye against, say, mouth entry.
    What a gay world it will be if some idiot mandates we should all wear goggles as well as masks.

    • The head of the South Korean Pandemic Team said months ago it can infect throught the eyes and so did the Chinese doctors.

  15. Who cares what people originally guessed about Covid in the beginning, or even now?

    They knew little or nothing about Covid and could have been right only by chance.

    This flu seems to be the most deadly since 1918 but it is still in progress so there are no experts yet and the conclusion is still TBD.

    Flu deaths in the past have been grossly
    Overstated using models rather than
    A list of names of people who died.

    Anyone who died of, or with, pneumonia,
    Was likely to be said to die of the flu.

    Maybe that’s happening again.

    The cost of partial lockdowns, both
    Health and economic, is likely
    To be worse than the disease.

    I suppose the climate models
    Were used for Covid death
    Predictions too?

    Scientists with models
    Are almost always wrong
    But never in doubt.

    Climate models are
    Bad news
    And Covid models too.

  16. This may have been more of a “non emergency” if front-line physicians were allowed to do their job w/o threat of losing their licenses (see updated USA deaths/1M pop).
    Any medical experts and/or data gurus have data for daily use of hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Zinc sulfate by country?? If so, please post a link.

  17. So at the start of the pandemic
    Some people speculated
    About Covid19, about which
    They knew little, and they
    Turned out to be wrong.

    There’s a topic for a
    Spellbinding artice !

    • Except they didn’t say they were speculating, Just like they don’t tell you they are speculating about climate change. They present there speculation as fact and call you a science denier if you dare question their obvious intellectual superiority.
      All you have to do is watch the news they treat science like the inquisition treat beleif in god.

  18. By the way a note to governor Coumo, Georgia had less deaths yesterday than NY and still about 10% over all, think maybe you should go back to Georgia and apologize to their governor for the comments you made.

    Oh and
    Texas still in the 20% range
    Florida too
    Both are see a sharp drop in cases

    • Also, isn’t it true most cases in the US can be traced to NYC? A Shelter-In-Place was ordered back in the spring for NYC and, within, 48 hours, TENS OF THOUSANDS of them had scattered out across these fruited plains, taking the Wuhan Virus with them. Yet, in typical obnoxious hypocritical fashion, the Leftist-In-Chief of the People’s Republic of New York wants to tell others they must shelter in place, etc.
      Liberalism is a mental disorder.

  19. I think you should read more. For example JoNova’s blog:
    http://joannenova.com.au/

    The “it’s just a flu” crowd had to shut up when the bodies piled up to a point they could not be processed by the system fast enough. And that happened with only a few percentage of the population being infected. Now we are learning that even mild cases of the disease appear to show worrying sequels at an alarming proportion:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/three-quarters-of-covid-mild-illnesses-show-heart-damage/

    If you think COVID is mostly harmless then go ahead and get it. What is the worst that could happen? Oh yes, you could die.

    • Agreed but the politics are killing many of those people, remember all the ventilators we had to have? If we had zero many more would have lived. Cuomo should be in jail for his nursing home decision, Murphy too. The 2 of them are responsible for about 8000 deaths.
      Hyroxichlorquin as well there a hundreds of doctors using to save lives no matter how many studies show otherwise and to even mention it’s use gets you in political trouble.
      It is worse than a typical flu and we do need precautions but we most certainly don’t need to shut the world down.
      And it’s no we’re near as bad as the Spanish flu was.

      • Re the Ventilators.
        That is because this WAS treated as just another Flu.
        Ventilators worked for the Flu when your lungs are compromised, it would work for COVID-19 except it didn’t. Because it is not just another Flu is it.

        The current worldwide Mortality Rate, Deaths/Cases is 3.78% and for the USA is 3.3%.
        But of course the USA would be much better off if they had followed the tiny 10M population of Sweden with no lockdown as their rate is only 7.1%
        Or the UK’s at 15.1%

        • That’s not the mortality rate, it’s just the meaningless ratio of deaths ascribed (rightly or wrongly) versus the number of positive tests done. It’s likely in excess of 10-15M have actually had the virus in the UK. It was 17% of the population of London way back.

          No one said it was flu, they said it was no worse than bad flu. Regardless, there are lots of strains of flu and related viruses, each with it’s own target population, range and severity of symptoms. Even one flu is not another flu and may require different treatment.

          As fir the Jo Nova site. No we didn’t shut up. Some gave up arguing. Some were bullied by one particular poster. Most were reluctant to strongly contradict Jo for being so wrong on the issue. The vast majority of people posting on her blog on this issue disagree with her.

          It is no worse than some flu – every report Jo has posted about some supposedly unique nasty trait I have shown near identical reports for flu, or given enough clues to find via Google. I don’t bother responding to further argument – what’s the point – Jo’s entrenched. Jo has lost her audience on this one.

          Covid is not harmless, but it is not a catastrophe, and the political response has been nonsensical and a needless disaster in itself. It is just something we have to get through, and the faster people stop trying to block it, the faster that will happen.

          You could die of anything, and the risks of many causes of death are higher. And as I said on the thread, there’s a mountain of papers ascribing very high rates of heart damage (myocarditis etc. ) to influenza – one (Avian flu I think) was near 70% of patients. Of course mostly it heals with time, but stroke/heart attack is a much higher risk post influenza – that’s s well known too.

          • Jo was not clueless.
            Jo allowed the discussion of a broad range of arguments on her blog.
            I attempted to bring the data set reporting both the number of positives and negatives to the attention of the blog and for that enjoyed the attention of what I would contend were either useful idiots or Gramsci’ite memebots. That data set, the University of Washington’s Virology Department COVID19 Dashboard has continued to report a positivity ratio of those reporting with flu like symptoms of around %5. Accumulated positive totals were in my opinion being used to scare the world. How clever were the High Priests. You choose a virus that is already prevalent throughout the world, preach (room 101) visions of horrible deaths associated with the virus and then begin ramping up testing for this virus with a ambiguous test. Brilliant! No Trump rallies and the Constitution of ‘We the People’ being reduced to rubble.
            As time has progressed my friends rather than discuss the database resorted to the usual tactics of their kind and found they were enjoying a negative response (red thumbs) that soon spread worse than the virus to their posts on every topic.
            joannenova.com.au remains one of the few blogs where polite discussion is encouraged, entertaining and interesting. Much the same as WUWT.

          • Once upon a time, I posted a comment on her site…a single comment, one time.
            She deleted it without explanation.
            Never commented there again.
            Why bother?
            That is what warmista sites do.

        • MrGrimNasty, you are completely wrong.
          The current Infection Rate in the UK is 1.8%, 305,623 cases from 16,717,684 tests.
          That would say that the total infected in the UK is 1,240,786, so you are only wrong of by a factor of 10 with your total guess.

          Since none of the actions for COVID-19 have ever been taken for modern Flu epidemics there is no comparison that you can make regarding how dangerous it is.
          Or are you one of those that says the actions have done nothing to mitigate COVID-19 cases and deaths?

      • Cuomo should be in jail for his nursing home decision, Murphy too. The 2 of them are responsible for about 8000 deaths.

        Most likely not. The decision was utterly stupid and it was probably sheer luck but from all we know now patients are not contagious anymore when they are released from the hospital even if they still test positive in the higher 30’s Ct.

        The spread in nursing homes happened most likely via staff not familiar with or not using protective gear or just the lack of it. That is what happened in other countries as well and killed a lot of people with Belgium and Sweden being the most famous examples.

    • I had a severe case of something viral in 1999 after I returned from the Yucatan. Fever for several days and loss of taste and smell, low cough. It resolved but the loss of taste and smell persisted for almost 4 months.
      Those kinds of viruses are out there and have always been around at low levels. The healthy immune system can and does deal with them. Sure an effective vaccine would’ve been nice for whatever it was that put me down for a week (it wasn’t likely influenza and I was active duty US military at the time and had to get the annual flu vaccine anyways).

      This Corona Virus-2 will be around, circulating forever now. Only herd immunity through a vaccine or the natural infection will protect the population from large outbreaks after this one subsides in 12-18 months. The infectivity of this respiratory virus is so high, the lockdowns have done little good, slowing but not stopping the spread. We’ve only protected the hospitals from being overrun at huge expense to the economy and our children’s future. The COVID-19 self-imposed lockdowns will ultimately be judged the worst policy mistake in modern times. Of that I have no doubt.

      • The evolution of the virulence of viruses and infectious diseases in general, is highly speculative.
        There are numerous examples of infectious diseases that have shown no indication of becoming less virulent, despite being endemic in humans for a long period of time.

        The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests
        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/

        Evolution of virulence when transmission occurs before disease
        “We find that ESS virulence decreases when expressed early in the infection or when transmission occurs late in an infection. When virulence occurred relatively equally in each class and there was disease recovery, ESS virulence increased with increased transition rate. In contrast, ESS virulence first increased and then decreased with transition rate when there was little virulence early in the infection and a rapid recovery rate. This model predicts that ESS virulence is highly dependent on the timing of transmission and pathology after infection; thus, pathogen evolution may either increase or decrease virulence after emergence in a new host.”

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2936202/

        Theory and Empiricism in Virulence Evolution
        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4207818/

    • @Javier
      That is disturbing but in line with unpublished data from the annual meeting of the International Society for Stem Cell Research where different groups reported that cardiomyocytes are the cells most easily infected in vitro.

    • They don’t put people on ventilators for influenza like they do for covid. If they did the flu would be just as bad as covid.

      • There are just not as many patients who are getting this hypoxic by influenza.

        You are wrong that those are not treated with ventilators. They are, especially if they have too much liquid in their lungs.

        • Covid patients are routinely intubated based on arbitrary blood saturation levels at 6l/min O2. There’s no scientific basis for it. The primary driver is fear of aerosolized virus. So they intubate patients early based on arbitrary criteria for that reason. But hospital studies have shown that significant aerosolization does not occur with high flow oxygen, which is really what most hypoxemic covid patients need. Many to most have good lung compliance, which the ARDSnet protocols do not address. Mechanical ventilation for most covid patients is a modality mismatched to the pathophysiology. That might not be a problem if ventilators weren’t such strong activators of inflammatory pathways.

          • Covid patients are routinely intubated based on arbitrary blood saturation levels at 6l/min O2.

            They are not anymore and in some hospitals never have. Don’t make things up.

            Many to most have good lung compliance, which the ARDSnet protocols do not address.

            Which is just something that was not known when doctors had to treat patients to prevent them from dying from hypoxia.

            It took autopsies to figure out that it was not common ARDS. And that took time and pathologists willing to get exposed to a potentially killing virus with only hypothesised transmission pathways.

            You are pretending knowledge just happens to emerge from thin air. It’s not.

          • Not making things up. I can document everything I say. Please provide evidence that they are no longer doing that. Here’s mine:

            The cognitive challenges in COVID-19 revolve around interpretation of blood oxygen levels
            and deciding whether to insert an endotracheal tube. It is a tragedy to think that some COVID-19 patients were intubated simply because oxygen was being delivered at more than 6 liters/min targeted to a non-scientific pulse oximetry objective.

            https://t.co/zGJjTbeaDr?amp=1

            Yesterday, an ED doc says “if they don’t do well with 6 liters by NC, we tube them. Not risking exposing staff to aerosolization with higher flow O2.”

            https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128

            No, it didn’t take autopsies; it took astute doctors, like Gattanoni, Kyle-Sidell and some others, who knew what they were seeing was not typical ARDS.

            And I already told you I’m not finding fault to lay blame. I fully understand what a terrible position doctors are in. That doesn’t excuse them, however, from continuing in this injurious path, which many are doing.

          • “Which is just something that was not known when doctors had to treat patients to prevent them from dying from hypoxia.”

            That was a fear started by Chinese doctors that infected doctors around the world. But some doctors worked through the fear.

            I keep hearing that we are intubating for sat. in 80’s-70’s immediately, instead of a trial of non invasive like high flow oxygen for fear of patients crashing… in 4 months, i am yet to see that crash.

            https://twitter.com/DFarcy/status/1282052956779683841

          • Poor wording above. Better:

            “That doesn’t excuse them, however, to continue in this injurious path, which many are doing.”

          • Two people “hearing things” is all of your evidence? Really?

            You don’t wonder why the mortality is quite down compared to April?

          • That’s really a poor comeback. One relating what an ED doc said, the other a prominent pulmonologist. I have more than just those two, but my two beat your zero any day.

            I do suspect mortality is down because numerous doctors have changed course and don’t intubate as much. But there are still a lot that do because they don’t think they’re doing anything wrong. I have evidence for that too.

          • One relating what an ED doc said, the other a prominent pulmonologist.

            Could be the most trustworthy pulmonologist of all times, hearsay is hearsay.

            And isn’t that an appeal to authority, I wonder?

            But there are still a lot that do because they don’t think they’re doing anything wrong.

            Well, the NIH guidelines do not back up your claim:

            https://files.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/guidelines/covid19treatmentguidelines.pdf

            Of course there are bad clinicians. Every profession has those but I doubt that hospital managements are not following those guidelines carefully. The fear of getting sued is working wonders usually.

          • No, it’s not an appeal to authority. I simply provided what individuals knowledgeable in their field said and wrote.

            Each hospital has it’s own covid treatment guidelines. I can show you in the Massachusetts General Hospital guidelines where they recommend intubation of covid patients, and recommend against high flow oxygen treatments for covid patients. But they do recommend high flow oxygen for non-covid patients with respiratory problems, like COPD. So it’s simply a fear of aerosolization issue.

          • I can show you in the Massachusetts General Hospital guidelines where they recommend intubation of covid patients, and recommend against high flow oxygen treatments for covid patients.

            So you have one hospital. And you are sure there is no update to the guidelines? The NIH guidelines had plenty.

            Should we write an email to the hospital and ask what their most recent standard of care is?

          • @Broadie
            88% O2 on its own is meaningless for the decision how to treat a patient e.g putting them on a ventilator, you need to calculate PaO2/FIO2 ratio and how that progresses to make medical decisions.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQr-OLA8xdM&list=PLQ_IRFkDInv_zLVFTgXA8tW0Mf1iiuuM_&index=89&t=0s

            And you have happy hypoxics in COVID-19 so even when the nurse thinks “they’re fine” it could be the complete opposite.

            Btw, the talk about DNR, well, yeah, that is exactly why we should keep the f***ing numbers low because that is what high numbers lead to.

          • Correct Ron!
            What we really rely on in a fast moving and ever changing world is someone to care. I enjoyed your Medcram video. I do however hope you may be able to see how efficiently a bureaucracy can justify a level of care within guidelines that would not occur if relatives and friends were there advocating for the patient as the nurse suggests.
            You asked a questioned of Icisil’s argument as relating to one hospital, I have given you another hospital and I have personally watched a Modern Hospital neglect my Infuenza B infected Father to the point he would have died. I wasn’t angry as I was used to our ‘free’ health system and its limitations having spent a lot of time in Hospitals with a my child. O2 Saturation is a machine that ruins your nights sleep and for those around you.

    • Non-hospitalized covid patients were examined months after recovery and had markers of heart damage. What were their health conditions before being infected? Maybe they already had heart problems.

      • You can calculate how likely it would be to see this result just by chance cause there are studies that tried to determine the rate of undetected heart damage in the population. If the numbers are way higher in the COVID-19 cases and your sample size is sufficient it is hardly by chance.

        • “If the numbers are way higher in the COVID-19 cases and your sample size is sufficient it is hardly by chance.”

          Only if you assume existing heart disease isn’t a risk factor for developing a serious-enough case of CCP-19 that you get tested for it.

          • Mark …

            There was another study … it showed that people who wrecked their cars while driving at night were statistically very likely to have their vision impacted by the car wreck. It probably has something to do with a significant stress impact while in the dark … maybe because the eyes are not dilated at all during a big blood pressure surge or drop.

            And, strangely, vision impacts from wrecking a car at night is not specific to only near-sighted or only far-sighted people. They compared against a large sample of non-night wreck people (it included other types of wrecks though) and it turns out that the wreck makes their night vision worse … strange but true.

    • Javier.

      Sorry to put it this way,
      but you technically and otherwise seem to have clearly completely lost your mind… mate.
      Let me assure you, that you are not alone there.
      Maybe that gives you some comfort.

      Sky is not falling, not yet.

      cheers

    • @Javier

      Yeah, and you can die getting out of bed. Not sure that your point or lack thereof holds a lot gravitas for me. I work in cancer treatment center. Proton therapy. Not a single patient has contracted the virus. Only one colleague supposedly contracted it, off site and away from the facility. Roughly, 6000 people died a week from all causes prior to start of all this BS. The reaction to it is definitely out of bounds.

      Yeah, yeah I can hear it now, every life is priceless, blah, blah, blah. Remember zero also means priceless. Furthermore, international law has codified the cost of a human life through the Montreal Convention so it is not priceless per international agreement and law.

      Here in the US alone the final butcher’s will be many multiples of virus due to secondary and tertiary effect, the whole cure worse then the disease.

    • Do you mean when the Colonel For Life of the People’s Republic of New York demanded more hospital beds, but, after makeshift hospitals were built and a Navy hospital ship parked in the harbor, NOBODY came to them? Is that when you’re referring to?

      [Total Supposed Deaths] – [Faked Numbers] – [Killed By Ventilator] – [Killed in Nursing Homes] = [Bad Flu Season]

  20. This has been obvious for at least since mid-May.
    And not only is the fatality rate (not case fatality rate, overall fatality for the population) far below 1%, the infant to young adult age groups (age: 0-29 years) have a minuscule risk of severe disease from COVID-19. Those in the young ages who have had ARDS and/or died from COVID-19 (not with) almost certainly had an underlying risk factors like diabetes, leukemia/lymphoma treatments, or gross obesity. Compare that to the Spanish Flu/H1N1 of 1918-1919 where the teenagers and young adults deaths were at least 40% of the overall deaths.

  21. Posted the following observations yesterday.
    1. The pandemic is over when the CDC’s excess mortality % returns to about zero. That will likely be about the end of August; it is already back down well under 10% nationally. Peaked late April at about 22k excess deaths/week. Is now only about 2k as of last week of July Stanford epidemiologist Just published agreeing with that assessment. That will be with about 25% testing positive antibodies.

    2. Part of the reason the ‘herd immunity’ models predicting 65-70% infected are wrong based on Sweden is they assume homogeneity. When more realistic heterogeneity assumptions are input the Herd immunity threshold is 25-30%. Nic Lewis has two posts on this Mathematics over at Climate Etc.

    • HQC has cardiac side effects for massive doses of 500mg/day or more. This is several times the dose of 200mg/day which is the consensus dose.

      Impacts to the heart are more likely to be a result of thrombosis which is one of the impacts of COVID-19.

    • The ARDs of a severe case of COVID-19 is due to the virus infecting endothelial cells of the vasculature. Alveoli sacs are lined with intricate meshwork of capillaries for gas exchange. Damage to this vasculature network allows the virus to spread systemically, and thus to heart’s vasculature feeding the cardiac muscles. Many people who have COVID-19 report muscle aches, this is the virus doing there (back muscles) what it is also doing to the heart muscles, causing a low level of non-productive infection of the cells there.

      But muscle aches and muscle pain (myalgia) are a common symptom of many viral infections including influenza (see list in link below). This is the virus getting to the muscles through the circulatory system. So heart “damage” is occurring, it is just that in most people it is easily repaired once the virus is eliminated by the immune system. So this is not specific to a SARS-CoV-2 viral infection by any means.

      myalgia and viral infections (see “causes”):
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myalgia

          • Any doctor worth his/her salt will check for arrhythmias before prescribing HCQ and periodically during the course of treatment.
            It’s interesting that the warnings that come with every refill for HCQ include “Many drugs besides hydroxychloroquine may affect the heart rhythm (QT prolongation). Some examples are…AZITHROMYCIN…among others.”

    • I would be more impressed if the first study had before and after MRIs of the recovered patients in order to exclude prior heart issues.

      Concerning elevated levels of troponin, there are other things besides heart problems that can cause that; like extreme physical exertion. Many of them had just returned from ski vacations and were middle aged. hmmm…

      Other causes of elevated troponin
      https://www.healingheartdiseasenaturally.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/troponin-other-reasons.jpg#main

        • That doesn’t mean that it’s doing anything pathogenic. The basic consensus now is that the virus is not very pathogenic, yet somehow it mysteriously triggers an out-of-control immune response. A lot of the mystery would vanish if they simply factored in the severe out-of-control immune response mechanical ventilators are responsible for.

          SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t appear to be a savage destroyer of cells. Although it’s too early to know for sure, the virus’s fatality rate seems to be roughly 10 times that of the flu. “You would think that’s because it’s just a killing machine,” says Max Krummel, Ph.D., UCSF’s Smith Professor of Experimental Pathology and chair of the Bakar ImmunoX initiative. So far, however, the science suggests otherwise.
          One of the weirder things about this new coronavirus is it doesn’t seem to be incredibly cytopathic, by which we mean cell-killing,” Krummel says. “Flu is really cytopathic; if you add it to human cells in a petri dish, the cells burst within 18 hours.” But when UCSF researchers subjected human cells to SARS-CoV-2, many of the infected cells never perished. “It’s pretty compelling data that maybe we’re not dealing with a hugely aggressive virus,” Krummel says.

          https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-thought-covid-respiratory-viruswe-wrong.html

  22. Anthony, calling this kerfuffle a “blunder” is probably too kind. The way this situation has progressed, I have had to strongly resist the temptation to put on my conspiracy hat, because so much of the response to this virus has been political and NOT based upon the known science. Never in the history of disease have I seen so many world, national, and local leaders make so many draconian decisions on the basis of so little real information. The words “panic” and “fear” drive most of the policy discussions in the United States still. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s chief overreactor and hysteric, should have been fired a long time ago or at least put out to pasture because he is still now generating reasons to continue the philosophy of lockdown (knowing that he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 assures me even less that he is doing this on a scientific, as opposed to a political, basis. The old goat just keeps making noise with little or no real scientific result.

    • “This will eventually go down as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, scientific and political blunders of the 21st century.”

      I’m with Larry. It’s beyond charitable to say that politicians caused all this harm intentionally but in good faith. They caused it intentionally; that is undeniable. If it were done in good faith they would have stopped the fearmongering and money-printing long before now.

    • “because so much of the response to this virus has been political and NOT based upon the known science”

      Isn’t that the truth! Lots of examples in this article and the comments. Lots of opinions.

  23. There is one upside to the Covid experience that bears on the Catastrophic Anthropo Global Warming topic. The way the Democrat led states and House of Representatives handled the crisis in elderly care homes, banned a no regrets medication (HCQ) that seems hard to kill off, who in their right minds would want the New Left in charge of managing any crisis? Add to that months of Dem sanctioned (“Summer of Love”) and even supported (directed?) terror, arson, murder, looting, destruction of private and public property… even if the Climate Strawberry Social turned out to be worse than a bolide strike, we wouldn’t want the party of Pelosi looking after things.

  24. The perfect controlled experiments:

    Diamond Princess
    # on board: ~ 5,000
    # of COVID-19 positive tests: ~600
    # of fatalities: 19

    USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)
    # on board: ~5,000
    # of COVID-19 positive tests: ~680
    # of fatalities: 1

    • The age groups analysis and general health status of those two “experiments” as you call them puts in stark relief where the at-risk demographics exist.

  25. HQC has cardiac side effects for massive doses of 500mg/day or more. This is several times the dose of 200mg/day which is the consensus dose.

    Impacts to the heart are more likely to be a result of thrombosis which is one of the impacts of COVID-19.

    • “Dr. Ackerman said that patients aged younger than 40 years with mild symptoms and a QTc ≥500 milliseconds may choose to avoid treatment altogether, as the arrhythmia risk may far outweigh the risk of developing COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome.”
      https://criticalcare.peervoice.com/mayo-clinic-provides-guidance-risk-qtc-prolongation-label-covid-19-treatments

      Guidance on patients at risk of drug-induced sudden cardiac death from off-label COVID-19 treatments

      https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-provides-urgent-guidance-approach-to-identify-patients-at-risk-of-drug-induced-sudden-cardiac-death-from-use-of-off-label-covid-19-treatments/

      “While hydroxychloroquine is likely to be safe for 90 percent of the population, Ackerman said, it could pose serious and potentially lethal risks to a small number of those susceptible to heart conditions, especially those with other chronic medical problems already on multiple medications.

      In fact, a small recent study showed that up to 11 percent of coronavirus patients on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are in the so-called “red zone” for potential cardiac side effects.”

      “They’ve entered the danger zone,” Ackerman said. “That is not just my hunch that patients are going to be reacting to this drug — but they are reacting to this drug.”

      “Ackerman said there are as many as 100 FDA-approved medications that can potentially prolong the QTc interval like hydroxychloroquine, and one of them is azithromycin. This combination, which Ackerman refers to as the “corona cocktail,” could be particularly dangerous in the wrong patient.

      “It just means that the perfect storm is brewing. It’s sort of like walking to the edge of the cliff. You are getting closer and closer to that proverbial edge,” Ackerman said.

      Hydroxychloroquine’s fate as an FDA-approved drug to treat the coronavirus remains uncertain, Ackerman added.

      “Yes, these medications overall are really, really safe, so in that sense the president is right. But really safe in a population sense doesn’t mean that drug is going to be safe enough for the particular patient I’m about to treat,” he said.”

      https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/mayo-clinic-cardiologist-inexcusable-ignore-hydroxychloroquine-side-effects-n1178776

  26. I remember in grade school they had us all take a TB test.
    I was the only one in my class to test positive.
    (The test site turned red. It was kinda fun showing it to my classmates. Sort of like when kids compare scars.)
    But I didn’t have active TB.
    I’d had Tubercular Meningitis when I was 18 months old and was properly treated.
    (You don’t give pills to an 18 month old. You give them shots. I got so many I have 3 coin-sized areas on my … where they give babies shots, that look like the surface of the Moon.)
    Covid testing has increased so positive test results have increased.
    No surprise there.
    (What would happen if they also tested for anti-bodies of past flu strains? A new pandemic?)

    • Back in the 50s one of my father’s coworkers came down with TB, so naturally I was tested. A few weeks later my grade school tested all students. My mother objected, but got no where, knowing that the previous test would cause me to test positive…which it did. I was not allowed back in school while my family doctor and the school nurse battled.

  27. Asteroid strike. It is low probability, high lethality. Preparing for it is a win win – even if the threat doesn’t materialise we end up as a species that no longer has all its eggs in one basket.

    JF

    • The only way a Mars, Lunar, or beyond colony could survive long-term is by periodic Earth resupply of both people and raw materials (such as thorium/uranium/plutonium for reactors, fertilizer for crops). Little chance of that resupply if the Earth is decimated by a large bolide.

  28. Bogus. Newest data from seroligical study from Italy reported 1,48 million infected people and 35,171 confirmed deaths. Makes an IFR of 2.37%. Data from New York implicated 1.4%, data from Spain 1.2%.

    IFR is hopefully supposed to go done as treatment becomes better (steroids, remdisivir, interferon beta) but at the moment this thing is way apart from being “just the flu”. Possible long lasting damage just emerging. I would not advise to catch this.

        • “Inhibit the virus early and it should work. Inhibit the virus to an extent the cytokine storm/blood clotting does not happen and it should work.”

          One of my questions about the Wuhan virus is how soon after it enters the body does it start to do serious damage?

          Do you think the bloodclotting is caused by the cytokine storm and not before, or does the Wuhan virus contribute to the bloodclotting and, if so, presumably bloodclot damage could be happening even before the cytokine storm gets going.

          There are more and more claims of damage to various organs, heart, lungs, kidney, liver coming from people who had very mild cases of the Wuhan virus. So what about children? They seem to weather the infection quite well but is the infection doing long-term damage to them even so?

          Yes, you don’t want this virus if you can manage to avoid it. We really do not know what the long-term consequences of this disease really are.

          By the end of the year, when we get a vaccine, perhaps we can stop worrrying about this. But not before, I would say. Until we get a vaccine, we should concentrate on getting this virus out of the body as soon as possible after it is detected using something like HCQ that is claimed to clear the body of the virus in from six to nine days.

          • @Tom About

            Unfortunately, we don’t have the answers yet. There are a lot of reasonable hypothesis out there and confusingly many are backed up by valid looking data.

            Do you think the bloodclotting is caused by the cytokine storm and not before, or does the Wuhan virus contribute to the bloodclotting and, if so, presumably bloodclot damage could be happening even before the cytokine storm gets going.

            One hypothesis about this is that it could be something like a vicious circle that gets stronger each round.

            In addition some speculate SARS-CoV-2 could directly mediate clotting of erythrocytes via CD147. The virus uses ACE2 together with CD147 to enter cells. Erythrocytes don’t have ACE2 so the virus will not enter but it could be a like a “glue” attaching erythrocytes to each other.

            So what about children? They seem to weather the infection quite well but is the infection doing long-term damage to them even so?

            We don’t know. Maybe they don’t have a problem bc their vasculature is very intact and they have very low levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines like CCL2 and IL-32 which seem to correlate with severe cases.
            Or it could do long-term damage like influenza when it goes to the heart (myocarditis). Happened to a friend of mine. Was hospitalised as a child and got arrhythmias in his early 30’s.

            With the unknown better be save than sorry.

          • Ron’s correct: we don’t know.

            And we will never know until we filter out the noise to be able to measure the real signal. On one hand we have speculation that a virus is causing thromboses; on the other hand we have decades of documented research about mechanical ventilation’s role in activating inflammatory pathways, including thrombosis precursors like VEGF, which just happens to be the most important indicator related to COVID-19 severity, according to one study.

          • @icisil
            I showed you the data that people who have never been on a ventilator have blood clotting and die.

            Clinicians are reporting that the blood is already clotting in the tubes when patients are hospitalised and they are taking samples before patients even get any treatment.

            There are studies that coagulation factors in these samples like VWF are through the roof, crushing the scale of the assays.

            But of course, it’s all the ventilators fault…

            /sarcasm off.

          • And I told you the data on those two out patients was inconclusive.

            I would really like to see examples, reports, studies, etc. that show VWF numbers are through the roof at presentation. You simply saying it’s so isn’t enough for me.

            And I’ve never said that only ventilators are causing the pathologies. But I am saying it is impossible to get a clear signal about viral pathogenesis while ignoring mechanical ventilator’s contribution.

          • Oh, and except of one non-ICU patient all received at least a prophylactic anticoagulation treatment (see appendix).

        • It is also likely that the early results we have seen so far for remdesivir have shown a reduction in benefit due to most patients hospitalized in March and April getting HCQ, which is now known to interfere with the antiviral effect of remdesivir.
          When that finding was published, a directive went out to avoid giving these two drugs to the same patient.
          Far larger trials with a longer time horizon have been ongoing, and it seems very possible those studies will give a better idea of how much it can help, and at what stage of illness, and across a broader range of outcome measures.
          The benefit will almost surely be for some and not others.
          I can think of zero antivirals that work for everyone who takes them, when use as a monotherapy.
          Probably the most effective antiviral ever discovered is sofosbuvir for hep C, and by itself it has limited utility. But combined with a second antiviral with a different mode of action, it has been made part of a single pill regiment that is almost perfectly effective against even the sickest people with the most hard to treat strains of the HCV virus. But that was after decades of development and years of testing and refinement.
          Simply settling on the optimum dosage of a new drug, or an old drug for a new usage, topically takes years of studies in thousands of patients, after years of study in cell cultures and animal models.

          • Nicholas
            Apparently the ‘deep thinkers’ here never considered the possibility of a contraindication for HCQ and blithely recommended its use prophylactically, or for early mild infections, thus preventing the use of something that works for those most in need.

            https://www.yahoo.com/news/sorry-burst-magic-bubble-says-180317285.html

            One of the problems with this disease is that there are so many claims and counter claims that it is difficult to know which to believe. Something that all should remember is that half of all medical studies cannot be replicated! I’m sure the percentage is higher for those studies that are poorly designed or implemented.

          • I started taking HCQ in June for lupus. The pamphlets that come with my pills mention possible interaction with remdesivir.

    • “ Possible long lasting damage just emerging. ”

      Is this the new scare? I thought most news reports ended with …“and a 3 month old died of Covid.”

  29. Is this a pandemic in name only? I have to wonder how things would have unfolded if the “expert” “epidemiologists” managed to get their predictions right at the beginning of this. Here in Ontario, at the beginning of April, we were told to expect “up to 15,000 COVID-19 deaths with health measures in place.” Those “measures” were the lockdown, social distancing and the usual nonsense.

    “Now when you think that the mortality of this disease is up to 10 times higher and when you remember that we have no vaccine, no specific treatment, and this disease is entirely new to the population, then suddenly this figure of 15,000 becomes entirely logical.”

    https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-forecasts-up-to-15-000-covid-19-deaths-with-health-measures-in-place-1.4880757

    As of today (August 4) 2,782 have died of (or with?) CV-19, with approximately 80% of that total in long-term care homes. Up to 10 times higher? Nope. There are about 1,500 deaths in Ontario linked to seasonal flu. So if in April the “experts” said, “the mortality of this disease is 2 times higher” than seasonal flu and it mostly impacts the elderly and infirm, would the nutty lockdown have been imposed?

    It’s time to defund epidemiologists.

  30. According to ycharts.com we are down to 542 death per day for the US on Aug 3. We were at 413 on Aug 2. The US has about 1500 deaths per day from lung cancer. This could be decreased significantly if we banned cigarettes. Smoking is actually more of a public health problem than covid. If we can use stay-at-home orders for covid why can’t we use no-smoking orders for cigarettes? Something is weirdly twisted here! Believe me, I certainly understand freedom of choice when it comes to lifestyle. Why is one lifestyle choice different from another?

    • Cigarettes bring in too much tax money to ban. Like liquor stores being declared essential businesses during the shutdown.

  31. The full force of the resultant economic catastrophe has yet to be felt, and it will be devastating. A year from now in Canada, perhaps a fifth of our population will have fallen out of the middle class. That’s what’s coming, and all of the people whose recommendations and policies have caused that ruin will be insulated by their own wealth and social connections from it.

  32. The thugocracy states have largely defeated the virus, mainly in their fake reporting to WHO.

  33. Will NPR report on this evidence?

    —-

    COVID-19 study in Australia confirms low transmission in educational settings
    Transmission of COVID-19 in schools is less than other respiratory viruses
    Date:
    August 4, 2020
    Source:
    University of Sydney
    Summary:
    New research from Australia finds COVID-19 transmission rates in New South Wales schools and early childcare education and care settings were minimal, particularly between children and from children to adults.

  34. The next emergency will be just like this one, whatever the “experts” say it is. I am still alarmed to see how easily the citizens surrendered their rights and freedoms to the government.

    • The next emergency will be guided by lessons learned from this emergency, and won’t be handled quite like this one, I would guess.

      I don’t think we should expect perfect solutions when we are in a situation that noone on Earth has ever faced before. In those circumstances many mistakes are inevitable. Requiring perfection is requiring too much, because all of us are stumbling around in the dark over the Wuhan virus. Some people think they have it all figured out, but I don’t think so. I think we still have a ways to go to work ourselves out of this mess, although it looks like we are going to have some kind of vaccine fairly soon.

      When the Wuhan virus first emerged and there was talk of a vaccine, I thought to myself that I would not be vaccinated immediately, I would wait and see how it affected others, but after seeing all these reports of the multiple kinds of damage the Wuhan virus can do to the body, even in people with mild symtoms, I have decided the vaccine is less of a risk than catching the Wuhan virus, and I will take the vaccine as soon as it is available to me.

  35. The Covid death rate has dropped in the US…

    Because the US population is less ‘Vitamin’ D deficient in the summer, than in the winter.

    If the US population does not all take Vitamin D supplement the covid death rate will increase in the winter.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/03/florida-reports-lowest-single-day-increase-in-coronavirus-cases-since-june/

    Florida Death Rate is Five Times less 1.4% than the New York Death Rate.

    On Monday, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci over his past criticisms of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and his handling of the pandemic.

    “FL and NY have an identical number of per capita coronavirus infections but FL has 5X less per capita deaths,” Paul pointed out.

    The US Vit. D deficiency data does not give the winter/summer change.

    We can assume the summer/winter change would be similar to Canada. The summer/winter Vit. D population statistic was taken from statistic Canada’s web site. Stat Canada took summer and winter blood samples to determine Canadian’s Vitamin D deficiency status:

    40% of Canadian are Vitamin D deficient in the winter, active Vit. D blood serum levels less than 20 ng/ml in the winter

    …. While only 25 percent of Canadian, are Vitamin D deficient in the summer, blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml in the summer.

    The chemical active Vitamin D is required by every cell in our body to access each individual cell’s complete copy of our genome.

    Our cells access their copy of our genome when that type of cell…

    … needs to do something and the cell requires new cellular apparatus to perform the microbiological action.

    …. like enable us to stand up and not fall down or to response/defend against to a stimulus like a virus attack which it cannot make without accessing the genome and it can only access the genome using the active Vitamin D.

    When we are Vitamin D deficient, our body’s response to virus attacks, our ability to maintain our muscles and to have lots of muscle, to not fall down, to be able to lift heavy objects, to defend against cancer, to defend against type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and so on is not adequate or optimum.

    People feel look and act different that are Vitamin D deficient. Vitamin D deficient people are weak, they have balance issues. They have more falls. They will over time have smaller functioning brains, as they have lost more of their brain cells to ‘age’.

    At 80 years of age based on measurement the range in functioning brain cells in the US population is roughly 20% to 80%.

    Optimum Vitamin D level is greater than 60 ng/ml, based on the woman’s breast cancer study ( a reduction in breast cancer of 80% with calcium supplements), our body repair systems, defense systems, control systems, muscles, and so on do not work optimally as only some of our cells get the additions required for them to provide the best …

    Protection, performance, and so on.

    An actived Vitamin D level greater than 60 ng/ml is the level for maximum muscle performance, muscle repair, and to build new muscle. Professional athlete trainers, measure Vitamin D level and ensure it is controlled and managed for professional athletes.

    It is physically impossible for a Vitamin D deficient person to be a professional athlete. Our bodies cannot work optimally without the active Vitamin D chemical

    Vitamin D enables our muscles to contract for example and enables are body to build more muscle.

    Vitamin D has been found, in the men’s prostate study to shrink the prostate tumour, by turning on a gene that stops inflammation in our body which has been shown in the breast, colon, prostate, and stomach studies reduce the incidence of the cancer in question by 60% to 80%. Similar reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

    Regardless of sex or age those how have Vit. D blood serum level that is less than 20 ng/ml have a 19 times greater chance of dying from covid or having serious covid symptoms.

    Cohorts of very, very, Vitamin D deficient people.

    The average blood stream Vit. D levels for a random sample of elderly woman in the US, ages 63 to 99, found that the average Vit. D level measured in the ladies was 12 ng/ml.

    Obese people unless they take Vitamin D supplements also have a blood serum level around 15 ng/ml. Vitamin D deficiency explains why obese people get kidney ‘disease’ and end up on dialysis.

    The most Vitamin D deficient young people, in the Vitamin D deficiency studies are those those woman who must wear complete skin covering when going outside. Those women commonly have Vit. D levels below 10 ng/ml.

    https://emerginnova.com/patterns-of-covid19-mortality-and-vitamin-d-an-indonesian-study/

    Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study

    Vitamin D Insufficient Patients are 12.55 times, more likely to die or have serious organ damage, blood serum 25(OH)D level from 21 to 29 ng/ml

    Vitamin D Deficient Patients 19.12 times, more likely to die or have serious organ damage, Vitamin D blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml

    Vitamin D ‘normal’ for this study is 25(0H)D above 30 ng/ml.

    82% of the US black population, 69% of the US Hispanic, and 42% of the US general population is Vitamin D deficient.

    Prevalence and correlates of vitamin D deficiency in US adults.
    https://tahomaclinic.com/Private/Articles4/WellMan/Forrest%202011%20-%20Prevalence%20and%20correlates%20of%20vitamin%20D%20deficiency%20in%20US%20adults.pdf

    Our cells have a complete copy of our genome in each cell.

    Our cells need Vitamin D to access their copy of our genome when they need to build something to produce chemicals to defend our body or to make our body work.

    For example, muscle cells, require the Vitamin D to enable them to contract.

    This is a video that explains what Vitamin D does in the body.

    https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/McDonnell-2018-breast-cancer-GRH.pdf

    The proportion with breast cancer was 78% lower for >60 ng/ml vs <20 ng/ml (P = 0.02). Third, multivariate Cox regression revealed that women with 25(OH)D concentrations 60 ng/ml had an 80% lower risk of breast cancer than women with concentrations 60 ng/ml being most protective.

    Finally, Missing link between vitamin D prostate cancer

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141022164052.htm

    • I’m not sure if I’m on Team Vitamin D, but here’s some more research on the Vitamin D / CV-19 link:

      https://borsche.de/res/Vitamin_D_Essentials_EN.pdf

      “To sum it all up: If all people, especially the seniors, had a vitamin D level significantly above 30 ng/ml, rather above 40 ng/ml, there would be a high probability that we would not have to fear Covid-19. At 45 ng/ml, as found in native, traditional living peoples near the equator, we should hope to lose practically no one because of Covid-19, unless the comorbidities are so severe that it would have been a matter of days or weeks anyway.”

      • Conclusion
        Drink your frigging milk

        most don’t anymore, maybe those old doctors really know something.

  36. In 2019 the U.S. average death rate per day was about 7,890 compered to less than 1,000 reported from COVID-19. And many of these could be from something else. In Minnesota the numbers are about 120 and only 5. And 78% of the 5 are from nursing homes and care centers. By the way, U.S abortions run at about 2,300 per day.

  37. Is it possible that these modelers will be held accountable for their disastrous and deeply flawed computer projections? Nope. And to think they cannot get anything close (days or weeks) to what was observed and these same wing nuts want us to believe climate models that forecast not days, weeks or months, but years into the future what are climate will be like. The COVID17 better known as the Wuhan virus experience will call into question these supposed “experts.” No thanks. I have a brain and am using it. If I hear “expert” in a sentence you can count on it I will be “skeptical” or better yet a “denier.”

  38. Well to be fair, it’s not over yet, so it could possibly be 1.1M deaths, though it doesn’t seem to be heading that way. The article didn’t seem to give a date by which the 1.1M deaths would occur.

    However, given that deaths are overcounted (anyone who dies that tests positive for covid will count despite the actual cause of death), and cases are undercounted (many asymptomatic or not sick enough to seek treatment), the actual death rate so far is most certainly lower than the statistics show.

  39. From the above article’s first sentence: “. . . flawed assumption about the volatility of COVID19.”

    Shouldn’t the word “lethality” replace “volatility”? Or am I missing something important here?

    Should I worry about:
    1. COVID-19 changing rapidly and unpredictably, especially as regards its emotions?
    2. Evaporating at much lower (or much higher) temperatures/pressures than presently believed?
    3. COVIS-19 being listed and actively traded on one of the major commodity exchanges?

    Of course, I can make allowance for this because I know that Anthony has been dealing with MUCH larger issues over the last several weeks . . .

  40. “”The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

    That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.

    And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 “may be considerably less than 1%.”

    This is not news

    • No kidding, if they didn’t kill so many people in nursing homes we would be yawning over Covid.

  41. It would have been less deadly and less harmful with proactive treatment (e.g. HCQ+Zn+AZ) to mitigate disease progression, without Planned Parent, with emigration reform, enforcing confentional hygienic habits to reduce cross-contamination in medical facilities etc., and controlling social contagion to limit runs on providers.

  42. Deadliest rate I’ve seen is about One in Eight-Point-Five-Million.

    It’s more than three orders of magnitude behind dying from old age without co-morbidity.

  43. If the vulnerable were extremely locked down ( only the ones willing to be ) and the rest of society placed on no restrictions herd immunity would be reached very fast and fatalities would be low. Especially now with doctors having much better therapies. This boils down to a fairly simple exercise in optimization.

  44. From the article: “An NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been based on a flawed assumption about the volatility of COVID19. We already know that the model used to initially predict infection and death rates was completely flawed, and now discredited, along with the modeler Neil Ferguson of London’s Imperial College.

    Back in 2005, Ferguson claimed up to 200 million might die from the Avian flu, but in reality, only about 100 did. In March 2020, Ferguson was queried by The New York Times with the question: “what the best-case scenario was for the US during the COVID pandemic?”

    “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said. So far, as of this writing, 154,471 deaths have been recorded according to the CDC.

    Ferguson’s model numbers overreached reality by about a factor of ten.”

    Well, President Trump’s Wuhan virus computer model was right on the money.

    President Trump used the figures of 100,000 to 140,000 mitigated deaths (social distancing at 50 percent), and up to 2.2 million deaths if no mitigation was taken.

    Trump’s model hit right about in the middle of the 100,000 to 140,000 educated guess with around 125,000 deaths by the time the lockdowns were lifted.

    Since the lockdowns were lifted, the new estimate is that there will be about 250,000 total mitigated deaths by the end of the year.

    I saw Sean Hannity say on tv yesterday that all the models were junk. Wrong Sean. Trump’s model wasn’t junk.

  45. From the article: “The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.”

    How does the claim that even mild cases of the Wuhan virus may cause serious longterm adverse health effects figure into this “appears less dangerous” assertion? My guess is it wasn’t figured in, otherwise the author would not have made that assertion.

  46. From the article: “Basically, the “nanny state” politicians decided to shut down the global economy to protect people from a contagious virus that has resulted in no symptoms or mild symptoms for up to 90 percent of the people who contracted it.

    This will eventually go down as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, scientific and political blunders of the 21st century.”

    I don’t agree. We knew nothing about this virus in the beginning. Had it been as lethal as the Ebola virus, the author wouldn’t be making all these claims. He would be wondering why we didn’t lockdown harder and longer.

    Making judgements “after the fact” is real easy. Anyone can do that.

    Making judgements “before the fact” is what is difficult and is what takes leadership.

    There are lots of Monday-morning quarterbacks. They knew/know just how things should have gone. Too bad they didn’t weigh in at the beginning of the pandemic.

    But of course, they couldn’t weigh in because they didn’t know any more about the Wuhan virus than anyone else. But, now that they do, they are more than happy to opine on what should have been done. Too little, too late. Thanks for nothing. Quit whining.

    • It made sense to take serious measures in the early days when the Chinese were treating this as SARS 2.0 and we knew it shared a lot of genetics with that disease. But few governments were willing to take such measures at that time, like closing down international travel, so they tripled-down once the disease hit the West and locked everyone up.

      But it wasn’t long after that that we finally got some useful information about spread and severity from the Diamond Princess, and once we knew that the fatality rate was only about 1% in a population that was significantly older than normal, it was clear this wasn’t a disease which needed such measures. Governments should have locked down care homes and other vulnerable people and relaxed all the other measures… but once they’d gone down that path, few governments wanted to come back.

      Now the free money is coming to an end, people are starting to notice that the economy has been wrecked and not many people are dying. And they’re going to be pissed when they realize how badly governments mismanaged this thing.

  47. As I’ve said before, my perception of all this has not changed since day one — H U G E ! … over reaction !!

    Now it’s just getting stupider and stupider. HUGELY stupid, in other words. HUGELY

    Did I mention HUGELY ?

  48. Here’s some good OT news, hot off the press: Gallup poll says about 84 percent of those polled think the Leftwing Media is responsible for the divisions in the United States. Maybe there’s hope afterall ! 🙂

  49. I recall seeing some video of people walking in public spaces in China and all were masked, yet the software associated with the video showed indentification symbols around every face on the screen. Masks obviously did not hide their identify. I hear some software can recongnize you by looking at the back of your head, once they acquire your picture.

  50. AW writes

    Back in 2005, Ferguson claimed up to 200 million might die from the Avian flu, but in reality, only about 100 did.

    I’m not sure Ferguson did claim this. I believe he was speculating on what might happen if the Avian Flu virus evolved by which it could be transmitted between humans. That’s a completely different scenario.

    I’m not a fan of Ferguson but we need to be fair. Ferguson has developed a model which he ran under a range of scenarios & assumptions. These were the best ‘guesses’ at the time, e.g. IFR of 0.9% and fully susceptible population. We hoped IFR would be lower and that some of the population had prior immunity but no-one knew for sure.

    As it happens his predictions for the UK – given the mitigating action taken – were close to the mark.

    I would criticise the model for it’s lack of sophistication. The results are too similar to those produced from a basic SIR model. Ferguson may have allowed for some geographic separation but, as Nic Lewis pointed out, apart from that there is very little heterogeneity assumed. That said, I think Nic’s estimate for Herd Immunity threshold is very optimistic.

    This, unfortunately, sums up the debate. Ferguson gets hammered while ‘experts’ on the other side get a free pass. We lack true scepticism.

    • “Professor Neil Ferguson’s modelling which warned 500,000 people could die from coronavirus and prompted Britain to go into lockdown.”

      Didn’t know UK had half a million deaths?

    • Trump is getting hammered all day everyday even though with a much more complex situation and a huge country to deal with the US has done better than most European countries all you have to do is look at the deaths per Million. That’s with the US incentivising reporting death as Covid caused when they are really in many cases not.
      If Trump was smart he would use all the news outlets saying models predict 2,000,000 could die! and show how well we have actually done in comparison.

  51. Top 10 USA states by deaths per million population all Democrat run states. NY, NJ, Mass, Conn, RI, Louisiana, District of colombia, Michigan, IL, Delaware.

  52. I think this article and the comments are a perfect slice of the greater population.

    I’ve said it since the beginning and I’ll say it again here: We simply don’t know until reliable antibody tests are widely conducted and the data analyzed without noise is analyzed.

    One comment struck me greatly: factor out the noise. How much of these numbers that we have is noise? We don’t know. How many people actually died OF this virus and subsequent disease? We don’t know. How many deaths were brought about by incorrectly assuming ventilators would be the answer? We don’t know. How many were saved by being intubated? We don’t know. Why? IMO–lack of standardization. Reporting is not standardized even in counties of the same state, heck from town to town in some places. HOW can it not be standardized? All that leads to is inference and fear of the unknown.

    JMHO here, but until we clean the standardized data properly for analysis and use that for training a predictive model, this will turn into a witch hunt against anyone that doesn’t wear a mask in public and could degrade into “immunity” and those without them being shunned from taking part in economic recovery.

  53. Actually, his prediction was 500,000 UK deaths *if no action was taken to limit the spread of the virus”
    So far 46,364 persons have died in the UK (who tested positive for the virus).
    307,184 have tested positive for the virus (and the UK testing regime is completely pathetic, with many contracts for testing given on the basis of “mates first, competent second”).
    So far over £100 million has been given to companies for various covid functions, mainly they are owned by ruling political party friends and donors!!
    A complete 4000 bed temporary hospital was built, BUT NO STAFF EXISTED TO ENABLE IT TO BE USED! They even considered instantly qualifying army grunts as nurses to be able to use the beds!
    So far, in excess of 1000 NHS medical staff have died from the disease, with several thousand having various stages of illness.
    How you doing over there?

  54. As highlighted by a John Helmer article: http://johnhelmer.net/no-second-wave-pandemic-in-russia-pavel-volchkov-russian-leader-in-genomic-engineering-he-rejected-harvard-for-moscow-explains-why/
    Several European studies utilizing ELISPOT testing showed that actual COVID-19/nCOV exposure is 200% to 300% higher than antibody testing shows.
    This is because someone with a mild/asymptomatic case of nCOV won’t necessarily generate high levels of antibodies. Also, someone who was exposed a significant time in the past may have lost their antibodies.
    The thesis behind Volchkov’s comments above is that the true immunity to nCOV comes from T-cell and B-cell memory – which is what ELISPOT checks.
    Which in turn means that a lot more people were exposed to nCOV in the hotspot states/nations than anyone thinks. This is furthermore consistent with the rapidly dropping numbers of deaths per million, per day in those areas.
    In contrast, the states and nations which locked down and/or were never exposed – they are seeing no/minimal reduction in deaths. Look at California for example.
    So it seems we already have herd immunity in some areas.
    Until we get a vaccine tested, approved, manufactured, distributed and administered – for which another year seems highly optimistic in the US – the current lockdown plans seem increasingly pointless and overall destructive. Nor is the US exhibiting any form of skill with contact tracing/testing/quarantine.

  55. I wrote the following on March 23, 2020 in response to a Yahoo article titled:

    Harsh Steps are Needed to Stop the Coronavirus, Experts Say

    “I predict that when we we do an after action analysis we will find that this virus has been around for quite some time and that many people have been infected without serious symptoms. If you Google “history of AIDS” you will find that it was likely in the US for 20 years before we figured out it was here. COVID-19 spreads more quickly than AIDS, but I have no doubt it’s been around longer than we know now. What that means is …. it is nowhere near as deadly as some people fear. If 10 out of 100 people diagnosed with the disease die, that is very deadly. But, if there are 10,000 people with the disease who have not been diagnosed, that’s 10 deaths out of 10,100 cases. That is more like the flu, not something to ignore, but not something to panic about either.”

    My wife says I can have something of a “superior” attitude at times, but I think if you are consistently right when others are wrong, the attitude is justified even if it isn’t popular.

  56. I’ve said it since the beginning and I’ll say it again here: We simply don’t know until reliable antibody tests are widely conducted and the data analyzed without noise is analyzed.

    Has now been done in Italy and Spain. More than 60k participants each, representative for the whole country and population demographic. Infection fatality rate in Spain was ~1.2%, in Italy ~2.3% calculated from confirmed COVID-19 deaths not general excess mortality. Both nations have additional >10k more excess deaths than normal that have not been officially attributed to COVID-19. That would make the IFR even higher.

  57. “Both humoral and cellular immune responses are impaired in aged individuals, leading to decreased vaccine responses. Although T cell defects occur, defects in B cells play a significant role in age-related humoral immune changes. The ability to undergo class switch recombination (CSR), the enzyme for CSR, AID (activation-induced cytidine deaminase) and the transcription factor E47 are all decreased in aged stimulated B cells” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3040253/

  58. Our local casino just started requiring us to remove our mask and look at the camera when we enter, then put the mask back on. I surmise that their software does not recognize us with the mask on. They need to be able to keep people out that are on their naughty list and they would like to be able to identify us if we are naughty while there.

  59. https://bestlifeonline.com/why-people-hardly-covid-symptoms/

    “This could help explain why some people show milder symptoms of disease while others get severely sick.”

    This article claims getting the common cold may give some immunity to the Wuhan virus.

    Since children are exposed to these cold and flu viruses all the time, that may explain why they don’t have much trouble with the Wuhan.

    I, on the other hand, have not had a cold or the flu in so long that I can’t remember the last time. So I’m wondering if that puts me at greater risk.

    I have heard others here who have said they have not had the flu in a long time, too.

    I wonder what percentage of the population has managed to avoid colds and flu for years? Would these people be at particular risk?

    • A childs immune response is a few orders of magnitude better than that of an aged person. As a person ages, a process called “involution”. What is the thymus?
      “The thymus is a specialized primary lymphoid organ of the immune system. Within the thymus, Thymus cell lymphocytes or T cells mature. T cells are critical to the adaptive immune system, where the body adapts specifically to foreign invaders”
      That is your explanation as to why older people are much more prone to serious infection with new pathogens.
      As to why Sars-cov-2 is really good at infecting a body: “SARS-CoV-2 is an unusual one: it manages to block the interferon-I and III response quite thoroughly, while setting off a larger-than-normal cytokine secretion response”.
      It knocks-out the primary body response to a viral infection, which them depends upon the adaptive immune response.

  60. “Basically, the “nanny state” politicians decided to shut down the global economy to protect people from a contagious virus that has resulted in no symptoms or mild symptoms for up to 90 percent of the people who contracted it”

    Nanny , Monckton.

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