Aussie Covid-19 Lockdown Chaos

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

How not to run a Covid-19 lockdown; The Victorian Government has responded to a sudden winter surge in Covid-19 cases with a rushed hard lockdown, which has left vulnerable people living in government subsidised housing short of food.

‘It’s horrific’: Residents of Melbourne’s locked-down towers are struggling to receive essential supplies

Residents in Melbourne’s nine locked-down public housing towers have told SBS News they are struggling to receive essential supplies as they adapt to an initial five-day lockdown without warning.

On day three of the public housing estate lockdown, single mother Amina, who does not want to be identified by her full name, said she reached breaking point.

“I don’t think I can handle it anymore,” she told SBS News.

“I am frustrated and angry. I wasn’t prepared at all.”

“They [the children] want fresh milk. They want toast. They want a normal life.”

She said the kids have been living off meals of Weet-Bix breakfast cereal – without milk.

“I can’t keep them fed anymore … I don’t know how to explain. I didn’t expect this.”

Read more: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/it-s-horrific-residents-of-melbourne-s-locked-down-towers-are-struggling-to-receive-essential-supplies

The Victorian Covid outbreak comes in the wake of accusations of utter incompetence in managing Covid quarantines, including allegations quarantine facility security guards were having sex with people they were meant to be isolating.

Security guards ‘who had SEX’ with quarantined travellers inside five-star hotels in Melbourne will be replaced by flight attendants – as Victoria grapples with COVID-19 second wave

By JACKSON BARRON FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

PUBLISHED: 02:38 AEST, 6 July 2020 | UPDATED: 02:44 AEST, 6 July 2020

Security guards are set to be replaced by airline staff in Melbourne‘s quarantine hotels after a sex scandal was linked to Victoria’s second coronavirus wave. 

A job advertisement posted by the Department of Justice on Qantas‘ internal job is calling on airline staff to take over from trained security guards who were tasked with enforcing mandatory 14-day quarantine for returned travellers.

Claims that guards were sexually active with guests in isolation are being investigated as part of a probe into the state’s bungled quarantine program.

Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491777/Security-guards-SEX-quarantined-travellers-replaced-flight-attendants.html

Did I mention Covid-19 testing in Victoria is totally voluntary, even for people in quarantine who recently returned from Covid hotspots, and a lot of people refused to be tested?

It is difficult to imagine what else the Victorian government could get wrong, but I am confident they will continue to explore novel ways to bungle their Covid response.

126 thoughts on “Aussie Covid-19 Lockdown Chaos

    • “Jimmy Haigh July 7, 2020 at 2:03 am

      The panicdemic continues apace.”

      The MEDIA continues to report the fake pandemic apace. Reality is very different.

      • I remember watching a news snippet about the AFL player who tested positive. He only tested positive in the sixth test, then tested negative a couple more times.

        For a disease with a very low prevalence, the likelihood of a false positive gets quite high, particularly with repeated tests.

        However, the news reported that he had “recovered” from the virus. The trouble is, most viewers will believe that.

        • Guards having sex with detainees in COVID-19 Lockdown facilities….
          Now the world knows Victoria’s Secret

        • Yes Conor McKenna. AFL players are possibly the most tested people on the planet. Tested between 2 and 3 times every week! Conor tested -ve, -ve, -ve, -ve, +ve, -ve, -ve etc. How could there be just one positive test sandwiched between multiple negative tests just days apart? Poor guy was ostracized by the Australian media at the time.

          If you look behind the headlines, you’ll find significant trade union interference and influence on the Victorian Governments covid responses. Andrews is the biggest puppet of the Australia Trade Union movement in Australia, more than any other Federal or State based politician – and its starting to now show, that too many ‘cooks spoil the broth’ so to speak.

    • Dan Andrews has been slowly changing his English.
      The new lockdown is now our fault because we didn’t follow his rules.
      No mention that he allowed the BLM protest.

      • His government also contracted untrained security staff to guard infected people, something he has been trying to bury (we are to busy to discuss that).

      • blm and the ex reb nutters and another blm the other day
        a lot of the hirise residents are very dark so youd bet they attended
        as for their moaning
        well if theyd given notice a goodly percentage would have done a runner
        govt wont admit it but thats why
        and as for any parent with 5 kids or more getting 2k or near enough a week govt handouts , on subsidised rental if she cant keep a few extra UHT milks and enough food inthe pantry its HER stupidity not anyone elses
        a huge amount of the residents are handoutharrys after anything free or connable from govt
        they do it very well too.
        if youre here and have got through the detention etc then English lessons were given and they should speak or keep practicing
        betcha mention money they understand damnd fast!
        now theyre testing
        whoopty doo
        cos the tested ones are mingling all over the units NOT staying inside so neg tests done sunday will possibly be positives if tested in a week!

      • Best comment off adelaide news;
        Melbourne is back in lockdown from tomorrow.

        I’m thinking of organising a BLM rally for all my friends this weekend so we can hang out.

        Who’s in?

        — Avi Yemini 🇦🇺🇮🇱 (@OzraeliAvi) July 7, 2020

  1. The State of Victoria imposed the strictest COVID-19 restrictions but somehow managed to be the “worst” state for infection figures. Is that because of more testing or just flat out blatant stupidity. I err on the latter IMO!

  2. I feel your pain. This is the third day that my shipper hasn’t delivered any of the Krug 2004…

    The Honourable Linda Dessau AC

  3. “It is difficult to imagine what else the Victorian government could get wrong”
    You have a lot wrong in just this short post. The general lockdown is not responsible for food issues in the towers; it hasn’t even started yet. There is a specific lockdown in the towers due to a sudden large number of infections in those particular buildings. The Government has supply arrangements; they may not give everyone exactly what they want, but getting sick from covid is not a great alternative.

    There were difficulties with supervised quarantine, but at least they did it, requiring it for all people coming from overseas.. Places like UK and USA just relied on an honour system. The fact is that a state government can’t just whistle up an army of trained quarantine supervisors i government employment.

    It’s true they can’t force people to be tested – do you think that people should be forced? How? Thrown to the ground with a swab thrust up their nose?

    The fact is that Australia, and Victoria in particular, have done very well by acting very promptly in the face of infection. Victoria has had a total of 2660 cases, and 22 deaths. Tennessee, say, which has about the same population, has 51636 cases and 645 deaths. The current lockdown is in response to a sudden rise, with a total of 191 cases today. Tennessee has been getting about 1500 cases per day. I think Victoria has been doing something right.

        • Give me a break, Patrick. You don’t know what you’re talking about. (I initially phrased this a bit differently, but didn’t want to give the wrong impression.)

          • We know most deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 when there is no evidence they died, specifically, OF COVID-19. We knoe many death have been attributed to COVID-19 due to financial incentives to record deaths as such. Many cases people died due to comorbidity issues, first 3 in NSW, all frail, ill people over 90. One case in NSW, a 30-something man, died. Initially attributed to COVID-19.

            I know about as much as you and Nick on the matter however, I do have many family members who are health professional. So phrase away all you like you can’t hide the truth no matter how hard the media is trying.

      • Nick
        They have moved the goalposts.
        We had to flatten the curve to avoid the healthcare system being overwhelmed.
        Victoria had about 500 icu beds
        The government have supposedly funded 4000 extra icu beds.
        Now we are supposed to eliminate the virus.
        Give me a break!
        Right now there are only NINE (9) covid patients in icu

          • Depends what you are trying to do … 4500 if you are trying to slowly build up immunity, 0 if you are trying to eradicate.

          • How many would you like to see?

            This is a very difficult question to answer. The best answer may not seem the most ethical.

            Suppose an actual effective, safe vaccine was years away. If that turns out to be true, then trying to “eliminate” the virus rather than flatten the curve only postpones the inevitable and meanwhile the economy continues to suffer.

            The worst negative impacts of this in the economy may be considerably lagged and we may be yet to see them.

          • Now, or in three months? Are you trying to buy time, or to create a false hope?

          • Now, or in three months? Are you trying to buy time, or to create a false hope?

            If it turns out a vaccine is months away, say by about the end of the year, then it’ll be clear that Australia and New Zealand have done the best and right thing.

          • 4500.

            The government (read TAXPAYER) has funded those beds. Also, by preventing the taxpayer from actually going about their lives they are financially worse off, so in real terms they are being forced to pay for those beds twice.

            Use them or lose them.

            The role of hospitals in modern society is to protect and improve lives. The role of society is NOT to protect hospitals. If we flip quickly over to the UK the Brits should not be worshiping the NHS and giving thanks it is still alive, they should be demanding it is pushed to breaking point to stop their friends and family from dying.

            Pragmatic response? If you had a choice between saving multiple lives and burning a hospital to the ground, which would you take? The morally correct answer is to start passing out the matches. You can always rebuild a hospital.

            If the medical system is not on verge of collapse it is not a real medical emergency.

        • 8mil spent on a refurb hospital in geelong
          not ONE patient
          we just got elective surgeries underway and one hosp has 7? staff positives so diversions elsewhere. right stuff up.
          refusing a swab or a saliva test to be allowed OUT of quarantine isnt a big ask, seeing as theyve had FREE 14 days 4star acom food etc .

        • Flatten the curve was all about the model based prediction of the numbers of infected people over-loading health system. None of it happened!

      • Nick Stokes
        July 7, 2020 at 2:50 am

        Nick, am asking you a simple question.
        This is not a climate change issue, hopefully you understand this.

        Before the question, let me give you the line of the story, a story that you may consider it fictional or whatever.

        In the consideration of COVID-19 global insanity we are at the point where the criminally insane are engaging in covering their crimes by causing severity and death to new borne babies. As without such they and their crimes are exposed.

        Drastic and sharp crazy further lockdowns only aiming at achieving that goal, but that not only it.

        A further direct step is taken and initiated already in poor shit hole countries, at this point.
        Where attempts in fully closing and full maternity lockdowns initiated already, under the excuse of COVID-19.

        In consideration of this;
        Which side of the fence you wanna be Nick?

        Do you think full closure and maternity lockdowns are justifiable under any circumstance, any where in this world, in the 21st century, Nick!!!

        Strict rapid with no much prior warning lockdowns, are still very costly to the living standards and highly risky to the life and health of the very young and young ones.

        Well, you are welcome to ignore this!

        cheers

        • If y’all had kept your guns, you could do something about irrational overbearing government.

          • Patrick, I still have the firearms I had before the laws were brought in, and have purchased several extra since. Australia has higher numbers of civilian-owned firearms now than before. I’m not the greatest supporter of the gun laws here, but it is far from the situation you describe.

          • “StuF July 7, 2020 at 6:42 pm

            Australia has higher numbers of civilian-owned firearms now than before.”

            Totally correct. And the number of gun crimes rose since the policy was imposed.

    • Full of crap again Nick. (I was thinking of being polite but it just does not work on the Nicksticle).

        • “Nick Stokes July 7, 2020 at 2:43 am”

          Is that because you spout the usual BS?

        • “The fact is that Australia, and Victoria in particular, have done very well by acting very promptly in the face of infection. ”

          So your definition of success is inflicting economic damage and then having to live in a state of perpetual fear and sporadic disruption for eternity.

          Personally, I’d rather be in Sweden.

          To preempt – thousands of lives saved? No, lots of poor-quality-of-life sick end-of-life lives extended a brief while.

          • The total number of deaths can be said to be increased by lock downs because of the massive extra population stress. The % infected in the long term will not be much changed with lock down, just slowed down – unless there is some other way to stop the spread – like a vaccine – which may never come.

    • Dan Andrews has been slowly changing his English.
      The new lockdown is now our fault because we didn’t follow his rules.
      No mention that he allowed the BLM protest.

      • He did not allow the BLM protest. He deplored it, and fined the organisers. But there was not a lockdown at the time. And how do you actually stop a gathering of 10000 people? Tear gas and truncheons, US style? That is not our tradition.

        There is no evidence that infections resulted from the BLM march. Other states had them without outbreaks.

        • Nick
          You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time.
          You are living the lie or you are being fooled.
          No ANZAC day parade ( veterans march) 25 April
          BLM protest allowed 6 June.
          Even if there was not a single case from the protest the damage was done.
          The “all of the people “ have had enough of the hypocrisy

          • “No ANZAC day parade ( veterans march) 25 April
            BLM protest allowed 6 June.”

            The BLM protest was not “allowed”.
            But the situation in June was very different from April. Smaller outdoor gatherings were allowed. Restaurants were open. Football training had begun. The first AFL game was June 11th.

          • Nick
            You are absolutely hopeless
            Allow – let someone do something.
            Dan Andrews let the protesters protest.
            Dan Andrews allowed the protest.

        • He deplored it, and fined the organisers.

          ROFL!

          That’ll teach the other 9997 people on the street!

        • Chairman Dan specifically came out before the protest and said that protesters would not be fined, so he did not say go protest, but gave more of a nudge nudge wink wink, go ahead as no consequence.

          It was only the following day where, after criticism of his initial response, he said they should not protest but re-affirmed he would not fine people if they did but that the organisers might get fined.

          Contrast that to NSW who took the protest organisers to the supreme court to try and get it stopped.

          He definitely did not ‘Deplore’ it

          • “Contrast that to NSW who took the protest organisers to the supreme court to try and get it stopped.”
            Tried and failed. It would have failed in Vic too. So what was gained?

            “He definitely did not ‘Deplore’ it”
            He did.
            “Worried about coronavirus, Daniel Andrews urges Victorians to avoid Black Lives Matter rally”

          • Dan said in that link “I’m not going to the protest. I would suggest to other people they shouldn’t go to the protest either,”

            I would hardly call that ‘Deplore it’

            You are correct, NSW failed in the supreme court, but that sent a true ‘Deplore’ message about the protest, not Dans ‘suggest’ message.

            But the whole point of my response was you stating he Deplored it and I contrasted the Vic ‘weak’ messaging to the NSW ‘strong’ messaging, can’t get much stronger than taking it to the supreme court to try and stop it, compared to an ‘I suggest but will not fine you’ message from Dan.

          • “Dan said in that link “I’m not going to the protest. I would suggest to other people they shouldn’t go to the protest either,””

            Voting with his feet.

            “but that sent a true ‘Deplore’ message about the protest”
            It also gave the NSW march the effective backing of the Supreme Court.

    • The situation in NSW is much better.Once the first outbreak started in the Ryde area the police were out door knocking to make sure the suspect incubators were still home.
      When strident passengers from the Ruby princess ‘plague ship’ were complaining of being locked into 5 star accommodation, the police were there.
      The situation in the UK is derisory, best not start there.
      The wider problem is that the health guidelines allow a positive person to quarantine for 14 days then go free……..without testing again to see if they are actually free of the disease.OK they could be locked down for a little longer, but still let out.
      This is appalling.
      So little is known of the carrier state of this disease, with widespread availability of tests, this testing must be made mandatory.Surely these medicos have heard of the immune suppressed carrier state of viruses.
      As for ‘not being able to force people to take tests’this is a peculiar part of the human ‘rights’ legislation in Victoria.
      However others have a prior right to be made safe from in contact potentially active carriers.
      The parliament must sit and pass legislation to enforce this, just as it did for drug and alcohol testing in motor vehicles.
      The only thing that prevents them is the reality that there could be a motion of no confidence in the government if it sat.
      Just because the situation in some other country is worse than ours does not mean that despite the knowledge we have , incompetence abounds.
      Victoria has a problem with its police force, who don’t want to be nannys.
      Understandable, but lethal now for the two more dead in Victoria.
      The fundamental existential problem is the failure to produce an effective vaccine.
      In the meanwhile spin is useless, the bugs simply don’t know, they just do their thing.

    • The Victorian government operated on the coat tails of the Federal government who closed down the international borders. Then they couldn’t even get the quarantining of those that did arrive right.

      Like it or not people coming from overseas were still on a variation of honor system

      So not so many years ago there were infectious disease hospitals and quarantine stations in Victoria.
      You contracted a infectious disease or came into the country with an infectious disease you were obligated to go there. My mother developed TB in the late sixties. Compulsory isolation in a sanitarium.

      There were no real guards on those facilities – it was an honour system to protect the health of a greater population. And it worked.

      Today in Multicultural Victoria infected persons are left with their families (to infect them too). Just n case isolation causes distress with the family. Now we are all paying for that policy.

      There are 500 police on hand to enforce a lockdown of 3000 persons. That,s 1 policeman for 6 persons.
      Something wrong here.

      • “Like it or not people coming from overseas were still on a variation of honor system”
        No, they were required to stay for two weeks in designated hotel accommodation, with security guards to make sure they stayed there.

        This was all organised over a period of about two weeks in March. The epidemic has its own unforgiving timetable. Comparable jurisdictions in the UK and USA did not even try. And infection rates in Australia, even Victoria, were far lower.

          • The average normal flu season fatalities for Australia is around 3000.
            This year, because of the lockdowns, social distancing and mask wearing the common flu fatality rate is way, way down. So far.

            Even so the current common flu fatality rate combined with the Sars Covid2 fatality rate so far this year is way down from normal.

        • Nick
          Lee is right and you are wrong.
          Home isolation was and is still allowed.
          One work colleague isolate in caravan in yard
          One work colleague isolate at home while family stay at in-laws
          Two separate 16 year old classmates of my daughter isolated in bedroom.
          One the the 16 years old was Filipino boy from a large extended family staying in bedroom for 14 days. yeah sure that’ll work.

          Additionally, in the hotels there was no clear cut separation of covid and non covid “guests”. Apparently the security guards weren’t even informed who had it.

        • The security system was not vetted. Didn’t you read the article above?

          Our local organic green grocer has just come out of voluntary isolation. Her and her husband went to a pub a couple of weeks ago. There was someone at the pub who allegedly was in quarantine at a local isolation hotel. That someone was an returned overseas traveler who had just slipped down to the pub for a quick one.
          Luckily everyone signing in at the pub was required to sign in with a contact phone number.

          Where’s your March organised security guards here?

        • Yes depending how you entered Victoria changed how you were treated they were really weird when we compared them to Western Australia.

    • Nick,
      On forcing people to be tested, the Victorian Charter of Human Rights states that a person must not be “subjected to medical treatment without his or her full, free and informed consent.”
      The Age has reported a Liberty Victoria spokesman saying that he believed Victoria’s Parliament would need to pass a law allowing the Charter to be overridden if the Government wanted to make testing compulsory.(The Age, July 3)
      The same Age Report stated that Premier Andrews on the previous Sunday threatened fines for returning travellers who refused CoVid-19 tests.
      Many personal rights of Victorians have been swept away including loss of freedom of movement by citizens in the hard lockdown high rises.
      To answer your melodramatic scenario of throwing people to the ground etc., there is a compelling argument for a Legislative annulment of the relevant provision of the Charter of Human Rights, to permit compulsory testing.

      • law report on abc today
        the even OLDER laws re public health/risk DO allow for forced quarantine and testing they used them and still do for TB
        you can be sectioned for mental health issues and drugged against your will
        you can be an old age alzheimers sufferer in an aged home and forcibly vacinated and sedated medicated with NO options
        you can be a family member of an ged cre resident and FORCED to have a flu shot or banned from entry.
        ditto forced vaccines to even work there in kitchens gardening etc etc.
        plenty of precedent if they choose to useit.

        but the immigrant minorities have aLOT af abc/media pawns and bleeding heart free lawyers willing to bleat about their rights..

        • @ozspeakup “but the immigrant minorities have aLOT af abc/media pawns and bleeding heart free lawyers willing to bleat about their rights..”

          And a lot of them donate to and vote for the labor party.

      • Herbert
        Fair point
        BUT
        Why not have compulsory testing for HIV/AIDS, hepatitis, or any other disease.
        Or compulsory drug testing at music festivals, the list goes on.

        My pet hate.
        I find smoking disgusting
        100 odd people have died of covid in Australia.
        19,000 people die of smoking relating illnesses every year in Australia.
        If the government is concerned about changing laws for improving the health of the community then BAN SMOKING.
        I’ll take on anyone over this hypocrisy
        ( disclaimer – both my mother an d father have died of cigarette related cancer)

    • Nick you also do not have it correct so be careful.

      There were food shortages in the towers even good old lefty Guardian is reporting that. There were also issues with out of date food and pork being sent to muslim families.

      In most of Australia you can’t be forced except to my knowledge in Western Australia (as usual ignored by Eastern States). Section 184 of the WA emergency health act is very clear item 1 (c) and 1 (d) read it please
      http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/pha2016126/s184.html

      So yes you can be held down and forced to be swabbed or vaccinated in WA. It would probably immediately trigger a court challenge and obviously thus far has never been used.

      • Ldb
        Thanks for the link to section 184.
        After reading it and other associated clauses I don’t think it would stand up in court when enforcing a “man of the street” to be tested or held in quarantine.
        Scenario
        1. On cold morning walking from car to office, I get runny nose. Happens all the time.
        2. Policemen sees me and demands I get tested.
        3. I tell him it’s just a simple runny nose and am 100% sure it’s not covid.
        4. Policemen restrains me and forces me to be tested.
        5. I test negative for covid.
        6. I sue government big time.

        • You have been watching to much TV … you can’t sue the WA government.

          The right to proceed is a law removing the government’s immunity from suit. It was originally in the federal law by the high court has slowly eroded it. However it has never been removed from the WA state law. If you won that the action was invalid all you can do is ask for an ex-gratia payment 🙂

        • I should add under commercial law you can have legal proceedings against the WA government if you have a contract. That is the common situation you might find the WA government in court.

    • So forcing people into involuntary quarantine is OK, but forcing them to be tested can’t be done?

      I don’t know if you’re paying attention, but recent studies show lockdowns only reduce infections by 5%, whereas social distancing reduces the spread by 50%.

      Furthermore, it’s just plain stupid to quarantine healthy people who aren’t in high-risk category. The virus spreads more readily indoors, too.

    • Is Australia counting anyone with pneumonia or influenza as dying from SARS-2 if they have it? Does Australia have the deadlier strain that came out of Europe? Has Australia been through their respiratory disease season yet? Does Australia have Death Cult of Zero Worship governors of large population states that forced Covid-19 patients into nursing homes to spread it among the most vulnerable? Do you know that Tennessee has twice the population density and is surrounded by states with a much higher population density than Victoria AU and surrounding states respectively?

      Australia was 2.5% above their average death rate for January-March but those are obviously summer months. The US was 40% above average at the peak but has been below average since the beginning of June. It’s apples to oranges to compare AU to the US and will always be. Not only has AU had their entire summer to prepare for the respiratory disease season, but the medical community has had time to develop much better treatments than four months ago.

    • They’ve done well in wrecking their economy for a disease with a very low death rate and, if they manage to eliminate it, will have to keep the borders closed to prevent it from coming back.

      All they’ve really done well is prove that governments are staggeringly incompetent.

      • Exactly !! It’s absolutely tragic. Total economic impoverishment for a disease that is not dangerous and without any plausible exit strategy.

      • First time in human history we have quarantined the healthy to protect the sick. It has always been the other way around…..until now!

        • I write to refine Cam’s comment.

          First time in history, public officials FAILED to protect those KNOWN to be MOST VULNERABLE and instead HURT severely those KNOWN to be at little risk of dying.

          US, and northern European officials, KNEW from Taiwan, S. Korea, Italy & Switzerland the physical traits that render people vulnerable to dying and hospitalization FROM C19. They also KNEW healthy people 50 & younger resist well C19. They KNEW this because the traits were the same or v. similar in the early outbreak countries. Despite this knowledge, officials exposed to C19 those with comorbidities and concurrently isolated much of the rest of society.

          OZ officials should KNOW now children resist well C19, and children are unlikely to transmit C19 (due to low viral loads). So, why quarantine children? They should also KNOW high density housing INCREASES the risk of transmission; thus, locking down the towers condemned uninfected residents:-(

          Updating a bit of ancient wisdom is a good way to conclude. Reality has validated again and again the old saying: “Those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it.” The current version should be: Those who fail to heed insights gleaned from experience are deliberately mendacious.

    • No, the federal government offered ADF personal to help with monitoring the quarantine sites, Chairman Dan rejected this, instead getting normal security guards who were given minimal training to run the sites. Not only were the guards having sex with the people in quarantine they were also letting the people in quarantine out to go shopping and also allowing them to move between rooms to visit other people in quarantine, kind of defeats the whole purpose!!!!

      This is a complete and total failure by Dan Andrews, but he is trying to deflect blame yet again.

      The initial response may have been ok, but for you to say ‘Victoria in particular, have done very well’ is completely misleading, as all states, bar NSW, did better than Victoria in the number of cases and deaths and ALL states did better than Victoria in handling the quarantine process.

    • There are some good responses to Nick’s post. Others; not so much.

      Compared to most other countries, NZ and Australia have been shining examples of (what should be) the blindingly obvious, proven benefits of various levels of quarantine/isolation.

      Most of the states and territories have done quite well. Until the Cedar Meats outbreak, Victoria seemed to be one of those. That should have been the signal to review the efficacy of all other measures, particularly the overseas quarantine. Instead, it seems that the success in containing that outbreak led to a severe case of complacency.

      NSW bumbled badly early on with the Newmarch House cases and the Ruby Princess debacle, but appears to have subsequently been on top of things. The delay in closing the Victorian border, and the inexplicable notice period of that closure may well prove to be another mistake.

      The silver lining of the current situation is that it vividly demonstrates just how quickly infection numbers can increase from a low base.

  4. Not really a ‘winter surge’ – much more of an ‘Aboriginal Deaths in Custody (BLM) protest surge’.

    Notice how the weather and the 10 000 strong protest (a couple of weeks ago) are not being blamed by the Media and Political classes – but Ramadan Feasting (code for Muslims) and high density low cost housing (code for the Poor) are being blamed.

    • “Ramadan Feasting (code for Muslims) and high density low cost housing (code for the Poor) are being blamed”
      The attribution is based on extensive and vigorous contact tracing. They actually know the chains of infection, and where it is happening. You are just speculating without evidence.

      • Nick
        I think you are now speculating about the quality of their contact tracing. They”know” the chains of infection? Really? You assume they are operating with perfect knowledge, without evidence. A bit doubtful I would have thought.

      • I think you should check out some facts. The do not have any infection chain of contact for %60 percent of cases.

      • “They actually know the chains of infection, and where it is happening”

        Of the 191 cases reported today, 154 are from unknown sources.

      • So they had extensive and vigorous contact tracing… but only in hindsight.

        Face it Nick, Victoria is a dystopia run by morons.

      • Nonsense, if VIC government had that knowledge they would not have to lock-down all residents in those towers.

    • “a happy little debunker July 7, 2020 at 2:47 am

      Not really a ‘winter surge’ – much more of an ‘Aboriginal Deaths in Custody (BLM) protest surge’.”

      Something like 430 over more than 20 years, may even be closer to 30. And yet, over the same period, more white people have died in police custody in Australia.

  5. Much of the woke code used by the Victorian government and media does not make it particularly clear why the virus has spread rapidly through certain family groups in Victoria following easing of restrictions on family gatherings in late May. The easing, permitting gatherings of up to 20 family members, coincided with a certain religious celebration.

    There was also a sudden need identified to offer COVID literature in a number of languages because certain communities were getting their misinformation in their first language from social media.

    Can anyone make an informed guess on what religious celebration occurred at the end of May in 2020?

    If the virus gets into the community it is very clear that large outbreaks occur following large gatherings. That is now evident across the sunny States in the USA. Good luck USA – you will need it.

    Victoria has dopey Dan who allowed the CV19 genie out in Victoria – now isolated from the rest of Australia. US seems similarly blessed with many State Governors in the same mould as dopey Dan.

    • “If the virus gets into the community it is very clear that large outbreaks occur following large gatherings. That is now evident across the sunny States in the USA. Good luck USA – you will need it.”

      What will they need good luck for? Deaths are plummeting even as “cases” are rising due to lowering the bar for case definition and acceleration of free testing. Oh that’s right… good luck enduring all of the doomer covid face diaper cult whinging. You’re right; there are things worse than death.

      • The number of cases and the number of severe cases are two different numbers. Do we have to wonder why the number of severe cases is not reported?

        It is reported that Florida has had a large spike in cases. The reality is that only certain parts of Florida have seen this. Mainly the areas of Tampa and Miami. As our excellent Governor has been doing, he is allowing local officials to decide what is best for their areas.

    • All well and fine for someone to post that but it has Europe’s highest death toll per head of capita and it is one of the few European countries not on the green list that may enter the UK. So how well they are doing depends how you choose to measure things and there is no one answer here.

      • Look at the figures and show me where the above average death toll is please, I know the press keeps going on about it, but it is not evident in the figures.
        If you look at 6 month mortality graph, you will note that there are 23 out of the past 40 years with more deaths in the 1st 6 months of the year in Sweden
        We keep hearing about the highest death toll, either the UK or Sweden depending on who is being attacked, but whenever the stats are consulted, all these extra deaths cannot be found.
        https://hectordrummond.com/2020/06/29/this-is-what-we-shot-ourselves-in-the-foot-for/

      • It’s actually #7 on the list of European countries if one includes San Marino and Andorra.

        One might wish to examine what has happened with regard to suicides, heart attacks, cancer and other deaths, as there are multiple sides to response and impacts of that response.

      • And when it comes to a second wave next fall/winter/spring, we’ll see who is doing better by any measurement.

        • This assumes there will be a 2nd wave, how many years do we wait?
          So far no country that has had a proper 1st wave has seen a 2nd one.
          If you isolate the whole country there is no immunity.
          Only advantage is we have found control measures like HCQ + zinc are remarkably effective but only if given early, so that benefits the countries that locked down early but now need the political courage to let it spread before flu season starts.
          Depends on whether saving old people is more important then scoring points off Trump.

    • Thank you for the link – an eye-opener. Commenters should note an internal link to an even more interesting topic – Red versus Blue states. Note “posterior probability”. This means that Bayesian Statistics is alive and well in Sweden.
      https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/07/06/corona-us-republican-vs-democratic-states/
      “First, I don’t know anything about US politics, and frankly, I don’t care, but as an interesting example on data analysis, if nothing else, below is a graph showing Corona deaths_per_million, where US states are categorised into Republican vs Democratic, according to the 2016 Presidential elections:”

      The following bar chart shows posterior probability deaths per million, Republican vs. Democrat states. Two distributions do not intersect, one at about 200 deaths per million and the other at about 500 deaths per million. Guess which states are in which group.

  6. Funny to see the tower lockdown residents putting signs in their windows saying “help” after less than half a day in lockdown. Can’t stand their own company.

  7. At the start of the panidemic when infected people were dying at the high rate the infection rate is a very important metric because to die from the virus a person has to get infected in the first place. Today, the death rate is going down even in developing countries. The metric should focus on the death rate. After all if and when a vaccine is discovered and used, it will not be unusual for the positive test to go up dramatically as vaccination is basically controlled infection.
    Second, quarantine is useful if the disease has a vaccine or a cure coming or the identified infected person could be deported or simply isolated because they are few. Lock down was basically hoping the virus will die from lack of prey because the vulnerable population has been isolated long enough , or there is a cure or vaccine on the horizon. As with the case of the COVID, the vulnerable was hit and those that survived knows better than to mix with the crowd. On the other hand the bulk of the population has been deprived of work, are being scared to death by the media bombardment of the increase in infection rate and lack of social interaction. the anxiety of job loss, economic problem, social and interpersonal problems results to lower immunity and mental disorder, some health services were suspended, people were worried about seeing a doctor or going to the hospital for check up, etc. So when the lock down is removed, it is only a question of one potential source of infection could be worst than before.
    When the panicdemic is over, this would be a very good ground for research– the scare created by the media, the various levels of lock down taken by the government, the economic damage, etc.

    • I can see the effects of the lockdown all over, including in my own family. The effects are gross. Trudeau wants to be reelected in 2023. So far he has learned that giving people money is very popular. How long can he keep giving oout money for people to stay home?

    • This is going to become like climate science with every mother’s son trying to milk every aspect they can imagine.

    • If so it is the only airborne flu/ cold that is not attenuated by humidity, all other ones known on the planet are according to the link below which maintains it is much more a primarily contact spread disease similar to Norovirus or Polio.
      “.  We knew this because every single airborne (aerosol-transmitted) virus is responsive to the inverse of absolute humidity. That is, as the mean temperature rises aerosol viral infection efficiency is suppressed.  This is why we have a flu season.”
      https://market-ticker.org/cgi-mt/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker

      • Hi Mike
        No, but there were some comments in media that in the early stages they were attributing most of deaths to CV-19. In the recent weeks the increase in the death rate there has slowed down, currently it is similar to the rate of increase as recorded in Sweden or the UK.

  8. pretty sad population thats so damned useless a few days at home, or unable to go to the pub etc has them suicidal.. needing counselling and support
    wtf have we bred here -and allowed IN

    they just had a taste of shortages during lockdown
    so not ONE of these supposedly competent adults and parents kept a store of standby food or necessaray items?
    oh thats so stupid!!!
    I warned people here it might well return and not to let stocks slide thinking it was all fine.
    I may be a grumpy old lady but Im not daft;-)

  9. It staggers me that there is no real understanding that a highly contagious respiratory virus, particularly one that can be spread asymptomatically. will go right though a given population until almost everyone has been exposed to it. That will happen either fast with no quarantine or slower with good quarantine. Why is there surprise that when quarantine is lifted, there are now outbreaks. States like New York, NJ, CT and MA where the lock down was late and not good quality had the virus go though mostly by early May. Now as everyone has been exposed, the new cases are almost zero. Unlike CA that had strong lock down early and now they have a lot of cases. NZ is either going to have to be in quarantine indefinitely or be surprised when they have outbreaks.

        • Good article. I think that lock downs did more damage than just prolong the agony. In any case, the explanation of increased hospitalizations in the U.S. is a good explanation.

          It’s possible that Asian countries start from a base of even higher immunity because of prior coronavirus exposures. I hope that’s the case.

          • The Genetic Composition Of Most People Varies To Some Extent – So In This Instance The Variance In Ace-2 Receptors Can Account For The Differing Virility. However There Are Also Environmental Factors Confounding The Numbers – Such As Smokers Are Much Less Likley To Catch Covid-19, But If They Do Are More Likely To Die From It.

          • The 18% that were shown to have caught the virus on the Diamond Princess back in January were we had a perfect petri dish and were pretty much everyone was exposed to it is what got me asking questions. Seems like there are several ways that we resist it and to take anti bodies as the only one is a major mistake.

  10. The Victorian Government has been knocking down public housing towers and high density housing in the inner city parts of Melbourne for years. The public housing tower estate in lockdown is the largest remaining in Melbourne and is 5 minutes from the central business district (CBD). Before demolition, they move the residents to new urban residential housing estates, the new welfare housing is dotted through the new general public homeestates (built buy union run construction companies) located 30 to 50 kilometers from the CBD, no jobs, little public transport and upto 2 hours travel to get to where most the jobs are in the inner city.

    The Victorian Government has found the green ‘covid’ light to move residents out and demolish these housing towers.

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