From the “all models are wrong, some are completely useless” department. This was originally from May 6th, but it’s so bad, we deserve a reminder just as we are about to emerge from the final phases of lockdown here in California.
From the National Review:
‘Professor Lockdown’ Modeler Resigns in Disgrace
Neil Ferguson is the British academic who created the infamous Imperial College model that warned Boris Johnson that, without an immediate lockdown, the coronavirus would cause 500,000 deaths and swamp the National Health Service.
Johnson’s government promptly abandoned its Sweden-like “social distancing” approach, and Ferguson’s model also influenced the U.S. to make lockdown moves with its shocking prediction of over two million Americans dead.
Johan Giesecke, the former chief scientist for the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, has called Ferguson’s model “the most influential scientific paper” in memory. He also says it was, sadly, “one of the most wrong.”
Full story here