Essay by Eric Worrall
“Such temporary breaches do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable” – the desperate UN push to save the Paris Agreement.
Global temperatures set to stay near record levels: UN weather agency
By Vibhu Mishra28 May 2026 Climate and Environment
The world is heading into another period of dangerous heat, a new UN report warns on Thursday, and it’s nearly certain global temperatures over the next five years will stay “at or near record levels” as climate change accelerates across land and sea.
A report produced by the UK Met Office and released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
It also found there is a 91 per cent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.
…
Such temporary breaches do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable since the accord refers to warming sustained over decades rather than individual years.
Still, the forecasts underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events.
…
Read more: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167596
How many years above 1.5C are required to liberate us from this nonsense?
I mean it was fun watching the thermometer creep slowly upwards, watching the propaganda build to a crescendo. Then global temperature suddenly spiked and upset their carefully orchestrated buildup to the world ending 1.5C climax. For a while it was funny – scientists scrambling to redefine 2.0C as the new 1.5C, before they mostly coalesced around the claim that a brief excursion doesn’t really count.
Now it’s just getting boring – it really is time to put the Paris Agreement 1.5C narrative out of its misery. So let’s hope nature obliges, and delivers a sufficient succession of warm years so we don’t have to hear or read this brief excursion nonsense ever again.
The fiction that exceeding 1.5C from the coldest period in the last 10,000 years is a tipping point was one of the most preposterous claims of climate zealots. The Holocene Thermal Optimum was an average of 2C warmer than today for 4,000 years and gave rise to human civilizations world wide. All I get is crickets or name calling from alarmists when I point this out.
They will tell you that what matters is not the temperature reached in the end, but the (obviously unprecedented) rate at which we are reaching that temperature. I am still waiting for someone to provide me with the exact thermometric record for the last several hundred thousand years. I’m not asking for much. The Phanerozoic goes back more than five hundred million years.
As for the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit, one must know where one is going, even if the path resembles a trip to the madhouse more than anything else.
“the (obviously unprecedented) rate at which we are reaching that temperature”
More fiction lying media presented as an unquestionable fact. The basis for this falsehood was a study that took the average increase in temperature coming out of the last ice age over thousands of years from course proxies and compared that rate to the modern high resolution short term instrument record. It was blatant fraud to present those two data sets as if they were equivalent.
Oh man! With the catastrophic warming that’s ravaging the planet, ice hockey will soon turn into sand hockey…
I hope so.
I can’t follow ice hockey because the puck moves at the speed of light on the ice rinks.
A sand rink would make the game far easier to follow for vision-impaired folks like me.
(Mind you, I’m vision-impaired after chugging a six-pack before the game begins 🙂 )
No one will watch, unless it has at least as many fights.
So it’s really true that ice hockey players fight each other? I thought that was exaggerated. It has to be said that hockey isn’t a very popular sport in France. We’re more focused on football/rugby (concussions are, moreover, becoming less and less rare, and Sébastien Chabal, one of our great players, no longer has any memory of his time on the field. His memory is gone.)
You’ve been reading the Babylon Bee 🙂
In sand hockey, will there be women in bikinis?
That could be worth the price of admission. 🙂
Hmm, women (assuming attractive) in bikinis knocking each others’ teeth out.
“They will tell you that what matters is not the temperature reached in the end, but the (obviously unprecedented) rate at which we are reaching that temperature.”
Even the various AIs will spit that out. And when I point out that proxies aren’t thermometers, and are typically of very low temporal resolution that wouldn’t even show 150 years of change, they are forced to backtrack to some degree.
It is a basic methodological principle in all sciences: compare like with like. It’s of biblical simplicity!
The heat dome that has lingered over Western Europe in recent days is exceptional for the season. Naturally, it fuels alarmist discourse. A climatologist from the IPCC, Christophe Cassou, used the term “black swan” in this context.
The term was not unfamiliar to me, and its meaning is fairly transparent given the image it evokes and the media context, but I preferred to check its exact definition. Very unusual does not mean impossible. There have already been periods of extreme heat in France in the 1920s or the 1940s, at the end of May. Records from the time suggest that these heatwaves were less widespread geographically, but given that the meteorological station network was also much less developed, we cannot be sure that this was truly the case.
TV-pundit climatologists claim that this heatwave was caused by an atmospheric blocking pattern. A natural cause, then. And nature is well known for being unpredictable. Immediately afterwards, they produce figures derived from models: “We know, thanks to simulations, that this kind of event has become x times more likely due to anthropogenic global warming.”
I have never heard them explain by what mechanism anthropogenic CO₂ could modify high-pressure systems. An intimidating number is easier to accept.
The 2021 Canadian heatwave also comes up again.
“These kinds of events are multiplying, you can see it!”
Me, who thought climate was averaged over thirty years.
Mon ami! Temperature here at my location in Australia was 9C at 6am on Saturday morning past and rose to 23C by 10am … am I going to die? 😉
We have compelling evidence that both the Younger Dryas termination and 25 documented Dansgaard-Oeschger (“D-O”) warming event onsets were much, much more rapid than our current modest warming trend.
Yet humans and all other species alive today (or in some cases their very immediate ancestors) survived those drastic, rapid temperature changes. So there’s no risk that the current slight warming could cause widespread extinctions, or trigger disastrous “tipping points.”
NOAA says, “The End of the Younger Dryas, about 11,500 years ago, was particularly abrupt. In Greenland, temperatures rose 10°C (18°F) in a decade (Alley 2000).”
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/3%20The%20Younger%20Dryas%20-FINAL%20NOV%20%281%29.pdf
Greenland typically gets 3× to 4× greater temperature changes than are seen in global averages, so 10°C / decade in Greenland during the YD termination equates to “only” about 3°C / decade, globally. But that’s still 20× the rate of the current gradual warming trend. Here’s an article:
https://archive.ph/aUi9R#selection-415.0-419.271 (or here)
That article is based on this study:
Christo Buizert et al. (2014), Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation. Science 345, 1177-1180. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254961
Here’s another good article:
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/17/nature-unbound-ii-the-dansgaard-oeschger-cycle/
Here’s another:
https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/abrupt-climate-change-during-the-last-ice-24288097/
Also, don’t let climate activists get away with claiming that those natural warming events were “merely regional.” The Younger Dryas Termination is generally considered to mark the start of the current Holocene interglacial. That obviously was not merely regional.
Our recent warming trend has been very slow and slight compared to those past all-natural warming events. What’s more, by all objective measures, it has been generally beneficial, not harmful.
You don’t even have to go back that far. I found ten periods in just the last 3,000 years with faster warming rates than today from the Vostok ice core reconstruction. The fastest was 2.6C in 83 years. Proxies from Greenland suggest it was global.
So even if it does continue increasing, how has it affected the human population? Has it been dropping along with life expectancy and agricultural output? Or maybe we’d be better off to have a repeat of the Little Ice Age? According to Ellsworth Huntington’s historical/scientific study Mainstreams of Civilization written in 1945, in the 14th Century Britain and Europe showed greater weather extremes than any other period in history. A number of major rivers like the Thames, Rhine and Danube stayed frozen for months because in no other century were so many cold winters recorded. In 1323 horses and sleighs were able to cross the Baltic Sea between Germany and Sweden regularly. Violent spring floods were common almost every second year; yet summer droughts were also frequent so that some rivers like the Danube could actually be forded. In addition, these extremes didn’t stop in Europe since they were recorded as far east as China. Naturally global food supplies were adversely impacted which had the guaranteed negative effect on the human population. How did all this happen without the supposed impact of too much fossil fuel use? Or maybe all this is precisely what the mainstream media and all the NGOs like the UN make certain to keep suppressed because it refutes most of their climate alarmism.
Increasing futile attempts to salvage the alarmist climate narrative. Their problem is (whether UN or MET or whomever) is that their narrative has now gone completely off the rails in so many different ways. Hit tipping point 1.5C and nothing tipped. Sea level rise didn’t accelerate. Arctic summer sea ice didn’t disappear. RCP8.5 now disappeared as ‘improbable’ when actually impossible. Germany’s Energiewende causing its economy to implode. Trump47 dismantled the Obama EPA endangerment finding—there is no danger— and will cut the EPA budget by half since ‘mission largely accomplished’.
Whatever happens,
It has nothing to do
With C-O-2.
Imperceptible. Negligible. Vanishingly weak in the proper context of dynamic energy conversion within the general circulation. The modelers know this.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1knv0YdUyIgyR9Mwk3jGJwccIGHv38J33/view?usp=sharing
That is all for now.
Was “an unrecoverable tipping point” . . . now is “a temporary excursion”.
Oh, well.
Maybe they’ll make some nice Tshirts.
I think they are already available . . . something like having the printed phrase: “That was then, this is now”
Here you go . . . commercially available now from the “big A” online store for only $18.99.
Oh, nevermind.
“unrecoverable tipping point” falls under the Department of Redundancy Department.
A game of marbles anyone?
Climate change is fuelling ‘large marble-sized’ hailstones and Europe isn’t immune
It goes without saying these people are losing their marbles.
If that happened then there’s an awful lot of solar farms put out of commission and possibly wind turbines.
The 1.5C figure is derived from linear regression using monthly temperature anomalies. ‘Pre-industrial’ is usually defined as 1850-1900, with ‘industrial’ defined as Jan 1901 onwards.
Taking the NOAA global average as an example, starting as far back as 2016 several individual months have already exceeded the 1.5C threshold; also, one individual year (2024) has exceeded 1.5C above the pre-industrial average.
But these individual values don’t push the 1901-present ‘all months’ linear trend above 1.5C. Currently (to April 2026), NOAA is at +1.23C best-estimate warming since Jan 1901. “One swallow doth not a summer make“.
The bad news is that turning around a linear global temperature trend is like turning around an aircraft carrier. Even if you switch the engine off, or go into reverse thrust, the forward momentum will tend to carry you forward for a while.
Let’s just say that the sooner you start the better. But that ain’t happening. So, as things stand, I suspect we will pass +1.5C at a canter within the next 10-years.
If only greens hadn’t killed the nuclear power industry. If everyone generated 70% of their electricity from nuclear like France, emissions would have been way down.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france
I agree with this remark. But there are not only supporters of nuclear power in France, far from it. As early as 1997, the Socialist Lionel Jospin halted the fast-neutron nuclear reactor Superphénix, in order to win over environmentalists. France was once the world leader in this technology. Now it is the Indians who are using it. Good for them! I’m not going to reproach them for not sabotaging themselves.
Macron, for his part, implemented the closure of the Fessenheim power plant, which had been refurbished and could have continued producing electricity without any problem. He initially intended to shut down 14 nuclear reactors by 2035. Fortunately, he adopted an “on the one hand, on the other hand” approach, and in the end he backed down, for the better.
Ha – one advantage France has is every time some green lunatic suggests closing the nuclear plants and going all renewable, all other French politicians have to do to stop them is point out the ongoing disaster in Spain and Germany.
If France didn’t have such a problem with “le capitalisme anglo-saxon”, they would long since have become the industrial and economic powerhouse of Europe.
Of course the irony is that France occasionally exports their excess electricity to the U.K.
I would like to live in the world you describe at the end of your comment. And I do indeed regret that what keeps us from sinking is the contemplation of our neighbors’ ruin.
Overlooking the suggestion that “the greens” were more responsible for the reduction in nuclear power generation than its high costs, construction delays and government regulations, I’ve always agreed that nuclear will have to be part of the solution.
Agreed, nuclear is inevitable. Either because of climate policy or because we run out of fossil fuel.
NOAA needs to rely on the EL NIno peaks for UAH to get anywhere near the “model” values.
Surface temperatures.. they can create whatever they like with so much totally bogus data.
You mean the adjusted surface data that, in the case of the US at least, have been warming at a slower rate that the ‘pristine’ USCRN stations over the past 21+ years?
Inconvenient truth on this platform 🙄😅
The 1.5C was made up by Schellnhuber from PIK … there’s no scientific reasoning behind it.
I though it was Pettyhummbert…
Still a totally meaningless number extracted from somewhere the SUN doesn’t shine.
1.5c was actually based on taking the length in mm [1.5mm] of Al Gore’s appendage and applying that number to the earth’s ‘temperature’.
Been stuck with it ever since, same as Gore, just stuck with it…
So, an intensive physical parameter, temperature, averaged, averaged to calculate anomalies, averaged anomalies applied to a global average, give reality? Really?
There is no global temperature.
Temperature is an intensive property.
Averaging temperatures yields a number without meaning or value. It is not data, certainly.
It is great that this site does appear to have any memory or internal consistency.
Compare: “So let’s hope nature obliges, and delivers a sufficient succession of warm years so we don’t have to hear or read this brief excursion nonsense ever again.”
with the comment from just two days ago
“In summary, it can be concluded that the modern grand solar minimum (2020-2053) predicted 10 years ago by Zharkova et al, 2015 has arrived and will progress as expected until the mid of century. There is the cold weather with huge frosts and snows recorded in January- February 2026 in the whole Northern hemisphere from the West to the East and from the North to the equator. The little ice age associated with the modern grand solar minimum is here…”
So there you have it. The coming decade will see both the next little ice age and a succession of warm years with temperatures over 1.5 degrees.
Alarmists just need to wait for the next (non-human-caused) El Nino event !
I thought so too, indeed. Then I told myself that, since skepticism is far from being monochromatic, it was only natural for its various strands to be represented on WUWT. I find that very healthy, even if it may occasionally raise an eyebrow or two. A little facial exercise can only be beneficial!
See, holding 2 thoughts in our minds at the same time, in order to mull over the merits of each proposition is what rational people can do, Izaak.
It’s only ideologues who can’t entertain competing thoughts at the same time.
That’s because ideology and rationality cannot function in the same mind space at the same time.
I think that’s kinda missing the point…..!
Expressing hope for more embarrassment for Paris Accord advocates is not the same as making an effort to predict future temperatures
In any case we’ve already caught a hint of what will happen if temperatures plummet during the pause – alarmists will start talking about heat disappearing into the ocean, masking the warming signal. Just you wait until it reappears… 🤮
Ever hear of the analysis of alternatives?
Very well observed 👍
Don’t try any serious reasoning here 😉
For a US temperature check, I went to:
https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/countries/united-states/average-temperature-by-year. The Thi and Tlo data from 1901 to 2024 is displayed in a long table. Here is the data for these two dates:
Year——–Thi——–Tlo——–Tav Temperatures are ° C.
2024——-16.8 ——4.3———10.5
1901——–14.9——-1.6———-8.2
Change—-+1.9—–+2.7——-+2.3
Thi Range: 14.7-16.8
Tlo Range: 0.7–4.3
Note that the temperature increases in the three metrics exceed the Paris Agreement of 1.5°C. However, I don’t recall any recent reports of any climate catastrophe occurring in the US.
At the above URL there is a sliding selector for acquisition of temperature data for all the countries in the NOAA database. Even if the earth warms up, it is of little consequence because for many countries there will always be long cold winters like in Canada where I live.
“there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded”
Well, yeah. When most of the weather stations reporting temperature are poorly sited in urban heat islands, the only thing that will reverse the trend of increasing temperatures is a reduction of buildings, roads, and other urban infrastructure downstream from population decline. Because what you’re really measuring is temperature increase caused by urban infrastructure increase, not “global” average temperature.
What will your explanation be if satellite based observations report a similar trend? Currently UAH supports the surface data – at least in terms of trend.
“The world is heading into another period of dangerous heat”
I seriously doubt that.
I predict that the world is definitely heading for a period of dangerous heat, in about 4 billion years when the sun becomes a red giant.
All hot weather is dangerous. All cold weather is dangerous.
Tipping point is one of those words hijacked, redefined, and repurposed to augment claims of the “runaway greenhouse effect.” The definition employed does not align with the true definition of a tipping point.
The corruption of science continues.