Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Thursday, June 11, 2020
As I discussed in a previous blog, there is little evidence of transmission of COVID-19 in outside air, with a substantial and growing literature documenting the lack of risk for virtually any activity in the outside air.
Empty parks in Seattle
But now, there is even more compelling and powerful evidence of the lack of COVID threat in outside air, even in a worse-case situation: the lack of surge in COVID cases following the large protests in Seattle and other cities.
The protests represent the opposite of responsible social distancing, with large crowds of hundreds or even thousands packed in close together.
People are screaming, chanting and singing: activities that are optimal for spraying virus-laden droplets into the air. Many, but not all, of the protesters are wearing masks, with most of them using the less effective cloth ones. And tear gas causes people to cough and expel large quantities of mucus and droplets. If you want to spread a dangerous virus, you would think the protests are the perfect way to do it!
So if COVID-19 transmission was in ANY way effective outside, one would expect a major jump in COVID-19 cases to occur.
The average period from exposure to symptoms is around 5 days and the protests started about two weeks ago–so there should be a major uptick of hospitalizations and active infections now if outdoor transmission is significant.
Has this occurred? We now know the answer: there has NOT been an upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and thus transmission outside has to be minimal to non-existent.
Let’s look at the numbers!
King County, the center of the protests, has shown no peak in hospitalizations.
The percent positive tests at the University of Washington Virology Lab is shown below. If the virus was surging the percentage would go up quickly. Instead, it went down over the period with no rapid increase during the past week (some problem occurred on May 30th).
What about other cities with protests? No spike in the percentage of positive tests at any of them (see below)
Courtesy of Willis Eschenbach
It is important to note that at this point we would expect a slow rise in the number of cases as restrictions are slowly lifted. This has nothing to do with the protests. Such a slow rise is found in epidemiological models (see below). Most people have not been exposed to the virus, but prudent social distancing and wearing of masks can keep the situation in check. Hospitals are not being overwhelmed. In fact, they are quite empty.
The bottom line of all this? With all the lack of social distancing and maximal ejection of droplets from people (from chanting, singing, screaming and dealing with pepper spray and tear gas), COVID-19 has not surged.
There is one obvious explanation for this lack of COVID uptick: viral transmission is very minimal in the outside air where there is huge ventilation, where UV radiation is present during the day, and where humidities and temperatures are generally unfavorable.
The protests have facilitated a huge public health experiment and we now know that COVID-19 basically does not spread outside. A result consistent with the research cited in my earlier blog.
But that leaves a major question: why is the City of Seattle still putting up major roadblocks for the use of their parks? Why are the parking lots of most parks closed? Why are tennis court nets taken down? Why are people being kicked out at 8 PM, being denied sunset walks at our glorious waterfront and view parks? Why is picnicking against the law? Why is the Seattle Park’s and Recreation Department ignoring scientific evidence in continuing the closures?
Please Mayor Durkan, completely open the parks. If you can let protestors roam the city in the thousands, even creating a new country on Cap Hill, can’t you let the rest of us enjoy the parks, have a picnic with our families and friends, and allow the elderly and mobility limited a chance to enjoy the parks like the rest of us? There is no place that allows better social distancing, healthful exercise and mental rejuvenation than our parks.
At Seattle Parks picnicking or stopping to enjoy the view is forbidden to normal folks.
But park personnel don’t have to follow the rules and enjoy leisurely lunches with a world class view.
Some people might conclude the park was closed. In Seattle, you have to read the fine print.
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“At Seattle Parks picnicking or stopping to enjoy the view is forbidden to normal folks.”
Who enforces that prohibition? The police can’t.
Watch the Erin Olszewski video posted above. Olszewski sounds sincere and knowledgeable throughout. There is no way that this is a hoax. Come on, people. Doesn’t it seem strange that New York City should have COVID outcomes that are so much worse than other large American cities? There must have been some factor play, and Olszewski makes a very good case for the allegation that overdiagnosis and overreliance on ventilators dramatically increased the death count from COVID-19 in New York.
I’ll just break it down very briefly” Olszewski says that half of the people diagnosed with COVID-19 did not actually have the disease. They had some other respiratory dysfunction, and many may have been having anxiety attacks caused (ironically) by fear of COVID. The protocol at Elmhurst Hospital in New York was to heavily sedate COVID patients and put them on ventilators. This causes actual lung trauma, and was fatal in 90 percent of the patients who were subjects of it. This is what caused the unusually high death toll in New York.
Olszewski, who seems like an extraordinarily brave and conscientious woman, is perfectly credible throughout. I expect this video to be suppressed very soon, as it is incendiary.
Why? just the need to ensure the masses understand (and continue to accept) that they need to be controlled. Its all for their own good.
The 12 to 22 day cyclic nature of infection simply masks the risks of Covid19 in outdoor air.
yup.
Once again if you look at the data from Korea where they chase down every transmission you will find
the vast majority are from INSIDE locations with poor ventilation.
Outside? Nothing.
HOWEVER,
you need to give it more than a couple weeks to see if there is any signal in the test data
Counfounding factors:
A) Asymptomatic cases may run north of 50%. This slows the appearance of a signal in the test data
UNLESS you are doing mass testing. As an example, We had a recent cluster in Korea that started
with 1 case on May 1st. all of the transmission didn’t show up for a month.
B) Protestors probably tended to be younger
“next”
King County, the center of the protests, has shown no peak in hospitalizations.
Wrong metric. wait 6 weeks for that
I do not agree with author at all. First results are showing after 2 weeks. So wait few days. On the other side last daily number for US was 27,000. That looks like pretty high uptick from last days 20,000 average.
“….Why Is Seattle Still Restricting Park Access?….”
…because the American Legal System will support any claim for damage – no matter how trivial and unlikely – unless the authorities can be shown to have closed services at the least threat of danger and only opened them again when either the press have moved attention away or the service is provably 100% safe….
It is even sillier than that. The WHO says “social distancing” must be no less than 1m. Many countries have implemented this policy. Some countries, UK, have set 2m. Australia it’s 1.5m. So what is the right distance?
I say it’s all bollox!
“Protests Reveal Little Threat of COVID-19 in Outside Air: Why Is Seattle Still Restricting Park Access?”
For the same reason that Vermont remains shutdown despite having the lowest incidence of mortality in the lower 48. It has nothing to do with science other than trying to use it for political agendas. The agenda is to keep as many states shut down for as long as possible in order to try and stop an economic recovery. Thus Red states are far outstripping Blue states in opening up and their economic numbers show it.
White House Adviser Kevin Hassett Discusses Growth Estimates and Red State/Blue State Divide…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/06/12/white-house-adviser-kevin-hassett-discusses-growth-estimates-and-red-state-blue-state-divide/
It’s a lot cheaper to run a park if people don’t use it. Less trash dumped for a start, less trash bins to be emptied!!